Somebody should tell the Government, "Drugs don't cause addiction." Dr. Lonny Shavelson in his book "Hooked" said that 70% of female heroin addicts had been sexually abused in childhood. We are persecuting abused children. And then there is science. Addiction is a symptom of PTSD says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, "The Disordered Mind." Drugs fill receptors. What empties receptors (injury, PTSD) causes a desire for drugs. Drugs CAN'T cause addiction. Pass it on.
@@meganann3876I’m thinking that since both Biden and Trump are embroidered in scandals, what matters most is whose scandals will be top of mind when voting takes place. Right now clearly Biden’s is. But we still have several months to go, and I don’t imagine the media will keep attacking Biden if he ends up being the only choice, and they will probably play double time on Trumps scandals to make up the difference. I predict a photo finish as far as scandals are concerned.
Conservatives can't win a fair election. So. The last grasp of the republican party is a desperate grasp for unquestionable power. Trumps is everything we declared independence from.
@@rolandnelson6722 he had a choice between Gretchen Whitman of Michigan or Harris, he played the race card like the dems always do.Im loving every minute of this.
He does not think that the dementia revelation is a scandal. Even if his model is correct, he himself is in a bubble and fails to correctly apply his own theory, which requires impartiality. In fact the dementia debacle is so huge that it threw the second key, "Primary Contest", into jeopardy. The incumbency key is also in jeopardy because Trump is also a former president, for which this model has no reference point. Then there is the long term economy: inflation adjusted real growth has been zero. No real growth has occurred because it is just inflation increasing all numbers. Short-term economy might be fine or at least not in official recession. Military victory - not happening. The only possible source for military victory is Ukraine, and currently it takes a miracle for them to suddenly launch a counterattack and regain ground that they have been steadily losing. At best you can argue that it was a victory that Ukraine was not immediately conquered, and they regained some ground at one point over a year ago. Military loss: Afghanistan, if not also Ukraine, but this aspect has been overshadowed by everything else going on and is unlikely to be a major issue. Social unrest from the Israel-Gaza conflict probably does not count as sufficient social unrest to lose the key. If we really look at his model from nonpartisan point of view, Trump has secured 4 keys: Party mandate, long-term economy, scandal, incumbent charisma. He may have also secured the contest key because there is a real contest at the moment if Biden is forcefully ousted or not, and he may in fact share the incumbency key. Both military success and failure are tilted towards Trump. A pro-Trump view already puts him at 6-8 keys even if you think the relatively popular RFK does not count for the 3rd party key.
Allan Lichtman's "keys" proved not to fit any useful locks, and he now looks like a pompous idiot whose prediction of a Kamala victory was hilariously mistaken!
Sorry to mention this. The “ultimate sacrifice” is not stepping down from the presidency. Those that have made the ultimate sacrifice are no longer with us.
@@RetNavyChiefBTC I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
It is genuinaly cause for alarm that a "historian" will not recognize how "the ultimate sacrifice" is a phrase reserved for those who have given their lives for the country....
As a moderate, I feel like they’re straining the definitions of scandal and economy. I don’t know anyone besides broadcast news that says the economy is good. (It’s good for Wall Street).
@sussolus That brings up the military failure part, as well. Leaving Afghanistan was a failure, Ukraine is unpopular with right-wing voters, and Israel is unpopular with very left-wing voters. There have been no military successes.
he brushed aside inflation like it was nothing. but if voters cant pay their bills, count on regime change. people vote their pocketbooks. replace the "13 keys" with " Its the economy, stupid"
@@NiAudaxNeObstes I’m doing fine, actually. Was even better before the current administration thanks to lower taxes. The only people doing well right now are the rich, Wall Street, and politicians. Inflation is still rampant. Interest rates are high (I don’t think they are THAT high). Governments are preventing the building of homes through regulations. Cars are expensive because of the EV push causing manufacturers to switch powertrains and plans last minute, causing them to lose money and that is passed onto the consumer. Chip shortage also didn’t help and that wasn’t 100% the presidents fault. I don’t think the economy would have been MUCH different under Trump. I think, it would have been better, just slightly. No extra 2021 stimulus check. No free money through interest rates being easy. No crying about a vaccine mandate, while inflation was sky high in 2021-2022. Oil production took a hit in those years of the EV push. These are not all the presidents fault but they are not exempt from
The numbers disagree. Prices might be bad, but we are certainly not in an economic crisis, just an economic slump, and for the short-term economy key to be turned false, it has to be an ENORMOUS economic crisis.
They simply redefined "recession". In the past it meant 2 or more quarters of decline... We had that and they just said its not a recession anyway. He thinks they are turning the key, but the question is if the independents believe their new definition or not. They decide if the key gets "turned."
@@SWPOTC1298 Numbers? Just yada, yada,yada. That's just spin. What about new home buyers? or forclosures? or evictions? What about wages vs prices? what about decline of the middle class? I would agree that the "numbers" tell us the economy is OK, if you are using median statistics, but what about the mean average? If you have one person out of a hundred doing really, really well, and 99 doing poorly, your average (median) will tell you everything is fine. Like I said spin.
Do you say that every time 🍊 Dump brags about the stock market? He even said the good days for the market are because they think he'll win in November!
@@bamahama707 I would be glad to publicly debate this guy.....in this particular case of just about every single parameter being a biden disaster.....he's nuts in his analysis.
The best interest of the country is making sure it remains a constitutional republic (or representative democracy) that it was founded on! That means voting for Biden over lying trump.
Don't forget all the business that have gone under or moved out of the country. So many ways to fudge those numbers, like not counting the illegal immigrants as unemployed.
You need to address your Governor about that. Prices in my state are NOT doubled. They've increased. But they are far from doubled. It sounds like big time corruption in your state if that is true.
... and do you expect Trump to solve that problem? Wages not keeping up with inflation has been going on for decades. Neoliberal and conservative economic policies are to blame. By the way, the inflation rate has consistently dropped under Biden and real wages have increased. Inflation in the USA is better than all other G7 nations. If not for price gouging and corporate greed, the average American would be much better off.
@@thenewapelles6448 "do you expect Trump to solve that problem?" Well, yes. A major source of inflation is high energy prices, because that affects virtually everything, even fertilizer. And when it comes to price gouging corporations, who do most of them support?
@@SpringIsBACK and why are energy prices so high? Putting the blame on Biden doesn't make any sense at all. There are a number of factors that influence energy costs. The pandemic (as well as OPEC shenanigans) had a huge impact on rising energy costs. As for who corporations support, it's pretty split. Some support Trump because he promises massive corporate tax cuts and pro-business policies, while others support Biden because they believe Trump is economically illiterate (he is) and would damage the health of the market.
Joementia's only purpose is to keep Bernie Sanders out of the white house, despite being the MOST POPULAR POLITICIAN IN THE COUNTRY!!! The donors would obviously prefer a Trump presidency than Americans getting Medicare-4-All from Bernie or even worse, someone who would stop the endless wars. The CIA and the Military industrial complex would never let that happen, Bernie would be MLK'd by a "lone wolf" long before he reached the podium. The system works
Please educate yourself on what a recession is. It a simple yes or no statistic threshold. The US is statistically not in a recession - not even close.
@@chrisak49 Is that "educate yourself" fueled by your dependency of the Biden administration to tell you what their definition of a recession is for the day?
Technically it isn't, but which Americans THINK that the economic matters are going well? This is what matters during the election, not statistics, which we all know aren't exactly reliable when politicians use them.
This guy pretty much just said the economy isn't bad. There's homeless people everywhere. These people live in a bubble. They don't live paycheck to paycheck.
Economically, the country has been much better than most other countries' recovery if you look at the fundamentals. You could argue that the economy isn't working for the average person and I'd agree but that's not what the fundamentals care about.
@@Leftistattheparty People don't care about the spin put on things. They care about the price of groceries, fuel, homes, ect. Everything is worse under this corrupt administration.
@@Leftistattheparty Then your fundamentals, by definition, are worthless misleaders to the majority of people living in the United States. No one cares that Wal-Mart tripled in size or whatever if all that money went into one rich guy's savings account and functionally disappeared from economic circulation.
Definitely not especially where regardless of what Biden does they win two keys or they lose two Like like if Biden steps out, they lose two keys but also if Biden steps out, they don’t lose two keys Also, you have to remember that Donald Trump had the biggest loss in history and most people didn’t like Joe Biden. They just voted for him because they knew Donald Trump is way. Worse way way worse I’ll take literally a guy that can’t do anything over Donald Trump.
Plus they mis-characterize several of them. They claim Trump only has a narrow appeal to his base, whereas Trump got 71 million votes last election and packs in 50 and 60K audiences every day at rallies. Also they claim there is no scandal in this election. Which means they are either lying dog faced pony soldiers, or have not watched Biden walking around like a zombie for months.
It doesnt matter if they are calling it a recession, its how does the average american "feel" about the economy, and its pretty clear that inflation has eroded any growth they want to flaunt. Only a small percentage of people felt that growth, credit card debt is at an all time high and the government's highest expense is now interest on the debt
The Dems should have looked for another candidate a year ago. It is a disgrace that there is no one else to lead that party. Why the push for an older person who clearly is suffering from cognitive decline? Whats the agenda? Any American with an older relative can see the signs.
Blame the electoral college, since Biden is still the best possible Democrat to win it (since his moderate record means right leaning independents will most likely vote for him). What about the Republicans who chose an egotistical conman and wannabe dictator (who already lost once), as their nominee. You can’t even blame the electoral college for trump being chosen again.
Because their party only has two real options- aging neoliberals just as bad as Biden or Hilary, or young psychotic progressives so far left they probably screech when their blinkers signal right. There was a chance for people like Tulsi Gabbard, and Democrats did everything they could to shut her down with all the force they could muster... which is par for the course, seeing as the Democratic Party is as democratic as french fries are French.
"The Dems should have looked for another candidate a year ago. It is a disgrace that there is no one else to lead that party." - methinks that they already have someone to replace Joe. They just had to show the country that Joe is not up to the task on debate night. That way, when they shove in their unvetted pick, no one will raise a fuss.
@@dawnnadal6512 the agenda is to win over right leaning independent votes, which are crucial to winning the electoral college votes against trump. Can you name a prominent Democrat that can accomplish this better than Biden?
Biden doesn't have to make it through 4 more years, he just has to win the election. Kamala Harris can't win. If you think that she would be a good president, then let Joe Biden win, then if something happens to him, Harris can take over.
