Hey Jeff, I’m an 18 year old, fresh out of highschool and starting college this fall. I’ve saved up around $5,500 from part time jobs that I’ve got spread into mostly QQQM an SMH, I’m all in on tech & semiconductor growth as I believe it has been the driving factor of the market and will not be disappointing any time soon. Today my portfolio has hit $6,500 after only half a year and I am very proud to say this is the start in my investing journey, I plan to stay tech/growth focused until the market trend changes, from then I will rebalance if needed and continue compounding my wealth 🙂
That is incredible! You are worlds ahead of where I was at your age. I didn't know the first thing about investing for another decade at that point (: Be sure to stay the course when technology takes a dive. You never want to sell low. When everyone else is running during a huge crash, that is when you buy more. Dollar cost average into your portfolio for decades and you will be one happy camper. Great work starting the journey at an early age. Compound interest will work wonders for you.
Thanks for all the comparison data in your HODL unveiling. I also want to note you add a lot of details in your answers to many comments. Thanks for all the time you put into these videos and responses.
Hey Charlie. You're welcome. Thank *you* for taking the time to watch the video and leave a comment. I appreciate your support of the channel over its first year so far.
Great mix. Over the last 24 months, my RRSP has gained 56.3%, with my TFSA gaining 83.3%. My non-registered account +155%. We can only achieve this with individual stock picks in most cases. Appreciate your videos, Jeff.
I was blown away by that too. Again, to be clear, I didn't have the HODL Factory back then. I'm sure some, but not all, would have been included if I did. I don't want credit for something that didn't actually happen. Still wild. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next crash.
Thanks for the feedback. I noticed that too. I'm thinking about making a more advanced spreadsheet to track total return and dividend payments for custom timeframes. Something that combines unrealized and realized gains to truly compare to the market for any stretch of time. Maybe throw in turnover and taxes, but that will be added in time. For now I'm just looking at the default time periods available on M1.
Thanks Oldrin. I appreciate the kind words. I hope to in the future. It is my goal that I'm willing to put money into once I feel comfortable with my results (it is not cheap to get started and maintain).
Thank you Jeff, great channel! This mix is pretty amazing and a testament to your passion for investing. Curious to see some sectors missing e.g. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities. Were these omitted by the HODL algorithm or were they excluded for other reasons? For those intrepid investors who are wanting to experiment with you, would you be in favor of including HODL in our own portfolios?
Hey David. Thanks for the questions. We do not exclude any sectors in our process. However, we also do not require exposure to any sectors either. We did add a ceiling of 20% recently (we were heavy in tech and financials before that). This caused quit a bit of turnover in our most recent quarterly update. I think 8 of the companies were new (I'm not looking at it, just can't remember if it was 7, 8, or 9 lol). But now with caps in place and a 'score grace factor' added for companies already in the mix, we expect a lot lower turnover each quarter. I would not recommend investing in the HODL Factory yet, personally. I think it needs to prove itself over a longer period of time. I am investing in it, of course, as I work out the methodology for the future. Right now, as an outsider, I would take a wait and see approach.
Hello Jeff, I have a question now that part of the market is at historical highs, I still do dca en voo qqqm spyg schd and dgro or at these prices do I stop any of them and give more importance to one in particular waiting for a correction in the market thanks for the value you bring us
Hey Juan. I'm a fan of dollar cost averaging into the market at all times regardless of the value. Usually we continue to hit all-time highs in spurts. It can, and will, go down eventually. But VGT felt high at 400 (I know someone waiting to buy before 400). And 450, and 500, and 550, and 600, etc. I think a good way to counter-balance a high market is to stick to your target allocations. In other words, buy the holding that has become underweight in your portfolio with your next contribution. For example, I've done nothing but buy SCHD lately. VGT has outperformed it, and I have needed to buy SCHD to get the portfolio back in balance. For me, I like an even mix of VOO, VGT, and SCHD. When I add new dollars to the portfolio, I buy the one that is worth the least amount of money. This helps to 'automatically buy the market dips' over time.
Fascinating! Can't wait to invest in HODL Factory someday... Great video. Question: I'm a JEPQ fan for income as I know you are. What are your thoughts on SPYI as a comparable covered call ETF for S&P?
Thanks for watching and for the confidence in me (: Great question. I am not a huge fan of SPYI. I know it is a very popular ETF that has a high dividend yield. I can't get past the 0.68% expense ratio. Core funds will outperform dividend producers over long-stretches of time. For example, QQQM is a better 'long-term' hold than JEPQ. VOO is a better long-term hold than JEPI or SPYI. For a young investor seeking total returns. The premium income comes at the cost of limiting the growth potential of the fund. That said, we love JEPQ like funds for cash-flow. They also provide a more stable floor for the portfolio by comparison. JEPQ will generally fall less than QQQM in a bad market, for example. VOO has a total return (dividends and expense ratio included) of 43.94% to SPYI's total return of 29.16% since inception. Again, it is not about 'beating the market' with cash flowing assets. But, the high expense ratio is a tough compounder. JEPQ at 0.35% is reasonable for an actively managed fund. My absolute ceiling is 0.50%. That is just a me thing, not a hard rule.
@@JeffTeeples Thanks, Jeff. It's been fun using the Retirement Dividend Projector spreadsheet to play with allocations and "what ifs." My husband just retired at 58, and it might be the same for me next year...we shall see how this year goes. 🙂 Thanks for all you do!
