Buy TLT Now? | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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- Опубліковано 25 вер 2024
- Should you buy TLT now or buy individual 20-year & 30-year Treasury Bonds? What are the highest-yielding new issue agency & corporate bonds, plus what are the yield expectations for this week's Treasury auctions - watch on & find out!
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Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
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Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
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Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
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4. Treasury Bills
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Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
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7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
>>>>>>>>>>
Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
>>>>>>>>>>
SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO:
Individual Bonds vs Bond Funds Video: ua-cam.com/video/EReUe8utwqk/v-deo.html
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www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
www.google.com/finance/quote/TLT:NASDAQ
www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
www.fidelity.com/
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I rather concentrate on the 1-4 month T-Bills as long as they continue paying @ 5+%....been doing this for almost 2 yrs...THANKS to Jenn!
First - you do a great job informing us about the Treasury market and how we should invest in Treasuries.
Let me contribute some technical analysis to this discussion.
TLT closed today at 92.52. On July 20, 2020 - almost exactly 4 years ago - TLT closed at 170. 170! TLT has declined quiet a bit since then.
Today, TLT is rising above its 40-day and 200-day moving averages. A close above 94 would be a breakout on the TLT P&F chart.
These are indications of a favorable buying area for TLT. TLT would have no resistance (after breaking 94) until 98.
That would be a capital gain of 6%+ on top of the 3.5% or so coupon.
Your videos have encouraged me to use short-term bills, and I have been getting 5% for some time.
But the T-Bills have no capital appreciation happening, so TLT is attractive.
That, from a happy Diamond NestEgg subscriber who 'thumbs-up' every eagerly anticipated episode.
Thanks for all your work!
Yes please make a video on rates on the longe-end!
Seems like a dangerous time to go long, yes the Fed may cut, but then inflation is still here, either party could continue spending and increasing debt.
Despite knowing about the record current and future debt, the bond market is buying and keeping rates below 5%. It most likely sees economic pain offsetting public spending.
Not unless if rate cuts late July or Sept
yep, much prefer long term TIPS
Looks like rate cuts are coming. So TLT should be good to go
I think it's a great trade, maybe not a great if you plan to hold until maturity.
I'm staying short with T-bills for now. Too much uncertainty and volatility with TLT. It's a crapshoot. I do enjoy gambling, but not with my retirement funds.
Agree that one should generally not gamble with retirement funds
Yes, a video on the behavior of longer term Bo da in light of rate cuts would be of great interest!! ❤
Future feels far too murky, so I'm sticking with short-term stuff (4-13 week). I think we'll get a clearer picture once the election is over and things settle down a bit.
Concur, from same
Thanks for sharing that you prefer to buy individual bonds.
Yes I would love to hear about the long rates and what moves them. Thanks!
TLT looks great to me, looks like the next big trade.
I specifically want to thank you for recording this with the volume up, my iPad is wimpy and often can’t play videos loud enough if I have any amount of background noise.
TLT is still a bargain in my opinion. It is only about 5% from the 2024 YTD lows, with a potential 48% upside (the highs of 2020) thru the next few years, and it pays about 3.8% annual dividend (paid each month at this time). The FED has an expected 96% chance of a September rate cut according to traders. This will likely move some Bond rates lower and the TLT higher. At these levels, there is a much lessened risk, and you get the 3.8% dividend while you hold the ETF. * Please do your own research. This is only an opinion *
I’ll also continue to buy shorter end T-Bills, and remain forever grateful to Jennifer for all her knowledge and guidance thru the years.
Yep. I’m with you. Been buying TLT. and shorting the markets
You are awesome. Super video!
Just found your video on TLT and I just bought $50k TMF hopefully price will go to the moon in 1-2 years
Great informative video. New to your channel, but impressed with your very clear and concise videos.
👍 A video on bear vs bull steepeners explained in your usual clear way would probably be helpful for a lot of people!
Noted - I've added this onto Jennifer's list!
TLT is a swing trade at this point
Very clearly explained such complicated topic. Thank you
Thanks for your videos. They are very helpful and informative
i'm buying some 2 year T-Notes this week - I think it's a good time to lock in a bit longer terms
Thanks for sharing
Not a fan of bond funds. I prefer to buy bonds outright. I am intrigued by the agency bonds though, might look into that.
If fed rate goes to 0 due to upcoming alleged financial crisis, TLT share price for sure +50% minimal. Is that a reasonable expectation if there's a financial crisis?
Nice YTD analysis. Thanks.
