As an American living in Europe for 20+ years I believe Europe needs to reduce dependence on the US for defense. Spend more but employ more and stop worrying about what the next administration will / will not do.
As an American that's also lived in Europe, I kind of agree, but worry about politicians like Macron scratching their itch to play powers off each other, and ending up with regional rivalries and the centuries of wars that Europe has been known for, due to this kind of scheming. Better would be an alliance around the rim of Eurasia, of like value countries committed to mutual defense broadly, not just "Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems aren't Europe's", as Modi put it.
Yes, Europe has used the US as their security blanket and is not what NATO was designed for. Has Europe invested properly in their defenses in the last 30 years, the invasion would have never happened in the first place. This is what Trump had issues with and he is 100% right about it
There is no united Europe, we only have a lot of competing small countries. But there is a chance that if NATO fails a new European defense alliance can form.
Europes responsibility to defend our borders. EU Agenda 2030 will be as EU leader Claus Schwab claims a union based upon China's CCP. Schwab is a millionare and communist saying " You will own nothing.." 3000 political prisonors in UK. Censorship and a new class of extremly rich elite, the poor getting poorer. Norway
Wall Street Journal already reported that Trump want to establish a demilitarised zone, but without any american peacekeepers and with 20 years moratorium for Ukraine's NATO membership
As a dane working in the airforce, you should be very worried at how insanely hollow and non-existant our capability is. We are as a nation, 100% incapable of the most basic of operations. No doubt Anders is a very smart guy however.
"the real question is not actually what Trump says he will do, but rather what Trump will do when those things that he says he will do don't work" very well said (4:55). He's unpredictable enough that no one really knows.
So he will not do what he said before elections passing like a liar? That doesn’t make any sense, I can guarantee you that he will force Ukraine to surrender by cutting all American aid.
Also he's 78 with a failing body and brain. And he's incredibly lazy. So most of this will come down to what bannon and Peter Thiel and Musk push for. Trump only cares about himself and isn't very sharp and thus easy to manipulate by cynical people around him.
Well his strategy here either will work, comedian listens and sits down and makes a deal, or doesn’t and it’s a worse result that’s slow and painful. (Their choice) Or you know it doesn’t work, Ru doesn’t listen and won’t sit down cause they believe they don’t need to. Either way the outcomes here are all positives for the U.S since the propping up and throwing tax money in a blackhole stops all together, the one constant with Trump is that’s happening regardless.
He isn’t unpredictable, he just hasn’t actually laid out any realistic policies or plans and the right wing media lets him get away with it. Not knowing is not the same as unpredictable. I would say he is entirely predictable
THANK YOU. This is a thing that has been driving me nuts the last 24 hours or so. Everyone's making predictions about what Trump means for this or that. This misses the point of who Trump is - he's a chaos engine. He governs based on gut instinct and how he feels in the moment. He's not a planner. He's not an ideologue (as much as people want to portray him that way). He's a dude who makes it up as he goes along. He's also not a guy who is well informed on anything. How he handles Ukraine is going to depend heavily on how his relationship with Zelensky evolves. Relationships are HUGE for Trump. Zelensky needs to start flattering him. The foundation for why Trump loves Putin so much is that someone mistranslated Putin calling him 'colorful' with the word 'brilliant'. Trump LOVES being flattered. This guy doesn't think about situations in terms of pros and cons or risks and rewards or game theory boxes. It's about gut and relationships. He can be manipulated pretty easily if you understand who you're dealing with. DO NOT try to deal with him like a normal politician. He doesn't care about geopolitical balances or morality or philosophy. He doesn't understand any of that. The truth of it is, we DO NOT KNOW what's going to happen in part because Trump likely doesn't know either. He's likely got a fantasy in his head where he solves it all through force of personality, but it's probably a fantasy that is light on details.
Best take yet. Describes Trump to a tee. Fundamentally, I think Trump doesn't give a flying fig about Ukraine and assuredly doesn't want to send any help. I would bet good money Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map. He just doesn't care.
It always amuses me when US tax dollars comes up as an issue when anyone who has studied military aid to Ukraine is aware that not only has it not cost us a dime, but it’s actually profiting us + enabled critical progress and reform to our own arms industry + military procurement philosophy (we’re finally realizing OST tech can perform better than ridiculously overpriced platforms like Switchblade in many cases, using companies like Anduril to substitute for things like JASSM and Hellfire missiles for a tiny of fraction of the price).
@ That’s basically what we’ve been doing. There are also massive financial interests we’d be risking by allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine, including the fact that they’d control so much of the world’s food supply (and already control nearly 100% of fertilizer) that they’d be able unleash famine and trigger refugee crises if we didn’t play ball.
@@harmless6813 Which is why is it so crictically important that European countries (and yes, this will include UK defence industries) learn to cope without US. US are generally making bleeding edge, extremely expensive weapons that works well for beating down dicatorships supplied with leftovers from the Soviet Union. US is all about projecting power across oceans, and that means extreme logistical challanges, and, again, very expensive military equipment. I think Europe, that really only need to focus on guarding the border to Russia, and the occasional UN peace keeping mission, can do better if we design out own systems based on our own needs.
@@rg5207 You dont understand Russia. It was a MASSIVE diplomatic issue when Germany built defenses in Rostock a few months ago. As Petrov said "building defences in the former USSR is unacceptable". Russia has gone off the deep end and if they arent stopped in Ukraine, they have to be stopped in Estonia or Poland.
@@rg5207 Getting Ukraine away from the violent and corruptive cleptocracy that is Russia is certainly important. Russia has practiced russofication in occupied territories for many years. There is also a wast knowledge in Russia about this from sovjet times. 4 examples 1: If you want education you have to use russian in the occupied territories. Ukraine has lots of russian speaking schools at the time of the invasion. Number of schools teaching or accepting ukranian in Russia is zero. (Source Operator Starsky Ukraine) 2: If you want to be hired by authorities / factories with contracts with authorites in occupied territories russian speaking is the only option. Source: Interviews with russian prisoners of war in Ukraine. (Zolkin) 3: You have to have russian pass to get a pension. I have heard this multible times, but I dont remember with certainty which sources 4: Ukranian women who now give birth in Donbass have to accept russian citizenship or the child is taken away. Danish news DR og I think "Sillicon Curtain" / Jonathan Fink (british) Apart from this russian soldiers have stolen kids from orphanages. Putin and some of his offials is wanted to be tried for these crimes. There is also multible occasions of civilians and soldiers killed despite surrendering, torture, rape of women and even children and some castrations of men. See Zolkin interviews, Operator Starsky Ruski Mir, Deutche Welle and BBC
"Congrats for the 200K!! WELL earned." I'll bet Anders has so little interest in that, he won't even have noticed! Unlike others who get out the cakes and champagne when they get to 20K.
we don't need political chaos in Germany right now, we need Germany to be strong ! Without a strong Germany, no strong EU.. and Europe will end up being part of Russia. Soner or later. Putin lately said in one speach" it is Gods will that we should Russificate ( is that a word??) the entire planet.." So he won't stop.. he's a mad man.. I think the EU member states are working very much closer together now, than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ( minus Hungary..😤). but if Hungary ar not interested in being a member of EU, then they are free to go.. So yes, we need a combined military force in EU! not today, but yesterday! We should have had that many years ago, and not have accepted the Russian invasion of Crimes..! Putin found out: " hmm they don't care..hmmm next step Kiev.. next step the Baltics, then Poland..and so on.. BUT.. EU woke up!! So did Finland and Sweden and joined Nato.. And greetings from Denmark to Germany also. Ps by the way, Denmark has been very sceptical against EU always, but I think 3 things changed peoples opinion: 1: Brexit .. it was, and is a disaster for UK... not for EU. EU has never been stronger! 2: The pandemic made people realize we live on the same continent, and we are dependent on China to produce masks?? why...?? 3: The Russian war..: most people laughed if someone said Putin was a thread... now we know he is very dangerous lunatic. And people fear war now ! 4.. ( I said 3.. I know..) the younger generations are used to travel free, to study where they want..buy stuff in other European countries, also beer in Germany 🍻 and all of a sudden they realized.. if we leave EU, like UK, we need visa to go to Spain..and we can only buy 6 beers in Germany to bring home . Holy cow... what a disaster .. maybe that EU is not so bad after all.. 😁 ps2: Some countries that say, Ukraine should give away some land to Russia, and then we will have peace .. I agree with Zelensky : those who say that should give away. a big part of their own country to Russia instead .. think about it ...What's the difference? Zelensky is a clever man !!
