The Hidden Factors Influencing The Election - Nate Silver

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  • Опубліковано 10 січ 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 938

  • @ChrisWillx
    @ChrisWillx  3 місяці тому +21

    Hello you savages. Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/ Here's the timestamps:
    00:00 How Nate Mastered Sports Betting
    04:01 Models Used to Predict Elections
    08:03 The Way People Vote Today
    11:02 Why Kamala Harris Isn’t Appearing on Podcasts
    14:54 Do Debates Change People’s Minds?
    17:22 The Impact of Running Mates
    23:53 Have the Assassination Attempts Impacted the Election?
    30:16 The States That Decide the Election
    32:50 Likelihood of a Third-Party Candidate Being Elected
    37:39 The Power of ‘the Village & the River’
    44:48 Nate’s Experiences With Sam Bankman-Fried
    49:24 Why Crypto Investors Are More Likely to Be Scammed
    56:29 Psychology of High Risk-Takers
    1:01:54 The Price You Pay to Be Nate Silver
    1:04:30 Nate’s Core Values
    1:10:13 Where to Find Nate

    • @JimHendrick-p8f
      @JimHendrick-p8f 3 місяці тому

      How is Mate Silver a polling expert when he has never conducted polls? He’s a leftist advocate that gaslights the public into believing the left is doing better than they are. He overestimated the Left’s performance on THE LAST TWO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ON ALL 50 states. That’s statistically impossible.

    • @HybridGlobalCitizen
      @HybridGlobalCitizen 3 місяці тому

      Tulsi please

  • @PLdemorygray
    @PLdemorygray 3 місяці тому +465

    Interesting that Silver thinks Vance isn't qualified to be selected as a vice presidential candidate because he only has 2 years of experience in the Senate, but Harris as a "capable politician" gained sufficient experience to be president after serving a whopping 4 years in the same institution, followed by another four years of "rubber chicken" dinners in political Siberia. The idea that Harris spent her vice-presidency flying around the world performing official duties is an incredible rewriting of history. The 50/50 split in the Senate forced her to stay in Washington as a potential tie breaker. When defending her lack of visits to the US border with Mexico, she responded to the question by saying she hadn't even been to Europe!

    • @jarettmeyer4929
      @jarettmeyer4929 3 місяці тому

      A lot of what this guy is saying makes no sense. The TV media doesn’t have a left tilt overall? And he is pro vaccine? At least qualify that with not sure about the Covid vaccine.

    • @BeepTalford-nu8mm
      @BeepTalford-nu8mm 3 місяці тому +36

      This must have been recorded before Vance went HAM on Walz in the VP debate.

    • @DaVizzle_Bro
      @DaVizzle_Bro 3 місяці тому +16

      ☝️
      This podcast must have been filmed before the latest vice presidential debate is correct. As soon as it got to around 23 minutes and when he started talking about Vance not being a good pic I'm just like dude, watch the freaking debate and then come and tell me that

    • @wouterroos2359
      @wouterroos2359 3 місяці тому

      You are absolutely right. Let's not forget that she is more radical than Bernie Sanders and didn't get a single vote. She is running as an illegitimate candidate.

    • @marewmpinge419
      @marewmpinge419 3 місяці тому +22

      No dude. Its because she is a prosecuter campigned for obama etc. shes been in politics for like 30 years. the fact that you got this many likes on this comment is insane

  • @FPSJonny
    @FPSJonny 3 місяці тому +716

    When you say media isn’t biased against republicans im out

    • @DetectiveStablerSVU
      @DetectiveStablerSVU 3 місяці тому +83

      ​@@sthubbins4038 wow 1 outlet

    • @YTU37
      @YTU37 3 місяці тому

      Left needs more then 1 outlet for effective propaganda

    • @Joaopereira-dh3dw
      @Joaopereira-dh3dw 3 місяці тому +23

      Tables turned you got Elon musk the confirmation bias expert

    • @tstartrekdude
      @tstartrekdude 3 місяці тому

      He literally said the MSM is center left, meaning biased against republicans.

    • @caminodecostaricanetworks75
      @caminodecostaricanetworks75 3 місяці тому +9

      ​@DetectiveStablerSVU the largest and most viewed 😂

  • @carlotruppi3314
    @carlotruppi3314 3 місяці тому +343

    As an immigrant and a GOP I’m tired of the narrative that we’re “anti immigration”. We’re anti “mass illegal immigration and not knowing anything about millions of people who are here”.

    • @OhWellWhatTheHell1
      @OhWellWhatTheHell1 3 місяці тому +8

      Alright. So if I said, “okay, so let’s beef up border security but lower the barrier of entry on the legal channels to immigration so that everyone who wants to come can come”, you’d agree with me. Right?

    • @Csonka_Would_Run
      @Csonka_Would_Run 3 місяці тому +14

      @@OhWellWhatTheHell1I would not

    • @OhWellWhatTheHell1
      @OhWellWhatTheHell1 3 місяці тому +6

      @@Csonka_Would_Run yeah that’s what I thought. So miss me when you say you’re against “illegal immigration”, you wouldn’t care one way or the other whether it’s legal or not, whether you knew about them or not, you’re just anti immigration.

    • @whiteymcwhiterson3974
      @whiteymcwhiterson3974 3 місяці тому +33

      ​@@OhWellWhatTheHell1what would "lowering the barriers" entail? Thats an insanely disingenuous question to ask with no further details provided, and you know it

    • @whiteymcwhiterson3974
      @whiteymcwhiterson3974 3 місяці тому +16

      ​@@OhWellWhatTheHell1so if we "lowered the barriers" to include not looking at any past criminal history, i assume you would be okay with it right? See how disingenuous questions work now?

  • @ericoelchicorico2929
    @ericoelchicorico2929 3 місяці тому +399

    This is a great example of how one can be highly intelligent and know all sorts of things about betting and statistical analysis but still hold personal biases that distorts the entire process.

    • @larryboy6577
      @larryboy6577 3 місяці тому +9

      Perfect comment. 👍🫡

    • @imtryinghere1
      @imtryinghere1 3 місяці тому +13

      Makes zero sense. You clearly know nothing about statistics and modeling

    • @carlospadilla7247
      @carlospadilla7247 3 місяці тому +11

      ​@imtryinghere1 oh and you do? Why weren't you invited for an interview?

