Will it be the best-selling console ever? (Plus fixing Nintendo's spreadsheet error)
Вставка
- Опубліковано 27 вер 2024
- Exactly what is says on the tin: this video will explore whether Switch will ultimately be the number 1, beating out the PS2.
Consolidated Sales figures - www.nintendo.c...
Thanks to @paperluigi6132 for the suggested video!
fyi, talking in "tens of thousands" is, in fact, the natural way of thinking about big numbers in Japanese. Because instead of splitting numbers into groups of three, like in English (thousand, million, billion), in Japanese, you use groups of four digits.
万 ("man") = ten thousand
1万 = 10,000
10万 = 100,000
100万 = 1,000,000
1000万 = 10,000,000
You only move one level up after 9999万, from 万 to 億 (oku)
1億 = 100,000,000
Great explanation - thank you! I've pinned your comment for people's reference.
I still don't see how it's intuitive:p
I think if they keep selling the Switch 1 as a budget option for a few years (or even just the lite) its completely guaranteed. In these tough economic times combined with its legendary library, it'll be an enticing option for both cash strapped parents and gamers. Heck I could see it hitting even 180 million if they cut the price of Switch 1 games along with it.
Mind you this is assuming the Switch 2 costs 400 or more as reported.
I'd be shocked if it wasn't the "budget option" for at least the first two or three years considering that the NES was still getting some support four years after the Super Nintendo came out. I bring up the NES and Super Nintendo as they seem to be the most natural comparison point for the Switch and Nintendo's next system. I think we will see a price drop on the Switch and Switch Lite either this holiday season or at the time Nintendo announces their new system next year.
I think it’s really stupid that we might not ever know what the best selling video game console of all time is just because Sony refuses to be concrete about their numbers
Don't worry Nintendo is on their way to 170 mil w this thing.
So in other words we just need to buy a couple more Switch consoles. We can do this people!
Jim Ryan is a liar. His reputation and credibility has gone down the drain during his reign as CEO. That 160 million Playstation 2 sales was just Sony moving goal posts, in my opinion.
He's probably gonna inflate it to 165 m before actually retiring, citing "wrong stats."
Exactly. Jim Ryan is a FUCKING LIAR and absolutely NOTHING he says should *EVER* be taking with any amount of trust
160 million was to be rounded up by 10 since the ps2 had the unofficial 158.7m
The recorded number has been 156 million for the last decade, so that’s the number for the Switch to beat, no but’s about it Sony!
I've argued this in so many comment threads, if it doesn't appear in official public company records then it doesn't exist, unless Sony declare the 160 million figure in their company reports no-one should take any notice of it
0:06 MOM I’M ON TV!!
But seriously, thanks for doing my idea.
Thanks for the idea!
Yes, but Nintendo doesn't care about such titles. DS came close too, but Nintendo killed it for the 3DS and didn't even try.
Ok
I think the DS was cut short because of smartphones. The 3DS was Nintendo trying to compete against the iPod Touch or similarly priced smart devices (and kinda lost), with dedicated game devices becoming a bit of a niche compared to decades ago. You didn't need to be a "gamer" to have a Game Boy or a Wii, but if you went out of your way to buy a 3DS or a Switch is because you're more into games than your regular iOS/Android enjoyer.
The truth is that it's more common to see a kid playing Roblox on their phone than someone playing Mario Odyssey on their Switch. That's why it was so important for Nintendo to expose their IPs to amusement parks and movies; it's not a given anymore that kids will buy a Game Boy to play their games portably, and there's an entire generation in the making that bought a Switch because they went to see the Mario movie.
Imagine if Nintendo starts the direct this week by dropping the price of all current switch models by $50. They’d hit number 1 so quickly
PS2 was down to $120 MSRP seven years in. Switch hasn’t even seen a single price cut and it’s still competing. If Nintendo wants the crown, it’s theirs to take. That’s why I fully expect a substantial price cut for this holiday season.
Drop it by 100 and it’s a guarantee
I'll get an OLED model if they do that.
I will get another one if it happens. I want another model but couldn't justify the expense.
Inflation means it’s dropping in price all the time
Nintendo could easily accomplish this by reducing the price of the switch 1 and packing in a game for holiday bundles like previous consoles. But I don't see them doing that without a successor already on store shelves as well.