As always well done . I’m American and have many friends in Ukraine . People are freaking after the election . Sensible discussion is paramount . Thanks Anders .
Trump is the president of the United States, not Ukraine... Shouldn't the "independent state" not care who is the president of another country?... lol...🤣
Very impressive. Amidst all the current blah blah blah on this topic in the public space, this take is an order of magnitude (at least) better than anything else I've come across. Bravo! 👏! 👏!
Me too! Wish I had this quality of analysis on 100 other issues. I'm guessing you would include in "illuminating" the value of Ander Puck Nielsen's depth of understanding, and his integrity about what he does not know. I value these even more than his lack of spin.
Hahahaha! Another victim of the leftist propaganda. Ofc he was spinning it, the entire thing was a honest attmpt to not spin it (too much) but it clearly failed. I will not explain how, not my job. The reality will explain to you why you are delusional much better than I ever could. Just have some patience.
- what about the EU taking responsibility for its own security instead of expecting American tax payers to foot the bill? The EU's GDP is more than 10x higher than Russia's GDP. Provided the EU started prioritizing its expenses, it could easily afford to supply Ukraine with all the weapons needed to defeat Russia decisively.
So many great questions here. Being honest about what we know and do not know leads so many good questions and reasoned analysis which would be obscured if ideology was considered. Thank you!
We know more than what this video is saying. The former U.K. PM and two of Trump's foreign policy advisors have clearly laid out Trump's plan which is to force both sides to accept the border where the line of fighting is now. Trump would use the threat of pulling all support or fully supporting Ukraine to threaten both sides with unacceptable loss if they don't agree.
Thank you for the level headed commentary. Much love to everyone from an environmental science graduate in the UK. Thank you to Anders for teaching about foreign/defence policy, it's been helpful in understanding a key driver in my environmental policy and energy modules.
The most reliable constant is probably that Trump acts in favor of Trump. Always. That's why I like Professor Gerdes' approach: the task at hand is to find and establish a narrative where Trump sees a big boost (or avoidance of a loss) for himself in Ukraine winning. He also gives an example: "Donald, do you really want to be the first US president losing against russia?"
Amusing to suggest academic condemnation means diddly squat to Trump, his voters, or backers like Musk. Trump can give Ukraine to Russia in its entirety and simply declare victory. I promise you Americans will buy that fully. Just so long as there is still pizza beer and football.
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have a bad reputation among conservatives anymore so saying Ukraine was giving to Russia isn't a big deal to them. Putin has successfully advertised Russia as a "conservative anti-LGBT haven" and they suck it right up even though it's a corrupt authoritarian dictatorship and an enemy
Dump only cares about money. He doesn't care about the American people and doesn't care about Ukraine retaining its territory and independence. If Putin covertly offered him first dibs on choice development sites for luxury resorts and golf courses around the Black Sea he would be up for that and he would do as Putin's bidding.
How i want this to go... EU tells Orban to sit and spin. South Korea backfills European artillery. Within the next year or two Europe needs to get super serious about its own defense. Partner with Poland. Putin just said that his economy is collapsing and the embargos are working... Ukraine can get this over the goal line without the US. I am so sorry my country has failed Europe. 😢
@@BTC9403 it seems this is an exception and USA really decided to end. Just it. New world order will be without Americans deciding, France and Ukraine are the ones who have most influence now. UK can hop along, Germany with Scholtz REALLY wants to sink with America but they can do a 180 and join French instead.
@@larsrons7937 totally deserved. By far the best information available on UA-cam regarding Ukraine. People don’t understand just how valuable his input is, considering his real life work
As an American I can say that the Trump supporters really see Ukraine as an insignificant issue. Their main issue is the immediate world around them, they are real isolationists. Sort of like we were in the 1930’s. It’s a shame but there is nothing I can do to change that.
It is indeed sad, but OTOH I always get a kick out of somebody nasty getting what they want and then discovering that the situation is now much worse than before. They might have elected Trump to fix their economy but that's like getting the fox to look after your remaining chickens. The results will delightful for any of us not living in the US.
You can understand the worldview though. In essence this is the third time we've bailed out Europe with force of arms in the last 150 years. It's about time they carried themselves. I don't want to see Ukraine thrown over the side to look after ourselves but that's a likely scenario. European arrogance and ingratitude only makes that option easier to carry through.
@@SVSky You have view that is self absolving. It was the US that pushed NATO expansion. Merkel and Sarkozy warned against inducting Ukraine, fearing to would lead to war - but Bush twisted their hand. It was the US that financed the 2014 coup in Ukraine that brought neo Nazi, anti Russian nationalists into power. From that day on war was inevitable. You have not bailed out anyone, you created the Ukrainian problem with the 2014 coup - and you are going to walk away. This is after saying you will support Ukraine for however long it takes, after refusing to reply to Putin's request to guarantee Russia's security, and after scuttling the peace agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The US incited the war, you dragged Europe into it, you blocked the peace agreement in Turkey, and now that you are defeated, you say Ukraine is Europe's problem, we are sick and tired of your wars! Shameless fellow. Europe and Ukraine are at fault no doubt - for consenting to be US vassals. They deserve what they are getting. But don't put on airs of innocence. Get it, scumbag ?
And you Dems didn’t give 2 shits about Ukraine until it became an issue in Congress. I have followed many sites for a long time. You people were not there.
@@SVSky Elephant in the room. Even smaller European nations like Sweden are capable of building nukes (The Brits and French have had them for decades). Next thing will be countries all over the world following suit and building nukes
"Biden administration's policy on Ukraaine where they've been providing consistent military assistance on an onsgoing basis so that Ukraine can continue to fight" is a painfully precise and honest description.
Yes, but in an incremental way. A way Russia has been able to respond to. Expect Trump to do what nobody expected - to go hard out in support for Ukraine. So hard that Russia gives up.
@@ovekkjlstad7703If he does I will be the first to praise him. But there's no indication of that and given Trump's infatuation with Putin I won't hold my breath.
Biden's policy prolonged the war, destruction and deaths on both sides, turning it into a war of attrition, like WW1. It is the worst case scenario and Biden bungled it all up.
Thank you for being a constant voice of reason during this awful war of aggression that Putin has visited on a peaceful independent country. Ukraine should inspire us all to help more - they are fighting like lions.
I know. I felt exactly the same about the American wars of agression based on lies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. The word the west loves so damn much, but never seem to practice them selves. Did you feel the same way about those wars?
@@zi0 She did not feel the same about those wars Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. She imagines she has shared values with Ukrainians because they are white.
@@zi0 Only Ukraine isn't Saddam's Iraq, or the taliban, or ISIS, or ethnic cleansing Serb nationalists. And Russia isn't fighting to remove a murderous warmongering dictator. It's fighting for a murderous warmongering dictator.
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 You seem to forget all those wars were based on lies. This is no exception. The historical rule is that American wars are based on lies, the Spanish did nothing to blow up the battleship man that was an accident. The Lusitania was not a peaceful liner. It was a military cargo ship with human shields. The golf Tonkin incident never happened. The testimony of Nayirah, the 15 year old Kuwaiti girl was a complete fabrication. There were no weapons of mass destr in Iraq. American wars aren’t righteous crusades they are tapestries of lies designed to advance the interests of American elites. Do yourself and the world a favor and stop being a wide-eyed believer.
