Deep Dive 09/07/2024 - Extremes in the USA, any impact on the UK - Met Office weekly forecast UK
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- Опубліковано 8 лип 2024
- This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Why has July been so wet and could things change next week?. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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If it rains for forty days and forty nights, should we be gathering our pets in pairs and begin buying a lot of timber? 🌧️ ☔
The best weather presenter by a mile . Nice one Alex
The UK has a temperate climate, mild winters & mild summers. Sometimes we are lucky & have a few hot spells during the summer months but mostly we don't. Thankfully, we also don't see anywhere near as much snow & bitter cold as mainland Europe in the winter.
even my cats are fed up with the rain
MY white cats are squeeeeeeky CLEAN .
You should make a new concept/segment in the deep dive where you look at what actually happened and compare it to the models you had from a week or 2 ago, be cool to see how correct or incorrect some models might've been.
Yeah there's not enough of this
I don't think you are quite down with Super Computers, Have you ever heard of Alan Turin, ???
i like the idea , although the starting point has to be defined , been my experience often multiple forecast for same day as time goes by
I'm surprised there is not already hose-pipe ban in the UK...
So last summer didnt really happen. Just a couple of hot blips. Then it rained almost non stop from september till may. With the exception of western scotland may was cold and grim for everyone else and now this summer was a 3 day warm bit before more rain. Deep joy
England is very lucky, always cool and rainy👍☔️ We are very unlucky in the Mediterranean, it is extremely hot and humid.😡🔥
Probably the most dreary summer I can remember, and that's in a nation (UK), where dreary summers are the norm!
Thank you, Alex, this week! Also, Aiden, Alex Burkhill, and Annie for your amazing work. Watched all Deep Dives and 10 Day Trends. Always look forward to them every week ❤!
Thank you
hello Alex thank you for this week and I like the deep Dives and I like watching them
Am I correct in thinking that the last year, July'23 to June'24, has been one of the least sunny on record? I am approaching 75yo and cannot remember such a lack of insolation here in Surrey. As witnessed by my garden where, so far, I have only about half the flowers of this time last year, which was about average.
Interesting suggestion, I'll ask our stats folks take a look
Whereabouts I'm Surrey are you?
@@sammuddel7751 GU19, about a km from Berkshire!
This is ridiculous. I'm still wearing jumpers. This is not summer!
same here. I wore my xmas jumper the other day. I have also bought some summer clothes ie more rain coats
I am 44 and its the coldest summer by quite some distance where i live Scottish highlands barely 10 degree some days late june early july
I’ve been watching the Ospreys: cold weather drives fish deeper & harder to catch. Two chicks rescued from Arkaig to be relocated in Spain because even their experienced parents weren’t managing to feed them well enough. Wild haggis are probably toughing it out in their burrows: hope they make it through to February 🤞🏽🤞🏽 😊
In 1985 our rain gauge in Ayrshire got 7" of rain in July , 8 " in August and 9 " in September. Wrecked everything on the farm. Then we had three weeks of warm dry weather in October.
I appreciate your/teams' work/efforts, as always, and Thank you.
Good health to you all. Have a good day.
Thank you, Met Office! I find these videos fascinating 😁.
Dear British Summer, I am considering asking for my money back...🤔....unless... hmmm !
Thank you so much, this is an amazing channel for gardeners and growers across the UK
No matter how great you paint it Alex our weather has been atrocious, for the most part. We don’t have heat or sun it’s cold it’s wet and we’re fed up with it. Can we not shift the jet stream ? It’s not normal for this time of year surely? It’s baking in the med. I’d love some of that warmth and sunshine. It’s fuelling my depression this weather. I’d be heading to the airport for hot weather if I could afford it😊
There presentations are incredibly well done. Thank you!
Yes, I love the deep dives looking at weather around the world. Please keep doing it. There is so much fascinating stuff going on.