It’s without a doubt hitting the 156m mark, there is no question. It will be the disputed best selling console ever. The tricky part is that 160m mark. There is no chance that in less than a year, Sony shipped over 5 million units, when in the previous full year WITHOUT a fully revealed ps4 it sold less than that. 160 million is when switch has it for certain.
I could see their statistics being wrong or something, but Sony saying that right when people started talking about the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time smells of a very transparent lie to me.
@@EnigmaticGentleman I bet it’s around 157m, which can feasibly be rounded up to 160m
I think the 160m mark came as Sony stopped reporting PS2 sales a few years before they ended it. So they stopped at 155 million consoles, but knew they were selling hundreds of thousands, perhaps a a million or so, for years afterwards that added up to the 5 million or so extra,
I think even if Nintendo slightly miss their 13.5 million target this year, they should hit 160 million by 2028 or 2029. 12 million sold by march 2025 will be about 153 million in march 2015. A expected 40% drop would be an 4.8 million for march 2026, making a total of around 158, then 2 million for 160 in march 2027, then 1million for 161 for march 2028. And that's with a poorer than expected 24-25 and f they don't continue to support it for 3 more years after the successor and assuming the successor comes out march 2025.
@@danielebowman It was discontinued in 2012, and they only count units shipped, not sold. It wouldn’t keep selling for “years afterward”
It had less than one year to go from 155 million to an unknown amount as its final total.
@@minecrafter344810% of ps2 sales were for dvd sales. It was proven through surveys
On of the best episodes ever! Thank you for breaking this down for us stat nerds.
According to Sony itself, they manufactured exactly 160,636,885 PS2s. If they sell more than that, it's guaranteed to be the best-selling console of all time.
According to LYING INC. itself. Jim Ryan and PlayStation are known LIARS.
Manufacturing vs sold products are different
@@therealjaystone2344 Isn't that exactly the point of this post? If it sells 160,636,886 or more it is undoubtedly the best selling console ever, because Sony can't have sold more if they didn't manufacture those. So if Switch hits that there's no possibility of PS2 having sold more, even if we don't know the sales numbers of PS2.
Is there a source for this? Just curious.
@@gordonfisken8349 It's a plaque in SIE's headquarters. It reads:
"In memory of PS2 last production. Produced 160,636,885 pcs during Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2013."
I know this sounds impossible but Nintendo could re-release some of the older smash games considering the fact that this year is the 25th anniversary of Super Smash Bros.
If not then that's perfectly fine
If they sell the 13.5m that they forecasted for this FY, and continue to sell Nintendo Switch for atleast 3 and half years after the Switch 2 is out, I think the Switch will reach and/or surpass the 165m mark.
If they get 13.5 million units this year, they would hit 155 million units. It wouldn’t take 3.5 more years to sell another 5-10 million.
@garvensman this us under the assumption that switch sales fall off a cliff post switch 2 launch
13.5m for FY 2025 seems really aggressive when they’ve only sold 600,000+ in April, and are on track to sell 500,000+ in May 2024. That said, last years Switch sales were propelled by the TOTK Switch variant, and we have a similar Zelda:EOW variant coming in Sept 2024, so let’s see how that goes. We may still see 13.5 million yet.
Nintendo needs to drop the price and resell old Switch games for 30bucks.
Switch will easily surpass PS2. It hasn’t had a price drop yet. It will get one and sell alongside Switch 2 for a year or two, and go over 160 million.
There isn't really any doubt at this point. It's like a hair away from the milestone, the decline since 2020 has yet to become steep, and it still has a guaranteed minimum of two years of support left. Also, I can very easily imagine a new three-tier system where the successor console costs $350 at launch, they discontinue the base model Switch, and they drop the price of the OLED and Lite by $50 each.
Nice work! Switch OLED sales have been up year on year since release. I think this will be the first year of decline for that SKU, and will probably won’t be steep. That being said I think your forecast is correct. If there are price drops, it will easily sell even more.
Totally agree with this. I think it'll reach the magic number by 27-28 and then Sony will suddenly revise their Ps2 numbers and add as many extra sales as needed. 😂
Great channel, love your work!
Wow you and I use similar methods to breakdown the switch's chances of being the best selling console.
Seeing as how the next direct is right around the corner this month we might see a boost in sales if they have some really good games to show off.
I think Switch will get to 160M during 2026 😀, 2027 at worst and 2025 at best case scenario 👀
I bet it will be on shelves until 2028.
