Is this not a Bull Run ?
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- Опубліковано 14 жов 2024
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Alok is the Founder of Weekend Investing. He has been in the Indian stock markets for almost three decades now and is passionate about building rule based - non discretionary momentum investing models to invest in the markets that can generate superior returns compared to benchmarks . His dream is to try to help others achieve Financial Independence early so that life can be lived to the full, like it has for him.
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WOW, very few people on youtube, with such a good analysis and presentation skill, got acoross this channel recently and have become a fan of you now..
Tks
Earlier I used to buy and forget, now I book profit at regular intervals. My exit strategy is to sell 50% on target price, and balance only when weekly trend reverses.
Same
You are comparing old black and white movies with recent high-tech movies!
Comparing old market with recent market is a foolish thing a man can do! Because earlier only 0.1% population used to invest in market where now more than 20% population started investing in market through SIP and lumpsum! Earlier market was run by FII’s fund but now FII’s has become irrelevant!
Actually you need to hold and let the wealth accumulate. Better learning required
@Rajveer_SDinghhh Depends on what kind of stocks you invest in. Imagine if you held stocks like Yes bank, Suzlon, etc for long term wealth.
Ok
Exceptional views and great behavioural aspects which really helped me.
Request if you could increase your voice recording volume as it turns out to be too low, especially on some mobile devices.
Thanks, will do!
This is an excellent video. Videos I have seen are asking investors to be ready for a crash. I have been hearing the same thing for the last 1 year. I have simply continued with investments in hybrid funds and don't see any reason to stop now. even if they do crash I hope hybrid funds will take advantage and use their excess cash to buy the dip
What abt HDFC balanced advantage fund
Tks
Will stay invested & may invest more too. But will come to cash as soon as nifty 250 small cap is below 100ema. Also will keep hedge with 25% gold and planning 10% silver too. I guess silver time may come soon. It will be used in electric & hydrogen car a lot. As soon as 250 small cap is above 1ooema will be back in equities momentum ones. thanks Alok ji for all guidance.
Grt
Mr Amit, pl make a strategy based on your plan of 100 Day EMA of small cap 250.
Then backtest for 5 and 10 years to start with. You will get a fair idea, as to how good is the CAGR and Drawdown along with over all performance. Donot take decision based on a thought , but on data backed back testing results. All the very best
Very thoughtful & wisely designed elaboration.
I see, apart from stock value & its own quality, the human sentiments are at great play all the way. Currently, its to go down process, by mix play of greed (profits) & mainly fear (losses).
The core adress of your deliberations is a hope, people will hold their horses on a downslope. (thinking that its a bull market)
But identifying a faulty or *correct horse* to ride itself demands a well structured knowledge. That many really *don't* have.
So their *selection at source is uncertain* . So no conviction. Then falling market amplifies the chaos.
Then who, the wise one holding a good stock with appropriate valuation, helplessly exits.
😅
Its just tahat, investers learn to exit at least in profits, (though less) or, at minimal losses when initial indicators are confirmed. Every time.
Thank you for your insights.
This is surely helpful for those who missed this dimension of their perspective.
👍
Tks
Nice presentation, pls also make same presentation on bear Market and it's drawdown.
I m ur MI20 subscriber, how do u exit from MI 20 stock pls share it that would be really helpful and provide confidence to remain present in the smallcase.
Will upload soon
A great video. I try to follow Mark Minervini and exit if a stock falls -7% from my purchase price or closes below 11EMA on weekly basis. This has mostly helped me avoid big drawdowns
Good stuff!
Excellent presentation Alokji (Guruji). Explained in depth the market temperament. I have already a member of WI family and planning to add in more. Thanks a lot
All the best
very well said and optimistic view. Recently started with WI and will shift my entire portfolio to WI strategies ... Apart from the returns the strategies are very light on investors and not much active time and efforts needs to be invested.