Finally, the HODL factory is revealed. Been waiting for this one! So cool, thanks for sharing. You inspire me with confidence to keep investing, Jeff. Big fan of your channel🎉
Hey William. I'm glad you liked it! I appreciate the support you have given to the channel by watching and commenting. I think this will be a fun journey to share with people. It will take me a while to be sold on it (it is still only 1% of my overall portfolio right now), but I do think I can run a great ETF for income growth some day. Will it beat the market 'every year'? Probably not. But if I can create a stable floor with wild dividend growth I think it would work well.
Big fan Jeff❤ since watching your videos I’ve sold off the large majority of my individual stocks/losers & went heavy in Vgt,SCHD, qqqm, soxx. It’s only been a few months but I’m up quite a bit. But I know a pullback is coming, I already know the answer, but in order to realize the gains should I trim or keep dollar cost averaging and when the dip happens double down… thanks for everything you’ve changed my investing in such a positive way
I love that you have moved into simple solutions for your portfolio. I do the same thing (HODL Factory is currently only 1% as I figure it out) to grow long-term stable wealth. A crash will hit us eventually, no doubt. I wish I had a crystal ball to know when (: I think it is good to dollar cost average in during a crash. Never sell low if you don't absolutely have to. For those blessed enough to keep their job during a major crash, I would say cost average *more* in during the crash. Buy up the shares when everyone else is running. Specifically, I would buy the holdings that have crashed the most. If we buy to our target allocations we will do well long-term (assuming the holdings are all solid in the first place). If tech crashes hard, for example, I'll load up on buying more VGT compared to SCHD. It will get VGT back up to its proper weighting in my portfolio. It's a way to automatically 'buy the dip' without having to get creative and make any weird gut calls.
Great video Jeff. The TEEPS ETF Group. First fund - HODL Fund. EST. 2025. What a great goal and dream. Wish you the best of luck. I’ll take a prospectus when they are printed or available. lol. Keep up the great work. Love your mindset and drive to succeed. Hope you had a great weekend. Until the next presentation, please be well.
@@JeffTeeplesyou’re more than a dreamer. You’re a doer - otherwise you wouldn’t have made the leap you’ve made. Wishing you the best of luck in those endeavors as well as good health, prosperity and peace.
I'm not sure if Eli Lilly meets the criteria, but I'm starting to set up my own funds like you're doing. Liking what I see out of Lilly. Cheers, Jeff - thanks for everything!
It is so much fun to set up an 'ETF' like this (individual stocks). I will have my modern 3-fund ETF mix make up most of my portfolio for the time being. But I will gain more confidence in time if this thing keeps producing. LLY didn't make the screener for the HODL. Of course, it is not because it is a bad stock. We have a very rigorous process for making the screener. LLY passed almost all of it!
Will do Kevin. Thank you for the consistent support of the channel. Not sure if we will ever take off completely, but I'm loving the process either way.
Jeff, great vid as always. I wonder how you applied stock screener for stock picking? Dis you use stock screener as of current data, then back test the selction from 2012 to now? Or you applied screener as of 2012, 2013, .. each year and rebalance based on screener result each year? If its latter, how do you do that? It means you have access to historocal data and PortfolioVisualizerr allows you to do this type of backtest. Thanks for sharing, again great stuff.
Thank you for watching and for providing positive feedback. I did the back test from 2012 to now with my current holdings. I do not have the data to do the more accurate one (it would be more or less impossible to apply my methodology historically). That is why I had the major disclaimer that I did *not* get this performance. This is hindsight is 20/20 stuff. We'll have better data moving forward, but all can do for now is back test with what I have. I wouldn't have had these specific companies back in 2012. At least not all of them.
@@JeffTeeples Thnaks Jeff. Totally understand that it's almost impossible to apply the methodology historically unless you have access to that data which is normally available to large FIs. ( I know that because I used to help acquire such historical data set for a large Canadian pension fund for their Equity Research department.) Love to watch your followup episods on the performance of this methodology.
Hey Karl. AVGO really has been incredible since I started this project. I'm curious where it will head to in the future. I also can't wait to see how my portfolio does in a down turn. I'm not convinced this will work perfectly yet, there is still a lot to learn.
Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
I'm very happy with my current 10 stock portfolio, but they've outperformed their way to 52% of my overall portfolio. I'm not interested in selling any of them right now, so I've been buying ETFs heavily every week to balance out my portfolio until the market crashes. Once we have an extended downturn, I'll flip back to buying individual stocks.
Very nice Nick. It is always more exciting to see our stocks outperform the indexes. I think it is smart to keep it balanced with your purchasing of the underweight stuff (ETFs in this case). That way it doesn't get too out of control.
Bummed... I love the mix and want to make my own HODL MINI but Schwab Slices does not cover AGM, CSL, FCNCA, HWKN, MLI, RS, TOL, or TPL. All the rest I can buy a fractional share as long as it's $5 or more per purchase. Some of those non-slice tickers are priced to where I could buy a whole share. But FCNCA, and TPL... that's out of range. So I guess it will have to be a 2/3HODL MINI.
Haha, love the HODL MINI. That's awesome. Thank you for watching and for dropping a comment. I will be sure to put out videos each quarter to explain any changes in the holdings. It has been high turnover so far as we work through the methodology each quarter, but long-term we don't foresee as much turnover at all. Thanks for being a channel member. That extra support is awesome. I appreciate it.