    • @ArthurAugustyn
      @ArthurAugustyn 3 місяці тому +14

      Nate has an open offer for anyone who wants to bet against his models. No one has taken him up on it and you won't either.

    • @marg0049
      @marg0049 3 місяці тому +13

      Can you give any specifics on what's wrong with his model, or are you just going on vibes?

  • @charlesratcliffe6839
    @charlesratcliffe6839 3 місяці тому +186

    Nate Silver has consistently reported incorrect polling until right before elections happen. You should have Richard Baris on. He has been the most accurate pollster for the last three cycles.

    • @stephencronin1080
      @stephencronin1080 3 місяці тому +14

      Baris would be an amazing guest

    • @mpeters99
      @mpeters99 3 місяці тому +8

      Nate Silver is not a pollster

    • @charlesratcliffe6839
      @charlesratcliffe6839 3 місяці тому +5

      @@mpeters99His website’s description: 538, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis…. What exactly do you call that?

    • @Joaopereira-dh3dw
      @Joaopereira-dh3dw 3 місяці тому +4

      Nate rival is Allan lichtman that only got 2000 wrong

    • @tstartrekdude
      @tstartrekdude 3 місяці тому +5

      @@charlesratcliffe6839 pollsters are people that conduct polls, not aggregate them. Also he doesn't work at 538 anymore.

  • @mikelitten7489
    @mikelitten7489 3 місяці тому +271

    The fact that this race is even close shows just how fucked we truly are

    • @Joaopereira-dh3dw
      @Joaopereira-dh3dw 3 місяці тому +61

      Especially after one said the constitution should be terminated

    • @USABeauboy
      @USABeauboy 3 місяці тому +13

      Or Trump supporters are not "polling" but instead actually VOTING for Trump!

    • @MichaelSmith-lr8cp
      @MichaelSmith-lr8cp 3 місяці тому +17

      I find it intriguing that I have no idea what you're implying. I have seen folks on both team Red and team Blue make statements like this! What's meant by it is a reflection of your worldview.

    • @mikelitten7489
      @mikelitten7489 3 місяці тому +7

      @@MichaelSmith-lr8cp That’s a fair statement, but I wonder, do you think both sides are logical?
      What I mean is, a serial killer might think he’s doing the right thing, but all normal people would disagree.
      To me, one side is obviously wrong in every way, only the people in their cult would disagree.
      If you had to guess, which team do you think I’m on?

    • @FAK_CHEKR
      @FAK_CHEKR 3 місяці тому +3

      @@mikelitten7489 I asked my daughter’s boyfriend if he’s voting. He said yeah there’s clearly only one choice. I think I know who he meant but I’m not positive. And that is fine with me.

  • @svanhoosen
    @svanhoosen 3 місяці тому +63

    Vance changing his mind about Trump in an 8 year period is not flip-flopping. Vance's position on Trump in 2024 is clearly understood. Flip-flopping is when a politician changes their stated views on an issue depending on their audience, and remains as vague as possible, as Harris is a model for.

    • @mikelitten7489
      @mikelitten7489 3 місяці тому

      But for someone that operates with a hive mind, any deviation is a flip flop. The right understand but disagrees with the left. The left doesn’t understand the right and refuses to learn.

    • @carsandsports123
      @carsandsports123 3 місяці тому

      They think Vance is bad when Kamala in the same year called Joe a racist sexist and then said just JK just a view months after when selected as VP

    • @jaimekuyper6347
      @jaimekuyper6347 3 місяці тому +4

      I mean, they act like their argument makes sense but they know it doesn’t. Someone changing my opinion of them thru their actions is not flip flopping. It’s rather normal. But this clown knows that. They all know that.

  • @dungeoneering1974
    @dungeoneering1974 3 місяці тому +49

    Nikki Haley as a VP pick would have ended the enthusiastic support Trump had from his base. Marcio Rubio would have been a wash.

    • @carsandsports123
      @carsandsports123 3 місяці тому

      Nah his base would follow him regardless if pick

    • @jaimekuyper6347
      @jaimekuyper6347 3 місяці тому

      You can immediately smell his TDS as soon as he says Vance was a bad choice.

    • @davidw3658
      @davidw3658 3 місяці тому

      His comment on Nikki Haley or an “establishment Republican” being a better pick than Vance put his biases on full display made me mentally check out.

    • @chickenfishhybrid44
      @chickenfishhybrid44 2 місяці тому

      People still don't grasp that Neo cons and people like Haley are exactly what Trump is a reaction against. These people still don't seem to grasp the changes in the GOP voting base. They seem to think just because the GOP establishment has been able to mostly get it's way still so far means that there actually hasn't been much change in the Republican party. Any Republican exposure people like Silver or other people in the PMC or elite space are going to get is going to be more libertarian or never Trump types and that's obviously going to bias their perspective.

  • @nathanv536
    @nathanv536 3 місяці тому +106

    As an independent if trump would have picked Rubio or Haley I would absolutely not vote for him…Vance shows some promise at least.

    • @stevensosebee7452
      @stevensosebee7452 3 місяці тому +4

      After the VP debate agreed

    • @edmundwong5571
      @edmundwong5571 3 місяці тому +11

      He lost me when he says Hayley or Rubio would have been better than Vance. He too lives in his little buble..

    • @Joaopereira-dh3dw
      @Joaopereira-dh3dw 3 місяці тому +4

      You're maga

    • @stevensosebee7452
      @stevensosebee7452 3 місяці тому +5

      @@Joaopereira-dh3dw I'm liking the Maha more

    • @colinschmitt6571
      @colinschmitt6571 3 місяці тому +6

      You are not an independent 😂

  • @indiecomicsjones
    @indiecomicsjones 3 місяці тому +264

    Nikki Haley? This guy it's about as well informed as Destiny

    • @wouterroos2359
      @wouterroos2359 3 місяці тому

      I always thought he is clever, well informed, and competent. He has no idea what he is talking about.
      Casually mentioned that one of the most corrupt, neocon warprofiteers will be a good VP pick. GTFO.