TLT has been a horrific investment. You can get 5.3 percent annualized on Treasuries. I'm surprised this is what people here are interested in. You can lose much money if you buy TLT at the wrong time. The risk reward is pretty bad.
If rate cut in July or Sept, TLT might be great
@@georgelien Wow, it only stayed 100 for 1 day, you must know how to hold em and how to fold em, congrats
TLT has been a horrific investment in the past 2 years. However things have changed now. Historically speaking rate cuts have appreciated the value of long term treasuries, we have geopolitical conflicts and the upcoming stock market crash will lead to a flight to safety, which will in turn increase 20 year treasury bills...Youll get the appreciation of the bond + 4.5 yield with a very low risk. Make no mistake, this is a trade, not a hold to maturity investment. How is that not a good deal?
@@wheatandtares9764ppl don’t understand that . Bonds have been out of favor for years because of easy money and perpetual bull. “This time it’s different “
Just DCA.
TMF
Thanks
Yea. TMF is insane on volatility. But if rates are going up… is it the best play?
@@SurferTy appreciate your expert opinions
Thank you for all your clear and detailed information. I just started following you. Yes, I'd like more info on longer treasury etfs. I recently bought a modest amount of EDV from Vanguard for speculation/capital gains. I'm confident interest rates will go down over the next year. I've also started buying-laddering into IBT(H-M) etfs for my IRA instead of directly buying Treasury notes for my shorter term income needs. A decent alternative to a direct ladder build? I've been retired for a few years.
I’m extending to 3 year bills. Locked in 4.5% at last auction. Still keeping some 5% plus short term notes to see what next auction looks like. I think longer end will stabilize here or even go up when they start cutting short end. Going to be inflationary again after they cut and the debt load is unsustainable.
Jennifer,
Yes, I would enjoy your take on the “normalizing” of the yield curve(ie the int/longer end as the shorter end drops. For example, would the longer end stay stable as the short end drops and un-inverts the curve or will both ends move at the same time(short-down, long-up)?
Thank you,
Rob
Hi Rob & Cindy,
I've added this onto Jennifer's list, but FYI, she answered the question on a high-level in tonight's member live (around minute 6): ua-cam.com/users/liveUMiB8opppdk?si=21hySTcLLGSVEG1w&t=362
Best,
Eva
@@DiamondNestEgg Eva, thanks. I couldn’t do live but will be watching later today. No need to re-answer the question. Thanks
Thank you, I’m buying the 42 day CMB.
i have TLTW ( buy write on tlt)
How can I get help to understand more about the IBTP ETF (iShares iBonds Dec 2034 Term Treasury ET)?
not until we close and break out from it's 52 week ema ... it's on the list 👍
Just set up a 5 year treasury ladder at Schwab. Average rate 4.45%
Good Lady, thank you.
TMF not TLT ;)
Please do the video on rate cuts on short end affect long end tstes
It's also a hedge for gold assets
aside from collecting the 3.6% dividend, TLT is really a gamble on direction of the long bond, which is the hardest thing in the world of finance to predict. You can literally trade the long bond with 100-1 leverage, and if it were easy to predict every kid with an iPad would be out there getting rich.
Amen…
If you buy long bonds (20-30 years) with a "hold to maturity" and rates rise, you will fall into the same trap as the banks that have, and are going insolvent. If the bond vigilantes come back, this is a real possibility long rates may indeed rise. Also, it's nice to know you don't need your money for 20-30 years. LOL
Rates are not going to go UP
@@SurferTy time will tell. Never say never ;-)
@@rodmarshall6747 of course one day. But NOT TODAY!!
About 3 years ago , Harry Dent was pushing TLT, it was 150.00 per share at the time. Glad I didnt listen to the man........
I read in Bloomberg this morning that Mnuchin, resurected of year bonds and is now agreeing they should stop auctioning. If this actually hapens what would happen to TLT holder?
I’ll add this one onto Jennifer‘s video list - thanks. Eva
TLT is designed for (options) traders gambling on expected rate change. If that’s your desire TLT is ideal but otherwise buy the notes directly, make near guaranteed return and save paying the state tax on gains you would have to pay on TLT profit.
TLT peaked at $179.70 on 3/1/20 TLT if rates go up and TLTW if rates go down?
I heard Buffet owns more Treasurys than the Fed... /shrug ETA: this was a fairly recent move IIRC
@Jennifer. I tried to join the Member live Q& A today, 07/22/24 at 2:30 or 2:45 pm PST. I could not find the link to join. Where can I easily find that link in the future. I logged into both the Bond Beginners and Masters courses in hopes to finding them there but I also could not find them there.
Hi there!
