Housing Market: Pullback or Crash?
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- Опубліковано 27 чер 2022
- Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments.
Ben Reppond
(406) 871-3321
ben@reppondinvestments.com
Learn how we manage money: • The Big Picture in Inv...
Instagram: @benreppond
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This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.’s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or not.
Reppond Investments, Inc. does not make any guarantee that our strategies will or are likely to achieve returns like those shown in the performance graph in this presentation. Reppond Investments, Inc. reserves the right to trade different ETFs or mutual funds within a strategy than those reflected in the graphic shown. Stock market indices are unmanaged, broadly based indices, which differ in numerous respects from the specific portfolio composition. An investor cannot invest directly in these. Dividends and income are included in the index returns. The S&P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. However, Reppond Investments, Inc. makes no representations or guarantees with respect to the accuracy or completeness of that type of data.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. The historical performance results for indices and index funds, used as proxies for indices, are provided exclusively for comparison purposes. They are intended to provide general comparative information to help an individual client or prospective client in deciding whether the performance of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies meet, or continue to meet, his/her investment objective(s). An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.
Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a client’s or prospective client’s portfolio. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. They have not been independently audited or verified.
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This is the only channel I trust discussing finance. Well done sir and thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you for the kind and modest appreciation to your viewers. By way of background (so you have some context). I am based in the UK, have a background in financial services and currently run a software business that we set up in 2011. I am deeply appreciative of your sober, sensible and pragmatic discourse. Definitely informational and smart. There are three channels that are must listen to for myself and yours is one of them. Others I may dip in / out of from time to time. Thank you sir!
Wow. What a generous comment. Thank you so much.
What are the other channels if I may ask?
@@Petunia384 of course (perhaps you can also let me know what else you consider a useful source of information).
Maverick of Wall Street, which is different delivery style (sardonic pace), first class technical analysis and very well constructed macro commentary.. Peter Schiff whose macro / market summary is sharp… can be quite exhausting since a bit shouty and broadly opinionated, but seems to be well formed and smart as a longer range forecast. I tend to read quite a lot as well. I do not at present trade per se, rather lock into a longer term themes and allow that cycle to work through until my opinion changes.
PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING COMMENT IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANYONE. I CAN ONLY INVEST FOR MYSELF AND CAN ONLY ASSESS MY OWN RISK PROFILE AND FINANCIAL EXPENDITURE REQUIREMENTS… SO PLEASE MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS AND SEEK ADVICE FROM A SUITABLE PROFESSIONAL The point is … listening to people far more educated and smarter than myself (I mean that i.e. not just hyperbole) I decided to reduce my long exposure with a combination of cash and short positions last September (2021). I missed the mark for the end of year rally and needed to ride that though (was not easy)… I am currently trying to comprehend the next point of inflection and plan forward. The podcasts provide me with material to process my thinking… and of course I may just get things wrong, and that thought puts a healthy scepticism in my considerations.
Great podcast. I really enjoy listening.
Thanks for listening
You're awesome sir, keep up the good work.
Will do. Thank you.
You are easy to understand, slow, careful, visual graphics, it helps.
Thank you
You are welcome. Thanks for commenting.
Thanks for another great video. Since I found you a week ago, I have gone back and tried to watch all previous podcasts. Glad you are feeling better!
Thank you so much.
I love your work and respect your comments and personality.
You are a breathe of fresh air and down to earth , decent man.
Thank you.
Like your content and view points on different economic items
Thanks Edward.
Dear Ben, it would be interesting if you could do 1 x Video analysing just the New Zealand housing maket. (Then you could do a Video analysing each country's housing market). But with NZ, we have about 4 to 5 million people. Being a very large country (land area wise) and sparcely populated, generally folks own a bit of land here & there. (Not squeezed into a small New York apartment by comparison). So in fact, New Zealander's, (per head of population) actually have more wealth than a North American does. We are "richer" people on a Wealth per Person basis than Americans.
I.love your style, appreciate the honest straightforward approach. Refreshing
I appreciate that! Actually, these comments (like yours) are refreshing and I had no idea they would resonate with so many people.
My pleasure to watch AND SHARE your videos with your insights and great knowledge. Thanks a lot!
Thank you so much for your generous comment and for sharing my videos.
Have also heard the banks are not hitting their sales targets (in home loans) so have now started doing "back door deals" whereby they offer lower than offfical Interest Rates to NEW customers (not exisiting customers). Lower than the Official Cash Rate. In order to get a mortgage across the line. For instance a "cheap" house might be $400,000. If a de facto couple has a deposit of $80,000 (unlikely), then they would both need to earn $70,000 each. i.e. Combined Income of $145,000. Most folks in Invercargill earn $36,000 to $50,000. So not many folks would qualify for a $320,000 mortgage + $80k deposit = $400k house.