Agree on all your points and I think there will come some sell off as it always happens but staying invested at that times is very important. Even if we dont add more money during corrects its fine but we should not touch our investments and be out of market.
Dear can you elaborate pls what is WI strategies? Thx
Tks
Dear can u pls elaborate what is WI strategies?
Thanks alok ji for yet another insightful presentation. Planning to invest in your smallcase. Can we discuss for 2 minutes to clarify certain points.
Pls book a call thru the WI App
what should be the exit strategy
. kindly enlighten us
Pls see numerous videos on exit done earlier
Wonderful summarization of the historic wealth generation opportunity in an elegant video. Kudos sir.
So nice of you
92' was a scam for liquidity, 08' was liquidity due to CDO, currently it's Again liquidity due to quantitative easing, this will come to end when a currency will crash.
good point
Ok
Without any unforeseen or unfortunate worldwide event, why would a currency crash? Can you please enlighten us? 😅
US economy - Debt to GDP ratio
Alok, You are a big bull! We will just follow you to benefit from this possible extended bull run.
Haha
Planning to buy SGB and use it as a collateral for a loan and invest the sum received in an index funds …your thoughts
Good plan perhaps
Alok Ji while appreciating your views on guiding us, we have to be prepared for a sudden black swan incident which could come up suddenly. The video should have also have a suggestion on when to exit just in case things didn't go our way. I request you to also compare what just investing in the blue chips would have yielded today take colpal for example. For a 25 year old a sip is best but for a senior citizen the ball game is different. I WOULD request you to share an exit strategy, btw I'm invested 75-80% as on date and I am sitting on the edge. Views personal and I could be wrong. ALSO the Nifty monthly RSI is 80 and historically it has been a time to sell, will it be different now? Time will tell. Thanks.
Can you elaborate more about Colpal.
Yes we shd be prepared
This bull run does not seem to be a BULL run compared to the last ones yet now 😀
Ya
My exit plan - sell 1/3 qty if stock breaks 21 EMA and exit completely if it breaks 50 DMA . Re-enter if it goes above 50 DMA. Am I doing the right thing?
You do this on Daily charts, right? So, your investment horizon is only for 4-8months, right brother?
Ok
Hi, you say that hedging strategy to be adopted buy investing in gold. I would like know which form of gold. Is it gold ETF. Please reply to my question. Thankyou. Your videos are very informative.
SGB is his strategy
Physical SGB, etf
If we see, the XIRR has halved in each following bull run from the previous bull run. Should we see this as a trend which would invite concern?
Could be
Thank you for the great analysis Alok ji. About the exit point you touched upon towards the end of the vid, q is : Stock Market Capitalization-to-GDP Ratio >>>can this be taken into account while exit all of the portfolio? please advise or if possible a vid would clarify. thanks again. Best
It is one metric that can be used in conjunction with others
While I may stay invested ,but will be cautious not to put more money in sector which have stretched valuation . Keep investing regularly .But will not be agnostic to valuation
Very pragmatic view on the market. Great analysis.
I keep buying more as and when I have surplus money w/o worrying about the index value.
Well said!
Thank you Alok, following your videos since 2022 although stopped getting your feeds in between. What you said about upmove blast in short period is absolutely true. I read some news about Shakti Pump, loved the analysis so bought only 1 qty at 1350 and wanted it to fall more before I make a lumpsum. However , it kept on rising from there and even crossed 4k. I still have that 1 stock but I couldn't add more than my avg. price. Keep up the great work 👌
Thanks for sharing
Top class. After a long time I hv seen such a knowledgeable video. I hv bn in d Mkts since 1980s & so I know what happened then. I had a super portfolio in 1985 but wn Mkts crashed drg 1986-87 I panicked & sold off my blue chips. After that from 1988 d huge bull run hpnd & I was crying literally
Thanks a ton
Your age now
Superb analysis sans noise. Thank you and keep'em coming.
Thanks, will do!
Few things to consider and thinking over it will give a perspective.
