Is Topps' New Printing Strategy Bad For The Hobby?
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- Lately it seems as if Topps is printing money. Fresh off the release of the Ohtani 50/50 set and incredibly high printed Topps Now releases, it feels like Topps is changing their business model. Topps can now get an athlete to sign a singular high end card and sell the set as an online release and profit millions. In this episode of Spitballin' cards the Spitballin' team debates if this is good or bad for the hobby.
Topps now cards used to be 4.99 and price goes down with Bulk. Now they ar 11.99 which is a total rip off. I used to buy almost every rookie but I will never buy again.
They have gotten so expensive!
The junk wax era was never about over printing. It's like saying there are too many stocks in the stock market. The problem was that everyone tried to cash out at the same time thus crashing the market. I do fear that at the first whiff of a recession the hobby will implode.
@@BadLuckMurphy it feels like there are too many cards now and prices are so high for boxes than potential new collectors could be priced out quick. Or buy one box, get nothing of value and walk away for good.
Impressed you got a Corbin Carroll 2023 card back from Beckett already 😂
Lol 😂
@@scoremulti 😂😂
I think the Topps dynasty black will work if the player and achievement is something rare besides that it’s a 1 and done.
Agreed - TOpps needs to stick to truly incredible acheivements!
Topps management of the Topps Now brand, which seemed to be positioned as something innovative and high quality.
The daily drops, timed releases and print to order with published print runs is a good idea.
Panini does it with their Panini Instant brand and possibly a better job than Topps in that Panini focuses on the base card as an isolated offer without baiting the hook and creating a chase for parallel inserts.
Topps seems to be diminishing the prestige and value of their base card sets by trying to lure gamblers to buy massive quantities of base cards recklessly to chase inserts then dump the base into the secondary market as losses (priced below what they paid) ruining the brand value.
Topps management of the Topps Now premium cards, those On Card Autographs and MLB Authenticated Game Used Relic/Memorabilia cards featuring pieces of bases and balls were nice and then making them packaged into packs to get a guaranteed card that could be a 1/1 or higher doesn't bother me, but pricing rookie cards as if these prospects already realized their potential is outrageously gaudy and greedy.
Now, baiting the hook again, by having the "you COULD get (but probably won't)" chases is turning the brand into a casino.
@@rickinquest pretty much exactly our thoughts. ToppsNow is becoming an online casino!
Yes, all the Sportscards manufacturers are moving towards the Lottery Ticket business model (Panini, Topps/Fanatics and Upper Deck). Too many sets, Normal printing, Online Print to Demand, Parallels, Inserts, Autographs, Relics - too many to choose from since 2018. How much would it cost to get 1 copy of every Shohei Ohtani card in 2024 Products? This is the Beckett database checklist. Collectors have a finite amount of money along with time to spend each year. Most modern cards declined in value after the first month after it is issued from the manufacturer - how long will Collectors continue to buy cards that depreciate every month to infinity? Collecting stops being fun once you realize what you’re buying has no future value. 🤓⚾️
Chris here - definitely too many products getting produced. Hobby getting watered down. Concerning.
This channel is always top quality ideas from great perspectives. Keep up the great work guys!
Thank for watching!
we're in the junk was 2.0 era already, wayyy too many cards out there for any long term value. topps now is a contributing factor for sure. no rare moment insert cards to chase in packs now.
Most cards of any era end up tanking in value. Stars don’t always become legends, much less hobby greats. Junk wax 1.0 cards find value in condition (printing problems and handling issues). So-called junk wax 2.0 won’t find appreciable differences in the values of 10s vs. 8s outside of the elite tier of status symbol cards. And it won’t be the artificial pumping of rookie cards, when players used to have only 1 or up to 4-6 max. It will be certain sets/certain parallels of sets, certain short printed insert sets, or nice/meaningful relics.
BECAUSE everything will be junk...
I'm hearing rumblings. Time to sell!