Another great video. What are your thoughts on M1 vs Fidelity? Looking to consolidate down from multiple different brokers and on the fence between the two.
Hey Anthony. I think this will depend on the investor. Fidelity is more versatile than M1 Finance for someone that has a lot of accounts (Roth, Traditional, 529s, HSA, Custodial for kids, Solo 401ks for business owners, and many more). If you have a lot of accounts to manage and you will be active with keeping up, Fidelity is the clear winner. It commonly is voted as the best online broker on most sites. M1 is the best, period, for a hands-off, passively, long-term investor that is on autopilot. The 'baskets' at Fidelity are not even sniffing the pies at M1. If you only need a taxable, Roth, and traditional IRA, and nothing extra or fancy, M1 is a great place to set up a system (Boglehead 3-fund, Buffet 2-fund, my modern mix, etc) and pump money in. It will automatically rebalance and track cool return information as well as a bonus. But it is not one of the 'big players' to be sure. A personal note, and this is just a me thing, not a knock on Fidelity: I can't stand the 'look and feel' of it. E*Trade is worlds *cleaner* to me. For example, if you watch my portfolio update videos, notice the 'all accounts' look of E*Trade to see a clean single line of each holding (across all accounts) and a clean single line for average cost, everything in one screen. Attempt that with Fidelity (: These things don't matter for most people. Another big reason I like E*Trade is that it is not in competition with Fidelity, Vanguard, and Schwab as far as having its own ETFs and mutual funds. For example, you can't get VMFXX, the money market, on Fidelity, because you have to go with its much higher cost money market. They say heck no to Vanguard's superior version (consistently returns more net of fees). You have to get the minimum $100,000 one to even get close to VMFXX at Fidelity. To be clear, Fidelity has the best account offerings and is the most flexible. It allows fractional share investing, has baskets, etc. There is a reason it is typically considered the best broker, but like anything, each person will be different.
@@JeffTeeples do you have a latest m1 referral link, I think the ease of use for M1 is what I’m going for, especially to help set up and show my kids how to add money and watch it grow. I wont get down to a single brokerage, although with my current set up that would never be possible, but overtime I think I’d move everything I can over to M1. Would love to make sure you’re getting the referral bonus for it!
Hey Anthony. Sorry for the late reply. I REALLY wish UA-cam would update a way to filter comments. I have to manually seek out replies to replies. Here is my link. I love M1 Finance, personally. m1.finance/qKHE6cu7jKp9 I appreciate it!
Thanks for watching and subscribing. I'm going to be going to one song per video for a while, and a little less volume on it. I like *something* there, but I'll try to make it more chill.
Right!? Just custom tailor that thing to look great in the past (: Kidding of course. That back test was the first one I ever ran (no lie, on screen shares I always go fresh, don't like to script to keep it more natural). When you hear me say 'wow, 5 years in a row of beating the market, crazy' type things, that is legit surprise as I'm seeing it. The only 'pre-look' I do is when I align 'my mix' with my actual portfolio amount (I have to tweak the monthly contribution and starting amount to make it work). But of course I did NOT own these stocks in 2022, so we will see what happens moving forward (:
Haha, the *HUGE* reveal (oh wait, not a lot of money at all) (: Sharing my filters and scoring system is a tough one. As many here know, my 'thing' is to be painfully transparent with the community. I want to *show* that I practice what I preach to ultimately help the most people. I can't stand when people talk out of both sides of their mouth. That said, this process will likely remain proprietary and stay between Hutch and I. It is not to protect me from looking stupid or anything as changes are made. I don't care about that stuff. But it is to protect the underlying methodology as it evolves over time. The long game is to make an ETF that is successful in all markets. This will be an incomplete product for a while, and I don't want to mislead people in the meantime (or have them steal the formulas when it does work and beat me to the punch). It's one of the few things I don't openly share.
Unfortunately it doesn't exist yet. It likely will not exist for a few years. I would never accept funding without having history of it working well for a few years and an ironed out methodology with low turnover. I will announce on the channel (and consistently provide updates) if/when it becomes available in the future. It will be as low-cost as possible. If I crack the code I'm not here to make millions, I'm hear to share a nice dividend growth holding.
I appreciate the positive feedback. Chuckled at wizards. It will take me a long time to feel confident in our methodology to allow others to invest (even at a low-cost). But I will make it known when the day comes! Doing something like this is my 'dream job'. Baby steps (: I know this will not resonate with most and I could be called out for being a liar. But I can genuinely say I will not be doing this for the money. Of course I hope it does well and makes a little extra from gaining investors. But the expense ratio will be as low as humanly possible to make a touch over what it costs long-term. Zero greed / money goals on this one for me. Want a nice fund to grow wealth and cash-flow for people. This thing has low yield, but wild dividend growth. Right now the dividend CAGR is around 18% in the past 5 years. This means the dividends would double every 4 years. Yield on cost: 1.14% yield (as of today, this will not be for cash now) 2.28% in 4 years 4.5% in 8 years 9% in 12 years 18% in 16 years 36% in 20 years 72% in 24 years Of course there is no guarantee that the dividends will grow 'that much' in the future. But the spreadsheet scoring system combined with the screener is pretty... unique. They 'will' grow more than competition in any market (not total returns, but specifically dividends).
@@JeffTeeples - the YOC numbers do get a little too insane looking that far into the future. When looking at SCHD, I used to dial back the CAGR as well as insert one 0% year (growth and dividend payments) every decade. The numbers were still eye popping after that. The market dynamics in 2023 dialed back SCHD's returns for me! What a great buying opportunity. I know you're still working out the details, but are you two leaning to a once a year reconstitution for the Hodl factory or something more fluid?
