📈 Stock Analysis Tool I Use: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson 🎥 More free content: www.youtube.com/@JosephCarlsonAfterHours 🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
As a small business owner and Intuit customer for 30+ years, I can say I'm looking to get away from them as soon as possible. While they push for users to move to the online platform, it is wrought with deficiencies and not recommended by most CPAs I've spoken with including my own. He has told me point blank that going to the online platform will double the cost of my corporate tax preparation. Intuit has raised the desktop "subscription" from $199.3 for 3 years to $299, then $349, and now to $1500 per YEAR, which makes it unaffordable for many small businesses. If I posted a recent chat with their tech team, anyone reading it would be shocked at the tactics and attitude Intuit has now assumed. It's brutal and that is the reason why many like myself are so angry at Intuit. Good for the company's growth, good for investors, not so good for people who need bookkeeping software, and especially those who do not want their data exposed within an online platform. I agree with your assessment of their value going forward, but I don't think I'll be joining you. Cheers!
Hi@@Martinit0 . Unfortunately I am unable to migrate to another software and in fact have found there really aren't any desktop-based accounting aps other than QuickBooks. Joseph is correct in that it's nearly impossible to get away from them making it a solid Moat play. I HAVE to use QuickBooks Enterprise.
Just listen to what he's saying around 16-18 minute. We're just looking at the company as a neutral investor which goal is return. Of course I can understand small business owners struggling with price raises and bad service.
Intuit is not the sole cause of tax complexity. but It is one of the forces keeping it complex. Intuit is one of the loudest voices opposing tax reforms that would make it easier for taxpayers to fill out their tax returns. And they do it simply to protect their franchise, not as a byproduct of their normal business activities. That's evil. BTW, I agree with you about buy-backs. The primary risk is that companies often buy their stock at the highs rather than at the lows.
If your view is that taxes being simpler would be easier, then why not just revert to paying the full amount for each marginal tax rate that applies and declaring all of your income? It's as simple as it comes. No deductions. No Offsets. No tax avoidance strategies. Saved time. And from your perspective, evil company out of business. But you'd have to pay more taxes. The truth is that tax laws are complex because governments want money to fund their agenda and taxpayers want to reduce their tax liabilities as much as possible. So both sides hire lawyers, who nitpick laws to the nth degree. Yes, Intuit lobbying the government to not create tax software and make tax reform harder does limit accessibility, but it does not make tax more complicated or painstaking. And if by your perspective, evilness is defined as protecting your best interests, then we'd all be evil. Almost all major businesses who have the means to do so lobby the government if they can prevent unfavourable regulation.
@@glbong42 the issue is he changes his mind A LOT. But he will keep on changing to get more UA-cam views so he makes more income so he can buy more stocks so all the power to him.
@@lslurpeek People get smarter. Ideas change all the time. It takes time to develop your own strategy that you stick with. I’m sure your portfolio is perfect
Intuit Bear Case: The government isn’t just launching a free filing software, they are testing it. They will build it out. Eventually you will be required to file through Uncle Sam.
I was an intuit or TurboTax customer for over 10yrs I tried the “free tax act” tool by the fed! Tax Act was free the first time I used, last year! This year they charged me but it wasn’t $200 like TurboTax it was $30 bucks! With all the protection that comes with tax filings we will see how it goes as we move forward! I don’t hate intuit I am only looking for the best deal! Filing taxes on the internet is also very easy! a 12yr old can do it!
The argument isnt that Intuit make taxes “more complicated” through lobbying, but if it weren’t for the Free File Alliance (which Intuit is part of), the government would just file our taxes for us for free (under a certain income limit). I think you make a very solid argument, however, that all companies are “evil” in one way or another
this is literally the case in the Netherlands. Filing taxes takes like 15 minutes assuming you don't make use of complicated financial constructions or own multiple companies etc. You login with your digital ID, all information is there already and then the only thing you need to do is check it for mistakes.
$636 now. This is why you shouldn't even pay attention to P/E ratio. If you think like that, all the great businesses will always be overvalued and you end up buying garbage. Do I want to buy Intuit at this price? No, but to say it was worth $100-150 was just absurd.
I usually have the same mind set when I analyze the stocks and I love your channel. For intuit I have a totally different view (I am not invested in it) and now I am so curious to see how it is going end this. Now , without writing a long paper, I will just answer to the point the the government software is not free because it is paid by tax payers. If I am a tax payer, why should I pay twice then? I a paying anyway for a gov. made software, why should I spend more money for a private one? As I said , I was not invested and I consider the long term in this company a risk. I will follow your investment. Good “luck”!
I would agree. And as i commented last week. I agree with your thesis, that it is a company which will grow its instrinsic value in 5year timeframe. However, if you get it on top for a price way below instrinsic value…you make a killing and minimize downside risk. But your entry, even for 50% position, was close to its current instrinsic value. Your argument, if you wait long enough for compounders to grow i counter with your capital is locked and you miss on better opportunities.