Well they have made trump take multiple cognitive tests. And after those tests he said he "aced" them. You don't "ace" a cognitive test. So trump already has that against him.
Read the transcript of Biden’s debate vs Trump. Trump’s father is the one that suffered from dementia and Trump’s arguments or talking points make zero sense.
Exactly. The hole in Lichtman's reasoning is that he is looking at the debate as a self-contained event, rather than something that could affect how one of his other "keys" turns out.
Economy is not a check mark for this administration...trust me. Most American families are struggling to afford groceries and insurance. There's no way that's a strong point for the Biden White House.
He talks about that elsewhere. Because as horribly as the withdraw went - getting us out of that war is what the american people wanted Or did you want to stay and fight another ten years?
@@writingref Most of the people commenting are not American. Their comments are driven by envy and resentment of American power, so no matter what the US does, it will receive criticism. Afghanistan is the perfect example. Stay and we're damned, leave and we're damned. Biden made the right choice, it's the Middle East where he screwed up.
@@writingref I think losing a war would be a major military failure. We're still talking about the Vietnam failure even though most Americans wanted to leave that war, too. Leaving a war after winning it and a half assed pullout that wipes out all progress in the last decade-plus is not a good look.
@@gameragodzilla did we lose? Or did we give afghanistan 20 years of freedom and then have to leave? Our failure was not uniting the people against tyranny, but instead we allowed them to rely on us for protection Meanwhile, in iraq - we taught them To defend their freedom. It depends on if people see it like me, or if they see it as a lost war
He doesn't consider the fact that we've never had a presidential candidate that has an obvious-to-everyone mental decline. The media can try to spin it any way they want, you can't dispute what we see with our own eyes.
@@RichD2024 The media is the one who spins the idea that Biden has mental problems for ratings 😂😂. Trump literally even said this himself it’s all about ratings for the media. People think over the leftist media is twisting things for Biden when they’re the ones pushing the idea that he has dementia because There honestly border by in like Biden is not a fun president like Trump who you can write an article and get clicks on every week multiple times a week. I have literally seen Fox News crop a video of Biden talking to someone to make it look like he’s talking to nobody. Also I don’t know if we all just have collective amnesia but the media was doing the same thing to trump when he ran the first time and Trump still was elected. Do you say this is the first time in history that a presidential candidate has shown that they might have mental decline is just not true at all. This is why people really need to study history more because like we are constantly just being lied to because for some reason the collective public can only remember like three years in the past tops.
@@pax6833 Reagan could still put together a coherent sentence and FDR's disability had nothing to do with his mind. The Biden situation is unique and you know it.
Lichtman’s model is a victim of its own success. Many keys monitor side effects of stable governance (incumbency, no primary challenge etc) rather than stable governance itself. The party suppressing potential primary challengers only delayed the exposure of Biden’s weak position rather than strengthening it. Being an incumbent will only help if the incumbent is seen to lead etc. making decisions based on the variables of a predictive model is a bad idea.
Mr. Lichtman's 13 keys do not include any criteria related to the mental health, cognitive abilities, or psychological fitness of the president. It focuses on objective factors: incumbency, economic performance, social unrest, scandal, and foreign/military successes or failures. Voter behavior is influenced significantly by subjective perceptions, emotions, and personal beliefs. How voters feel about a candidate's mental capacity can be as influential as objective economic or political conditions. This undermines the model's 'gladiator thumbs up/down' rating because it really needs a zero-sum game approach where negative cognitive perceptions detract from the objective factors.
@@AwkwardTruths because mental health is irrelevant to the facts on the ground around policy and it isnt even remotely clear if biden has mental problems to the degree that anyone cares enough to vote for trump. I'm voting biden dead or Alive because I vote for hid cabinet not just him
@@AwkwardTruthsMaybe you should come forward with an even more accurate model than his then? Until then, talk is cheap. His model has still been the best in this business so far.
@@leslovesliberty1776 You haven't been watching his latest public appearances. I would also take Biden as a vegetable over traitor , adulterer and fraudster Trump.
My issue is that the 13 key system was designed decades ago. The way people consume information now is so vastly different, that many of the facets are completely turned on their head.
At last, a negative comment that doesn't simply say that the keys are dumb. But in what way does the consumption of information change the keys? For example, are you saying that the charisma key no longer functions because we are so siloed in our media consumption that even an FDR wouldn't have any appeal across the political divide?
ikr - this guy talking without an ounce of humility about how a reductive formula tells him the future sounds like a typical sleepwalking expert hack at this point - he also sounds like a Dem lol
@@rumination2399 he sounds like a dem how exactly? I would also have a lot of confidence in something that has correctly forecasted every election since the ‘80s, save for the one election that came down to one state and was shady af anyway.
@@genepoole1771 my comment was more related to the fact that validity and understanding of most of the issues has been skewed by our current mess of disinformation/misinformation. People are also so beholden to their political identities that they aren't open to information when it contradicts their beliefs.
Suggesting a sitting president to step down to boost the VP's chances based on a metric is so farcical, ignores the whole underlying notion of stability that the metrics seem to stem from, and just seems like ivory tower thinking?
Other civilized countries allow campaigns to last no more than a few months. America lets them go for years costing hundreds of millions of dollars, mostly dark money.
If Biden stays in the running, on election day, Trump will win by an enormous landslide vote. If it's Kamala who's running, Trump will--for the first time in American history--unanimously win both the popular vote and the Electoral College votes. (The whole world despises this cackling witch.) For the first time ever, the USA map will be solid red and the Dems will, at last, have received their come-uppance. (I'm loving the way this election is turning out. It appears WHATEVER the Dems do now, they're simply going to lose. LONG OVERDUE.
Making Biden the candidate and Kamala Harris VP inherently ran this risk. They got 4 years out of it despite Biden being senile and possibly having dementia, and apparently no one likes Kamala
@@The101damnations I went to college. 😂 He’s using the fact that most presidents using the fact that most president win 2nd term unless there they get impeached. We’ve also flipped from democrats to republicans after every administration since H W Bush. The 13 keys are all nonsense and he will be wrong if Biden stays in.
We are in completely uncharted, unprecedented times. Some stupid checklist should not be determining whether Biden stays in or drops out… That’s about as scientific as a Buzzfeed quiz.
EXACTLY! As if Biden standing down now and handing the presidendy to Kamala weeks prior to the convention, would somehow signal stability?! The "incumbency key" is clearly not designed to represent that unprecedented and politically disastrous scenario.
Contrary to your fatalistic assessment, the economy isn’t a disaster. It isn’t best economy (due to inflation as a result of a bungled COVID response) but things are looking much better than this time 4-years ago when we were wondering if we’re getting strapped to a ventilator or not!
Inflation has been cumulative 20%. Wage growth is outpacing inflation. Stock market at an all time high. Job growth at an all time high. You aren’t trying.
this is the most stupid explaination I have ever seen. Short term economy is a success? This is a big slap to the many americans suffering cause of this unforeseen inflation.
Funny that the Americans suffering economically voted against a red wave in 2022. Maybe they don't care or the economy isn't as bad for them as you think it is
yes age is a factor although joe is unwell, brain surgery, lung clots, poor physical shape, anyorysms, dementia, pooping pants, , he is sick and his disease is progressing! I know many people over 80 that shine, are sharp Joe is excluded, don't judge every older person by this mans short comings, he had many of them as a senator
It does though. Reagan went through mental decline yet he won in the biggest landslide in election history because he had a very strong grasp of the keys.
Have you not seen clips of Trump when he talks about running against Obama, the threat of WWII, Nikki Halley in charge of White House security, his talk about sharks and batteries, Hannibal Lecter and other fanciful tales, bragging about his relationships with leaders known to murder their political rivals and on and on? That isn’t mental decline?
Yeah, it is stupid. He made his 'keys' as a model to predict reality. But now he is advising Democrats to game his model, as if reality will then bend to fit the model. It is really strange for a scientist to even suggest this. This isn't a video game. There isn't an actual real life algorithm that checks these keys. You Lichtman made up these keys. They only exist in your hear. It may be a good model, but cheating to game the model doesn't work.
Just because they’re is inflation does not mean it’s a bad economy. Wages are up. But these grocery store chains are price gouging. it is corporate inflation at this point
The US right now had an economic rebound faster and stronger than anywhere on earth. Idk what you guys expect especially since the last admin caused the current inflation issues in this country due to all those stimulus packages Congress approved under Trump.
@rositatan5325 The problem with your argument is simply that you are wrong. But that's not all !!! You probably think you're not just clever, but actually correct. So just know that you're not fooling anyone but yourself and maybe like-minded ignoramuses.
@@salj.5459 The system is quite subjective, and might as well be random in predicting the popular vote- back when he was still trying. 9 of the last 10 elections were also predicted by opinion poll- that track record is not impressive.
Lichtman is missing some keys because THEY NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in his historical dataset. This would include a Trump-descriptive key AND an age debility key. Lichtman has to be missing some of his own marbles or be in denial to not see that.
This guy it’s so wacky he went on with Chris Cuomo and tried to convince us that Biden debate performance was only a one off and that he’s never performed like that before.
Chris Cuomo wasn’t talking about debates he was telling him that that’s who’s Biden is in general a poor communicator and it’s suffering from some kind of mental decline and he kept trying to say that’s not true that Biden’s totally fine. No one believes that not even democrats.
@@spacetoast7783I think this guy means that Biden have display his cognitive decline/age so many times. From shaking hand with thin air, to getting lost on stage to claiming to talk to dead. He lies a lot too. Who can forget the corn pops story but the worse is when he say his uncle was shot down and eaten by cannibals. 😅😅😅
@@phiksit no no. We have real inflation. Inflation is caused by printing money by the GOVT. Not price gouging by companies. Only the govt creates inflation. Period. Get the facts straight prior to speaking on it.
We are in a recession and the Democrats are in denial. Sahm rule is now in effect per economists. Incumbents do not get re-elected in a recession. This indicator is a better and more reliable basis than his model.
Good, its time for the democrats to truly fight for democracy and let the voters decide. We've seen 4 years of trump and 4 of biden. The polls look the way they do for a reason.
