Tesla’s Next Stage Has Officially Arrived.

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  • Опубліковано 26 кві 2024
  • The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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    I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
    Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
    I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
    My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
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    Tesla Is About To Shock The World.
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  • Наука та технологія

КОМЕНТАРІ • 424

  • @bsaxman2012
    @bsaxman2012 Місяць тому +262

    I'm not an investor and I don't have any Tesla stock, but I've bought 3 Teslas since 2019 (current one is a 2023 Model Y LR Austin-built) and I love driving and owning them. They have some minor quirks, but the overall ownership experience has been stellar, far surpassing anything I've owned before (I'm 63 and have bought dozens of new cars, muscle cars, and pickup trucks in my lifetime). The reason I admire Tesla is because they proved all the EV naysayers wrong. Thanks to Tesla, we know now that EVs have superior performance, are fun to drive, and are super convenient since they are typically charged at home, don't need oil changes, tune ups, and all the other headaches that come with an ICE car. Whenever I get stuck behind an old smoke-belching ICE car and feel my nose, throat, and lungs burn, it reminds me of how much better the world would be if so many more people drove an EV. On top of that, just imagine our country no longer being dependent on the world oil supply, oil price fluctuations, refinery shutdowns. Imagine America no longer having to spend huge sums of blood and treasure defending oil exporting countries. On every single level, EVs are the future and I thank Tesla and Elon Musk for showing it can be done and how to do it. Kudos to Tesla.

    • @mediacafeonlinellc8728
      @mediacafeonlinellc8728 Місяць тому +4

      👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

    • @MrJinske
      @MrJinske Місяць тому +7

      Well said

    • @bradh7472
      @bradh7472 Місяць тому +1

      I just have one comment, and I am an investor 100%. Its very rare for anyone to behind a smoke-belching car today. The 70's-80's yes, but today's cars are so clean that you don't see smoke or smell it. Now there are people that run around with junk that this is true but not usually the case. EV is way better than ICE in so many ways but I still like them. That is just me. I like automotive. some people just get a vehicle to drive and that is all.

    • @colinpalmer9070
      @colinpalmer9070 Місяць тому +6

      Why not some skin in the game with Tesla stock ?

    • @PaleBlueDotCitizen
      @PaleBlueDotCitizen Місяць тому +8

      Most Tesla owners are stockholders. I am heavily invested in TSLA. It's a good buying opportunity right now...

  • @sergelysak
    @sergelysak Місяць тому +45

    I love how the worst insult is you guys calling each other a bear.

  • @johnfurr6060
    @johnfurr6060 Місяць тому +42

    Watching you guy's challenge each other on relative bullishness is hilarious. lol.

  • @kylewagner45
    @kylewagner45 Місяць тому +6

    “I drive it every single day. It takes me everywhere. ITS SO OBVIOUS.”
    Yep. This 100%

  • @SteveMidnight
    @SteveMidnight Місяць тому +74

    Farzad, Let the boys express their opinions without cutting them off. Thanks!

    • @farzyness
      @farzyness  Місяць тому +42

      Nah I hate those guys.

    • @allieflounder5764
      @allieflounder5764 Місяць тому +18

      It’s getting more difficult to listen to him or Omar as they have started to demand cult like loyalty and can not have an open conversation. It’s bizarre

    • @afterthesmoke
      @afterthesmoke Місяць тому +3

      @@allieflounder5764 very bizarre

    • @djnavari
      @djnavari Місяць тому +17

      This was the most annoying I have seen Farzad. The guy wasn’t listening

    • @sbsankey
      @sbsankey Місяць тому +13

      Wow, Farzad is becoming annoyingly cultish in his Tesla views. These guys are expressing legitimate cautionary views and he calls them being "in this bear camp now"

  • @antigrave
    @antigrave Місяць тому +32

    As a Construction Millwright I was involved in building and renovating car plants ( Ford Gm Chrysler Honda Toyota) from the 80's to mid 2000's I can tell you they were all the same in design the only difference over those years was more robots . Tesla's new why of doing things is a "Revolution" .If I had stock I'd be "VARY VARY HAPPY"

    • @travisjazzbo3490
      @travisjazzbo3490 Місяць тому +2

      "VERY VERY"

    • @antigrave
      @antigrave Місяць тому

      thank you

    • @LunnarisLP
      @LunnarisLP Місяць тому +2

      I mean you can buy stock now. Its like what? 70% down from all time highs?
      I think most people who owned the stock for longer than lets say a month probably arent super happy unley they bought it like 2020 or sth, but even then it must really hurt to see your depot lose all that value. Maybe they are happy that they can add more shares for cheap.