@blackbirdsnoop6301 you never know when a company like Intuit will go down. If you wait for the "perfect price" you might miss out and never get into it. Personally I don't mind averaging down on a stock that I think will grow its intrinsic value over the next 5 years.
@@raymondadkins9130 exactly. And he’ll have a million excuses for the so-called good stocks with good fundamentals but performed like shit (Netflix, Alibaba, Amazon, the list goes on…)
Isn’t the more relevant question around buybacks , is the company buying their own stock because they believe they are paying less than the intrinsic value of the company. Isn’t the buyback decision supposed to be carried out like an investor would instead of just a blanket buyback policy. Shouldn’t the company concerned first visit all the capital allocation possibilities before doing buybacks. To me it seems many companies just jump on the buyback wagon because it’s the easiest thing to do. I don’t think Buffett does buybacks before considering other options with the capital they have and he certainly only does it if he thinks he is paying less than the company is worth. Are all the other CEOs doing this?
spot on. i'm not a Buffett fan, but Berkshire handles buybacks properly. Most companies just use them to inflate earnings to benefit management, not the shareholder.
Certainly! I understand that living expenses and taxes can take up a significant portion of one's income in the UK, which can limit how far that income can go. Even 100k doesn't get you very far and the dream of retiring early is starting to seem like a fairy tale. I have roughly $200,000 in 401(k) that I need to grow quickly. Please leave a comment if you can help.
@Margaret It depends on your personal preferences and comfort level. However, one option is to keep things simple and consult an investment-advisor. They can help you determine your risk appetite, avoid common mistakes, and provide a broader perspective on your investment landscape.
@@MrGravity304 I'm looking for recommendations for a reliable investment advisor who can help me develop a long-term strategy for investing approximately £5 million. Ideally, I'm hoping to achieve a 5% dividend with compounding, which would be around £250k per year.
@@Blitcliffe My personnel advisor is "NICOLE DESIREE SIMON" . In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can look her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. she has years of financial market experience.
@@MrGravity304 I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes. Thanks
Its really not easy but here in the UK, the key is to maximise your ISA and pension contributions (SIPPs). But I’ll also say consider a scalable online business to really help boost your income
I'm an accountant that lives in Australia, and it is quite simple for individuals to lodge their own tax returns through our free government provided solution. The idea to me that the most basic of tax returns cannot be prepared yourself in the U.S is mind-blowing and disturbing
That's OK, JC is still scared of it. I'm up 600% on it since I first heard it bashed here 5 years ago. But I'm a wild crazy speculator. 'Real investors' like JC strive for much much less.
as someone who lives in a country where free tax filing is the norm and paying to file taxes sounds like the worst thing to happen to an average citizen i can confidently say that the negative sentiment towards intuit is not understandable. we file our taxes through a government provided online service on the website of our version of the IRS. it sucks, it's over complicated it does everything to make things sound more complex than they are so people never really know how much they can really deduct unless they hire a professional. government provided services even if free are most likely not your friend. so yeah it's not all sunshine and rainbows in free tax filing countries. same goes to another one where i live for a few months every other year. when i looked at how taxes are done there it's pretty much the same thing. turbotax from what i've seen isn't terrible and it's a good thing it exists. people often like the idea of something and villainize companies who defy that idea that they forget to think about how the alternative would most likely be like. and that alternative might just be as complex as turbotax is but either based on their software with licensing paid to them through taxes or just easy enough to understand but you lose money by not getting back enough due to not filing it correctly.
With banks falling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing a sharp hike in interest rates, while Treasury yields are rising rapidly, meaning more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I take advantage of the current market volatility, I'm still at a crossroads deciding whether to liquidate my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Focus on two key goals. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns.
pandemic, I've been in constant contact with a CFP. It's very easy to buy into trending stocks these days, but the task is determining when to buy or sell. My adviser decides entry and exit commands on my portfolio, and I've amassed over $550k from an initial $80k reserve.
No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with a pundit by name Camille Anne Hector. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI. She is well known so you can look her up.
Found her website easily it was like the frist thing that came up when I searched on her name and also her mail address I will surely touch bases with her to see what's the best step for me to take rn. THANK YOU.
I wish taxes were simple and we did not have to file yearly like some other countries, but that’s not the case and I’m grateful for a company like Intuit that makes it simple and easier.
Intuit is a solid company but I don't know many people who establish a core position right before earnings and at a time when all the talk is regarding the debt ceiling and what happened to the market last time.