@@neverbackdown1918 And there would've been a bill that passed had the Republicans voted in favor of it. Everything they wanted and fought for was in the bill. But because Trump said don't vote for it, they gave in and it never passed. 🙄
There is nothing shameful in getting old. Aging out is not a crime, it is not a sin. It is the course of nature. We'll all go though it if we are lucky enough. I am not backing up the idea that president BIDEN should stay in the race, I am just saying that cannot be considered a scandal. If you call that a sandal, that would greatly decrease the base essence of the word per se. A scandal is something that's supposed to be shamefully outrageous in society when it comes into broad light. Didn't everyone already know that everyone will get old some day and that the president is over 80 years old??? That's hardly surprising...
You think *this* is a "scandal"? That's cute. The Lewinsky Affair or Iran-Contra were *real* scandals. Don't criticize something you haven't read, he wrote a whole book explaining what he meant by each point
@@2Bluzin The basket of good has always been changed to make inflation disappear, whenever it was needed. It is a joke. You only need to go to Mc Donald's and fuel up your car to know that life in any practical sense has become a lot more expensive. People do not need a university clown with a party affiliation to explain inflaition away with some arbitrary change to the selection of relevant goods. If you want to believe it, be my guest...
@@SO-SOgood Who are you to determine that a person has mental health problems? Biden gave good answers- much better than Trump, but he was sick. All Trump did was LIE, which is what he usually does.
It's fun how you can make up a term and then just say it at literally any time. Does TDS mean any time anyone from the other side says anything at all?
He should say, “it’s for the good of the country.” Yeah, that might’ve worked if there hadn’t been a massive cover up by the party, and media. The voters don’t trust them. The economy is in their favour? People can’t fill up their cars or afford groceries. What part of in favour, is that?
Lol He's been correct 90% of the time in the last 10 elections, and the only one he lost was when the Supreme Court intervened and gave an election to Bush. Not to mention, he ran it back 100 years and it was STILL 90% accurate. Which means, he also predicted Trump would win in 2016. This must be why so many conservatives completely denounce science, objectivity, truth, facts, etc... He uses an OBJECTIVE model. And he is the most accurate at predicting elections. People in the sciences (myself included) understand how to separate our personal biases and objective experimentation, theorizing, etc...
Corporate owned media needs to talk about Trump's lies (from the debate) as much as they talk about Biden's performance. (How about fact checking Trump's lies?)
@@tamsinlewis5161politicians lying is normal, politicians having dementia is not. Sorry, if this bothers you. Biden also lies, Bush committed a genocide based on a lie.
@@Kosovar_Chicken I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
Or because there isn't? There's inflation, but there's also GDP growth, so there isn't a recession, by definition. I'm not saying that we should *only* consider recession, because inflation is hurting people regardless.
@@fitforfreelance To be sure, there are significant problems affecting the American economy, but they mainly arise from structural issues. We've had 4+ decades where worker wages did not keep up with economic growth, and it was only the relatively low inflation that made that work. Well, the party's over. The issue that economists have been warning about is here. And it hurts.
This won't age well. He left out the incumbent is senile key. (No, @lilemont9302, Biden being senile is a not the same thing as just lacking charisma.)
And the wannabe dictator with a lot of criminal suits stacking up on him with allocations of misconduct toward women. Biden with a competent staff doesn't seem so bad to me.
@@Mercurial_Phoenix Also, let's not forget the times he's confused roles and events, such as saying that he will defeat Obama or Hilary, the frequent non sequiturs where his train of thought has derailed and he's started mumbling briefly and then changed the subject to something unrelated. If you're not seeing the footage then you're getting your news from Fox or similar who are editing it out. Google it.
Yes. A kind of magical thinking belief system. Notice how he's pretending it's objective by claiming there is some objective True/False. Yet his own definition is just Scandal? Charisma? as if those are objective. AFAIK FDR wasn't known to be universally charismatic. But he had good policy ideas: save capitalism by keeping the masses from revolting by buying them off with socialism lite.
2020 was as unusual... or nearly as 2024 is turning out to be. And if it wasn't for covid , I almost 100 percent guarantee Trump would have been re elected
@@muzzcovw7674 I guarantee it 100%. If it weren’t for covid the democrats would have had to follow election laws and wouldn’t have been able to cheat as they did. And as their states made them revert to the old election laws….
The point he is making is that his popularity isn’t enough to grant him the charisma key. To qualify for the charisma key you have to dominate the popular vote hence why only candidates such as FDR, Reagan, and Obama in 08’ were able to secure that key. You got to listen carefully to what he is saying.
@@Rainy_Day12234 It doesn't matter. You can't qualify for the charisma key and lose the popular vote in both of your elections. Trump is not popular at the level of FDR, Reagan etc.
yes also if they skip Biden and not choose Harris they look bad because they passed over a black female candidate😂 A group of Democrat voters might not like that. Theyre stuck. Either way they loose
Neither is competent. The democrats knew this when they nominated them in 2020. They choose Biden because they understood who and what he is and that he is for sale. That he can be used effectively to implement their radical, irrational agenda if he gets something in return. Now the chickens have come home to roost.
People were saying how deluded he was to predict trump for the White House in 2016 and yet he got it right and he's been right for the past 10 elections up to now. To give you probabilistic numbers on his chances for him to be right every single time for the past 10 elections, it is a 1 in 1024 chance. Or in other terms a 0.0009766% chance which is very low. If you actually go in more in depth in his system, he's a historian who has based his system on all the other elections since George Washington and combined this history with a Russian earthquake physicist who studies patterns to predict earthquakes. They've came up with this model based on pattern recognition of all the other elections and I rather trust this guy's track record and history then your politically partisan opinion.
Then you would need Key 15: Is the challengers Brain not working or is he known to lie more often than speak the truth. Come on, he has a good system with a good track record. If you want Trump to win and you think Biden has dementia, should you not tone it down so Biden stays the candidate to make it easier for Trump? And If you want to avoid Trump, your brain might be working enough to see that if you re-watch the full debate, you will note that Biden is old, but does not have dementia, and if those keys work, you should tone it down to avoid flipping the "Party in disarray" or what was it named key? So no matter where you stand. Stop this useless debate, its just noise that distracts from the real questions. Maybe stop gibing attention to this obvious ad hominem and debate the policy proposals: Would you like four more years of Bidenomics and international respect by US allies, or do you prefer Project 2025 and a King?
In addition to correctly predicting that an egregious current candidate would not win, the keys have formerly been tested under "normal" conditions (youngish, healthy, compos mentis candidates with rational "operating systems"). Despite Lichtman's enormous confidence in himself, this bilateral fiasco is far from normal.
@@antoniopizarro7670 "Fitness for office" is the 14th key --- covered prophetically by the 25th Amendment. "Fiasco" is simply a descriptor of the current dilemma of two who are unfit in different abnormal ways.
The keys have been tested even with old people like Reagan, where similar concerns existed. I admit, not even close to the scale of today, but there is precedent. It might be worth adding it as another key, but so far, Americans seem to (begrudingly) be just fine with octogenerians in the Oval Office- so maybe the 'charismatic incumbent' key suffices, deemed false this time.
@@lilemont9302 You're right, there's no precedent. Reagan (81-1-20 to 89-1-20) was 74 at the beginning of his second term. He announced his Alzheimer's diagnosis on 94-11-5. So, still a comparatively normal situation. In addition, Reagan was not clearly suffering Parkinson's OR twice impeached, a convicted felon (etc), a fan of the USSR's and North Korea's dictators, and was not widely recognized as "cluster B". This is an alarming dilemma.
@MayaWaters12It is perhaps neither. Apparently you and most here do not listen to Dr. John Gartiner's pod where an M.D. he had on explained that, given his buoyant rally the next day after the debate and the 18 rallies Biden has had since then, that it would be virtually impossible for someone with dementia to recover the very next day to that extent AND it is undeterminated whether Biden has Parkinson's or not, HOWEVER Parkinson's is a very slow progressing disease. One only has to look at how long it took Parkinson's advocate Michael J. Fox's to advance. He was acting for years after his diagnosis and, as a performer myself, let me tell you the average time on set is a 12 hour day.
Haven't been able to get all the way to the end of this paid commercial - but does this historian mention Edith Bolling Galt Wilson? She was unelected president from the moment Woodrow Wilson had a stroke until the end of his presidency. She once allowed a small delegation of three senators to look in and see if he is still alive. Otherwise everything had to go through her. And people were too "sensitive" to push harder.
@@mariana3393What about Trump saying he defeated Obama? What about Trump saying we are going to fight world war 2? What about Trump not knowing where he was in Iowa? What about Trump saying Nicky Haley was Nancy Pelosi? What about Trump incessantly lying?
That's exactly why this is all happening. None of this is new with Biden. They are changing their tune now because they are losing, and they don't have any good policies to highlight.
@@gregoryturk1275 Big time lie, and you know it! Inflation does not grow the economy other than big companies... not at the level where it matters... The Home! Just walk into any grocery store, etc... and listen to people complaining how they are now having to buy the cheapest Ketchup they can or Mayo! yes... Condiments are a key to the economy! You'll find the cheaper items out of stock but the more expensive items are always in stock! Where are you living?
@@TheJoeschmoe777 There is no such thing as the popular vote. Our president is elected by the electoral college, the electors from each of the states. "Popular vote" is just a media distraction that makes some people feel better when their candidate loses. Until the last few elections nobody ever talked about "popular vote" because it wasn't a thing. It's irrelevant to electing POTUS and the down ballot races.
Are objective measurements *really* more significant than public opinion? If enough voters *think* that there is a scandal or a bad economy, would that not influence the outcome of the election regardless?
Not only that but NBER might not the best way to gauge a recession, as consumer sentiment is that we are a recession regardless of what GDP numbers say.
@@hubblebublumbubwub5215The scandal is covering up Bidens mental decline. The reason it sticks is because both dems and republicans are believing it. Its bipartisan
Joe Biden is of good character and has never been tied to any scandals despite over 50 years in public service. Right wing manufactured "scandals" don't count.
@@MrSkyboy997 Ukraine, Afghanistan, Business with Hunter, 12 million Illegal Aliens invited in. 18% inflation. ALL of those are scandals, as I see them. Things that should NEVER have happened.
Biden tells Democrats he is ‘Running this race to the end:’ on.wsj.com/3LfORbj
Somebody should tell the Government, "Drugs don't cause addiction." Dr. Lonny Shavelson in his book "Hooked" said that 70% of female heroin addicts had been sexually abused in childhood. We are persecuting abused children. And then there is science. Addiction is a symptom of PTSD says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, "The Disordered Mind." Drugs fill receptors. What empties receptors (injury, PTSD) causes a desire for drugs. Drugs CAN'T cause addiction. Pass it on.