Worth pointing out that the PS2 was "only" around 110-115 million in 2006 when the PS3 came out and crawled the rest of the way to 155-160 million after its successor was already on the market. I think Switch will crawl past the PS2 at some point even if it doesn't by the time the Switch 2 is out.
I could see a world in which Nintendo basically discontinues Switch basic and Switch OLED but continues selling the Switch Lite, maybe with a $50 price cut, as the handheld for kids. Given the Switch's absolutely gigantic library the Switch Lite turning into a GBA or DS-like cheap handheld that people keep using long after the Switch itself is outdated would make a ton of sense.
Nintendo has a habit of dropping its old consoles pretty fast. Honestly, it's more a question of whether they'll treat it like a console or a handheld, because handhelds tend to linger a bit longer.
@@JonSmith-hk1bq Which is why I think they drop the Switch and the OLED but keep the Lite around as their new "handheld." They don't want the Switch and the Switch OLED competing with their new console but the Lite will be an incredible budget option.
@@pattersong6637 That's always a possibility.
I’ve been looking forward to a video like this one from you
Nice video, thanks again for your wonderful journalism. I've been following if the Switch will overhaul the PS2 for a while now myself.
It'll be interesting, as it's the first time Nintendo have had only one console to sell in a generation, will the drop off be different? It does seem there is some consistency that the Switch will probably be likely being dropping to 35-40% of previous years sales when the successor is launched for 3 years afterwards. It should be added the PS2 had an unusual long life as it was selling until 2014, largely a cheap console for poorer markets like South America. A tactic that Nintendo could take note of should they want to to widen their global base.
What will be interesting though is the Switch has never really had a price drop, unlike virtually all other prior consoles. It could have a big boost to the sales should Nintendo decide to do as such. A significant one could make it a cheap alternative, if Nintendo are willing, and with Nintendo's evergreen 1st party titles getting a price drop to match, that could be significant.
Is it possible that you could do some analysis on the impact of price drops on console sales? Perhaps with some breakdown on their impact both in the middle of a consoles life and near the end? Perhaps how significant the price drop can affects sales? Or even how price drops affect sales in different countries or regions? That could be really interesting.
Great idea. It'll be a while but I'll definitely give this a look. Thanks! (And I think the potential to use the OG Switch to crack poorer markets PS2-style is very interesting too).
I'm betting they're trying to beat the record before they reveal the switch 2.
I wonder what kind of bump the Zelda themed Switch Light will give Switch sales numbers?
I think the Switch is very likely to be the highest selling game console of all time, but won't be highest selling home console. The Switch Lite doesn't count for that second achievement.
That's a good point.
I would have said it would depend on how they handle the successor (and still suspect that’s true, by and large), but it seems like unless they *actively* kill production and sales (much like they did with the Wii U to Switch), the chances of a long tail, late adopters, cheap prices and cross gen games (and any potential hardware iterations) - it seems super likely to hit this number in the end.
Great video! Loved the spreadsheets (biased as I may be towards them haha)
If Nintendo hits 13 million Switchs this year then I don’t see a world where the Switch doesn’t sell more than 6 million in 2025.
The Switch will continue to get new games until 2027-2028, it is guaranteed to outsell the PS2.
I hope so
yes. easily.
can’t wait for the post nintendo direct video
Will the Switch get a price drop? The Switch 2 is going to be expensive (for a Nintendo console.) They could happily keep the Switch as a cheaper option for Nintendo gaming (and there is always a market for that with kids.) without creating a two console split. Nintendo will still make arcadey games. It's in their DNA. Games that don't need a next gen, but will likely be 4K on it. They could ship enough units to get them over the line and conclude they have sold them all when no one can find them on shelves lol.
What makes you think it's gonna be expensive? I think it'll be £400 max.
@@Loundsify YEah, that's expensive lol. Current Switch is £270. Wth?
Is it expensive when the PS5 is £450 for disk drive? Minimum wage has risen massively.v
@@Loundsify Yeah. Playstation isn't some weird baseline lol.