Hey Joseph, have you put any consideration into AutoZone? Conservative revenue growth near 7% over 10 years with net income and adjusted free cashflow growing 10-11% average for 10 years. They also buyback over 6% of shares per year
You got it wrong, people don't like Intuit because of tax reasoning, people don't like them because they have shady consumer practices. Example such as hiding its free filing from searches. It's not illegal, it's good business, but just shady.
never go all in before earnings. a prudent investor, that truly was value focused, may buy some before earnings, but also buy some after earnings. buying so much a week before earnings was ego driven, not value investing. saying losing 6% in a week doesn't matter is disingenuous.
there is a potential victim in buybacks , if the shares are bought back above intrinsic value the remaining shareholders are victims, if a BMW is worth 50,000 and you pay 100,000 maybe your not a victim it was your choice , but if a share is worth 50,000 and some idiot your paying megabucks to run your company buys them back at 100,000 your a victim , look at IBM s buybacks
I agree with you about intuit , but as someone who is not a fan of volatility I wonder why you would not wait until after earnings to go in? Or is it isn't soemthing that is on the radar due to being long term focussed
Before I open a position, I confirm the stock's RSI is in the neutral or oversold range, the PE is below its 5 year historical, the yield is above its 5 year historical, and the price is at or below the 50 day SMA, all while on a down day. Adhering to this can assure any short term downside is limited.
I admit, i hate intuit and texas roadhouse, got bad experiences with both. But im hiping youre right about them both. Enough money to go around without hating on others.
I would like to engage with you because I like your work and I think you’re sharp. It’s not the stock buybacks themselves that upset Congress or the media, it is the opportunity cost of the stock buybacks. In 2022 wal mart spent 9.8 billion on stock buybacks. At the end of 2022 wal mart had 1.7 million US employees. The opportunity cost of the stock buy backs is paying employees more. If wal mart spent 4.9 billion - half their buyback money- on wages they could increase the wages of the bottom HALF of their work force by about 5750 each. This is what they could do. We know a CEOs job is to maximize shareholder wealth. It is because of this that wal mart will spend 9.8 billion on stock buybacks instead of paying employees. In the same instance, it gives raises to a fraction of the top half of their employees, those c suite employees who earn stock options as compensation. I know that 5700 a year doesn’t seem like much to you, but if you work 38 hours a week at a wal mart and make $12.00 an hour that represents a 24% pay raise. When the media rails against buy backs this is what they are talking about. The opportunity cost.
As a shareholder, I want the CEO to work on my behalf, not for the employees (although I don't want them to be mistreated, of course). I don't think it's unreasonable for Walmart employees to want better working conditions, but if I were a shareholder, my interests aren't going to be aligned with theirs. I also don't think it would be a great idea to increase wages after a good earnings year, only to have to reduce them again because the earnings are cut in half the following year. That wouldn't be received very well, and rightly so. Which is why you can't really increase wages based on earnings or free cash flow.
I agree that buybacks on the whole are good. What I have a problem with is when or how the company finances the buyback, issuing corporate bonds to finance the buybacks is in my opinion not a good idea. If a company is trading at a high evaluation that in my opinion is poor allocation of capital. How would I define high evaluation? Look at the mean P/E of a company would be an easy way to accomplish this. If the company is trading above this number I as a shareholder would prefer a dividend. Remember shares can also be reissued so in a way I am suspect of buybacks at times.
Joseph, long time watcher and fan here. Sounds a little like you're letting the trolls get to you a bit in this video. Trolls are going to troll. Keep up the great videos. I look for them every week and appreciate your insight.
Joseph you say you are looking at a 5 year time horizon. Yet look how different your REIT portfolio is to just a year or 2 ago. I don't think you have ANY of those positions anymore
I have held Apple Microsoft Costco Estée Lauder Nike for over 5 years. So about half my current holdings are 5 years, and most other holdings are around 2 years or more.
What are your thoughts on MO? Strong history of paying dividends. It's at .94 now quarterly. Trading at $44. Just looking to see what your thoughts are on it.
@@dwightschrute7342 It's "big bad tobacco". They're keeping cash off the balance sheet & dispersing it to shareholders. That way they can't be targeted for having so much $$$.
So you mean it wasn’t a mistake to add into it? *pun intended*. While I can agree that Intuit is a quality business I am not 100% sure if it is really trading at a discount. A large portion of this video was you trying to defend your position. I think that is lost effort. Don’t lose focus, Joseph. Finally I think it is very ironic that Satya Natella is selling ChatGPT as if MSFT engineers came up with it. Not sure this is speaking to their approach to innovation. But that’s just my opinion. Great video as always!
Buybacks are bad only when 1) the company buyback when their stock price is overvalued 2) the company is buying back with borrowed money 3) the company do buyback to push the stock price up so that the executives earns a bigger bonus.
@@ugot1try good question. Some companies keep a low level of debt, and use only their al or partial free cash flow to do buy back. If their buy back amounts is greater than their free cash flow then they are borrowing money to do buyback. You can see it in their Cash Flow Statement.
Nothing special. We have seen the same complaints when Adobe switched to subscription, when Microsoft switched etc. You don't need to retain 100% of your customer base to come out ahead.
