Will Tesla stock STAGNATE before it EXPLODES?
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- Опубліковано 14 лип 2024
- In this video, we break down the differences between soft and hard catalysts, highlighting how each can influence Tesla's stock price, especially in the face of negative Wall Street sentiment.
Disclaimer: The content of this video is NOT investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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These TSLA videos are great
Excellent designation of hard vs. soft catalysts. Robotaxi and Optimus announcements plus continued Megapack ramping will provide a floor for the stock price (resistance level). The counter to that is the big bet on $10B's on training computers that is draining the war chest and concerning to institutional investing. Here we go.
Thank you and agreed!
You definitely deserve way more subscribers
Great points and I agree. Once there is any revenue upside to these hard catalysts and they begin to be priced in to forward earnings the chart will look like a hockey stick.
Well, that's true of any stock. NVDA didn't skyrocket based on projections. It went up because earnings quadrupled in one year.
Some day, Optimus will be the "remote control operator" 👀
💯
Clear, balanced perspective thank you!
I love your take and I agree about the difference between soft and hard catalysts. I also agree 8/8 could be a load of hype and waffle and I too will be looking for concrete progress towards an actual product.
I think in terms of "when should you invest" I think there's no right answer.
An angel investor might put money in based only on a powerpoint.
A venture capitalist might need to see a demo of a product.
A sophisticated retail investor might be ok with early stage pre-reveneue.
A more mainline retail investor might be ok with revenue but still unprofitable.
And pension funds and wealth funds wait until they can see actual profit which is stable and projectable before moving in.
Who is right? Well it's hard to say. If I ran a pension fund I'd be really conservative and invest only based on current actual profits because my main goal would be to not lose people's retirement.
And who gets the best returns? It varies. Superstar angels and VCs make crazy gains, however my guess is the actual real rate of dollar return is equal across all approaches, as that's what happens in a free market, and that the risk reward is pretty balanced.
Mostly it's about how much you want predictability vs big upside and that's a very personal thing.
And yeah I think you're completely right that understanding the mentality of these different groups is one kind of alpha where if you can get into things before the pension funds and wait for their big buy in then you can make a lot of money. If you say if FSD and optimus works the whole world will want a piece of them .... if.
Great comment. I think the different perspectives on risk is what many retail investors don’t get. We see the bright future and don’t understand why professional investors (“Wall Street”) don’t see the same.
I think you are spot on, wall street will need to see revenue coming in first, before putting any value to it from fsd/robotaxi. Still as the energy section is growing fast that might make the stock get an upgrade short term. 2025/2026 I think will have the most gains and “hard” evidence. Macro and the FED will play also in to it. Looking forward to your next video well done thank you very much!!
Important to note: "hard" catalysts force Wall Street to react. That doesn't mean a runup can't happen before on soft catalysts, but this is a function of sentiment which is very hard to predict.
I've seen all the Tesla valuation videos out there. You've done the best logical, level-headed thinking stock company performance to media/wall street cause and affect analysis I've seen. It was so helpful. I really like the short term and long term thought process and the pure reasons / why stock will have no choice but to reflect the numbers.
Excellent stock analysis; glad I found your podcast.
Great analysis. Gave me a new way to view the various catalysts that I've witnessed over the years.I thought we we would fasure see a huge move in the stock, only for it to stay flat best case or drop 3 points.
Very clear presentation. The hard catalyst versus soft catalyst was very helpful. What about a licensing contract with, let's say, Ford being a hard catalyst?
I do think the first major licensing deal is a mini-hard catalyst and could add $50+ stock price potential; but it still pales in comparison with unlocking FSD (or, much bigger even, Optimus) real-world revenue.
Thank you for the video 🙏.
Looking forward to your Optimus video.
Underrated channel.
Thank you :) we just started with Tesla videos and growing, but I am grateful for anyone sharing / telling more people about my channel :)
What a profoundly great video. Keep them coming!
Thank you, very kind of you to say and glad you liked it :)
Sadly I agree with everything you said for almost all the same reasons you stated.
I am hopeful that production surprised to the upside and margins surprise heavily to the upside this particular quarter for lots of reasons, many of which were affecting Q1 and won’t be Q2. They might not be, but I think this could give us a short term bump to 225 or so and maybe 250 if earnings are 10% above estimates (which are very pessimistic! As stated negative sentiment.)