A vote for trump is a vote for a literal aspiring dictator.
to whatever end, where "whatever" is as clear as water from a mountain stream.
@@heetheet75 and a vote for Joe is really a vote for Jill and Hunter, it seems.
Good to hear!
Covering up cognitive deterioration isn't a scandal?
@@meganann3876trump doesn’t have cognitive decline like Biden. Trump’s mannerisms and way of speaking is just simple, and a bit child like.
why hide it -- the media who is owned by the 1% spin it so those who saw and heard was told that wasn't what they saw -- gaslighted.
@@meganann3876 let's not act like children.
@@meganann3876I’m thinking that since both Biden and Trump are embroidered in scandals, what matters most is whose scandals will be top of mind when voting takes place. Right now clearly Biden’s is. But we still have several months to go, and I don’t imagine the media will keep attacking Biden if he ends up being the only choice, and they will probably play double time on Trumps scandals to make up the difference. I predict a photo finish as far as scandals are concerned.
No 34 felonies is
Thr democrats had 8 yrs since 2016 to remake the Party..they all slept .
Conservatives can't win a fair election. So. The last grasp of the republican party is a desperate grasp for unquestionable power.
Trumps is everything we declared independence from.
That is a fact. They just stuck with the old horses.
They bathed in DEI glory.
Now drowning.
Blame Obama
@@rolandnelson6722 he had a choice between Gretchen Whitman of Michigan or Harris, he played the race card like the dems always do.Im loving every minute of this.
This guy literally said the debate won’t effect Biden just 5 days ago!
That still could be true. Hatred of Trump is so vile with some that they would vote for an inanimate object over Trump.
@@alanmcnew5376oh yeah cause the Left is fully anti-semitic now. I’m connecting the dots 😂
He does not think that the dementia revelation is a scandal. Even if his model is correct, he himself is in a bubble and fails to correctly apply his own theory, which requires impartiality. In fact the dementia debacle is so huge that it threw the second key, "Primary Contest", into jeopardy. The incumbency key is also in jeopardy because Trump is also a former president, for which this model has no reference point.
Then there is the long term economy: inflation adjusted real growth has been zero. No real growth has occurred because it is just inflation increasing all numbers. Short-term economy might be fine or at least not in official recession.
Military victory - not happening. The only possible source for military victory is Ukraine, and currently it takes a miracle for them to suddenly launch a counterattack and regain ground that they have been steadily losing. At best you can argue that it was a victory that Ukraine was not immediately conquered, and they regained some ground at one point over a year ago. Military loss: Afghanistan, if not also Ukraine, but this aspect has been overshadowed by everything else going on and is unlikely to be a major issue. Social unrest from the Israel-Gaza conflict probably does not count as sufficient social unrest to lose the key.
If we really look at his model from nonpartisan point of view, Trump has secured 4 keys: Party mandate, long-term economy, scandal, incumbent charisma. He may have also secured the contest key because there is a real contest at the moment if Biden is forcefully ousted or not, and he may in fact share the incumbency key. Both military success and failure are tilted towards Trump. A pro-Trump view already puts him at 6-8 keys even if you think the relatively popular RFK does not count for the 3rd party key.
That's somehow true still. The debate was just more proof of what everyone already knew
the debate pretty much decided this election
Who's here after biden dropped out?
Incumbency key is lost, and contest key is not yet determined
I hope Kamala wins big and we can finally forget this quack
Allan Lichtman's "keys" proved not to fit any useful locks, and he now looks like a pompous idiot whose prediction of a Kamala victory was hilariously mistaken!
Sorry to mention this. The “ultimate sacrifice” is not stepping down from the presidency. Those that have made the ultimate sacrifice are no longer with us.
FDR was voted in while having a similar mental capacity as biden so why not try
@@RetNavyChiefBTC I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
It is genuinaly cause for alarm that a "historian" will not recognize how "the ultimate sacrifice" is a phrase reserved for those who have given their lives for the country....
Trump is a patriot
@@vitesse_arnhemHahaha. Yeah, he ran from service. And he will run from serving time (again). That's darn patriotic.
If Harris runs she would lose
She is hoping Biden resigns so she could be President for a few months even if she loses to Trump.
Biden is losing already
She’s got a better shot than Biden if he can’t campaign effectively and.. it sure seems like he can’t
@@cevcena6692the left is taking the L this Nov no matter what they do. This debate showed everyone how bad they been covering for em.
@@cevcena6692they are taking the L no matter what. The debate showed they been running cover for years.
As a moderate, I feel like they’re straining the definitions of scandal and economy. I don’t know anyone besides broadcast news that says the economy is good. (It’s good for Wall Street).
being complicit in an internationally recognized genocide could be considered a scandal
@sussolus That brings up the military failure part, as well. Leaving Afghanistan was a failure, Ukraine is unpopular with right-wing voters, and Israel is unpopular with very left-wing voters. There have been no military successes.
he brushed aside inflation like it was nothing. but if voters cant pay their
bills, count on regime change. people vote their pocketbooks.
replace the "13 keys" with " Its the economy, stupid"
It's not even good for Wall Street. A few tech giants are the only ones raising the market indices.
This was my thoughts exactly. I also consider myself a moderate. Facts are facts no matter which side likes or doesn't like them.
Short term economy is wrecked. Put all the lipstick on it you want. Groceries litterally doubled as have housing
Think about it, democrats say inflation is 3%!! Social security is suppose to be increased by 2 1/2 !
Everything has gone up under this corrupt administration.
No.
Inflation under Biden was about 20% overall.
Don’t exaggerate.
That is what will cause Brandon to fail. People vote with their wallets, right? Mine is 30% more empty over the past presidency than the previous one.
@@NiAudaxNeObstes I’m doing fine, actually. Was even better before the current administration thanks to lower taxes.
The only people doing well right now are the rich, Wall Street, and politicians. Inflation is still rampant. Interest rates are high (I don’t think they are THAT high). Governments are preventing the building of homes through regulations. Cars are expensive because of the EV push causing manufacturers to switch powertrains and plans last minute, causing them to lose money and that is passed onto the consumer. Chip shortage also didn’t help and that wasn’t 100% the presidents fault.
I don’t think the economy would have been MUCH different under Trump. I think, it would have been better, just slightly.
No extra 2021 stimulus check. No free money through interest rates being easy. No crying about a vaccine mandate, while inflation was sky high in 2021-2022. Oil production took a hit in those years of the EV push.
These are not all the presidents fault but they are not exempt from
How can anyone say economy in short term is not a problem?! He must have a deep pocket!
The numbers disagree. Prices might be bad, but we are certainly not in an economic crisis, just an economic slump, and for the short-term economy key to be turned false, it has to be an ENORMOUS economic crisis.
Lichtman says that he ignores public perception of the economy, and instead looks at the statistics.
They simply redefined "recession". In the past it meant 2 or more quarters of decline... We had that and they just said its not a recession anyway. He thinks they are turning the key, but the question is if the independents believe their new definition or not. They decide if the key gets "turned."
@@lilemont9302Yes and the statistics lie about recessions in order to prevent them. Pick up an economics book😂
@@SWPOTC1298 Numbers? Just yada, yada,yada. That's just spin. What about new home buyers? or forclosures? or evictions? What about wages vs prices? what about decline of the middle class? I would agree that the "numbers" tell us the economy is OK, if you are using median statistics, but what about the mean average? If you have one person out of a hundred doing really, really well, and 99 doing poorly, your average (median) will tell you everything is fine. Like I said spin.
The economy for the average American is awful.
This is not about Wall Street
Indeed. Any consideration of the public's view of the economy would show inflation being a major problem.
Oy vey
@@DavidGarcia-kw4sf The president is responsible for world-wide inflation? USA is #3 lowest inflation worldwide.
Do you say that every time 🍊 Dump brags about the stock market? He even said the good days for the market are because they think he'll win in November!
Good reason not to vote for Trump. He promised the fat cats he'd take good care of them (just as he did last time)
Well if there's anyone I'd ask about Joe Biden, it's a historian
Especially one who works for a member of the MSM...
funny I get your joke hahaha
@coinrush1 under-rated comment 😂
😂
@@bamahama707 I would be glad to publicly debate this guy.....in this particular case of just about every single parameter being a biden disaster.....he's nuts in his analysis.
It isn't about helping the democrats, pal. It's about doing what's in the best interests of the country.
'In no way is trump in the best interests of this country.
The best interest of the country is making sure it remains a constitutional republic (or representative democracy) that it was founded on! That means voting for Biden over lying trump.
In no way is Biden in the best interests of this country.
But no one seems to care about that anymore. It's all about me and what I can get.
Neither candidate are in the best interests of the country
unemployment means nothing when being employed means barely surviving.
There is always someone will struggle.
The question is not absolute improovement, but comparative. For example with inflation in 2022.
MA GA
Also they only ever count those on unemployment. If you no longer get unemployment even if you dont have a job your not counted as unemployed.
@amymarie1298What you really want is Communism.
@@Scaashthe Europeans imprisoned under Socialism don't know what their missing. Where are all the refugees?
This guy is too tied to his formula. What we are seeing is unprecedented.
Agreed!
my guy, his formula works.
Are you crazy do you like democracy or a dictator do like to vote @georgelapointe52
The man predicted Trump would win in 2016; I think he's earned consideration.
@@whateverman2674 Not according to other experts. Look up what Nate Silver says.
this is like the political version of astrology
nope. its based on history.
@@dcrcortno it’s not. He’s been modifying his key BS since 2000 every time he’s been wrong. Look it up.
Muh history interpretations only work if you’re objective.
@@dcrcort lol not at all.
@@dcrcort it is not. This is pseudo-analysis. It's a "model" that can be tweak to prove whatever one wants.
Unemployment is low because everyone has to work two jobs and still can't afford basics.
That's false. Your emotions not reality.
Good point..
What are you even talking about
Don't forget all the business that have gone under or moved out of the country. So many ways to fudge those numbers, like not counting the illegal immigrants as unemployed.
So there is that
We're not in a recession, it's just that a week's groceries cost double what they did in 2019 and there's been no real increase in wages to match that
You need to address your Governor about that. Prices in my state are NOT doubled. They've increased. But they are far from doubled. It sounds like big time corruption in your state if that is true.
... and do you expect Trump to solve that problem? Wages not keeping up with inflation has been going on for decades. Neoliberal and conservative economic policies are to blame.