If you had no positions made Joe, what stocks would you be adding to? Have a top 10 or 5 list? Not seeing many deals but have to keep DCAing into faang and a few others
DCA is the way to go. Taking such big positions at one time is foolish. it's certainly contrary to value investing. It's gambling, based on ego, not a sound investment thesis.
I don’t think buybacks are bad but I do think the company should have a “ profit sharing system” so let’s say you want to buyback first you have to “profit share” 15% with employees. So if you want to do a 50 million buy back you also have to give 7.5 million as like a bonus to employees. Just an idea not saying it’s the perfect idea. Like I assume the government is going to want to tax those 7.5 too
Great video Joseph! Question, for companies that give a dividend like Microsoft for instance do you find it better to re-invest that dividend in the company or use that money elsewhere in your portfolio?
Dividends are no different than any other source of income. You should invest in whatever offers the best opportunity at the time. To put money into a company merely because it was the source of that income is just retarded.
Only cause it’s a run of the mill thing doesn’t mean it’s okay. Taxes are complex as it is and if intuit is contributing to that then they aren’t supposed to be in peoples good graces
📈 Stock Analysis Tool I Use: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
🎥 More free content: www.youtube.com/@JosephCarlsonAfterHours
🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
Your commentors were right.. Don't say we didn't warn you. Also, stop supporting evil companies
Guess they weren’t intuit
I’m glad I own $MSFT…
We all are :)
To the moon
I sold mine as I didn't realize how much I had in my 401k funds
I'm glad I got some before they went green again. But I was really looking to get more. Maybe there will be another nice pull back soon.
Should have brought NVDA instead
NVDA just decimated the shorts after hours - 28% up
As a small business owner and Intuit customer for 30+ years, I can say I'm looking to get away from them as soon as possible. While they push for users to move to the online platform, it is wrought with deficiencies and not recommended by most CPAs I've spoken with including my own. He has told me point blank that going to the online platform will double the cost of my corporate tax preparation. Intuit has raised the desktop "subscription" from $199.3 for 3 years to $299, then $349, and now to $1500 per YEAR, which makes it unaffordable for many small businesses. If I posted a recent chat with their tech team, anyone reading it would be shocked at the tactics and attitude Intuit has now assumed. It's brutal and that is the reason why many like myself are so angry at Intuit. Good for the company's growth, good for investors, not so good for people who need bookkeeping software, and especially those who do not want their data exposed within an online platform. I agree with your assessment of their value going forward, but I don't think I'll be joining you. Cheers!
Interesting. Would you care to tell us which other accounting software you plan to use?
Hi@@Martinit0 . Unfortunately I am unable to migrate to another software and in fact have found there really aren't any desktop-based accounting aps other than QuickBooks. Joseph is correct in that it's nearly impossible to get away from them making it a solid Moat play. I HAVE to use QuickBooks Enterprise.
Just listen to what he's saying around 16-18 minute. We're just looking at the company as a neutral investor which goal is return. Of course I can understand small business owners struggling with price raises and bad service.
Intuit is not the sole cause of tax complexity. but It is one of the forces keeping it complex. Intuit is one of the loudest voices opposing tax reforms that would make it easier for taxpayers to fill out their tax returns. And they do it simply to protect their franchise, not as a byproduct of their normal business activities. That's evil.
BTW, I agree with you about buy-backs. The primary risk is that companies often buy their stock at the highs rather than at the lows.
If your view is that taxes being simpler would be easier, then why not just revert to paying the full amount for each marginal tax rate that applies and declaring all of your income? It's as simple as it comes. No deductions. No Offsets. No tax avoidance strategies. Saved time. And from your perspective, evil company out of business.
But you'd have to pay more taxes.
The truth is that tax laws are complex because governments want money to fund their agenda and taxpayers want to reduce their tax liabilities as much as possible. So both sides hire lawyers, who nitpick laws to the nth degree. Yes, Intuit lobbying the government to not create tax software and make tax reform harder does limit accessibility, but it does not make tax more complicated or painstaking.
And if by your perspective, evilness is defined as protecting your best interests, then we'd all be evil. Almost all major businesses who have the means to do so lobby the government if they can prevent unfavourable regulation.
I like how you stand with your thesis and do not influence your decisions based on comments. Good on you.
Stand on his thesis? If you see some of his videos from a year ago there are drastically different holdings to now
@@lslurpeek changing his mind is okay. But standing on what he currently believes on is what I am saying here.
@@glbong42 the issue is he changes his mind A LOT. But he will keep on changing to get more UA-cam views so he makes more income so he can buy more stocks so all the power to him.
@@lslurpeek what's wrong about changing his mind, especially if the original thesis is not valid anymore?
@@lslurpeek People get smarter. Ideas change all the time. It takes time to develop your own strategy that you stick with. I’m sure your portfolio is perfect
Intuit Bear Case: The government isn’t just launching a free filing software, they are testing it. They will build it out. Eventually you will be required to file through Uncle Sam.