Hey Charlie. Thanks for the great feedback. To answer your question, right now we are conducting a quarterly reconstitution (full run of screener, spreadsheet scoring, and other logic applied). We have made a lot of changes every quarter, so the turnover is very high right now. The idea is to buy long-term holds. We will still meet once per month to re-run everything, but we will not make as many moves in general (as the methodology stays the same, more of the same companies will show up). The performance has been awesome, but the system has seen major changes every quarter based on new 'ah-ha' moments (:
I can't believe putting in 85k and then 2k a month for 12 years, (373,000 total?) Could have turned into over a 1million just investing in basic ass VOO, my god. I'm gonna be sick.
Exactly. I always tell people it is unbelievable. Like really, I don't believe it. Compound growth is a crazy thing. It helps that 'my mix' has outperformed VOO the market by 1.57% over the decade too. 1.57% doesn't sound like a lot, but it is a difference of nearly $200,000. I have outperformed VT (Boglehead dream) by about $545,000. Little wins add up over the years.
It is possible, but it costs a lot of money to set it up and more for ongoing fees. I've looked into it casually, but don't know every nuance. I will have a lot to learn when the time comes. Step one is coming up with a nice mix of stocks that proves the test of time. I plan to make a run at this thing in the future for sure even if it comes with costs.
There is survivorship bias in your "backtest". I.e. by applying the criteria, which seems like a combination of multi-year growth and profit margin factors, you are selecting only the winners from the last X years. Of course they should beat the market, otherwise they wouldn't have qualified for the criteria you set
100%. And I was very clear with that. Gotta listen to the full video (: I’m very skeptical of these things, and it will be interesting to see how this goes moving forward. The turnover should be lower, but it will not be 0% by any stretch.
Love the emote usage. Bonus points for you (: Thank you for your extra level of support for the channel. Means a lot. The HODL Factory is only 0.9% of my overall portfolio. I am taking this one step at a time. The beautiful thing is that I can assess the performance with any amount of money because it is all based on % gains. It will get ramped up *if* it proves to be a winner for 3 years. If it continues to do well and provide quality dividend growth and a great floor protector, it will get a bigger slice of the pie.
@JeffTeeples Thank you for your response! Initially, I was considering allocating 10% of my overall four-fund portfolio (VOO, SCHD, QQQM, and VGT) through DCA for the stocks portion (in your case, the HODL Factory). I plan to adjust or rebalance the stocks based on their performance throughout the DCA process. By the way, I really want to thank you for your guidance video. As a beginner investor following your three-fund ETF recommendation, my overall portfolio has increased by 4.74% in 2 months! I'm looking to add some individual stocks now but am unsure of the maximum percentage to allocate. In your opinion, what is the maximum percentage a stock picks category should represent within a three-fund portfolio?Eg 30/30/30/10(Hodl)? Thank you!
Thank you for the kind words. You have been one of the longest standing members. In fact, you are 6th place on the seniority list as I look right now (: That is so cool. You nailed it in your example. I think the 30/30/30/10 is a great balance. 10% being the individual stocks. It is a lot of fun to pick stocks without a portfolio, but statistically 'most' people lose money compared to the low-cost ETFs over time. Giving ourselves 10% play money is great because it is enough to make it impactful when we beat the market, but not too much to destroy the portfolio when we fall short. For me, I'm slowly ramping up the HODL Factory. It is getting my 'UA-cam money' for now, which I just had to drop (more of that to come in my portfolio update). I think I'll raise my cap by 5% for every year it performs well. I want to iron this thing out before getting too crazy. Right now 10% is my cap. If 2024 continues to perform well, I will bump it to 15%.
@JeffTeeples Thank you for your detailed analysis. Helpful as ever! Perhaps you can do a future video to recommend the allocation % of stock picks within our 3 fund portfolios. Looking forward to more of your great contents!
Hey Jeff, I’m an 18 year old, fresh out of highschool and starting college this fall. I’ve saved up around $5,500 from part time jobs that I’ve got spread into mostly QQQM an SMH, I’m all in on tech & semiconductor growth as I believe it has been the driving factor of the market and will not be disappointing any time soon. Today my portfolio has hit $6,500 after only half a year and I am very proud to say this is the start in my investing journey, I plan to stay tech/growth focused until the market trend changes, from then I will rebalance if needed and continue compounding my wealth 🙂
That is incredible! You are worlds ahead of where I was at your age. I didn't know the first thing about investing for another decade at that point (:
Be sure to stay the course when technology takes a dive. You never want to sell low. When everyone else is running during a huge crash, that is when you buy more. Dollar cost average into your portfolio for decades and you will be one happy camper. Great work starting the journey at an early age. Compound interest will work wonders for you.
Thanks for all the comparison data in your HODL unveiling.
I also want to note you add a lot of details in your answers to many comments.
Thanks for all the time you put into these videos and responses.
Hey Charlie. You're welcome. Thank *you* for taking the time to watch the video and leave a comment. I appreciate your support of the channel over its first year so far.
Great mix. Over the last 24 months, my RRSP has gained 56.3%, with my TFSA gaining 83.3%. My non-registered account +155%. We can only achieve this with individual stock picks in most cases. Appreciate your videos, Jeff.