July has been wetter than an otters pocket
😮
😂
Hottest July on record
I like it 😄
😆
This summer has been a shambles Alex, yet again, just like last july, ever since the 40c we had in 2022 last 2 julys have been embarrassing.
In my option, summer is over. Had enough.
This time last year it was 35-40 degrees if i remember correctly
@@brunodacruz5402 no, 2022.
Exactly my thoughts, If I was a lot younger I would seriously consider emigrating.
Got my winter wooly jumpers out again, well never really put them away properly yet this year, 🤗
Hello, yes I like to order one heat dome for the UK please? Thank you 😂
Now all the people who live in london & the southeast know how the rest of the uk & ireland feel most summers while you're having strawberries & cream & wombling around at Wimbledon. 😂
These videos are always so interesting, thanks Met Weather team ☀️
Thankyou Alex for an interesting look at our weather, and what’s happening in the states. Love these deep dive videos ❤️❤️
Thank you for watching 😄
I have never seen as few flies or even the humble ladybird
Since April.
I live in rural area we should have moth mania not a flutter
In the evening or on ceiling.😂
My cousin sent me photographs from the Cayman Islands some serious damage. To his house and neighbourhood.
I think it will be mid August till we get our 2/3 weeks of reseanoble weather.
Hope springs eternal
Thundering here in Ireland.
Radiation. All life is being killed.
My lavender plants with lots of flowers had no bees on them at all the other day which was dry and fairly sunny ... very unusual
@@DavidRobinson-uv2ov
Actually we have lots of bees but Hoverflies are really scarce
They are a massive pollinators.
Why is jet stream so far south shifted? I understand that being on the wrong side of the jet stream brings the lows and wet but this time of year (strength of sun and warmth) the jet stream is (usually) further north.
Physics.
@@callumglass Thanks for the most unhelpful answer in the history of the internet. Do you work for NASA? Q. What causes black holes? A: Physics. Q. Why causes Gravity? A. Physics.
@@matthawkins2847 it can be a number of factors I think, you can look it up. Should be a lot of information
Jet stream not on our side this year. We needed some rain, but it never knows when to stop when it starts.
Thank you for that. Really enjoyed it. Running for MNDA in a Lake District 100km race on Saturday. That sort of detail has really helped me prepare. 👍🏼👍🏼
The temperature today in East London has been pleasant enough but the rain and the humidity is simply too much. 😒
Alex’s Deep Dives are just the most entertaining! Thanks so much - my husband and I love nerding out over the Deep Dives
Booked a holiday to Santorini, Greece because we are sick to death of the British weather, it is so foul. It is July but it feels more like October.
Pretty sure this setup is virtually the same as last year 🙄
We had a longer hot spell in June last year
@@metoffice Yes but here in the South West it hasn't stopped raining since last August!
@@susanwallis7249that’s true. Been awful
@@susanwallis7249June was dry for all of England and wales
@@susanwallis7249 June was a dry month so you should've had some time without rain
I remember a huge downpour at Wimbledon ( pre roof era , 1980s I think) when there were cascades of water shown on TV coming down through the seating. The camera zoomed in on a commentary box with Americans miming swimming motions.
I'll settle for a week of summer at this point!
Me too!
If you ask me the temperature is perfect , 15 to 20 degrees not too hot , definitely not that horrible humidity that everything stick to you and you sweat every time you move , I absolutely hate that , still don’t understand what people love about it , I find the humidity the most unpleasant, uncomfortable weather the U.K. has .roll
On the autumn and the darkness .
Depressingly accurate. Why do we live in the UK!!
What on Alcatraz island , because we are prisoners of the elite.
Because the only time the Earth moves under your feet as the song goes, it because you made that happen,😂😂😂
Because our country is beautiful!
@@janjohnson3414 when it's not pouring with rain
@alinaqirizvi1441 That's why it is beautiful and green.
