Putin's weak point could give Ukraine breakthrough across Dnipro | Prof. Justin Bronk
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- Опубліковано 6 лис 2023
- "The Dnipro is still an area where Russia is arguably less heavily defensively dug in than elsewhere on the front."
Putin's forces reliance on flooding the Dnipro has left them with a crucial weak spot that Ukraine could exploit, RUSI's Prof. Justin Bronk tells Frontline.
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Hope Times Radio continue to have Justin as a guest. Well done you.
Oh yes. Justin is really one of the best analysts I have ever heard.
We need to FINALLY set up clear goals. Do we want Ukraine to win? If yes, then what do we need to do to achieve it? Do we really want Russia to rearm and do it better way in couple years?
totally agree - we should give EVERYTHING we have to let Ukraine win this war , and NOW enough Ukranian blood has been spilt due to the western governments dragging their heels in the fear of Putler.
It’s not so simple as ‘do we want Ukraine to win’
We might want Ukraine to win, but perhaps the price to achieve it might be considered to high? Would we be prepared to destroy the economies of the West and lose 3 million Ukranian lives if that is what it takes to win?
😂❗️
But remember J.B. said "every inch".
Wasn't that the objective/goal ???
..the big risk coming is the political shambles in the US..
Justin Bronk, a smart guy, UK and European politicians should listen to what he is saying. There is nothing more important than defence, this isn't 1990 any more.
I love Justin's work. He's often the voice of reason when everybody else is either in denial or emotional/irrational.
Thank you!
Justin Bronk gives a detailed and concise synopsis of the situation at hand. His arguments are clear and logical not just on the Ukrainian war but on what may be just around the corner. There needs to be a more strategic view in Defense Departments and Governments across Europe.
I couldn't agree more. I would only add that a strategic view with a sense of urgency is critical for Europe.
Justin Bronk is always excellent to listen to.
There are very few western voices speaking about how hard it would be to end the war by cutting off aid to Ukraine, or to how the aid to Ukraine can actually benefit Western economies. Mr. Bronck's perspectives are very refreshing and insightful. Thank you.
Without Western money how shall Ukraine fight the war. Keep in mind it is receiving both military and economic aid. The EU/US are paying Ukrainian civil servants.
Dont agree..lack of offensive success for Ukraine is LACK OF SUPPORT in early days,slow,dripping support..this would be over if Ukraine had resources to continue their first offensive..but they had to stop and Russia got time to dig in and prepair
*prepare. Come on 🤦🏼♂️
You don't agree with what? I think Justin just said that it would have been far easier to deter this war rather than fight it. If Ukraine had been sufficiently equipped, Putin wouldn't have done this. Once the war did start it could have been ended by now if everything that you needed was provided.
Also, Russia has a significant advantage because of Western rules of engagement. Russia should not be allowed to park its aircraft and other military infrastructure safely over the border. Anything military should be fair game to attack with ANY kind of weapon that Ukraine has and long-range weapons to attack those things should be provided in large quantities.
Agreed. The west's dithering actively enabled the Russians to dig in. Then when arms finally started to arrive, the west puts on a surprised picachu face when Ukraine's progress resumed at a slower speed. To add insult to injury, people start acting like Ukraine had a role in the slowdown whenein reality the west manufactured it singlehandedly. WTAF?!?!
Then we get surprised picachu face again when the west realizes Russia isn't following the west's rules of engagement.
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The only consolation is that Poland & the Baltics aren't deluded and are bending over backwards to keep this war contained. Meanwhile most of NATO seems to think they're over-reacting.
Let's hope Sweden & Finland can hammer some reality into the others in Brussels.
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On an unrelated note, I read somewhere a few months ago that a couple dozen A-10 warthogs are slated for retirement. May I ask why they're not being sent to Ukraine?
@@jerseyshoredroneservices225. Well, sort of, Jersey.
There's an agreement that the war will be fought within Ukraine only.
Not in the EU and not in Russia.
Unless of course Ukraine can get into Russia with troops.
That's fine.
Ukraine's job is to have Russia use as much weaponry and lose as many men as possible before the war comes to an end.
There is no strategy to win.
Zaluzhnyi has no strategy.
The EU and America thought they could destroy Russia using sanctions but that didn't work.
Militarily Ukraine keeps making ridiculous blunders that play to Russia's advantage.
And their political strategy is laughable. Amateur hour.
Which is understandable.
Zelenskyy is an amateur.
Oh well. Peace will eventuate.
Ukraine will be quite small geographically and they'll be in debt to their backers for a few hundred years.
