The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation | Bill Fleckenstein
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- Опубліковано 24 чер 2024
- Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.
Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.
Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver. He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility.
Links:
Book: www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bub...
Twitter/X: / fleckcap
Website:www.fleckensteincapital.com/
Takeaways
The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.
The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't.
The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.
The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility.
Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions.
Chapters
0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein
0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters
4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid
6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator
10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not?
13:30 End game - long end of the bond market rates rise
18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology
23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake
26:30 The economy and millennials
29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped
34:44 Silver
37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion
#gold #inflation #investing
Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this episode featuring the legendary Bill Fleckenstein. A huge shoutout to everyone who recommended him, especially @issenvan1050! Let me know who else I should bring on. Be sure to subscribe too. 💙Julia
Please interview TedSpeaks channel.
Take all the time you need.
GARY STEVENSON!!! Author of London's Sunday Times best seller: The Trading Game. He was Citi's top trader before he quit. He is also an inequality economist. Great read, great guy! PLEASE interview him.
@@acornsucks2111 I don't like the soundbites. I love listening to the full answer. 😊
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Bill Fleckenstein is the best and most authentic person I have heard in a very long time (and I am 74 years old ). It is a privilege to hear him interviewed. Thank you so much !!!
Good interview. My 2 cents. When inflation hit in the 70s, on a household level, women went into the workforce and assisted in moderating it in the household budget. We no longer have that second stream of income as a cushion. Fast forward to the 80s and 90s and the U.S. got hooked on cheap imports that reduced inflation. We're screwed this time around.
Good point.
The answer is obvious… time to ask the wife to add another wife… win in bed and win in life 🤙
You forgot cheap sex, cheap religion and cheap drugs. 😊
great insight
When the government lies to us: That's just politics...(smile)
When you lie to the government: That's a lie, you go to prison !!!
Roger Waters is pretty good at investments.
Great interview. They will choose inflation. The elite will benefit at the expense of the others
It's not they,..
it's this corrupt insane incompetent senile ole joe admin and the demcorats deficit spending $3 trillion every 100 days that will give us inflation.
True! There are no more superheroes like Ronald Reagan and Paul Volker today. The weak governments of today will choose inflation.
Are individuals still holding crypto coin and stocks? I didn’t know that , I guess a few know about integrating into the micro economy to help substitute FIAT or usdt for a more tangible exchange Experience, it more like capitalization with about 43.307% profits/ ROI weekly though.. ps..Kimberly Jane Carl,got me covered!
"Hey everyone! 👋 Just starting my investment journey in crypto and stocks. 🚀 Learning the ropes and excited about the possibilities. Any tips or or info on how I’ll reach out to Kimberly Jane Carl,Let's grow together! 🌱
+1208
Great Interview. I have seen Bill interviewed many times, but I think you managed to get Bill to express his ideas, thoughts and concepts in a more coherent way than any other interviewer.
Bill has some incredible insights.
great interview. i disagree with his assessment with china and gold for citizens. they are more concern about capital flight than preserving their citizens wealth. buying gold and have it sit in their basements is deflationary and china is already debt deflation. they want inflation!!
Thanks for bringing him on.
This is fabulous interview!
I’ve been following Bill since 2003 and have learned so much about investing and patience.
I think Alan Greenspan really liked being called “the Maestro.” Therefore, he did what was necessary to please Wall Street and the business press.
Dear Julia - I’m a fan of your show. Would you mind posting the time/date of recording of your interviews in the description or like that. In these times of many big changes, it’s often nice to know exactly where in the timeline you guys are talking. Sometimes it gives a good indication of your interviewee’s focus and/or view - the way they talk about a set of circumstances/examples - might well change depending if you interviewed them Monday or Friday last week.
Sure! We recorded this one yesterday after the cpi :)
Thank you : ) I realised I wasn’t yet a subscriber - now fixed 👍
Fleck is the man!
Hell yeah lol
“Complete scum” don’t mince words Bill. Ps spot on
Bill reminds me of my friends. Sincere, projects honesty, and wearing his badge of hour(long hair) & relaxed with confidence. Cool dude... Great interview.
Wowww...so impressed with Bill Fleckenstein knowledge and expertise..awesome host and guest speaker..much appreciate your efforts:)))❤❤❤😊😊😊❤❤❤❤
Julia you always have such awesome interviews!
In Australia, the passive bid from our 401K equivalent have created the most expensive bank valuations in the world. Banks make up 40% of the share market and mining companies 15%. Australian banks lend almost exclusively for residential mortgages. Commercial property tends to be owned by pension plans. Its a house of cards with China at the bottom.
Thanks for this. 👍
Great interview and such an amazing guest. Thank you both very much !!!
Interesting perspectives. Thank you.
L.O.L. No question is too hard for Fleckenstein! so glad I stumbled upon this channel, subscribed.
Much respect to Bill...I share the same thoughts, age & hairstyle!
Always a joy, tremendous interview
Awsome Interview! Ty Both.
Great interview, Julia. Great job conducting it too.
