Especially as we are in uncharted territory with historically low bond yields and high stock valuations, looking for long term hedges like gold/gold miners makes sense as a piece of an investor's portfolio.
I got a feeling these sequences of events may occur: 1. Rising interest rates cause markets to crash 2. Safe haven USD skyrockets causing gold to crash 3. The world goes into a recession, sentiment changes 4. Gold and silver skyrockets
I got a feeling that what we all expect will not happen, something new:-) Black swan my friend :-) Perhaps: central banks prevent markets to crash, everybody rushes into buying stocks, gold goes nowhere, the economy stays ok for a while :-) You never know :-)
US dollar/treasury bills are "considered" one of the safest investment securities because there is much faith in the US government being able to pay their debts and not going bankrupt.
"Gold is a hedge against stupid monetary policy", congratulation Sven! This is the clearest and most effective insight about investing in gold I heard until now. Do you really think 1)that central banks could keep this "economic expansion" for another 3-4 years? 2)in this scenario, gold drops below 800? Isn't it more likely that it will remain relatively stable around today evaluations? I mean, it doesn't seem that there is that strong negative correlation between goold price and growing economy, from 2014 the gold price remained more or less stable without a significative bear trend even if the economy grew...
Hi Duino, I have to say what can happen because if not here everybody comes after me:-) As for the likelihoods, I can just say that everything can happen today and I whish to be prepared.
Thanks as always for educating us Sven! Gold as a hedge... Not as an investment... As Sven said at the 4:55 mark of video. Completely agree! I'm not a gold bug, but understand the need to own the metals at times. I don't know why exactly, but I prefer miners for gold exposure, but am willing to buy SLV for my silver exposure. I was lucky and started a position in SLV just yesterday and plan to buy a bit more if it drops further. I bought a ~few months back~ around $15.20 and impulsively sold when it rose above $16.00. Stupid luck to buy back lower and nothing else... I'm a reluctant buyer in metals and will likely allocate no more than 5% of my portfolio to metals (miners and SLV).
Pedal to the metal, I guess. I really hate hearing the cliché from back in the days "gold is the best investment of all time" but to be honest if the 'crash' everybody's talking about finally happens, your money could be really safe(er) with gold. Great video, I really ended up learning a lot from it! Thanks!
Great Video! Regarding with the gold price, I have one concern. If global financial crisis (GFC) comes, the price of US dollar will surge, which will impair the value of gold significantly. Would it be a better idea to buy gold/ gold miners several months after the next GFC?
Sven this is something I jumped into to early at investing and I may be punished hard for it. I'm glad you are voicing that these fiat based currencies are crazy...I feel like the only young guy viewing stocks in the low or dividend stocks vs growth stocks....
a gold hedge should not be correlated to cash - you never know what will happen. Gold is a really long term hedge, think how it went from $300 to $1200 in the last 15 years, that kind of hedge!
I like the risk/reward ratio that you presented for a small (5-10) % of ones portfolio. I hold that amount in bullion, but I've had success with gold miners in the past. I like the leverage aspect of the miners. Good stuff today, as always.
This is a huge movement for gold and was inevitable. It had to retest its major support. Major support is at $1,240- $1,235. If that breaks for more than a few days then sell all our gold stocks, for the rising/recovery wedge has broken.
It’s a matter of perspective. In reality gold has been in a general 12-13 hundred dollar trading range for the last two years. I agree that 1240 is a main technical support level, if you are a trader, but even then it is still mid range. Gold is highly cyclical and as we come near to the end of this debt cycle, commodities will increase in price. Don’t be surprised if the price pops up to 1375 in the next few months. Some analysts consider 1400, even 1475 by year end. That said it could go lower. If you have bought gold stocks based purely on the price of gold, then sell. Not because the price is going down, but because most good mining firms will be profitable at $800- 1000 gold, if yours isn’t at 1200, take your money and run, run for the hills
Im saying sell, not because the companies are doomed, but because gold may yet have a couple more years in this trading range if the support is broken. That being said I am betting it will hold.
I have, and I have received so many questions about it I start wondering whether the company has a social media campaign to increase its stock price:-))))
Very interesting! Just found out about your channel! Definitely something to look into. The fact that govts can print more just to decrease the debt due to inflation is fascinating. Thanks so much!
