Nate Silver on how to predict the 2024 election
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- Опубліковано 15 вер 2024
- Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village.
Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.
1:00 How Nate got into politics
4:05 The river vs the village
9:15 Neuroticism within risk
11:30 The tech revolution and AI
19:00 Bitcoin and blockchain
23:00 Predicting elections
27:00 Harris vs Trump
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As an erstwhile 538 viewer, I had high expectations of this interview but it was way more interesting than I anticipated. I learnt more about him than I knew before.
What's puzzling is why he's still a Democrat when he clearly has a rivera mentality.
The world’s most famous election prognosticator? Certainly not the most accurate.
He’s been wrong SO many times
I can recall David Frum interviewing someone in 2004 and the interviewee mentioned that "England GDP per head is ahead of the US". My sister was living in California at the time so I thought to myself "What a bag of sh*t". I informed David Frum that the UK currency was overvalued at that time and that the UK's GDP per head was 71% of the US in 1913 and was about that level in real terms in 2004. It still is today, adjusting for currency levels. If the US spends 17% of its income on healthcare for poorer outcomes compared to 10% in Europe we should be wary of taking everything at face value.
The US politicians are not as mentally ill regarding fossil fuels as their European counterparts so the US has had some real gains there. As regards the high-tech giants - how many of them make real profits? Their stock market values will fall back to normal P/E multiples in next year's recession.
Americano is the easily the best thing at the Spectator & Freddy has a lot to do with that. He seems sometimes like the only grown up at a publication staffed with smart ( but smug ) sixth formers from a public school
Nate Silver is the George Costanza of American pollsters.
LOL! Thank you!! I totally agree.
How much did this upset you?
It wasn't upsetting. It just wasn't very enlightening. I didn't learn anything that I didn't already know. I mean, Nate Silver is just a pollster.
Yea 100%! And to people who say well he got 46 or 47 of 50 states. There like 7 swing states give or take so he got like 3-4 states of 7. Might as well flip a coin. In a tight race it’s like almost 50-50 so yeah pretty much a flip of a coin.
What an interesting and original man.
T at least he was loved and taken care of at the end of his life and saved from dying alone in the streets. Bless all you rescuers for taking care of these abandoned animals
Vance IS a smart pick.
The most disliked VP in history is a smart pick?
Yeah right...the only thing J.D. is good for is helping Trump lose. Being a post menopausal cat lady I can predict that Trump is going to jail at some point, not to the W.H.
@@DanFromMerdo why is he disliked? Would it be because the media has done everything in its power to smear him as weird amongst other attacks of his character? Watch and listen to him for yourself and make your own conclusions mate.
@@DanFromMerdo that would be kamala, not Vance
@@chadsolomon571 yeah polling shows otherwise.
What was Nate Silvers prediction in 2020 based on this same model?
12:05 What VC firms get 20% returns on average? Lets say over 10 and 20 year time horizons to make it easier
8:15 What's the sense of economic growth, if it doesn't translate into quality of life?
I'm asking for a friend.
The rich get rich. Which is the reason why so many rich ppl donate to political parties.
We have a large immigration population, who tend to be lower income, which leads to lower per capita wealth.
What's his track record?
@@chantalsimpendingheartatta9355 2016 said Hillary had a 79% chance of winning. And when trump won he said “well I did say he had a 21% chance” 😂
@@mikeimpressionsreviews9831 From Wiki - Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
He has a very bad track record
@@KenWaites Bull.
@@mikeimpressionsreviews9831 Which was one of the best results out there. EVERYONE got 2016 wrong.
What is a revarian (9:17) ?
4:05
@@cora4934 🤦♂
In Nate Silver’s book, On the Edge, “The River” and “The Village” represent two distinct societal groups:
-- The River: This group consists of professional risk-takers, such as poker players, hedge fund managers, and venture capitalists. They are characterized by their high tolerance for risk, individualism, and market-oriented mindset. They are "Riverians".
-- The Village: This group includes intellectuals and professionals in fields like media, academia, and government. They are often seen as more risk-averse and politically progressive. They are "Villagers".
Nate Silver is a nobody with a BS in Economics just like myself, but, unlike myself , he's willing to do anything for national attention,... GET ON THE TRUMPIST WAGON !!!!!!!!!!
You know more than Silver and have less attention cos you don’t want it 😂
Good interview, interesting man, tiptoeing a bit, but generally honest.
However, Is it possible for Mr Silver to say a sentence without peppering it with “Like” 10 times?
Like, no?
Blah blah blah
Nate's bias is showing. Vance is a brilliant pick. He will be the most consequential VP since Cheney. No voter has to go past Trump to make a decision. Whereas Walz is a leftist syncophant-who is he going to help Harris with? RFKjr endorsement is bigger than either VP pick in terms of the election.
Nah, Vance is weird, vibes are off
@@Leicestercityrules24🤣
Picking someone who doesn't expand your coalition at all isn't smart
this comment alone shows your bias. Calling someone biased while leaving one of the most biased comments on the videos is crazy. Vance when looking at the data wasn't the best pick. He doesn't resonate with crucial voters that Trump needs that he already didn't have.
@@chandlerbbbbThe fact that Trump theoretically needs those votes demonstrates the worrying state the country is in.
Nope.
He has a terrible track record 🤣
According to who
@@kathydegan8341 everyone
They all do, but his is one of the least worst.
Alan lichtman has never been wrong
@@monicae0601 well he’s predicting Harris will win
Trump 2024.
Yet another branch of Bullology?
Your viewers have an amazing span of attention.
He has never been right! Alan just predicted Kamala!
Lies
@@Jamie2764 RUssian
@trave7644 Alan also says biden has a better chance according to his keys which is batshit crazy
The biased and most partisan guy who wrongly predicted 2000 and 2016 pv winner??
Gotchu.
The only person Dems can rely on rn 😭
Nate Silver has been the most correct 😂
This guy is so wrong every time 😂😂
@@jtothecc2421 I believe Allan, Lichtman, he been doing predictions for a long time time
Oh I remember when Nate Silver had a full set of hair and weighed 100 pounds less...
The guest is not very good.
Nate Silver is a joke
Wow Nate silver has a warped view of the world. He thinks he is quite smarter than the rest of the world.
He is less smart than you 😂
Nate is incapable of predicting that the Sun will rise tomorrow. When was the last time he was right about ANYTHING? oh yes, a lucky guess in 2008
@@davidharrington1133 facts💯. Nate Silver lost my respect after his botched polling of 2016. And he's been wrong ever since. I'm favoring Dr Allan Lichtman's predictions. He has a better track record.
@@pushermann8008 litchman will finally get it wrong this time
Thank God just heard Allan Litchman’s prediction predicting Harris will win the presidency 2024! Allan explained the 13 keys for explaining why & how she will win.
@@theresaarnold5776 keep dreaming
A biased guy who got 2000 wrong and 2016 pv winner wrong? Gotchu.
Makes sense why you would believe an anti Trump and partisan person like him.
Super! We wouldn’t understand Silver’s model 😂
He was fired because he mad stuff up...
He is WRONG and NOT ACCURATE !!!! Lichtman will wipe him to oblivion