I've never seen a reflection of Rookie of the Year, maybe call it Senior of the Year. Players over a certain age who should be on a downswing, but keep performing into their twilight years, like 2016 David Ortiz.
If contract was factored in, it's Baez without question. Drury was even worse than Baez though, I didn't think that was even possible in the league today. Billionaire owners are forever slaves to money.
Baez only playing 80 games prevented him from accumulating enough negative war I think. plus he’s still a slight positive on the bases and in the field
I think Mark Vientos made huge progression this post season. He struck out a lot still but he had quality veteran like at bats. His homerun to tie the game in the ninth against the Phillies was one of the best at bats I’ve seen especially in his career.
I’m not sure how you make the argument of Elly for MVP over Bobby Witt Jr. or Francisco Lindor, both of whom played excellent (and more consistent) defense, ran the bases extremely well, and each posted stellar numbers with the bat. Elly definitely has superstar potential, but I don’t think he quite reached those marks this year.
@@monsterhuntingunslingers33I am a Reds fan and idgaf, it’s nice to see the guy get recognition for making a huge step in every aspect of his game in his sophomore, 22y/o season
@@jameshanus3813yes for sure man. I love how much recognition he's getting. I was just saying I think he's just a step below Witt and Lindor. I can't wait to see what he looks like next year. We've got a superstar, buddy
He still should be a pretty good player, more the fact his numbers exceeded expectancy by just a little too much. Instead of a 133 wRC+, expect him to be around a 110 wRC+ next season.
From what I'm gathering, it's because he wasn't projected to do what he did. So he's considered lucky by exceeding expectations, which is what super stars in the making do
He didn't get enough time ot stand out as much as some other guys. Plus, he plays about average defense at shortstop which counteracts a little bit for his awful hitting
If we take into account how much he's getting paid and will be paid for the next 3 more years he definitely should be the worst player of the year. It's not like his defensive metrics are getting any better to cover his lack of offensive production now that he's getting old. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets outright dfa'd and released next year and I would rather see Sweeny playing shortstop for the tigers next year than him.
@@LaptopGuy-km4bh he’s in the 3rd percentile or lower in just about everything that matters, he was so bad this year: 1st percentile in xERA, xBA, avg exit velo, and barrel rate 3rd percentile in K% and hard hit% His best statcast stat was BB% which was all the way up in the…..25th percentile!
Razzy to Javier Baez. A train wreck for $20 plus million for next 3 years. He’s playing at something less than AAA level currently. Away from the bench young Tigers went on a tear. Addition by subtraction.
My personal choice for luckiest hitter would be Connor Wong, whose .330 wOBA was backed by only a .289 xwOBA. Mark Vientos definitely had some batted ball luck but he was still in the 70th percentile for xwOBA. In no way was he the luckiest hitter. His wOBA-xwOBA was .021, which was only 10th highest amongst players with at least 400 PAs. That is behind Jose Ramirez, Trea Turner, and Jose Altuve.
For unluckiest pitcher Im going Nick Mears. I know hes a reliever, but this ones truly insane. His xERA was 3.29, every statcast stat in 65th percentile or better except BB% and GB%, with really high K% and really good hard hit rate. His actual ERA? 5.93. In 54 IP. Why? His BABIP was .360, 3rd highest in the league, his BA-xBA was 2nd highest, and SLG-xSLG was 10th. Truly bad luck
I’m not an Angels fan but even I was amazed at how awfully Brandon Drury collapsed this year. He wasn’t amazing last year but he still had his moments. This year though I just felt bad because they kept trotting him out there cause they had no one else
i think the brewers were far and away the best baserunning and defensive team in mlb. one of them deserved to be at least a finalist. turang specifically.
Why do you say miller relies more on the defense behind him than Clause if he has almost double the strikeout percentage wouldn’t that mean he relies on strikeouts more than defense even if he has a low exit velocity
I think he will improve as he gets more time in the Majors. He has the tools to be a great hitter, he needs to improve on his swing decisions (as most young players do). I would dial back the expectations a bit though just based on this past season.
@@Wilytics I get what you're saying. The majors is all about adjusting anyway, so now that he won't be a surprise to anyone anymore he'll have to work on things like everyone else. I watched him work through some good at bats in the playoffs and I think he has the potential to grow even more as a player.
NL ROTY should be either Skenes or Merrill. I'd choose Merrill. I find more value in an everyday player over a pitcher, even one as dominant as Skenes.