    • @EvolKnives
      @EvolKnives Місяць тому

      @@LunnarisLPthe last part of your comment is what gets me through the day 😂. It’s nice to be able to pick up more at a lower cost. We in it for the long run

    • @irusev
      @irusev Місяць тому

      good time to get in right now!

  • @timothyngai4554
    @timothyngai4554 Місяць тому +5

    I love the way you guys test each others’ thesis. Great composure on all parties

  • @joekim4345
    @joekim4345 Місяць тому +11

    Farzad out of the gate swinging. did you have a triple shot plus a redbull this morning?

  • @fredbloggs5902
    @fredbloggs5902 Місяць тому +12

    If they take a Tesla-3 and cut out the rear 2 seats, do front & rear casting and get up to 7 miles/kWh and cut the range to 280m, the battery pack is 40 kWh instead of 60 kWh. It’s a lot cheaper and doesn’t Osborne the 3 or Y.

    • @Matzes
      @Matzes Місяць тому +1

      That car would break the EV market

    • @cathyk9197
      @cathyk9197 Місяць тому +1

      I forget exactly why, but in France, Tesla already sells a two-seat RWD Model Y with more storage.

  • @SLPCaires
    @SLPCaires Місяць тому +22

    Hanz getting accused of pessimistic tesla cult thought crimes.... 🤣

  • @michaelbone6894
    @michaelbone6894 Місяць тому +5

    I wanted them to keep focusing on the long term for two reasons: 1) it would speed up the big moves that really matter by 1/2-1 year. 2) It would cause the short term investors/traders to sell, lowering the stock price so I could get a better deal since I'm still buying and not selling.

  • @pauldesi
    @pauldesi Місяць тому +27

    Farzad- can you help those of us stuck on the 8.9 branch? Thousands of us DO NOT have the FSD trial AND won’t have v12 even with a paid subscription. Something is wrong here and no one is taking about it.

    • @adampenny1406
      @adampenny1406 Місяць тому +1

      And you’re in the US?..

    • @farzyness
      @farzyness  Місяць тому +9

      I shared your comment on X.

    • @pauldesi
      @pauldesi Місяць тому +2

      @@farzyness many thanks!!

    • @nickmcconnell1291
      @nickmcconnell1291 Місяць тому +2

      Check these things just in case (unique one at the end):
      Assuming you have the correct hardware
      --- Make sure your car has three bars or more of wireless connectivity signal and that the throughput is a minimum of 100MB/sec.
      ---See if you can kick it in the pants by doing the following. Inside the car go into the car settings menu and to the Software menu. Scroll down to the area where it says that it will check for map updates. This same section also checks for all updates.... it should go and check right as you scroll down as this kicks off the download.
      ---Make sure you have set your software updates to ADVANCED also.
      ---Finally, when I got my model Y LR in Sept 2023, it would try to download the update but would hang and then try again and again. Tesla service found there was a mismatch in the firmware levels between one of the chips and another. Once they got those in synch the issue went away.

    • @johnfurr6060
      @johnfurr6060 Місяць тому +2

      Have you contacted Tesla?

  • @hsiaohu2959
    @hsiaohu2959 Місяць тому +6

    I agree with Nicholas and Hans that it is a relief that Tesla decided to do “hybrid unboxed” instead of straight to robotaxi. Need to have FCF to continue to build AI infrastructure to get to autonomy. Plenty of examples of Tesla’s missteps, which Nicholas and Hans point out: solar roof, model X falcon ring doors over engineered ,…

  • @jeremytaylor3532
    @jeremytaylor3532 Місяць тому +3

    An inexpensive 8 seat van with no steering wheel, could be an FSD replacement for buses and taxis, doing car pool type runs as well
    Having 4 doors on each side might be too heavy.
    These could function as people movers at airports or large entertainment parks.

  • @booobtooober
    @booobtooober Місяць тому +3

    Farzad? Your out in left field on so many points I can't keep up, but these guys did share some on point opinions.
    #1 Tesla is not building the next gen vehicle on existing lines. They will be using "some" of those processes on new models on existing lines.
    #2 Tesla has excess capacity, not excess product. They are not over building as you stated.
    #3 Tesla is going to utilize its existing over capacity (for little additional COG) to build new models to increase revenue for building out the next gen factory and vehicle.
    To my 2nd point, you may point out Tesla's 60K delivery / production difference. To which I point out Red Sea blockage, 2 weeks additional time to navigate around Africa, Elon saying inventory was in the wrong place, and the fact that one ship holds 7600 Teslas, which means just 8 ships in route would account for the entire 60K undelivered vehicles.