Can you give your insights on Paypal? Its free cash flow yield is 7% and even with sbc around 5%. Its also had major selloff aswell thx
I was an intuit or TurboTax customer for over 10yrs I tried the “free tax act” tool by the fed! Tax Act was free the first time I used, last year! This year they charged me but it wasn’t $200 like TurboTax it was $30 bucks! With all the protection that comes with tax filings we will see how it goes as we move forward! I don’t hate intuit I am only looking for the best deal! Filing taxes on the internet is also very easy! a 12yr old can do it!
The argument isnt that Intuit make taxes “more complicated” through lobbying, but if it weren’t for the Free File Alliance (which Intuit is part of), the government would just file our taxes for us for free (under a certain income limit). I think you make a very solid argument, however, that all companies are “evil” in one way or another
>all companies are “evil” in one way or another
based anti-capitalist
this is literally the case in the Netherlands. Filing taxes takes like 15 minutes assuming you don't make use of complicated financial constructions or own multiple companies etc.
You login with your digital ID, all information is there already and then the only thing you need to do is check it for mistakes.
I might be interested in buying intuit at $200-225 but it is just hilariously overpriced right now
my buy price is 100 to 150, according to my discount cash flow analysis
@@Allen-L-Canada Intuit is a laughable stock at these current levels.
@@darkshadow955 i agree. We need to buy quality stock at a fair price or an undervalued price with a margin of safety, not at any price.
@@Allen-L-Canadawhat stocks are on your radar now?
$636 now. This is why you shouldn't even pay attention to P/E ratio. If you think like that, all the great businesses will always be overvalued and you end up buying garbage. Do I want to buy Intuit at this price? No, but to say it was worth $100-150 was just absurd.
How into it are you?
I usually have the same mind set when I analyze the stocks and I love your channel. For intuit I have a totally different view (I am not invested in it) and now I am so curious to see how it is going end this. Now , without writing a long paper, I will just answer to the point the the government software is not free because it is paid by tax payers.
If I am a tax payer, why should I pay twice then? I a paying anyway for a gov. made software, why should I spend more money for a private one?
As I said , I was not invested and I consider the long term in this company a risk. I will follow your investment.
Good “luck”!
I bought INTU years ago on a dip at 204.00 Holding.
I was surprised you added right before earnings. I tend to avoid earnings volatility
I’ve built about half my position. I want to add another 15-20k.
I would agree. And as i commented last week. I agree with your thesis, that it is a company which will grow its instrinsic value in 5year timeframe. However, if you get it on top for a price way below instrinsic value…you make a killing and minimize downside risk. But your entry, even for 50% position, was close to its current instrinsic value. Your argument, if you wait long enough for compounders to grow i counter with your capital is locked and you miss on better opportunities.
So, what was your “big mistake”?…
@@jorged4763 That's just title bait
@blackbirdsnoop6301 you never know when a company like Intuit will go down. If you wait for the "perfect price" you might miss out and never get into it. Personally I don't mind averaging down on a stock that I think will grow its intrinsic value over the next 5 years.
hmm, I don't see NVDA in your growth port. :(
it's a speculative hyped stock in his opinion
@@darekaushi +25K, says otherwise, even with several short sighted mistakes along the way.
@@karlbe8414no it does not. Its decoupled from fundamentals at this point
@@darekaushi every company he doesn't understand, every boat he misses = speculative hype.
@@raymondadkins9130 exactly. And he’ll have a million excuses for the so-called good stocks with good fundamentals but performed like shit (Netflix, Alibaba, Amazon, the list goes on…)
Isn’t the more relevant question around buybacks , is the company buying their own stock because they believe they are paying less than the intrinsic value of the company. Isn’t the buyback decision supposed to be carried out like an investor would instead of just a blanket buyback policy. Shouldn’t the company concerned first visit all the capital allocation possibilities before doing buybacks. To me it seems many companies just jump on the buyback wagon because it’s the easiest thing to do. I don’t think Buffett does buybacks before considering other options with the capital they have and he certainly only does it if he thinks he is paying less than the company is worth. Are all the other CEOs doing this?
spot on. i'm not a Buffett fan, but Berkshire handles buybacks properly. Most companies just use them to inflate earnings to benefit management, not the shareholder.
Buying high is your mistake Joseph
yep. all ego driven. I like that company, so I can pay any price. if it goes down, I just say the market is wrong. I'm still right. buy my software.
Do you think going to college is better than working and learning a trade?
Certainly! I understand that living expenses and taxes can take up a significant portion of one's income in the UK, which can limit how far that income can go. Even 100k doesn't get you very far and the dream of retiring early is starting to seem like a fairy tale. I have roughly $200,000 in 401(k) that I need to grow quickly. Please leave a comment if you can help.