    • @nic1208
      @nic1208 3 місяці тому

      100% This guy obviously doesn't listen to what people actually say. No Trump supporter or very few wanted either of those people in any way

    • @OhWellWhatTheHell1
      @OhWellWhatTheHell1 3 місяці тому +6

      Bad point of comparison imo, there’s good reason to dislike destiny but he comes correct when it comes to the actual info

    • @whiteymcwhiterson3974
      @whiteymcwhiterson3974 3 місяці тому +4

      ​@@OhWellWhatTheHell1😅

    • @OhWellWhatTheHell1
      @OhWellWhatTheHell1 3 місяці тому

      @@whiteymcwhiterson3974 🙂

  • @VegasCyclingFreak
    @VegasCyclingFreak 3 місяці тому +13

    31:50 That's because at least half of the population of Las Vegas are California transplants. Most of the construction and jobs such as landscaping is like 95% Mexicans. Casinos are a mixed bag. That's pretty much our two industries - construction and gaming. That's why we had a local DEPRESSION after the mortgage bubble fiasco 2008-2010. I think our true unemployment rate was at least 25% in 2009.

  • @EazyEcoli
    @EazyEcoli 3 місяці тому +36

    Love the show, Chris, but this guy ain't it. Glad to see I'm not the only one picking up on this.

  • @s.kelley9403
    @s.kelley9403 3 місяці тому +24

    The fact that he opened up saying things wont be like this ever again almost made me move on to another video. How is someone in the business of prediction not able to see how predictable the escalation of political tensions and vitriol will continue until the end of the country.

  • @sombd133
    @sombd133 3 місяці тому +136

    idk Chris, i think Nate is quite behind on how things are operating. His model of biasness and few other things is pretty behind. He clearly seems to have a tds to some extent. Marko rubio or nickey haley... lol that would lose almost all of Trump's support. Its a simple case of Gell-Mann's amnesia, within his own field. He is so deep into his research that any variable, that he hasnt encountered or any new data, he is rationalizing it doesnt impact his model. Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias in play. If you dont look at it from persuasion variable and the tools being used, this is non-sense.

    • @jre2775
      @jre2775 3 місяці тому +2

      All my conservative Middle Eastern and libertarian leaning friends would not vote for Trump if he picked her. That was the worst take I’ve ever heard lmaoi

    • @dyeell0499
      @dyeell0499 3 місяці тому +1

      I’m 23 minutes in and he just mentioned Haley or Rubio being better than Vance and I he to check the comments. Sure enough, this guy lost me there. Not listening to the rest of his opinions if he thinks that.

    • @tristanwojtas7972
      @tristanwojtas7972 2 місяці тому

      Both directions lol!!!! 🤡

  • @mco51193
    @mco51193 3 місяці тому +36

    Was this recorded before or after the debate? I wonder if Silver still thinks JD Vance doesn't sell well to the American public.

    • @Zummbot
      @Zummbot 3 місяці тому +3

      JD’s favorability is still underwater. The debate changed nothing.

    • @mco51193
      @mco51193 3 місяці тому +5

      @@Zummbot Can you cite your source for his numbers post-debate? Other than your opinion?

    • @Zummbot
      @Zummbot 3 місяці тому

      @@mco51193 538 compiles favorability polling. Latest for JD post debate is -6.

    • @Zummbot
      @Zummbot 3 місяці тому

      @@mco51193538 compiles favorability polling. JD’s latest post debate is minus 6.

    • @BirdDogey1
      @BirdDogey1 3 місяці тому

      I don't see the VP candidates impacting the election.

  • @ZiggleFingers
    @ZiggleFingers 3 місяці тому +14

    22:41 its clear this guy has lost his mind. i've learned next to nothing from him until here, this mark and this solidifies that he is out of touch.

  • @lauramorris1975
    @lauramorris1975 3 місяці тому +37

    I work with a LOT of very liberal people. They are quite vocal and don't hesitate to say what they think. I have NEVER heard anyone say they thought the media was biased against Democrats. Is he trying to push a narrative, thinking that if he says it we'll believe it?

    • @tstartrekdude
      @tstartrekdude 3 місяці тому

      It is very very much a twitter thing. It has been a super common belief with the Biden ride or die folks in the liberal writer/pundit crowd. How they got the name blue-MAGA by the more centrist liberals.

    • @Faciler473
      @Faciler473 3 місяці тому

      Have you seen the 2016 election. For MONTHS the major news outlets treated Hillary Clinton’s email server like it was the end of the world. Then this summer the major news outlets just shit on Joe Biden for weeks.

    • @BrianPhobos
      @BrianPhobos 3 місяці тому

      I felt like that too and he is trying to push there narrative that it's neck and neck which is BS. It's likely 70% Trump but they are trying to convince everyone it's close so when they cheat people may sort of believe it.

    • @ryanmurner9568
      @ryanmurner9568 3 місяці тому

      it's obvious

    • @kittyfeline6857
      @kittyfeline6857 3 місяці тому

      Like Trump does? No CNN definitely went more right after 2020 election. Trying to get more viewers.

  • @TimBitts649
    @TimBitts649 3 місяці тому +16

    "Predictions are hard. Especially about the future." Yogi Berra, baseball legend.

  • @zphreaky
    @zphreaky 3 місяці тому +30

    Nate Silver's mind was unburdened by what has been for a long, long time.

    • @Blessed_22
      @Blessed_22 3 місяці тому +1

      Hahahahhaahah!!! 😂 Love this!

  • @nnhk0056
    @nnhk0056 3 місяці тому +73

    Nate Silver is no longer someone I trust.

    • @seanhartel5362
      @seanhartel5362 3 місяці тому +4

      It’s scary that he ever was. Dude has always been delusional.

  • @CMVBrielman
    @CMVBrielman 3 місяці тому +158

    Silver ignoring that Harris is hiding because she’s about as good speaking to people as Biden is - for entirely different reasons.

    • @Agimus_AGO56
      @Agimus_AGO56 3 місяці тому +1

      I support Kamala, and I actually agree. When asked about the Rittenhouse verdict, Biden said that we should respect the court outcome and trust the process. Kamal, as a former prosecutor, promoted the idea that Rittenhouse should have been found guilty because he's white by saying that we had more work to make towards equal justice. She says things like this all of the time. I used to aay that she was to Biden what Sara Palin was to John McCain. I thought it was disastrous when Biden stepped down.
      Having said that, she came out in front of the Israel issue quick, and seems to make decisions based on her advisors. I'm convinced that she doesn't act as impulsively as she speaks.