Elly, the human strikeout for MVP No Gimenez for DPOY? Yikes. That all i gotta say Exit Velo is pretty meaningless honestly, considering one of the leagues best hitters Steven Kwan, ranks among the bottom of the league.
i don't count framing as being a legal part of the game it should be banned. frameing is just cheating. just like claiming fan interference. neither one should be allowed in the rules. so the catcher shouldn't win the DPOY. moreover you didn't introduce the award.
@BraxtonMeyer in its nature i hear your point. Framing does require excellent hand eye coordination and tracking ability. In a sport that allows you to steal a base , ask yourself why not a strike ?
Base running stats should have included OBP imo because that shows the number of attempts someone has on base more times on base could lead to lesser base running expected stats in the sense of having more opportunities and a larger sample size Carroll struggled to get on base but was efficient on them once there Elly was on base far more often and still super productive and arguably more productive imo
I’m done watching this page, used to love it but after calling Mark Vientos the luckiest hitter while hitting more than 30 home runs means you just looked at statcast and Fangraphs without watching any of the games he played. You don’t know anything about his tools he’s been known for in his prospect profile which is his power and his contact, you are flat out oblivious.
My fellow Mets fans need to see this video. I’ve been arguing for months that Mark Vientos has been incredibly lucky, and that he’s a MAJOR regression candidate for next year. He has poor plate discipline, and his zone contact is truly terrible. His K rate was lower than it’s likely to be given his high swinging strike rate. He does hit the ball hard, but he’s going to have to run very high BABIPs to keep his overall numbers up because he fails to make contact so often. He did do that in the minors, but the minors aren’t the majors. Moreover, he’s going to get pitched a lot tougher going forward. I think he’s going to regress massively next year.
His swing decisions are definitely his biggest weakness. That is a problem with the a lot of young players though and we have seen a lot of them improve in that area. It definitely isn’t impossible for Vientos to become great, but yeah as you said I think the expectations are probably too high after this year
I've never seen a reflection of Rookie of the Year, maybe call it Senior of the Year. Players over a certain age who should be on a downswing, but keep performing into their twilight years, like 2016 David Ortiz.
i would say this probably goes to jesse chavez or carlos santana
Sale
If it’s not Javier Baez than I’m batshit crazy…
You are batshit crazy.
If contract was factored in, it's Baez without question. Drury was even worse than Baez though, I didn't think that was even possible in the league today. Billionaire owners are forever slaves to money.
Baez’s defensive value helps him out a lot
Baez only playing 80 games prevented him from accumulating enough negative war I think. plus he’s still a slight positive on the bases and in the field
Baez got hurt and his team was better
I think Mark Vientos made huge progression this post season. He struck out a lot still but he had quality veteran like at bats. His homerun to tie the game in the ninth against the Phillies was one of the best at bats I’ve seen especially in his career.
Not to mention shattering team records!
Next year. Throw in the " Falling off a cliff award" to someone that was so good and just fell below expectations
Should I believe the analytics, or my lying eyes? Mark Vientos is going be a star. Bet on it.
Dumbest shit I ever heard lolol. Totally agree with you.
he won’t be star but he’ll be a solid 3B/DH
I’m not sure how you make the argument of Elly for MVP over Bobby Witt Jr. or Francisco Lindor, both of whom played excellent (and more consistent) defense, ran the bases extremely well, and each posted stellar numbers with the bat. Elly definitely has superstar potential, but I don’t think he quite reached those marks this year.
As a reds fan, I agree with you completely. He's just not there quite yet
@@monsterhuntingunslingers33I am a Reds fan and idgaf, it’s nice to see the guy get recognition for making a huge step in every aspect of his game in his sophomore, 22y/o season
@@jameshanus3813yes for sure man. I love how much recognition he's getting. I was just saying I think he's just a step below Witt and Lindor. I can't wait to see what he looks like next year. We've got a superstar, buddy
sorry but I will not be tempering my expectations on mark vientos
All I heard was he made bad contact and that ball still went out and I like the sound of that
He still should be a pretty good player, more the fact his numbers exceeded expectancy by just a little too much. Instead of a 133 wRC+, expect him to be around a 110 wRC+ next season.
@@ngbernie-x7syou shouldn’t
How is Mark Vientos lucky?!