Stick with Kobe’s LeBron, Jordan, Rodman, Barkley, the big names. Their prices are down on the year but definitely have value long term. Just won’t see the same price spikes as you would with new players. But a good hedge during this overprinting era
Just up through the first question so far and Scott I appreciate the new approach to moderating this one (letting everyone a chance to respond)
All great questions guys, great episode. My thoughts on each question:
1. Topps generating a ton of money (and "success") with their current model doesn't mean it's a good thing for the hobby. It's just good for their bank account. My humble opinion is that Topps has one foot on Regulation and another on a banana peel.
2. Judge not winning a chip will absolutely diminish not only his legacy but also the value of his products. I think Ohtani doesn't win one, his legacy will be intact because it seems that collectors only think of 1/1's and Logoman's when it comes to him. The chips would seem to be irrelevant when it comes to his products because right now, they all seem to be based around hisindividual accomplishments.accomplishment.
3. Dynasty Black would be horrible for the future of Topps because it's that one thing that's going to draw the wrong kind of attention, especially with Breakers involved. It'll be the singular thing that could help usher in Regulation. Topps will definitely find a way to screw it up (per Jeff's comment) because they will end up making it look completely like gambling even if they didn't intend to.
Just my thoughts.
Box prices increasing, pack odds increasing, the hobby looks more and more like gambling every day.
Thank you for typing exactly what I was about to type.
1. Completely agree. Topps NOW will not kill Topps, it'll just make them a ton of money. When the bubble on that bursts, I think it'll only really affect Topps NOW but not so much the established sets. People will start to get tired of Topps NOW and will back off of that. But I think the other sets will remain strong. If the whole sports card thing collapses, it'll be for reasons beyond the Topps NOW stuff. Also, I should note: Topps can't really hurt itself so much with NOW because...they have a monopoly. Where else are people going to go?
2. Though I think even outside of his 1/1s and such his stuff will retain value because he's possibly the greatest baseball player ever. People will want that like they want Babe Ruth stuff. There's more of this, sure, but I think the demand for Ohtani will hold up for a very, very long time. But other than that, I completely agree with you.
3. Yep. The "accessible" sets, as the Fanatics guy called them in an interview a while back, will become less and less accessible because breakers and degenerates will chase the big Dynasty Black card. These retail sets will get sucked up by breakers and the price will go up as availability for the normal collector goes down.
@@carlosaguirre9834Thanks for the thoughtful takes!
Jeff here: hard to argue with anything you say here. The next few years will certainly be interesting for the hobby.
Bottom line is just simple supply and demand. The more of something there is, the less it's worth. That's why Ohtani cards are so shocking. He has so many cards and the value is still there. I do love the moment-based patch cards. For example imagine what a logoman patch would have gone for from Aaron Judge's 62nd homerun?
Side note: one guy I'm targeting right now, Jazz Chisholm. Just picked up a PSA 10 gold refractor rookie auto. Pop 8.
If the Yanks do something special this postseason that'll help a lot, but I also think he has a big year next year. This season he hit 24 homers and stole 40 bags despite playing 101 games on the Marlins. On the Yankees, he hit 11 homers and stole 18 bags in 46 games. Pretty strong numbers.
@@JaredHettler I’d love to have seen something similar for Judge’s 62nd HR pants! NY would’ve gone nuts!
Regarding Topps Now, like the debate but disagree with Jeff when he says it's bringing more collectors into the hobby. It may bring more people in, but they're not collectors.
Jeff here: I’m not so sure. I’ve spoken with a handful of people who LOVE getting moments from games they attended, and have started collecting them, even though they were never into cards before. Will they ever buy wax? 🤷🏻♂️
But I still consider them collectors.
@@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin True. Today's average collector is much different than the collector from the 1980s, 90s, or even 00s.
I agree stuff is overprinted but this is the only thing I will personally be ripping this year. I personally think it’s a better bang for the $ or for me ¥ than anything topps offers currently.