The west will panic fearing Russia will attack us.
Russia will keep forming relationships and working with the rest of the world.
Simply delivering everything on pallets doesn't address training, logistics or support/maintenance issues.
There are lead in times on these systems, plus as these 'feed in' resources need to be diverted.
It's a difficult balancing act. For example during ww2, a British tank regiment had to hand back their Comet tanks just before d-day and land with Sherman's because they hadn't finished their training package.
More consensus and action sooner would have been preferable though.
Well said Justin, I hope our populist politicians are listening! You nailed it!
I watched a western where a small rancher said to a big bully rancher who was trying to take his land, "There is nothing you can do on my land that I cant do on yours and if you force me to fight you wont like the way I do it". Putin will understand this when he attacks Ukrainian power and water this Winter.
Did the large rancher dude sell uranium 237?
No, he got his house burned down, he had a really big fancy house which made a great bonfire. @@Bird_McBride
Glen Ford- The Violent Men check it out could be written as a ukrainian war manual.@@Bird_McBride
@@user-vh1qp1uz2d me? I find people that don't like him and fly big airplanes into his big buildings.
@@user-vh1qp1uz2d Your comment aged like fine wine. For the last 3 months the russian oil and fuel refineries and shipping terminals have been constantly blowing up everywhere within 1,000+ kms range from Ukraine, their Black Sea Flee has fled to another country, and now russian warplanes are dropping from the sky like flies. And I don't think the russians like that way of Ukraine returning the war to the sender. Cheers!
A very sober astute intelligent man
Times Radio always has the best interviews because the interviewers ask the best questions. It's so refreshing. Thank you. Also great guests
Always a great pleasure listening to James interviewing the experts, Congratulations young man from Aotearoa New Zealand 👏
A lot of people need to listen to 22:00 - 25:00 on loop.
Yes, yes yes.
and 26:00 until 29:00 on loop too
The last 8 minutes are extremely important. Thanks for interviewing Prof. Justin Bronk, he is wise and clear sighted.
Justin Bronk is so well informed and clear.
A very sobering warning about the future from Justin Bronk, expressed as clearly and succinctly as I have heard it. Every MP needs to hear this.
Atacms and storm shadow are having limited success because they been delivered in very small numbers. 20 rockets are definitely not going to achieve long term effects. But If they are able to use them in massive amounts and on consistent bases then ruzzians will feel the pain for sure
As well as deep into Russia, to take out production capacity. That is what they are designed for!
For sure, Angel.
Unfortunately that's all we hear. Even from Zaluzhnyi himself.
Zelenskyy too.
Ifs and buts.
Russia has worked around the Atacms and is no in control of the skies. Scott Ritter lays it out well. This is what wind down looks like.
the numbers that would be required simply dont exist and with a unitprice in the millions they will NEVER be produced in the numbers required.
they where always meant as a premium weapon for the rare verry high value target as everything else would be unfinanceable.
the problem is they are used for what was planed to be hit by simple dumb bombs or cheap jdams.
precission long range missiles can never replace a airforce with air supriority.
stop asking for more missiles, they simply dont exist.
@@ciaranryan5265
Russia has NOT found a way to deal with HIMAR and ATACMS. Ukraine just annihilated some helicopters at their base. Subsequently, Russia had to rebase the remaining ones farther from the front.
Love his analysis of the conflict. Can you get him on more often?
Unless we can get a govrrment that actually have a ounce of wisdom, we'll be like every war britain has been in since the first war totally unprepared and totally under airmed .America makes billions on arm trade ,people in britain need work why not open new factorys running 24hrs shifts ,as thats what will be needed if America has to pull out for some reason or another .Airplanes need building there could be a boost to the economy ,especially the way the world is going at present .
And the idea that putin sitting smurking knowing that the west never finishes anything just biding his time makes me actually sick to my stomach
I agree with you. Rushia knows this and actually is counting on it. Democracy only cares about the next election. 🙄
I feel the pain that ukrane is having to ensure because of the fear that the West has. Maybe the West is waiting for a real war that they can participate in themselves.
If the West waits long enough, their wish might come true.
Let's hope the West remains focused and really starts to support ukrane once and for all.
This guy knows much more than anybody else ever.
Many thanks for such interview..
Unfortunately no good news for us...
I think you need to think about the Ukrainian soldier and troop generation and Western dithering. Especially when it comes to keeping higher morale amongs its soldiers. I have a feeling this will become more and more of an issue going forward. Western countries are putting way to much on the shoulders of Ukrainians.
Putin's weak spot. The grey matter between his ears.