1) Inflation globally is on downtrend.
2) Interest rates are about to get cut.
3) Earnings are getting better every quarter.
4) So much liquidity chasing risky asset class.
5) Most of the asset classes rallying (except real estate in western world) so if money flows out of equity, where will it go ?
There isn’t a single factor that may signal the party is over. Sectors may rotate but party to last long.
Specifically in India until the domestic liquidity is strong, very less chance of sizeable correction.
When it will fall it will falll despite all these good reasons.
Appreciate your knowledge sharing, that too "based on data". I have become wiser in the market, and your content on momentum investing has helped me tremendously. A big thank you!
Great to hear!
Good to know long term trend 📈 for Nifty is still in line with past historical returns↗️
ya
Hello sir , how you think people should invest now ,
By seeing this bull run in last 4 yrs ?
Wait for budget ...may be we see some corrections in the market ?
Let not short term events guide you
Earlier i used to sell which ever i gave me 10% return as a result i kept selling good stocks and holding slow movers.Changed my strategy to investing through multiple ETF’s which are giving me consistent returns and smaller dispersion
Ok
Buy on dips 4,5 stocks different sectors and hold for 15 years
Ok
Buy and. Hold only when you have a separate fixed portfolio of considerable size.
Ok
What will be market when everybody seller and no buyer like in 2000
Superb analysis and clarity of thought 👍
Tks!
Great video and great perspective. I think with stable government and consistency in the policy , the rally will continue until there is major shift in the policies., so technical graduation increase could go for whole decade
Tks
For those kind of rally, companies eps growth should be near around that rally. But now companies are not giving that result.
Yup
please also imagine the total market cap seen against GDP. difficult to repeat past perfformance
Ok
How does one apply for a Job/apprenticeship/internship at your office? Will getting an MBA from ISB (or equivalent) increase the chances?
Pls send us mail
No apparent reason for the bull run to end. It might ease off and on and come back. I wonder even if capital gains taxes are hiked the markets after a sharp fall might come back to run the same way.
Ok
So there is no benefit of keeping some spare money for lumpsum investment during a sharp short term fall?
Can do
Amazing quality and great insight !!! Thank you Alok Sir for sharing your awesome thoughts.
So nice of you
Thank you Sir, Stay invested, good to know.
Grt
Sir please tell me why cant we run a long short momentum strategy? Why you along with all fund managers run only long strategy? Long when market is long and short when market is falling can really give u a good sleep as per me. Please tell me if i am wrong
Can do
I disagree on the the FII inflow, as the FII even though they wish to invest in India, due to over-valued stock they are on the wall at present.
Ok
Superb, very good analysis, solid data back approach , keeps us motivated on our market investment path
Tks
Mega bull run - how is it compared to 2004 to 2007 rally?
Sir,i follow your momentum stretegy ranking system in nifty 200. Sir is this right to continue in down trend market? Please help?
Yes why not
@AlokJain What’s your view on saving some investable portion for a future crash/ big fall? Say, I have a total of ₹100 as investable funds, I invest ₹80 without trying to “time the market”; and keep the remaining investable balance to be invested during a major crash (trying to time/anticipate).
Or do you recommend to stay invested 100%?
I would say asset allocate and if there is a crash rebalance
Always keep in mind floating stock of co
Ok
Nice presentation sir.
This will help a lot of investors like me to stay put in the market 😊
Great 👍
Started following you recently. Great content with datas.
Welcome aboard!
Portfolio churning is the reality , always keep the profit in the form of stocks of that company which has given profit to you
Ya
There's no use of talking about past performance.... There's no guarantee that the same will be repeated. In today's context we should wait for some meaningful corrections before investing. The market is sure to correct some 1500 to 2000 pts as the price won't justify the earnings for most companies. People seeing initial bull run in 2021 started putting all their savings into equity or MF. Be cautious. Take profit, partially or fully when you got 60, 80 % gain ( If you have conviction on the companies, then take what was invested and leave the rest to grow). This is the strategy I followed. Tanla, skipper, Engineers India, NBCC, killpest, AGI Green pack, Nelcast, Divis lab, IT Bees, all gave me 50 to 400 percent return in the last 3 years. Still due to some bad holdings I lost some gained about 60 to 70 percent... So do the fundamental analysis and invest over time...