Hey Kyle. That is incredible work. Those returns are way better than my boring modern 3-fund portfolio (: Keep it going!
Truly incredible that HODL didn't get crushed in 2022! 🤩
I was blown away by that too. Again, to be clear, I didn't have the HODL Factory back then. I'm sure some, but not all, would have been included if I did. I don't want credit for something that didn't actually happen. Still wild. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next crash.
@@JeffTeeples Yep yep I know, still amazing.
Very impressive. The HODL appeared not to have a dip in April like the market, nice. Keep up the good work.
Thanks for the feedback. I noticed that too. I'm thinking about making a more advanced spreadsheet to track total return and dividend payments for custom timeframes. Something that combines unrealized and realized gains to truly compare to the market for any stretch of time. Maybe throw in turnover and taxes, but that will be added in time. For now I'm just looking at the default time periods available on M1.
Another amazing Video! That is so awesome HODL is performing so well! I hope you do make an ETF haha.
Thanks Oldrin. I appreciate the kind words. I hope to in the future. It is my goal that I'm willing to put money into once I feel comfortable with my results (it is not cheap to get started and maintain).
Thank you Jeff, great channel! This mix is pretty amazing and a testament to your passion for investing. Curious to see some sectors missing e.g. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities. Were these omitted by the HODL algorithm or were they excluded for other reasons? For those intrepid investors who are wanting to experiment with you, would you be in favor of including HODL in our own portfolios?
Hey David. Thanks for the questions. We do not exclude any sectors in our process. However, we also do not require exposure to any sectors either. We did add a ceiling of 20% recently (we were heavy in tech and financials before that). This caused quit a bit of turnover in our most recent quarterly update. I think 8 of the companies were new (I'm not looking at it, just can't remember if it was 7, 8, or 9 lol).
But now with caps in place and a 'score grace factor' added for companies already in the mix, we expect a lot lower turnover each quarter.
I would not recommend investing in the HODL Factory yet, personally. I think it needs to prove itself over a longer period of time. I am investing in it, of course, as I work out the methodology for the future. Right now, as an outsider, I would take a wait and see approach.
Hello Jeff, I have a question now that part of the market is at historical highs, I still do dca en voo qqqm spyg schd and dgro or at these prices do I stop any of them and give more importance to one in particular waiting for a correction in the market thanks for the value you bring us
Hey Juan. I'm a fan of dollar cost averaging into the market at all times regardless of the value. Usually we continue to hit all-time highs in spurts. It can, and will, go down eventually. But VGT felt high at 400 (I know someone waiting to buy before 400). And 450, and 500, and 550, and 600, etc.
I think a good way to counter-balance a high market is to stick to your target allocations. In other words, buy the holding that has become underweight in your portfolio with your next contribution.
For example, I've done nothing but buy SCHD lately. VGT has outperformed it, and I have needed to buy SCHD to get the portfolio back in balance.
For me, I like an even mix of VOO, VGT, and SCHD. When I add new dollars to the portfolio, I buy the one that is worth the least amount of money. This helps to 'automatically buy the market dips' over time.
Fascinating! Can't wait to invest in HODL Factory someday... Great video.
Question: I'm a JEPQ fan for income as I know you are. What are your thoughts on SPYI as a comparable covered call ETF for S&P?
Thanks for watching and for the confidence in me (:
Great question. I am not a huge fan of SPYI. I know it is a very popular ETF that has a high dividend yield. I can't get past the 0.68% expense ratio.
Core funds will outperform dividend producers over long-stretches of time. For example, QQQM is a better 'long-term' hold than JEPQ. VOO is a better long-term hold than JEPI or SPYI. For a young investor seeking total returns. The premium income comes at the cost of limiting the growth potential of the fund.
That said, we love JEPQ like funds for cash-flow. They also provide a more stable floor for the portfolio by comparison. JEPQ will generally fall less than QQQM in a bad market, for example.
VOO has a total return (dividends and expense ratio included) of 43.94% to SPYI's total return of 29.16% since inception. Again, it is not about 'beating the market' with cash flowing assets. But, the high expense ratio is a tough compounder. JEPQ at 0.35% is reasonable for an actively managed fund. My absolute ceiling is 0.50%. That is just a me thing, not a hard rule.
@@JeffTeeples Thanks, Jeff. It's been fun using the Retirement Dividend Projector spreadsheet to play with allocations and "what ifs." My husband just retired at 58, and it might be the same for me next year...we shall see how this year goes. 🙂 Thanks for all you do!
Finally, the HODL factory is revealed. Been waiting for this one! So cool, thanks for sharing. You inspire me with confidence to keep investing, Jeff. Big fan of your channel🎉
Hey William. I'm glad you liked it! I appreciate the support you have given to the channel by watching and commenting.
I think this will be a fun journey to share with people. It will take me a while to be sold on it (it is still only 1% of my overall portfolio right now), but I do think I can run a great ETF for income growth some day. Will it beat the market 'every year'? Probably not. But if I can create a stable floor with wild dividend growth I think it would work well.
Big fan Jeff❤ since watching your videos I’ve sold off the large majority of my individual stocks/losers & went heavy in Vgt,SCHD, qqqm, soxx. It’s only been a few months but I’m up quite a bit. But I know a pullback is coming, I already know the answer, but in order to realize the gains should I trim or keep dollar cost averaging and when the dip happens double down… thanks for everything you’ve changed my investing in such a positive way
I love that you have moved into simple solutions for your portfolio. I do the same thing (HODL Factory is currently only 1% as I figure it out) to grow long-term stable wealth.
