The Fed's No-Win Situation, Fragility Of Valuations, And Coming Chaos With Hugh Hendry
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- Опубліковано 13 чер 2024
- The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry joins Julia La Roche again, this time in New York's East Village, for an in-person, unfiltered conversation on macro and more.
Links:
Twitter/X: / hendry_hugh
Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
UA-cam: / @hughhendryofficial
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome
1:36 Macro view and the Fed’s no win situation
2:45 Revisiting financial history
4:20 The U.S. has become the economic locomotive of global growth
5:00 Policy error of fiscal conservatism
6:30 Everything is expensive
7:52 Invest 10% of net worth
9:00 Hugh’s hedge fund years
12:24 ‘To manage a lot of money you have to be serious.’ - the suits
19:07 Looking at charts and patterns while listening to Pink Floyd
24:30 China
36:19 The bubble today - the fragility of valuations
38:00 How you want to be allocated
44:16 The conceit and the arrogance of a well-formed argument
47:00 Hugh’s mistake buying Reader’s Digest in the 90s
48:48 Hugh’s go-to interview question: Tell me when you know it’s going wrong
50:44 Gold’s breakout - not an agent of chaos, the alchemy of chaos
52:24 Japanese Yen
53:49 Bitcoin
57:09 Silver
1:01:50 The Fed’s no win situation
1:04:00 Japanese Yen
1:06:49 Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates
1:08:47 Present danger
1:11:30 The death of money?
1:15:00 Millennials and bitcoin
1:18:48 The Bono story
#bitcoin #gold #investing
Nice of Hugh to wear his formal tank top
It's distracting. The reason for office wear is so you aren't distracted so you are focussed on what the substance is. He and Julia actually look very similar on the tanks but what the heck is he wearing over the tank, it's a kind of combat jacket/bag. It's kind of showing off his body.
Huge fan of Julia - you do a great job of bringing out the best of the people you interview - this was no exception.
Honestly, this is one of the nicest things someone could say. Thank you so much. I genuinely love listening to and learning from my guests. 💙
Wholeheartedly agree
Huge fan of Hugh. He's informative and entertaining. I like hearing his perspective. I get tired of Wall St. rhetoric.
The first thing I learnt was - never judge a person by looks.
I myself dress like crap on purpose - met some amazing genuine people. Became my best friends.
The richest guy i know, a canned fruit importer, dresses like a bum, with old shoes, not shaved and a plastic Casio. The only thing that gives him away its his pristine white teeth
This guy's sartorial audacity is pretty out there but he also comes across as very articulate & well educated. The observations he made about the situation in Japan - very noteworthy.
Well said - “the rug pissers did this?”
that's intention al and part of his charm
I enjoy Hugh's point of view and as someone that did a wee bit of acid I believe he may have some limited experience as well. It's a different worldview.
Macro econ with a wife beater and a leather vest/shoulder holster. F-ing love it!
Lol
I taking a deep smoke as I watch .....but I am not inhaling
Hugh you are the best. Thank you for being authentic. I hope to meet you someday.
Makes me feel better about losing my train of thought! Wish I had a Julia to save me at those times!
Hugh Hendry gives no fucks whatsoever about dressing "professional." That's what a boss of his own money looks like.
When I saw the thumbnail, I was looking forward to listening to Hugh cause I'd been warming up to his appearances on other channels,...
clicked on it an it went down hill fast.
First he criticizes fiscal conservatives and says deficits are great,.. so he's a member of the insane Jim Jones cult church of MMT. That would explain the glasses,
Then he mentions he's got a relationship with America hater and destroyer George Soros.
Then he zones out for a while and loses all focus on something,... so maybe he ought to lay off the mushrooms.
And then he says he likes gold and "bobby digital" or some nonsense forShitcoin.
(NoteShitcoin has no intrinsic value, it pays no dividends,... yada yada yada,,... if you think fiats are bad,. thenShitcoin is a fiat on steroids,.. or in Hugh's case mushrooms.)