@@hellsong23 I'd put money on it costing £400 in the UK. Sorry £399 🤣
Finding out that the PS2 realistically CAN'T be 160 million shows up as follows: With march 31 2012 PS2 was at 155,1 million units SHIPPED! Thats an ice cold fact! Sonys own documents show it! After that it had 9 months and 13 days left until production ceased on january 13 2013! We know that 16,5 million PS2 and PS3 where shipped through that time! Its entirely impossible for Sony to ship more than an aditional 4 million units because 160 million lifetime mean 4,9 million PS2s shipped in 2012/13! That would be as much as the Wii this year and that did not happen for sure!! Why discontinue a console selling 5 million+ a year?! That would mean Sony only shipped 11,5 million PS3s in that time giving the possibility that Xbox360 sold more in total than PS3- so the 87,4 million number would have to be ajusted down by at least 1 million if not more. Because Xbox 360 sold through 84 million+ units by june 2014- thats what microsoft announced. We do not know total Xbox 360 numbers till April 2016 (discontinued) TODAY! Suma sumarum: The PS2 cannot be at 160 million- this number is clearly rounded up! I highly doubt they shipped exactly 160,00 million units without even mentioning it in 2013! Because Switch will most likley be in this ballpark lying Ryan comes out 11 years late to the party! Redicolous😂
I have a video request, can we get a video on what the new developer for Mario and Luigi could be? Could it be in house?
Great idea.
Great video! If you have the time, could you do an analysis on Nintendo's growth in Asian markets such as Korea and Taiwan this generation and their increasing role for Nintendo?
Great suggestion. I doubt I'll get to it for a while but I will add it to my list.
Thank you for showing the data and comparisons with previous consoles to see if there is a path for Switch to become the best-selling console in history.
Did you mention if Nintendo has an ace up its sleeve? I will answer: Yes, although we do not know what the ace up their sleeve will be, it is a fact that Nintendo has been unpredictable since its inception, regardless of the statistics, data, predictions and previous comparisons.
I will mention a brief phrase from former Nintendo president Hiroshi Yamauchi about the Nintendo DS in 2004 that may give a clue as to what Nintendo plans for Switch starting this year, even if the Switch successor comes out in 2025: ''The next two years will be a really crucial time for Nintendo."
I think it could get to 200 mill by the end of next year
Great forecast, you’re hired
@@minecrafter3448ok?
@@minecrafter3448😂
@@minecrafter3448 Yeah!
I think a few things need to happen to meet that goal, firstly is at least one more big tentpole game needs to be announced at the June direct, a price drop if $50-$100, and backwards compatability with the switch successor.
If the successor console has forwards compatability, and by that I mean if switch 2 can not just play switch games but can play switch games at a higher resolution and better frame rates then Nintendo can angle the current switch as a budget option along side the new switch, and many new games can be cross gen releases, with Nintendo keeping it going for several years, phasing it out with a mid generation console update, then bumping the 1st gen switch 2 into the budget slot.
Doing that would also make a switch 2 lite redundant, so if this was Nintendo's strategy I'd give 70% odds that we don't get a handheld only switch 2. I think the lite was a slight misstep on Nintendo's part, the core idea of having a lower cost model is good, but completely ripping out dock support diluted the message, when nintendo could have sold a handheld only switch that could later be upgraded by purchasing a dock and controller.
I can see what you mean. I think the functionally wasn't there to keep the price low. Personally I prefer my Lite over my Switch, but that has to do with the ease of taking it with you and not having to unplug the dock to have a charger etc.
I could see them trying to convince us the Switch 2 is part of the "Switch family of systems" and bundling the sales of those together with the Switch 1.
The Switch is already the king of consoles. They don't need the record.
11:12 WOW what an edit
Well if the record stands still I think It can pass. In this last interview Jimmy found 5 million more ps2 from his ass, and increased the ps2 number to 160 million.
This direct and if we get a price drop will probably be the determite.
Average to weak support for games 20%
Price drop only 40%
Strong support for games (at least 2 big games) 50%
2 big games and price drop 70%
Lite $99
Switch $199
Switch OLED $249
Very bold if they did a flat price drop of this scale. The margins on the OG and Lite are (or were for the first couple of years at least) better than the OLED but then again if they end up producing fewer of any of them, that would be costlier so they might be better discontinuing the OG.
150 for lite, 250 Oled, 200 regular
But, Nintendo can do same prices but Free 3-5 Games.
I think they discontinue the original Switch and do 150 Lite as the equivalent of their old handhelds. Cheap and has a gigantic library, perfect for kids. OLED probably gets phased out eventually too, but later than the Switch.
Its not really important but it would be cool.
I think a better comparison would be the PS4, which had cross-platform releases and is still selling incredibly well due to the library and the budget price point.
I think it will only fail to reach this, if the Switch 2 is $299 and has plenty in stock. There would be no reason to buy a switch 1... maybe a switch lite as a cheaper option.
