Bridgewater Co-CIO Prince on Global Markets Outlook
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- Опубліковано 23 чер 2020
- Jun.24 -- Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer for Bridgewater Associates, speaks with Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro at the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual summit on the outlook for global markets and shares his thoughts on what a recovery might look like.
Thanks for not interrupting!
Interviewer has asked really good questions and has not interrupted while Bob responded. Two thumbs up!!
Everyone needs to watch this video. Bob Prince is a wizard. Thank you for posting this!
For those who have red history , the economic evolution of the human societies lead deterministically to a state intervention economic system .
A big thank to Mr. Prince . He explained in a very clear way how things are standing today in global economy. He could be an excellent teacher. Congratulations.
Incredible insights into the market overall. I'm listening, pausing, taking notes and when I look up, lol, it's only been 3 minutes. Much appreciated for this!
Great stuff, manage the risk, take a defensive stance...follow the money... always did and always will work. Great interview.
This was enlightening. I'm going to listen to this at least a couple of times. Thanks for this
I watched some of this on Bloomberg. All I could think was Bob Prince is smart ... ... very smart. Glad this full interview popped up.
This guy's extensive understanding of the complexity of the financial game is impressive. It also reveals why the system is flawed. It shouldn't be that complicated. People should be able to work, save money....that money shouldn't be "trash". Our system is overly financial in nature, and the barrier to entry is just ridiculous. The current game should be shamed.
Jesse Jones the more you listen the more you will understand it
@@TheOpinionSports I understand it. It's just too complicated for the average person, and so they are left out of this game. Money should hold it's value.
@@jessejones5191 Money holding its value is generally what monetary and fiscal policy is trying to achieve. Overall, it works ok.
If you're talking about inflation, then assets like Gold, stock, real estate, bonds hold value better than cash, when there is money printing in excess of actual growth. All of those assets are easily available to retail investors.
@@TheOpinionSports It only makes sense with a little bit of background knowledge of the underlying theories. Financial and economic education is something we as a culture could do better at. That said, anyone here can educate themselves by reading about it, including free web sites like Investopedia, etc. Study and learn. :)
Reflation, storehold of weath and differentiation of outcomes are themes that determine how to structure a portfolio.
"Big Forces at Play that affect everyone:
1) Reflation
2) Storehold of Wealth
3) Differentiation"
Everyone...but them.
So is there an alternative to stocks next 10y?
Bob Prince, thank you for the education. You just showed me how to see even 'further out' of what can happened to our economic engine as the current health/financial crisis effect ripple through out the system.
Thank you for this insight and information 🙏🏼 Much of it is above my understanding but I am wondering if there is a strategy out there that can take us away from this system, break us free of history repeating itself to continually get us into these types of situations (which seem to worsen each time), and to shift the control of our economies and markets away from the corrupt powers that be, so we can find more balance in our financial futures without the constant threat of corruption or repeated devastation? Individually we are not overly powerful as investors but what about a collective effort on a global scale to somehow bypass the “old” systems while we create a more solid financial structure we can further develop over time as a win/win system instead of always to have BIG winners vs BIG losers (us little guys)? Like I said, I don’t know much but is there such an opportunity for the other 98% to work together right now and shift the control moving forward from here? I’m a single mom, who has worked hard for what little I have been able to invest, I’m afraid to lose what I have, it took my whole life to get here....I’m thinking it would be nice if my children could look forward to a fair chance at building an honest portfolio one day with some certainty in keeping it (or at least controlling their own financial choices) for when they are older and need it.
SIMPLE: VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS. Drumph and republicans love to juice the economy and give money to the 1% and destroy the middle and working class. All fake capitalism. Dems will tax the rich and de-rig the system and give you a chance at a home and income and stock returns based on how hard you work, not on how much wealth you already have.
It seems like the corona outbreak is going to cause a major crisis from the bottom up-starting with consumers and small businesses struggling to make ends meet and then this will eventually get reflected into the market. I think 08 was the opposite of this because the crisis was mainly attributed to the meltdown and over-leveraged positions held by these huge financial corporations. It started from the top and then eventually affected the consumers and small businesses. The Fed is providing liquidity to the capital markets, but I think the underlying problem is not getting adequately addressed.
Great interview!
Very insightful and enlightening information, thanks.
I love how he said the word state capitalism! Coming from China, this is exactly how I feel about the current capitalism being practiced in the US.
Excellent interview! You are the BEST interviewer out there by a long shot! Thank you!
Great interview...
Yes, but nothing anyone with a third grade education could not have told you. No wonder the world is a mess.
Just an awesome interview...so informative
Excellent! Please do a follow up interview soon....
High quality conversation.
Great interviewing skills!
You know he's rich because he has a better camera than Bloomberg (a media company) does
Lol you have the true insight
12:53 : He is saying: GOLD, GOLD and GOLD (well maybe a bit of silver or palladium in there as well :))
That's an unusual leopard skin chair for an office.
lol you got an eye for details. i definitely think it used to be his wifes
LOL
You losing focus
he is a hunter. whats wrong with that?
It was his wife's worn fur coat.
The 4 most dangerous words "This time is different"
Stocks Only Go Up
@@DrTune Well it's possible. Hyper inflation can happen, there can be many ways the system can blow up other than stocks plummeting
Thank you for the intelligent discourse
Towards the end of the interview he basically says that the known American capitalism is over and that the US is entering state capitalism. Of what I understand kind of the sort Japan or China has had. The government decides on which sectors, companies, projects to channel the money to and develop.
Government picking winners and losers is never good.
@@Bassoarno Technically it's nearer to socialism. In communism the government owns the companies.
But actually free markets work much better than a "managed" (socialist) economy since no bureaucrat can ever discover prices as efficiently or accurately as market forces.
Yes. That's basically what he's saying. That the U.S. will be more like China, where companies are backed by the state. So yeah, capitalism is ending. He's using all sorts of other words to avoid saying socialism, but that's basically what he's describing.
Ordoliberalism
Very smart man.. very good interview
Brilliant! Hats off gentlemen for a revealing look behind the scenes. Any fixed system or structure eventually gets "gamed" to the advantage of a few. You now have financial engineering that squeezes the economy dry to the disadvantage of most people. Getting that risk/reward optimized for the reasonable benefit of all is the tricky bit...Thanks again for posting!
First was value investing, then came interest rate investing, now is survival investing
You have a Treasury Head Mnuchin who came in from Wall St. He will do whatever it takes to keep Wall St happy.
This is going to end bad for everyone except these guys and our "wonderful" bought and paid for politicians who are supposed to be serving us, the public.
Upon what criteria is the Fed basing its “choices”? Interviewee seems to make some presumptions, here, founded in his assumption of the Fed’s altruism. Is the Fed altruistic? How would you know?
Wow great video
You can see he’s trying real hard not to be too specific, so that he and all of his clients can position themselves in those assets before everyone else pushes the price up.
This guy telling us to buy WMT? Like why the shift from tech to these storeholders of wealth?
Brilliant!
Good discussion
Bob is the man. Period.
Beautiful chair!
Paul Tudor Jones was talking about the virus in Davos
you can tell he's a bear from 17:00 haha
12:35 GOLD
like Japan probably the Government needs to do a whole lot more to sustain the economy for the future
Let's print another 10 trillion, and make the world even better!
Since even massive hyperinflation caused by money printing was not enough to wake people up , these games will continue. The public will be robbed over and over again, because they choose not to think just emotionally react
very useful
Excellent
So is BA is investing conservatively ? I understand the storehold of wealth concept but I don’t think Bridgewater gets its returns from buying inflation protected securities, sandwich...food and water stocks
"Do we transition to debt restructurings and currency devaluations? And from there what is the status of the dollar as a reserve currency and from there what is the store hold of wealth?" These words make me think of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is decentralized. No one govervnment can control it.
After working with closely with someone for so long, you start to look and sound like the other half. Awesome philosophy.
wasnt this the guy that said boom bust cycle is over when the markets was 1 month out from the top?
he's saying that debt-fueled currency will be over and most governments will shift to something else.