I know u guys love shortprintd, what does the spitballin crew think about shortprinting commons going forward so collectors don’t have to dump 95% of their cards after ripping.
gotta be pack pulled. i dont consider topps now pack pulled. hey those dynasty black cards look pretty good
Chris here - I definitely want pack pulled cards as well.
I have opened thousands of packs over the decades and have never hit a real big card. I agree with Ty somewhat, as I would love to get even a 1 of 5 of a relevant player I collect. Stop loading up boxes to breakers and support your biggest base, card collectors, not just guys who flip.
I think that collecting with the intention of making money is a bad idea. Collect because you like what you're collecting, not because you hope to sell it some day.
@@glutton85 💯💯💯💯
Every card ever printed is gambling when it comes to active players.
@@outwest100az you’re not wrong! We’re betting on people
Another great discussion. I personally like the topps now and hope they use more game relics. One of my favorite Chourio cards is a relic topps now from his MLB debut
That;s a great Chourio!!
Jeff here: ooh, love that idea! Do you have a pic of that Chourio posted anywhere, would love to see it.
Just an honest question: will Shohei cards’ value actually hold and *deep breath* potentially increase IF he continues to shatter records year after year? Could that even be a thing we can’t even imagine? And/or is that just a pipe dream/ gambler’s mentality?
@@LECITIZENTEN Chris here - I don’t See why not. If he can pitch next season and hit anywhere even close to what he’s hitting now…
Best channel. Deserves more attention.
TBH this Greed Wax Era has destroyed the hobby for me! Couple that with a changing economic environment they are setting themselves up for failure. I am at this point completely stepping away from the hobby. No hobby boxes, no breakers, no retail or singles. It really sucks but I'll wait for the overall economy to correct and buy from paper hands for pennies on the dollar 🤷♂️
With respect to Topps Dynasty Black, they've already somewhat been doing this with the addition of the MLB Debut patch cards in Update Chrome. I'm curious though, if they may in the future start labeling these cards as Dynasty Black to fall under this umbrella...
@@morgan1238ify Chris here - I hope they keep Dynasty Black to online exclusive releases but well see what topps does.
I’m excited for the debut itch autos this year. Should be A LOT OF THEM!
My only input is in regards to 1.
Topps Now are lucky with timing with this specific Shohei release. The card market itself is only just starting its winter cool-down.
Baseball season IS still ongoing and Shohei’s achievement shows how important Topps see the regular season and that accumulation.
The Olympics Gold Trios was a massive advertisement that made buying Shohei cards the lottery that it’s now become.
If Topps can make truly game-worn and MLB-authenticated/stickered pieces more alluring then that can surely help build the market out. (Problem with that is that it will likely see game-worn uniforms go for more on the open market, and if Topps want a moment that Cooperstown will also want - could be an interesting balancing act…. Probably why Topps got the Shohei pants and not the jersey.)
@@TenaciousAC yeah topps knows there’s demand for this - especially RIGHT NOW, as opposed to December when the cards will ship.
This I agree with Phil the most in regards to World Series Championships in baseball player’s cards. I do not think it matters anywhere near as much as it does in basketball, or for quarterbacks in football. Specifically I’m not sure it HURTS to not have one as much as it sure can help if you win one or more, case n point David Ortiz. While a huge Red Sox local star, post season heroics Nationalized him. By contrast, Carl Yastrzemski, without a ring, still obtained stardom. Imagine how much bigger Ted Williams would have been if the wars hadn’t occurred and he had a few rings.
I cannot see how Williams would be any bigger. He already is in the upper echelon of greatness. I'm a Yankees fan. Anyone will acknowledge that Williams is in the top two or three all-time as far as slugging hitters. Ruth belongs there. Maybe Mays or Aaron. Gehrig can make an argument. No one else can enter the conversation. Bonds if not for the PEDs.