And he still manage to beat Ukraine/NATO 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
We need to help them more i don't care about their bs about escalations we beyond that now...🧠
EXCELLENT & IIMPRESSIVELY INFORMATIVE INTERVIEW AS ALWAYS TIMES RADIO
I'm no expert, but it seems to me that the decentralization of the Ukrainian power production by way of emergency generators which were shipped in large quantities last year and continued to be shipped after Ukraine had secured skies for the most part, should also negatively impact Russia's ability to terrorize through removing electricity production
"Negatively impact is a little verbose. Why not say simply say "Ukraine's newly decentralized power production will limit Russia's ability to terrorize Ukraine by freezing Ukrainians in the dark"?
This is sensitive because the grandmother of my Ukrainian-American mechanic friend froze to death last winter in her apartment as the result of ruzzian power terrorism.
I can't express how much I despise ruzzia's use of terror tactics, while solemnly claiming that "Russia doesn't attack civilians." The lying is salt in the wound of the actual, constant, horrendous attacks.
The Ukrainian power utilities are very good at working around the outages. I think they have gotten very good at disguising/moving transformer stations.
Ukraine, also is in full production, of longer range strike drones. So, Western Ruzzia, is going to have some cold nights this winter.
I wonder if the same people care about Gaza electricity etc,. its so gross how hypocritical all of you are.
That, and hardening the power infrastructure. More redundancy in transmission and production as well would be useful.
@@stevenpace892 Problem is the transformers and switch gear is the Achilles heel, and needs moving or Maskirovska, to get the terrorists looking in the wrong location.
Phantastic análisis
Thanks Prof Bronk, great analysis. As usual.
Thanks Prof. Justin Bronk for good analysis. Greetings from Finland. Slava Ukraine!
Welcome in NATO Finnish sisters and brothers. Cheers from Denmark 😊
Great interview as usual. Thank you.
Forcing the Russians to move troops to south western Kherson also puts all those movements much nearer to Ukrainian missile strikes and easier to attrit before they get to the front.
Brilliant Detailed Analysis. Its making me extremely worried for the Ukranians for the winter & beyond.
Pray for substantial replenishment of all requirements.
God Bless & Take Care of Ukraine & its civilians & defence forces. Slava Ukrania
Not only less dug in, but at permanent logistics and air disadvantages and without any fire control over the front.
Great guest
If the now much smaller Dniepro river freezes over in the winter maybe resupply to the bridgehead would be less difficult.
This is an excellent point. 👍 I don't have a good idea how thick ice has to be to support heavy armor, but certainly it seems like you'd be able to get trucks across if it freezes sufficiently.
You cannot negotiate with Putin.
This is depressing to listen to re this guys analysis
THIS was one of the best things I've heard on the war in Ukraine - so important now that the general media has abandoned coverage of Ukraine in favour of Gaza. We had better listen up - wake up and smell the coffee.
Called it.
слава Україні та Ізраїлю!
Excellent questions, Excellent analysis. Spot on my British cousins. Thank you 😊
"Neither side can gain Air Superiority... so a lot of Western concepts don't really work." THANK YOU! Why is it so hard for every other 'expert' to say those words, when they completely invalidate any arguments based on NATO doctrine being applicable?
This summer's big push may certainly be a political and strategic disappointment, but it has kept the Ukrainian Forces in fighting order and given them wins in a brutal tactical environment. Add to that the rapid innovation and effects WAY BEYOND THE FRONT LINE, and they should be proud, if not happy, with the results so far.
Amazing and complete analysis of this war!❤
Every day progress there! 💙💛✌✌✌
Ukraine has a significant arms manufacturing capacity and is developing its own long range weapons which won't be hindered by "allies"caveats on their use.
😂😂 you must be joking, Ukraine couldn't manufacture a bicycle these days. They are financially, and economically ruined, their once formidable military industrial complex has been reduced to rubble.
"Ukraine has a significant arms manufacturing capacity" relative to what?
@@John-hu9qg ⚠Rusbot detected⚠
@@John-hu9qg Go back to Russia troll.
@@lorenzcassidy3960 OK so its not true then...
Failure to give them the right equipment when they needed it, instead feeding it to them piecemeal, after the need arose, is the primary cause of their delay which enabled the Russians (Surovikin) to fortify their defence lines.
interesting, thanks
So true! The whole West should be eager to show Russia that it is in their benefit to stop the war! Ukraine will be able to continue this war until they win and Russia should know and experience they are never able to win this war!!
Russian army couldn't fight it's way out of a wet paper bag😂😂😂
'T was so funny, thank you, I laughed a lot.