A crash will hit us eventually, no doubt. I wish I had a crystal ball to know when (: I think it is good to dollar cost average in during a crash. Never sell low if you don't absolutely have to. For those blessed enough to keep their job during a major crash, I would say cost average *more* in during the crash. Buy up the shares when everyone else is running.
Specifically, I would buy the holdings that have crashed the most. If we buy to our target allocations we will do well long-term (assuming the holdings are all solid in the first place).
If tech crashes hard, for example, I'll load up on buying more VGT compared to SCHD. It will get VGT back up to its proper weighting in my portfolio. It's a way to automatically 'buy the dip' without having to get creative and make any weird gut calls.
Great video Jeff. The TEEPS ETF Group. First fund - HODL Fund. EST. 2025.
What a great goal and dream. Wish you the best of luck. I’ll take a prospectus when they are printed or available. lol.
Keep up the great work. Love your mindset and drive to succeed. Hope you had a great weekend. Until the next presentation, please be well.
Thanks for watching and commenting Lance. There is a lot of work to do, but a man can dream (:
My core setup will still be my low cost ETF strategy.
@@JeffTeeplesyou’re more than a dreamer. You’re a doer - otherwise you wouldn’t have made the leap you’ve made. Wishing you the best of luck in those endeavors as well as good health, prosperity and peace.
I'm not sure if Eli Lilly meets the criteria, but I'm starting to set up my own funds like you're doing. Liking what I see out of Lilly. Cheers, Jeff - thanks for everything!
It is so much fun to set up an 'ETF' like this (individual stocks). I will have my modern 3-fund ETF mix make up most of my portfolio for the time being. But I will gain more confidence in time if this thing keeps producing.
LLY didn't make the screener for the HODL. Of course, it is not because it is a bad stock. We have a very rigorous process for making the screener. LLY passed almost all of it!
keep pumping out those financial informational videos Jeff!!!!
Will do Kevin. Thank you for the consistent support of the channel. Not sure if we will ever take off completely, but I'm loving the process either way.
Great video! Looking forward to buying up some of that HODL ETF ;)
Thank you Nick. I appreciate the kind words and the extra level of support you have given to the channel. There will be plenty more to come!
Jeff, great vid as always. I wonder how you applied stock screener for stock picking? Dis you use stock screener as of current data, then back test the selction from 2012 to now? Or you applied screener as of 2012, 2013, .. each year and rebalance based on screener result each year? If its latter, how do you do that? It means you have access to historocal data and PortfolioVisualizerr allows you to do this type of backtest. Thanks for sharing, again great stuff.
Thank you for watching and for providing positive feedback. I did the back test from 2012 to now with my current holdings. I do not have the data to do the more accurate one (it would be more or less impossible to apply my methodology historically). That is why I had the major disclaimer that I did *not* get this performance. This is hindsight is 20/20 stuff. We'll have better data moving forward, but all can do for now is back test with what I have. I wouldn't have had these specific companies back in 2012. At least not all of them.
@@JeffTeeples Thnaks Jeff. Totally understand that it's almost impossible to apply the methodology historically unless you have access to that data which is normally available to large FIs. ( I know that because I used to help acquire such historical data set for a large Canadian pension fund for their Equity Research department.) Love to watch your followup episods on the performance of this methodology.
AVGO has grown into my second largest holding, after NVDA. It's a beast that's about to do its split.
Hey Karl. AVGO really has been incredible since I started this project. I'm curious where it will head to in the future. I also can't wait to see how my portfolio does in a down turn. I'm not convinced this will work perfectly yet, there is still a lot to learn.
Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Amen. I don't agree with bonds, personally, but I still approve your general message (:
As always, great video and analysis! Thanks Jeff!!
Thanks Subhash. I appreciate you taking the time to watch the video and for leaving positive feedback
I'm very happy with my current 10 stock portfolio, but they've outperformed their way to 52% of my overall portfolio. I'm not interested in selling any of them right now, so I've been buying ETFs heavily every week to balance out my portfolio until the market crashes. Once we have an extended downturn, I'll flip back to buying individual stocks.
Very nice Nick. It is always more exciting to see our stocks outperform the indexes. I think it is smart to keep it balanced with your purchasing of the underweight stuff (ETFs in this case). That way it doesn't get too out of control.
Great job Jeff!
Thanks for watching Tom. I appreciate the kind words.
Bummed... I love the mix and want to make my own HODL MINI but Schwab Slices does not cover AGM, CSL, FCNCA, HWKN, MLI, RS, TOL, or TPL. All the rest I can buy a fractional share as long as it's $5 or more per purchase. Some of those non-slice tickers are priced to where I could buy a whole share. But FCNCA, and TPL... that's out of range. So I guess it will have to be a 2/3HODL MINI.
Haha, love the HODL MINI. That's awesome. Thank you for watching and for dropping a comment. I will be sure to put out videos each quarter to explain any changes in the holdings. It has been high turnover so far as we work through the methodology each quarter, but long-term we don't foresee as much turnover at all.
Thanks for being a channel member. That extra support is awesome. I appreciate it.
Another great video. What are your thoughts on M1 vs Fidelity? Looking to consolidate down from multiple different brokers and on the fence between the two.
I like fidelity. Simply because you can actually get live customer service via chat or call.
