Something Peter didn't mention. Don't you guys have explosives in the chip fabrication plants so if China is going to win they don't get those facilities? My understanding was that it was a "poison pill," strategy, knowing that the destruction of your chip plants would create a worldwide depression and destroy Chinese trade even if the west didn't sanction China. Leading to the famine Peter mentioned.
@@RebootedMind You funny. China been acting like this since WW2. The only problem I would say is, we been trying to tell the world about China acting as a snake, but no one listen or care. Suddenly the world is talking about it now? Lol Dude we are one of the country that created the UN and the world kick us out. If the war actually happens, after they took Taiwan, it’ll be your problem. And we will help CCP to destroy the rest of the world just so you people can feel what it’s like by not listening to us at the first place.
And that, friends, is the best summation of the Taiwan situation I have heard to date. After 30 years spent in and around China and Taiwan I haven’t found anyone who makes more sense than Peter on this topic.
he predicts nothing, right? and contradict himself. you can also think CCP and XI are playing strategic ambiguity so that the west could not predict anyting. in the meantime, china keeps building its navy and other military power. the most important thing is china will get oil and food from russia and avoid all choke points the west prepared to contain china.
And the people would finally recognize how insane the CCP is. DON'T FORGET, Protesting against COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in the government backing down.
Peter's point that Xi might pull the trigger on an invasion of Taiwan just to keep the CCP in power is both depressing and, I believe, most accurate and perceptive. Thank you Peter for doing such a great job of keeping us enlightened on geopolitics!
I disagree. Xi has many faults but amoral is not one of them. he really does love China and the Chinese people although he is completely wrong and fucked in the head. Xi doesn't want to grab power solely for power's sake he wants power to shape China in his own moral image. there lies the problem because his own moral image is anti-growth and anti prosperity n anti-freedom.
@@robertshelton3796 without knowing how much you care about Ukraine that is rather a trite comment. I'm from the UK, and I think that supporting any other democratic nation is important, and especially those democratic nations threatened by dictatorships, that may one day come for us if we don't stand up to them as a whole.
@@robertshelton3796 You should care a lot about both, unless you believe that abdicating from its superpower responsibilities and letting China shape the world order will bring US prosperity.
I’ve spent a lot of time working in China and Taiwan over the last 30 years as an engineer. Love Taiwan! It’s what China could have been if it had democracy, freedom and rule of law.
As you'll know, then, much of Taiwan's growth occurred under authoritarian, one-party rule. It's why the UK, USA, wtc. were happy to go along with the PRC-sponsored narrative to chuck them out of the UN. Democracy did not significantly affect the trajectory of growth from an economic viewpoint.
CHINA has to stay that way to dynamically counter the attacks from the Enemy Races US/WEST,the repitilian strong hold Nations. There is NO differences, ( not too much) with its core HUMAN VALUES, which follow the UNIVERSAL LAWS and PRICIPALS established by the Ancient ONES regardless of the LABELS. What is called FREEDOM and Democracy are NOTHING but ILLUSIONS the the POPULACE can NEVER understand.
@@ralphholiman7401 I don't think he's a bot, he may actually have a point about single-minded growth with united populations- but ultimately it doesn't matter, since as we can see with China, there are serious weaknesses that come with authoritarian regimes that outstay their welcome. Places like Taiwan and Singapore seem to have avoided the pit before they fell in, and good for them.
The other problem China would have with taking over Taiwan's infrastructure is that Taiwan is VERY unlikely to allow the factories to fall intact. China not only doesn't know how to operate them, but Taiwan is likely to wreck them on the way out. So they'd also have to figure out how to repair them before they tried to learn t
The factories will definitely be bombed to rubble when it becomes apparent China will capture them. The US will not allow China to gain a technology benefit from the capture of Taiwan.
The most advanced chips rely on some of the most advanced optics in the world. There is only one company that makes this equipment and they won't be the ones repairing it. I've worked in optics, and believe me, there is no way anyone is going to be able to reverse engineer that equipment.
I previously lived in China for 11 years. I have long said that the CCP sees war as a solution to one big problem: the vast number of young men who can't find jobs and also can't find wives (thanks to their failed one-child policy creating an insane gender imbalance with 118 men for every 100 women). I agree that the CCP may be willing to sacrifice millions of their own young men to both maintain their grip on power and to help reduce the vast number of single, unemployed young men to a somewhat more manageable number.
@@httm241 They would never do it under their current leadership, simply because the entire Party has never outgrown their naive admiration for Russia (via early Soviet Union and Stalinist grooming of the future communist cadres). Even in children books it’s referred to as the “older brother”. This is even more true now, especially after the current chairman took power - his real views are closer to hardcore Leninist worldwide revolution than anything else, and he inherited the aforementioned affection for their former sugar daddy. I’d sooner bet on India despite the insane geographical difficulties involved.
why you guys love to post nonsense? You talked as though Chinese are suffering !!! CCP has more than 90% popularity today confirmed by Western survey like Harvard. If you go to China today , not 11 years ago, you see the future how the world will be and then you see your 3rd world when you go back Did you see the opening ceremony of the ASIAN games? No country in the world can even come close much less America way way far behind with lot of homeless while you find none in China. hahahahahhah really ....
@@httm241 I mean central Asia has loads of raw resources that could be really helpful in the event that shipping lanes become unreliable so it wouldn't be a total waste to take it.
We used them to shake Russia, similar to the way we funded the SAMS to Bin Laden in Afghanistan to chase the Russians out. Life is more complicated than chess, no one could have foreseen the consequences. IMO, the world is being run by mad men, from Putin to the "World Economic Forum" to XI to US leadership. They all seem hell bent on confrontation and war.
Maybe it was worth trying, with them and Russia, but we vastly and naively overestimated the rest of the world's readiness for democracy. The majority of humans don't live under democracy and rule of law, and we learned in the last 20 years there's no way to change that from the outside.
When a crazy leader is surrounded by crazy people, crazy things can happen. I agree with Peter Zeihan on this one. If China 🇨🇳 starts an illogical war, it will be for illogical reasons. Hence the reason why living under a dictator is very scary.
China isn't the one trying to start a war. He just gave all these reasons why they wouldn't. I don't buy this demographics thing he harps on though. They have better demographics than the US does. They have over a billion people and they aren't bringing in garbage like the US is.
China starting an invasion of Taiwan to get the Chinese people forget about the domestic problems, is something that is very scary and also very possible in my humble opinion.
Yes, but that isn’t needed in China. The CCP’s control over its citizenry is so complete that they can stoke a nationalistic frenzy with just a few propaganda hit pieces
Scary. Peter, here is a question for you. In its history the Chinese empire has formed and fallen apart several times. It is composed of separate peoples, languages, and cultures, much like the Russian Federation. Might the collapse of China bring about its division into its regional states becoming independent, i.e. Tibet, Mongolia, Xinjiang, etc.? Is there any chance some of these might become democracies?
Not likely, enormous Chinese empires have a tendency to be clingy, it's only when the ruling empire becomes both economically and politically bankrupt the regional states tend to break off. CCP is, by historic standards, still going very strong as a ruling empire. A decade later when its younger generation starts to dry up we'll have another look but in short term not likely.
Tibet barely has a population to be a fully functioning democracy. It most likely will be a princely country like Bhutan with Indian military backing. Mongolia is already independent. Xinjiang will not become independent because it has more Han Chinese now there than Uighurs.
None of those previous reformations occurred during a post-industrial demograghic collapse. More likely it turns into something that looks more like Afghanistan. Lots of tribal ethnic factions controlled by warlords, fighting over ill defined disputed territories and scarce resources.
It's already happening. Quite a bit of incentives were offered in the bills passed by Biden and the dems. No podium pounding or harsh rhetoric. Just logical pro-active legislation.
@@ryanreedgibsonits honestly crazy to me to see conservatives saying he was the worst president in human history when he literally just continued trumps policies and even made them stronger. But whatever people wannna believe what they wanna believe 🤷♂️
I have finally come to the conclusion that I would prefer to listen to you rather than the news. You do not scare the hell out of me or make me feel hopeless about the state of the world, as opposed to the Machine. OMG, thank you, Peter.
Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait America invading Iraq The Russians invading Afghanistan in the 1980s The Americans invading Afghanistan in the 2000s The Germans invading Russia in WW2 The Italians joining the Germans in WW2 The Germans listening to an Austrian before he started WW2. The Japanese bombing Pearl Harbour and not getting the Aircraft carriers. The Australians and New Zealanders trusting the British in WW1 and WW2 that they had a plan. That whole Korean thing. That whole Vietnam thing. That stuff that happened in Mogadishu. ALL that stuff in Israel & Palestine. YEAH that list just keeps getting longer and longer the more I think about it and that just the last century and a bit.
There is a very strong precedent argument in favor of that "dark scenario." Russia's demographic decline was observed since the early 2000s, and many geopolitical analysts including Mr. Zeihan suggested that the Russian state, also aware of this decline, would no longer have a sufficient population size to meet its military's current personnel needs (i.e. it would be overextended within its own borders) by the 2030s, and that as a result Russia would instigate a major military conflict before 2025 to either increase its population size through conquest or achieve borders/frontiers that would have smaller military staffing requirements. The war in Ukraine appears to be that major military conflict, though it does not appear that Russia will be able to achieve its strategic aims this way. The PRC is in a similar situation, though in Red China's case it is not about lacking military personnel but rather lacking the sufficient numbers of appropriately-aged workers to sustain its current economic model, which by most assessments appears to be coming to a head within the next 10 years. As such, while a Chinese military action is not as directly correlated to the PRC's needs in the way Russian military action is correlated to Russia's needs, a Chinese military action against Taiwan serves other purposes related to state security. Notably, by taking over Taiwan's semiconductor plants, even though the PRC won't know how to operate them, they are then also non-functional for the rest of the world (it would be a temporary loss for the world due to the ability of other producers, notably the ROK, US, and Japan, to recover, but a blow in the short term nonetheless). Secondly, thanks to decades of the one-child policy, China has something like 50 to 100 million more males between the ages of 20-50 than females, some of them in the military; a major Chinese military conflict would put a dent in this gender gap as well as reduce unmet domestic consumption needs (due to fewer people as a result of military casualties). A Chinese military conflict would also turn its economy into a wartime economy, which would be a major stimulant. Lastly, a Chinese military conflict would strongly distract its increasingly-dissatisfied population from persistent domestic socioeconomic woes.
They don't need to do that anymore. The money is better spent on talent and development of their own breakthroughs. As Nvidia CEO has warned, it is only a matter of time.
@@DeadManWalking-ym1oo oh I agree about the recovery from the semiconductor loss if Taiwan is lost - it would be at best a temporary blow if the PRC were to take them. All of the things I mentioned favoring a Chinese military action (other than population decline) are relatively short-term effects; if the PRC truly does take long-term strategy seriously, it will find that the long-term disadvantages negate the short-term advantages of a military action.
I think they key point is the ease with which a few US submarine could blockade china. All theyd have to do is sit is the Indian ocean and block energy imports from the middle East and china is fucked within months.
@@ecthelion83 Yeah. I've never really found the invasion scenario compelling. Where Russia could argue their very survival probably does depend on a Ukrainian buffer state, China has grown and thrived with a Westernized Taiwan right there the whole time. It hasn't really changed their arc one way or the other, and in fact, it's probably helped them to some degree by ensuring the West had a compelling strategic interest in the region. Taking Taiwan is literally all downside and no upside.
Hi, Peter. I love your videos but is there any chance you can normalize your audio? Some are deafening, others are whisper quiet. It would help me greatly not getting caught slacking during my job if I could stick to one audio level
I have been saying this for a couple of years now to friends and coworkers. China's big move will not be Taiwan, it's going to be Russia. China is very patient. The more Russia continues to weaken militarily, the easier it will be for China to take vast amounts of land rich in natural resources that China lacks. China doesn't want the whole of Russia, only land with natural resources. Mostly oil!! That's my honest opinion.
I'm not sure China would launch a full-fledged war. More like low-key military threats, and economic and diplomatic pressure to cede territory...large enough to be meaningful in terms of natural resources, but modest enough that a broke Kremlin would shy away from full-blown hostility to China, and be forced into accepting a "land purchase" for financial survival. Primarily on the fringes of Russia's eastern regions where the population is much lower.
All signs point to YES! *increased military incursions into Taiwan’s economic zone *Taiwan is on alert and monitoring ground force movements across the straight in China’s Fujian province *China’s diesel production has surged by a factor of 3 while domestic commercial demand is sluggish Businesses: Reorganize your supply chain. Investors: Pull your money out. Look what happened to Western businesses in Russia. BP, Shell, McDonald’s, Levi’s, etc...
Taiwan can defeat China if they are ruthless. If they destroy the 3 gorges and a few other dams they can kill an estimated 400 million Chinese. There's battle plans you can find on UA-cam. Taiwan would have to be willing to take these extreme measures.
And it isn't that far fetched as exported Chinese military equipment fails and hardly works. There's plenty of videos of countries complaining about the malfunctioning equipment. There has been leaks about the failures of their rocket force and the faking of the data so that's why it isn't that far fetched.
We have to consider that China re-manufactures brass sheets and lead needed for US ammunition production. Not only will costs surge for businesses that had relied on China since the Clinton era, China could shut off the flow of ammunition to its aggressors by refusing to process the expended raw materials.
@@dontcare7086 I don’t condone killing civilians and I would imagine the Taiwanese wouldn’t want to commit a war crime either. That being said, do the Taiwanese have ordinance that can reach? 3 gorges is in Hubei, which is pretty much in the center of China. Even if range wasn’t an issue, wouldn’t missiles or aircraft be intercepted before reaching the target?
@@TacticalTerry We’re already seeing a preview with China’s export ban on gallium and germanium. Let’s not forget their restriction of rare earth exports to Japan in 2010, after a Chinese fishing vessel rammed a Japanese Coast Guard ship. Japan ultimately found an alternative source. I’ll reiterate; it’s time to de-risk the supply chain. We enjoyed cheap economic growth while turning a blind eye to slave labor, economic coercion, IP theft, ecological pollution, etc... That ride is nearing the end. The sooner we shift to alternative vendor nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam, India; the better. As Peter keeps warning, free and secured shipping will not exist for everyone in the future. We know this, China knows this. It’s the reason why they’re developing Myanmar to bypass the Malacca Strait. It’s also the reason why they’re stockpiling food, fertilizers and fuel. Get your money out of China while you can.
Most Americans can't either. It's not about the IQ of Chinese population, which I believe is quite high if you look at the data. It's about their system of government. Authoritarian governments can start wars just to distract their population and remain in power.
Sure. Depend on the US navy to provide security,and then start a war with said navy. Great plan. What could go wrong??? On another note,your final 'dark' take on the situation is exactly what has been swimming around my head lately. I just couldn't articulate it as well as you did. Thx Peter
I do appreciate the point tou made in saying its not just the equipment but the personal that make those companies successful and that it would take most countries a decade to get it running puts into perspective how complicated that system is
Am a big fan, and watch most of your videos, and I read your most recent book. And - I would SO LOVE to see you in some debates with people as well-informed and articulate as you are but who can effectively challenge some of your many confident assertions, and then hear your response and the ensuing dialogue. In the meantime, I truly love this channel.
@@marksizer3486 it's my weekly comedy slot! Wouldn't miss it for the world. The most enjoyable part is reading all the comments and realizing how many sheep are out there that actually believe this drivel!
In this discussion, one can’t assume a rational (or at least within the margin of error of normative/moral/intelligent) actor in Chinese leadership. Everything you’ve already noted about Xi’s actions seems to telegraph that we may not be dealing with a perfectly rational agent-and this is exacerbated by the information vacuum he’s created around him.
Yeah...The same information vacuum of Mr. Putin after one full-blown year inside his Bunker. Every single Think Tank failed to identify a possible invasion. We reason; they don't.
I read a comment somewhere several months ago where he said Putin was suffering from "late in life dictator's disease". That makes a lot of sense. When a man reaches a certain age he has to face his own demise and also how those he cares about will fare, or, in the case of a leader, how history will remember him. Plus as you get older, I'm 70, you really just quit giving a f*ck. Let 'er rip, it's either death in a blaze of glory or dying of cancer with a tube up your *ss. I almost think it would be good to put an upper age limit on positions of power, say 60 at most, because of this. But, back to Pooty and Xi. I believe they're both 70 or so and I hope they aren't going to go out with a bang just to make a dent in the history books. It can be pretty dangerous to your life to not give a f*ck but dangerous to millions of lives when you are a leader and don't give a f*ck.
Another factor: Because of decades of a one child policy and the tendency to see continuation of a family line as carried out by sons... China cannot absorb large scale casualties without quickly wiping out family lines, destroying Chinese culture and causing a quick and enormous backlash.... China cannot handle a protracted war because of this....Not to mention China's urbanization project means it cannot feed itself if the war spreads outside of a Taiwan limited conflict.
The argument that such a war would be irrational and counter-productive for China is an easy one to make but how many irrational decisions has Xi already made during his tenure? Xi will probably do what he thinks is best for Xi rather than what is best for China, and even that stands a good chance of being wrong. Remember how the world thought Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine because that would be crazy? You think Xi is more rational?
It's true lose NG a ton of young soldiers (assuming Xi is told that's a possibility) would make the demographic inversion much worse... But I'm exchange they could blame the West and Japan for supporting Taiwan and claim the one child policy was fine. Never underestimate the desire of authoritarian officials to shift blame even if that makes things worse.
@@jimmywei2542 tell Peter the clown to start making assessments about American youth like why they shatter bus shelters? What his analysis says about it? Why they slash car tires for fun? Why they dream of killing their parents? Why they dream of killing their teachers? Why they loot stores for fun? Why they do drugs and do ther crimes and gun fight? Why they rape innocent vulnerable girls going home late at night for some reason. Why youth push elderly walking on the edge of the road to the oncoming traffic and push them in front of the trains? Why they are not spiritual? Can this clown with vast goofy knowledge about China throw some lights on these evils plaguing our society?
There's precedent for Peter's last point, which ups the likelihood of war. Over the last 100 years, there were plenty of Chinese leaders who were amoral enough to sacrifice astronomical number of lives just to hold power...CKS, Mao, Deng. Xi is no trail blazer here. A familiar playbook has already been written for him.
the fact that USA is in recession USA demographics collapse going on USA stirring up trouble against china knowing USA will die if it tried anything USA losing wars in Afghanistan Sanctions against china thinking that will ever help Don't worry . Your kind is losing badly and it's awesome .
It's like in the movie "Margin Call" when the CEO played by Jeremy Irons arrives to the staff meeting and justifies collapsing the company, thus triggering a economic free fall, in order to save 'the TOP'..
That last option is the one that has occurred to me a few times now after listening to discussions on events in China, though I wonder if it might equally be sparked by a mistake out in the field where China is seeing how far they can go against places like the Philippines and Taiwan, or with the internal hyper-nationalism spilling out too far. We know that they have stepped up preparations for war in recent years and are increasingly hostile to all foreigners, and even if that is not done because they want to start a war it still does not bode well for peacefully navigating this decade. Wars have been started with less hostility.
Also, the CCP would want to decimate the number of young single angry men within the nation with a war so they aren't as much a threat during the collapse
For the Dark scenario: In this age of long-range missiles, Xi has to know that any war will be personal. He'll be spending what's left of his life on the run from bunker to bunker.
Also regarding the microchip facilities. They would quite likely be damaged beyond repair or destroyed in any attempted invasion. Either by the Chinese themselves or the Taiwanese seeking to deny it to them.
I have heard that the Taiwanese have a demolition plan for the semiconductor facilities in place in the event that defeat is immanent. Basically as a warning that if they come to take it, we will destroy it rather then giving it to you.
My worry is that if one front opens up, even if it's not a win for the one who opens it, might leave another front looking open to abuse. How many fronts can be focused on at the same time, especially when things can change faster than they could in '41.
He has a video for this topic. I believe last year. These two particular fronts draw from two different military vehicle and weaponry so the USA wouldn't have a problem enduring the two fronts.
I like the analysis very much. It is possible that he might pull the trigger for the reasons you explained before, but it also fits the rhetoric about the sacred war. The historic war between the West and China/Russia eternal friendship. I know that's an scenario nobody wants to hear much less imagine. It is terrifiying. A war with no purpose but for a hope of dethroning America on the battlefield.
It’s not even about dethroning America. It’s about the CCP controlling the narrative that it is right. And by controlling the narrative, it will brainwash its people for untold generations with its rhetoric. That is how far they will go to control their “position”. To me, that’s terrifying and something needs to be done about it (not sure what though).
There's no eternal friendship between China and Russia. They've had more conflicts over their own shared border than either side has actually had with the Americans. And last time China made a push on India over their shared border, Russia not only took India's side, they assisted arming India with Migs and other modern weaponry. Putin and Xi tell the world they're friends, but they would each stab the other in the back first chance they got.
I’m sorry, but China and Russia are not friends, more like convenient Allie’s. The Russians never forgot who betrayed them during the Cold War (the Chinese) and the Chinese always envied Russia’s position in global politics. If anything, the Russian could always become knives pointed to the back of China, they just have to figure out how to do that.
It is worth pointing out that the man who planned the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor knew Japan would lose any extended war with the US. There was a (obviously misguided) hope that if the US Navy was hit hard enough early, we would sue for peace on terms favorable to Japan, rather than engage in a long, costly war. Xi may make a similar calculation, hoping that if he takes Taiwan quickly, the US and our allies will decide it isn't worth a major conflict. I personally think this would work out for China about as well as it did for Japan. The only debate I hear in US policy towards China is each side accusing the other of not being tough enough on China.
Japan also had two years of oil left after the US embargoed their oil supply. They decided it was better to start a war when the US was relatively unprepared and hope for the best rather than waiting for the country to grind to a halt.
Peter, not sure if anyone had informed you; your microphone level is a bit low, in almost all of the videos I have seen. I'm assuming you're using your phone to record, so I recommend an external mic. Since you're outdoors most of the time, get one w/ the wind muff.
I think an ever increasingly powerful military Japan, will also act to check the CCP’s expansionist aspirations. Especially, if they are armed with nuclear weapons. Excellent assessment, as always.
@@delfinenteddyson9865Yes, certainly, but if we're talking maritime warfare (not "boots on the ground") then personnel numbers are smaller. They may get smaller still as drones/missiles do more of the work.
Japan would be the natural balance of power to China, military as well is far superior to China, China has numbers, but the quality of training, ships engineering and the amount of corruption when it comes to cutting corners, like we seen in the toofu buildings, infraastrature in China to looking at the amount of corruption is so deep i am not all that concerned with a military conflict, in all honest it needs to happen so that China gets its ass kick as it needs to be put in there place.
The japanese don't have nukes. And even if they would decide today to get them (highly unlikely) it would take a decade at least to get enough to threaten china.
With all due respect, the Chinese dont need to do anything with the Taiwanese semiconductor infrastructure. They just need to make sure that the Taiwanese can't either in order to achieve their goals.
Glad someone else realizes this. I've been saying the same thing about Russia too, that they might use nukes even if it results in extensive damage to their country because the damage they would also inflict on other countries would allow them to retain a semblance of parity going into the next era of geopolitics.
Over-water invasions are far,far more difficult than overland invasions. The Taiwanese have the US supplying the muscle to prevent the Chinese from succeeding in such a venture,as well as well thought out defenses on Taiwan itself. Resupply of an invasion force would have to be by sea,and ships can and would be easily sunk.
From what I understand, an amphibious landing on a fortified coast is about the most difficult mission a military can try. Perhaps someone here with a military background might correct me if necessary. The Chinese military has no actual war experience, many of their weapons are patterned (stolen) from the Soviets and we have seen in Ukraine they aren't always the best, and, let's face it, their weapons are made in China, the land of tofu-dreg everything. There is absolutely no logical reason for Xi to invade Taiwan and think he can win. But human beings are not always logical now are they?
People dont always act rationally. When you are staring down a fight, you have to have some varible irrationality so that people cant predict what you will do. Good warfare is sort of chaotic and unpredictable.
At some point the CCP *must* take Taiwan. Simply by existing it demonstrates to the Chinese people that a civilisation based on Chinese culture can be free, democratic, and prosperous. The CCP deal with their people has always been: accept authoritarianism and you get prosperity in return. Taiwan is proof that other, better, options are possible.
Anytime I see a discussion on the potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan, there seems to be an assumption that it would be a successful operation for China. Is it safe to assume that the Chinese military is functionally capable of pulling off an invasion of that magnitude? According to Wikipedia the Taiwan strait is 81 miles at its narrowest point so similar to what the allied powers had to cross for the Normandy invasion. Inherent difficulties of an amphibious invasion, lack of combat experience, dysfunctional leadership structure, a keen and watchful opponent, and unknown defensive capabilities all suggest to me China might not be able to pull it off in the first place. Would love to hear Peters thoughts on this!
China is what we were in 1941, a manufacturing power unparalleled globally. We overwhelmed the Germans with production, China would be the ones doing that now. Of course, we had and still have uninterruptable domestic supplies of energy, ore, and other raw materials, and China does not... so that would not go well for them 😸
Would seem unlikely that China could muster an invasion force without intelligence agencies noticing and tipping off their hand. If Biden was telling the truth that the US and presumably other allies would defend Taiwan from invasion, what assets could or would be used to counter the attack? I imagine some sort of nuclear strike would be pretty effective at stopping such a force making their way across the strait. Very interesting thought experiment!
Russia has vast mineral resources and grows lots of food. China can build many things quite well. This perhaps makes both of those neighbours less dependent on everyone else than many people would suggest.
russia grows lot of food? Mate the "food" they grow the grains they have are for pastures and animals not human consumption. Low quality China can build many thing quite well as long as they have foreign machines and expertise to access to
@@miraphycs7377 Whether their grain is used for animals or human consumption, it still exists and the Russians can allocate it to wherever seems optimal to them. I understand that until recently Russia exported significantly more grain than even Ukraine. Also, to some extent the quality and technological advancement of Chinese manufactured goods is not entirely relevant because access to manufactured goods is essential and there are work-arounds that enable use of old tech. BTW, personally I am not a fan of the regimes in either country. What concerns me is that videos such as this one may lead us to underestimate our enemies.
I’m reminded of how the Japanese in WW2 kinda knew they couldn’t ultimately win if it really came down to a war. But, they attacked anyway, in some sort of messed up gamble that they *might* win.
Japan - and the Japanese people - thought they could win. The plan was to force the work alongside Axis elements to force the UK to surrender at which point the US would lose interest and return to isolationist mode. They may have been under the illusion that the US wouldn't escalate but that's a separate matter.
Correct. They told the Emperor that all sorts of surprises occur in war and they would just have to hope for the best. Essentially like rolling a 13 on a pair of dice.
As knowledgeable as Peter is, and as much as I like his information, I’m still skeptical on the collapse of China entirely. Absolutely no one can accurately predict if it’s going to happen
Time to unpack the crisis between Canada and India. How ill advised is Canada on creating an international spat, going public with alleged activities that, let's face it, all states undertake. Trudeau has shown such poor leadership with China on the international stage, an utter humiliation, and now is doing the same with India.
Hi Peter, I’m very curious about the demographic collapse of a country that is 1.4 billion…most likely a lot less. What does a demographic collapse at that scale look like? As someone with limited understanding of just how a population of of 1.4 billion is ran…my ignorant thought immediately thinks….well, the US has 300 million and relatively speaking, we’re doing just fine. so if the Chinese losses 1 billion…that still leaves them with a population greater than the US to run things. I know there’s a huge hole in my understanding how demographics plays into the social/economic engine of a given nation…would you be so kind as to help me understand how a drop in demographics harms the Republic of China?
"how a population of of 1.4 billion is ran?" Semmes to me that the Chinese way is a bit like playing whack a mole. Just responding to whatever happens. The problem with a falling population is not necessarily a problem, but it is a problem when this is because of a falling birth rate or because all the boys at baby making age is killed in war. You end up with to many old people and to few to feed them.
To add to your final point Peter- if they are facing the threat of doom through war or internal collapse, at least going to war gives them a thread of chance at a win instead of a guaranteed loss if they do nothing. But like you said, the key here is to be Amoral about the human cost. Peak Thanos vibes
As a Taiwanese, your comments on Taiwan are always appreciated
Taiwan numbah one
Something Peter didn't mention. Don't you guys have explosives in the chip fabrication plants so if China is going to win they don't get those facilities?
My understanding was that it was a "poison pill," strategy, knowing that the destruction of your chip plants would create a worldwide depression and destroy Chinese trade even if the west didn't sanction China. Leading to the famine Peter mentioned.
What’s it like there? People scared?
I can see any aggressive acts on China's part, end in their own collapse. Taipei will be the next capital of a united China.
@@RebootedMind
You funny. China been acting like this since WW2.
The only problem I would say is, we been trying to tell the world about China acting as a snake, but no one listen or care. Suddenly the world is talking about it now? Lol
Dude we are one of the country that created the UN and the world kick us out. If the war actually happens, after they took Taiwan, it’ll be your problem. And we will help CCP to destroy the rest of the world just so you people can feel what it’s like by not listening to us at the first place.
And that, friends, is the best summation of the Taiwan situation I have heard to date. After 30 years spent in and around China and Taiwan I haven’t found anyone who makes more sense than Peter on this topic.
he predicts nothing, right? and contradict himself. you can also think CCP and XI are playing strategic ambiguity so that the west could not predict anyting. in the meantime, china keeps building its navy and other military power. the most important thing is china will get oil and food from russia and avoid all choke points the west prepared to contain china.
And the people would finally recognize how insane the CCP is. DON'T FORGET, Protesting against COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in the government backing down.
That's really sad.
Can you summarize what he said in your own words? Sucks when ppl just comment 'yup true I agree'
How exactly? AI bot
Peter's point that Xi might pull the trigger on an invasion of Taiwan just to keep the CCP in power is both depressing and, I believe, most accurate and perceptive. Thank you Peter for doing such a great job of keeping us enlightened on geopolitics!
I disagree. Xi has many faults but amoral is not one of them. he really does love China and the Chinese people although he is completely wrong and fucked in the head. Xi doesn't want to grab power solely for power's sake he wants power to shape China in his own moral image. there lies the problem because his own moral image is anti-growth and anti prosperity n anti-freedom.
I care about Taiwan only marginally more than I do about Ukraine.
Well said
@@robertshelton3796 without knowing how much you care about Ukraine that is rather a trite comment. I'm from the UK, and I think that supporting any other democratic nation is important, and especially those democratic nations threatened by dictatorships, that may one day come for us if we don't stand up to them as a whole.
@@robertshelton3796 You should care a lot about both, unless you believe that abdicating from its superpower responsibilities and letting China shape the world order will bring
US prosperity.
I’ve spent a lot of time working in China and Taiwan over the last 30 years as an engineer. Love Taiwan! It’s what China could have been if it had democracy, freedom and rule of law.
That is what is sad. Seeing Taiwan and South Korea, and seeing what China and North Korea could have been, but for communism.
As you'll know, then, much of Taiwan's growth occurred under authoritarian, one-party rule.
It's why the UK, USA, wtc. were happy to go along with the PRC-sponsored narrative to chuck them out of the UN.
Democracy did not significantly affect the trajectory of growth from an economic viewpoint.
@dw620 , is that the CCP official position? Thanks for letting us know.
CHINA has to stay that way to dynamically counter the attacks from the Enemy Races US/WEST,the repitilian strong hold Nations. There is NO differences, ( not too much) with its core HUMAN VALUES, which follow the UNIVERSAL LAWS and PRICIPALS established by the Ancient ONES regardless of the LABELS. What is called FREEDOM and Democracy are NOTHING but ILLUSIONS the the POPULACE can NEVER understand.
@@ralphholiman7401 I don't think he's a bot, he may actually have a point about single-minded growth with united populations- but ultimately it doesn't matter, since as we can see with China, there are serious weaknesses that come with authoritarian regimes that outstay their welcome. Places like Taiwan and Singapore seem to have avoided the pit before they fell in, and good for them.
The other problem China would have with taking over Taiwan's infrastructure is that Taiwan is VERY unlikely to allow the factories to fall intact. China not only doesn't know how to operate them, but Taiwan is likely to wreck them on the way out. So they'd also have to figure out how to repair them before they tried to learn t
Who is TAiwan? You speak as if he is a person
Scorched earth.
The factories will definitely be bombed to rubble when it becomes apparent China will capture them. The US will not allow China to gain a technology benefit from the capture of Taiwan.
On the way out to where? Would most of the relevant Taiwanese population flee the country? And to where?
The most advanced chips rely on some of the most advanced optics in the world. There is only one company that makes this equipment and they won't be the ones repairing it. I've worked in optics, and believe me, there is no way anyone is going to be able to reverse engineer that equipment.
I previously lived in China for 11 years. I have long said that the CCP sees war as a solution to one big problem: the vast number of young men who can't find jobs and also can't find wives (thanks to their failed one-child policy creating an insane gender imbalance with 118 men for every 100 women). I agree that the CCP may be willing to sacrifice millions of their own young men to both maintain their grip on power and to help reduce the vast number of single, unemployed young men to a somewhat more manageable number.
if Taiwan is not a viable option they could always attempt to reclaim those parts of Manchuria that are under Russian control.
@@httm241 They would never do it under their current leadership, simply because the entire Party has never outgrown their naive admiration for Russia (via early Soviet Union and Stalinist grooming of the future communist cadres). Even in children books it’s referred to as the “older brother”.
This is even more true now, especially after the current chairman took power - his real views are closer to hardcore Leninist worldwide revolution than anything else, and he inherited the aforementioned affection for their former sugar daddy.
I’d sooner bet on India despite the insane geographical difficulties involved.
@@Ufthak what other options are even left after that point?
Vietnam was a complete failure and there is nothing really to gain west of Xinjiang.
why you guys love to post nonsense? You talked as though Chinese are suffering !!! CCP has more than 90% popularity today confirmed by Western survey like Harvard.
If you go to China today , not 11 years ago, you see the future how the world will be and then you see your 3rd world when you go back
Did you see the opening ceremony of the ASIAN games?
No country in the world can even come close much less America way way far behind with lot of homeless while you find none in China.
hahahahahhah really ....
@@httm241 I mean central Asia has loads of raw resources that could be really helpful in the event that shipping lanes become unreliable so it wouldn't be a total waste to take it.
We tried to work with them for 40 years, and in the final analysis it was a completely wasted effort.
We used them to shake Russia, similar to the way we funded the SAMS to Bin Laden in Afghanistan to chase the Russians out. Life is more complicated than chess, no one could have foreseen the consequences. IMO, the world is being run by mad men, from Putin to the "World Economic Forum" to XI to US leadership. They all seem hell bent on confrontation and war.
Maybe it was worth trying, with them and Russia, but we vastly and naively overestimated the rest of the world's readiness for democracy. The majority of humans don't live under democracy and rule of law, and we learned in the last 20 years there's no way to change that from the outside.
dang... this was a interesting take and mostly true.
@@tristan7216 what makes you think if china was democratic it wouldnt be doing these things?
Who’s we?
When a crazy leader is surrounded by crazy people, crazy things can happen. I agree with Peter Zeihan on this one. If China 🇨🇳 starts an illogical war, it will be for illogical reasons. Hence the reason why living under a dictator is very scary.
You cannot be more wrong. There is NOTHING illogical here, only the blackest of Stalin/Hitler/Mao/Pol Pot Evil.
The US has already prepared the next cold war playbook. This is happening.
That’s just common sense that’s nothing new
So u agree Taiwan is part of china
China isn't the one trying to start a war. He just gave all these reasons why they wouldn't. I don't buy this demographics thing he harps on though. They have better demographics than the US does. They have over a billion people and they aren't bringing in garbage like the US is.
China starting an invasion of Taiwan to get the Chinese people forget about the domestic problems, is something that is very scary and also very possible in my humble opinion.
If I were president xi, I would attack Guam directly.
Last year Iran bombed US military bases and the US didn't dare do anything
What’s that quote, what this country needs is a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution. Except they’re never short, and seldom victorious
Xi putting his personal safety and fortune at risk to get the Chinese people to think something is the least informed "theory" I've ever heard.
It's western propaganda. China is just fine. Trillions of investments flowing into China from Middle East and they are gearing towards high tech.
Yes, but that isn’t needed in China. The CCP’s control over its citizenry is so complete that they can stoke a nationalistic frenzy with just a few propaganda hit pieces
Scary.
Peter, here is a question for you.
In its history the Chinese empire has formed and fallen apart several times. It is composed of separate peoples, languages, and cultures, much like the Russian Federation. Might the collapse of China bring about its division into its regional states becoming independent, i.e. Tibet, Mongolia, Xinjiang, etc.? Is there any chance some of these might become democracies?
Not likely, enormous Chinese empires have a tendency to be clingy, it's only when the ruling empire becomes both economically and politically bankrupt the regional states tend to break off. CCP is, by historic standards, still going very strong as a ruling empire. A decade later when its younger generation starts to dry up we'll have another look but in short term not likely.
Good question but, not to dim your hopes, I've never seen Peter (by name of course) reply to a comment. I think he's probably sorta busy.
Tibet barely has a population to be a fully functioning democracy. It most likely will be a princely country like Bhutan with Indian military backing. Mongolia is already independent. Xinjiang will not become independent because it has more Han Chinese now there than Uighurs.
None of those previous reformations occurred during a post-industrial demograghic collapse. More likely it turns into something that looks more like Afghanistan. Lots of tribal ethnic factions controlled by warlords, fighting over ill defined disputed territories and scarce resources.
China fought to hard to unify. They have the will to become a prosperous modern society and the west won’t be able to stop that. Stop copping
Reshoring manufacturing to North America looks better and better.
Mexico should do whatever it takes to keep Xi in power as long as possible
Who's going to be the slaves for said manufacturing? Illegals?
It's already happening. Quite a bit of incentives were offered in the bills passed by Biden and the dems. No podium pounding or harsh rhetoric. Just logical pro-active legislation.
Biden has been doing it for years now, unlike Trump, his daughter has business with CCP/Shangai
@@ryanreedgibsonits honestly crazy to me to see conservatives saying he was the worst president in human history when he literally just continued trumps policies and even made them stronger. But whatever people wannna believe what they wanna believe 🤷♂️
As Sun Tsu said, "An evil enemy will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes."
Sort of "it's better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven".
Ever since you were on Rogan I've watched every video you've released. Food for the brain 👊
Who is Rogan?
Broadly the same, it was a good advert for him.
@@LumenMichaelOne Your true father.
@@Halbaredit is why they do his podcast... and for one i am truly thankful for bringng Peter to my attention
Watching Rogan is more like poisoning the brain. That man is an absolute ass
I have finally come to the conclusion that I would prefer to listen to you rather than the news. You do not scare the hell out of me or make me feel hopeless about the state of the world, as opposed to the Machine. OMG, thank you, Peter.
Media machine drama makes me sick. They make themselves ridiculous because drama and horror sells, reality and balance be damned.
ALWAYS consider the irrational option. Lots of the history of this sad rock was made by irrational choices.
And prc ccp is an irrational player. Look at their policies that destroy their own country.
Out of curiosity, can we name a few of the most impactful examples?
@@JoshKaufmanstuff if I type the list of those things, the youtube algorithm will shadowban my comment and you won't see it
Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait
America invading Iraq
The Russians invading Afghanistan in the 1980s
The Americans invading Afghanistan in the 2000s
The Germans invading Russia in WW2
The Italians joining the Germans in WW2
The Germans listening to an Austrian before he started WW2.
The Japanese bombing Pearl Harbour and not getting the Aircraft carriers.
The Australians and New Zealanders trusting the British in WW1 and WW2 that they had a plan.
That whole Korean thing.
That whole Vietnam thing.
That stuff that happened in Mogadishu.
ALL that stuff in Israel & Palestine.
YEAH that list just keeps getting longer and longer the more I think about it and that just the last century and a bit.
@@JoshKaufmanstuff Barbarossa, Pearl Harbor, a certain Charlie Caplin look-alike declaring war on the US...
There is a very strong precedent argument in favor of that "dark scenario." Russia's demographic decline was observed since the early 2000s, and many geopolitical analysts including Mr. Zeihan suggested that the Russian state, also aware of this decline, would no longer have a sufficient population size to meet its military's current personnel needs (i.e. it would be overextended within its own borders) by the 2030s, and that as a result Russia would instigate a major military conflict before 2025 to either increase its population size through conquest or achieve borders/frontiers that would have smaller military staffing requirements. The war in Ukraine appears to be that major military conflict, though it does not appear that Russia will be able to achieve its strategic aims this way.
The PRC is in a similar situation, though in Red China's case it is not about lacking military personnel but rather lacking the sufficient numbers of appropriately-aged workers to sustain its current economic model, which by most assessments appears to be coming to a head within the next 10 years. As such, while a Chinese military action is not as directly correlated to the PRC's needs in the way Russian military action is correlated to Russia's needs, a Chinese military action against Taiwan serves other purposes related to state security. Notably, by taking over Taiwan's semiconductor plants, even though the PRC won't know how to operate them, they are then also non-functional for the rest of the world (it would be a temporary loss for the world due to the ability of other producers, notably the ROK, US, and Japan, to recover, but a blow in the short term nonetheless). Secondly, thanks to decades of the one-child policy, China has something like 50 to 100 million more males between the ages of 20-50 than females, some of them in the military; a major Chinese military conflict would put a dent in this gender gap as well as reduce unmet domestic consumption needs (due to fewer people as a result of military casualties). A Chinese military conflict would also turn its economy into a wartime economy, which would be a major stimulant. Lastly, a Chinese military conflict would strongly distract its increasingly-dissatisfied population from persistent domestic socioeconomic woes.
They don't need to do that anymore. The money is better spent on talent and development of their own breakthroughs.
As Nvidia CEO has warned, it is only a matter of time.
@@DeadManWalking-ym1oo oh I agree about the recovery from the semiconductor loss if Taiwan is lost - it would be at best a temporary blow if the PRC were to take them.
All of the things I mentioned favoring a Chinese military action (other than population decline) are relatively short-term effects; if the PRC truly does take long-term strategy seriously, it will find that the long-term disadvantages negate the short-term advantages of a military action.
I think they key point is the ease with which a few US submarine could blockade china. All theyd have to do is sit is the Indian ocean and block energy imports from the middle East and china is fucked within months.
@@ecthelion83 Yeah. I've never really found the invasion scenario compelling. Where Russia could argue their very survival probably does depend on a Ukrainian buffer state, China has grown and thrived with a Westernized Taiwan right there the whole time. It hasn't really changed their arc one way or the other, and in fact, it's probably helped them to some degree by ensuring the West had a compelling strategic interest in the region. Taking Taiwan is literally all downside and no upside.
@@DeadManWalking-ym1ooTSMC is already building in AZ. They should be online for the best chips humanity can make by this year or next.
*Peter, could you please comment on recent Indian-Canadian row?* Also the political outlook of Canada?
Peter, your videos have been mind expanding for me. 68 year old grandma here who lived through the Cold war.
Hi, Peter. I love your videos but is there any chance you can normalize your audio? Some are deafening, others are whisper quiet. It would help me greatly not getting caught slacking during my job if I could stick to one audio level
That closing was ice-cold. Thanks for the great work!
Volume is too low😊
For me i only hear it one ear
I have been saying this for a couple of years now to friends and coworkers. China's big move will not be Taiwan, it's going to be Russia. China is very patient. The more Russia continues to weaken militarily, the easier it will be for China to take vast amounts of land rich in natural resources that China lacks. China doesn't want the whole of Russia, only land with natural resources. Mostly oil!! That's my honest opinion.
Are you suggesting an invasion of Russia? I’ve considered this, too, but Russia has nuclear weapons … and a lot of them.
I'm not sure China would launch a full-fledged war. More like low-key military threats, and economic and diplomatic pressure to cede territory...large enough to be meaningful in terms of natural resources, but modest enough that a broke Kremlin would shy away from full-blown hostility to China, and be forced into accepting a "land purchase" for financial survival. Primarily on the fringes of Russia's eastern regions where the population is much lower.
All signs point to YES!
*increased military incursions into Taiwan’s economic zone
*Taiwan is on alert and monitoring ground force movements across the straight in China’s Fujian province
*China’s diesel production has surged by a factor of 3 while domestic commercial demand is sluggish
Businesses: Reorganize your supply chain.
Investors: Pull your money out.
Look what happened to Western businesses in Russia. BP, Shell, McDonald’s, Levi’s, etc...
Taiwan can defeat China if they are ruthless. If they destroy the 3 gorges and a few other dams they can kill an estimated 400 million Chinese. There's battle plans you can find on UA-cam. Taiwan would have to be willing to take these extreme measures.
And it isn't that far fetched as exported Chinese military equipment fails and hardly works. There's plenty of videos of countries complaining about the malfunctioning equipment. There has been leaks about the failures of their rocket force and the faking of the data so that's why it isn't that far fetched.
We have to consider that China re-manufactures brass sheets and lead needed for US ammunition production. Not only will costs surge for businesses that had relied on China since the Clinton era, China could shut off the flow of ammunition to its aggressors by refusing to process the expended raw materials.
@@dontcare7086
I don’t condone killing civilians and I would imagine the Taiwanese wouldn’t want to commit a war crime either.
That being said, do the Taiwanese have ordinance that can reach?
3 gorges is in Hubei, which is pretty much in the center of China.
Even if range wasn’t an issue, wouldn’t missiles or aircraft be intercepted before reaching the target?
@@TacticalTerry
We’re already seeing a preview with China’s export ban on gallium and germanium.
Let’s not forget their restriction of rare earth exports to Japan in 2010, after a Chinese fishing vessel rammed a Japanese Coast Guard ship. Japan ultimately found an alternative source.
I’ll reiterate; it’s time to de-risk the supply chain. We enjoyed cheap economic growth while turning a blind eye to slave labor, economic coercion, IP theft, ecological pollution, etc... That ride is nearing the end. The sooner we shift to alternative vendor nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam, India; the better.
As Peter keeps warning, free and secured shipping will not exist for everyone in the future. We know this, China knows this. It’s the reason why they’re developing Myanmar to bypass the Malacca Strait. It’s also the reason why they’re stockpiling food, fertilizers and fuel.
Get your money out of China while you can.
Thank you for your ongoing reporting on the issues of the day.
Always a happy morning after listening to Peter.
Peter, could you please make your daily updates on geopolitics 2-3 hours long going forward? Thank you in advance
Source ? Proof ?
Didn't he claim that China will never get chip materials
I live in China but I can say with confident that not a lot of people in China can REALLY read a map and do math
I live in the USA,,, same.
Most Americans can't either.
It's not about the IQ of Chinese population, which I believe is quite high if you look at the data. It's about their system of government.
Authoritarian governments can start wars just to distract their population and remain in power.
Lol i live in Oklahoma United States of America we are the same.
I live in the USA and I still haven't met someone who couldn't read a paper map lol.
I live in massachusetts, and most people here can do both. Is it a regional thing?
My left ear enjoyed this topic very much.
Sure. Depend on the US navy to provide security,and then start a war with said navy. Great plan. What could go wrong???
On another note,your final 'dark' take on the situation is exactly what has been swimming around my head lately. I just couldn't articulate it as well as you did. Thx Peter
Don't worry USA navy will help reduce USA population . 😂😂😂😂
From 300 million to just 3 million Americans . Thanks to china
Omg the darker side actually sound appealing!
not the best sound. very quiet.
Do you hear it in both ears? I’m only getting the left ear
@@Mehwhatevr all speakers yes
Dear Mr. Zeihan,
Could you please do an update video on the current global/USA oil situation? Thank you, been following for about a year.....amazing.
Peter, Peter, Peter, ... sound VOLUME!
And stereo
Audio was coming across low on my computer. Thanks for the content.
I do appreciate the point tou made in saying its not just the equipment but the personal that make those companies successful and that it would take most countries a decade to get it running puts into perspective how complicated that system is
This is where I come to get the news on world events. Thanks for the information.
Is the audio only in one ear for anyone else?
It's in both, but the left channel is much stronger
It's balanced for me. Maybe your headphone jack port is going.
Kinda, the right ear volume was very low.
On my iPad it’s very low
@@Leftatalbuquerque Bluetooth, but it’s probably what everybody else is saying. One channel is very loud, and the other channel is very soft.
Hi Peter, glad you picked up in my comment last week suggesting the same thing 😎
Am a big fan, and watch most of your videos, and I read your most recent book. And - I would SO LOVE to see you in some debates with people as well-informed and articulate as you are but who can effectively challenge some of your many confident assertions, and then hear your response and the ensuing dialogue. In the meantime, I truly love this channel.
You'll never see him debate any other geopoliticist because that would only serve to show how baseless all of his analysis really is!
@@klaasvakie Nonetheless, you are here watching it.
@@marksizer3486 it's my weekly comedy slot! Wouldn't miss it for the world. The most enjoyable part is reading all the comments and realizing how many sheep are out there that actually believe this drivel!
Whatever u say boomer
The sound is for too low. PLEASE CORRECT THE SOUND. The prior video was low also.
In this discussion, one can’t assume a rational (or at least within the margin of error of normative/moral/intelligent) actor in Chinese leadership. Everything you’ve already noted about Xi’s actions seems to telegraph that we may not be dealing with a perfectly rational agent-and this is exacerbated by the information vacuum he’s created around him.
Yeah...The same information vacuum of Mr. Putin after one full-blown year inside his Bunker. Every single Think Tank failed to identify a possible invasion. We reason; they don't.
So, in effect, "Xi does a Putin"... ~
I read a comment somewhere several months ago where he said Putin was suffering from "late in life dictator's disease". That makes a lot of sense. When a man reaches a certain age he has to face his own demise and also how those he cares about will fare, or, in the case of a leader, how history will remember him. Plus as you get older, I'm 70, you really just quit giving a f*ck. Let 'er rip, it's either death in a blaze of glory or dying of cancer with a tube up your *ss. I almost think it would be good to put an upper age limit on positions of power, say 60 at most, because of this. But, back to Pooty and Xi. I believe they're both 70 or so and I hope they aren't going to go out with a bang just to make a dent in the history books. It can be pretty dangerous to your life to not give a f*ck but dangerous to millions of lives when you are a leader and don't give a f*ck.
Always look forward to these videos, keep them coming!
Another factor: Because of decades of a one child policy and the tendency to see continuation of a family line as carried out by sons... China cannot absorb large scale casualties without quickly wiping out family lines, destroying Chinese culture and causing a quick and enormous backlash.... China cannot handle a protracted war because of this....Not to mention China's urbanization project means it cannot feed itself if the war spreads outside of a Taiwan limited conflict.
The argument that such a war would be irrational and counter-productive for China is an easy one to make but how many irrational decisions has Xi already made during his tenure?
Xi will probably do what he thinks is best for Xi rather than what is best for China, and even that stands a good chance of being wrong.
Remember how the world thought Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine because that would be crazy?
You think Xi is more rational?
It's true lose NG a ton of young soldiers (assuming Xi is told that's a possibility) would make the demographic inversion much worse... But I'm exchange they could blame the West and Japan for supporting Taiwan and claim the one child policy was fine. Never underestimate the desire of authoritarian officials to shift blame even if that makes things worse.
@@jackjones4824 They expected a quick capitulation and Ukrainians/Belarusians to boost their numbers in a new "Greater Russia".
I feel after every video Peter transforms into an owl and gracefully flies away in nature till the next video!!
Thank you Peter for your insight! I know I’ve been bugging you for this update for awhile and I greatly appreciate and value your take on this
Are you at peace now? Worry about your country. Uff!!!
@@DK-ev9dg don’t know what your problem is but take some time off your screen and think about your anger issues. It’ll do you good.
@@jimmywei2542 tell Peter the clown to start making assessments about American youth like why they shatter bus shelters? What his analysis says about it? Why they slash car tires for fun? Why they dream of killing their parents? Why they dream of killing their teachers? Why they loot stores for fun? Why they do drugs and do ther crimes and gun fight? Why they rape innocent vulnerable girls going home late at night for some reason. Why youth push elderly walking on the edge of the road to the oncoming traffic and push them in front of the trains? Why they are not spiritual? Can this clown with vast goofy knowledge about China throw some lights on these evils plaguing our society?
There's precedent for Peter's last point, which ups the likelihood of war. Over the last 100 years, there were plenty of Chinese leaders who were amoral enough to sacrifice astronomical number of lives just to hold power...CKS, Mao, Deng. Xi is no trail blazer here. A familiar playbook has already been written for him.
brilliant point! thus needs more likes!
Life sure is cheap in Asia. Hard to get a Western mind around how little human lives matter there.
the fact that
USA is in recession
USA demographics collapse going on
USA stirring up trouble against china knowing USA will die if it tried anything
USA losing wars in Afghanistan
Sanctions against china thinking that will ever help
Don't worry . Your kind is losing badly and it's awesome .
@@PolishBehemoth source ?
@@YourHineyness source ?
Apparently Peter has never read Shakespeare. People often do things because they covet something, not because it is rational.
Hey Zeihan, could you please record a counteroffensive update? Thank you!!
Well the CCP have shown us, from the 1950 to 70s that the population is expendable.
Supposedly Mao once said "if there are 600 million Chinese and 300 million die, there are still 300 million Chinese". I wonder if he then shrugged?
@@YourHineyness USA, if there are a million native Americans, we will make it 100. Let's Liberate the Oil.
Peter, when are you going in the PBD Podcast? That needs to happen.
The bad thing about bluffs is they get called.
You always make such a hard-core, rational, cold and persuasive case against autocracy’s. I love it.
It's like in the movie "Margin Call" when the CEO played by Jeremy Irons arrives to the staff meeting and justifies collapsing the company, thus triggering a economic free fall, in order to save 'the TOP'..
My left ear enjoyed this video Mr. Zeihan.
That last option is the one that has occurred to me a few times now after listening to discussions on events in China, though I wonder if it might equally be sparked by a mistake out in the field where China is seeing how far they can go against places like the Philippines and Taiwan, or with the internal hyper-nationalism spilling out too far. We know that they have stepped up preparations for war in recent years and are increasingly hostile to all foreigners, and even if that is not done because they want to start a war it still does not bode well for peacefully navigating this decade. Wars have been started with less hostility.
Also, the CCP would want to decimate the number of young single angry men within the nation with a war so they aren't as much a threat during the collapse
Voice Volume is low, adjust it is a must. I enjoy listening to your briefings.
For the Dark scenario: In this age of long-range missiles, Xi has to know that any war will be personal. He'll be spending what's left of his life on the run from bunker to bunker.
We need xi jin ping in white house now
Oh sweety . The bunker in white house will be a graveyard
Interesting, as usual. I am curious how you pull together so much information. The sound on this video is low and coming out of the left channel only.
Also regarding the microchip facilities. They would quite likely be damaged beyond repair or destroyed in any attempted invasion. Either by the Chinese themselves or the Taiwanese seeking to deny it to them.
The us military has already openly and publicly admitted those facilities are targetted for destruction to keep them out of chinese hands.
I have heard that the Taiwanese have a demolition plan for the semiconductor facilities in place in the event that defeat is immanent. Basically as a warning that if they come to take it, we will destroy it rather then giving it to you.
Peter, Xi is pronounced like She. Zh sounds like Gi. Thanks for doing what you do.
My worry is that if one front opens up, even if it's not a win for the one who opens it, might leave another front looking open to abuse. How many fronts can be focused on at the same time, especially when things can change faster than they could in '41.
He has a video for this topic. I believe last year. These two particular fronts draw from two different military vehicle and weaponry so the USA wouldn't have a problem enduring the two fronts.
Thank you Peter for the insight. May you continue in health & insightful vision.
I like the analysis very much. It is possible that he might pull the trigger for the reasons you explained before, but it also fits the rhetoric about the sacred war. The historic war between the West and China/Russia eternal friendship.
I know that's an scenario nobody wants to hear much less imagine. It is terrifiying. A war with no purpose but for a hope of dethroning America on the battlefield.
It’s not even about dethroning America. It’s about the CCP controlling the narrative that it is right. And by controlling the narrative, it will brainwash its people for untold generations with its rhetoric. That is how far they will go to control their “position”. To me, that’s terrifying and something needs to be done about it (not sure what though).
There's no eternal friendship between China and Russia. They've had more conflicts over their own shared border than either side has actually had with the Americans. And last time China made a push on India over their shared border, Russia not only took India's side, they assisted arming India with Migs and other modern weaponry. Putin and Xi tell the world they're friends, but they would each stab the other in the back first chance they got.
I’m sorry, but China and Russia are not friends, more like convenient Allie’s. The Russians never forgot who betrayed them during the Cold War (the Chinese) and the Chinese always envied Russia’s position in global politics. If anything, the Russian could always become knives pointed to the back of China, they just have to figure out how to do that.
Interesting
Source trust me bro
Peter please raise your volume !!!!
It is worth pointing out that the man who planned the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor knew Japan would lose any extended war with the US. There was a (obviously misguided) hope that if the US Navy was hit hard enough early, we would sue for peace on terms favorable to Japan, rather than engage in a long, costly war.
Xi may make a similar calculation, hoping that if he takes Taiwan quickly, the US and our allies will decide it isn't worth a major conflict. I personally think this would work out for China about as well as it did for Japan. The only debate I hear in US policy towards China is each side accusing the other of not being tough enough on China.
Japan also had two years of oil left after the US embargoed their oil supply. They decided it was better to start a war when the US was relatively unprepared and hope for the best rather than waiting for the country to grind to a halt.
Let's hope the Chinese know the history of WW2.
I think what really screwed them was that the US carriers were out at sea and not in Pearl Harbor to be sunk on that day.
Peter, not sure if anyone had informed you; your microphone level is a bit low, in almost all of the videos I have seen. I'm assuming you're using your phone to record, so I recommend an external mic. Since you're outdoors most of the time, get one w/ the wind muff.
I think an ever increasingly powerful military Japan, will also act to check the CCP’s expansionist aspirations. Especially, if they are armed with nuclear weapons. Excellent assessment, as always.
Good point
doesn't their demographic situation put a ceiling on the japanese military potential?
@@delfinenteddyson9865Yes, certainly, but if we're talking maritime warfare (not "boots on the ground") then personnel numbers are smaller. They may get smaller still as drones/missiles do more of the work.
Japan would be the natural balance of power to China, military as well is far superior to China, China has numbers, but the quality of training, ships engineering and the amount of corruption when it comes to cutting corners, like we seen in the toofu buildings, infraastrature in China to looking at the amount of corruption is so deep i am not all that concerned with a military conflict, in all honest it needs to happen so that China gets its ass kick as it needs to be put in there place.
The japanese don't have nukes. And even if they would decide today to get them (highly unlikely) it would take a decade at least to get enough to threaten china.