Sven, Ray Dalio gave an interesting interview with Bloomberg where he commented on major risks in the economy that could drive the next downturn. To paraphrase, he mentioned that the accumulation of "IOU" type obligations (e.g. debt, health care, pensions, etc) coupled with the adversarial relationships between world powers (e.g. USA and China on trade) and the high amounts of outstanding government debt could catalyze the next crisis. He suggested that the Fed will face a difficult situation when attempting to resolve that issue without increasing yields to the point that will severely depress asset prices. Moreover, he commented that the Fed issuing more bonds will likely not end well because countries are already oversaturated with US government debt, such that they will be unwilling to take on more in the scale needed to resolve the issue. Bloomberg censored Dalio's comments (perhaps at his request) in two sections of the interview. The first is at 22:05, when Ray was giving his presumptive view about the cap of the 10-year Treasury yield that the Fed will likely allow. The second is at 23:33, when he was talking to the interviewer about the diversification needed for protection and (I imagine) the kinds of asset classes that he thinks will do well in the economic downturn scenario that he described. It is interesting as well that Greg Jensen (Co-CIO at Bridgewater) issued a statement that Bridgewater is now bearish on financial assets, even going so far as to say that they are net short equities. Can you please comment on this scenario that Dalio described, and share some thoughts on how such events will effect various asset classes including gold, equities, and particularly bonds and real estate? If the Fed cannot raise yields past 4.5% like Dalio suggests, what else would they do, and what would be the implications? Simply quantitative easing, or are there other alternatives? Is buying gold, TIPS, etc. the ideal strategy to hedge against that possible scenario? It strikes me that much of Ray's message coincides with the points you raise about hedging and All Weather asset allocation. Thanks very much in advance for any information or analysis that you can provide. Links: Interview (relevant comments start around 11:30)- ua-cam.com/video/qxoywj7cEIg/v-deo.html Article about Bridgewater being bearish - www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-05/bridgewater-we-are-bearish-almost-all-financial-assets
The reasons for market prices are technically correct but the recent price influence is mainly currency manipulation. The quantitative easing created over $12 Trillion but only increased the Fed balance sheet $3,5 Trillion. Gold is being suppressed. Look at August CME shorts. It's massive. The price will be manipulated down to maximize the gain. The short squeeze potential could drive the price to the moon.
Sven, I have been thinking on building a portfolio over 10 years and that lead me to being on your side so I agree with you on that. The problem or better say alternative I faced a couple days ago is I read that Buffett almost always use the same discount rate for every company (T.Bond rate) and compare companies based on Margin of Safety where it should work at its best. What do you think of such an approach of scanning bulks of companies and buying those with highest discount? I know I should not spent so much time thinking about discount rates, but I cannot because It very affects my valuations. I have been a student of Aswath Damodaran for several years and I have been taught to adjust beta bottom up beta) for risk, adjust riskfree rate based on my currency choice etc. I will find it very uaeful to watch your thought on discount rates in the video even if you will tell that it is a pure trash or whatever, I just need to make up my mind and it seems like I will bot be able to do it on my own. Please, help me with that and thank you very much for sharing your knowledge with us. As I said once to one of UA-camrs like you abd it is applicable for both of you - if your channel would go on IPO, I would buy it no matter what because it is really undervalued :))
haha, thanks for the IPO :-) As for discount rates, perhaps the best way is to look at other opportunities, Buffett holds his cash in Treasuries, short term ones and therefore the discount rate. My investment world is a bit broader than his, so my required return in 10% usually.
Sven, may I suggest to you adding GoldMining Inc. for your review of items in this subject. They're on the TXS and OTCQX. You can see their numbers on their website. I predict 800%-1000% gain in the next 3-4 years or sooner. Certainly not overnight. I'd like to know what you think. P.S. I have 26% of my portfolio in PM's but less than 8% in gold for now.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I have always thought they would use it as a collateral or push it back into the market at some stage. Just as a store of value sounds to me a weak motivation when you can use the same capital and make it working like Sovreign Funds do. I feel like I'm missing out something here
It seems unlikely that central banks will be able to hike interest rates too much higher. The US economy seems to be sputtering right now after the last few hikes. There's also the aspect of quantitative tightening weighing on the economy. I'm more leveraged to silver than gold, but I'm still hurting from the latest downward moves. You didn't talk much about the supply of gold and silver in this video. It seems like that could also have a big affect on their value.
supply talk is something I hear mostly from gold and silver bugs, I see it more as sentiment is the key factor. If it would be supply I should already be much higher.