Long term you’re right, it will be sub 300 until that first pilot city or cities are announced with a release date, as long as it’s not more than a year away date.
Subscribed! Finally a realistic take on the catalysts.
Thank you and welcome :)
Clear headed…well defined points congratulations…more please
Thank you! Coming next week!
Thanks Jo. Definitely hard catalysts would be great. Yes, worst case would be stock does nothing for 12 months, although I think this is very unlikely. Finally bought some Nvidia yesterday, in the dip. Nice to be in a stock that likes to go up instead of down all the time. It's been three years of pain in Tesla stock, but I'm hanging in there ! I'd be very happy with $300 by the end of next year. Forget all these highly speculative and optimistic price targets. Keep up the good work. All the best.
Patience might pay off. It's always risky to chase stocks at their heights... last time people got frustrated with Tesla was in 2018 and 2019, and we know what happened next - keep the eyes on the long-term price, the market can't stay irrational forever.
@@jobhakdi Thanks Jo, love it. Long term Tesla looks amazing, it's a really good idea to always remember the bigger picture and not be distracted by the short term doom mongers, as you say. Now all I need to do is follow my own advice ! Thanks for your reply.
This is actually a good thing, since we will have more time to accumulate shares until it blows up. I think they should be careful with robotaxi rollout and not rush it. As much as it will undoubtedly transform the future of transportation, any major errors and accidents that could happen would create a huge public concern amplified by media fearmongering. Even if it was statistically proven to be an order of magnitude safer than human driving, the media spotlight would be on every single mistake they make. Just remember the batteries catching fire situations (in a couple of cars) or simple solvable problems with certain cars that were blown out of proportion. I do agree that rolling out Optimus would be way easier than robotaxi, but I don't think it's close to even a percent of it's potential capabilities yet. There will probably be another hardware revision before the rollout and the software side still has long ways to go, but it is getting there. Hope we get some glimpse at the progress of that as well on 8.8.
I think the sentiment is changing because Tesla is jumping without major news.
$TSLA: 10-15x in 5 + 5x in 10 = 50-75x in 15.
Don't disagree
Yes!
hope the energy business revenues go up a lot
if they announce that Ford is licensing FSD at the next earnings call then that could push TSLA back over $200
I would like to think that 1300/wk CyberTrucks @$120k would start to hit the bottomline.
the small things (Energy, Cybertruck, Semi, new Model 3 and new Model Y) all add up to a strong tactical driver of revenue and margin. That's totally overlooked imo and a nice tailwind besides the crazy stuff (FSD and Optimus)
Great Video. Thanks
Glad you liked it!
I already own shares of TSLA, NVDA and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000 or less..
Great explanation on hard and soft catalysts. You may be right that FSD is a soft catalyst if you only consider it by itself. But when matched with CyberCab, that's when the money starts flowing. I don't think hard catalysts will start kicking in until middle to late 2025. Until then I think we are going to stay potentially as low as $150 and as high as $250 depending on the nature and optimism or lack there of concerning the soft catalysts.
Good analysis 👍
Glad you think so!
Excellent explanation. Thanks🙂.
You are welcome, thanks for watching!
what do you think of the release date of a new compensation package? prolly from 500B to 10T?
Love your video's and the way you think. There is one component in your story that i feel a different about. You said it would take years and years for the new platform to get manufactured. I am pretty confident that the new modular production lines are something special and specifically finetuned for a very fast ramp. Which is also necessary because you dont want to cannibalise on existing products. So i actually think the time between the announcement and volume production will not take that long. Not years and years at least. I am wondering what your thought proces is behind this. Maybe you are right, but in that case a discussion could be very interesting. Always open to learn. Thanks again for the vid. Loved it!
I agree with you on production, that won't be the problem. The problem with Robotaxi is to roll it out safely. This is much more complicated than just being 10x better than humans (NOT sufficient), it needs a whole operational layer that Waymo build, including geofencing imo and remote control teams. It seems they are not on this right now, and THIS will take 18 months+
@@jobhakdi That i can understand. You probably want to start in small area's with human oversight. A deadly crash in the first stages will be very bad. So I understand you need a team to transition at first and then slowly reduce the amount of oversight when the data shows its possible. Dont know about the geofencing but you might be right.