  • @joesegreti3124
    @joesegreti3124 Місяць тому +6

    I’m thinking Elon is focusing on one thing at a time here, which is good. If the market is in a high interest rate environment for a while, there is lesser need for a model 2 right now. Cybercabs would actually be more desirable to people that can’t afford even a 25K car. Get the experience on this new platform, and then use it in 2025, etc for a microvan, hatchback, delivery truck, etc.

  • @tobepropst6539
    @tobepropst6539 Місяць тому +7

    NICK DID TOTALLY SAY THAT!!!
    ...and I had the same worries :)
    ...it's like how much pain is that gonna cause for how long for stockholders?
    ...even as a long termer these bearish periods are kinda painful. Sometimes seems unnecessary pain.

    • @gregbailey45
      @gregbailey45 Місяць тому

      Sell your shares if you can't stand the pain!

    • @Matzes
      @Matzes Місяць тому

      Tesla never cared about short term Shareholder pain. You gotta accept it holding this stock

  • @ssanpeterson
    @ssanpeterson Місяць тому +2

    This was a fantastic episode! That being said, though there is a risk of ignorant backlash, it is wrong to temper the conversation for fear of a squealing minority or majority. Speak the whole truth without fear and you will be rewarded by those who thirst for it, (most of us). Elon is doing it every day and its what makes him worth investing in! Great show.

  • @ranig2848
    @ranig2848 Місяць тому +3

    When the GPU chart shows H100 Equivalent GPUs, does it include Dojo? Is the jump to 80k just more nvidia or additional Dojo deployments? Dojo2?

  • @Cybertruck_69
    @Cybertruck_69 Місяць тому +6

    Agreed. After all the continual fud and lies from legacy, won’t upset me a bit WHEN they go under.

  • @tonymccreath4540
    @tonymccreath4540 Місяць тому +5

    Confirmed cheaper car good news, even if built on old assembly lines. The derisking uses some ideas of unboxing ideas, which will be tested existing assembling lines. To me, it means the ramp-up new unboxed assembly methods can likely be faster. The more ideas tested on old assembly lines, the better the start-up unboxed method. 😊😊😊

  • @raisoreo
    @raisoreo Місяць тому +2

    I completely agree with Hans, shrink Model 3 to hatchback format and size. They'll sell millions!

  • @solarenergynow08
    @solarenergynow08 Місяць тому

    Great discussion. my question is why do you limit cybercab to a new platform when it's all about the right FSD version, the most powerful Tesla computer on board and latest camera technlogy...it could be a model y with 2 bench seats facing each other for all we care...comments?

  • @filipjacobson5194
    @filipjacobson5194 Місяць тому

    Love this more relaxed format of conversation, and your personalities spilling out for us more

  • @zebediah007
    @zebediah007 Місяць тому +1

    Well done guys, can't believe I just spent an hour and a half just being entertained by your thoughts and mischievous digs.

  • @MrJinske
    @MrJinske Місяць тому +4

    It's a simple concept, Tesla has excess capacity, vs spending Billions on a new line, take some of that , and iterate w new(ish) vehicles at a bit lower costs, with the decreases in lithium and other metals since others are pulling back Tesla will be able to bring these vehicles in the 29k range and use the 7500 Ira money and bring a car with a net effective cost at 21.5k ish and the higher and a higher priced model at 32.5k with a net cost at 25k

    • @Matzes
      @Matzes Місяць тому

      Yea, that's on point imo. They have the issue of having excess capacity, which they didn't forsee 2 years ago. So now they kind of have to compromise for capex benefits. The new cheap car won't be as radical, but probably halfway there, but can be built on existing lines, saving billions in Capex. I think it makes sense, just bit disappointed we can't go all the way radically new with the cheap car

  • @xonirhom5365
    @xonirhom5365 Місяць тому

    😂😂😂 I love the back and forth on this one. This is the first time I've spent so much time laughing on a tesla show without Brian.

  • @RogerSheeler
    @RogerSheeler Місяць тому

    absolutely loved the discussion, including the jovial digs

  • @ExecutiveZombie
    @ExecutiveZombie Місяць тому

    Hans is on point about speaking product announcements on this call…
    You’re correct to curiosity also Nick…
    We know that both business models will apply and we’ll find out the auto model utility later…

  • @Tjmalloy2
    @Tjmalloy2 Місяць тому

    Great discussion guys, especially towards the end of the video.

  • @Nerlin
    @Nerlin Місяць тому +3

    This was your best show in a long time Farzad. I loved the part you telling them they are bears now. It was funny.

  • @jochenvonbastianeller6865
    @jochenvonbastianeller6865 Місяць тому +2

    I just learned that FSD is in Munich Germany showing the administration the capabilities of the system!