The last one is kind of insanely ironic in that were it not for criminal fiscal deficits he says are so good,..
that are in reality are bankrupting America,
destroying the purchasing power and the middle class,
rendering the dollar worthless,..
there'd be no market or buyers of gold andShitcoin.
he only has 5 million, boss ??
@@zelarekauuuuhhhhh no
You sound like a boss of being poor.
IM growing my hair and beard and wearing old digs will see if this works for me.
Loved this one. It's great when you allow a guest to just talk. Julia, I love your show and your hosting style.
Dude loves mushrooms...what a G!
Wonderful interview!
Great interview Julia! Love Hugh Hendry and you did a great job keeping his wandering brain on course!
The locomotive has no brakes -Lyn Alden or Luke Groman
Great stuff, i like Hugh a straight shooter
❤❤amazing vid ❤❤ love this pod and Hugh Hendry 🎉🎉😊
awesome sauce...between the excellent adventure and fast times...and seriously knowing what you are talking about. 😎
Perfect statement 😊
Hugh on fire here, at his best in this interview. Rock on brother.
this is so precious !!!
Hugh is great, I like his insights into the economy and his attitude toward investing. "And if you over commit, you don't make the completion of the journey", love it.
Hugh is fascinating, love his unique perspective on life and markets.
58:10 “…there’s a point where you’re not right, you get timed out.”
Really enjoyed this conversation, Hugh explained his thoughts very clearly and candidly
A real person I trust because they are real. A suit with a one way narrative I run from, excellent interview!
When I saw the thumbnail, I was looking forward to listening to Hugh cause I'd been warming up to his appearances on other channels,...
clicked on it an it went down hill fast.
First he criticizes fiscal conservatives and says deficits are great,.. so he's a member of the insane Jim Jones cult church of MMT. That would explain the glasses,
This insane incompetent corrupt senile ole joe admin and the MMT demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it defictis spending adding 2 to $3 trillion to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over than was spent the year before it started,... and we're not even in a recession,...
They say like this clown did,.. the economy is great.
If it's doing so pheckinggreat,.. then why the need to unprecedentedly deficit spend $2 to $3 trillion each year???
Then he mentions he's got a relationship with America hater and destroyer George Soros.
Then he zones out for a while and loses all focus on something,... so maybe he ought to lay off the mushrooms.
And then he says he likes gold and "bobby digital" or some nonsense forShitcoin.
(NoteShitcoin has no intrinsic value, it pays no dividends,... yada yada yada,,... if you think fiats are bad,. thenShitcoin is a fiat on steroids,.. or in Hugh's case mushrooms.)
The last one is kind of insanely ironic in that were it not for criminal fiscal deficits he says are so good,..
that are in reality are bankrupting America,
destroying the purchasing power and the middle class,
rendering the dollar worthless,..
there'd be no market or buyers of gold andShitcoin.
Totally agree with you about simplistic views on percentages on AUM. I really don’t think most people have an understanding of hedging. Well done once again, Hugh! We love you and I will definitely be picking up your book when it is published ❤
Even smart people are not guaranteed to make money. I like that. The market is a bucking bronco- I like that too. Ok I will shut up and just listen and maybe get a nugget of insight. I think he is a nice guy.
The adage applies. "Don't judge a book by it's cover." Great interview. 🙂
Love this bro lol
Hugh fascinating, educational and fun 🫶
Ask him to sing Bloody Sunday!
Wow, Fantasia, incredible analogy ha! Great.
Great podcast. First time I watched Julia's podcast
Thank you so much! Glad you enjoyed it. You might also like our first-ever conversation, which was episode 4.
ua-cam.com/video/P5_DtWxQzkE/v-deo.htmlsi=tAyqdWMRzdTisPmb
I will. And I will listen to a few other interesting ones like with Bill Ackman. Thanks!
The line between genius and insanity is VERY thin in Hugh Hendry. I would never let him manage my money :D
That Bono Story though - World Class!
"The future kinda finds me; and it whispers to me. "
I think this is where Julia got him at a weak moment and has by default come up with one of the best interviews with Hugh.
Im not sure if most watching this actually understand what he is talking about with regards to Generalities.
This interview should be taught in Senior High Schools to actually help them learn about "MONEY" & how it works.