@Margaret It depends on your personal preferences and comfort level. However, one option is to keep things simple and consult an investment-advisor. They can help you determine your risk appetite, avoid common mistakes, and provide a broader perspective on your investment landscape.
@@MrGravity304 I'm looking for recommendations for a reliable investment advisor who can help me develop a long-term strategy for investing approximately £5 million. Ideally, I'm hoping to achieve a 5% dividend with compounding, which would be around £250k per year.
@@Blitcliffe My personnel advisor is "NICOLE DESIREE SIMON" . In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can look her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. she has years of financial market experience.
@@MrGravity304 I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes. Thanks
Its really not easy but here in the UK, the key is to maximise your ISA and pension contributions (SIPPs). But I’ll also say consider a scalable online business to really help boost your income
Buybacks from profits are fine, taking on debt to buy back stock and keep your share price inflated not so much.
It’s all situational
Did it really sell down 7% because it missed guidance by a really small margin? I dont belive that
Believe it friend
Welcome to the "market"
Joseph, have you ever used a DCF Model to invest?
Intuit is a classic example of don’t hate the player, hate the game.
Hate the illegal tax system and the players too.
@@dogelife7901 im sorry you lost your life savings in an imaginary dog coin.
Microsoft is noticeably missing from ARKK when it's doing one of the most disruptive things in history
MSFT is not speculative enough…and it’s profitable so it doesn’t qualify.
I'm an accountant that lives in Australia, and it is quite simple for individuals to lodge their own tax returns through our free government provided solution. The idea to me that the most basic of tax returns cannot be prepared yourself in the U.S is mind-blowing and disturbing
total capitalism
Why did you buy MasterCard and not Visa ?
Oh no! I'm down 2% on Vici and 3% on John Deere holdings, terrible companies! 😢 (Ima dca down if they keep dropping)
ok ok, we already know you can't beat the S&P with all your fancy analysis
Great transparency Joe, great video
I made a mistake of not owning Nvidia years ago
That's OK, JC is still scared of it. I'm up 600% on it since I first heard it bashed here 5 years ago. But I'm a wild crazy speculator. 'Real investors' like JC strive for much much less.
as someone who lives in a country where free tax filing is the norm and paying to file taxes sounds like the worst thing to happen to an average citizen i can confidently say that the negative sentiment towards intuit is not understandable. we file our taxes through a government provided online service on the website of our version of the IRS. it sucks, it's over complicated it does everything to make things sound more complex than they are so people never really know how much they can really deduct unless they hire a professional. government provided services even if free are most likely not your friend. so yeah it's not all sunshine and rainbows in free tax filing countries. same goes to another one where i live for a few months every other year. when i looked at how taxes are done there it's pretty much the same thing. turbotax from what i've seen isn't terrible and it's a good thing it exists. people often like the idea of something and villainize companies who defy that idea that they forget to think about how the alternative would most likely be like. and that alternative might just be as complex as turbotax is but either based on their software with licensing paid to them through taxes or just easy enough to understand but you lose money by not getting back enough due to not filing it correctly.
Not the flames Joseph!
With banks falling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing a sharp hike in interest rates, while Treasury yields are rising rapidly, meaning more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I take advantage of the current market volatility, I'm still at a crossroads deciding whether to liquidate my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Focus on two key goals. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns.
pandemic, I've been in constant contact with a CFP. It's very easy to buy into trending stocks these days, but the task is determining when to buy or sell. My adviser decides entry and exit commands on my portfolio, and I've amassed over $550k from an initial $80k reserve.
Can you leave your finanncial planner information and how i can reach out to her here? I need it badly.
No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with a pundit by name Camille Anne Hector. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI. She is well known so you can look her up.
Found her website easily it was like the frist thing that came up when I searched on her name and also her mail address I will surely touch bases with her to see what's the best step for me to take rn. THANK YOU.
shoulda bought nvda
I wish taxes were simple and we did not have to file yearly like some other countries, but that’s not the case and I’m grateful for a company like Intuit that makes it simple and easier.
NVDA finally made me some REAL returns, time to sell though because this peak euphoria
Intuit is a solid company but I don't know many people who establish a core position right before earnings and at a time when all the talk is regarding the debt ceiling and what happened to the market last time.
nailed it. no prudent investor would. they would DCA.
Of course you made a huge mistake, Joseph. You didn't buy Palantir! 😉
Hey Joseph, have you put any consideration into AutoZone? Conservative revenue growth near 7% over 10 years with net income and adjusted free cashflow growing 10-11% average for 10 years. They also buyback over 6% of shares per year
I'm curious why you aren't adding to your RR positions since they are dipping. You like Intuit more than them? Thanks, and great videos!
I love your videos! This just happened to me with ulta beauty, but I'm confidence in it's long term prospects.
Intuit is ripe to be destroyed, mimicked or bought out. Why did you go balls deep with them? Everyone knew this was a bad idea Joseph!