From what I'm gathering, it's because he wasn't projected to do what he did. So he's considered lucky by exceeding expectations, which is what super stars in the making do
Watch the video , he gives u all the stas
@@libra3655that’s not true at all lmao, players that heavily exceed statistical expectations are very prone to regression
The vientos take is the dumbest shit I ever heard lol . Your throwing out strength ,bat path ,and lift. It's almost ridiculous.
Chill out man, it’s just analytics it’s not the end all be all
Stop being so sensitive.
@@smosmo4617Bro says stop being so sensitive but is acting like a whiny bitch in the comments lmao
cope
When did talking sports become a puss fest 😆
How did I not find this channel earlier? Also as a twins fan Griffin Jax was my one bright spot this season 😭
Andres Gimenez wasn't a nominee for defensive player of the year? Do the stats just not make him stand out as much or something?
He is definitely in the top 10, but I had to draw the line somewhere. He has 14 FRV which is just below the guys in the video
@Wilytics He’s still arguably the best in the league. (Yes I’m biased but I also watch him every day)
Vientos being the luckiest player for going above his expected stats is absolutely hilarious and idiotic.
How did Javy not even get nominated for worst player of the year??
He only played for like half the year. Plus he is above average in fielding his offense was just abysmal
He didn't get enough time ot stand out as much as some other guys. Plus, he plays about average defense at shortstop which counteracts a little bit for his awful hitting
If we take into account how much he's getting paid and will be paid for the next 3 more years he definitely should be the worst player of the year. It's not like his defensive metrics are getting any better to cover his lack of offensive production now that he's getting old. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets outright dfa'd and released next year and I would rather see Sweeny playing shortstop for the tigers next year than him.
I'd change the luckiest category to the overperformer category, because the basis of the selection is players who vastly outperform the projections
Taijuan Walker was ROBBED
He actually was; 7.12 xERA
@@LaptopGuy-km4bh he’s in the 3rd percentile or lower in just about everything that matters, he was so bad this year:
1st percentile in xERA, xBA, avg exit velo, and barrel rate
3rd percentile in K% and hard hit%
His best statcast stat was BB% which was all the way up in the…..25th percentile!
Razzy to Javier Baez. A train wreck for $20 plus million for next 3 years. He’s playing at something less than AAA level currently. Away from the bench young Tigers went on a tear. Addition by subtraction.
My personal choice for luckiest hitter would be Connor Wong, whose .330 wOBA was backed by only a .289 xwOBA. Mark Vientos definitely had some batted ball luck but he was still in the 70th percentile for xwOBA. In no way was he the luckiest hitter.
His wOBA-xwOBA was .021, which was only 10th highest amongst players with at least 400 PAs. That is behind Jose Ramirez, Trea Turner, and Jose Altuve.
Contract should be a factor even by a smidge
Please consider adding the player’s age and maybe the years in MLB. This helps draw better comparisons.
javy Baez robbed
Andres Gimenez for defensive player? He has to be the best infielder I’ve ever seen.
No Gimenez nomination for defensive player of the year is wild
Those Drury defense highlights are something else
was expecting Mitch Garver and Mitch Hanigar of the Mariners to be one of the worst hitters this season
For unluckiest pitcher Im going Nick Mears. I know hes a reliever, but this ones truly insane. His xERA was 3.29, every statcast stat in 65th percentile or better except BB% and GB%, with really high K% and really good hard hit rate.
His actual ERA? 5.93. In 54 IP. Why? His BABIP was .360, 3rd highest in the league, his BA-xBA was 2nd highest, and SLG-xSLG was 10th. Truly bad luck
Bobby Miller gotta be the worst pitcher if you count both MLB and minors
I’m not an Angels fan but even I was amazed at how awfully Brandon Drury collapsed this year. He wasn’t amazing last year but he still had his moments. This year though I just felt bad because they kept trotting him out there cause they had no one else
That's crazy putting de la cruz at mvp😂
looks like tatis never stopped using his 'ringworm medication'
mark vientos isnt lucky hes just strong try watching him play even if he doesnt make good contact hes strong enough to hit it out
i think the brewers were far and away the best baserunning and defensive team in mlb. one of them deserved to be at least a finalist. turang specifically.
LOL De La Cruz struck out 218 times this year.
Surprised Jordon Montgomery didn't make the list, his ERA was huge!
I like your videos but the Elly fan boy in you is serious 😂
the anti-cy young award should be the william ford award.