This is the uncle I wished I had growing up
Fiscal conservatives in US held the world back- WTF. Invest through debt yes. Malinvestment with debt is a disaster. And that is what we in the US are doing now with “ green energy” wars that don’t achieve anything but suck our dollars and make insiders rich. But I will try to listen maybe there is something here.
💯
Exactly,...
This insane incompetent corrupt senile ole joe admin and the MMT demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it defictis spending adding 2 to $3 trillion to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over than was spent the year before it started,... and we're not even in a recession,...
They say like this clown did,.. the economy is great.
If it's doing so pheckinggreat,.. then why the need to unprecedentedly deficit spend $2 to $3 trillion each year???
When I saw the thumbnail, I was looking forward to listening to Hugh cause I'd been warming up to his appearances on other channels,...
clicked on it an it went down hill fast.
First he criticizes fiscal conservatives and says deficits are great,.. so he's a member of the insane Jim Jones cult church of MMT. That would explain the glasses,
Then he mentions he's got a relationship with America hater and destroyer George Soros.
Then he zones out for a while and loses all focus on something,... so maybe he ought to lay off the mushrooms.
And then he says he likes gold and "bobby digital" or some nonsense forShitcoin.
(NoteShitcoin has no intrinsic value, it pays no dividends,... yada yada yada,,... if you think fiats are bad,. thenShitcoin is a fiat on steroids,.. or in Hugh's case mushrooms.)
The last one is kind of insanely ironic in that were it not for criminal fiscal deficits he says are so good,..
that are in reality are bankrupting America,
destroying the purchasing power and the middle class,
rendering the dollar worthless,..
there'd be no market or buyers of gold andShitcoin.
The guy is over rated. He's not cool,.. he's a clown.
The EV issue really shows some people cannot distinguish between types of investments. Borrowing money and putting it into terrible fantasy investments is a recipe for disaster. Green energy is based on unicorn fantasy analysis. Might as well flush our fortunes down a toilet. Same with excessive uncontrolled welfare state and helicopter money. All down the toilet but people did make money during the run up( then slinked away with the money )
But this guy does understand more than one would think by the look. He knows boring products can have long term value.We will need fossil fuel for a long time long time.
The club was called SAVE THE ROBOTS. I met RuPaul there, before "fame" took over. This was early 90's. There is a Wiki entry with more details. The last wild period of NYC night life. Now, its the Speakeasy era, with IG swagger.
awesome
Great stuff, thanks again!
Europa Union 💶 is out performing everyone acid capitalist :-)
Liked the insight that starts around 32 min
awesome interview! Both of you are great. It would be great to see an interview from St Bart and a follow up on the St Bart culture.... wish I was a big enough cabbage to be part of the tribe. just a thrifty old man trying to hang on to hanging the lower rungs of the middle class ladder. Kudos for the great content.
I didn't realise U2 frontman has now become a financial advisor...
His Bono story comes up at the very end of the interview!
I didn't know Johnny Depp ran a macro hedge fund 😂😂😂
This is why I force myself to listen to the entire interview- I actually did get something out of this interview and ended up liking this guy. But I still hate Soros.
A quarter of the way through I realized that “the coming chaos” was actually referencing his stream of consciousness…
Obviously, a disciple of the “the dude”. The dude abides!!
🔥
*A+*
Regards -
33:33 i wanna show you guys something......did you even smell out the 5.65 being the 3 before the roll lower?
For the records the Italian financier in Lugano was Alberto Foglia of Banca del Ceresio. While unknown, he brought big customers to Soros, including the late Gianni Agnelli.
To say what he says, one must present oneself as abstract.
What kind of watch is he wearing?
4:40: The U.S. has “found the right gear for fiscal policy? The tragedy of fiscal conservatism?” What fiscal conservatism? The U.S. has run an aggregate fiscal deficit of approximately $9 trillion over the past 4 years. Approximately $0.62 of every $1.00 goes to one social program or another. The purchasing power of the Dollar has been greatly diminished and there is little if any “real” growth in the United States as CPI is woefully understated. The United States has zero fiscal restraint. This can't end well.