    • @Coco-f1n
      @Coco-f1n 3 місяці тому

      @@Agimus_AGO56 She's not competent, but it doesn't matter much because she's a puppet of the deep state.

    • @M98747
      @M98747 3 місяці тому +4

      ​@@Agimus_AGO56Tim Walz is Sarah Palin. Comes off nice but kinda goofy, but I don't trust them to be president when the chips are down and everything goes to crap.
      Kamala has no discernable guiding principles. She's changed her position on every major issue based upon whatever is politically expedient for her.
      She's held nearly every drastically radical position at one point, yet has more flip flops than a water park locker room.

    • @Agimus_AGO56
      @Agimus_AGO56 3 місяці тому +2

      @@M98747 Well, I was referring to Kamala and Biden. I thought her opinions were so far left that it made Biden seem extreme, like Palin did with McCain. It is goofy, and a little far fetched, sure.
      She does say dumb things. I completely agree, but when she acts she does so in a calculated matter, and seems to listen to her advisers.
      During the debate, she made it clear that commander in chief was the most important role of the president and displayed a very good understanding of our national interests. Also, as an Army veteran who served under Biden, Trump, and Obama, I think Biden was an amazing commander in chief, and his support for her means a lot to me. Also, since she served under him, there couldn't be better training, in my mind.
      Trump is more likely to take advice from Putin, and ignore our own generals, who can't stand him. I don't get how people can back a man who deals with terrorists who butchered our troops, like when he made a deal with the Taliban.
      I wasn't going to back Haris, but when I heard Vance attack Walz over his service, I donated to the Haris campaign within a minute. Vance has no dignity or credibility. He said much worse about Trump than he has about kamala or anyone else. What does that say about his integrity or judgement? He's a sellout. That's the only answer to that mystery. Trump and Vance are both jokes.

    • @jasonr8364
      @jasonr8364 3 місяці тому +1

      Fake post

  • @name-vi6fs
    @name-vi6fs 3 місяці тому +143

    Every Kamala voter I've met is doing so because of Trump. I've never met an enthuisiastic Kamala voter.

    • @IwrekAzz
      @IwrekAzz 3 місяці тому +24

      You need to expand your horizon

    • @Mr.Coffee576
      @Mr.Coffee576 3 місяці тому +5

      Yeah that’s cap.🧢

    • @wouterroos2359
      @wouterroos2359 3 місяці тому

      This is gonna be a landslide. Nobody is voting for Kamala. If she wins I will really start questioning the intellect of the average American.

    • @marewmpinge419
      @marewmpinge419 3 місяці тому +5

      for biden yeah. for her thaere tens of millions of women who will enthusiastically vote because shes a woman

    • @name-vi6fs
      @name-vi6fs 3 місяці тому +2

      @marewmpinge419 I'm speaking from personal experience. I don't know millions of people. My female friends and family hate Trump and say they would vote for a "regular Republican" over Kamala.

  • @barakobama8194
    @barakobama8194 3 місяці тому +65

    I question his bias. Because RCP has Pennsylvania with a trump +1 but nate uses a poll with a harris +5 to drag down trumps approval rating even though that pollster was heavily wrong in 2020. Yet atlas polling was the most accurate and Nate doesn't weigh their polling heavier. Also nate silver does not look into cross tabs which show that the majority of these pollsters are over sampling democrats which is skewing them left.

    • @henryburton6529
      @henryburton6529 3 місяці тому +3

      Are you saying Nate Silver doesnt understand polling, statistics or election forecasting as well as you do?

    • @barakobama8194
      @barakobama8194 3 місяці тому

      ​@henryburton6529 no i am questioning his bias. He weighs pollsters who got it wrong in 2020 too heavily. They skew to far to the left. Also can you read?

    • @wisdomsdoorstep
      @wisdomsdoorstep 3 місяці тому +4

      @@henryburton6529yeah, it wouldn’t take much.

    • @henryburton6529
      @henryburton6529 3 місяці тому +1

      @@wisdomsdoorstep Insane arrogance

    • @wisdomsdoorstep
      @wisdomsdoorstep 3 місяці тому

      @@henryburton6529 lol, I agree that Nate Silver is a midwit who exhibits insane arrogance in manipulating data and selling it to the highest bidder.
      Or do you think Trump is an expert because he went to Wharton? Funny how you expert lovers only seem to love the experts who satisfy your biases.

  • @daxtonbrown
    @daxtonbrown 3 місяці тому +47

    I've done stock market and real estate prediction code. They have many pitfalls. I take Nate with a bucket of salt.

    • @papayama3678
      @papayama3678 3 місяці тому +6

      I take the rando in the youtube comments with a gallon of salt.

    • @justsomeguy9452
      @justsomeguy9452 3 місяці тому +1

      A ocean tanker full of salt for me.

    • @mpeters99
      @mpeters99 3 місяці тому +1

      Well you should take all prediction forecasts with a grain of salt. But Nate seems quite committed to following the data which is the absolute best you can hope for and anyone who understands prediction models knows that they are simply models to give a clearer picture of the race and a realistic range of outcomes, but no poll aggregator will ever get it totally right because the polls do not ever get it totally right.

    • @marclacasse1
      @marclacasse1 3 місяці тому +2

      @@mpeters99 Silver doesn’t do polling, he doesn’t know how. He’s a fraud.

    • @name-vi6fs
      @name-vi6fs 3 місяці тому

      ​@@mpeters99 because we don't pick up when they call us.

  • @DaVizzle_Bro
    @DaVizzle_Bro 3 місяці тому +45

    This podcast must have been filmed before the latest vice presidential debate....

    • @harryc8433
      @harryc8433 3 місяці тому

      You're crazy if you think they'll say anything positive about the Republicans whatever happens

    • @grantconway2664
      @grantconway2664 3 місяці тому

      Seems like it was but It was released on 10/3

  • @brianpope5596
    @brianpope5596 3 місяці тому +173

    Nate silver says the media isnt bias. LMAO. What realm is this guy living in?