By the way, the inflation rate has consistently dropped under Biden and real wages have increased. Inflation in the USA is better than all other G7 nations. If not for price gouging and corporate greed, the average American would be much better off.
@@thenewapelles6448 Trump MANHANDLED the Fed that actually controls prices. So yeah, Trump would fix inflation by making the Fed his b----
@@thenewapelles6448 "do you expect Trump to solve that problem?" Well, yes. A major source of inflation is high energy prices, because that affects virtually everything, even fertilizer.
And when it comes to price gouging corporations, who do most of them support?
@@SpringIsBACK and why are energy prices so high? Putting the blame on Biden doesn't make any sense at all. There are a number of factors that influence energy costs. The pandemic (as well as OPEC shenanigans) had a huge impact on rising energy costs.
As for who corporations support, it's pretty split. Some support Trump because he promises massive corporate tax cuts and pro-business policies, while others support Biden because they believe Trump is economically illiterate (he is) and would damage the health of the market.
Maybe the democratic party should have a democratic process for choosing their candidate instead of forcing their guy in.
Maybe they did...
@@heavyhauler426 Not where I live.
Naw they stole it from Bernie in 2016 and here we are@heavyhauler426
Joementia's only purpose is to keep Bernie Sanders out of the white house, despite being the MOST POPULAR POLITICIAN IN THE COUNTRY!!! The donors would obviously prefer a Trump presidency than Americans getting Medicare-4-All from Bernie or even worse, someone who would stop the endless wars. The CIA and the Military industrial complex would never let that happen, Bernie would be MLK'd by a "lone wolf" long before he reached the podium.
The system works
derp
When you have to do "technically its not yet a recession", it is pretty bleak in eyes of general citizens.
Donald Trump is America's no.1 choice. He represents the Americans and he's the American voice. Democrats must respect democracy!
Please educate yourself on what a recession is. It a simple yes or no statistic threshold. The US is statistically not in a recession - not even close.
@@chrisak49 Is that "educate yourself" fueled by your dependency of the Biden administration to tell you what their definition of a recession is for the day?
@@chrisak49 Tell that to food , gas and goods prices. And to salaries not keeping up. And all the store closings.
Technically it isn't, but which Americans THINK that the economic matters are going well? This is what matters during the election, not statistics, which we all know aren't exactly reliable when politicians use them.
This guy pretty much just said the economy isn't bad. There's homeless people everywhere. These people live in a bubble. They don't live paycheck to paycheck.
Economically, the country has been much better than most other countries' recovery if you look at the fundamentals.
You could argue that the economy isn't working for the average person and I'd agree but that's not what the fundamentals care about.
@@Leftistatthepartyand guess who determines elections, the average person
@@Leftistattheparty People don't care about the spin put on things. They care about the price of groceries, fuel, homes, ect. Everything is worse under this corrupt administration.
@@Leftistattheparty Then your fundamentals, by definition, are worthless misleaders to the majority of people living in the United States.
No one cares that Wal-Mart tripled in size or whatever if all that money went into one rich guy's savings account and functionally disappeared from economic circulation.
Economy is good just means better than most of the time. It doesn't mean we solved poverty and we live in a post-scarcity utopia.
I don't think all the keys share equal weight.
Definitely not especially where regardless of what Biden does they win two keys or they lose two
Like like if Biden steps out, they lose two keys but also if Biden steps out, they don’t lose two keys
Also, you have to remember that Donald Trump had the biggest loss in history and most people didn’t like Joe Biden. They just voted for him because they knew Donald Trump is way. Worse way way worse I’ll take literally a guy that can’t do anything over Donald Trump.
Lichtman is very full of himself.
Most are subjective, and designed so he can interpret them however he wants after the election is over. It's a scam.
That was the biggest load of horse feathers
Plus they mis-characterize several of them. They claim Trump only has a narrow appeal to his base, whereas Trump got 71 million votes last election and packs in 50 and 60K audiences every day at rallies. Also they claim there is no scandal in this election. Which means they are either lying dog faced pony soldiers, or have not watched Biden walking around like a zombie for months.
kamala’s candidature would be a gift to the Republicans
It would indeed; and so is Biden's! 😂 TRUMP 2024
This sort of opinion expressed by 'Kevin' assumes bluster bullies can overtake smart, reasoned, and those that support smart and reasoning.
And they don’t even NEED your gifts
@@engletinaknickerbocker5380Biden, Kamala, Trump. One thing they have in common is that they are all neither smart nor reasoned
Trump is a super weak candidate and she could easily beat him. Most voters didn't want Biden or Trump. LOL
It doesnt matter if they are calling it a recession, its how does the average american "feel" about the economy, and its pretty clear that inflation has eroded any growth they want to flaunt. Only a small percentage of people felt that growth, credit card debt is at an all time high and the government's highest expense is now interest on the debt
the financial system that was created through the federal reserve act in 1913 is the cause of all the strife in the western world at present
People here need to have a serious re-evaluation of NEEDS vs WANTS. Our economy is the envy of the world.
Maybe. According to him, the sentiment doesn't matter, because 'voters have a more objective look at the past 4 years come election day'.
The Dems should have looked for another candidate a year ago. It is a disgrace that there is no one else to lead that party. Why the push for an older person who clearly is suffering from cognitive decline? Whats the agenda? Any American with an older relative can see the signs.
Blame the electoral college, since Biden is still the best possible Democrat to win it (since his moderate record means right leaning independents will most likely vote for him). What about the Republicans who chose an egotistical conman and wannabe dictator (who already lost once), as their nominee. You can’t even blame the electoral college for trump being chosen again.
Because their party only has two real options- aging neoliberals just as bad as Biden or Hilary, or young psychotic progressives so far left they probably screech when their blinkers signal right.
There was a chance for people like Tulsi Gabbard, and Democrats did everything they could to shut her down with all the force they could muster... which is par for the course, seeing as the Democratic Party is as democratic as french fries are French.
"The Dems should have looked for another candidate a year ago. It is a disgrace that there is no one else to lead that party." - methinks that they already have someone to replace Joe. They just had to show the country that Joe is not up to the task on debate night. That way, when they shove in their unvetted pick, no one will raise a fuss.
You could say the same thing about the Republicans and Trump!
@@dawnnadal6512 the agenda is to win over right leaning independent votes, which are crucial to winning the electoral college votes against trump. Can you name a prominent Democrat that can accomplish this better than Biden?
It’s sad that the President is looking so frail and is obvious to anyone objective that he could not serve another 4 years.
Parkinsonism.
Biden doesn't have to make it through 4 more years, he just has to win the election. Kamala Harris can't win. If you think that she would be a good president, then let Joe Biden win, then if something happens to him, Harris can take over.
@@stephen8433Just straight dementia or Alzheimer's.
his party's a bit long in the tooth to boot
Don’t count him out- Biden ALWAY comes back!!
Isn’t it a scandal if some people think he might have dementia? Asking genuinely. This might affect that key?
Well they have made trump take multiple cognitive tests. And after those tests he said he "aced" them. You don't "ace" a cognitive test. So trump already has that against him.
Yes, and I think the view of the long term economy ( among the bottom 80% of us who pay rent) is not good. I would say he's 4 keys down, not 2.
@@digleman1 ohh please do lecture the class on that incredible insight.
Read the transcript of Biden’s debate vs Trump.
Trump’s father is the one that suffered from dementia and Trump’s arguments or talking points make zero sense.
Exactly. The hole in Lichtman's reasoning is that he is looking at the debate as a self-contained event, rather than something that could affect how one of his other "keys" turns out.
Economy is not a check mark for this administration...trust me. Most American families are struggling to afford groceries and insurance. There's no way that's a strong point for the Biden White House.
I"d vote against Joe Biden 20 times.. but alas I'm not a Democrat...just once...
They will still struggle under Trump.
Compared to Trump's economy, which basically ended in a big lockdown with massive job loss, Biden comes out the winner.
I need Trump 2024
Most americans? me and everyone I know are doing just fine. In fact, our incomes and investments are the highest we have ever had
Why is Afghanistan not considered a foreign/military failure?
He talks about that elsewhere.
Because as horribly as the withdraw went - getting us out of that war is what the american people wanted
Or did you want to stay and fight another ten years?
@@writingref Most of the people commenting are not American. Their comments are driven by envy and resentment of American power, so no matter what the US does, it will receive criticism.
Afghanistan is the perfect example. Stay and we're damned, leave and we're damned. Biden made the right choice, it's the Middle East where he screwed up.
It happened one month into his presidency, the setup for it occurred under Trump
@@writingref I think losing a war would be a major military failure. We're still talking about the Vietnam failure even though most Americans wanted to leave that war, too. Leaving a war after winning it and a half assed pullout that wipes out all progress in the last decade-plus is not a good look.
@@gameragodzilla did we lose? Or did we give afghanistan 20 years of freedom and then have to leave? Our failure was not uniting the people against tyranny, but instead we allowed them to rely on us for protection
Meanwhile, in iraq - we taught them
To defend their freedom.
It depends on if people see it like me, or if they see it as a lost war
He doesn't consider the fact that we've never had a presidential candidate that has an obvious-to-everyone mental decline. The media can try to spin it any way they want, you can't dispute what we see with our own eyes.
@@RichD2024 The media is the one who spins the idea that Biden has mental problems for ratings 😂😂. Trump literally even said this himself it’s all about ratings for the media. People think over the leftist media is twisting things for Biden when they’re the ones pushing the idea that he has dementia because There honestly border by in like Biden is not a fun president like Trump who you can write an article and get clicks on every week multiple times a week. I have literally seen Fox News crop a video of Biden talking to someone to make it look like he’s talking to nobody. Also I don’t know if we all just have collective amnesia but the media was doing the same thing to trump when he ran the first time and Trump still was elected. Do you say this is the first time in history that a presidential candidate has shown that they might have mental decline is just not true at all. This is why people really need to study history more because like we are constantly just being lied to because for some reason the collective public can only remember like three years in the past tops.
Reagan. FDR. Questioned on mental/physical health. Still won.
@@pax6833bc they could atleast talk without looking like they havemental decline but biden cant
@@pax6833 Reagan could still put together a coherent sentence and FDR's disability had nothing to do with his mind. The Biden situation is unique and you know it.
And the scandal attached to its cover-up.
Lichtman’s model is a victim of its own success. Many keys monitor side effects of stable governance (incumbency, no primary challenge etc) rather than stable governance itself. The party suppressing potential primary challengers only delayed the exposure of Biden’s weak position rather than strengthening it. Being an incumbent will only help if the incumbent is seen to lead etc. making decisions based on the variables of a predictive model is a bad idea.