@36:35 I'm kind of a four standard deviation person, you all really aren't on my level but I'll try to dumb this down for yuou
Hugh still hates Silver 🥈 😃 The DAX 40 🇩🇪 made a new ATH today 💪💪🤗✌️
Really really good interview, especially the part about the death of money. I truly believe Hugh is on the money (and I have came to the same conclusion years ago). We're facing the bubble of all bubbles and when it goes 'pop', it will be like 1929 or the Fall of Rome. Fascinated about Hughs or anyone elses views on the 'death of money'. What do you do with your capital when everything's falling in price (this could happen in the next few years). Could you dig into this a more with Hugh/future guests that share similar views. Edit: You can clearly tell the bubble is in 10-year treasuries when the yen goes to 200-1 and other currencies crash and the US dollar goes skies, sovereigns will repatriate their capital from the US which - in turn - will send US10's to the rook (i.e. bond prices crashing -> banks crashing -> real estate crashing -> risky assets crashing). Actually maybe the safe heaven is stocks, gold and bitcoin this time around - who knows
Noonr that runs money for anyone will recommend physical gold or silver. The problem is playing with paper claims when the music stops and one is without a chair can wipe out all speculative gains where assets outside the system could leave one sitting pretty.... On a golden and silver throne
Brill : P
30:00 btw gartleys dont end on 886 but Im no preaux you guys....Just like coach cant tell when his 3 driver hits
How'd you get him to leave the island 🏝???
Bee 🐝 well all
The word salad king
Hugh is cooler than the other side of the pillow
Oh Hugh..
It’s difficult to take someone wearing a tank top seriously on matters of finance
Agreed. I thought it was disrespectful. Wrong vibe for the topic and conversation.
The posh accent should negate your suspicions.
indeed, Glasgow’s undoubtedly the poshest part of the UK.
He reads Pettis and Napier. And a lot more. He thinks for himself. Don’t discount.
It’s a wife beater
So Hugh made a fortune for a decade playing with the financial status quo (wearing his suit and tie and glasses) lost his 'touch', and now he is telling stories at the local bar about how things are (were). I like him and enjoy some of his esoteric comments that ring true (particularly on other interviews I have heard where he seems more 'coherent' ). But at the end of the day just reinforces to me how insane and warped our current financial sytem is. Kudos to you Julia for hanging in there and even using your charm to keep the conversation going. All good except I am not selling my gold mining stocks even though I am an obvious idiot....
Come on Hugh, at least a shirt for Julia. And that vest? Looks like you just got in from an all nighter.
Bono?
I could not handle the pressure of being responsible for peoples investment money.
Can I have a bit of the KoolAid he had?
Who are these fiscal conservatives he speaks of?
Huckster Pimping 1. his book 2. bitcoin 3. cannabis 4. his paywall 5. his BRAND BRAND BRAND. Huckster
Timing is not the important thing. Timing is the only thing
33:49 Andre should step in and correct your harmonic errors
butterflies dont end in 1.618
sloppy AF the more I look at it
A self described “private dancer” making influencer money 💰
Ok I was right- listening to Pink Floyd and channeling “ patterns” oh my - there are other forces involved he is missing - the movement of money and a herd following and putting more and more in
Bitcoin is not an asset. ballsy to expect btc mkt cap to approximate gold mkt cap.
At least watch the film if you are going to reference it.
I hate to say it but I would buy him a sandwich and a coffee if I saw him on the streets. COMON your on a podcast at least wear a shirt dude.
Sweaty Capitalist...😁
Easy for a foreigner whose made millions off of the effects of sky-high deficits to tell us to abandon fiscal conservativism. He won't be around when the younger generations will have to deal with the devastating financial and monetary consequences.
I think you're absolving the part played by the younger generations. They have been [the most] ignorant, vacuous, ill-educated group in modern human history. What I see is an entitlement to a certain way of life that no-one prior has enjoyed. They celebrate anti-white racism (based on a fantasy of history), Islamic terror, fascism (in its actual form), hatred of their own culture, ignorance of said history, rainbows and race Marxism, hatred of freedom of speech (again ignorance of history), censorship, and general emotional incontinence, then they blame others for their pain. If they'd have been educated and not mentally retarded to such a high degree (as a percentage of the over all cohort) politicians could not have pulled the wool over their eyes making them in love with the nanny state.