I like your analysis, and I don’t disagree at all. I guess I was thinking if you added 4-5 years to Williams’s career, pretty much during his prime, he may have ended up with 700’ish HR’s, 3,000+hits; maybe another triple crown or two, and quite possibly a ring or 2. This would have been amazing, and surely increased his collectibility anyways. His cards do well, but don’t come close to Ruth’s, or even Mays or Mantle RC’s.
I don't think they are shooting themselves in the foot. They are cashing in on Ohtani. I can't see how that backfires. More parallels and greater checklists for existing brands will do that. Scott needs to get on the beard train.
Topps is absolutely cashing in on ohtani!! Can't blame them for it. Just curious how many sets like this we'll see in the future.
Need to give more love to retail. Otherwise like everything else in this world, it's a rich man's game, and not a love for hobby.
Championships and a playoff mystique 7:22 are more likely to help a player who had a short time in the prime as opposed to a player who was a stud for their whole career and had no post season success. Madison bumgarner and the freak come to mind like Jeff said
Those giants teams are very passionately collected!
Jeff here: well-said! That’s what I was trying to get at.
@@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbinhaha I commented in the video before you guys go into that.
@@maligatorbaseball2789 On the same wavelength 💪🏼 Thanks for watching!
I think Topps Now was a genius marketing move for special achievements or interesting moments during games that I would say most collector appreciate. I joined in on the Ohtani lottery ticket cards, but I also plan on keeping it as part of my Ohtani collection unless I hit the big one. The big one would look amazing in my collection, but being completely debt free from one piece of cardboard would be more amazing. I think it Dynasty sticks with game worn pieces, they will be highly collectible. I do have to disagree with Ty on the super factors. The reason it's a super fractor is because it's extremely rare and if you Trevor Lawrence them, the value is completely lost.
I do not think that cards with little value are "garbage." 😃. My Yankees card collection has winners and losers. They are not garbage. These players had dreams and wore the best uniform in baseball. Taken as a whole, my collection is actually fascinating. My Miami Hurricanes cards have a decent following on eBay, but mostly do not come out of the gate as successful monetarily in recent years. That may change with QB Cam Ward. Shotei Ohtani cards in the 50/50, whether they are rare or not, provide collectors of all kinds a chance to enjoy a tangible item for a great sports memory. As a little girl, I might have wanted his jersey and some cards. Fanatics win! The "commons" in the 50/50 would have been perfect for me. I wanted to show my Mom who Shotei Ohtani is. (She likes NFL and NHL but not MLB and NBA). I tuned in to the game for her literally right when S.O. was at bat for the first time in Game 1. That was incredible timing! He slammed a homerun on his first at bat in The Playoffs. We cracked up. She said he was cute. Awesome! Fun memory! Let's go, YANKEES! - Heather (your friendly neighborhood Yankees fan).
Thanks for the perspective! 💪🏼
@@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin Cool, Jeff! 😃👍.
I don't think the Topps Now/Special Release sets are bad for Topps, because they don't really effect the mainstream product market. If they are a successful product long term it is a bonus. If it is a dud, then it will be quickly forgotten like all the others. As always Ty is a smart man.
ITS THE FUTURE OF THE HOBBY. BECAUSE INSTEAD OF PRINTING 200,000 BOXES PER REALESE, YOU JUST RELEASE 200,000-300,000 SINGLE CARDBOARD CARDS. CARDBOARD BASE CARDS ARE USELESS.... ESP THE BOXES.
Players who have not won the WS: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna*, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt Jr, Joey Votto, Giancarlo Stanton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Paul Skenes, Elly De La Cruz.
Products like Archives Signature Series and Museum Collection already feel like just lottery tickets. The new Ohtani Topps Now every week is gonna be a meme 😬
Is there a better chance of hitting the Ohtani superfactor or playing the mega lotto?
An excellent question 🤔
And Fanatics will just make it worse with gambling and in game live betting. I just picked up a 71 Hank Aaron Super nmt card for $25. I'll stick to proven and vintage players over lottery type gimmicks
@@chrisc4264 smart approach!