Pretty sure he's been successful while you haven't. I'll come back here when biden or harris is president 😂
Mr. Lichtman's 13 keys do not include any criteria related to the mental health, cognitive abilities, or psychological fitness of the president. It focuses on objective factors: incumbency, economic performance, social unrest, scandal, and foreign/military successes or failures.
Voter behavior is influenced significantly by subjective perceptions, emotions, and personal beliefs. How voters feel about a candidate's mental capacity can be as influential as objective economic or political conditions. This undermines the model's 'gladiator thumbs up/down' rating because it really needs a zero-sum game approach where negative cognitive perceptions detract from the objective factors.
@@AwkwardTruths because mental health is irrelevant to the facts on the ground around policy and it isnt even remotely clear if biden has mental problems to the degree that anyone cares enough to vote for trump. I'm voting biden dead or Alive because I vote for hid cabinet not just him
@@AwkwardTruthsMaybe you should come forward with an even more accurate model than his then? Until then, talk is cheap. His model has still been the best in this business so far.
And Lichtman is a victim of believing his own press clippings
is being dead part of your 13 keys?
Or severely demented.
Being comatose should be one of the keys.
@@sticklerforchangemaybe even 2 keys.
Nonsense smh!
they probably paid him off to try to convince Biden's supporters to vote for the emperor who is wearing no clothes.
Biden's got the 13 keys... now if he could only remember where he put them...
😂
@@leslovesliberty1776 You haven't been watching his latest public appearances.
I would also take Biden as a vegetable over traitor , adulterer and fraudster Trump.
Ageism is not funny. Have you NEVER lost your own keys?
@@sherrillsturm7240”ageism” brother he’s the most powerful man in the world with the most important job. He’s too old
omg….😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
My issue is that the 13 key system was designed decades ago. The way people consume information now is so vastly different, that many of the facets are completely turned on their head.
Bingo. Seems like this was pertinent in the 80’s
At last, a negative comment that doesn't simply say that the keys are dumb. But in what way does the consumption of information change the keys? For example, are you saying that the charisma key no longer functions because we are so siloed in our media consumption that even an FDR wouldn't have any appeal across the political divide?
ikr - this guy talking without an ounce of humility about how a reductive formula tells him the future sounds like a typical sleepwalking expert hack at this point - he also sounds like a Dem lol
@@rumination2399 he sounds like a dem how exactly? I would also have a lot of confidence in something that has correctly forecasted every election since the ‘80s, save for the one election that came down to one state and was shady af anyway.
@@genepoole1771 my comment was more related to the fact that validity and understanding of most of the issues has been skewed by our current mess of disinformation/misinformation. People are also so beholden to their political identities that they aren't open to information when it contradicts their beliefs.
Suggesting a sitting president to step down to boost the VP's chances based on a metric is so farcical, ignores the whole underlying notion of stability that the metrics seem to stem from, and just seems like ivory tower thinking?
I would LOVE to see Kamala try to go up against Trump 😅
Other civilized countries allow campaigns to last no more than a few months. America lets them go for years costing hundreds of millions of dollars, mostly dark money.
I would call them Self inflicted delusions.
If Biden stays in the running, on election day, Trump will win by an enormous landslide vote. If it's Kamala who's running, Trump will--for the first time in American history--unanimously win both the popular vote and the Electoral College votes. (The whole world despises this cackling witch.) For the first time ever, the USA map will be solid red and the Dems will, at last, have received their come-uppance. (I'm loving the way this election is turning out. It appears WHATEVER the Dems do now, they're simply going to lose. LONG OVERDUE.
Making Biden the candidate and Kamala Harris VP inherently ran this risk. They got 4 years out of it despite Biden being senile and possibly having dementia, and apparently no one likes Kamala
I just got a Jersey Mike reg sandwich for 12 bucks... a GIANT is 20 bucks now.. The economy doesn't work for low-income people...
Jersey Mike et al pay their suppliers who stick to 'em. Corporations set prices, whoever is president takes the rap.
Never has. Trump won't help you if you have no skills. You gotta get a skill set
Trump is going to reduce Jersey Mike prices? lol
I don't understand how Jersey Mike's is even in business still, you have to take out a second mortgage to eat there
but the gaslighting continues
Already disproved in 3 weeks,. He has to admit that dropping Biden HAS indeed helped the Dems a LOT in a very SHORT amount of time. Stay tuned.
Wait until after the honeymoon period… (mid September to start to see results) October for more concrete results. Stay tuned :)
Only the election results matter. That’s the ONLY poll that matters.
Only think democrats did by putting Harris in was given President Trump the victory.
This is college in a nutshell. Something your professor cooked up and will quiz you on that is utter nonsense and you'll never hear again.
Your comment is such a good metaphor. Apt analysis.
he got elections right more than anyone and elections happen every 4 years but okay
Joe Biden will win the next Presidency and it's a guarantee. Watch and know
Except that he's been right every time. So pay attention, you might learn something.
@@The101damnations I went to college. 😂 He’s using the fact that most presidents using the fact that most president win 2nd term unless there they get impeached. We’ve also flipped from democrats to republicans after every administration since H W Bush. The 13 keys are all nonsense and he will be wrong if Biden stays in.
We are in completely uncharted, unprecedented times. Some stupid checklist should not be determining whether Biden stays in or drops out… That’s about as scientific as a Buzzfeed quiz.
Neither should a comment on UA-cam 😂
EXACTLY! As if Biden standing down now and handing the presidendy to Kamala weeks prior to the convention, would somehow signal stability?! The "incumbency key" is clearly not designed to represent that unprecedented and politically disastrous scenario.
I’d like to agree but he guessed right last time and he had some valid points even though I didn’t wanna hear them
Let's not act like children.
Bro it’s just an opinion he’s not anyone with power lol
Anyone who seriously claims that the economy isn't a disaster is either in the 1% or insane. The cost of everything has doubled, and wages are flat.
Hello how are you doing!!!😊
Contrary to your fatalistic assessment, the economy isn’t a disaster. It isn’t best economy (due to inflation as a result of a bungled COVID response) but things are looking much better than this time 4-years ago when we were wondering if we’re getting strapped to a ventilator or not!
@@OG-nq8jm Comparing it to COVID doesn't mean it's good, anything looks good compared to 2020.
@@OG-nq8jm where are you from !
Inflation has been cumulative 20%. Wage growth is outpacing inflation. Stock market at an all time high. Job growth at an all time high. You aren’t trying.
This didn’t age well.
this is the most stupid explaination I have ever seen. Short term economy is a success? This is a big slap to the many americans suffering cause of this unforeseen inflation.
Inflation is from covid. Trump will not be able to do anything about it. Biden admin told everyone to prepare.
Thankfully most people aren't buying what the lying dems are selling this time.
Funny that the Americans suffering economically voted against a red wave in 2022. Maybe they don't care or the economy isn't as bad for them as you think it is
There is a 'rest of the world' where inflation is equally high or higher in many places.
@@spacebrainerit doesn't matter matter it's not a success to voters right now in 2024
I'm sorry to ask, but are there any people left in America under the age of 80 who can be interviewed on television?
😂😂😂 or become a president
Yes, but they're all corrupt and traitors.
i can't wait until they only let the educated vote. what will you guys do without representation?
yes age is a factor although joe is unwell, brain surgery, lung clots, poor physical shape, anyorysms, dementia, pooping pants, , he is sick and his disease is progressing! I know many people over 80 that shine, are sharp Joe is excluded, don't judge every older person by this mans short comings, he had many of them as a senator
@@alko_xo what about under the age of 60. What is Americas obsession with these old farts
American politics are Hollywood nowadays.
@@johnnycajon4858
Well said
That did not aged well....
This metric doesn't account for someone who is mental decline
It does that’s the point
It does though. Reagan went through mental decline yet he won in the biggest landslide in election history because he had a very strong grasp of the keys.
Have you not seen clips of Trump when he talks about running against Obama, the threat of WWII, Nikki Halley in charge of White House security, his talk about sharks and batteries, Hannibal Lecter and other fanciful tales, bragging about his relationships with leaders known to murder their political rivals and on and on? That isn’t mental decline?
Compared to the egotistical conman challenger who wants to become a dictator, age induced mental decline is a small issue.
@@MrSkyboy997 Also, Reagan was more popular than Biden, and his mental decline was not as pronounced.
This guy casually talking like it’s dungeons and dragons
That’s how intelligent people discuss things.
"Well I gave it my best shot and lost so fvck democracy, and I won't live long enough to see how bad it gets."
Maybe Democrats should just vote for RFK Jr if Biden decides to not seek re-election.
@@Brap-pl2meNope
Yeah, it is stupid. He made his 'keys' as a model to predict reality. But now he is advising Democrats to game his model, as if reality will then bend to fit the model. It is really strange for a scientist to even suggest this. This isn't a video game. There isn't an actual real life algorithm that checks these keys. You Lichtman made up these keys. They only exist in your hear. It may be a good model, but cheating to game the model doesn't work.
This guy is oblivious to the working class issues...
This did not age well
Maybe a 14th key should be “to not be a senile old fool”
😂
Im suprise ppl arent replying with "and 15th to not be a felon"
Biden is obviously neither senile nor a fool. Biden and Trump are both old. Biden is only 3 years older than Trump.
😂😂😂
@@elcalabozodelandroide2Because the hypothetical 14th key applies to both candidates already.
Bruh , economy is not booming. I cannot buy groceries with my pay. Even the 99cents near me shut down their business. It was 50 years old company.
He doesn’t just mean inflation when talking about a booming economy.
Just because they’re is inflation does not mean it’s a bad economy. Wages are up. But these grocery store chains are price gouging. it is corporate inflation at this point
When people go from being able to afford things and now they can’t real wages are in no way up. That is what inflation is.
Businesses close down everyday, it's normal. Plus those stores are trash
The US right now had an economic rebound faster and stronger than anywhere on earth. Idk what you guys expect especially since the last admin caused the current inflation issues in this country due to all those stimulus packages Congress approved under Trump.
So the current Resident isn't soaked in scandal? Seriously? Just because the media ignored them all? Really?
Maybe because nobody cares about your crazy conspiracy theories.
And Trump has way more scandals.
I think it’s useless to reply on this ignorant comment! Convicted felon by jury of his own peers wow!