Perfect climate 👌
The temperatures at this time of year should be 25-32 particularly in London areas.
17-22 is what you would expect in late march early to mid April.
This time last year temperatures was in 25-32 rage.
So it is very poor and disappointing. Hopefully there will be change soon.
I checked the temperatures in France, Italy and Germany and it is 5-10 degrees higher than it is in the uk.
The warn area is in Italy, Germany,spain and Portugal and once the jet stream needs go back up.
6:13 look at the dark reds on the right hand side if that comes across the temptrures will hit 25-33
thank you Alex, this was the same as last year July
So basically we can kiss goodbye for a decent summer this July 😞
Not really. It might return in September or late August again. Like what happened last year
Thank you Alex, love the deep dives☀️🌩⛅️
Thank you
Thank you Alex always fascinating. Always look forward to your deep dives and 10 days trends. I’m looking forward to be a little dryer but hopefully not 30 degrees. Keep them coming 😊
A south-shifted jet stream has been a common theme in forecasts for a long time, it seems to be the 'new normal'
Many thanks for this , looking forward to the summer weather warming up…..
I wait all year for the summer, my favourite things are all outdoor pursuits 🙁 I enjoyed the deep dive though Alex , the satellite images of storm Beryl were amazing 👍🏻
thanks for the international updates much appreciated
Hello and thanks for your Deep Dive videos, which I'm happy to see appear on my feed every week. Since you're heavily insisting for comments (!), here is mine : I especially enjoy when you provide scientific explanations (simplified explanations) for meteorological phenomena. I'm not so keen on physics but in a way I enjoy learning about why this parameter will combine with this other to explain why there's this type of weather. I like the "Eureka" moment when I understand what's going on in the sky. Keep it up !
I am sick of the rain
Will this be known as the year without a summer ?
Last year we had no summer and no one claimed it
We're only half way through - too early for that!
@@metofficetrue we are However we and you may aswell say it is because it’s July and it’s still not hot it usually start mid as I’m the middle of June didn’t get that end of June we usually get that didn’t get that start mid and end of July either didn’t get that if not wouldn’t be surprised/surprising if we didn’t get that even then smh 🤦♂️😔😒😡😂
@@Jamesthesnail There was a four-week period of warm and dry weather last year from late May until late June. There was another week of that kind fo weather in early September too. That was it though.
The forecast was bang on for today in the North West. We've had rain pretty much all morning and then it cleared up around midday. I noticed around 3pm it felt extremely humid and warm. Then it started thundering and throwing it down around 9pm.. Good job on that one :)
We Urgently need it to dry up soon, a lot of talk from UK farmers, that it'll be too wet to ripen & harvest the crops in a few weeks time.
The weather patterns are certainly weird this year, look at how far south the jetstream is, it needs to be at least a 1,000 miles further north for us to get some warmth & rainless days!
Watching from holiday in sunny Mallorca. I’m always interested in seeing how Europes weather is doing along with the UK, especially as it seems they do not have any forecast videos or anything like we have in the UK. It’s always interesting to see how the atmosphere above the Uk could be affecting southern Europe or causing the large storms over northern Italy which appear to be quite prone to large hail, occasional tornados and general severe weather when all the ingredients come together.
As always, enjoying the content and look forward to seeing more. Thanks!
How has the northern jet stream changed in relation to global warming Alex? Is it still typical of say 50 years ago, these deep dips, the shapes and loops? I find that most fascinating as it truly is what drives our weather…. 💁🏻♂️
Good question. How climate change affects the jet is a really big topic in research at the moment. There are a few theories but one strong one is that it could cause the jet to meander more, generating more extremes of wet spells and hot spells, far from confirmed though.
@@metofficeI guess there’s plenty of retrospective data matching extreme weather events with jet stream movements. Is it becoming more unpredictable?