Great interview 👍
Beautiful - always love hearing from the Fleck !👍🏻💛
What is he talking about? This is the biggest asset bubble in history. Stock indexes are 7x historical value, and house prices are 2x to 3x real value. The one and only thing holding asset prices at these unbelievable levels is the perception, the psychology, that the Fed will backstop all of this by once again printing money and doing QE and ZIRP the moment asset prices begin to drop.
History has shown the Fed will print if needed. If we have COVID 2.0 make no mistake the printing presses will start
Wonderful interview! I'm definitely doing more research on Bill and you have a new subscriber! 🙂
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
How can I reach this person?
‘’Colleen Rose Mccaffery’ maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
I checked Colleen up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
Great guest and interview...much appreciated, thank you.
Great interview. Resonates with me. Hard assets will rule this decade. Thanks to both of you 🙏🏻
Fantastic guest.....raising the debt limit is not the answer...we need someone with balls to deal with the problem...if not the devaluation of the $ will be ongoing Thx. Bill Fleckenstein.
This channel is gold!!
Great interview. Very knowledgeable on the financial history and where we are heading. Thank you.
Good interview. Thanks Bill.
So much to say. Subscribed to Bill's newsletter and had correspondences with him from the 90s to mid 2000s, when I totally got out of the market. To the millennials, I brought my first house in 1983 when interest rate was in the high double digits, houses can be had for almost nothing. "Wait for it...". I want to hear Bill talk about ski and pork.😁
Yeah, in the 1980's your interest rate on your house didn't matter because the houses were 90% less expensive than today.
@@evrythingis1 Of course it did, unless you are making 2024 money in 1983. People often measure things 40 years ago in today's term. Federal minimum wage in 1983 was $3.35, now is $12, in many states, considerably higher. If you work fast food in California, $20, that is 6x what federal minimum wage was in 1983, or 600%. I was in the tech industry and was paid handsomely, that was $50K. I don't even know what the high-tech earner gets pay these days. I often see people complain about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting anything. The "old people" had it easy. If you work in the auto, appliances, texture industry at the time. There is not even a place you can send resume to as everything was moving offshore. Whole industrial company town just disappeared.
@@techserviceondemand9409You are being intentionally ignorant. Your high interest rate in the 80's didn't matter as much as they do now because your houses cost next to nothing. You yourself said you were paid 50k, but what you left out is that the average home price in California was only 132k back then. Now the average California income is 110k, but the average California house is over 800k.
@@evrythingis1 How many houses did you buy in the 80s? I brought mine and it was not next to nothing. I speak from real life experience and who is intentionally ignorant now? You said the average home price, but you did not say the average salary. I did that for REAL, and not from some average number. I was anything but average, my salary at the time was close to the top range. What is the top range now $250-$300K??
@@techserviceondemand9409 How much was the house? Why won't you say? Housing affordability is at an all time low right now, how is it that you are so belligerently ignorant? There are literally tens of thousands of videos and articles covering this in explicit detail.
Bill is on the money. Greenspan during his time was considered maverick in how risky his approach was. Today the Federal Reserve would laugh at how utterly spineless and conservative Greenspan was.
Ty
Very good!
So is gold in a bubble 😢. Investing is a wild ride.Buy what people need .food ,utilities,health care and yes alcohol companies 😊
Try to get Michael Pettis professor of finance on your show. Much of what has happened regarding interest rates and the US bond market in general has a lot to do with global trade and capital flows into the US as a result of US dollar dominance and it's role in the global economy.
Julia is a great interviewer.
Well done
Another Inflation Reduction Act? LOL.
It's called STOP PRINTING MONEY.
I remember this guy from years and years ago....I always wondered what happened to him. Nice to hear some real discussions again. 😊
A perfect analysis!
Great guest ❤
Great guest
Bill is a good addition to your show
I've been saying this for a while now. They are trapped. No way out but down.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following the this informative content 😊
I think the key difference between the fears of young people in the late 1970s is different in the sense that the problem did resolve over the course of the next 10 years millennials are over 40 now it’s never resolved
IMO the issue is way we're seeing inflation. When inflation is caused by too much money supply and therefore low rates it can be corrected by the Fed. And we've had that and the Fed is correcting that. But price increases can be caused by supply issues which we certainly saw in 2020-22 and even today there are supply issues. The 2 main components of CPI is housing and oil. There appears to be a housing shortage, meaning a bunch of people want to live in a few tiny popular areas. Renters are competing and bidding up rents. There are a lot of rental units being built but it could be years before there's enough rentals. Economics 101 when supply is constrained prices go up. More rental units will be built as rents increase. The Fed can't build homes.
Cheap easy to get out of the ground oil is in less supply. Most likely oil supply will continue to get ever more a tighter supply. That effects gas prices of course but also food production costs and many other thing. Economics 101 oil prices will continue to increase until lifestyle changes happen and/or alternative energies become less cost than oil.
I don't see why CPI wouldn't continue at 3-4% for years. People like to think "the gov" is control of inflation but it only can control a certain type of inflation. Don't think we have that type of inflation currently (did 2022-23).