@rositatan5325 The problem with your argument is simply that you are wrong. But that's not all !!! You probably think you're not just clever, but actually correct. So just know that you're not fooling anyone but yourself and maybe like-minded ignoramuses.
Alan was wrong
This is the Astrology of politics
😅
I guess you missed the fact that he correctly predicted 9/10 elections, with the only one he predicted incorrectly being Al Gore
He predicted the past 10 elections right except Bush vs. Gore
@@salj.5459 The system is quite subjective, and might as well be random in predicting the popular vote- back when he was still trying. 9 of the last 10 elections were also predicted by opinion poll- that track record is not impressive.
What key is Lying and Covering up the pathetic state of incumbent 🤔
yeah! & the convicted felon key, the sexual assault key, the surrounded by angry shallow extremists key... not enough keys.
Lichtman is missing some keys because THEY NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in his historical dataset. This would include a Trump-descriptive key AND an age debility key. Lichtman has to be missing some of his own marbles or be in denial to not see that.
@@grumpy9478 Have you put in Election Rigging Key, Covering up Laptop key, Lying all the time key, Uncle Zombie key, Business with Ukraine key 😭
@@Jerisson and the ignorant masses voting for trump key?
@@jamisojo Makes sense than Ignorant masses voting for a Vegetable or a Fried Chicken 👍
MSM IS D.O.A.
MSM is bought and paid for by China and Saudi.
So apparently Mr Lichtman wasn’t as successful this time…
This guy it’s so wacky he went on with Chris Cuomo and tried to convince us that Biden debate performance was only a one off and that he’s never performed like that before.
@@darthlestrange Where can I find his last debate performance like that?
Chris Cuomo wasn’t talking about debates he was telling him that that’s who’s Biden is in general a poor communicator and it’s suffering from some kind of mental decline and he kept trying to say that’s not true that Biden’s totally fine. No one believes that not even democrats.
He's a lot smarter than you are....
@@spacetoast7783I think this guy means that Biden have display his cognitive decline/age so many times. From shaking hand with thin air, to getting lost on stage to claiming to talk to dead. He lies a lot too. Who can forget the corn pops story but the worse is when he say his uncle was shot down and eaten by cannibals. 😅😅😅
@@AngryFartalso a big liar
if biden has keys to anything please take them
😂 ...just the nuclear codes...nothing important! 😮
Inflation has always been the nail in the coffin for many U.S Presidents.
no. a recession has.
The US has improved more than any other country after Covid.
Maybe with high inflation. We don't have high inflation... we have price gouging (record profit margins).
@@phiksit no no. We have real inflation.
Inflation is caused by printing money by the GOVT. Not price gouging by companies.
Only the govt creates inflation. Period. Get the facts straight prior to speaking on it.
'it's the economy, stupid...'
same way hitler came to power after WW1 poverty
Well this didn't age well 😂
He's not even interpreting his own keys correctly.
Exactly 💯
According to you?
Because he is a fraud
Human flaw - bias
We are in a recession and the Democrats are in denial. Sahm rule is now in effect per economists. Incumbents do not get re-elected in a recession. This indicator is a better and more reliable basis than his model.
Good, its time for the democrats to truly fight for democracy and let the voters decide. We've seen 4 years of trump and 4 of biden. The polls look the way they do for a reason.
We're not a Democracy!
The Democrats don't care about democracy (the Republicans do just bit more). It's a nebulous term used to gaslight us.
August 2020, not Jan 6 2021….
The Great Deception we’re now suffering consequences from is the first compromised nomination of J. Biden.
Every time I type 45’s name I get sen-sirred.
No. You’re wrong.
Immigration policy?!!
Who cares!?
Are you aware of Biden’s recent executive order?
@@rockhero2274huh? It’s the second biggest issue to people.
The Orange Maniac squashed it. Vote Blue
@@neverbackdown1918 And there would've been a bill that passed had the Republicans voted in favor of it. Everything they wanted and fought for was in the bill. But because Trump said don't vote for it, they gave in and it never passed. 🙄
aged poorly
If this doesn't count as a scandal, than nothing does.
@@dariusonly1384 Everyone I don't like is a scandal
There is nothing shameful in getting old. Aging out is not a crime, it is not a sin. It is the course of nature. We'll all go though it if we are lucky enough. I am not backing up the idea that president BIDEN should stay in the race, I am just saying that cannot be considered a scandal. If you call that a sandal, that would greatly decrease the base essence of the word per se. A scandal is something that's supposed to be shamefully outrageous in society when it comes into broad light.
Didn't everyone already know that everyone will get old some day and that the president is over 80 years old???
That's hardly surprising...
You think *this* is a "scandal"? That's cute. The Lewinsky Affair or Iran-Contra were *real* scandals. Don't criticize something you haven't read, he wrote a whole book explaining what he meant by each point
If Jan 6 was not an insurrection…
@dariusonly1384 34 felonies, stolen documents and much more do."
I call BS on the economic key. If you do nit have assets like stocks, house, etc then you feel this Economy sucks
It's like republicans don't like capitalism anymore 🤣
Its not about personal feelings, the economy is based on facts and specific indicators not individual experiences.
@@2Bluzinno it’s not
@@2Bluzin The basket of good has always been changed to make inflation disappear, whenever it was needed. It is a joke. You only need to go to Mc Donald's and fuel up your car to know that life in any practical sense has become a lot more expensive. People do not need a university clown with a party affiliation to explain inflaition away with some arbitrary change to the selection of relevant goods. If you want to believe it, be my guest...
Democrats are biased and won't admit that tho, they also won't admit they keep revising the job growth to lower numbers quietly.
What a strange system that ignores a candidate's obvious mental health problems.
Yeah, both presumed candidates have their own sort of mental health issues.
@@SO-SOgood
Who are you to determine that a person has mental health problems? Biden gave good answers- much better than Trump, but he was sick. All Trump did was LIE, which is what he usually does.
Trump’s mental health issues were ignored in 2016
@@omelborpon3159only one was fit to stand trial tho
Reagan also won. "Mental health" is a nebulous concept and most Americans aren't qualified to comment on it.
I believe you are wrong in this election and things would get worse and Harris would be just as bad
TDS in action. Pathetic
It's fun how you can make up a term and then just say it at literally any time. Does TDS mean any time anyone from the other side says anything at all?
@@Norsilcajust another buzzword originating from 1984.
@@FrahdChikunYou mean like cult, democracy all your fake works.
Get your pay in $ not rubles
*Historian Has The Hubris To Explain Something That Has Never Before Happened In History*
Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson pick up a book
Professor Lichtman did predict all ten past elections correctly.
Well I can explain that biden is history.
@alexanderaz8 SAY WHAT? We’ve had 58 presidential elections. So yes it has happened before. His 13 keys to win are based on those previous elections
.
@pingwang7478 WELL he’s predicting Biden will win, so I guess he’ll lose this one
.
He should say, “it’s for the good of the country.” Yeah, that might’ve worked if there hadn’t been a massive cover up by the party, and media. The voters don’t trust them.
The economy is in their favour? People can’t fill up their cars or afford groceries. What part of in favour, is that?
No one should take him and his bogus ‘keys’ seriously
Here i was thinking i was listening to an unbiased analysis only to realize it's just one of the Democrat apologists
Lol He's been correct 90% of the time in the last 10 elections, and the only one he lost was when the Supreme Court intervened and gave an election to Bush. Not to mention, he ran it back 100 years and it was STILL 90% accurate. Which means, he also predicted Trump would win in 2016.
This must be why so many conservatives completely denounce science, objectivity, truth, facts, etc... He uses an OBJECTIVE model. And he is the most accurate at predicting elections. People in the sciences (myself included) understand how to separate our personal biases and objective experimentation, theorizing, etc...
UA-cam WSJ runs pretty hard to the left unfortunately
Yup
Agreed
WSJ is a mouth piece for the Democrats
MSM still full of 💩😂
Since their beggening trump expose them,now they are hopeless,
Corporate owned media needs to talk about Trump's lies (from the debate) as much as they talk about Biden's performance. (How about fact checking Trump's lies?)
my singing monsters
@@tamsinlewis5161politicians lying is normal, politicians having dementia is not. Sorry, if this bothers you. Biden also lies, Bush committed a genocide based on a lie.
@@Kosovar_Chicken I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
I guess this is why media seems to be insisting there's no recession
Or because there isn't? There's inflation, but there's also GDP growth, so there isn't a recession, by definition. I'm not saying that we should *only* consider recession, because inflation is hurting people regardless.
@@ssbohio I did some more reading and you're correct. Thanks.
I was more referring to the media presentation that the economy is doing well, overall
@@fitforfreelance To be sure, there are significant problems affecting the American economy, but they mainly arise from structural issues. We've had 4+ decades where worker wages did not keep up with economic growth, and it was only the relatively low inflation that made that work. Well, the party's over. The issue that economists have been warning about is here. And it hurts.
This won't age well. He left out the incumbent is senile key. (No, @lilemont9302, Biden being senile is a not the same thing as just lacking charisma.)
And the wannabe dictator with a lot of criminal suits stacking up on him with allocations of misconduct toward women. Biden with a competent staff doesn't seem so bad to me.
True. Only very radical Liberals will vote for a Senile candidate. They hate Trump that much.
And the key that the challenger is also senile e.g. electric boat battery vs angry shark MIT monologue.
@@genepoole1771 Trump is not senile. You're judging from a couple seconds taken from 90+ min speeches
@@Mercurial_Phoenix Also, let's not forget the times he's confused roles and events, such as saying that he will defeat Obama or Hilary, the frequent non sequiturs where his train of thought has derailed and he's started mumbling briefly and then changed the subject to something unrelated. If you're not seeing the footage then you're getting your news from Fox or similar who are editing it out. Google it.
In his interview from two month ago this guy never mentioned that the scandal can’t be indirectly related…his keys are so subjective it’s useless
When he’s right again in 2024 what will you say?
@@lebruh2278 Interesting, I didn't think he would change his mind and go with Trump again.
Donald Trump is America's no.1 choice. He represents the Americans and he's the American voice. Democrats must respect democracy!
13 keys? Sounds a lot like the "19 bellweather counties" method that worked so well from 1980 to 2016 but failed miserably in 2020.
Because 2020 was so clean.
And it’s bellwether.