Look, what does Sven know. He only has a PhD in Finance. Instead I suggest listening to Peter Hug, he is the head of metals at Canadian bullion company Kitco. He’s been there, done that and worn the Tshirt. His full time job is to make money trading and selling gold as it has been for 20+ years, he is a highly respected industry figure (he’s also Canadian). Kitco have an excellent channel and website. His advice is.. err...only buy gold as a small portion of your portfolio and to use it as a hedge....oh dear, you should have listened to Uncle Sven. It saves time.
Hi Sven. I've been thinking. As gold is scarcity it will have a bigger price. However, this also means a much higher cost for miners to get it. Also, I think gold is available for maybe another 50 years of mining, so, after that time, miners really will have a problem. In that case gold may be better than miners. Regards.
Novagold insider sold a lot of stocks in recent months like other gold miner stocks. and NG balance sheet,cash flow is in bad shape. If you check it's peers(Only looking at Gold for now here) B2Gold looks much more attractive. Even the other gold stock which you suggest in other video , Harmony Gold is a good one.
My miner is still doing okay. But it has been getting rougher and rougher. I have faith in this company and will hold for the long run. It's only 1 percent of my portfolio so if it goes to zero then nothing large is lost.
Falling gold is a good opportunity for selling gold ETFs and buying physical gold instead. You will still stay in gold, but also lower taxes by loss harvesting.
I personally believe that dollar value will go down because US wants to become a bigger exporter, so there will be a lot of money printing, during the next downturn. That will also lower the value of 1.12trillion $ treasuries that the Chinese are holding. I'm long on gold. EGO is easily a 10 bagger. Within the next 5-7 years.
Too bad you didn't point out that looking at the past betting on miners had proved TO NOT be a leverage bet on gold prices (cost for miners always went up and shareholders got scammed every time)...
depending on the miner, depending on the time you are looking at, etc. a lot of expectations. I am not saying it is perfectly correlated :-) And as said, a lot of work needs to go in before investing in miners :-)
Lowest cost gold miner ABX, Lowest cost Silver miner Svm (by far) All the good Silver miners trading at bargain basement prices, Taho will double when Escobal Re-opens. HL and PAAS chronically undervalued. Lowest risk way to play precious metals is Royalty Streamers. Check out SAND, has lots of cheap metal. Coming on stream soon.
Also worth noting, is an alternative to gold miners: gold asset management firms like SPROTT. They pay a decent dividend and are also leveraged to gold. The more people buy gold the more management fees they collect.
ThinkThinkThink they also own a lot of the physical ETFs as gold goes up the management fees go up... performance fees et al... lots of cash and not much debt.. solid balance sheet...
The best mining Co is GSS they have lowest operating costs and all the mines are in the money now. And price is under $1. This company will make you happy. $$$
I remember placing a large bet on gold leading up to the election. With the thought process that it might spike if the markets tanked.. Flight to safety, etc.. It did the opposite and was a nice lesson learned 😋
I personally dont think gold could go to $700. Maybe $900 minimum. That is because yes deflation is coming but that is in dollar term, central banks of China and Russia are hoarding like never and when price reach $700, you will get almost double the amount. Im sorry but there is simply not much gold going around. These Asians are certainly not buying paper. Btw, gold is merely hedge, if u have a million dollar then you can go for any percentage you want, if I have $10k, I wouldnt even think of owning gold, $10k is not that much today.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Haha good one Sven. Profit amplifies when gold price double but so do the losses. Are miners going to pump when gold at $700? Very unlikely, it is more likely they stop mining, the losses will be less.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Great back to Croatia then! Another great video and I love to read the comments where I learn so much too. I notice alot of comments are from other youtube financial vloggers, indicating to me the quality of the content Sven.
Gold is the hedge to treasuries. So I'm adding to my treasury position as we near the inversion, but I'm also adding to my gold position to hedge the treasuries... in case the US dollar collapses :D
Especially as we are in uncharted territory with historically low bond yields and high stock valuations, looking for long term hedges like gold/gold miners makes sense as a piece of an investor's portfolio.