To everyone picking the centrist view of "thanks for not taking sides", everything he just said is that Trump will limit NATO and Ukraine. AT BEST, hes not bad, and that an extremely low bar. People voted for someone who doesnt even have a clear position on a war in Europe which is unbelievable to me, but then again a lot of americans dont seem to know whether Europe is a country, a continent or a county so im not surprised.
Trump position is that America is strong militarily and economically and so holds all the cards. It can force Ukraine and Russia to agree to a deal else Trump fully supports the other side. This is what the former UK PM and two of Trump's defense strategists are telling us.
People like Anders make me confident that we have capable brains in our military. His videos are "must watch" to me too. Sadly I didn't find his channel until Ukraine's Kherson offensive two years ago. I wish I'd watched it back in 2021, then much more would've been clear to me in early 2022. Anders turned out to be very accurate in his predictions.
@@TheisKrarupHansen He/she is probably not aware that Swedes are always complaining about what Danes do and how stupid we are, though they decide to do the same some time later. Closing the border to illegally intruding refugees: a couple of weeks later. Joining the EU: some decades later. Joining NATO: 75 years later.
America has been a big obstacle to freedom for a lot of countries. Countless coups and wars that destabilized and overthrew democratically elected governments. It's about time we stop sticking our noses into the rest of the world and putting our economic interests first.
Follow Peter Zeihan. I agree with his conclusions. USA is not declining. In fact it is becoming stronger and less reliant on free trade (now a net energy exporter). USA made a sweet deal for Europe BEFORE the end of WW2 known as Bretton Woods. USA agreed to let all of the allies dump their products in the US market and guaranteed protection of international shipping. All Europe had to do was build a military force capable of stopping the Soviet horde. When the Soviet Union collapsed, USA never re-evaluated that agreement and we ran on auto-pilot for decades. Now we are reaching the point where the average American wants to know why they don't have universal health care but have an expeditionary military capable of kicking anyone's butt around the world. Meanwhile, the Europeans bloated their welfare states and dismantled their military. A sizable portion of the USA electorate is fed up with the status quo and wants to know what's in it for them. I'm a Reagan Republican, did not vote for Trump this election, but I fully understand why a lot fellow citizens are disgusted with the path we are on. Europe needs to step up and get their act together. Period. It has nothing to do with whether you can depend on USA military. You have no serious military to speak of. You have little in the way of expeditionary forces; You couldn't repeat the Afghan exercise today even if you had the political will. USA can afford to abandon many of its so-called allies. Those allies can't afford USA abandoning them. They will need to start sucking up to whomever is running the United States. This is going to continue even after Trump leaves office. He's just the rampaging motormouth with no filter we have today. Both parties are turning populist and isolationist. No more free ride for Europe. It pains me to see how the Biden administration has drip-fed support to Ukraine. If I had been in power, the supplies would have been massive and overwhelming like Reagan would have done. Russia today is a two-bit state with an economy one-tenth our size. Only their nukes protect them today...and the weak-spined western leaders like Biden and Scholz. If Nikki Haley had won the Republican nomination, I'm sure we would have had a great president willing to stand up to Putin, minimizing Ukraine's losses. Slava Ukraini!
@@kodiak2fitty I agree with most of your points, I just want to state that Trump is the last President who would spend less on the military and more on universal healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor do I believe that a Trump voter (or even a Republican voter in general) would want the US to have universal healthcare.
@@BenjaminFranz-y5f not disagreeing with you. But we did devote our budget to being the apex military. It probably would not be the case if we had universal healthcare. In fact it is going to get harder to maintain what we have and defend against China with our ballooning debt, social security, and Medicare costs.
Tak for dine altid gode gennem gange og ud fra min opfattelse saglige belysninger af de forskellige emner du tager op, jeg ser altid frem til dine indslag
Hi Anders - in a scenario where Trump completely cuts aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine buckles under Russian pressure; Do you believe certain European countries might step in directly to defend Ukraine, such as Poland, Romania, or even France?
It is possible. Poland probably. France has a very populist population and rule, so no. Also what would be the outcomes? All just to push Russians from the 3 regions? Not worth the effort, and probably they can't without the US.
I think Trump knowing why he wants something is already too much of an assumption. He typically just says something on a whim and then doubles down on it.
Trump's Jet has met with the Russia's diplomatic plane like 8 times this year alone. Trump sees Russians more than his wife (not counting mistresses, because he's that... Christian).
That situation where the American defence industry continues to supply expensive weapons to Ukraine, and the Europeans pay for it, would be very attractive to the new President Trump. It would maintain the defence industry jobs and release funds for other projects which would benefit the USA. That may horrify European politicians, but they (we, I'm British) should end our dependence on the US anyway.
Thanks a million Anders for this amazing update. I do however feel deflated that Trump won and fear for Europe’s future. Philip in Ireland ☘️🇮🇪☘️ Slava Ukrainei 🇺🇦🙏🇺🇦👍
I worked in Iraqi Kurdistan and some Danes like Anders were employed to "negotiate" away any trouble with the Kurds or get to know if the Dae'sh (ISIS) were about. We never had any trouble , they were really good at talking situations down and avoiding misunderstandings leading to trouble...and everyone friendly and we even got truflles instead of troubles from the Kurds , People should learn to be more friendly and reasonable like Anders ... would say ? and things go better for sure
With most politicians, if they say something, you hold them to account. With Trump, you accept that whatever he has said could well have nothing to do with what he eventually decides!
Oh? did anyone hold Obama to account over all the promises he made? He even had the gall to make the same promises during his re-election as if he didn't have four years to keep them. Nobody cared. Everyone cheered, people voted for him once again. There is no system in our government to hold people to account regarding their promises. At best, you expect them to keep one or two of their big promises or at least make efforts towards them during their first term while ignoring most of the rest. Trump is no different. As for the war in Ukraine, I think my fellow conservatives have lost the plot here. I don't know how aiding Ukraine became a bad thing. I hope that he will not stop providing aid to them, because we get to degrade Russia without spending American lives, and that can only be a good thing for American interests around the world. So many people on the right seem to be losing their mind over money being spent on stuff that doesn't benefit us, but we already do that on a massive scale, and Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket.
He has 24 hours, to the second after he takes his oath of office, to resolve the war. Otherwise, to paraphrase the president-elect, he will be "The Greatest Liar of All Time". If you study him carefully, he is a sales associate who likes to make exaggerated claims. The greatest this, the best that. When he called President Zelenskyy the "greatest salesman of all time" that is projection of self, a compliment, in Trump-speak.
This video pretty much sums up, the problem with Trump in general. Not just now. But also in his first term. He is unpredictable, and sees everything, as a black and white transaction. Disregarding how most things are interconnected. He has said a lot of stuff, that he wants to do. But on pretty much every topic, he has simplified the problems, to such a degree. That his supporters believe, that there is an easy solution. And that he will just do that. E.g. "End the war in 24 hours". Even if he were to pressure Ukraine, into accepting all of Russias demands, without pushback. That would still take months, before there is a chance, that the fighting stops. The last time he promised to build, the "Big beautiful wall". Apparently that didn't happen, because Mexico didn't pay for it. And his grifter friends stole wall donations. He wanted to repeal and replace the 'Affordable Care Act'. It wasn't completely dismantled. He didn't even try. And he still doesn't have a Healthcare plan, 8 years later, just "the concept of a plan". In reality, on most topics, he is clueless. Even more so then most politicians, before taking office, and looking at 'the books'. His statements have been sufficiently vague, to allow voters to imagine, that what he means, is what they hope for. His policy decisions will depend on, who he taps for his administration. And will be adjusted along the way, as initial effects start showing. The last time. He had a bigger turnover, in his administration, then any president in recent times. To be clear, though not American, I'm terrified in general. Because we know the kind of people, who will be in his administration. We just have no way of knowing, just yet. Which of all the bad things, they will focus on, or how exactly they will do it, and to which extent. Only two thing is clear, at the moment. He and the Republican party has more power, to do what they want this time. And for once, they have the mandate of the people. Meaning, for better or worse, his presidency will not be, a carbon copy of his first one. And they have a VP, that will carryon the (project 2025) torch, should he not succeed. In extending his presidency, beyond the 2 term limit.