I can't wait to show this comment in a year, I've agreed with all your other picks except this one. This one just isn't it Joseph.
Yeah...
Not the last one
You got it wrong, people don't like Intuit because of tax reasoning, people don't like them because they have shady consumer practices. Example such as hiding its free filing from searches. It's not illegal, it's good business, but just shady.
Think intuit is overvalued. It’s not really an attractive risk-reward proposition.
Misleading headline. If you love the company you should love it more with a 5% discount
Rule #1 Never buy-in before earnings.
never go all in before earnings. a prudent investor, that truly was value focused, may buy some before earnings, but also buy some after earnings. buying so much a week before earnings was ego driven, not value investing. saying losing 6% in a week doesn't matter is disingenuous.
that costco bad comment was a bit of a stretch XD
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there is a potential victim in buybacks , if the shares are bought back above intrinsic value the remaining shareholders are victims, if a BMW is worth 50,000 and you pay 100,000 maybe your not a victim it was your choice , but if a share is worth 50,000 and some idiot your paying megabucks to run your company buys them back at 100,000 your a victim , look at IBM s buybacks
I agree with you about intuit , but as someone who is not a fan of volatility I wonder why you would not wait until after earnings to go in?
Or is it isn't soemthing that is on the radar due to being long term focussed
it was ego. no prudent investor would take such a large position a week before earnings.
Before I open a position, I confirm the stock's RSI is in the neutral or oversold range, the PE is below its 5 year historical, the yield is above its 5 year historical, and the price is at or below the 50 day SMA, all while on a down day. Adhering to this can assure any short term downside is limited.
I admit, i hate intuit and texas roadhouse, got bad experiences with both. But im hiping youre right about them both. Enough money to go around without hating on others.
Platinum group metals. My favorite long term holding currently.
AI will eat intuit’s lunch soon
I would like to engage with you because I like your work and I think you’re sharp. It’s not the stock buybacks themselves that upset Congress or the media, it is the opportunity cost of the stock buybacks. In 2022 wal mart spent 9.8 billion on stock buybacks. At the end of 2022 wal mart had 1.7 million US employees. The opportunity cost of the stock buy backs is paying employees more. If wal mart spent 4.9 billion - half their buyback money- on wages they could increase the wages of the bottom HALF of their work force by about 5750 each. This is what they could do.
We know a CEOs job is to maximize shareholder wealth. It is because of this that wal mart will spend 9.8 billion on stock buybacks instead of paying employees. In the same instance, it gives raises to a fraction of the top half of their employees, those c suite employees who earn stock options as compensation.
I know that 5700 a year doesn’t seem like much to you, but if you work 38 hours a week at a wal mart and make $12.00 an hour that represents a 24% pay raise.
When the media rails against buy backs this is what they are talking about. The opportunity cost.
that's economic ignorance.
As a shareholder, I want the CEO to work on my behalf, not for the employees (although I don't want them to be mistreated, of course). I don't think it's unreasonable for Walmart employees to want better working conditions, but if I were a shareholder, my interests aren't going to be aligned with theirs.
I also don't think it would be a great idea to increase wages after a good earnings year, only to have to reduce them again because the earnings are cut in half the following year. That wouldn't be received very well, and rightly so. Which is why you can't really increase wages based on earnings or free cash flow.
Hair to hair
I agree that buybacks on the whole are good. What I have a problem with is when or how the company finances the buyback, issuing corporate bonds to finance the buybacks is in my opinion not a good idea. If a company is trading at a high evaluation that in my opinion is poor allocation of capital. How would I define high evaluation? Look at the mean P/E of a company would be an easy way to accomplish this. If the company is trading above this number I as a shareholder would prefer a dividend. Remember shares can also be reissued so in a way I am suspect of buybacks at times.
Joseph, long time watcher and fan here. Sounds a little like you're letting the trolls get to you a bit in this video. Trolls are going to troll. Keep up the great videos. I look for them every week and appreciate your insight.
4:21 I was listening to this on the side while working, and I misheard the word "trader" as "traitor", and I burst out laughing.
i heard traitor too.
can you do reviews on companies you down own anymore but you used to? like at&t or jepi
Joseph you say you are looking at a 5 year time horizon. Yet look how different your REIT portfolio is to just a year or 2 ago. I don't think you have ANY of those positions anymore
I have held Apple Microsoft Costco Estée Lauder Nike for over 5 years.
So about half my current holdings are 5 years, and most other holdings are around 2 years or more.
@@JosephCarlsonShow I just looked at your current REIT holding and was a little shocked vici is the only one...
NLY
@@Coda1850 RITM, WELL, LTC, SPG, O!
You did a poor job breaking down how many times Microsoft said AI in their presentation....😂
You always take the bait, don't you
Another huge mistake u made is not buying nvda or tesla in the low $100s lol
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judging result based on 5 days are likely the swing TRADERs:)
buying such a large amount the week before earnings is pure gambling, not investing.