Why do you say miller relies more on the defense behind him than Clause if he has almost double the strikeout percentage wouldn’t that mean he relies on strikeouts more than defense even if he has a low exit velocity
I'd expect the Brewers and Phillies to beat the Mets in the playoffs but the game is played on the field not on the spreadsheets.
did you miss taijuan walker for the anti-cy young?
Love your channel, man. Keep it up.
Appreciate it!
@@Wilytics NP , friend. I’ve cited many of your videos to friends on Social Media. I hope I’ve steered a few subs in for you.
Let’s Go RedSox !
bro i guessed the underated sp of the year lol
You honestly couldve gone with either jackson merrill or profar for clutch player of year
Not sure if you do already but could you do an mvp and cy young prediction for next year?
Elly is barely even the best Cruz in the NL central let alone mvp
thank you for letting the world know what we know about cristopher sanchez haha
You gotta look at spray angle. Tatis doesn't pull any of his fly balls, leading to the underperforming xslg.
Tatis had an above average pull rate in 2024 at just under 39 percent compared to the league average 37 percent
All I gots to say is I hope Vientos makes this analysis irrelevant long-term.
I think he will improve as he gets more time in the Majors. He has the tools to be a great hitter, he needs to improve on his swing decisions (as most young players do). I would dial back the expectations a bit though just based on this past season.
@@Wilytics I get what you're saying. The majors is all about adjusting anyway, so now that he won't be a surprise to anyone anymore he'll have to work on things like everyone else.
I watched him work through some good at bats in the playoffs and I think he has the potential to grow even more as a player.
NL ROTY should be either Skenes or Merrill. I'd choose Merrill. I find more value in an everyday player over a pitcher, even one as dominant as Skenes.
5:00 Clase had a better hard hit % and barrel % than Miller. Just using exit velo is an example of being very selective with your stats
I was hoping for Witt jr in defensive player of the year
U should try and add an award nest year for the most average pitcher and hitter
Elly, the human strikeout for MVP
No Gimenez for DPOY?
Yikes. That all i gotta say
Exit Velo is pretty meaningless honestly, considering one of the leagues best hitters Steven Kwan, ranks among the bottom of the league.
i don't count framing as being a legal part of the game it should be banned. frameing is just cheating. just like claiming fan interference. neither one should be allowed in the rules.
so the catcher shouldn't win the DPOY. moreover you didn't introduce the award.
@BraxtonMeyer in its nature i hear your point. Framing does require excellent hand eye coordination and tracking ability. In a sport that allows you to steal a base , ask yourself why not a strike ?
Im a cubs fan and when christiphor morel was on the cubs he was really good but he js not the worst player he is better than Javy
another otto lopez defensive player award snub
Baez was the most overpaid player, don’t get me wrong he played horribly but there are worse players who don’t get paid
How was taijuan walker not the anti cy young?
PATRICK BAILEY DPOYYYYY
Where tf is taijuan walker
Spam reporting this channel for copyright how dare you
Base running stats should have included OBP imo because that shows the number of attempts someone has on base more times on base could lead to lesser base running expected stats in the sense of having more opportunities and a larger sample size Carroll struggled to get on base but was efficient on them once there Elly was on base far more often and still super productive and arguably more productive imo
Jr. Lake
Tijuan for anti mvp
Jackson Merrill >>> Paul Skenes
Not even close
I love Patrick Bailey
same
Nice vid
cool stuff
indeed
I’m done watching this page, used to love it but after calling Mark Vientos the luckiest hitter while hitting more than 30 home runs means you just looked at statcast and Fangraphs without watching any of the games he played. You don’t know anything about his tools he’s been known for in his prospect profile which is his power and his contact, you are flat out oblivious.
Easy. Miles Mikolas. 🐕 💩
Rename anti-CY Cry Young
First.
goat
My fellow Mets fans need to see this video. I’ve been arguing for months that Mark Vientos has been incredibly lucky, and that he’s a MAJOR regression candidate for next year. He has poor plate discipline, and his zone contact is truly terrible. His K rate was lower than it’s likely to be given his high swinging strike rate. He does hit the ball hard, but he’s going to have to run very high BABIPs to keep his overall numbers up because he fails to make contact so often. He did do that in the minors, but the minors aren’t the majors. Moreover, he’s going to get pitched a lot tougher going forward. I think he’s going to regress massively next year.
His swing decisions are definitely his biggest weakness. That is a problem with the a lot of young players though and we have seen a lot of them improve in that area. It definitely isn’t impossible for Vientos to become great, but yeah as you said I think the expectations are probably too high after this year