So basically no idea then. I have a strong theory of you guys @@metoffice
You and your colleagues have mentioned several times previously that one of the factors that drives the intensity and degree of meandering of the jet stream is the heat/energy difference between arctic and Atlantic maritime air masses: as the world warms at the poles, will this reduce the intensity of the jet stream (and AMOC?) and produce more meandering and "stuck" jets in NW Europe?
That is a theory that is getting a lot of attention at the moment.
Thank you Alex and the MET Office team for
Would it be possible to do some comparisons with previous years temperature / rainfall. My husband keeps telling me July has never been this bad, I’d like to prove him wrong 🤞
It's early days but the graph shown of July so far shows we're in the top 10% for rainfall. A way off from the wettest but lets see what the next 3 weeks bring.
Saw a tweet saying its one the coolest and wettest starts for some time. Still early days so I'm sure the weather will improve
I love Alex' enthusiasm and energy. You explain things so well Alex! I did read in the papers it was going to be a scorcher this month following in to first 2 months of August then rain for last 2 weeks of August. Thats down the pan! Today (Tues) has been quite humid despite rain here in the SE. Personally I love this temperature and the rain
Alex an excellent insight and deep dive 👍 interesting to see the weather in America sure would like some of californias warmth.
I'm constatntly impressed by Alex's dexterity with the software, and his knowledge and enthusiasm. Brilliant! Well done Alex, and thank you!
My hydrangeas are loving all this rain here in Jersey! 😂
Ditto here in Blackfen, SE London. This time last year they'd all been burnt to a frazzle.
So are my weeds! 😠
Hopefully it won’t rain on St Swithin’s Day (15th July) 🤞
Thanks , always watch deep dives very interesting. I worked in Basra Iraq and it would regularly get up to 54 deg
Thank you, Alex
My pleasure - thanks for watching
Thank you for that update on the weather, wow! You certainly have a good technical system there, very precise. ❤Deanne
These “Deep Dives” are brilliant. Thank you.
It’s been a terrible summer, so depressing!
really? 20c and mild, what's the issue?
@@LynxEngthick cloud and no sun shine is the problem!
@@LynxEngThe fact that the past 13 months have been a rinse and repeat of grey, miserable, sodden weather. Been 14c for days now.
Loving the rain for the garden
There were a lot of tornadoes over Texas and Louisiana from Beryl yesterday -- a lot of damage caused and big trees fell on houses, - (Was watching some live streams ofstorm chasers that work close with Reed Trimmer)
Should we be making human sacrifices to the weather Gods?
Really nice use of graphics and great presentation !
I'm so fed up of this rain! I enjoyed the heatwave!
I can send you one, from the US here, complete with mini-flash-drought and leaves falling from trees in absolute exhaustion!❤
I hate the heat waves roll on September
Same 😢
I just want dry weather !
I expect a Indian Summer in September in the UK, sometimes happens that you get a last surge of warmer weather then
We certainly had a hot start to September last year
Your have to visit India
Hi Alex and crew extreme weather events around the world would be interesting please
Brilliant channel. I loved the deep dive. More please, especially in the other countries 🙂🇬🇧
Thank you all you guys for all your hard work really enjoy watching the Deep Dives and 10 Day Trends every week. Not bothered about heat just wishing for some settled dry weather with a bit of sunshine ☀️ but maybe too much to wish for this summer😢. Can you explain why the jet stream has almost constantly been running through or south of the UK this summer?🥰💜
Alex great job, very enthusiastic, you remind me of Magnus Pike, waving your arms around 👍👍
Hi Alex. Haven't visited you for a while, but for some reason I found the country outlines weren't visible through the overlays. I especially noticed this with USA and the steering colours. Fascinating episode today, thank you.
We have planned a holiday to the uk just to enjoy the weather that I follow....
Loving the rainfall graphics 👌
Being a night worker, I love summer. At around 03:05 in the morning it starts getting light ( around Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Staffordshire and Warwickshire) it’s the best time of day, there is a summer, unfortunately most of you’re in bed. When I get up at around 14:00, I experience’your summer’. Mine is much, much better. I’ve been sleeping trough most of the bad stuff!