  • @davidbeppler3032
    @davidbeppler3032 Місяць тому +20

    The average car owner pays $567/mth and drives 30 miles a day.
    Robotaxi would cost $150/mth to drive you.

    • @Dularr
      @Dularr Місяць тому +5

      People will own a car and use robotaxi. Where the robotaxi will be the parking extender. The transportation for the last mile.

    • @kenth151
      @kenth151 Місяць тому +1

      robotaxi will never happen.

    • @hardcoreherbivore4730
      @hardcoreherbivore4730 Місяць тому +4

      @@kenth151🤣

    • @hatslapper6860
      @hatslapper6860 Місяць тому +3

      Ideally everybody buying commuters switches to using self driving cars instead of ownership to reduce the number of cars taking up unnecessary parking space.

    • @hardcoreherbivore4730
      @hardcoreherbivore4730 Місяць тому +1

      @@hatslapper6860 More people space.

  • @donschafer3428
    @donschafer3428 Місяць тому

    Loved this discussion gents, great content.

  • @sandybayes
    @sandybayes Місяць тому

    Yes Hans! I don't drive it either and also totally convinced.. It's so, so close I can feel it!

  • @slwiser1
    @slwiser1 Місяць тому

    Great interview with open conversations.

  • @michaelsloan224
    @michaelsloan224 Місяць тому +2

    What if Tesla - upgraded the wiring to 48v and steer by wire & brake by wire from Bosch then come out with a Juniper Model Y with new CATL battery - Juniper will increase in price especially with a range of near 400 miles then older version with new tech will have a price reduction - Thanks great show!!!

  • @mymodely7755
    @mymodely7755 Місяць тому +4

    It cracks me up the Tesla bulls want credit in the stock market for Robo taxi right now. That’s ridiculous, while FSD is really good and it is much better than it was previously it is still not ready for Robo taxi. I had to take over yesterday just to make an exit because the car would’ve missed it and there was no traffic. They have not solved for self driving right now and you cannot give the stock value for something that does not exist.

    • @craighermle7727
      @craighermle7727 Місяць тому +1

      Bravo!. But you realize those comments boarder on blasphemy. Lord Elon and the apostles will not be pleased

    • @mymodely7755
      @mymodely7755 Місяць тому

      @@craighermle7727 for crying out let’s eliminate parts that make the user experience better because we can eliminate a part save some money and who cares if the wipers suck

    • @craighermle7727
      @craighermle7727 Місяць тому

      @@mymodely7755 The problem goes well beyond Cybethud wipers

  • @bobwheeler8101
    @bobwheeler8101 Місяць тому

    Again, this is a great format. Also can’t wait to see how it goes over the next few months. Farzad and Cindy, as a father of 8 I will say your life is about to go 10x!! 😊

  • @mymodely7755
    @mymodely7755 Місяць тому +2

    I’m all in with Nick, I believe there are still concerns on several fronts. I also think there is strong possibility of cheaper versions of current vehicles because they are unable to do all new models quickly. I think it was a bit of a stock pump to get people on board with renewing compensation package.

    • @gustavgyll3291
      @gustavgyll3291 Місяць тому

      Totally agree!
      And as far as I know, for a totally new model to be sold (at least in the EU and US) you need a homologation process. I know in the EU that those papers are available to everyone to get. Last I’ve heard that process takes a fair amount of time. If and when they do that we will know head of time. My guess is that’s it not a new model coming to the EU with in a year at least. Now trims of existing models don’t need to go through that process and can be launched quickly.

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому +1

    *GUYS*
    .
    Don't overthink it!
    .
    (EDIT... Then at 25:20 *NICK GOT IT* !!! A "New model"p can be the *same shell* but different enough to be "NEW" as in low parts interchangeability)
    .
    As far as I've seen/ heard, Elon said
    " *Cheaper vehicles* on existing lines..... Using *elements* of unboxed"
    .
    NOT " *Compact* (small) on existing lines"
    .......
    So why not the same "bought and paid for" body styles?
    ....
    *WHICH* elements of unboxed?
    .
    "Build remotely, then meet at final assembly"?
    .
    That's likely.
    .
    How?
    Assemble the castings.
    Bring them to final assembly.
    .
    Bolt onto passenger cage.
    .
    That's "elements" of unboxed.
    .
    *What else is necessary* ?
    .
    Split connections for systems.
    .
    HOW?
    .
    You take ELEMENTS of the *NEW* vehicles (Taxi, Compact, etc) ..... The SYSTEMS, Wiring, Steering, Braking.
    .
    You incorporate them into *EXISTING* body styles.
    (Again, He never said "smaller", just "cheaper!")
    .
    So, we see a "Model 3e" (economy).
    SAME body (amortized production processes)
    SAME or very similar castings.
    But
    NEW Electric Brakes.
    NEW Steer by wire
    NEW 48v system (necessary for the steering system and an offshoot of CT)
    IN ADDITION
    Rear motor (as per the recent release?)
    Power/ torque dialled down to 0-60 @6.9 seconds (for economy.... And "6.9")
    A smaller pack to suit (50-55 kWh?) While maintaining range?
    .
    HOW MUCH can these changes remove from the cost of a Model 3, bearing in mind many if the "new" components would be ramping into the full unboxed Gen 3 vehicle later?
    ....
    Nearly forgot.
    .
    The Model Y version?
    "JUNIPER".
    (Next, the "Taxi")