Which inflation wouldn’t let it happen to remain at $300
I can see the Switch being sold into 2017 tbf.
Well sorry to inform everyone but Nintendo DS has had that title fir years.😂
Did you have the split sales for hardware of each DS system?
Thanks in advance!
They state 154.02m DS consoles of which 93.86m are DS Lite, 28.44m were DSi and 12.93m were DSi XL which, although they don't give a bespoke figure oddly enough, leaves 18.79 million as original DS systems.
@@nintendoforecast Many thanks!!
Goated forecast video. Don't forget to like and subscribe to get him to 10k subscribers!
Thank you so much!
I doubt it
I want a late ugly Nintendo switch TV that works the same as the PS Vita TV with a price drop.
Could happen. I remember the Wii mini
The Switch 2 certainly has its work cut out, that's all I can say.
Dude Nintendo’s second consoles always sell far less than there first. Not even Sony could come close to the PS2. Switch 2 will probably sell Wii numbers at best.
@@ZackSNetworkyeah which is why I think they’re going to have to double down on online services to maintain profit acceleration
Ryan’s comment don’t mean much. Its so easy to lie on a podcast and that’s probably what happened there.
I wonder would sony release an updated official report on ps2 sales.
What if they try bringing 3d to switch 😂
Just wait until the price drop 💰💰💰
Yes exactly
Nintendo knows the next switch is prolly gonna cost 400 bucks so I think they will bring most of there titles will be cross gen and OG switch will have more of a budget price
I hope it wins. I love the switch so much, it deserves it
I think it's worth considering that a price drop may not be as viable as a lot of folks are assuming. Remember, the Switch exists during an era of inflation not seen since the 1980s. $300 in 2017 is about $386.47 in today's money. In that sense, we've already received a decent price drop in terms of buying power just by treading water on the price point.
Have the components of a Switch dropped that much over the years? Some might have, such as the internal memory. But most of it probably hasn't moved all that much. And it wouldn't shock me if some components have even gone up.
If Nintendo releases the Switch 2 and then a Switch OG lite or something (like 2DS or Red Wii or SNES revision), I could say is guaranteed they will break the record, I mean, I think I would buy it :)))
A few other factors to consider: for Sony and Microsoft, the overlap between the previous console generation and the current were really long. You can still buy a new PS4 at some stores, and they're still making dual releases for many games, so if Nintendo follows suit, the Switch could continue to sell for three more years. Especially if scalpers clean up all the initial shipments.
If Nintendo continues to manufacture Switches for just as long as Sony did the PS4, continue to support it with new releases throughout most of the next generation, and scalpers make the successor hard to get for a while, we could easily see the switch pass 160 or 170 million units. Less likely but not impossible, under the right market conditions they could become the first console to reach 200M.
162 million
Again even more great content! You’ve become my favourite Nintendo channel on UA-cam. Keep up the great work!
Thank you! I appreciate it!
記録を破る軌道に乗っているようだ。
The ten thousands thing on Nintendo's data makes sense given they're a Japanese company, and large numbers are named in Japanese as if the comma occurred every four digits rather than every three, though they don't actually write it that way. It's common for large numbers in Japanese-language contexts to be written as Arabic numerals followed by 万, meaning that many ten thousands.
That explains seeing Japanese footage of Persona, Yakuza, etc.
Thank you for explaining!
if they release a streamlined version of the switch this year and call it the "switch mini", yes.
if not, it will be difficult to sell another 15-20 million units. sales will collapse once the switch 2 is released.
To be honest I do not think Nintendo even cares about the record. Nintendo had a honest shot with the DS and pulled the plug without a second though when they were ready for the 3DS. If Nintendo wanted the record they could have done price drops on the Switch like the PS2 which had five of them in the US to bring the cost down from $299 to $99. Moreover, the PS2 sold 45 million consoles between 2007 - 2013 which was the entire time the PS3 was Sony's primary product on the market. I do not see Nintendo doing any of this so there is a chance but I would not count on the Switch outselling the PS2.
They dont. Theyre just holding off on the Switch successor due to the yen's current status. But breaking PS2's record is an additional dessert if they did.
Most of those sold in Brazil
@@Loundsify How is where the PS2s sold supposed to make a difference to the record? That is like saying Steph Curry is not a profilic scorer because he hit a lot of 3 pointers. Those sales led to the 160 million estimate we have for the PS2 record we have today.