I just transfered my VOO and VGT over to Fidelity. The platform is more simplistic, which is optimal, to me.
Hey Anthony. I think this will depend on the investor. Fidelity is more versatile than M1 Finance for someone that has a lot of accounts (Roth, Traditional, 529s, HSA, Custodial for kids, Solo 401ks for business owners, and many more). If you have a lot of accounts to manage and you will be active with keeping up, Fidelity is the clear winner. It commonly is voted as the best online broker on most sites.
M1 is the best, period, for a hands-off, passively, long-term investor that is on autopilot. The 'baskets' at Fidelity are not even sniffing the pies at M1. If you only need a taxable, Roth, and traditional IRA, and nothing extra or fancy, M1 is a great place to set up a system (Boglehead 3-fund, Buffet 2-fund, my modern mix, etc) and pump money in. It will automatically rebalance and track cool return information as well as a bonus. But it is not one of the 'big players' to be sure.
A personal note, and this is just a me thing, not a knock on Fidelity: I can't stand the 'look and feel' of it. E*Trade is worlds *cleaner* to me. For example, if you watch my portfolio update videos, notice the 'all accounts' look of E*Trade to see a clean single line of each holding (across all accounts) and a clean single line for average cost, everything in one screen. Attempt that with Fidelity (: These things don't matter for most people. Another big reason I like E*Trade is that it is not in competition with Fidelity, Vanguard, and Schwab as far as having its own ETFs and mutual funds. For example, you can't get VMFXX, the money market, on Fidelity, because you have to go with its much higher cost money market. They say heck no to Vanguard's superior version (consistently returns more net of fees). You have to get the minimum $100,000 one to even get close to VMFXX at Fidelity.
To be clear, Fidelity has the best account offerings and is the most flexible. It allows fractional share investing, has baskets, etc. There is a reason it is typically considered the best broker, but like anything, each person will be different.
@@JeffTeeples do you have a latest m1 referral link, I think the ease of use for M1 is what I’m going for, especially to help set up and show my kids how to add money and watch it grow. I wont get down to a single brokerage, although with my current set up that would never be possible, but overtime I think I’d move everything I can over to M1. Would love to make sure you’re getting the referral bonus for it!
Hey Anthony. Sorry for the late reply. I REALLY wish UA-cam would update a way to filter comments. I have to manually seek out replies to replies.
Here is my link. I love M1 Finance, personally.
m1.finance/qKHE6cu7jKp9
I appreciate it!
I am a newish viewer and subscriber…love the channel and content, but the music in the background is annoying!
Thanks for watching and subscribing. I'm going to be going to one song per video for a while, and a little less volume on it. I like *something* there, but I'll try to make it more chill.
I’m also good in reverse stock picking … 😜
Right!? Just custom tailor that thing to look great in the past (: Kidding of course.
That back test was the first one I ever ran (no lie, on screen shares I always go fresh, don't like to script to keep it more natural). When you hear me say 'wow, 5 years in a row of beating the market, crazy' type things, that is legit surprise as I'm seeing it. The only 'pre-look' I do is when I align 'my mix' with my actual portfolio amount (I have to tweak the monthly contribution and starting amount to make it work).
But of course I did NOT own these stocks in 2022, so we will see what happens moving forward (:
Good morning. Thanks for all that you do.
Thank you for watching and commenting. Nice to see some of the same names for a year now! (:
The Big Reveal! 😂 good to share current filters you use…understand it is evolving.
Haha, the *HUGE* reveal (oh wait, not a lot of money at all) (:
Sharing my filters and scoring system is a tough one. As many here know, my 'thing' is to be painfully transparent with the community. I want to *show* that I practice what I preach to ultimately help the most people. I can't stand when people talk out of both sides of their mouth.
That said, this process will likely remain proprietary and stay between Hutch and I. It is not to protect me from looking stupid or anything as changes are made. I don't care about that stuff. But it is to protect the underlying methodology as it evolves over time. The long game is to make an ETF that is successful in all markets. This will be an incomplete product for a while, and I don't want to mislead people in the meantime (or have them steal the formulas when it does work and beat me to the punch). It's one of the few things I don't openly share.
What is the Ticker symbol for The HODL Factory
Unfortunately it doesn't exist yet. It likely will not exist for a few years. I would never accept funding without having history of it working well for a few years and an ironed out methodology with low turnover. I will announce on the channel (and consistently provide updates) if/when it becomes available in the future.
It will be as low-cost as possible. If I crack the code I'm not here to make millions, I'm hear to share a nice dividend growth holding.
@JeffTeeples - Start it up right after a crash! 😂 A few funds have done that.
Never hurts to start out your ETF stats in an uptrend.
Great update!!!
Thanks Jay. This thing has a long ways to go before I *really* believe in it. I thought it would be fun to share the progress.
Im gonna need you to actually create this ETF soon so i can invest in it and let you wizards manage it for me
I appreciate the positive feedback. Chuckled at wizards. It will take me a long time to feel confident in our methodology to allow others to invest (even at a low-cost). But I will make it known when the day comes! Doing something like this is my 'dream job'. Baby steps (:
I know this will not resonate with most and I could be called out for being a liar. But I can genuinely say I will not be doing this for the money. Of course I hope it does well and makes a little extra from gaining investors. But the expense ratio will be as low as humanly possible to make a touch over what it costs long-term. Zero greed / money goals on this one for me. Want a nice fund to grow wealth and cash-flow for people.