  • @wisewordsIQ
    @wisewordsIQ Місяць тому +5

    Great chat, gentlemen! Thanks for allowing us to be a part of it. I agree with Farzad and Hans. The Model 3 is a "model." The Model Y is a "model." A cheaper model 3 is a "variation" of that same "model." New "models" are going to be just that.

    • @frederickfaller899
      @frederickfaller899 Місяць тому

      Model3 was first before model Y

    • @737smartin
      @737smartin Місяць тому

      @wiseworlds...Is a two-door, slightly shorter M3 a 'new model?' I think so.

  • @billpole
    @billpole Місяць тому

    What do you guys think about a cheaper model / robotaxi that has a composite plastic shell body instead of a traditional body / steel cyber-truck type body? What if it has cyber looks like the Teslaconomics render, but a lightweight plastic body - thoughts?

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому

    Hans.
    The "Cheaper new vehicles" will be the "hybrid" 3 and Y.
    .
    THEN the "COMPACT" WILL BE THE SAME VEHICLE AS THE TAXI, but with different door and seating options.

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому +1

    Just btw,
    You DO realise the "unboxed" presentation actually *showed a model Y* ?

  • @mikem2844
    @mikem2844 Місяць тому

    Even some ppl who are decently educated on tesla fsd are still skeptical of robotaxis because of rare edge cases. In my mind, integration with Grok will address that issue where Grok will communicate with the passenger in extreme edge cases and give a few options on what to do, or hand off control to support person wearing a VR device that renders the situation in 3D

  • @Ronnieleec
    @Ronnieleec Місяць тому

    You guys are great together. Please note that is is Investor Relations that should facilitate analyst exposure to FSD, on behalf of shareholders. Analysts and media have a lot going on and competing priorities. If Elon says they need to try it-help them do it.

  • @AquarianSoulTimeTraveler
    @AquarianSoulTimeTraveler Місяць тому

    Good video dynamic with u three...

  • @mfpears
    @mfpears Місяць тому

    42:00 Completely agree with Farzad. This was my exact same thought. We should know by now that Wall Street dominates the pricing. I would expect a small uptick from higher retail interest. But max 20%. Wall Street analysts will not comprehend the significance. Count on it: They will say, "Well, they are still behind Waymo, and anyway I need to see actual profits first." Some will mention it, but still not adjust their price targets by more than 40% I think. In the long run though, it will impact the entire economy.

  • @lawsnewton
    @lawsnewton Місяць тому

    Think about it the new unbox process can be used for the Models 3, Y and next Gen/RoboTaxi lines.
    The unbox simplifies the process allowing Tesla to intermingle Model construction when needed.

  • @EvEvangelist
    @EvEvangelist Місяць тому +2

    Nicolas is a Smart Guy. Fact orientated and well researched . If you need an intelligent bouncer that stimulates your audience - he’s your GO TO Man.

  • @albeit1
    @albeit1 Місяць тому +1

    The idea that things that have never been done before can be performed on a schedule is a strange one.
    You can’t know how long something takes until it’s been done.
    You can predict how long it will take to build a house whose design you’ve built before. And still be wrong.
    But if you’ve never built a house before, any prediction you make will be wrong.

  • @Mpr47276
    @Mpr47276 Місяць тому +3

    Elon’s Optimus in the factories by year end and available to consumers in 2025 sure sounded speculative.

    • @hardcoreherbivore4730
      @hardcoreherbivore4730 Місяць тому +1

      When he claimed its value will exceed the rest of the company combined, that tells you how motivated they are.

    • @hardcoreherbivore4730
      @hardcoreherbivore4730 Місяць тому +1

      Their inference chips give them a leading edge, plus the ability to utilize them immediately.

  • @Xx0GsaburzxX
    @Xx0GsaburzxX Місяць тому +1

    Hans giving some really insightful info

  • @Tronnet
    @Tronnet Місяць тому

    Spot on. Tesla is moving with the market!

  • @DanyCervantes
    @DanyCervantes Місяць тому

    The model 2 is also the Robotaxi, without FSD.
    2S3XY.

  • @SemiDad
    @SemiDad Місяць тому

    These guys never challenge quality & quality control. What would be truly shocking would be if Tesla entered the top 10 of USA best.

  • @jonathanslaughter8542
    @jonathanslaughter8542 Місяць тому +1

    Farzad thinking doing a huge infrastructure shift that would like leave them with stranded assets and being against an approach that smooths out the transition from their current manufacturing equipment to the unboxing is just silly talk. It’s more risk adverse approach to doing the same thing that will cost them less to do while maximizing output.

  • @coolnameproductions2180
    @coolnameproductions2180 Місяць тому

    I'm puzzled how new bugs are introduced into FSD with additional training data. Can anyone explain? Is some FSD training done on examples of bad driving?

  • @plantstho6599
    @plantstho6599 Місяць тому

    It's perfect timing because it's summer in the US and people are driving/traveling more... So more training miles. THAT'S why 8/8

  • @rlanza1054
    @rlanza1054 Місяць тому

    One question: TESLA Stock still doesn't offer a dividend? Why?

  • @STOCKmarket-fo1fh
    @STOCKmarket-fo1fh Місяць тому

    Yes keep pumping up...

  • @mikenicholas7132
    @mikenicholas7132 15 днів тому

    WOW, you guys are so obviously right-on to me and greater than the sum of yourselves 👍

  • @DougWedel-wj2jl
    @DougWedel-wj2jl Місяць тому +2

    If Tesla uses the unboxed method for a new model, that means all the other builders need to change their existing assembly lines to unboxed. But wait a sec. It also means Tesla needs to change their existing lines to unboxed or lose ground in the marketplace. Including for the S and X. And Roadster. And Tesla van. And the semi.

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому +1

      Let's say you have a long location line.
      Your vehicle has castings which you bolt to the body, then you fit parts. You have limited access to the castings.
      So, you " break" the line...
      You build assembly areas away from the main line.
      Put a casting in each.
      Build components onto the casting, working all 4 sides above and below.
      The casting is on a Robot table.
      When finished, it drives to an assembly area.
      The bar code "old style" body arrives.
      The casting slots into a new area of the line at one end of the body.
      The difference is 75% of the work is done..... You saved time.
      It's essentially "the same line" but with "unboxed elements" (ref Elon)
      .
      Does need 48v, steer by wire, etc to work.
      .
      Btw...
      "Lose ground in the marketplace?
      Nobody else has unboxed.

    • @DougWedel-wj2jl
      @DougWedel-wj2jl Місяць тому

      If unboxed is way more efficient, other makers will let Tesla go first to work out the bugs, prove the method. But if it’s as good as people say, everyone will want to do it and eventually will need to, to stay competitive. But that also includes Tesla, with their old lines.

  • @futureisnow1005
    @futureisnow1005 Місяць тому

    Honestly, honestly, the model Y3 and cyber shock really all the three cars that they need. They don’t need to do anything else if they don’t want to.

  • @manolisvosnakidis6540
    @manolisvosnakidis6540 Місяць тому

    I like this more chill conversation 😊

  • @ivaluska
    @ivaluska 20 днів тому

    I think Farzad missed when the new manufacturing method (unboxed) was compared with other new directions Tesla went that did NOT work out, like the Tesla solar roof and the rollout of the 4680 batteries. It is illustrative of the fact that not all risky paradigm shifts at Tesla have been successful. That makes sense to worry about

  • @evgeniy1332
    @evgeniy1332 Місяць тому

    This one was fun to watch!

  • @brianking6195
    @brianking6195 Місяць тому +3

    I’ve noticed Tesla Bulls haven’t mentioned lately that OEM’s & there ice part supply manufacturing facilities will soon be stranded assets!!

  • @danieldares2578
    @danieldares2578 Місяць тому

    Wish you guys could address macro concerns and what that means to the car industry as a whole and Tesla specifically

    • @farzyness
      @farzyness  Місяць тому +1

      Macro will hurt everyone to varying degrees, and those with strong financials will come out on the other side stronger relative to everyone else.

  • @danbelainsky1650
    @danbelainsky1650 Місяць тому

    LOL ... GREAT SHOW GUYS ... Love it!

  • @garycarson3128
    @garycarson3128 Місяць тому

    It Elon felt that it would be less efficient and illogical to produce the Robotaxi and the $25k EV at the same time when each Robotaxi produces 5x the gross profits, the removal of 5x ICE vehicles, and 5x the impact to their mission than a $25k EV. Why waist the production capacity, material (batteries), effort and cost to produce the $25k EV until all of the deployment capacity for the CyberCab have been satisfied.