Here is the link for the replay of the member live: ua-cam.com/users/liveUMiB8opppdk
You can also find all the member lives in our Bond Beginners & Bond Masters courses under the section "UA-cam Member Lives"
We also put the link in our weekly emails. I hope this helps for the future.
Best,
Caitlin
Since I don't try to time the market (stocks or bonds or pork bellies) I wouldn't buy TLT now and bet on the come.
Actually, I'm thinking of shorting treasury bonds now, esp if Powell starts cutting rates.
Stuck on stupid
It’s literally the opposite omg. Rates cut = tlt up
@@connorbrown7682yeah damn he
In the intermediate to long term, Powell cutting short rates, could be a contributing factor to intermediate to long term inflation. And thereby eventually lead to higher short rates. So, if that happens, it could be a wise move now to short bonds, like @carefulconsumer may do.
"Be fearful when others are greedy" and vise versa... I've heard that someplace before 😉
@@Chiphikes Hard to see Fed starting to raise rates.
I bought 10k in ibonds in May of 2022'. Just now accessed my account since purchase. Is there a way I can roll those over into another TD investment? I only see the option to purchase from my bank account. Must I cash the ibond in first? Remedial question, I understand, but any assistance would be appreciated.
yes, you must cash it in first, taking the hit on 3 months of interest. I hold mine b/c I believe next 5 years will be huge inflation as soon as the war heats up in the fall. Holding it rather than cashing in allows max deposit each year and higher cumulative total.
do banks ever call in cd's when not call protected?
Yes
0.15% ????? no thanks!
Do you pay a State Tax on capital gain if TLT goes up?
Hi Alex,
Jennifer answered this in today's member (starts at around minute 47): ua-cam.com/users/liveUMiB8opppdk?si=lQiikygkR1rD9Fcj&t=2830
Best,
Eva
Please show me how to check the auction results on Treasury Direct. I have tried but seems like not getting the right link. Thanks.
Here you go: www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/
@@DiamondNestEgg I have that link. What I am asking is where do I find the results after they were posted on TD. For example, investment rate for 1 & 2 months were 5.363 & 5.377 issue date 7-16-24 on TD. The results you had were 5.48 & 5.52, where can I find these results on TD? Thanks.
@@tammynguyen4936 Jennifer covered this in the member live today (minute 4): ua-cam.com/users/liveUMiB8opppdk?si=L5akff88c9A0Dcm3&t=255
Best,
Eva
@@DiamondNestEgg Thank you Eva for letting me know and will check the replay. I'm usually not able to view the video during the regular scheduled live time.
I don't buy treasuries. I have lost more money on bonds than any investments I have made. The only way to invest is to buy U.S. treasuries or insured fixed income, and hold until maturity.
Isn't BND better than TLT? 0.03% vs 0.15% on Expense Ratio. I think both can make some short term gain on the coming rate cut(s). But not likely a big pop. As stated long term rates will remain high for some time to come. Because of the continued demand from debts of all kinds. Needless to talk about refinancing on long term debts once they are due. Spending cuts and higher taxes are the only way out.
The treasury is refinancing/expanding its debt heavily at the short end of the treasury curve, which artificially holds down long term interest rates. If that stops, lookout. TLT and long bonds have risks, in spite of short end fed rate cuts
I have over 500 shares of TLT and will not be selling any until I've held my shares for at least one year and TLT reaches 110 again. I'm thinking that at the end of the interest rate easing cycle, TLT should be somewhere between 115 and 120. I don't think it will go much above 120 unless the Fed sets rates below 2.5%
If the fed aggressively cutting rates to desperately reviving the job market. I think TLT can soar up to $180
TLT or TLTW??
So, you are saying nobody knows if TLT will go up or not. Do you know if it will go down? Or, let me revise my question. What is the likelihood of TLT going to $80 in the next 12 months. And, if it does, would you buy it at $80? Once you answer those questions, you will then know if you want to sell the $80 Put contract of July 2025! 😉
I think it would only go to 80 if the fed changes their stance and says they are holding for the foreseeable future. And possibly raising rates.
But this is not reality.
@@SurferTy Yep. With what we saw last week, TLT $80 is almost impossible.
TLT will be in the mid-80 range by January, so if you want to be a bag-holder go ahead and take a plunge
Why?
It can’t continue to yield 3.6% while other government bonds pay 5pct. give or take…there is no point to be in it unless you play the derivative game, give me any other reason why?
@@dimitrismolevski9696 thanks
@@dimitrismolevski9696 thanks for your expert opinions
@@dimitrismolevski9696 Because people don't expect rates to be up for decades...