Ok ji
The only flaw in your analysis is that you are taking Covid low as the bottom, But actually 2008 Oct low is the bottom. So everything must be analysed for that point. The reason being covid crash was not the bear market or a crash, it was just a liquidity grab .
Covid time may not be bear phase, but it was definitely a crash. Liquidity grabs arent of this magnitude and that too on indices. It was an uncertain time, that led to panic sellout. More sentimental than technical.
Ok
@@Razrman okay sir thank you so much.
Alokbhai any Plan for Global Small Case for small Retailer from your company
Let's hope so
Sir Market is waiting for removing weak hands before next rally
Hope so
huge respect to you sir!
Tks
Sir, its great bull run , & its continuous after budget , without any doubt its great bull , its bigger then ever
Ok
Excellent Alokji 🎉
Thanks
Nav portfolio perform etc
My strategy:
Follow the rule. No sentimental attachment to stock (rather to GF only).😅
Great rule
Whenever weekly options are closed market will be 16000 to 18000
Ok
The base was much lower in previous bull runs
It is always lower in orv ones
Awesome analysis Alok👌
Tks
Thank you very much for the information
So nice of you
Sir before covid how many people had internet in mobile with paytm? Now a days even a rickshaw wala taking money through paytm! Investing in share market has become so handy and easy that everyone is now investing in share market! Bank fd rates sucks, people have no other option left other than investing in share market!
Ya
Mark my work after budget Nifty will by 25000 + 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Any Logic please Sir?
Cool
Great work Alok, thanks!
Glad you liked it!
Keep in mind how much fii invested in businesses in india😊
Ok
Trading window is like 50 share buyer and 30 share seller
I think a crash is imminent anytime now. The phenomenal returns that small and midcaps are giving is not good for economy and businesses who are actually working day in day out to maintain good businesses. There is no more incentive for hardwork if you can just put money into small caps and double or triple your capital.
50-60% CAGR in individual stocks is one thing , whole indices giving these kind of returns is madness...
It'll be warm until it burns...
Ok
Love you Alok ji 🙏
More upside to come in the next decade...
for sure !
❤❤ everyone whistle blowing about bear market cycle, only today I've opened my mind about bullmarket cycle 😊 great experience thank you.
Fantastic!
Great learning sir
Thanks and welcome
Today being a auspicious day, would like to thank you for the learnings you impart to all the Investors out in the Indian market.
I believe there will certainly be a correction but Bull Run is here to stay.
Maintaining Discipline as per laid out Exit plans. Totally agree with the 2 Asset classes u mentioned today Sir.
It's my pleasure
6:55 , 25k , 50k , 75k , 1L during 1988 - 1992 is not even imaginable. Most of the Indians were getting salaries within 2000 - 3000 rs during that time.
Missing the point
Love it.. ❤ great content
Glad you enjoy it!
Excellent video ❤
Thank you very much!
Excellent 👍
Many thanks
No it’s not a bull run
Elephant run?
@@AlokJain sir, then why only PSU and few large caps are performing… not all the sectors are performing
Upload another video on Dec 2024
There will be a video daily
VERY JUSTIFIED SIR!
Suno sabki karo apni
Always
I have been invested with 20%-40% leverage along with tail risk hedges for last two years. Both leverage and hedge are continuously adjusted to generate significant alpha from volatility. This approach I think reduces the need to balance equity portfolio with other asset classes like gold.
how??
Ok
I always tried and still wanted to time the market. I am a regular viewer and an invester of NNF10. Hope that helps me to change my views and be patient
One size does not fit all