I doubt that "Trump pressuring Ukraine" will cause Ukraine to concede. In order for Trump to even approach achieving what he has claimed he will do (e.g., by "ending the war in 24 months instead of 24 hours . . .) he would likely need to INVADE Ukraine and FORCE the Ukrainians to surrender. That almost certainly will not happen.
You are not all wrong but he did pursue the Abraham Accords which was a rather surprising breakthrough using a very non-conventional approach. He may not be smart but he may chose to stop approaches that aren't working and do the opposite.
Anders, Thank you for the clear and brief analysis of the type that is usually presented behind closed doors at think tanks or with public policy announcements full of endless caveats,jargon or vague diplospeak. Your analyses are always accessible to the somewhat informed layman.👍
The acquisition of the F-35 could end up being a huge headache for a lot of European countries, and probably also why Spain has opted out of it in favor of the Eurofighter.
Yeap, am thinking the same since the last Trump administration. You just can't trust the USA anymore as a trusted partner. I wish the country I live in had not bought the F-35s, but that decision was made by politicians, and they are not the brightest 😐
@@claus-not-santa I'm no expert, but I think the decision given the political climate in the USA was wrong. It's less about who made the decision, more about that I think the decision was wrong.
In 2016, Trump wanted to cut the prices of drugs in the US, and made a big deal out of it. After taking office he held a meeting with all the CEOs of the pharma industry, who explained him what they and the US would lose if he did that... and we never heard of lowering drugs prices again. Let's see if he gets into a meeting with the military industrial complex.
Remember: in 2016, Trump said he had a plan to replace Obama Care and that he would replace it. He ran hard on this. He never had a plan. He never repealed Obama Care. So, we really have no idea what Trump will do.
Åh,men altså, Anders, jeg elsker dine opdateringer. Du formidler en god forståelse for kompleksiteten i konflikterne og klæder en på til at forholde sig til situationen. Det er verdensklasse folkeoplysning. Nu skal jeg igang med at læse den der bog om krigens logik ;)
Northen Europe plus Baltics incl Poland n Ukraine, ev UK work on this more jointly, to be less dependent on US. Less countries= faster process. Geography matters, we have more to loose
Thinking that you can predict what Trump will do next, or thinking it will make any kind of rational sense is a fool’s errand. The only thing you can predict with certainty is that he will take credit if things go well, and blame others if things go badly. And that’s it really.
The way you frame Biden escalation management makes it so cynical. But I partly believe that the best outcome for him is an Ukraine and Russia that are both weak enough to not cause problems but still be stable. This approach just leads to maximum amount of suffering
Yes, and it's not Trump's style which is why he's going to get this over with one way or the other. Personally, I believe that he will not be acting in Russia's interests. Even a compromise where say Russia leaves the Donbas and keeps Crimea would have every chance of toppling Putin. After which Ukraine might be able to get it back. Would that be ok if it ended bloodshed and destruction or nah?
Weak Ukraine means strong russia and vice versa, trying to make both weak ends with World War 3 ongoing and us two being the only relevant armies in the world. BOTH are WAY stronger now than in 2022.
Yeah, I'm really not sure why anybody thinks this whole "escalation management" thing has even been working. The Russians have been the ones to escalate every single time, without any cause behind it even.
As an American living in Europe for 20+ years I believe Europe needs to reduce dependence on the US for defense. Spend more but employ more and stop worrying about what the next administration will / will not do.
Agree, that's my view to. Europe's economy is about the same size as China or US. It can afford this and needs to plan accordingly.
As an American that's also lived in Europe, I kind of agree, but worry about politicians like Macron scratching their itch to play powers off each other, and ending up with regional rivalries and the centuries of wars that Europe has been known for, due to this kind of scheming.
Better would be an alliance around the rim of Eurasia, of like value countries committed to mutual defense broadly, not just "Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems aren't Europe's", as Modi put it.
Yes, Europe has used the US as their security blanket and is not what NATO was designed for. Has Europe invested properly in their defenses in the last 30 years, the invasion would have never happened in the first place. This is what Trump had issues with and he is 100% right about it
There is no united Europe, we only have a lot of competing small countries. But there is a chance that if NATO fails a new European defense alliance can form.
Europes responsibility to defend our borders. EU Agenda 2030 will be as EU leader Claus Schwab claims a union based upon China's CCP. Schwab is a millionare and communist saying " You will own nothing.." 3000 political prisonors in UK. Censorship and a new class of extremly rich elite, the poor getting poorer. Norway
As a dane, I am very proud we have people of your caliber in our defense
Wall Street Journal already reported that Trump want to establish a demilitarised zone, but without any american peacekeepers and with 20 years moratorium for Ukraine's NATO membership
Good job Denmark. I don t think we have a guy so smart in the Romanian defense.
And rightly so.
As a half Swede, I agree (and hi to our Danish friends 🇸🇪🇩🇰)
As a dane working in the airforce, you should be very worried at how insanely hollow and non-existant our capability is.
We are as a nation, 100% incapable of the most basic of operations.
No doubt Anders is a very smart guy however.
"the real question is not actually what Trump says he will do, but rather what Trump will do when those things that he says he will do don't work" very well said (4:55). He's unpredictable enough that no one really knows.
So he will not do what he said before elections passing like a liar? That doesn’t make any sense, I can guarantee you that he will force Ukraine to surrender by cutting all American aid.
Also he's 78 with a failing body and brain. And he's incredibly lazy. So most of this will come down to what bannon and Peter Thiel and Musk push for. Trump only cares about himself and isn't very sharp and thus easy to manipulate by cynical people around him.
His promises will be forgotten.
Well his strategy here either will work, comedian listens and sits down and makes a deal, or doesn’t and it’s a worse result that’s slow and painful. (Their choice) Or you know it doesn’t work, Ru doesn’t listen and won’t sit down cause they believe they don’t need to. Either way the outcomes here are all positives for the U.S since the propping up and throwing tax money in a blackhole stops all together, the one constant with Trump is that’s happening regardless.
He isn’t unpredictable, he just hasn’t actually laid out any realistic policies or plans and the right wing media lets him get away with it. Not knowing is not the same as unpredictable.
I would say he is entirely predictable
There are a lot of youtubers who report and explain the war but you are one of the best. every video I get some new insights. 👍👍
You are my favourite analyst on UA-cam by far. Thank you for the constant provision of impartial, realistic, and informative content.
THANK YOU. This is a thing that has been driving me nuts the last 24 hours or so. Everyone's making predictions about what Trump means for this or that. This misses the point of who Trump is - he's a chaos engine. He governs based on gut instinct and how he feels in the moment. He's not a planner. He's not an ideologue (as much as people want to portray him that way). He's a dude who makes it up as he goes along. He's also not a guy who is well informed on anything.
How he handles Ukraine is going to depend heavily on how his relationship with Zelensky evolves. Relationships are HUGE for Trump. Zelensky needs to start flattering him. The foundation for why Trump loves Putin so much is that someone mistranslated Putin calling him 'colorful' with the word 'brilliant'. Trump LOVES being flattered. This guy doesn't think about situations in terms of pros and cons or risks and rewards or game theory boxes. It's about gut and relationships. He can be manipulated pretty easily if you understand who you're dealing with.
DO NOT try to deal with him like a normal politician. He doesn't care about geopolitical balances or morality or philosophy. He doesn't understand any of that. The truth of it is, we DO NOT KNOW what's going to happen in part because Trump likely doesn't know either. He's likely got a fantasy in his head where he solves it all through force of personality, but it's probably a fantasy that is light on details.
Zelenskyy is already licking his boots, Zelenskyy is smart.
Excellent analysis of Trump. And why his next term is so terrifying.