Chris here - I’ll actually be at the new fanatics sports book in Atlantic City soon. Interested to see it. Just too much sports betting all over. Espnbet is just adding to the problem too.
Cards HQ showcases are half empty besides the ones filled with the same 2 Topps Now cards and they’ve been there for awhile.
Helloooooooo Tpott is going to have you banned from this channel for insulting Daddy’s card shop 😂
@@Andrew-hq2kuI’ve spent a lot of money there and would love to buy more. Topps Now cards is not the way.
brandon crawford, brandon belt, posey, matt cain. they all got 3 rings,, crawford definitly underrated
and when rare cards of those guys come up for auction, the prices always exceed expectations.
I’m with Scotty! Tpott looking out for his “boss” business interests. He’s going to keep pumping Grandaddy Rubin who passes the bread onto Daddy Geoff Wilson who pays Tpott and lets him do his little market movers videos.
Now are Mookie cards going to go down since he can't get a hit when it counts.
Jeff here: man, he’s has a tough go of it! Luckily for him, there are at least two games left for his to turn the narrative around.
Gentlemen, great discussion.
Thanks for watching and taking the time to comment!
I ran a hedge fund. So I could explain, but I get the feeling you want to be the person to tell us.
But for a good example, the WWE was seeing its worst numbers after WCW went out of business.
Then AEW came around and WWE and AEW are seeing value around $10b combined value, and WWE was, over a decade-ish ago, falling under $1B value.
Competition is what is best. I don’t need my Masters in Financial Engineering from Columbia to tell you that.
Scott: "GET OFF MY LAWN, TOPPS"
@@mofomoco 😂😂
I'm not sure that the tarnishing of brand reputation has much bearing when there are no other brands. People may start disliking Topps more than they already do, but if they want modern cards they are forced to put up with them.
Jeff here: exactly this! As I’ve been lamenting in recent episodes, I miss the days of competing brands all having the licenses.
PO baseball is alive and rocking
⚾ 💪
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
💯💯💯💯💯
There is truly nothing like it!
Topps is ruining the hobby, Rubin does not love this hobby, hes gonna literally pump and dump, and leave us wax dorks high and dry just like gary vee is doing now. Can we just have someone who loves this hobby like us in charge? I have zero confidence that Topps will take this hobby in the right direction. Also, I hate to say this bc i think Ty is an intelligent, well-spoken mouthpiece for this hobby, however I think he must be a tad bias due to his boss? I am not saying this from a bad place bc i get it, you cant bite the hand that feeds you, but I would assume HQ needs a good relationship with topps (rubin) so he may be bias on his opinions in certain aspects. Sorry for rambling great content!!! You four gentlemen love this hobby and it shows!
The Topps Now chases are becoming extremely annoying for people who are trying to just collect the card. It bothers me that these "chase" Topps Now cards are $3 more. The cost of the Auto or that base in the auto relic is not worth more than a powerball ticket.
A powerball ticket is a very apt analogy!
This is the junk wax era 2.0 with different color cards thrown in and numbered lottery tickets. Cards are printed to the fucking moon. there’s like a 100 different sets with the same numbered cards. It’s unregulated gambling and the prices of these boxes are WAY out of control as well. The hobby is heading for a major crash if it keeps going in this direction.
Chris here - I agree. There are fewer and fewer cards that will maintain value and absolute oceans of cards taht will be completely irrelevant, forgotten, and worthless. Be careful out there!
Hmmm, what killed the wax era (1987-1993 approx) was too much product , affordability, and of course the baseball strike. I think the internet and gaming also killed collecting as it introduced another hobby for young men. This era is a fad and will fade if there is an economic downturn or some other disruption like a war or pandemic that shuts down sports again. But also think the wax era could have survived or at least ran longer if there were more autographed cards, numbered cards, special inserts etc. Getting a signed Nolan Ryan, Hank Aaron or a Jordan baseball 1991 Upper Deck card kept me in the hobby, butcards started getting expensive in 1992. The last pack I bought for almost a decade was a Topps Stadium Club pack that cost 3 bucks!