This thing has low yield, but wild dividend growth. Right now the dividend CAGR is around 18% in the past 5 years. This means the dividends would double every 4 years.
Yield on cost:
1.14% yield (as of today, this will not be for cash now)
2.28% in 4 years
4.5% in 8 years
9% in 12 years
18% in 16 years
36% in 20 years
72% in 24 years
Of course there is no guarantee that the dividends will grow 'that much' in the future. But the spreadsheet scoring system combined with the screener is pretty... unique. They 'will' grow more than competition in any market (not total returns, but specifically dividends).
@@JeffTeeples - the YOC numbers do get a little too insane looking that far into the future. When looking at SCHD, I used to dial back the CAGR as well as insert one 0% year (growth and dividend payments) every decade.
The numbers were still eye popping after that.
The market dynamics in 2023 dialed back SCHD's returns for me! What a great buying opportunity.
I know you're still working out the details, but are you two leaning to a once a year reconstitution for the Hodl factory or something more fluid?
Hey Charlie. Thanks for the great feedback. To answer your question, right now we are conducting a quarterly reconstitution (full run of screener, spreadsheet scoring, and other logic applied). We have made a lot of changes every quarter, so the turnover is very high right now.
The idea is to buy long-term holds. We will still meet once per month to re-run everything, but we will not make as many moves in general (as the methodology stays the same, more of the same companies will show up).
The performance has been awesome, but the system has seen major changes every quarter based on new 'ah-ha' moments (:
Thank you
Thanks for watching and commenting. I appreciate it.
U got a subscriber 😊
Awesome, I appreciate that. Thank you for watching.
I can't believe putting in 85k and then 2k a month for 12 years, (373,000 total?) Could have turned into over a 1million just investing in basic ass VOO, my god. I'm gonna be sick.
Exactly. I always tell people it is unbelievable. Like really, I don't believe it. Compound growth is a crazy thing.
It helps that 'my mix' has outperformed VOO the market by 1.57% over the decade too. 1.57% doesn't sound like a lot, but it is a difference of nearly $200,000. I have outperformed VT (Boglehead dream) by about $545,000. Little wins add up over the years.
@@JeffTeeples It is insane! That is so great you beat voo with your mix so happy for you!
Is it possible for you to create your own ETF and put it on the market?
It is possible, but it costs a lot of money to set it up and more for ongoing fees. I've looked into it casually, but don't know every nuance. I will have a lot to learn when the time comes. Step one is coming up with a nice mix of stocks that proves the test of time. I plan to make a run at this thing in the future for sure even if it comes with costs.
I will be your first buyer once it gets approved!
There is survivorship bias in your "backtest". I.e. by applying the criteria, which seems like a combination of multi-year growth and profit margin factors, you are selecting only the winners from the last X years. Of course they should beat the market, otherwise they wouldn't have qualified for the criteria you set
100%. And I was very clear with that. Gotta listen to the full video (:
I’m very skeptical of these things, and it will be interesting to see how this goes moving forward. The turnover should be lower, but it will not be 0% by any stretch.
Bruh… Bruh 😂
haha, I tossed that in at the last minute because I was tired of my boring transitions (:
Hi Jeff, could you let me know what percentage allocation the HODL Factory constitutes within your equally weighted 3-fund portfolio?
Love the emote usage. Bonus points for you (: Thank you for your extra level of support for the channel. Means a lot.
The HODL Factory is only 0.9% of my overall portfolio. I am taking this one step at a time. The beautiful thing is that I can assess the performance with any amount of money because it is all based on % gains.
It will get ramped up *if* it proves to be a winner for 3 years. If it continues to do well and provide quality dividend growth and a great floor protector, it will get a bigger slice of the pie.
@JeffTeeples Thank you for your response! Initially, I was considering allocating 10% of my overall four-fund portfolio (VOO, SCHD, QQQM, and VGT) through DCA for the stocks portion (in your case, the HODL Factory). I plan to adjust or rebalance the stocks based on their performance throughout the DCA process.
By the way, I really want to thank you for your guidance video. As a beginner investor following your three-fund ETF recommendation, my overall portfolio has increased by 4.74% in 2 months! I'm looking to add some individual stocks now but am unsure of the maximum percentage to allocate.
In your opinion, what is the maximum percentage a stock picks category should represent within a three-fund portfolio?Eg 30/30/30/10(Hodl)? Thank you!
Thank you for the kind words. You have been one of the longest standing members. In fact, you are 6th place on the seniority list as I look right now (: That is so cool.
You nailed it in your example. I think the 30/30/30/10 is a great balance. 10% being the individual stocks. It is a lot of fun to pick stocks without a portfolio, but statistically 'most' people lose money compared to the low-cost ETFs over time. Giving ourselves 10% play money is great because it is enough to make it impactful when we beat the market, but not too much to destroy the portfolio when we fall short.
For me, I'm slowly ramping up the HODL Factory. It is getting my 'UA-cam money' for now, which I just had to drop (more of that to come in my portfolio update). I think I'll raise my cap by 5% for every year it performs well. I want to iron this thing out before getting too crazy.
Right now 10% is my cap. If 2024 continues to perform well, I will bump it to 15%.
@JeffTeeples Thank you for your detailed analysis. Helpful as ever! Perhaps you can do a future video to recommend the allocation % of stock picks within our 3 fund portfolios. Looking forward to more of your great contents!
I will put that on the list! I just recorded my monthly update, I should have thrown it in that one (: