Moltke Tactical Problem 20

This series presents in shortened video form the tactical problems Field Marshal Moltke presented at the Prussian Army Staff College. Moltke coined the phrase that "No plan survives first contact with the enemy." He believed fighting effectively was exploring a series of options and these options were explored in his Tactical Problems.
In these videos we look at these problems, and their solutions, with the lens of playing wargames well.
This video is about the question, and solution for Problem 20

[@FlameQwert]

this is an interesting problem! the premise is quite different to most of the other ones (guessing the enemy VS making your own moves), very cool

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

@@FlameQwert glad you liked it!

[@georgedeppner418]

I like all these videos

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

Glad to hear it!

[@zachariah1688]

Logically it is option 2. As stated in other problems, our Army wants to fight the enemy at Pettstadt, but for the enemy army that would be foolish. They are most likely to defend along a marshy river with elevated terrain also along its banks. As a division commander, I would take my main body to reunite with the battalion at Uichterlitz and engage that force into withdrawal, then take what "fresh units" I had with that new main body and reunite with the force pushed out of Markwerberg to retake it as the enemy there is isolated. Doing this resecures our side of the river on the army's left, but would also allow for harrassing the enemy while they attempt to fortify any positions they have there until the army decides what to do next.

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

OK, thanks for the detail! I really enjoy your comments for their thoughtfulness.

[@Nitroaereus]

I'm guessing (2) since enemy forces pulled back to Goseck a while a major attack (1) would probably see them maintaining their forward posture and a defensive line across the river (3) would have probably seen the forces at Markwerber withdrawn. Their disposition pretty closely matches the defensive line on our side of the river (2).

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

The problem states that they stay in Markwerber. The spirit of their disposition is to screen the river defense. Withdrawal likely if pressed.

[@bramstedt8997]

I’m guessing 1. This scenario is different than the others I’ve seen so far in that the problem asks you to guess the enemy’s movements rather than ask what move you should make
After finishing:
Ok 2 makes sense but depending on what moves follow, the attack (1) could follow. I suspect the best move for blue would be to deny them a river crossing or attack them immediately after a river crossing to pin them to the banks, unless the main blue forces occupy a more defendable position already

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

It is different. These problems trained General Staff to advise their commanders and make movements. Discerning enemy intentions were part of that job.

[@bramstedt8997]

@@UmpireLaFondiose it’s no wonder that the Prussians and their German Imperial successors had the most effective and efficient military in Europe

[@johannesboo6152]

So the enemy have held the river crossings for most of a day and we've only seen about a division of their army. Sounds like a screening force for a defensive deployment. If they were attacking they should have had more forces across by now

[@The1JHorton]

I'm guessing 1

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

Oho, check what Moltke has to say about that!

[@ghert3850]

Risky move crossing the wet gap to screen the other side without intending for the main body to cross. The behavior of the smaller engagements seems right as indicators of a screen but taken as a whole I’m not so sure.
#1.
Update: dang it!!!! Wrong again!

[@UmpireLaFondiose]

They key is you are thinking through it - that is the actual purpose. Even Moltke allowed there were multiple ways to solve the problem.