Great analysis
Best take yet. Describes Trump to a tee. Fundamentally, I think Trump doesn't give a flying fig about Ukraine and assuredly doesn't want to send any help. I would bet good money Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map. He just doesn't care.
bam! spot on... sadly
It always amuses me when US tax dollars comes up as an issue when anyone who has studied military aid to Ukraine is aware that not only has it not cost us a dime, but it’s actually profiting us + enabled critical progress and reform to our own arms industry + military procurement philosophy (we’re finally realizing OST tech can perform better than ridiculously overpriced platforms like Switchblade in many cases, using companies like Anduril to substitute for things like JASSM and Hellfire missiles for a tiny of fraction of the price).
Convince a red hat wearer of that. Math hurt brain.
Yeah, but having someone else pay for it would be even better! 😛
@ That’s basically what we’ve been doing. There are also massive financial interests we’d be risking by allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine, including the fact that they’d control so much of the world’s food supply (and already control nearly 100% of fertilizer) that they’d be able unleash famine and trigger refugee crises if we didn’t play ball.
@@harmless6813 Which is why is it so crictically important that European countries (and yes, this will include UK defence industries) learn to cope without US.
US are generally making bleeding edge, extremely expensive weapons that works well for beating down dicatorships supplied with leftovers from the Soviet Union.
US is all about projecting power across oceans, and that means extreme logistical challanges, and, again, very expensive military equipment.
I think Europe, that really only need to focus on guarding the border to Russia, and the occasional UN peace keeping mission, can do better if we design out own systems based on our own needs.
Ukraine is a few % of USA's military budget.
Brilliant! This is the type of comment that is missing in the mainstream media.
I hope we Europeans will stick together as we need unity now more than ever. Also standing with Ukraine!
We need to stand with Ukraine? What for? So we continue to spend a lot of our money on the corruptive state?
@@rg5207 You dont understand Russia. It was a MASSIVE diplomatic issue when Germany built defenses in Rostock a few months ago. As Petrov said "building defences in the former USSR is unacceptable". Russia has gone off the deep end and if they arent stopped in Ukraine, they have to be stopped in Estonia or Poland.
@@rg5207 Getting Ukraine away from the violent and corruptive cleptocracy that is Russia is certainly important. Russia has practiced russofication in occupied territories for many years. There is also a wast knowledge in Russia about this from sovjet times.
4 examples
1: If you want education you have to use russian in the occupied territories. Ukraine has lots of russian speaking schools at the time of the invasion. Number of schools teaching or accepting ukranian in Russia is zero.
(Source Operator Starsky Ukraine)
2: If you want to be hired by authorities / factories with contracts with authorites in occupied territories russian speaking is the only option.
Source: Interviews with russian prisoners of war in Ukraine. (Zolkin)
3: You have to have russian pass to get a pension.
I have heard this multible times, but I dont remember with certainty which sources
4: Ukranian women who now give birth in Donbass have to accept russian citizenship or the child is taken away.
Danish news DR og I think "Sillicon Curtain" / Jonathan Fink (british)
Apart from this russian soldiers have stolen kids from orphanages. Putin and some of his offials is wanted to be tried for these crimes.
There is also multible occasions of civilians and soldiers killed despite surrendering, torture, rape of women and even children and some castrations of men.
See Zolkin interviews, Operator Starsky Ruski Mir, Deutche Welle and BBC
@@johan8969 and what does this suppose to mean? And who the hell is Petrov? Russian president?
@@johan8969The idea that Putin would go for Europe after Ukraine is profoundly retarded. Newsflash: Europe has nukes, and Ukraine doesn't.
This channel is an island of balance in a sea of superlatives. Thank you.
Congrats for the 200K!! WELL earned💪
"Congrats for the 200K!! WELL earned."
I'll bet Anders has so little interest in that, he won't even have noticed! Unlike others who get out the cakes and champagne when they get to 20K.
Thanks Anders, always appreciate your point of view!
Greetings to our neighbors from Germany 🇩🇪🇩🇰
take responsibility after all those trillions for buying russian gas✌️
@@Heinakuhi, can‘t say you are totally wrong.
True. They can't fix yesterday, but start today.
@@Heinakuhi Strengthen the economy and the defence. Strenghten the country inside and outside. And than you can be a partner to others.
we don't need political chaos in Germany right now, we need Germany to be strong !
Without a strong Germany, no strong EU.. and Europe will end up being part of Russia. Soner or later.
Putin lately said in one speach" it is Gods will that we should Russificate ( is that a word??) the entire planet.."
So he won't stop.. he's a mad man..
I think the EU member states are working very much closer together now, than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ( minus Hungary..😤). but if Hungary ar not interested in being a member of EU, then they are free to go..
So yes, we need a combined military force in EU! not today, but yesterday! We should have had that many years ago, and not have accepted the Russian invasion of Crimes..! Putin found out: " hmm they don't care..hmmm next step Kiev.. next step the Baltics, then Poland..and so on..
BUT.. EU woke up!!
So did Finland and Sweden and joined Nato..
And greetings from Denmark to Germany also.
Ps by the way, Denmark has been very sceptical against EU always, but I think 3 things changed peoples opinion:
1: Brexit .. it was, and is a disaster for UK... not for EU. EU has never been stronger!
2: The pandemic made people realize we live on the same continent, and we are dependent on China to produce masks?? why...??
3: The Russian war..: most people laughed if someone said Putin was a thread... now we know he is very dangerous lunatic. And people fear war now !
4.. ( I said 3.. I know..) the younger generations are used to travel free, to study where they want..buy stuff in other European countries, also beer in Germany 🍻 and all of a sudden they realized.. if we leave EU, like UK, we need visa to go to Spain..and we can only buy 6 beers in Germany to bring home . Holy cow... what a disaster .. maybe that EU is not so bad after all..
😁
ps2: Some countries that say, Ukraine should give away some land to Russia, and then we will have peace ..
I agree with Zelensky : those who say that should give away. a big part of their own country to Russia instead .. think about it ...What's the difference?
Zelensky is a clever man !!
As always well done . I’m American and have many friends in Ukraine . People are freaking after the election . Sensible discussion is paramount . Thanks Anders .
Trump is the president of the United States, not Ukraine... Shouldn't the "independent state" not care who is the president of another country?... lol...🤣
Very impressive. Amidst all the current blah blah blah on this topic in the public space, this take is an order of magnitude (at least) better than anything else I've come across. Bravo! 👏! 👏!
Russia got this
This is what I wish we had more of: someone illuminating a murky topic without spinning it to one advantage or another.
Me too! Wish I had this quality of analysis on 100 other issues.
I'm guessing you would include in "illuminating" the value of Ander Puck Nielsen's depth of understanding, and his integrity about what he does not know. I value these even more than his lack of spin.
Hahahaha! Another victim of the leftist propaganda.
Ofc he was spinning it, the entire thing was a honest attmpt to not spin it (too much) but it clearly failed.
I will not explain how, not my job. The reality will explain to you why you are delusional much better than I ever could. Just have some patience.
- what about the EU taking responsibility for its own security instead of expecting American tax payers to foot the bill? The EU's GDP is more than 10x higher than Russia's GDP. Provided the EU started prioritizing its expenses, it could easily afford to supply Ukraine with all the weapons needed to defeat Russia decisively.
He is daydreaming, not saying nothing at all. Ukraine is doomed. Donald trump may have power over Ukraine but can't say the same to Russia.
LOL You don't see the spin in this channel?
Lucid and circumspect as always. Thanks, Anders, so good to see you!
Thank you as always! You’re one of the most trustworthy experts out there in my view
So many great questions here. Being honest about what we know and do not know leads so many good questions and reasoned analysis which would be obscured if ideology was considered. Thank you!
We know more than what this video is saying. The former U.K. PM and two of Trump's foreign policy advisors have clearly laid out Trump's plan which is to force both sides to accept the border where the line of fighting is now. Trump would use the threat of pulling all
support or fully supporting Ukraine to threaten both sides with unacceptable loss if they don't agree.