@@jobhakdi Thanks again 💪
ATH not until mid 2027.
Megapack and the energy sector main driver (sic) of stock price in 2026.
Went all-in at $148 and bought 470 shares, I keep until Musk turns 57 and I can buy 1Robot and 1Model Y with FSD for my retirement!
Do you predict a dip in stock price when the 2nd quarterly earnings comes out on 7/17?
One wonders whether Elon saw this video and postponed from 8/8 until October to speed up the hard catalysts for the Robotaxi reveal!
Imagine if all we get are soft catalysts and a recession by the end of 2025… :$
That's unlikely, but possible, which is why everyone should be cautious with placing bets on Tesla that are time-dependent
@@jobhakdi 2 days ago when I wrote that comment the stock was 10% below what it is now and I was holding off buying $1000 worth of additional shares. Now, I'm holding $3000 to purchase TSLA, wondering if it's going down again next week. Even though I know in the long-term it won't make much difference, everytime I buy I always think, if I don't buy now the price is going up and if I do the price is going down, in the short term. Although, it doesn't really matter in the long-term, when the valuation is $3000 per share etc. I generally, set a date each month when I must buy the stock, so I don't have to think about this sort of thing, or at least not let it torment me. But it still feels bad when opportunities are lost. I don't bet on TSLA, it's too volatile and unpredictable :D
ARK is not including Optimus in their valuation. If they do, then it could lead to a 30-150 trillion market cap for Tesla, depending on how much humanoid robot market share they have globally.
It's their big mistake, and they will correct it this year
When FSD is ready, it will increase revenue 10x in a short period of time, eveyone knows it so the market will discount this by increasing the stock price little by little following benchmark achievements.
Why would you know?
Thanks for clarifing hard vs soft catalists. Very valid point.
Showing a real roadmap on 8/8 on the companies short and long termstrategy would be great.
Keep on the great videos.
If FSD does a 10x (dist per disengage is the popular metric), car sales will surge. The moment smart people realise that FSD is destined for driverless, the only car to buy is an FSD car. All else is horse (or film camera, steam train, CRT TV - choose your fave disruption).
Even the dumb money follows the car sales.
I think you are overlook the demand for robotaxi by seniors.
There will be overwhelming demand for robotaxi, but rolling it out will be very difficult
"Will it stagnate" ? It's been stagnating since 2020 (lol)
Last time it stagnated over 5 years. I think this time it might be less.
It's funny when I hear people say "optimus will be able to drive your car". That would be a waste. The car is going to pick up the kids by itself. Optimus is going to be walking the dogs, grabbing beers and working the BBQ grill.
Optimus can drive a n y car.
lol Optimus will undermine the FSD advantage of Tesla but that’s ok
Ok. And the point of a human then is when your robot took everything that made you a man. A woman will stay with you why?
She can already buy replacement male parts for dollars in Amazon 😂. When you do nothing around the house you’re obsolete
My Tesla feeds had become very stagnant with only maybe seven or eight predominant players. I took someone’s advice and removed all my subscriptions, and that’s when your channel popped up. I am very glad I made that decision because I don’t think you would have come across my feed otherwise. I think you have a very realistic outlook on Tesla and what drives the stock and I am very thankful as a staunch Tesla investor to have found your channel. - Mike
Thank you Mike, I appreciate it and welcome :)
Hope to see you on brighter with Herbert someday.
I think we’re gonna need to see margins and revenue start exploding first …. Before the jump comes.
Obviously many factors. Main one being Elon. AI plays. Valuation of other companies ( works in Tesla favor ) Also bringing in revenue to even support the 600 billion valuations it already has.
Let’s admit. We’re behind on factories. Medico not even broke ground. Everyone thought we’d have 4 megapack factories by now. 4680 ramp going badly along with them saying they don’t even want to push it anymore ( last sentiment was Elon saying the goal was to reach 2 terrawatts )
And now they are doing a U turn and going full force with robotaxi and Optimus. All years away from regulations. Revenue.
On top of every company just copies Elon now. A word of advice for Tesla. Stop talking. No one would be building robots if it wasn’t for you Elon! They need to keep things under wraps better as people have wisened up and instead of playing catchup. You just copy Elon
👏👏👏👏👏
Everything you said makes sense and I agree that unless Wall Street see the money no event will have any meaningful effect. Excellent video excellent points. Would love to see you do a collaboration with cyber bulls / Herbert ONG
Good analysis. I agree about the need for hard catalysts to drive the stock. Perhaps a firm date on the production of the 25k car would be one.