He doesn't define the boom bust cycle as what the stock price will be though, but as whether the next recession will be caused by government tightening on monetary policy. Technically, we'll never know if he was right since we ended up having the recession forcefully induced by the virus.
Our financial system is out of control. Our government and central banks have become too interventionist over past decades and really since the 1920s and have gradually moved away from facilitating a productive economy and toward managing a fragile, complex, financialized economy for the benefits of those that have the most influence and own the most assets.
spot on
In a nutshell -- store hold of wealth: gold, health care, consumer staples, inflation adjusted bonds...
@@AndyYouCanFinance I would tend to think so. Problem is many people are moving out of big cities....I know that is happening in New York City.
@@AndyYouCanFinance if you look at Ray Dalio's genius "How the economic machine works", real estate will collabse. ua-cam.com/video/PHe0bXAIuk0/v-deo.html - apporx. min 17:30.
@@bicycleetc9436 Real estate values in big cities generally appreciate the best, but that sort of got turned on its head due to the virus. However with people leaving big cities for the suburbs or even rural areas, real estate in those other areas has gone up in value. Supply and demand.
@@AndyYouCanFinance real estate will always have value because all production arises from land. As long as your property isn't situated in an area that will be underwater in the future, your property will always have value. It may not appreciate short term, but long term, all real estate properties appreciate. You can't have production without land, so land will always be in demand.
Don't forget the part about certain technology companies
No we have a collapsing economies fro bad investments due to Central banks and Corporation malinvestmens due to Central banks , this man blaming Covid19 is wrong.The system was crashing last september (banks failing and overnight repos.
I think you missed the point. Covid creating an income problem which means therefore consumption falls and therefore gdp. Yes I agree a crash was being signalled by the inversion of the yield curve however the covid situation has been exacerbated by lack of short term assets (cash due to stock buybacks). Factoring in the hit to personal spending due to the income dilemma and you can see why cash flow becomes problematic for businesses especially if majority of their cash has been used in buybacks
과대평가에 대해서는 이해할 수 없는 곳이 있는데 누가 안내해 주시겠습니까?
Canada is a capitalist society with a dose of socialism. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. A combo of both is more ethical than throwing the people that are being treated unjustly under the bus. I don’t know how Americans sleep at night with the kind of unfair social policies that create and target the poor. Canada too could do much better in addressing social ills as well. We need to look to places like Sweden to develop a good education system and a happy population. Just my heartfelt opinion.
All the numbers all the charts you look at in America American charts all the data from the matriarchal shift that took place in the mid-60s all the data from then to now shows a horrific downturn for the poor a touch of capitalism in a touch of socialism is Marxism when studying all the data and looking at the destruction of the middle class the massive increase of poverty and the greatest wealth transfer in human history the bailout of 08 and this plan gimmick were in right now one can only think to stop this matriarchal hellhole is to give a child a silver coin pay your bills and gold and silver
Guy who said in Jan that stocks had reached a permanently high plateau now tells you what will happen next
Very funny this guy, are one of the biggest short seller, and will explain us something of economics 😂👍🍻🍼🍼🍼🍼
are you implying that shortsellers dont have economical insight? Lehman also really hated the shortsellers
Storehold of wealth to me is collectables, so long as what you're collecting isnt something that isnt very popular as a collectable or is just a fad like beanie babies. Think of antique cars etc
You completely misunderstood him then. No one HAS to buy an antique car from you, just like no one HAS to go to a movie theater. A storehold of wealth is something that will always have a market because it's necessary for life. He specifically mentioned water, food, aspirin, etc. When things start to go south, your classic cars are only of value if you know how to turn them into mad max-style dune buggies to help you rove the desolate burning hellscape for water and escape the warlords trying to capture you and make you fight for your life in the thunderdome.
This man has a chilling cavalierness when explaining the ways he intends to profit off of what he is essentially describing as the destruction of his country.
E W I don’t begrudge him taking advantage of it. That’s his job. But one can do that while showing concern. His more famous partner does.
Yes, and I find his nature chillingly cavalier. 😉
You got that right: he OWNS his country. You're just allowed to breath and eat...for now.