    • @tstartrekdude
      @tstartrekdude 3 місяці тому +26

      He said the MSM isn't biased vs dems like they are paranoid about, and instead are center left, and there are also some on big forces on the right that provide balence.
      His take was pretty nuanced, your characterization is pretty bad.

    • @AIGuy1
      @AIGuy1 3 місяці тому +14

      What podcast are you listening to? Not this one, I guess?

    • @michaelfeeney9147
      @michaelfeeney9147 3 місяці тому +5

      At no point did he say that

    • @Honestly__now
      @Honestly__now 3 місяці тому

      Deluded. The fact of the matter is that The corporations and oligarchs run the networks and govt. they don’t control Trump. So the media censors and warps things to make it seem like Trump is evil when he is not. The neo con democrats war loving party is Kamala and Biden. Just ask the creep Dick Cheney who he is voting for

    • @mpeters99
      @mpeters99 3 місяці тому

      He didn’t say that. If anything he said the MSM is biased to the left lol

  • @reinhardtusa
    @reinhardtusa 2 місяці тому

    That was great! "Nate Silver" was a name I'd heard in so many different settings, so getting some background was awesome

  • @michaelwhipple347
    @michaelwhipple347 3 місяці тому +8

    I don't agree with Nate Silver on much, but i think it's important to hear his side so we can be informed. There is a lot of bias and you'll never have unbiased news. Glad Chris had Nate on

  • @johnekopy
    @johnekopy 3 місяці тому +51

    Was this recorded before the VP debate? JD Vance seems like the only sane person running right now.

    • @OhWellWhatTheHell1
      @OhWellWhatTheHell1 3 місяці тому +4

      I think if you think Vance came off sane you have to acknowledge Walz did as well, they agreed with each other on a ton of stuff

    • @johnekopy
      @johnekopy 3 місяці тому +1

      @@OhWellWhatTheHell1 I don't agree with any of the candidates on how the government should be run. But Vance still came across as the most down to earth, intelligent and cordial candidate to me.

    • @NottheotherAmber
      @NottheotherAmber 3 місяці тому +3

      One night doesn’t undo weeks of bad PR, earned or not.

    • @chadburke852
      @chadburke852 3 місяці тому

      @@kisungura_moyoyeah the blitz on him was insane

    • @giovannituber2827
      @giovannituber2827 3 місяці тому +2

      Actually Walz came off very weird

  • @gsml1393
    @gsml1393 3 місяці тому +59

    I love how the left's #1 (NUMBER ONE) topic for voting is abortion. LOLOLOL You cannot make this up. Not the economy, not WWIII, not out of control government spending...but getting their abortions. You guys are unbelievable. LOL

    • @Joaopereira-dh3dw
      @Joaopereira-dh3dw 3 місяці тому +2

      Got keep fundamentalists out

    • @barakobama8194
      @barakobama8194 3 місяці тому

      @@gsml1393 yup they are unbelievably dumb. Especially since abortion is left up to the states now. It's not even a federal issue. The people get to vote on what policies they want in their state. Democrats talk about democracy but cry when it doesn't go their way

    • @carsandsports123
      @carsandsports123 3 місяці тому +5

      ​@@Joaopereira-dh3dw You do relise American is one of the most radical countries in the world as far how far we allow abortions? So it's not just dumb to ignore other issues but also radicalized

    • @allhailsparta
      @allhailsparta 3 місяці тому +1

      enjoy losing over this issue LOLOLOL

    • @gsml1393
      @gsml1393 3 місяці тому +6

      @@allhailsparta your comment literally just proved my whole point. 😂😂😂

  • @dodathdo
    @dodathdo 3 місяці тому

    Absolutely love that you interviewed Nate. Don't see him doing long-form interviews much. I have even more respect now for both of you and really enjoyed this conversation.

  • @larkatmic
    @larkatmic 3 місяці тому +11

    Nevada is blue, because half, if not more of the population is from California.

  • @UbyTuesday
    @UbyTuesday 2 місяці тому

    Nate Silver is definitely the #1 Establishment Choice for polling stuff. Follows orders nicely.

  • @Csonka_Would_Run
    @Csonka_Would_Run 3 місяці тому +11

    Choosing an establishment republican as a VP candidate would have single handedly caused Trump to lose the election.

  • @paulmarshall9189
    @paulmarshall9189 3 місяці тому +10

    Good example of the difference between intelligence and basic common sense - and of the tendency for people who demonstrate intelligence through manipulation of data to make stuff up.
    60 years ago, we were voting on 2 competing versions of one idea. Now we are voting on 2 completely different ideas. One of them is based on our Constitution and foundational principles, and the other is based on overturning them.

    • @colinschmitt6571
      @colinschmitt6571 3 місяці тому

      I agree, trump saying we should terminate the constitution and override democratic elections is scary

  • @dragonrider7796
    @dragonrider7796 3 місяці тому +6

    A good follow up to his assertion that after J6 Trump is more of a threat to democracy would have been, " do you think that Democrats are a threat given how Harris didn't receive a single vote to become the nominee?" Where is/was democracy then?

    • @kittyfeline6857
      @kittyfeline6857 3 місяці тому

      They gave those votes at the convention. Mute point.

    • @dragonrider7796
      @dragonrider7796 3 місяці тому +1

      @@kittyfeline6857 the delegates gave those votes at the convention not the people in the individual states that the delegates come from so it’s not a moot point

  • @indiecomicsjones
    @indiecomicsjones 3 місяці тому +16

    Chris, you should be interviewing the guy from Rasmussen reports

    • @colinschmitt6571
      @colinschmitt6571 3 місяці тому +1

      The paid republican sponsor that got 2022 horrifically wrong 😂

    • @caleb.horowitz
      @caleb.horowitz 2 місяці тому

      The most biased pollster lmao

  • @jared2lit
    @jared2lit 2 місяці тому

    Great interview Chris!!

  • @KL-nj9oe
    @KL-nj9oe 3 місяці тому +5

    The more Kamel talks, the more she goes down.

  • @Tlamblamb
    @Tlamblamb 3 місяці тому

    Your interviews just keep leveling up! I mean you started with Douglas Murray, how could you go up from there? Welp, your guest quality is constantly awesome and your level of conversationalismocracying just keeps getting better and better.