@@dpelpalIf true, why has Ukraine not yet routed Russian forces?
@dss2mtm Numbers. The only thing Russia has in abundance.
Nobody expected Ukraine to win .
Ukraine still exists because Ruzzia cant fight its way out of a wet paper bag .
NEXT ?
Great analysis
Love Justin's commentary. He reminds me a little bit of Rimmer from Ref Dwarf.
I say, Wise words, from a Wise Man.
Fascinating analysis, particularly near the end regarding output and opportunity cost of not going all in earlier by the west.
I see all the Russian trolls out early trying to swing the narrative. Cope harder.
Same old Russian bots. Same old Russian cope.
I love when Russhits talk about how US Republicans are decent, as though Republicans somehow hate RuSSia less than Democrats. Like they can't deal with the fact that even though Americans disagree over Ukraine aid, we all pretty much despise that garbage dump of a country.
An intelligent analysis. Let's hope the decision makers listen and act.
Rain in the trenches, frost at night
Water proof boots and clothing, yes, survive
No water proof boots and/or clothing, deadly
Thank you Justin ❤ for explaining to regular people what the facts are. Russia won’t stop ✋
❤Ukrainian ❤
Excellent analysis, thank you.
This Professor Bronk is good.
He says at the 29:27 mark, "people [in Europe] don't realize how vulnerable we [in Europe] would be at that point [ if the Americans had to deal with a War with China AND help Ukraine].
And then there is the Hamas-Israel War, that threatens to expand in the Mideast.
I am not a Military Expert, but The EU's post-Brexit population (450 million) is three times that of Russia's 148 million.
And the EU's post-Brexit GDP of about $16 Trillion is over SEVEN times that of Russia's $2.2 Trillion.
I am not even counting the UK's Population and GDP!
So even with Russia getting weapons from Iran and North Korea, the EU should not --- at least on paper, have a problem competing with Russia in weapons production.
HOWEVER, THERE ____IS___ SUCH A THING AS "NATIONAL WILL".
Resources only take you so far.
You can be Big and Rich and Powerful, but if you lack the WILL to succeed, then you will LOSE.
Spot on Justin…..this fight is the fight of our generation and Putin must be defeated
Great news 🗞
Good analysis but very clickbaity title... There's no real weak point on the Dnipro, just a contested area with potential for both sides.
I wasn't expecting clickbait from TimesRadio, hopefully it won't repeat.
Storm Shadow and ATACMS need to be delivered in larger numbers and in long range versions. It will take a long time for F16 strength to build up, but it needs priority effort. Ukraine needs the tools to prevail.
Glad to see some focus on Ukraine. All the focus has been on Gaza but I’m still concerned about the safety of the Ukrainian people too.
620 days wondering through minefields and no end in sight.
I think stalemate is grossly inaccurate. The Ukrainians have the initiative; and against an objectively large opponent that is incredible. The Ukrainians are sort of choking the Russians out, and the Russians are flailing around trying to survive. Progress is slow, but those that critics should say how they could do better against such numerical superiority.
So called stalemate is a grossly accurate strategic disinformation.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
This is a very helpful and interesting discussion, particularly the last quarter on how to think about deterrence issues. However, you really need to rethink your UA-cam headlines.
I hope the rest of the free world is paying attention to what this gentlemen is saying.
Content starts at 1:00
God bless ukraine 🇺🇦
The Ukraine needs to build a fleet of floating bridges to mass the equipment on the opposite side of the river not a D-Day invasion. Rather, using several small supply chains to access points to reduce staging equipment.
If the west hadn't be so timid with what it supplied to Ukraine...the counteroffensive could have gone a lot better....in war you need to at least use like for like or preferably use better.....Slava Ukraine...
It's not timidity. Europe might as well have nothing to send and the US has three theaters
An excellent analysis that should be on the desk of every member of this useless government, but also made into a TV documentary.
They can put inflatable vehicles on the east side of the river to make it look like they have a huge landing for PR.
Son, I am much more forgetful than you ever knew
I'm glad we don't have to fight this war. Just imagine not receiving the proper supply from our allies and still expecting to win.
Not just eroding the capacity to fight but more importantly eroding the morale of the Russian Orcs
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Vunderbar.
We have learned that drones are supreme in destroying scores of enemy tanks and artillery but this comes with the problem that your own tanks are equally vulnerable. This leaves the only option - the use of ' thinned out' infantry feeding their way along windbreak tree lines. But present battery technology limits the reach o f the drones into occupied territories. Drones with heavier lifting capabilities should be given the task of delivering supplies of ammunition, food, medical equipment to the advancing infantry and even extracting injured soldiers in a less detectable way.