Thank you for the analysis and your thoughts, Anders. I really appreciate your videos 🙏
Thank you so much, Mr Nielsen. It is always good to hear one of the few sober minds talk about security politics.
Thank you Anders for this profound, informed and balanced analysis
Thank you for the level headed commentary.
Much love to everyone from an environmental science graduate in the UK.
Thank you to Anders for teaching about foreign/defence policy, it's been helpful in understanding a key driver in my environmental policy and energy modules.
As a fellow Brit, I agree
Anders, you always have such useful insights - especially, like now, when there is so much uncertainty. Thank you.,
A clear and concise summing up of the situation as always, keep it up my friend, people need to know what's going on
Been waiting for your analysis, thank you for your service!
The most reliable constant is probably that Trump acts in favor of Trump. Always. That's why I like Professor Gerdes' approach: the task at hand is to find and establish a narrative where Trump sees a big boost (or avoidance of a loss) for himself in Ukraine winning. He also gives an example: "Donald, do you really want to be the first US president losing against russia?"
Amusing to suggest academic condemnation means diddly squat to Trump, his voters, or backers like Musk.
Trump can give Ukraine to Russia in its entirety and simply declare victory. I promise you Americans will buy that fully. Just so long as there is still pizza beer and football.
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have a bad reputation among conservatives anymore so saying Ukraine was giving to Russia isn't a big deal to them. Putin has successfully advertised Russia as a "conservative anti-LGBT haven" and they suck it right up even though it's a corrupt authoritarian dictatorship and an enemy
He acts dumb, he is not dumb he is a russian asset. And be sure that they will package the Ukranian loss very nicely.
Dump only cares about money. He doesn't care about the American people and doesn't care about Ukraine retaining its territory and independence. If Putin covertly offered him first dibs on choice development sites for luxury resorts and golf courses around the Black Sea he would be up for that and he would do as Putin's bidding.
Trump has no problem with letting Russia have whatever part of Ukraine it has occupied, then declare a victory because he ended the war.
As a half Swede, I really appreciate your informative videos 🇸🇪🇩🇰
What has being a "half Swede" got to do with it?
@@Cloudman572 Depends which half, I guess.
@@Cloudman572 The video host is Danish, and Denmark is Sweden's neighbour
@@oliversherman2414 Ukraine is Russia's neighbour so what?
@@Cloudman572 I know. What's your point?
Was feeling depressed for Ukraine Poland Sweden and Norway before your videos. Thanks Mr Anders.
Thank you, Anders- Dyakuyu! Once again, very to the point! A lot of things are still in the dark, somewhere under yellowish hair...
Thanks, Anders. Being the breathe of fresh air on this is so calming.
Thank you yet again Anders. Always the level head!
How i want this to go...
EU tells Orban to sit and spin.
South Korea backfills European artillery.
Within the next year or two Europe needs to get super serious about its own defense.
Partner with Poland.
Putin just said that his economy is collapsing and the embargos are working... Ukraine can get this over the goal line without the US.
I am so sorry my country has failed Europe. 😢
Americans will always do the right thing after they’ve tried everything else first
@@BTC9403 it seems this is an exception and USA really decided to end. Just it. New world order will be without Americans deciding, France and Ukraine are the ones who have most influence now. UK can hop along, Germany with Scholtz REALLY wants to sink with America but they can do a 180 and join French instead.
And I will see Mr Nielsen again...... next time 😎
Thanks for the great work
Excellent introduction. Thank You Anders!!!
Tak for analysen Anders, som altid nogle gode pointer.
Congratulations on 200k , been around since you had like 40k 🤯
Same here, since maybe 10k or 17k. It's good to see how his channel has grown, and well deserved.
+1 now :)
He deserves 200M!
@@larsrons7937 totally deserved. By far the best information available on UA-cam regarding Ukraine. People don’t understand just how valuable his input is, considering his real life work
Straight-forward, clear analysis. Thank you again.
Thank you Anders!! Your intelligent, easily understandable analysis, is why I subscribed. Again, thank you!
As an American I can say that the Trump supporters really see Ukraine as an insignificant issue. Their main issue is the immediate world around them, they are real isolationists. Sort of like we were in the 1930’s. It’s a shame but there is nothing I can do to change that.
It is indeed sad, but OTOH I always get a kick out of somebody nasty getting what they want and then discovering that the situation is now much worse than before. They might have elected Trump to fix their economy but that's like getting the fox to look after your remaining chickens. The results will delightful for any of us not living in the US.
You can understand the worldview though. In essence this is the third time we've bailed out Europe with force of arms in the last 150 years. It's about time they carried themselves. I don't want to see Ukraine thrown over the side to look after ourselves but that's a likely scenario. European arrogance and ingratitude only makes that option easier to carry through.
@@SVSky You have view that is self absolving. It was the US that pushed NATO expansion. Merkel and Sarkozy warned against inducting Ukraine, fearing to would lead to war - but Bush twisted their hand. It was the US that financed the 2014 coup in Ukraine that brought neo Nazi, anti Russian nationalists into power. From that day on war was inevitable.
You have not bailed out anyone, you created the Ukrainian problem with the 2014 coup - and you are going to walk away. This is after saying you will support Ukraine for however long it takes, after refusing to reply to Putin's request to guarantee Russia's security, and after scuttling the peace agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The US incited the war, you dragged Europe into it, you blocked the peace agreement in Turkey, and now that you are defeated, you say Ukraine is Europe's problem, we are sick and tired of your wars! Shameless fellow.
Europe and Ukraine are at fault no doubt - for consenting to be US vassals. They deserve what they are getting. But don't put on airs of innocence. Get it, scumbag ?
And you Dems didn’t give 2 shits about Ukraine until it became an issue in Congress. I have followed many sites for a long time. You people were not there.
@@SVSky Elephant in the room. Even smaller European nations like Sweden are capable of building nukes (The Brits and French have had them for decades). Next thing will be countries all over the world following suit and building nukes
Thank you, I was waiting for your take on this.
"Biden administration's policy on Ukraaine where they've been providing consistent military assistance on an onsgoing basis so that Ukraine can continue to fight" is a painfully precise and honest description.
Yes, but in an incremental way. A way Russia has been able to respond to.
Expect Trump to do what nobody expected - to go hard out in support for Ukraine. So hard that Russia gives up.
@ovekkjlstad7703 That is what some Ukrainian analysts hope for and I think they are right.
@@ovekkjlstad7703If he does I will be the first to praise him. But there's no indication of that and given Trump's infatuation with Putin I won't hold my breath.
@@HR_8035_YEA Crazy to think that there is a war going on in Europe, and we don't know which side America is going to back. Its wild.
Biden's policy prolonged the war, destruction and deaths on both sides, turning it into a war of attrition, like WW1. It is the worst case scenario and Biden bungled it all up.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Er okay pal
Heroyam slava! 💙💛
My earlier comment was jacked! Thanks for your channel & unbiased opinion.
thank you for this pleasantly objective, calm and competent analysis, which leaves a little hope for Ukraine after all...
Thank you for being a constant voice of reason during this awful war of aggression that Putin has visited on a peaceful independent country. Ukraine should inspire us all to help more - they are fighting like lions.
I know. I felt exactly the same about the American wars of agression based on lies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. The word the west loves so damn much, but never seem to practice them selves. Did you feel the same way about those wars?
@@zi0 She did not feel the same about those wars Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. She imagines she has shared values with Ukrainians because they are white.
@@zi0 Only Ukraine isn't Saddam's Iraq, or the taliban, or ISIS, or ethnic cleansing Serb nationalists. And Russia isn't fighting to remove a murderous warmongering dictator. It's fighting for a murderous warmongering dictator.
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 you are not ignorant,just plane dumb,talking (writing)about things you dont know....