Hi Alex, Thank you! live in Lisbon, any chance you could talk more about how the jet stream affects the weather here. I watch to find out the weather here as your maps often cover my area as well. It has been cooler and wetter than normal.
A south shifted jet means you too are closer to the lows and the rain.
Always a pleasure to watch the deep dives. Can you do a weather forecast for next week for the RIAT Airshow please? Do yo think the weather is stuck in a 7 area pattern around the northern hemisphere? How quickly can this change? Or does it not? Still learning lots about the weather. Keep the deep dives coming.
Oh I'm just about ready to RIP🪦 this summer, it's sooo depressing, on a brighter note..Alex you are my favourite presenter 🌞
Thank you Alex
As always very interesting the deep dives and also the weather in America .
Phew that is hot !!!
Maybe the the Gulfstream is dipping too low but at least we aren’t cooking from the heat but the rain is watering crops well .
Indeed, but maybe too well?
@@metoffice definitely too well I currently have doomed my tomatoes to nothing, no flowers and maybe by time they have flowers they'll get blight because of the rain very very demoralising.
Its literally just stopped raining and drizzling about an hour ago here in Dublin after 36 hours!!! Summer indeed.
Terrific show. Deakin is unbelievable. A thirty minute show in one take that was totally pro. Great work Met office. Keep up the good work. Oh and can you organise some nice weather for Normandy next weekend? Headed there on my motorbike and I’ve done enough rain riding this year. Thanks a lot 👍
Thank you for the informative video Alex I always enjoy them as I love learning about how different systems influence our weather. I have a question about the different warning maps, how do you decide the shape of the maps in terms of what areas they cover such as the thunderstorm warning shown in the video, how do you know what places to cover and what places to just miss the warning map or is it a rough estimate? Hope that makes sense! Keep up the great work!
Great question Mat, thanks. The area is decided by the chief meteorologist. They look at the weather in great details obviously and weigh up all the information from the forecast models. But also they take advice from Met Office advisors 'on the ground'. Our warnings are about impacts and so it's vital to understand what the affects of the weather could be. The advisors speak regularly to responders, emergency services and local communities and help greatly with drawing up the boundaries.
@@metoffice That’s really interesting thank you for that! I always found it interesting as one place could not be covered by a warning but another place nearby is, thanks Alex!
I've just returned from a three day mountain bike adventure across Wales, and the weather was practically identical to when I made the same trip this time last year! Fine first day, terrible a.m, glorious p.m. second day, and rainy am, fine pm, third day. Never too hot which is probably ideal for long days in the saddle! 😊
Excellent shirt; very informative 🌨️
Just wondering is this the coldest summer so far on record or have we had similar in the past?
Love this channel - think I’m addict to it 🤣🤣🤣
We have just got back from holiday in Jamaica I never thought we would ever experience a hurricane in my life time but luckily the staff at are Hotel made sure everyone was safe I was glad to get back after the hurricane the hotel was running on it's generater and could not run the air-conditioning but we did have lights unlike the local people who were using candles and oil lamps
Legend!
Thanks for the detailed forecast Alex
Hello, thanks for sharing North American and European weather forecasts. I was surprised to receive this weather report video on You Tube?
Very interesting to have the background of our weather explained. Very frightening temperatures in California, possibly reflecting the reported 1.5-degree average rise in earth temperature for the past twelve months. Not good. Thank you for your efforts, the interactive screen is the biz. Watching from Dublin Ireland.
I don't have a car and ride an Ebike to work so these deep dives are super useful
Who wants wet weather in the summer?
No one but, it’s bearable at the very least though
Anyone who wants to eat later in the year?
@@alanbryer6234😂
@@alanmawson2187 rain in summer is amazing