Been listening to Bill since 1999. On a macro-fundamental basis he has been spot on. Thank you for introducing me to Austrian Economics.
I no longer blame Greenspan, I blame Bernanke/Yellen/Powell.
How did that Austrian investment advice work for you over the past 12 years?
@@billhammett174 incredibly, Boomer. I bought Bitcoin - the epitome of sound money.
Hey Bill !! Miss you ski racing in Whistler !!
Looking at the data, what's driving inflation seems to be corporate profiteering and interest rates themselves. Electricity and insurance prices aren't coming down, yet the supply costs are! Shelter inflation is increasing because interest rates are higher!
Energy and insurance firms (likely colluding tacitly) are keeping prices high regardless of input cost falls and interest rates - the very thing trying to combat inflation - is helping accelerate inflation.
To tackle inflation, perhaps tackle anti-competitive practices and impose windfall tax on oligopolies supplying energy and insurance.
Just a thought.
The government should stop spending a TRILLION dollars every 100 days. That's a thought too.
Free money and fiscal spending caused this train wreck.
100% accurate summary of this video and of the situation. And we haven't seen the true consequences yet.
Another good one from Fleck! Very well articulated. When the Fed inevitably cuts rates, watch the long term bonds to see if rates start to move higher rather than lower. That very well could signal the end game.
Wow, only three minutes in and this guy sounds brilliant! WLR
What does settle up mean?
Great thoughts. He's flexible minded more than many. We have to adapt to ever hanging markets
*Changing
Bill is GREAT
This guys might be my new favorite character of 2024!
Guest Request: Sven of Northman Trader
Great interview with Michael Landon!
I'm kind of thinking he's NOT predicting a bonanza.
bill walton.
@@jcgoogle1808 😂😂😂
Henry Winkler
@@philipvjones397 LOL!!!!😂
Bill, Is the Fed incompetent or are their priorities contrary to the best interests of the American people? Either way, they are the problem rather than the solution.
Dolly Varden, Summa silver, and Abbra are three good silver stocks.
I own Summa and Abbra. I have 12 other silver stocks.
When will gold miners catch up w/ gold? Are high oil prices a factor?
I have read many of Bill's columns as far back as the 1990's (the contrarian capitalist).
Roger Waters is pretty good at investing too.
Bill was Computer programming in 1978. 😮 That is super early. I was born in 1978 and used a computer for the first time at about 7 years old.
Should silver behave like gold or copper during the next recession?
In the 70's my wife & I were convinced that we would never be able to afford a home...
🔥
🌹
So, the FED cannot continue w/ QT much longer?
He’s not good, he’s GREAT!!
It was not as bifurcated in 1980, it was just bad for almost everyone. We had massive unemployment in the recession, and super high interest rates for a few years. And no good solutions for anybody wanting to increase their earnings. There was no "gig economy". You could go back to college full time and get a promotion, with what money? You had to stop spending money, and do anything to stay employed. If you owned a business, you still had to sweat to keep your bills paid. But yes, it is bifurcated now, because prices are super high, and never go to zero. Wages do go to zero, so you have a lot further down to fall if you stop earning for any moment in time. Thanks.
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Your recommendation!
If the long-rates spike, it won’t take the “punch bowl” away, that will bring it back.
Is Bill still buyung gold stocks?
What inflation companies will just automate 40% of the workforce
I don't think the math supports the idea that the "passive bid" is 50% of the market. If that were true we wouldn't see long periods of narrow leadership like we are seeing today, we'd see markets all rise in aggregate. Further, a large portion of the S&P 500 wouldn't be making all new 52 week lows, they'd just keep grinding higher. People who decide to put all their 401k money into NVIDIA aren't passively bidding, that's making an active decision to over pursue a singular name and that is exactly what we see today. Many investors are 100% big tech names which again isn't passive investing.
Yeah, or it's been preventing that large portion of the S&P500 completely collapsing.
So, Argentina.
Senior Citizens spend SOC SEC money wisely unlike Congress. It is a good deal for the economy.
When it blows, it will be big. Whoever sits in the White House gets to be Hoover. At 78, get to laugh at the carnage!
I estimate inflation will increase for the next 3-5 years before everything crumbles for our next Depression to last from 2034-2044
We are in for a long haul 20 yrs???
Since debt is money, if they persistently start reducing deficits, the system ends.
We get the government we elect and therefore deserve.
so many channels claiming the FED is "in trouble," "trapped," or whatever. This WHOLE thing is BY DESIGN. THEY know it will crash as that is what HAS TO happen to make everyone freak out.
Diamonds and Concrete, tell me all about them? Was that question too hard?
That's happening now
What role does the Treasurer play in the financial trainwreck coming
But......doesn't the FED like inflation?
Truth is they do. the reality is the debt is so high they have to inflate.
Inflation is not about psychology, it is about the money supply.
Hey Henry Winkler what is up
🎉hello hanry
How could anyone turn you down to be on your show.
Im guessing his good friend on the nymex was Michael Marks.