Bob u didnt mentioned austerity, which will be required for many many years
You can't have it if your thesis is no boom or bust.
Great interview. I got lost though in the jump from “monetary stimulus overshoot” and “fiscal stimulus that is not being spent” to “reflation”. It’s clear these two cause asset price inflation.... I got lost as to how these two translate to real economy “reflation”? I think we can all agree that asset price inflation is not the same as inflation in the real economy nor is it reflation in the real economy. So what is the rationale for concluding that extra liquidity and extra fiscal stimulus that is not directed by consumers to spending... how that becomes inflationary or reflationary in the real economy? You had stated that this extra stimulus is not being spent, and spending is what is required to cause reflation in the real economy. So what was the rationale for real economy reflation given these conditions you described? In order for real economy inflation to occur, you need a stable or increasing velocity of money combined with an increase in the monetary base. We see that the velocity of money is and has been in a steady multi decade decline. And you just stated that people are not spending al that stimulus either into the real economy, which means you are expecting the velocity of money to remain low or continue its slide lower. If your assumption about “reflation” in the real economy is that the expansion of the monetary base will be so severe that it outweighs the multi decade velocity of money decline pattern, then at best the impact will be some marginal reflation, not any this severe enough to make investors worried about real inflation or hyperinflation.
Go back and listen to it again. Your assumptions are 100% wrong.
The Real Rosie Ruiz my comment was a set of questions, not assumptions. If you are able to answer them I would be very appreciative.
Listening to him feels like listening to economics professor. He’s a genius.
no markets anymore...it is a casino BUT...not one in which the rules of the game are ruled by mathematics and probability...it s one ruled by the wishes of the owner...
Question: Why would the Fed, which is now a political tool, ever be "unwilling or unable" to print more fiat currency BEFORE consumer prices reach chaotic hyperinflation? ... the threat of China cutting off its supply chain (or war) as a reprisal for the destruction in value of their US treasuries holdings? Perhaps. But the breakdown of economic transactions due to hyperinflation may be the only reason for the Fed to stop kicking the can down the road.
Hes def talking about Bitcoin.
😂😂😂😂😂
Wow I thought Ray Dalio was a bullshit spreader, but this guy takes it to a whole new level
I learned actually nothing from watching this...
well at least they are admiting they want to move away from capitalism into state capitalism (socialism) with politics allowing resources instead of the market......and that maybe we should expect the dollar to stop being a reserve of value...
you're a very intelligent man
@@sibeesanchay6980 maybe he didn't learn anything b/c he couldnt follow
At the end the poor guy had to defend "state capitalism" ....sadely he needs to do this because he is a big and easy target for those central planners....no need to paint a large target on your own back. On the flip side of that, big players also have a better chance of having 'insider information" because they know and at times control those on the inside.....so while the rest of us hate "too big to fail"...those deemed to need "saving" are of coarse quite happy. (and you will note there is no saying "too small to fail")
Bob, fire the decorator
Lol boom bust cycle over? If that was the case it would of happened already
"State Capitalism" is the new system that is needed in America now. It is about 70% of the old Capitalism, mixed with 30% of Communism.
Don't be too surprised. The main principle is not to keep Capitalism at any cost. The Principle is to have the most appropriate system for each time period, for the well-being of the People.
The old Capitalism was good for several generations. But it's pass its used-by date. Continuing would lead to economic collapse.
State Capitalism isn't as stable a system. But it is better than other alternatives. But unless US politicians from all sides work together to implement a strategic plan, this current system can't last too long. I.e., prospects are grim.
Did he shoot that leopard himself to cover his chair?
It's game over for most people, unless you pick the right thing to put your fiat currency in to. I choose Blockchain, land, real estate and metals. Anything and everything else is fairy dust. p.s. they so badly want to talk about Bitcoin, you know it, I know it, we all KNOW it
I think that being financially wealthy or poor is often the result of personal priorities, perspective & related choices over years .
Lol yeah he knows it all because 5 months ago he said there would be no more boom and bust cycles. Also, feed the man a hamburger.
Dalio lost so much money during this pandemic. Old school mind.