  • @ProfessorNinjaWizard
    @ProfessorNinjaWizard 3 місяці тому +4

    Can confirm, as an Arizona voter, almost every UA-cam ad is political.

    • @FossilStudios316
      @FossilStudios316 3 місяці тому

      Our elections were always smooth before Katey Hobbs was Secretary of State. Weird how she managed to fail upward.

  • @RobertPender
    @RobertPender 3 місяці тому

    Excellent podcast and episode Chris. Such pointed and meaty questions throughout. Keep up the good work man 👏

  • @iiandreio4228
    @iiandreio4228 3 місяці тому +6

    Bro said Nikki Haley would have been a better vp 😂

  • @LizetteSolomon-f4w
    @LizetteSolomon-f4w 2 місяці тому +1

    Stopped watching when he said, the mainstream media is not bias. What planet does he live on?

  • @esava44
    @esava44 3 місяці тому +25

    How is she saying that Harris is a good politician? She's legit the worst.

    • @TheJollyMisanthrope
      @TheJollyMisanthrope 3 місяці тому +1

      She's good at lying to climb the ladder of political power. So if that's the criteria then she's a good politician.

    • @jasonc4641
      @jasonc4641 2 місяці тому

      @@TheJollyMisanthrope She was good at servicing Willie Brown. That gave her DA of San Fran and AG of California. Which gave her Senate for California. Biden picked her because she checked two boxes and wouldnt upstage him because of her incompetence. She is not a good politician.

  • @sevenstepsurvival
    @sevenstepsurvival 3 місяці тому +44

    Comrade Kamala is def going down

    • @AmyRussell-h1t
      @AmyRussell-h1t 3 місяці тому

      It’s funny when you guys call her Comrade Harris when Putin would most definitely prefer Trump in office because he’s a dictator sympathizer and easy to manipulate. This is why Russia spreads so much misinformation online to HELP Trump win. But keep on keeping on 🙄

    • @kittyfeline6857
      @kittyfeline6857 3 місяці тому +1

      Only to people who do not know very much.

    • @ГлебВерховский-п2р
      @ГлебВерховский-п2р 3 місяці тому

      Keep on dreaming. She is our next president

  • @StevieivetS
    @StevieivetS 3 місяці тому +8

    This guy needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

  • @yourphlevel
    @yourphlevel 3 місяці тому

    Thanks for this episode chris 💜

  • @fpalisse
    @fpalisse 3 місяці тому +25

    Kamala is not getting bad advice she is bad unscripted.

    • @jaimekuyper6347
      @jaimekuyper6347 3 місяці тому

      Also just a bad person. You can’t hide it forever. Even the woman best at hiding her crazy could only hide it from me for 6 months. Look that shit up that’s truth.

  • @edwards3217
    @edwards3217 3 місяці тому +65

    Trump 2024 🇺🇸

    • @USABeauboy
      @USABeauboy 3 місяці тому

      ​@AM2K2 Because it's a waste of time while in the middle of casting votes.
      I just dropped my voter ballot today.
      Kamala is emotionally immature. She is only a mud slinging non-issue. No one voted for her. No one.
      I advise Trump to stay on the rally trails and help hurricane victims.

    • @robertlynch9678
      @robertlynch9678 3 місяці тому +3

      He wanted to. She was too chickenshit to debate on Fox. She needs biased moderators to help her.

    • @jasonr8364
      @jasonr8364 3 місяці тому

      ​@@robertlynch9678fox news is fake news

  • @Patriotintexas
    @Patriotintexas 3 місяці тому +20

    This guy is literally delusional

  • @scottpulver
    @scottpulver 3 місяці тому +2

    He's an entertainer ... I give him that. Everyone gets a moment in the sun apparently

  • @FFC2020-may
    @FFC2020-may 3 місяці тому +6

    Kamala is TERRIBLE in interviews

  • @VegasCyclingFreak
    @VegasCyclingFreak 3 місяці тому +2

    30:29 Correct. Just about every ad on TV here in Las Vegas right now is a political ad, except for the evening news which is all big pharma BS AND political ads. So tired of it already!

  • @jimpollard113
    @jimpollard113 3 місяці тому +8

    Silver has no clue if he thinks Nikki Haley would have been a good VP choice. Geez.

    • @kittyfeline6857
      @kittyfeline6857 3 місяці тому

      He's right, usually a candidate pics a vice that will bring to the table something they do not have. Someone who is strong in something they lack , for Trump that would be a more moderate VP pick, more normal traditional conservative to counter act his far right wing bat shit craziness😂 Vance doesn't brig much he's very Trumpish, if you don't include the time before he got on the Trump train when he called him America's Hitler. The guys doing what it takes for a shot at power.

    • @ГлебВерховский-п2р
      @ГлебВерховский-п2р 3 місяці тому

      She would be a great choice because that choice would unite the GOP

  • @markcavandish1295
    @markcavandish1295 3 місяці тому +1

    I love how Chris just starts with a question. No BS

  • @chrisr4932
    @chrisr4932 3 місяці тому +4

    Guy's not the brightest bulb in the box.

  • @samuelroth6590
    @samuelroth6590 3 місяці тому +1

    JD is awesome 😊

  • @USABeauboy
    @USABeauboy 3 місяці тому +3

    Rasmussen Mark Mitchell is a dedicated, detailed polster.

    • @colinschmitt6571
      @colinschmitt6571 3 місяці тому

      Rasmussen is literally a paid republican pollster that got 2022 horrifically wrong

  • @DCzero50
    @DCzero50 3 місяці тому

    Just finished nates first book signal and the noise. Definitely a good read

  • @keredeht
    @keredeht 3 місяці тому +30

    TRUMP2024.... MAGA FOREVER!!!

  • @BirdDogey1
    @BirdDogey1 3 місяці тому +1

    I've worked in politics most of my adult life. Most very wealthy people are not affiliated strongly with either party. They always go with their pocketbook. Social issues are irrelevant. What is good for them personally is the over riding factor.