I like the concept, but the lift capacities you're talking about would require a very large gas-powered airframe, making it much easier to spot and shoot down, as well as being much more expensive. Even the biggest commercially available heavy-lift gas powered drones have carry capacities that max out around 15 lbs.
There was a Kickstarter project back in 2014-2016 time frame, the Incredible HLQ (Heavy Lift Quadcopter), a mechanical engineering senior design project by students in San Jose. It was a beast of a thing, dual 12-1/2 HP gas engines - even that had a carry capacity of only 60 lbs, and in the UA-cam videos they shared, it was very loud - like a pair of lawnmowers. You'd hear it coming a mile away and see it easily.
A bit like the arrival of the doodlebugs then.
@@RandallHeath1121 No, I mean keep them electric powered but just slightly larger.
@@Kath-nd6pj I would say more like the
Vietnam Hueys but much smaller.
@@planmet you are probably right. I do not know how to access the weaponary capabilities.
Reading that reminded me of my mother‘s recollections of the sound of doodlebugs approaching, then cutting out - silence - while the mind races anticipating where the explosion will finally crash. The hospital behind where she lived got a direct hit. Even though I was not there, that vivid description is etched in my brain.
People ask why we feel so strongly about Russian aggression in Ukraine. There is hardly anyone in the U.K. that was not touched by WW2. Remembrance /Poppy Day is approaching. NEVER AGAIN! This is important to all of us this side of pond.
No ceasefire, Slava Ukraini!
Weapons weapons
Love seeing Justin on something other Ward Carol channel 😂
The need for Air support was recognised before, during and now, after the Ukrainian counter offensive momentum is locked in attrition again.
28:45 is the big point now. US and NATO are committed to this war. For a change in politics in America or England or Germany would spell future credibility loss in such a big way. Many current NATO member as well as future aspirants to NATO like of course Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia (as well as EU membership) would question the viability of membership or the protections that membership should bring.
Slava Ukraine!!!!!
NATO needs to learn for this war that they have to have a plan if they loose air superiority. Any war that goes on long enough will likely end up with severely depleted air forces and there is no chance to replace modern aircraft etc. as quickly as happened in WW2, never mind actually develop new aircraft,
We haven't lost a single F 16 coz we haven't sent any. And don't plan on sending many.
Putins weak spot is between his ears. 😂😂😂
James Hanson is doing a great job, but we need Kate Chabot back doing the interviews from her closet.
👏👏👏
Without solid air support counteroffensive is almost impossible and you know it.
Lets see what F16 could do
F16 wunderwaffen!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yeah right, stalemate ?
While holding three or more fully equipped brigades in reserve
Yeah right
Yeah. A brigade isn't much
Good segment. Very intelligent and understanding gentleman. Deterrence would have been more likely in a time when US politicians exuded resiliency. Today, the trumps are weak, the moderates are weak, and the extreme liberals are normal, weakest of them all. US Congress needs a “House” cleaning badly. They are making average Americans look like cowards. And we’re not living most our lives in complete hiding like the Russian president.
UK government attention and planning, oh, now I see the problem.
This guy just speaks so much common sense, however politics unfortunately is not about common sense ☹
The black fleet has been completely destroyed and driven from the black sea. I learned that watching western news.
Does one need to be a seasoned defense analyst oneself in order to assert that few (if any) 50- and 60-year-old defense analysts commenting publicly on the war have got as far as Prof. Bronk in his much shorter time at the game? If the answer is that no, one needn't, then that's what I say.
Dneepro, not Dnaipro
Brilliant
Make believe, Russian Orcs completely fooled
Not looking at the West bank of the Dnipro
Brilliant
He has a point there - deterrence is cheaper than war. If Russia would see a fully armed and equiped Ukrainian army, negotiatons could take place. But they will not as long as they have the feeling they have chances to win. Especially with elections to come..
When Justin Bronk speaks, i shut up and listen.
Do you get that feeling, you're all alone?😂
I’ve become to love this channel .. it never fails to surprise me.
Putins weak spot… he actually believes he will resume diplomatic relations with Ukraine.
By the way it’s only a stalemate as Russia ids deliberately holding firm.. they don’t want kiev.. eventually peace will break out and Russia will have the Donbas ..
Regards casualties I believe Russia is not the only combatant force suffering casualties. This report has aged a lot in a month.
Even if Ukraine could breaththrough, it would deplete & over-extend their military too much, making themselves more vulnerable to a Russian offensive.