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 You seem to forget all those wars were based on lies. This is no exception. The historical rule is that American wars are based on lies, the Spanish did nothing to blow up the battleship man that was an accident. The Lusitania was not a peaceful liner. It was a military cargo ship with human shields. The golf Tonkin incident never happened. The testimony of Nayirah, the 15 year old Kuwaiti girl was a complete fabrication. There were no weapons of mass destr in Iraq.
American wars aren’t righteous crusades they are tapestries of lies designed to advance the interests of American elites.
Do yourself and the world a favor and stop being a wide-eyed believer.
Thanks Anders
Thank you for your great analysis 👍 Its great to hear some wise and informed thoughts following the disappointing news from the US.
To everyone picking the centrist view of "thanks for not taking sides", everything he just said is that Trump will limit NATO and Ukraine. AT BEST, hes not bad, and that an extremely low bar. People voted for someone who doesnt even have a clear position on a war in Europe which is unbelievable to me, but then again a lot of americans dont seem to know whether Europe is a country, a continent or a county so im not surprised.
Trump position is that America is strong militarily and economically and so holds all the cards. It can force Ukraine and Russia to agree to a deal else Trump fully supports the other side. This is what the former UK PM and two of Trump's defense strategists are telling us.
Trump has a very clear position on the war in Ukraine, he wants it to stop.
Thanks! I always appreciate your videos. With this one: My wife even followed and is sharing! (She doesn’t like many of the things I watch!)
Great and condensed analysis as usual, thanks!
The only channel I hit Like before watching the video!
I do that with "A different bias" too
Anders i consider your videos a "must watch" 🥰🤗🦄❤💙💛❤
People like Anders make me confident that we have capable brains in our military. His videos are "must watch" to me too. Sadly I didn't find his channel until Ukraine's Kherson offensive two years ago. I wish I'd watched it back in 2021, then much more would've been clear to me in early 2022. Anders turned out to be very accurate in his predictions.
as a 16th Swede I really appreciate your informative videos
Huh? How your Swedish percentage relevant? You are aware that Anders is Danish, right? We are brother countries but decidedly NOT the same.
@@TheisKrarupHansen He/she is probably not aware that Swedes are always complaining about what Danes do and how stupid we are, though they decide to do the same some time later.
Closing the border to illegally intruding refugees: a couple of weeks later. Joining the EU: some decades later. Joining NATO: 75 years later.
As a 100% Brit, I fully appreciate what he does too. What's your genetic makeup got to do with anything??
Watching the decline of the America is very depressing for the free world.
America has been a big obstacle to freedom for a lot of countries. Countless coups and wars that destabilized and overthrew democratically elected governments. It's about time we stop sticking our noses into the rest of the world and putting our economic interests first.
Follow Peter Zeihan. I agree with his conclusions. USA is not declining. In fact it is becoming stronger and less reliant on free trade (now a net energy exporter). USA made a sweet deal for Europe BEFORE the end of WW2 known as Bretton Woods. USA agreed to let all of the allies dump their products in the US market and guaranteed protection of international shipping. All Europe had to do was build a military force capable of stopping the Soviet horde.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, USA never re-evaluated that agreement and we ran on auto-pilot for decades. Now we are reaching the point where the average American wants to know why they don't have universal health care but have an expeditionary military capable of kicking anyone's butt around the world. Meanwhile, the Europeans bloated their welfare states and dismantled their military. A sizable portion of the USA electorate is fed up with the status quo and wants to know what's in it for them.
I'm a Reagan Republican, did not vote for Trump this election, but I fully understand why a lot fellow citizens are disgusted with the path we are on. Europe needs to step up and get their act together. Period. It has nothing to do with whether you can depend on USA military. You have no serious military to speak of. You have little in the way of expeditionary forces; You couldn't repeat the Afghan exercise today even if you had the political will.
USA can afford to abandon many of its so-called allies. Those allies can't afford USA abandoning them. They will need to start sucking up to whomever is running the United States. This is going to continue even after Trump leaves office. He's just the rampaging motormouth with no filter we have today. Both parties are turning populist and isolationist. No more free ride for Europe.
It pains me to see how the Biden administration has drip-fed support to Ukraine. If I had been in power, the supplies would have been massive and overwhelming like Reagan would have done. Russia today is a two-bit state with an economy one-tenth our size. Only their nukes protect them today...and the weak-spined western leaders like Biden and Scholz. If Nikki Haley had won the Republican nomination, I'm sure we would have had a great president willing to stand up to Putin, minimizing Ukraine's losses.
Slava Ukraini!
Why is the will of the American people seen as a decline. Those of us happy with this election see it as a return to better values.
@@kodiak2fitty I agree with most of your points, I just want to state that Trump is the last President who would spend less on the military and more on universal healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor do I believe that a Trump voter (or even a Republican voter in general) would want the US to have universal healthcare.
@@BenjaminFranz-y5f not disagreeing with you. But we did devote our budget to being the apex military. It probably would not be the case if we had universal healthcare. In fact it is going to get harder to maintain what we have and defend against China with our ballooning debt, social security, and Medicare costs.
Thank you for the update Anders 👍👍
Slava Ukraini from Iceland 💥
Venlig hilsen til Anders. Tusind tak.
Fabulous summation Anders. Many thanks.
Go Ukraine
Tak for dine altid gode gennem gange og ud fra min opfattelse saglige belysninger af de forskellige emner du tager op, jeg ser altid frem til dine indslag
Thank you good sir!
You really helped to calm me down.
Keep up the good work.
Hi Anders - in a scenario where Trump completely cuts aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine buckles under Russian pressure; Do you believe certain European countries might step in directly to defend Ukraine, such as Poland, Romania, or even France?
It is possible. Poland probably. France has a very populist population and rule, so no. Also what would be the outcomes? All just to push Russians from the 3 regions? Not worth the effort, and probably they can't without the US.
I think Poland and the Baltic countries might because they know what will happen if Ukraine falls.
I hope so. Followed, in the long term, by pivoting to South Korea and European countries for weapons and ammunition.
Without the USAF and the US nuclear umbrella? Nit bloody likely.
@@kurtwicklund8901 France and England have nuclear weapons
I think Trump knowing why he wants something is already too much of an assumption.
He typically just says something on a whim and then doubles down on it.
Trump's Jet has met with the Russia's diplomatic plane like 8 times this year alone.
Trump sees Russians more than his wife (not counting mistresses, because he's that... Christian).
That situation where the American defence industry continues to supply expensive weapons to Ukraine, and the Europeans pay for it, would be very attractive to the new President Trump. It would maintain the defence industry jobs and release funds for other projects which would benefit the USA. That may horrify European politicians, but they (we, I'm British) should end our dependence on the US anyway.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Always the best on the Internet.
Thank you
Thanks a million Anders for this amazing update. I do however feel deflated that Trump won and fear for Europe’s future. Philip in Ireland ☘️🇮🇪☘️
Slava Ukrainei 🇺🇦🙏🇺🇦👍
Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
er okay thanks
I worked in Iraqi Kurdistan and some Danes like Anders were employed to "negotiate" away any trouble with the Kurds or get to know if the Dae'sh (ISIS) were about. We never had any trouble , they were really good at talking situations down and avoiding misunderstandings leading to trouble...and everyone friendly and we even got truflles instead of troubles from the Kurds , People should learn to be more friendly and reasonable like Anders ... would say ? and things go better for sure
Thanks, your a credit to you country.
With most politicians, if they say something, you hold them to account. With Trump, you accept that whatever he has said could well have nothing to do with what he eventually decides!
Oh? did anyone hold Obama to account over all the promises he made? He even had the gall to make the same promises during his re-election as if he didn't have four years to keep them. Nobody cared. Everyone cheered, people voted for him once again. There is no system in our government to hold people to account regarding their promises. At best, you expect them to keep one or two of their big promises or at least make efforts towards them during their first term while ignoring most of the rest. Trump is no different.
As for the war in Ukraine, I think my fellow conservatives have lost the plot here. I don't know how aiding Ukraine became a bad thing. I hope that he will not stop providing aid to them, because we get to degrade Russia without spending American lives, and that can only be a good thing for American interests around the world. So many people on the right seem to be losing their mind over money being spent on stuff that doesn't benefit us, but we already do that on a massive scale, and Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket.