  • @roberthotaling4303
    @roberthotaling4303 Місяць тому

    Totally agree. 4680 is slow. FSD took 5 years longer. Better to use what you know then build the unboxed next to the regular line and test.

  • @jonlivingstone
    @jonlivingstone Місяць тому +1

    Add electric frunk open close.

  • @tobepropst6539
    @tobepropst6539 Місяць тому

    MORE AND MORE NICK PLEASE!!!!!!

  • @Superburke53
    @Superburke53 Місяць тому

    Thanks!

  • @gunningdesign
    @gunningdesign Місяць тому

    With the learning from the prototyped unboxed process applied to existing lines, Model 3 and Y become cheaper to build. Do they even need to build a whole new car for one of the models to land at 25K? Where they're at on the curve, even slightly cheaper cost prices cause huge bumps in potential addressable market. That equals full capacity++ And justifies building bespoke factories for robotaxi. Also gives them the time necessary to get over the regulatory hump for autonomy.

  • @jmanjr
    @jmanjr Місяць тому +6

    What is un-boxed?

    • @JboKit
      @JboKit Місяць тому +11

      Making multiple parts of the car in parallel (like the front, the back, the structural battery pack etc) and then joining them together because you are using technology like drive by wire and brake by wire (thanks to the 48V architecture) and don't need a "box" because there is no mechanical linkage from steering wheel and brakes. Faster production=cheaper to build

  • @richardalexander5758
    @richardalexander5758 Місяць тому

    LOL, Ross and Gordon Johnson on Farzad's case!

  • @larsnystrom6698
    @larsnystrom6698 Місяць тому

    What you should be worried about is that the current lines are available for a new car!
    That means they had much more production capacity for Model 3 and Y than they expect to sell.

  • @johnlabernik4599
    @johnlabernik4599 Місяць тому

    I can’t cite the specific interview, but regarding 48v and steer by wire, Elon has specifically said they will not retrofit Model 3 or Y, it’s only going in new models.

  • @gavinsmiyh6218
    @gavinsmiyh6218 Місяць тому

    You guys were so funny tonight, best show ever!

  • @vmfan96
    @vmfan96 Місяць тому

    I read it the same way. That they may be producing new models based in the same line with new technologies from the new platform. Not sure if that means new sheet metal or castings for a whole different shape and size. I could see lower grade materials, maybe no glass roof, fabric seats, less battery modules. Maybe a wagon, maybe a 3 door like Veloster or i3. Tesla wants more cars on the road gathering data. Data, software as a service and transport as a service are where the real money is.

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому

    Nick is *RIGHT*'on batteries.
    TESLA will also have the long term supply contracts AND be the *preferred* customer for those suppliers

  • @MrJinske
    @MrJinske Місяць тому +2

    It pretty simple, they make the lower cost trims a bit lower gross profit say 15% for 3 and y, then lets say lower cost 10%gross profit, u move 1million at 15% or 10% on 2million will be more gross profit, plus the advantages of the ira, battery credits, plus additional data from an additional 25% more fsd subs, all lead to Tesal being even further ahead and putting more pressure on gm and ford. It will force then, at a higher cost to license fsd, see the lower cost models plus scale of data and dollars will position them strongly. Remeber i make these assumptions without fsd/robo taxi watch out competition they are going back to 14 year okd tech, it going to be awesome for tesla

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому

      Not "Trims".
      It will be a "systems" change.

    • @MrJinske
      @MrJinske Місяць тому

      @rogerstarkey5390 100% wrong not at 1st. Leverage the efficiency, of battery over supply and owm going back in time to hybrids. That 1 reason of the acceleration.

  • @MrFilip94
    @MrFilip94 Місяць тому +2

    THIS was the best episodes of all time. Your fkn challenge eachother, in a very fun way!

  • @jsbrown511
    @jsbrown511 Місяць тому

    My guess is two development teams: Shanghai for the inexpensive compact car and US for Cybercab based on Cybertruck line in stainless steel. The Cybercab can be more expensive to make because its inherent value is so high. FSD in China is probably a year out from FSD in North America.

  • @georgeginsburg545
    @georgeginsburg545 Місяць тому

    The stock can go up without a surprise profit in the P&L statement. The stock jumped like 100 points after the Hertz deal a few years ago.

  • @leigh5716
    @leigh5716 Місяць тому

    Hybrid Unboxed method=
    1. Model 3 hatchback
    2. Model Y small crossover SUV
    Approx. $30k each pre IRA tax credit

  • @frederickstirnkorb3094
    @frederickstirnkorb3094 Місяць тому

    I am an investor and aquiring shares. The stock is not going to go higher until it's obvious on the bottom line then the stock will skyocket. It will overshoot question is by how much. My guess is the market cap will get close to 10 trillion then pull back to a reasonable multiple 70 to 100 PE.