But less than the other funds % wise.. these guys are brilliant and are making socially productive suggestions... simply good people.
Have you checked ARK Invest lately?
Lol ark invest
years ago only wealthy people in a few countries bought stocks. now people from all over the world have money to invest. add all the pension plans and sovereign wealth funds and it would appear stocks will only rise over the long term. money can`t stay under the mattress and equities are the logical place to invest.
Just buy Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Adobe, Alteryx, Wells Fargo, Twitter.
I like how this guy looks like a slightly younger Dalio.
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State Capitalism? Now Communism gets a new name.
Do some reading on theory surrounding "varieties of capitalism". State capitalism has existed in Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, etc for decades.
@@davidcarragher5151 You don't have to study any theory. Just listen to how he describes it. His definition is essentially a form of controlling the means of production via liquidity access.
It's socialism first before communism. But yeah.
Boom and bust cycle is over in Jan.
State capitalism is socialism
He said the US economy based on State Capitalism! LOLOL. He can't say communism or socialism. Too political.
What virus?? What is he talking about?
Pr
Def hinting to a digital dollar as well.
Lol. This guy is a liar. Capitalism hasn't happened in America for decades. Socializing business loses caused this mess. State run capitalism? You mean socialism or communism.
Absolutely true...Crony ststrm..with Zero price discovery in every asset class...all of them have been mispriced for years...zombies have to fail...Too big to Fail is the BS and buggest mistake ever.
Dont forget that the politicians now work directly for the business oligarchs. Not the people.
I think you mean that inflation figures are not capturing true ratio of currency / asset value? Market pricing will come back and people will soon realise how little value their dollars and yuan really have. They they try to spend them asap, velocity explodes and hyperinflation ensues. Makes the most sense to me. So pick your inflation hedges now, stocks, gold, real estate, bitcoin, but as Ray dalio daid, cash is trash.
@@TheJeffatan The government is basically forced to socialize business losses and give lifelines to zombies because the populace will riot in a prolonged depression. I mean, the sensible decision is to cut your losses and allow the zombies to fail so that the market could correct and reflect real prices, but what will that do? It will put a lot of people out of work and put the economy in a depression which can last years. No government will survive that without a revolution happening. So they choose the less painful decision.
State capitalism is the new norm.
this "state capitalism" feels like an interim military governement for a state.
Tightening Monetary policy - credit falling - spending falling - income falling.
Here since people are not leaving home to work, income is falling first. Driving force is the virus
Mpolicy 3 fiscal + monetary - fiscal stimulus important, support with printing money to buy bonds to prevent increase in interest rates.
Low income levels are here to stay, collapse in incomes, cash flows...... Is liquidity by central bank enough to cover this? Duration mismatch - Virus here to stay.
Wow this guy said "it is different this time" before the crisis hit................ A crisis will always comes eventually......I think he was blinded by his win streak. Happens to all of us at all account sizes and intelligence levels. I'm shocked that this guy works for Dalio. He is smart but anyone who says it is different this time needs to think again.
Sellisa its always different in some ways at many times
trading stocks has become a prospective part of my financial breakthrough ever since i came across jack jones
yea! trading to me now seems easy, his techniques are actually yielding positivity in my finances too
wow, he has proven to be a top class trader, his teachings on stock trading is very insightful
i feel so excited seeing this here, Jack is actually a force to reckon with when it comes to trading, he's given me some of the best signals I've ever traded
i was met with him in L.A and he was quite educative, even tipped me on how to go about the market especially during had times
that is lovely to hear, i would love to meet with him too, i guess he could tip me on how to go about the market
Is that a cheetah fur chair 🪑???
Great interview but man do I find that host’s facial expression annoying. Try to be more neutral less blue steel?
LOLOL Yeah, in spades when that Britboy accent is added to the mix.
Wrong. I saw him doing Ferrari and Le Tigra a lot but never Blue Steel.
Ouch. The optics exude “colonial” 🧐
By optics do you mean the room, or his demeanour? I like the room, looks comfortable.
told ya, u cant change china, china changes u
Goddamn invest in a mic please