Always a great content! many thanks
Much appreciated!
Very informative. Thanks,
You are welcome.
Great Job as always.
Thank you.
Thank you sir! Question; there are many places to purchase precious metals. Do you have any specific suggestions or recommendations?
I prefer to buy them from brick and mortar retailers with solid reputations. Be careful of those marketing on the internet. In the last couple of years, my son Preston has gotten in the precious metals business - a brick and mortar company. I prefer not to put his contact info on the internet. If you want to connect with him, send me a text at 406-871-3321.
I feel lucky that I come across your videos.
Thanks.
You are welcome. Appreciate your generous comment.
Thank you for this, you wouldn't know how much you are helping folks with this information.
You are so welcome!
🙏🏾
Thanks for another great video. Question... Did you say I'd have to pay about $5 extra to get $21 of silver? So, $26??? Close to 25% over the price? That seems like a crazy premium to pay implying possibly a long time just to get back to even. Did I misunderstand that? Thanks!
Thank you Hal. Yes. Silver is about $21 per ounce (spot). Markup is about $5 per ounce. I know that is a lot, but that tells you how high the demand is. If we get to a barter system and silver is needed to buy what we need, it won't matter how much you paid for it. You will be glad you have it. That is how I look at it.
@@Reppondinvestments thank you. I've never been interested in any metals but you make me curious because I agree with everything else you say. It would be interesting to hear you go into more detail about silver in one of your videos. It seems like we might face hyperinflation one of these days, and perhaps there's a real possibility that the currency actually collapses. But, it's difficult for me to imagine what that would really look like. I would expect everything would collapse, there might not even be such a thing as a grocery and maybe we're just bartering with people nearby? If so, I think I'd rather have canned food and ammunition. I can't fight or hunt with silver, much less eat it, so maybe I'm missing the point. I respect your opinion, so I think you have reasons about buying silver that are flying over my head!
I like your channel mr reppond. Thanks !
You are welcome. Thanks for watching.
I look forward to your videos! Please keep em coming
Thank you. Will do.
thank you so much for your informative videos. We are truly honoured to receive such clear information. Do you have clients in Canada?
You are welcome. Unfortunately, I am not licensed to give advice or manage money in Canada. If you want a referral to someone I trust in Ontario, let me know and I will give you a referral.
However rising inflation: food, gas , etc is eating away at discretionary spending which will have a ripple effect in the economy and affects people's abilities to pay their mortgage. Especially small business owners who are dependent on elevated home prices and heloc loans. People will pull back
Well said.
Nice content To be clear, I don't expect catastrophic inflation anytime soon. But it doesn't hurt to bolster my finances ahead of uncertain economic times.
Agreed. Point well made.
If you look at a chart of household income vs median housing prices, it has pulled away from the normal trend by more than the 2007 housing bubble. If mean reversion is an eventuality, housing corrections will be significant.
That is entirely possible. I can't find any credible source that believes we are headed for a collapse like 2008 - but a correction for sure. Maybe more than a correction.
From my readings, housing market in metropolitan areas will likely to go through correction more likely than crash. However, house correction may trigger recession...
I agree.
Any chance you can start covering the health of banks and credit unions?
Thanks for the suggestion. I will cover that this week - how you can search for ratings on banks and credit unions.
I agree, an in depth review of our banks would be a topic of great interest. Let’s not forget it was the banks and investment companies which crashed and triggered the last “great” depression. Thanks for your great work Mr. Reppond !
You are welcome.
IS IT A GOOD TIME TO CASH IN A 401K AND TAKE A LOSS ON TAXES OR JUST LEAVE IT LONG TERM???
I can't give advice like this without knowing more about you, your goals and willingness to take risk. If you want to reach out to me, I will be glad to discuss with you.
Ben
406-871-3321
My understanding is that losses realized within a 401k are not reportable as losses on your Income tax forms. Only withdrawals are taxable as income for the year in which the withdrawal is made. Please correct me if that is not the case.
Henry, it is correct that losses from sale of funds within a 401k are not reportable for income tax purposes. And yes, it is correct that it is taxable when you withdraw it. However, if you withdraw funds prior to age 59 1/2, there is also a 10% penalty tax.
and why would a chief investor, probably responsible for real estate investments to begin with, be honest about a pending crash? seems like something that wouldn't fair well for him. I would trust Grantham over him
You may be correct. It seems that we are being lied to everywhere we turn. The biggest issue we have is who to trust. I cannot vouch for Blackstone's spin on this. However, it does seem to be in line with other credible sources. I REALLY wanted to find something recent from Robert Shiller because I trust him to be honest and without an agenda. However, everything I found was 1 year old or older.