Did you not bring a mic or did you drop it a couple miles down the mountain?
With all due respect, the Chinese dont need to do anything with the Taiwanese semiconductor infrastructure. They just need to make sure that the Taiwanese can't either in order to achieve their goals.
Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln!?
A nation that has absolutely no value for human life can be a terrifying thing for those countries that do value human life.
That’s why we who doesn’t live in USA are terrified of americans!!
Really, ignorance is bliss. 😂
It's the national equivalent to a psychopathic serial killer.
U defined USA
@@YourHineynessthat's USA
Never assume rationality in national leaders, especially in these dictatorship.
Im Chinese and know my history a bit, it actually makes a lot sense from a cultural perspective
Do you think it will happen at q certain point ?
You are not Chinese.
Here's your 50 cents. Damn man, you're running me out of quarters!@@DK-ev9dg
Living & Watching from china
Glad someone else realizes this. I've been saying the same thing about Russia too, that they might use nukes even if it results in extensive damage to their country because the damage they would also inflict on other countries would allow them to retain a semblance of parity going into the next era of geopolitics.
How dark and elegant you are with such a clear sense of prejudices blinding your eyes.
Over-water invasions are far,far more difficult than overland invasions. The Taiwanese have the US supplying the muscle to prevent the Chinese from succeeding in such a venture,as well as well thought out defenses on Taiwan itself. Resupply of an invasion force would have to be by sea,and ships can and would be easily sunk.
From what I understand, an amphibious landing on a fortified coast is about the most difficult mission a military can try. Perhaps someone here with a military background might correct me if necessary. The Chinese military has no actual war experience, many of their weapons are patterned (stolen) from the Soviets and we have seen in Ukraine they aren't always the best, and, let's face it, their weapons are made in China, the land of tofu-dreg everything. There is absolutely no logical reason for Xi to invade Taiwan and think he can win. But human beings are not always logical now are they?
@@YourHineyness If China did invade,they could kiss their economy goodby. The US is their largest trading partner.
Hello sir. Big fan. Could you please use a portable microphone to enhance tour audio? I use you vids in some of my lessons . Keep up the great work.
Going down in flames, taking everyone else with him, is just what the doctor ordered; seems to be a rather common philosophy in such circumstances.
Feeding the UA-cam algorithm. Informative video. Thanks.
Left ear
Good I’ve been asking around and finally somebody else. It’s not just my phone then
Cheerful information to wake up to on a Monday morning :)
People dont always act rationally. When you are staring down a fight, you have to have some varible irrationality so that people cant predict what you will do. Good warfare is sort of chaotic and unpredictable.
Hmmm u defined USA
The right channel of the audio is out.
At some point the CCP *must* take Taiwan. Simply by existing it demonstrates to the Chinese people that a civilisation based on Chinese culture can be free, democratic, and prosperous. The CCP deal with their people has always been: accept authoritarianism and you get prosperity in return. Taiwan is proof that other, better, options are possible.
"Dark?" That's frightening..and quite possible.
Anytime I see a discussion on the potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan, there seems to be an assumption that it would be a successful operation for China. Is it safe to assume that the Chinese military is functionally capable of pulling off an invasion of that magnitude? According to Wikipedia the Taiwan strait is 81 miles at its narrowest point so similar to what the allied powers had to cross for the Normandy invasion. Inherent difficulties of an amphibious invasion, lack of combat experience, dysfunctional leadership structure, a keen and watchful opponent, and unknown defensive capabilities all suggest to me China might not be able to pull it off in the first place. Would love to hear Peters thoughts on this!
What they have going for them is a lot of boats.
A Taiwan invasion would be like one of those Zombie games. China has lots of stupid robot soldiers that will obey.
China is what we were in 1941, a manufacturing power unparalleled globally. We overwhelmed the Germans with production, China would be the ones doing that now. Of course, we had and still have uninterruptable domestic supplies of energy, ore, and other raw materials, and China does not... so that would not go well for them 😸
key different: they didnt have accurate long range missiles, nor 100 million spare men, and nukes for the normandy invasions.
Would seem unlikely that China could muster an invasion force without intelligence agencies noticing and tipping off their hand. If Biden was telling the truth that the US and presumably other allies would defend Taiwan from invasion, what assets could or would be used to counter the attack? I imagine some sort of nuclear strike would be pretty effective at stopping such a force making their way across the strait. Very interesting thought experiment!
Audio is bad
I miss your longer lectures.
Russia has vast mineral resources and grows lots of food. China can build many things quite well. This perhaps makes both of those neighbours less dependent on everyone else than many people would suggest.
russia grows lot of food? Mate the "food" they grow the grains they have are for pastures and animals not human consumption. Low quality
China can build many thing quite well as long as they have foreign machines and expertise to access to
@@miraphycs7377 Whether their grain is used for animals or human consumption, it still exists and the Russians can allocate it to wherever seems optimal to them. I understand that until recently Russia exported significantly more grain than even Ukraine. Also, to some extent the quality and technological advancement of Chinese manufactured goods is not entirely relevant because access to manufactured goods is essential and there are work-arounds that enable use of old tech.
BTW, personally I am not a fan of the regimes in either country. What concerns me is that videos such as this one may lead us to underestimate our enemies.
Well the last point pretty much confirms my suspicion that I commented on the video a week ago. Thank you, Peter 😉
I’m reminded of how the Japanese in WW2 kinda knew they couldn’t ultimately win if it really came down to a war. But, they attacked anyway, in some sort of messed up gamble that they *might* win.
they knew that the longer they waited the smaller the chance of victory.
@@captainalex157 still a hell of a gamble.
@@TitusCastiglione1503 they thought the muricans were cowards and cave in after pearl harbour. big oof
Japan - and the Japanese people - thought they could win. The plan was to force the work alongside Axis elements to force the UK to surrender at which point the US would lose interest and return to isolationist mode.
They may have been under the illusion that the US wouldn't escalate but that's a separate matter.
Correct. They told the Emperor that all sorts of surprises occur in war and they would just have to hope for the best. Essentially like rolling a 13 on a pair of dice.
Thank you, for making sure I don't start my day off with too much optimism!
As knowledgeable as Peter is, and as much as I like his information, I’m still skeptical on the collapse of China entirely. Absolutely no one can accurately predict if it’s going to happen
I think that when he says collapse he means collapse of their economic model/systems more so than a break apart collapse
dude is a one-trick pony trying to sell books in a world where no one reads
@@ryanlewis8954he gets 100's of thousands of dollars to speak at events, I don't think he minds too much if his books don't sell
This is a nice uplifting thing to see first thing in the morning before going to work :/
Time to unpack the crisis between Canada and India. How ill advised is Canada on creating an international spat, going public with alleged activities that, let's face it, all states undertake.
Trudeau has shown such poor leadership with China on the international stage, an utter humiliation, and now is doing the same with India.
It's hard to believe such a (previously at least) manly country like Canada could have such a douche as leader. Sergeant Preston would be appalled.
Peter being able to see every point of view is how I know I can rely on his core opinions more than the average commentator out there
Hi Peter, I’m very curious about the demographic collapse of a country that is 1.4 billion…most likely a lot less. What does a demographic collapse at that scale look like? As someone with limited understanding of just how a population of of 1.4 billion is ran…my ignorant thought immediately thinks….well, the US has 300 million and relatively speaking, we’re doing just fine. so if the Chinese losses 1 billion…that still leaves them with a population greater than the US to run things. I know there’s a huge hole in my understanding how demographics plays into the social/economic engine of a given nation…would you be so kind as to help me understand how a drop in demographics harms the Republic of China?
China has 950m youth that want to change the world for the better. Real disaster is Japan and England. Peter the clown only wants to talk about China
less slaves making widgets means less money for the ccp. less chinese internal consumers of their own stuff means less money for the ccp.
"how a population of of 1.4 billion is ran?" Semmes to me that the Chinese way is a bit like playing whack a mole. Just responding to whatever happens.
The problem with a falling population is not necessarily a problem, but it is a problem when this is because of a falling birth rate or because all the boys at baby making age is killed in war. You end up with to many old people and to few to feed them.
That's USA UK France Japan Korea . All falling demographics
@Tracchofyrethat's USA
Peter is the best! I’d like to hear his take on Central Europe.
To add to your final point Peter- if they are facing the threat of doom through war or internal collapse, at least going to war gives them a thread of chance at a win instead of a guaranteed loss if they do nothing. But like you said, the key here is to be Amoral about the human cost. Peak Thanos vibes
They can't "win" with that war, the results will always be net negative.