I got a feeling these sequences of events may occur:
1. Rising interest rates cause markets to crash
2. Safe haven USD skyrockets causing gold to crash
3. The world goes into a recession, sentiment changes
4. Gold and silver skyrockets
I got a feeling that what we all expect will not happen, something new:-) Black swan my friend :-)
Perhaps:
central banks prevent markets to crash, everybody rushes into buying stocks, gold goes nowhere, the economy stays ok for a while :-) You never know :-)
G Yip
What do you mean with number 2? the US dollar a safe heaven?
...I'm lost
US dollar/treasury bills are "considered" one of the safest investment securities because there is much faith in the US government being able to pay their debts and not going bankrupt.
"Gold is a hedge against stupid monetary policy", congratulation Sven! This is the clearest and most effective insight about investing in gold I heard until now.
Do you really think
1)that central banks could keep this "economic expansion" for another 3-4 years?
2)in this scenario, gold drops below 800? Isn't it more likely that it will remain relatively stable around today evaluations? I mean, it doesn't seem that there is that strong negative correlation between goold price and growing economy, from 2014 the gold price remained more or less stable without a significative bear trend even if the economy grew...
Hi Duino,
I have to say what can happen because if not here everybody comes after me:-) As for the likelihoods, I can just say that everything can happen today and I whish to be prepared.
markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent- john maynard keynes
they are arguing whether it was Keynes who said it but that is less important - the sentence is the important one
Thanks as always for educating us Sven!
Gold as a hedge... Not as an investment... As Sven said at the 4:55 mark of video. Completely agree! I'm not a gold bug, but understand the need to own the metals at times. I don't know why exactly, but I prefer miners for gold exposure, but am willing to buy SLV for my silver exposure. I was lucky and started a position in SLV just yesterday and plan to buy a bit more if it drops further. I bought a ~few months back~ around $15.20 and impulsively sold when it rose above $16.00. Stupid luck to buy back lower and nothing else... I'm a reluctant buyer in metals and will likely allocate no more than 5% of my portfolio to metals (miners and SLV).
portfolio allocation is key!
Also for optionality, check out Seabridge Gold!
will do!
"I'll be DIGGING deeper into the gold mine sector"
Pedal to the metal, I guess. I really hate hearing the cliché from back in the days "gold is the best investment of all time" but to be honest if the 'crash' everybody's talking about finally happens, your money could be really safe(er) with gold. Great video, I really ended up learning a lot from it! Thanks!
P.S: whoever disliked this video really didn't listen to it.
some people don't like when I say that gold might go to $600 :-)
People don't like the truth if it's painful...
Thanks so much for the info
Great Video! Regarding with the gold price, I have one concern. If global financial crisis (GFC) comes, the price of US dollar will surge, which will impair the value of gold significantly. Would it be a better idea to buy gold/ gold miners several months after the next GFC?
I don't know what will happen :-) Therefore I can only have some exposure, if gold goes down, buy more etc.
Can gold price go below producing cost?
without a problem, it is all about supply and demand, not about cost with gold!
Sven this is something I jumped into to early at investing and I may be punished hard for it. I'm glad you are voicing that these fiat based currencies are crazy...I feel like the only young guy viewing stocks in the low or dividend stocks vs growth stocks....
Hey Everybody! Another good video by Dr. Nick.
Hello. What do you think about PSAU ETF?
don't like ETFs in general :-)
Are novo stocks worth buying ?
I would have to analyse it in depth again.
Thanks Sven. After the XAU/USD performance today I was hoping you'd do a video on Gold :-) Good man
you see, your hope my command:-)
If you were going to create a pizza pie on m1finance what gold and silver companies would you include at what percentage
Let me first finish looking at China and then we can look at gold :-)
Another good video Sven! Would also love you hear your thoughts on SBUX now that we're under $50 and the management is changing.
nothing changed there for me :-) We know the long term return approximately there!
Hi Sven. Is hedging a cash position with a 5% stake in gold (and 95% cash) also hedging?
Or is this the same as speculating?
a gold hedge should not be correlated to cash - you never know what will happen. Gold is a really long term hedge, think how it went from $300 to $1200 in the last 15 years, that kind of hedge!
I had NEM $22 when gold was at $375 and sold at $64 around $1500. Physical gold outperformed the stock!
I like the risk/reward ratio that you presented for a small (5-10) % of ones portfolio. I hold that amount in bullion, but I've had success with gold miners in the past. I like the leverage aspect of the miners. Good stuff today, as always.
Thanks Phil, I'll be re-looking at miners soon, just to be sure about my hedges
This is a huge movement for gold and was inevitable. It had to retest its major support. Major support is at $1,240- $1,235. If that breaks for more than a few days then sell all our gold stocks, for the rising/recovery wedge has broken.
It’s a matter of perspective. In reality gold has been in a general 12-13 hundred dollar trading range for the last two years. I agree that 1240 is a main technical support level, if you are a trader, but even then it is still mid range. Gold is highly cyclical and as we come near to the end of this debt cycle, commodities will increase in price. Don’t be surprised if the price pops up to 1375 in the next few months. Some analysts consider 1400, even 1475 by year end. That said it could go lower. If you have bought gold stocks based purely on the price of gold, then sell. Not because the price is going down, but because most good mining firms will be profitable at $800- 1000 gold, if yours isn’t at 1200, take your money and run, run for the hills
Im saying sell, not because the companies are doomed, but because gold may yet have a couple more years in this trading range if the support is broken. That being said I am betting it will hold.
SuperiorSeven Well whatever happens, good luck with your investments. :)
That major support you highlight: what time frame are you looking at?
Next week, or we could bounce from here which is above support
Hi Sven is there a relationship between gold and stock prices? When stocks go down does gold go up? cheers sven!
nope, no correlation :-) Gold is a hedge against monetary policy:-)
Sven Have you looked at Alamos gold. No debt and 225m in cash. Be interested to hear your opinion.
Thanks for the videos
I have, and I have received so many questions about it I start wondering whether the company has a social media campaign to increase its stock price:-))))
actually the comment about is for another company:-) Sorry, looking at it now:-)
now I remember, the short mine life and high costs deferred me from this, not what I was looking for.
Did gold miner stocks not also drop during the last recession? If they did that would mean holding cash or physical gold is a better option..
that is the short term possibility, people went for liquidity and everything dropped. Also possible
Very interesting! Just found out about your channel! Definitely something to look into. The fact that govts can print more just to decrease the debt due to inflation is fascinating. Thanks so much!
Great to have you here!
Sven, Ray Dalio gave an interesting interview with Bloomberg where he commented on major risks in the economy that could drive the next downturn. To paraphrase, he mentioned that the accumulation of "IOU" type obligations (e.g. debt, health care, pensions, etc) coupled with the adversarial relationships between world powers (e.g. USA and China on trade) and the high amounts of outstanding government debt could catalyze the next crisis. He suggested that the Fed will face a difficult situation when attempting to resolve that issue without increasing yields to the point that will severely depress asset prices. Moreover, he commented that the Fed issuing more bonds will likely not end well because countries are already oversaturated with US government debt, such that they will be unwilling to take on more in the scale needed to resolve the issue.
Bloomberg censored Dalio's comments (perhaps at his request) in two sections of the interview. The first is at 22:05, when Ray was giving his presumptive view about the cap of the 10-year Treasury yield that the Fed will likely allow. The second is at 23:33, when he was talking to the interviewer about the diversification needed for protection and (I imagine) the kinds of asset classes that he thinks will do well in the economic downturn scenario that he described. It is interesting as well that Greg Jensen (Co-CIO at Bridgewater) issued a statement that Bridgewater is now bearish on financial assets, even going so far as to say that they are net short equities.
Can you please comment on this scenario that Dalio described, and share some thoughts on how such events will effect various asset classes including gold, equities, and particularly bonds and real estate? If the Fed cannot raise yields past 4.5% like Dalio suggests, what else would they do, and what would be the implications? Simply quantitative easing, or are there other alternatives? Is buying gold, TIPS, etc. the ideal strategy to hedge against that possible scenario? It strikes me that much of Ray's message coincides with the points you raise about hedging and All Weather asset allocation. Thanks very much in advance for any information or analysis that you can provide.
Links:
Interview (relevant comments start around 11:30)- ua-cam.com/video/qxoywj7cEIg/v-deo.html
Article about Bridgewater being bearish - www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-05/bridgewater-we-are-bearish-almost-all-financial-assets
The reasons for market prices are technically correct but the recent price influence is mainly currency manipulation.
The quantitative easing created over $12 Trillion but only increased the Fed balance sheet $3,5 Trillion.
Gold is being suppressed. Look at August CME shorts. It's massive. The price will be manipulated down to maximize the gain. The short squeeze potential could drive the price to the moon.
we will see :-)
Sven, I have been thinking on building a portfolio over 10 years and that lead me to being on your side so I agree with you on that. The problem or better say alternative I faced a couple days ago is I read that Buffett almost always use the same discount rate for every company (T.Bond rate) and compare companies based on Margin of Safety where it should work at its best. What do you think of such an approach of scanning bulks of companies and buying those with highest discount? I know I should not spent so much time thinking about discount rates, but I cannot because It very affects my valuations. I have been a student of Aswath Damodaran for several years and I have been taught to adjust beta bottom up beta) for risk, adjust riskfree rate based on my currency choice etc. I will find it very uaeful to watch your thought on discount rates in the video even if you will tell that it is a pure trash or whatever, I just need to make up my mind and it seems like I will bot be able to do it on my own. Please, help me with that and thank you very much for sharing your knowledge with us. As I said once to one of UA-camrs like you abd it is applicable for both of you - if your channel would go on IPO, I would buy it no matter what because it is really undervalued :))
haha, thanks for the IPO :-)
As for discount rates, perhaps the best way is to look at other opportunities, Buffett holds his cash in Treasuries, short term ones and therefore the discount rate. My investment world is a bit broader than his, so my required return in 10% usually.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Thank you!
Sven, there is data - thesis that gold miners severely underperform price of Gold. Hence investment in gold miners may be not a good idea after all.
I'll make a video on that:-) Gold miners in general are like ETFs, :-) Especially if you buy the bad :-)
Question is why is gold going down amid this trade war and commodities slump. Shouldn't be gold excluded from that commodity slump ?
Or this is coming only form the increasing strength of $$$...
dollar, a country selling a lot of it etc...
Sven, may I suggest to you adding GoldMining Inc. for your review of items in this subject. They're on the TXS and OTCQX. You can see their numbers on their website. I predict 800%-1000% gain in the next 3-4 years or sooner. Certainly not overnight. I'd like to know what you think. P.S. I have 26% of my portfolio in PM's but less than 8% in gold for now.
What if the central banks start to "use" that stored gold instead of just keeping it?
how can you use gold:-)
that's what I'm asking myself...if it's useless why central banks keep on stocking up? I don't get the logic
haha, because it is gold:-)
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I have always thought they would use it as a collateral or push it back into the market at some stage. Just as a store of value sounds to me a weak motivation when you can use the same capital and make it working like Sovreign Funds do. I feel like I'm missing out something here
it doesn't work like that:-) capital can be printed, gold can't
It seems unlikely that central banks will be able to hike interest rates too much higher. The US economy seems to be sputtering right now after the last few hikes. There's also the aspect of quantitative tightening weighing on the economy.
I'm more leveraged to silver than gold, but I'm still hurting from the latest downward moves.
You didn't talk much about the supply of gold and silver in this video. It seems like that could also have a big affect on their value.
supply talk is something I hear mostly from gold and silver bugs, I see it more as sentiment is the key factor. If it would be supply I should already be much higher.
can i buy gold coin in anywhere in the world without any taxes??
I don't know:-)
If gold went to $600 I wonder what state the world would be in... probably would be the best place to be...four foot man among pygmies is a giant...
That would be nice :-)
Look, what does Sven know. He only has a PhD in Finance. Instead I suggest listening to Peter Hug, he is the head of metals at Canadian bullion company Kitco. He’s been there, done that and worn the Tshirt. His full time job is to make money trading and selling gold as it has been for 20+ years, he is a highly respected industry figure (he’s also Canadian). Kitco have an excellent channel and website. His advice is.. err...only buy gold as a small portion of your portfolio and to use it as a hedge....oh dear, you should have listened to Uncle Sven. It saves time.
Hi Sven. I've been thinking. As gold is scarcity it will have a bigger price. However, this also means a much higher cost for miners to get it. Also, I think gold is available for maybe another 50 years of mining, so, after that time, miners really will have a problem. In that case gold may be better than miners. Regards.
in 50 years I'll be 85, will have other things to think about :-)))))
As for costs, find the lowest cost :-)
Novagold insider sold a lot of stocks in recent months like other gold miner stocks. and NG balance sheet,cash flow is in bad shape. If you check it's peers(Only looking at Gold for now here) B2Gold looks much more attractive. Even the other gold stock which you suggest in other video , Harmony Gold is a good one.
as said, it was not an analysis, just an example!