Fairest and most secure EVER… 81 million 🥴
Yes. A kind of magical thinking belief system. Notice how he's pretending it's objective by claiming there is some objective True/False. Yet his own definition is just Scandal? Charisma? as if those are objective. AFAIK FDR wasn't known to be universally charismatic. But he had good policy ideas: save capitalism by keeping the masses from revolting by buying them off with socialism lite.
2020 was as unusual... or nearly as 2024 is turning out to be. And if it wasn't for covid , I almost 100 percent guarantee Trump would have been re elected
@@muzzcovw7674 I guarantee it 100%. If it weren’t for covid the democrats would have had to follow election laws and wouldn’t have been able to cheat as they did. And as their states made them revert to the old election laws….
Confused. He says Biden dropping out won't make a difference. Trump will win. A new video says Harris likely to win. He's not being consistent.
Hiatoricaly theres no reason of this happening. Harris should be losing. But she's doing the unthinkable and making history.
Also, she got the charisma key.
@@EllRiver So his model doesn't work.
Extrapolation can be a dangerous thing.
This election is many things, but it's not like the others.
Only poll that matters is in November.
"trump only appeals to a narrow base" - bro he had like 64 million votes that's 48% of the voters 😂
The point he is making is that his popularity isn’t enough to grant him the charisma key. To qualify for the charisma key you have to dominate the popular vote hence why only candidates such as FDR, Reagan, and Obama in 08’ were able to secure that key. You got to listen carefully to what he is saying.
74 million votes in 2020
@@Rainy_Day12234 It doesn't matter. You can't qualify for the charisma key and lose the popular vote in both of your elections. Trump is not popular at the level of FDR, Reagan etc.
The employed single or with families can barely survive since 2020 and the uncertainty of WW3 is in Cuba at the moment,let that sink in.
Except he did drop, Kamala is in and he changed his tune
There is no way to pass over Harris. If you open up a primary then it would be a clown show. Its either Biden or Harris
yes also if they skip Biden and not choose Harris they look bad because they passed over a black female candidate😂 A group of Democrat voters might not like that. Theyre stuck. Either way they loose
She’s just the worst
Neither is competent. The democrats knew this when they nominated them in 2020. They choose Biden because they understood who and what he is and that he is for sale. That he can be used effectively to implement their radical, irrational agenda if he gets something in return. Now the chickens have come home to roost.
538 has only one potential candidate who polls ahead of Trump……. Michelle Obama + 11 %. over Trump and that poll included President Biden.
@@thegalhorowitz Michelle Obama is the only potential candidate polling ahead of Trump. + 11 % (538)
This professor's keys are a bunch of malarkey. He forgot the enfeebled octogenarian key
They’re both basically octogenarians so idk if that’s really the issue. Biden just *seems* older than Trump
100%
Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson both had that and won
People were saying how deluded he was to predict trump for the White House in 2016 and yet he got it right and he's been right for the past 10 elections up to now. To give you probabilistic numbers on his chances for him to be right every single time for the past 10 elections, it is a 1 in 1024 chance. Or in other terms a 0.0009766% chance which is very low. If you actually go in more in depth in his system, he's a historian who has based his system on all the other elections since George Washington and combined this history with a Russian earthquake physicist who studies patterns to predict earthquakes. They've came up with this model based on pattern recognition of all the other elections and I rather trust this guy's track record and history then your politically partisan opinion.
@@jacobnapkins1155 They didn't have dementia
Key 14: Is the President's Brain Working? Never even had to ask that question before.
It just prove that you do not need to have a brain to become the president of the United States
It's NOT...
You don't know what you're talking about.
Once before in 1984
Then you would need Key 15: Is the challengers Brain not working or is he known to lie more often than speak the truth.
Come on, he has a good system with a good track record. If you want Trump to win and you think Biden has dementia, should you not tone it down so Biden stays the candidate to make it easier for Trump? And If you want to avoid Trump, your brain might be working enough to see that if you re-watch the full debate, you will note that Biden is old, but does not have dementia, and if those keys work, you should tone it down to avoid flipping the "Party in disarray" or what was it named key?
So no matter where you stand. Stop this useless debate, its just noise that distracts from the real questions. Maybe stop gibing attention to this obvious ad hominem and debate the policy proposals: Would you like four more years of Bidenomics and international respect by US allies, or do you prefer Project 2025 and a King?
‘Historian explains why a corpse as presidential candidate is no worse than someone who is actually alive and can motivate people’ 🤷♂️
This is absurd
In addition to correctly predicting that an egregious current candidate would not win, the keys have formerly been tested under "normal" conditions (youngish, healthy, compos mentis candidates with rational "operating systems"). Despite Lichtman's enormous confidence in himself, this bilateral fiasco is far from normal.
Yes, fiasco is the 14th key. Except no one every subjected fiasco to rigorous statistical modeling analysis.
@@antoniopizarro7670 "Fitness for office" is the 14th key --- covered prophetically by the 25th Amendment. "Fiasco" is simply a descriptor of the current dilemma of two who are unfit in different abnormal ways.
@@antoniopizarro7670 satire, right? If so, you may be on to something.
The keys have been tested even with old people like Reagan, where similar concerns existed. I admit, not even close to the scale of today, but there is precedent. It might be worth adding it as another key, but so far, Americans seem to (begrudingly) be just fine with octogenerians in the Oval Office- so maybe the 'charismatic incumbent' key suffices, deemed false this time.
@@lilemont9302 You're right, there's no precedent. Reagan (81-1-20 to 89-1-20) was 74 at the beginning of his second term. He announced his Alzheimer's diagnosis on 94-11-5. So, still a comparatively normal situation. In addition, Reagan was not clearly suffering Parkinson's OR twice impeached, a convicted felon (etc), a fan of the USSR's and North Korea's dictators, and was not widely recognized as "cluster B". This is an alarming dilemma.
A historian? Ok, what examples of candidates with obvious dementia is he drawing from?
Ronald Reagan.
DJT
@MayaWaters12It is perhaps neither. Apparently you and most here do not listen to Dr. John Gartiner's pod where an M.D. he had on explained that, given his buoyant rally the next day after the debate and the 18 rallies Biden has had since then, that it would be virtually impossible for someone with dementia to recover the very next day to that extent AND it is undeterminated whether Biden has Parkinson's or not, HOWEVER Parkinson's is a very slow progressing disease. One only has to look at how long it took Parkinson's advocate Michael J. Fox's to advance. He was acting for years after his diagnosis and, as a performer myself, let me tell you the average time on set is a 12 hour day.
Haven't been able to get all the way to the end of this paid commercial - but does this historian mention Edith Bolling Galt Wilson? She was unelected president from the moment Woodrow Wilson had a stroke until the end of his presidency. She once allowed a small delegation of three senators to look in and see if he is still alive. Otherwise everything had to go through her. And people were too "sensitive" to push harder.
Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted presidential candidates since the 1980s.🎤
**"I'M GOING TO BEAT DONALD TRUMP AGAIN IN 2020"- JOE BIDEN 2024**
I'm not going to re-watch it, but I hope the heck he didn't say that. [face palm]
@@alabamaflip2053 he did and yes it's hard to watch.
He did.
😂😂
@@mariana3393What about Trump saying he defeated Obama? What about Trump saying we are going to fight world war 2? What about Trump not knowing where he was in Iowa? What about Trump saying Nicky Haley was Nancy Pelosi? What about Trump incessantly lying?
This guy just debunked himself and predicted Kamala as likely
Skip over the crippling inflation, thats a tactic
Inflation grows the economy
That's exactly why this is all happening. None of this is new with Biden.
They are changing their tune now because they are losing, and they don't have any good policies to highlight.
@@gregoryturk1275people can’t afford food
@@gregoryturk1275 Big time lie, and you know it! Inflation does not grow the economy other than big companies... not at the level where it matters... The Home! Just walk into any grocery store, etc... and listen to people complaining how they are now having to buy the cheapest Ketchup they can or Mayo! yes... Condiments are a key to the economy! You'll find the cheaper items out of stock but the more expensive items are always in stock! Where are you living?
@@gregoryturk1275 Stop the Elitist Racism that you are throwing out! It's not True for most people... They are suffering and struggling! We all are!
The hubris is this guy. He can't see the variables (keys) are fluid, not fixed.
The polls have predicted 9 of 10 as well 😂
Exactly his only impressive prediction was 2016, he’s also still crying about being wrong in 2000
@@allprolemontonz8448Even 2016 you could argue the polls were more accurate because Hillary won the popular vote.
@@allprolemontonz8448 He wasn’t wrong in 2000, though. Every one knows the election was stolen from the democrats.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 There is no such thing as the popular vote. Our president is elected by the electoral college, the electors from each of the states. "Popular vote" is just a media distraction that makes some people feel better when their candidate loses. Until the last few elections nobody ever talked about "popular vote" because it wasn't a thing. It's irrelevant to electing POTUS and the down ballot races.
@@allprolemontonz8448 It's so funny to me, these predictions are straight up politician astrology nonsense haha
Does this factor in if the candidate survived an assassination attempt ?
Are objective measurements *really* more significant than public opinion? If enough voters *think* that there is a scandal or a bad economy, would that not influence the outcome of the election regardless?
You know what they say about opinions. The reality is votes.
You can hardly speak of objective measurements. How can anyone say there's objectively not a scandal?
@@hubblebublumbubwub5215. please tell me what that scandal is.
Not only that but NBER might not the best way to gauge a recession, as consumer sentiment is that we are a recession regardless of what GDP numbers say.
@@hubblebublumbubwub5215The scandal is covering up Bidens mental decline. The reason it sticks is because both dems and republicans are believing it. Its bipartisan
Needs to add a key for dementia
along w/ another for adderall dependency.
No scandals for Biden???
This guys toupee is on too tite!!!
Toupees are all the rage in the GOP these days. The scandal key is clearly defined in his book. You should read it.
Joe Biden is of good character and has never been tied to any scandals despite over 50 years in public service. Right wing manufactured "scandals" don't count.
If you think Biden is growing in scandals then you're watching too much fox news, Newsmax, or Republican commentators on UA-cam or TikTok.
Name the scandal
@@MrSkyboy997 Ukraine, Afghanistan, Business with Hunter, 12 million Illegal Aliens invited in. 18% inflation. ALL of those are scandals, as I see them. Things that should NEVER have happened.
he said it predicted correctly 9 out 10 times. I wish they had told us about the exception, because this time certainly feels like one
Al Gore he predicted the winner it was SCOTUS that stole it
I know right?!?
The exception is the 2000 Presidential election.
Bush won in 2000 but didn't win the popular vote