I don't touch Intuit because this industry is far from my circle of competence.
What are your thoughts on MO? Strong history of paying dividends. It's at .94 now quarterly. Trading at $44. Just looking to see what your thoughts are on it.
I'm building my position, has a great moat and good value, huge growing dividend
Payout ratio is kinda high at 76%. 5 year CAGR is decent at 7%.
@@dwightschrute7342 They target an 80% payout ratio. Read the 10k.
@@Coda1850 wasn’t aware. Thanks for the insight. Curious though why would they target such a high payout ratio?
@@dwightschrute7342 It's "big bad tobacco". They're keeping cash off the balance sheet & dispersing it to shareholders. That way they can't be targeted for having so much $$$.
Intuit isn’t showing up in your growth or dividend portfolio pie, Joseph? Your videos are, in my opinion, some of the best on YT.
Intuit does super much dilution.
So you mean it wasn’t a mistake to add into it? *pun intended*.
While I can agree that Intuit is a quality business I am not 100% sure if it is really trading at a discount. A large portion of this video was you trying to defend your position. I think that is lost effort. Don’t lose focus, Joseph.
Finally I think it is very ironic that Satya Natella is selling ChatGPT as if MSFT engineers came up with it. Not sure this is speaking to their approach to innovation. But that’s just my opinion.
Great video as always!
Like your videos. Some grammatical errors not treat them horrible but treat them horribly
Love intuit. But was hesitant since the government is putting out a free tax software.
I added in to it
INTU = Sin Stock
Buybacks are bad only when 1) the company buyback when their stock price is overvalued 2) the company is buying back with borrowed money 3) the company do buyback to push the stock price up so that the executives earns a bigger bonus.
Almost all of these companies have debt that they could pay off. So wouldn't they almost always be buying back with "borrowed" money?
@@ugot1try good question. Some companies keep a low level of debt, and use only their al or partial free cash flow to do buy back. If their buy back amounts is greater than their free cash flow then they are borrowing money to do buyback. You can see it in their Cash Flow Statement.
I don't think anyone should trade until we know the outcome of the debt ceiling talks.
It's high. It'll get higher
You’re investing in a large company with a very high P/E. That is not value investment either
How are you investing so much money at a time? 24k in 5 days?
I started buying in on apple and Microsoft
Why did Terry Smith sell Intuit? And have you stopped taking inspiration from him?
Only bought Intuit after the 13F filings showed the big investors bought it. How novel.
Lmaooooo
There will be resistance to SAAS model going forward, that is just milking customers for the most part.
Nothing special. We have seen the same complaints when Adobe switched to subscription, when Microsoft switched etc. You don't need to retain 100% of your customer base to come out ahead.
We'll have to start calling joseph tongue and cheek carlson. Whatever his click bake you can count on it being just the Opposite.
Intuit BAD
Now Inuit is a great buy. I can get better cost basis than Joseph Carlson - easy win
Hey, it can't go any lower, right? 🤔
If you had no positions made Joe, what stocks would you be adding to? Have a top 10 or 5 list? Not seeing many deals but have to keep DCAing into faang and a few others
DCA is the way to go. Taking such big positions at one time is foolish. it's certainly contrary to value investing. It's gambling, based on ego, not a sound investment thesis.
INTU was $716 back in late 2021. will you tell those people bought into it then the same thing, just stomach it?
lol, right. I know the company has value, the market is wrong. I'm comfortable losing money because, dammit, I'm right.
I don’t think buybacks are bad but I do think the company should have a “ profit sharing system” so let’s say you want to buyback first you have to “profit share” 15% with employees. So if you want to do a 50 million buy back you also have to give 7.5 million as like a bonus to employees.
Just an idea not saying it’s the perfect idea. Like I assume the government is going to want to tax those 7.5 too
retarded idea.
Great video Joseph! Question, for companies that give a dividend like Microsoft for instance do you find it better to re-invest that dividend in the company or use that money elsewhere in your portfolio?
He distributes it.
Dividends are no different than any other source of income. You should invest in whatever offers the best opportunity at the time. To put money into a company merely because it was the source of that income is just retarded.
Capitalism is about making money not about ethics. Companies are never on your side unless you're a shareholder
There are so many critizism on your holding stocks :) The only one criticism I agree with is the VICI, which indeed is promoting gambling.
I find nothing wrong with a tax on the greedy mathematically incompetent. It's actually the only good ticker this channel made me aware of.
So where is your huge mistake?????
and look at the price of Intuit now... sitting at $604.92 - well played Joseph :)
I’m buying more into big tech Apple, Microsoft Tesla
If you put a comma of an investment, over a 5 day period. You don't know when to use a comma.
Only cause it’s a run of the mill thing doesn’t mean it’s okay. Taxes are complex as it is and if intuit is contributing to that then they aren’t supposed to be in peoples good graces