Thanks Jo.
Great analysis. Tesla events are normally a bust as far as the share price goes and rightfully so. There are no hard catalysts involved in most except for new vehicle delivery events. But fanbois are going to overhype this.
Where I disagree is on Optimus. FSD is still far from L4 with billions of miles of data and tens of millions of new miles available each day. Where will the training data for Optimus come from?
Creation of training data will be BIG business in the future. Think AWS times 100.
And just as importantly, hardware for a humanoid robots still have a long way to go. They are not close to human level deftness of touch or dexterity. Warehouses could be using humanoids within 5 years but nobody is going to replace a human worker w a robot that can only perform one function. And robots would out of the gate need the ability to be instructed in natural language by a human to either stop/start/move/change what it's doing.
We will be in the experimental phase w robots for years to come. Application in warehouses will come first IMO and then LIMITED monotonous factory line work. But even these might require abilities that robots won't have for many years. If we require 6 billion miles to get FSD to L5, imagine the data required to get a robot to understand the real world, navigate it, take verbal instructions AND do something useful and w greater productivity than a human.
I fear that just like the Internet bubble expectations will get waaaaaaay ahead of reality and there will be a massive crash after the bubble. It always happens. This time won't be different.
Here’s my issue with Tesla since delivery numbers are down and we are back into the dreams and stories. Elon is like a politician, offers 10 things and delivers 1 and not completed. I will buy when the P/E goes according to the cars delivery and profit improvement, the rest for me are just stories. As of now for me fair market value 140-150 counting FSD which has been improving. For me matters facts, since I was 5 I knew Santa was just a story so don’t believe in dreams
You and all of wall street
Level-headed analysis. The remote drivers, however, are out of the question. For the vehicle to extricate itself from extreme situations FSD cannot handle, dojo-computer-centre-support should suffice. At least this is how I came to understand that. Hiring people for that kind of problem solving probably is the last thing Elon will subscribe to. He already wanted pedals and steering wheel to be removed. Depending on the speed of progress w/ FSD, any such remote steering/overruling becomes increasingly obsolete and would cost more than to continue pushing the software enhancements. So it's just the contrary - as long as there is no need for hiring remote drivers, there is likely to be sufficient progress in FSD software. Moreover, at a certain level even FSD supervised will earn some subscriptions and constitute a "hard" catalyst. Optimus has immediate impact, hard impact, once it is capable of replacing human workforce in manufacture and elsewhere. Logical next step: improving FSD for self-driving on factory premises and auto-loading on trailers and trucks.
I think RC drivers are inevitable, because even if you need it only once a day on a million cars, you need to access that one car and steer it out of whatever situation it ran into. That's why I believe there is no way round some sort of RC , same way Waymo does it, no matter how good FSD becomes. And that means (good news), you can deploy this even with FSD as it will be end of this year, because then it's a sliding scale (doesn't matter if you have 1000 interventions per 1M cars per day or 1, you need it; and then you can deploy it also at 1000 interventions, which means next year)
@@jobhakdi Once Elon commented on this. Software must be extra-smart, e.g. one Tesla car must know it cannot enter a cul-de-sac if that obstructs another Tesla vehicle already there. So communication among all cars in operation (via Starlink?) seems logical next step to reduce amount of human intervention. I'd agree there is some need for remote supervising, esp. calling emergency services for object removal.
Interesting to hear your views. I personally am extremely pessimistic about humanoid robots in general.
Why are you pessimistic? Interested in hearing your perspective.
@@jobhakdiI consider humanoid robots to be generally impractical. The humanoid robots of today look better than ever before but they are anything but a new idea.
I don’t believe the physical technology is good enough at this time to make them the type of product some are touting. The fans probably run loud, and there are a lot of intricate parts that can break. And this all ignores the integration of an AI component - which is supposed to be a big reason why these bots may be successful now when they weren’t previously. I am overall not convinced the ai integration is in fantastic shape. It seems to me more of an early work in progress. I believe robotics companies are working on improving these technologies while continuing to search for practical use cases that can achieve a profit.
My 2 cents.