My miner is still doing okay. But it has been getting rougher and rougher. I have faith in this company and will hold for the long run.
It's only 1 percent of my portfolio so if it goes to zero then nothing large is lost.
that is how it is done!
Falling gold is a good opportunity for selling gold ETFs and buying physical gold instead. You will still stay in gold, but also lower taxes by loss harvesting.
taxes and gold, something to also think about!
I personally believe that dollar value will go down because US wants to become a bigger exporter, so there will be a lot of money printing, during the next downturn. That will also lower the value of 1.12trillion $ treasuries that the Chinese are holding. I'm long on gold. EGO is easily a 10 bagger. Within the next 5-7 years.
others will print too, so it is all relative :-)
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. still sounds like inflation to me so even better.
Too bad you didn't point out that looking at the past betting on miners had proved TO NOT be a leverage bet on gold prices (cost for miners always went up and shareholders got scammed every time)...
depending on the miner, depending on the time you are looking at, etc. a lot of expectations. I am not saying it is perfectly correlated :-) And as said, a lot of work needs to go in before investing in miners :-)
Near term the chart is weak. I will stay out and watch gold... (this means you should probably buy;)
haha,
Lowest cost gold miner ABX, Lowest cost Silver miner Svm (by far)
All the good Silver miners trading at bargain basement prices, Taho will double when Escobal Re-opens. HL and PAAS chronically undervalued.
Lowest risk way to play precious metals is Royalty Streamers. Check out SAND, has lots of cheap metal. Coming on stream soon.
thanks for sharing :-)
You can make a lot of money shorting those stocks
Also worth noting, is an alternative to gold miners: gold asset management firms like SPROTT. They pay a decent dividend and are also leveraged to gold. The more people buy gold the more management fees they collect.
Fresnillo...
ThinkThinkThink they also own a lot of the physical ETFs as gold goes up the management fees go up... performance fees et al... lots of cash and not much debt.. solid balance sheet...
If you don’t hold it you don’t own it! Physical gold for me!
good point and definitely a risk management decision.
The best mining Co is GSS they have lowest operating costs and all the mines are in the money now. And price is under $1. This company will make you happy. $$$
looks interesting, thanks for sharing - African miners are usually cheaper!
Every country's stock market is crashing and this is why I sold stocks to invest in precious metals, yes it's time to protect your self and family.
Gold is just a hedge. Good if you already have a fortune to protect. Otherwise only stocks and real estate pays return in long term.
gold in relation to how much money you have, not a bet thought!
What about diamonds? Can they be used as hedge as gold?
hm, only if those are your best friend:-)
Great vídeo, as always. Hair could be better...kidding
hahahah, will make it golden :-)
I remember placing a large bet on gold leading up to the election. With the thought process that it might spike if the markets tanked.. Flight to safety, etc..
It did the opposite and was a nice lesson learned 😋
that is how you learn the first few times:-)
I personally dont think gold could go to $700. Maybe $900 minimum. That is because yes deflation is coming but that is in dollar term, central banks of China and Russia are hoarding like never and when price reach $700, you will get almost double the amount. Im sorry but there is simply not much gold going around. These Asians are certainly not buying paper. Btw, gold is merely hedge, if u have a million dollar then you can go for any percentage you want, if I have $10k, I wouldnt even think of owning gold, $10k is not that much today.
Is there a difference between $700 or $900 :-)
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Haha good one Sven. Profit amplifies when gold price double but so do the losses. Are miners going to pump when gold at $700? Very unlikely, it is more likely they stop mining, the losses will be less.
👍🇸🇪
Novo Gold???? You must be on the other side of the world.
Sven, top quality video. Now im waiting for the car one, buy used car and sell after a few years. Cant wait to hear your opinion on that 🤩
if I have the time I'll film it this weekend, I need a nice scenery behind my car and I can't find that here in the Netherlands!
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Great back to Croatia then! Another great video and I love to read the comments where I learn so much too. I notice alot of comments are from other youtube financial vloggers, indicating to me the quality of the content Sven.
Gold is the hedge to treasuries. So I'm adding to my treasury position as we near the inversion, but I'm also adding to my gold position to hedge the treasuries... in case the US dollar collapses :D
as long as it all is balanced well :-)
first
Great!