  • @ThatGrizzlyGuy
    @ThatGrizzlyGuy Місяць тому

    Farzad is not putting words into his mouth, his own words say he’s 🐻 worried. Simple

  • @dominicrebelo6982
    @dominicrebelo6982 Місяць тому

    Changing the factory lines to the unboxed method is another revolutionary idea that creates enough space in the factories for extra lines & for new models rather than produce more of the same 3 & Y vehicles. I expect they will build a CyberVan off the CyberTruck platform, I also expect they will built a couple of versions of the Next Gen Vehicle as well as different versions of the 3 & Y. CyberTruck, CyberVan for families & a CyberVan for businesses & a small CyberBus for all kinds of uses.
    IMO the best vehicle for RoboTaxi is the Model Y & if they can refresh the Model Y & find ways to reduce the cost of the Model Y which using Optimus on those lines instead of people will reduce the cost of the vehicle. The unboxed assembly line, Optimus building the RoboTaxi, no steering wheel or pedals & no mirrors will all reduce the cost of the RoboTaxi including using stainless steel similar to the CyberTruck & you eliminate paint will reduce the cost further. Also the cost of batteries are dropping & that reduces the cost further. A Cyber looking Model Y would be a signature car for the Tesla RoboTaxi network that is unique to them & stands out & is another mobile billboard. A silver RoboTaxi with Tesla written on both sides will certainly stand out.
    IMO they should advertise the Model 3 as a couple vehicle for young people to travel the country side, go to the beach or picnics & do all kinds of small things around town. Then make a CyberVan or another version of Model Y for families when these young people need a larger vechil for their growing families. A family Van with numerous smart innovations that families need including things for the kids in the vehicle could be a huge seller for Tesla. It's also a sector of the business they have not really tapped given the cost of the Model X which is big enough for families but not cost efficient given they are over $100K.
    The next Gen vehicle is going to be for young people & those who can't afford a Model 3 or Y & can be sold in poorer countries that need affordable vehicles. And again they can make all kinds of different models off the same platform for different needs & requirements. I expect that all new Tesla vehicles will have the 48 volt architecture, steer by wire & smaller or less batteries that are more powerful for all new makes & models. Once Mexico is up & running they will repeat all of these new improvements & efficiencies to make all of the cars they will make at Giga-Mexico & flood Central & South America with Tesla vehicles. I also think they repeat this entire process with India & build on the same property in Mexico & India a Mega-Pack factory to increase the sales & distribution of battery storage for all those countries. It's genious 10X chess moves.

  • @miltdanfoss
    @miltdanfoss Місяць тому

    How about the idea of the skate coming to reality? Model 3/Y chassis with low cost body? Same with Cybertruck chassis and Model S/X chassis?

  • @ranig2848
    @ranig2848 Місяць тому

    Tesla needs a VW Golf (and Golf GTI) competitor in terms of price and size. Model Y will seem like a low volume vehicle compared to Golf-like vehicle. This would be a game changer in Europe, China AND the US (as city car)

  • @francoischarbonneau9447
    @francoischarbonneau9447 Місяць тому

    Guy's didn't Elon say a few months back that even with the Mexico factory being delayed the production of (M2) was to take place with the existing factories, meaning Texas?

  • @tesliana
    @tesliana Місяць тому +1

    Farzad was visibly worried and hoping for a rabbit being pulled out of the hat. But now he is singing like a choir boy with amnesia. 🤣😎😜

    • @farzyness
      @farzyness  Місяць тому +2

      You don’t wanna hear me sing.

    • @rogerstarkey5390
      @rogerstarkey5390 Місяць тому +1

      ​@@farzyness
      You'll be singing to the baby in a month! 👍

  • @josephlgamblejr9560
    @josephlgamblejr9560 Місяць тому

    I have a movie suggestion for you guys to watch the three body problems.

  • @tycox9364
    @tycox9364 Місяць тому

    1:00:00 @farzad you own him

  • @ranig2848
    @ranig2848 Місяць тому

    If FSD can already (almost) do autonomous robotaxi, how long until Tesla does an autonomous air taxi? Batteries are already good enough for short range flights (think shuttles from city center to airports). All the tech (given FSD) is already there 🤯

  • @svetlinkarachorov4208
    @svetlinkarachorov4208 Місяць тому

    If the plan has not changed.
    Master plan part 3 page 22. "Compact battery - LFP,, pack size 53 kWh" Just saying.
    I think they will reveal the CyberCab, the low cost passanger car, the commercial van, the passanger van and they might even tease the bus... (I give very little chance on the bus).