Tesla stock price will dump as it becomes realized that FSD robotaxi and Optimus robots are not ready this decade.
But after the era of Tesla disappointment and despair, all the promise of robots will be fulfilled. It’s all coming in the 2030s
We all know what happens long term - the art will be to estimate (before the main stream) when the inflection happens. I believe before 2027, but let's see.
@@jobhakdi that sounds reasonable. Most of the Tesla pumpers (Elon and Ark Invest included) are setting people’s expectations for too much too soon.
If you don’t call the last 2-3 years stagnation…..
TSLA has not just stagnated, it has regressed. It got way too pushed up way too quickly because of fomo and a lot of hype. I absolutely believe in the stock and more importantly the company. But when you have a gigantic move up as quickly as it happened….. I think the stock has settled in close to its fair price if you aren’t a forward-thinking person and it is stagnated there. What will it take to move the needle again? Hopefully wall street will start looking at Tesla as more than a car company and stop worrying about automotive gross margins on a quarterly basis.
What we just saw is not a giant move up. A giant move up is at a minimum $1,000, and that can actually happen any moment. If that happens, we can see long term stagnation (2 years). Until then, there is huge upwards pressure.
Pretty sure you have already landed on mars.
;)
Consider you are one of the millions of people living in an Apartment or Condominium and have no place to plug your EV in for the night. What is better than a good quality automobile? No Automobile. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon and his crew are buying closed up shopping centers in traffic congested cities like LA, San Francisco and Seattle and turning them into Robo Taxi, charging, Car parks. Imagine waiting for your Robo taxi ride, that is cheaper and quicker then your old car. No more traffic problems because every car has multiple people. The App charges you based on length of ride and number of people in the car. Even though the Robo taxi is picking people up. The ride is still quicker then when you drove Legacy style. Robo Taxi can be underestimated if it is not appreciated.
The cheaper and quicker is questionable. We have no idea what the cost per mile will be, and it can't be quicker than having your own car. As for every car having multiple people, that is highly unlikely. The robotaxi is being designed mostly for single person travel, like a commute to work. Also, there are going to be significant logistical issues if millions of people use robotaxi. Parking lots will have to be redesigned as pickup/dropoff lanes. Otherwise there will be a massive traffic jam when hundreds of people in an office park or sports stadium are all arriving/leaving at the same time.
@@darylfoster7944 A Neill Armstrong response.
Once Robotaxi is solved, it will be an unbelievable bonanza (but much smaller than Optimus). But solving it will be HARD and take longer than people think. FSD that is 10x better than humans will be here probably end of 2024, or latest in H1 2025 - but that's NOT enough
Hasn't already stagnated for last 3 years😂
You make me laugh, FSD began 10 years ago and it remain at level 2. It appear FSD has strucked the wall unable to proceed any further. Tesla EV battery are not self made, go do some research. Tesla sale miss expectation again and again. Hate to say that Tesla going down to $20 by 2026 if Tesla cannot upgrade FSD to level 3 by end of 2024. I know the truth hurt.
FSD will see major breakthroughs in 2024, but they need the operational layer for robotaxi and don't have it yet. It's going to be messy and difficult. Optimus is much easier and MUCH bigger. Both will happen.
Good thesis, negative earnings = worried cult members. FSD is the hardest “AI + ROBOTICS“ nut to crack, good long term bet, in the meantime pure AI is a better bet.
It has stagnated, so yes. It will take a real surprise to regain credibility after the CEO spent it on “free” speech. A real income surprise, unaccompanied by the CEOs idiotic political views, would be best. But, I am losing hope for that outcome. I have been holding a large position since 2019, wish I sold it earlier.
I would refer to the previous stagnation period - it has been over a year longer than this one, and then we know what happened. I would discount politics - it's an unhealthy topic, and everyone gets to riled up - it taints our perspective on people, including Elon, because of our own preconceived notions - which means we are more likely to make mistakes that cost us money. I would ignore Elon's politics if you don't like them and focus on Tesla stock
@@jobhakdi i am, brother. Thanks.
Just buy and hold and keep DCAing until Tesla explodes to Mars and beyond. It’s that simple!!!!
That's the easy way, and it very likely will pay off. Of course, it would be even nicer to nail it on timing, but that's playing with fire.
Put all your money in it genius
Done!