He has 24 hours, to the second after he takes his oath of office, to resolve the war. Otherwise, to paraphrase the president-elect, he will be "The Greatest Liar of All Time".
If you study him carefully, he is a sales associate who likes to make exaggerated claims. The greatest this, the best that. When he called President Zelenskyy the "greatest salesman of all time" that is projection of self, a compliment, in Trump-speak.
Most people don't hold them to account, most people shrug and think next election might be better if they're lucky.
What are you even talking about? When did the word accountable and politician go in the same sentence?
@@dinmavric5504You just used them in the same sentence.
This video pretty much sums up, the problem with Trump in general.
Not just now. But also in his first term.
He is unpredictable, and sees everything, as a black and white transaction. Disregarding how most things are interconnected.
He has said a lot of stuff, that he wants to do. But on pretty much every topic, he has simplified the problems, to such a degree. That his supporters believe, that there is an easy solution. And that he will just do that.
E.g. "End the war in 24 hours".
Even if he were to pressure Ukraine, into accepting all of Russias demands, without pushback. That would still take months, before there is a chance, that the fighting stops.
The last time he promised to build, the "Big beautiful wall". Apparently that didn't happen, because Mexico didn't pay for it. And his grifter friends stole wall donations.
He wanted to repeal and replace the 'Affordable Care Act'. It wasn't completely dismantled. He didn't even try. And he still doesn't have a Healthcare plan, 8 years later, just "the concept of a plan".
In reality, on most topics, he is clueless. Even more so then most politicians, before taking office, and looking at 'the books'. His statements have been sufficiently vague, to allow voters to imagine, that what he means, is what they hope for.
His policy decisions will depend on, who he taps for his administration.
And will be adjusted along the way, as initial effects start showing.
The last time. He had a bigger turnover, in his administration, then any president in recent times.
To be clear, though not American, I'm terrified in general. Because we know the kind of people, who will be in his administration.
We just have no way of knowing, just yet. Which of all the bad things, they will focus on, or how exactly they will do it, and to which extent.
Only two thing is clear, at the moment.
He and the Republican party has more power, to do what they want this time. And for once, they have the mandate of the people.
Meaning, for better or worse, his presidency will not be, a carbon copy of his first one.
And they have a VP, that will carryon the (project 2025) torch, should he not succeed. In extending his presidency, beyond the 2 term limit.
I doubt that "Trump pressuring Ukraine" will cause Ukraine to concede. In order for Trump to even approach achieving what he has claimed he will do (e.g., by "ending the war in 24 months instead of 24 hours . . .) he would likely need to INVADE Ukraine and FORCE the Ukrainians to surrender. That almost certainly will not happen.
You are not all wrong but he did pursue the Abraham Accords which was a rather surprising breakthrough using a very non-conventional approach. He may not be smart but he may chose to stop approaches that aren't working and do the opposite.
Thank you and have a great week.
Anders, Thank you for the clear and brief analysis of the type that is usually presented behind closed doors at think tanks or with public policy announcements full of endless caveats,jargon or vague diplospeak. Your analyses are always accessible to the somewhat informed layman.👍
I wanted to make a video like this. Now how do I do it without sounding I just copied your homework?
Great video, as always!
excellent clarity as always
The acquisition of the F-35 could end up being a huge headache for a lot of European countries, and probably also why Spain has opted out of it in favor of the Eurofighter.
It was a mistake.
Shouldn't buy US equipment at all.
Yeap, am thinking the same since the last Trump administration. You just can't trust the USA anymore as a trusted partner. I wish the country I live in had not bought the F-35s, but that decision was made by politicians, and they are not the brightest 😐
the f-35 is buggy and incomplete. anyone that buys them should be expected to take on a role as a beta tester for an unfinished product.
@@AttlanttizzWho then should have taken decision what to buy based on which facts??
@@claus-not-santa I'm no expert, but I think the decision given the political climate in the USA was wrong. It's less about who made the decision, more about that I think the decision was wrong.
In 2016, Trump wanted to cut the prices of drugs in the US, and made a big deal out of it. After taking office he held a meeting with all the CEOs of the pharma industry, who explained him what they and the US would lose if he did that... and we never heard of lowering drugs prices again.
Let's see if he gets into a meeting with the military industrial complex.
He is a clueless moron. Can’t do anything in Ukraine…
So between you, torsten heinrich and jake broe, your Assessment is the best, because you think broader :) Thank you!
The video I've been waiting for since yesterday morning. Thank you.
so many doom and gloom scenarios floating around these days - thank you for the level headedness
Remember: in 2016, Trump said he had a plan to replace Obama Care and that he would replace it. He ran hard on this. He never had a plan. He never repealed Obama Care. So, we really have no idea what Trump will do.
We know there will be tax cuts for the rich. Beyond that? Anyone’s guess.
It wasn't from lack of trying though. Three Republican Senators joined with the Democrats to vote down the bill that would have undone it.
@@shanebrasher7584 Doesn't change the fact that, to this day, Trump still doesn't have a health care plan.
He couldn’t replace it due to lack of support but he made changes that actually saved it……. be fair
@@Grouse2275 Missing the point: he still doesn't have a plan so you can't trust anything he says. You just have to hope for the best.
Thank you Anders for another excellent update. Slava Ukraini!
Great chat as usual. Was waiting for this one. Keep on keeping on.
Anders, Very astute. You are helping me understand my own country’s behavior better than any of our U.S. Media does. Thanks!
You are the best thanks
Wanting specifics from Trump is like wanting an elephant to understand quantum theory.
My money is on the elephants before the Trumpers.
Or a donkey...
but elephants do understand quantum theory...
@@kurtwicklund8901 My money is on stupid left wing fanatics spouting platitudes and other assorted inanities...live it.
Since Trump speaks at a 4th grade level, I wonder if he thinks at a 4th grade level
You can’t just end it there !! This episode has to be continued 😅
Thank you, I was waiting for such a video
Outstanding analysis from Anders. Our go-to.
Åh,men altså, Anders, jeg elsker dine opdateringer.
Du formidler en god forståelse for kompleksiteten i konflikterne og klæder en på til at forholde sig til situationen.
Det er verdensklasse folkeoplysning.
Nu skal jeg igang med at læse den der bog om krigens logik ;)
Thanks!
Northen Europe plus Baltics incl Poland n Ukraine, ev UK work on this more jointly, to be less dependent on US. Less countries= faster process. Geography matters, we have more to loose
Very insightful!
I always appreciate your insight. Thank you.
Thinking that you can predict what Trump will do next, or thinking it will make any kind of rational sense is a fool’s errand.
The only thing you can predict with certainty is that he will take credit if things go well, and blame others if things go badly. And that’s it really.
Obummer did the same
@@cmtwgrdk2748 irrelevant. The only good presidents were Lincoln and Kennedy and Trump had a chance to be third but he screwed it majorly!
The way you frame Biden escalation management makes it so cynical. But I partly believe that the best outcome for him is an Ukraine and Russia that are both weak enough to not cause problems but still be stable. This approach just leads to maximum amount of suffering
Yes, and it's not Trump's style which is why he's going to get this over with one way or the other. Personally, I believe that he will not be acting in Russia's interests. Even a compromise where say Russia leaves the Donbas and keeps Crimea would have every chance of toppling Putin. After which Ukraine might be able to get it back. Would that be ok if it ended bloodshed and destruction or nah?
Weak Ukraine means strong russia and vice versa, trying to make both weak ends with World War 3 ongoing and us two being the only relevant armies in the world. BOTH are WAY stronger now than in 2022.
Escalation management is simple appeasement with extra words.
Yeah, I'm really not sure why anybody thinks this whole "escalation management" thing has even been working. The Russians have been the ones to escalate every single time, without any cause behind it even.
Thank you ❤
awesome video as always, thank you.