  • @regi8838
    @regi8838 3 місяці тому +6

    WHY WHY why are folks w a platform, praising Nate Silver?! IF you do your research re politics, his record is NOT worth the praise he’s getting. Is he paying folks to platform him to increase his book sale? Idk about his sports betting record. Maybe he’s strong there. He is partisan, doesn’t have a great record re politics, and cannot be trusted re politics. If good re sports betting, maybe that’s where he should be praised, but NOT on politics! Just stop giving him credit he doesn’t deserve. It’s a disservice to voters. Better yet, have him AND someone better re politics polling etc., like Rich Baris, to debate.

  • @grizzlyk9518
    @grizzlyk9518 3 місяці тому

    21:34 someone is going to make a meme out of that 4 second clip...😂😂

  • @ryandannenhauer
    @ryandannenhauer 3 місяці тому +4

    It seems like this was filmed before the VP debate

  • @goodtimes1046
    @goodtimes1046 3 місяці тому

    32:06 I'm a Nevadan. Many non-whites have shifted more toward conservative because there's less of a us-vs-them mentality here. Once liberals achieve their dream of getting rid of racism (on the conservative side), you find conservatives significantly more likable. We fillet a dude for referencing a hanging tree like it was nothing. We're still dysfunctional as all hell, but racism really isn't a big issue here. Maybe a small town or two...

  • @kateoverdier8716
    @kateoverdier8716 3 місяці тому +7

    Who else would consider a National Divorce? Let the counties or states that want unlimited social programs, abortion, & trans care, those who want to accept all immigrants here since 2020, those who are okay with government supervised speech online & limited 2A access, those who prefer to convert to solar & wind, to all electric homes & drive electric cars, those who want to continue supporting the Ukraine & are okay with the taxes or economy that produces vote for Kamala & be their own country under her administration?
    And, let counties or states that want limited social programs, limited abortion, trans surgery only by adults who pay for it, who want to remove immigrants that came in since 2020 & want the border closed, want unlimited free speech & 2A Rights, no more funding for Ukraine or MidEast conflicts, & are happy to accept the economy & taxes that go with that, vote for Trump & live under his administration.
    Would you be okay to go your own way & live with people who think & vote like you if it meant the other side lived all together & you didn't have to debate with, pay for, or cater to the other side? You might have to move, or maybe your boss or neighbors would move, but it would safe, respectful, & each side would leave the other alone. Without any logistical objections, if this could happen, would you be up for it? The NorthEast coast, Michigan, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington & maybe Arizona might become the Progressive States of America, and the Midwest, the South, & the Mountain states might become the Constitutional States of America. Separate budgets, separate laws, separate foreign wars, & separate taxes. And no more arguing, no more stress. Would you be up for it?
    I would. (And I might have to move, but would do so without complaint, (though I love where I live & was born where I reside.) Who else would be okay with something similar to this?

    • @daniellejohnson3130
      @daniellejohnson3130 3 місяці тому +3

      I've been saying this for years! I think people on both sides would be so much happier to have a government that represents their values. The way things are going, I think there will be a very uncivil war in our near future-- no matter who gets elected.

    • @marierobbins6771
      @marierobbins6771 3 місяці тому +1

      We are at that point, now we just need to pick which parent we want to live with. Act 3 of Kramer vs Kramer

    • @ShaneNickers
      @ShaneNickers 3 місяці тому +4

      Conservative gay dude saying amen to that 🙏🏻

  • @bumpupsapp
    @bumpupsapp 3 місяці тому

    Hey Everyone 🤠
    Find the parts that interest you:
    0:00 - Overview of the election cycle
    1:01 - Impact of Trump's previous elections
    2:34 - Challenges in polling accuracy
    9:47 - Immigration as a key issue
    12:48 - Importance of undecided voters
    20:04 - Balancing optics in political campaigns
    22:44 - Trump's controversial pick of JD Vance
    28:01 - Impact of wokeness on political messaging
    30:24 - Key states determining the election
    32:53 - Third-party candidates and political adaptation
    40:28 - Concerns about social status and credentials
    42:07 - Partisanship affecting expertise during COVID
    45:01 - Sam Bankman-Fried's overconfidence and risk-taking
    50:57 - The allure of crypto profits
    52:37 - Compounded knowledge vs. cyclical knowledge
    1:00:53 - Discussing the power of attention
    1:05:44 - Traits for dealing with risk effectively
    Recap by Bumpups ✏️

  • @marg0049
    @marg0049 3 місяці тому +3

    Commenters are mad at a statistician for pointing out JD Vance has poor poled favorability. I know people get emotional about their favorite politicians, but the numbers are what they are.

  • @charlesb23
    @charlesb23 3 місяці тому

    Thank you for having Nate Silver on. It is nice to hear from a real mathemetician / statistician. It is a nice break from the standard math illiteracy fare for the masses. Roughly 91% of whom are less than proficient in math.

  • @johnbellingham8051
    @johnbellingham8051 3 місяці тому +5

    Really not an expert.

  • @lemmyrocker6209
    @lemmyrocker6209 3 місяці тому

    Nailed it!! loved the convo dude, awsome chat - CW!!!, PS - Lovin the the Stash!!!Rock'n' Roll it Brother!!! - P.S - get some CB boots while your in Austin "Texas" A.K.A - THE LONE ⭐STATE!!!Rock On!!!

  • @loganculver9058
    @loganculver9058 3 місяці тому +4

    Nikki haley? This guy is clueless

  • @Uphold-your-Rights
    @Uphold-your-Rights 3 місяці тому +24

    As soon as he mentioned Nikki Haley as a VP choice, this episode was over.
    Nate can't be trusted at all.
    Nikki Haley...lol. He might as well have said obama or Bush.

    • @BobPandolfo
      @BobPandolfo 3 місяці тому

      Nikki Haley might be an even bigger war monger than Hillary.

  • @mandotherapper2586
    @mandotherapper2586 3 місяці тому

    as someone who used to collect political polls for a paycheck, I promise you way more people participate than youd expect. we had a whole call center. the bar not to get cut and sent home was 1.5 - 2 per hour. so in some random small town alone we were collecting dozens per hour, any election cycle

  • @harleywallen5351
    @harleywallen5351 3 місяці тому +6

    I’m a bit disappointed, Chris.. You’re smarter than that. What you call flip-flopping are concessions! Since you brought up the fracking conversation, it’s not like she is suddenly for fracking is the fact that we have an unstable world with unstable supply and that we could suffer from not doing some thing potentially long-term with negative consequences for a short term of positive. Flip-flopping would be saying abortion is murder and then saying that murder is sometimes OK, so maybe the conversation should be with that side.