The young are overwhelmingly socialists, and they are therefore voting for their own poverty. They think this is capitalism, it isn't, it's corporatism that is in bed with socialism. It can't work any other way. Corporatists team up with the socialists and with any socialist system, you have the have's and the have-not's. The have-nots are the majority. However, so many young people get their ignorance from social media. The truth is the inverse of what they believe. The rest of us know this. It is impossible to employ younger people. Their socialist belief system makes them unemployable for serious work; it is why everything is failing. The competence has left the room in every company, institution and in the corridors of power. People in their 40's like me are even retiring because we can't stand the rainbow bullshit that serves no purpose except to make planes fall out of the sky (see Boeing for a literal example as well this being a metaphor for everything else). These are hard pills for the young to swallow. Hating your country, your history, your skin colour all based on lies the young believe makes them an utterly useless cohort, and a national security threat to boot, which pulls stock markets, increases volatility and things collapse. This benefits no-one. We all suffer due to the young's ignorance. If everything's collapsing, I'm going to make money in the volatility first. Until truth rears its head and the young understand that what they believed was a lie, nothing will change.
Undershirt, beads, dark glasses, and greasy hair. If you walked into an investment advisors office, and this guy came out to talk with you, would you leave?
No
It means he doesn't need your money to make his way.
Yea
I'd prolly know who I was about to deal with before walking thru the door...
Wifebeater shirt disrespect aside,.. when I saw the thumbnail, I was looking forward to listening to Hugh cause I'd been warming up to his appearances on other channels,...
clicked on it an it went down hill fast.
First he criticizes fiscal conservatives and says deficits are great,.. so he's a member of the insane Jim Jones cult church of MMT. That would explain the glasses,
Then he mentions he's got a relationship with America hater and destroyer George Soros.
Then he zones out for a while and loses all focus on something,... so maybe he ought to lay off the mushrooms.
And then he says he likes gold and "bobby digital" or some nonsense forShitcoin.
(NoteShitcoin has no intrinsic value, it pays no dividends,... yada yada yada,,... if you think fiats are bad,. thenShitcoin is a fiat on steroids,.. or in Hugh's case mushrooms.)
The last one is kind of insanely ironic in that were it not for criminal fiscal deficits he says are so good,..
that are in reality are bankrupting America,
destroying the purchasing power and the middle class,
rendering the dollar worthless,..
there'd be no market or buyers of gold andShitcoin.
Bitcoin and bono lol
31:47 the wizard says #germany stays German by the amount of Vril in the system....Even though Germany industrial Production is negative 12% y/y #DAX NEW HIGHS. hahahahahahaha
story hasn't changed now we watching just to see if its the front run the whole time....kinda like buy Yen beginning 2024
this guy has gotten every single call wrong. tilts to moon.
ya, come back after the stock market crash by the end of this year!! then what? you won't show up for sure or give a million excuses like the rest of financial experts!
Hugh Hendry who is 55 but looks 70 dissing Bono (better looking) who is 65. That is funny. I do not see the resemblance AT ALL.
Is Julia actually a millennial and not a generation Z? …if millennial doesn’t own a house at this point like what have you been doing for the past 40 years?
Lived in NYC
Your choice is yours. I'm sure you're aware that owning a home in NYC is a significant investment, and one that requires a substantial income. But if you're willing to commute from the surrounding areas, it's definitely achievable. If you do decide to buy a house, you can always refinance if interest rates drop. However, based on my observations, it's unlikely that we'll see interest rates below 3% again. I'm not fond of the current situation, as everything seems overpriced. Unfortunately, there's little we can do about it. But since you have more influence in these matters, I'm counting on you to make a change happen.
Don't like the same ole Presidential choices?
Kennedy 2024 🇺🇸
The west is doing well? This dude is the type that loves to hear himself talk. As the USA is tanking he says all is good. We shall see real soon.
Outperforming the rest of the world means the best turd in the bowl