    • @mco51193
      @mco51193 3 місяці тому

      If you're too blind to see that she is "changing" her long-held positions about important issues to get votes, most which she held publicly at least as recently as 2020, then you probably shouldn't be lecturing anyone about how smart they are or aren't :) Also, she isn't actually changing her views, just lying that she's changing them...once she's in office, she'll be behind the same policies she always supported and against those she's always been against, including fracking. This is what liars do: they lie.

  • @TedErhartCFP
    @TedErhartCFP 3 місяці тому

    Great discussion!

  • @LateGameThreat
    @LateGameThreat 3 місяці тому +31

    Vote for Trump. End this madness.

    • @FacundoCampazzo123
      @FacundoCampazzo123 3 місяці тому +5

      Ah yes, Trump, things totally got calmer when he was president lol

    • @NadiaSeesIt
      @NadiaSeesIt 3 місяці тому +3

      @FacundoCampazzo123
      No wars and we could buy eggs, sounds pretty good to me

    • @lucasdieter1939
      @lucasdieter1939 3 місяці тому +3

      ​@FacundoCampazzo123 while I agree that Trump is erratic, we were not at war or risking major wars during his presidency. World seems to be more dangerous now.

    • @_x__q
      @_x__q 3 місяці тому

      MIC wins either way.

    • @trulytrue8008
      @trulytrue8008 3 місяці тому +4

      People saying “Vote for Trump” IS the madness. No thanks.

  • @jedlink136
    @jedlink136 3 місяці тому +1

    The answer to the paradox of 'we don't have too much power' and 'if the other team wins, apocalypse" can be found in a rather revealing statement made by Franklin Roosevelt in his 1936 address to Congress: "We have built up new institutions of public power. In the hands of a people's government this power is wholesome and proper. But in the hands of political puppets of an economic autocracy such power would provide shackles for the liberties of the people."
    Basically it's not important what power there is, but rather who wields it. The expansion of the federal government into every facet of our lives means that who controls the levers of power has a shocking amount of petty authority to dramatically impact our daily lives.

  • @JohnnyBrook
    @JohnnyBrook 3 місяці тому +8

    Agency, plurality, reciprocity: three concepts antithetical to the current Democratic Party. Try going against the group by asserting your own agency, by engaging with a plurality of views, and there will be very little reciprocity. More like wrath.

  • @kennethmarkwith4678
    @kennethmarkwith4678 3 місяці тому +1

    As soon as he said JD Vance was a mistake pick and that Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley would've been better, he ruined any credibility he had as far as I'm concerned. Either Vivek or JD was the right pick and maybe Byron Donalds can be in that discussion as well.

  • @SlimJimGod
    @SlimJimGod 3 місяці тому +4

    Chris seems like a moderate guy. Why is his audience filled with such diehard trumpers? Everyone in the comments is so quick to hate just because this guy isnt a trump shill. Chris is very open minded, you guys should try and actually listen to his guests that you disagree with.

  • @ElijahMedinaVids
    @ElijahMedinaVids 3 місяці тому

    Handle bar mustache Chris, Hell yeah 🗣️🗣️🗣️

  • @politicalqueso
    @politicalqueso 3 місяці тому +5

    Nate silver has a terrible prediction record. So bad he got fired from 538. I don't understand why people keep giving him he time of day

  • @ccrosby1776
    @ccrosby1776 3 місяці тому

    Thank you.

  • @Garrett122
    @Garrett122 3 місяці тому +3

    Why him? 100% of Political polls are just an Intelligence Operation have proven untrustworthy, and he makes predictions off of polls. Why not just pick 10 random people from your audience?

  • @bearmanguy
    @bearmanguy 3 місяці тому

    Love the shirt chris!🤘

  • @jamesdomenico2953
    @jamesdomenico2953 3 місяці тому +6

    How does Nate Silver stay employed as a Pollster. He is a clown. Maybe check out Rich Baris. A much much more accurate Pollster.

  • @Thrasherbear
    @Thrasherbear 3 місяці тому +2

    Looks like Elijah Wood if he secretly kept the one ring from the LotR movie set.

  • @camilleruggiero3098
    @camilleruggiero3098 3 місяці тому +18

    Same as last time. Add 20M ill eagle votes in key states, take several days to add more ballots so you win by 10K votes

    • @markzbikowski4397
      @markzbikowski4397 3 місяці тому

      Here we 🤬 go again...I just Wana know it's secure

  • @landsystems5807
    @landsystems5807 3 місяці тому

    Came for the comments, and they did not dissappint!

  • @Korea-Lens
    @Korea-Lens 3 місяці тому +5

    silver seems out of touch with regards to Trump's social acceptability.

    • @chriswhinery925
      @chriswhinery925 3 місяці тому

      You only needed the first five words of that sentence. He doesn't have a clue what's going on, on any topicl

  • @RandyPass
    @RandyPass 3 місяці тому +1

    When the only tool you have is a Chris Williamson, everything looks like a meme 😂

  • @FrankOdonnell-ej3hd
    @FrankOdonnell-ej3hd 3 місяці тому +3

    Please stop saying “it’s not my first rodeo”. I mean, for the love of god. Please.⚛️

  • @larrypicard8802
    @larrypicard8802 3 місяці тому

    I was visiting my mom in NC last month and the onslaught of political commercials was insane..

  • @bobzacamano658
    @bobzacamano658 3 місяці тому +3

    Trump 2024! ❤❤❤❤❤❤

  • @clint3868
    @clint3868 3 місяці тому +2

    People in the comments just don’t like Nate silver because yourube too much republican bias. Thank you for having him on and giving another perspective

  • @8thdayadventist911
    @8thdayadventist911 3 місяці тому +4

    It's hard to take someone serious if they genuinely believe "January 6th" was an insurrection. If you believe was an "insurrection" than you need to get your vision checked. You're probably legally blind😂

  • @guywalsh3283
    @guywalsh3283 3 місяці тому

    Chris is doing Nate dirty with the lighting! 😂
    Chris the set up looks incredible. Can you please advise Matthew Goodwin on video presentation.