The internet and social media is why the 80's 90's junk wax era is not an apples for apples comparison.
People forgot all those Ohtani topps now 40/40 cards that absolutely no one wants now…
hahaha - yep! But Topps doesn't care after the sales window closes!
It’s RC Debut patch card multiplied by 1000
Hmmmm. Chris here - i love the debut patch and while this is similar I wouldn't suggest its a bigger card. Of course, Ohtani doesnt have an MLB debut patch auto.
I remember in the 80s and 90s how they sold us all these overprinted cards as investments. Lol.
Jeff here: absolutely! 😅
Hellooooooooooo this still occurs with the “influencers” are padding their pockets pumping and dumping 😂😂😂 During Covid it was “investment”, now it’s “keeping the hobby healthy” lmao
Single player sets are nothing new. They are fun for the fan of that player, but don't really have long term demand/value. Example: the Nolan Ryan set back in the 90's. The parallels for the Ohtani will do okay, but not as good as the main card lines.
Chris here - I remember some Nolan Ryan sets in the 90s. Pacific I think made one. I feel like this Ohtani product is just a full on gamble - does your box have one of the patch autos???? If not, you lose.
TLDW: Don’t go chasing waterfalls.
😂🍻
Topps Now has been around for awhile. There are fair number of 2018 Ohtani “rookies” you can get cheaply. I don’t think that the problem. The Ohtani 50/50 set on the other hand seems extremely cheesy. In the 90’s, you could get these commemorative sets for all sorts of players like Nolan Ryan. Novelty in nature but good for collectors. I immediately thought of these when I saw this set. I’m kinda shocked they broke this up into $25 packs and you don’t get the whole set. Plus it sold out? No thanks.
Basically, topps wanted to build a set around these few high high HIGH end chase cards. Three people will hit the lottery while 98% of the boxes will have no value in a year. You think Topps will do this for world series champions??
@@SpitballinCards if the Dodgers or Yankees win, probably. Especially if there is a dramatic moment. Cleveland or San Diego, maybe not? The more I think about this the less I like it especially if it’s done like the Ohtani 50/50.
I was confused by the Dynasty question. Are you talking about a standalone set of each individual player or the dynasty product as a whole? and for the playoff performance question imo its only going to be heavily weighted more and more with each new round or team added to the playoffs. You can't compare Barry Bond's 15 or however many at bats to players nowadays the will have 100s in some cases. thanks guys
Chris here - Scott was asking specifically about this Ohtani dynasty black autos inserted into the Ohtani 50/50 set. Will Topps do more and more of these with online exclusives? Entire releases built around a few game used patch autos?
We need a Remake of Willy Wonka with the 23 different colors of gold... or even the total refractor types to identify.
And the odds... at a certain point... people are going to just go to a simple way of enjoying the freaking chocolate!
Topps Now devaluing cards by the minute.
Well done
@@godisgreat8462 💪
Thank you 🙏🏼
What did you guys think about the top mercury?
Still feels a bit rushed especially on the third question. Wish you guys would get paid by the minute, I could listen for a longer while
@@alessandrorossi1294 thanks for the compliment - between jobs and families and dogs were recording as much as we can!!
This week in particular we actually were rushed. This was the last video we recorded and we were overtime. Trust us, we wish we could film more too!
Oh and did I see a certain fanatics CEO’s name on an ANONYMOUS posted PDiddle-List?
When you flood the market with thousands of Ohtani cards in one set you hurt the values of all cards owned. For bother serious collectors and casual collectors. Fanatics makes all the money and my cards are not selling.
Championships matter far more in football than in baseball!
@@dacryptkeeper6836 Chris here - agreed
Not always. Go look at Mantle high grade vintage vs Mays high grade vintage. Mantle is obviously way higher. Today's players I'll agree on that but Mantle won a ton of rings plus the Yankee factor. Ohtani will need a ring or two to justify his prices imo
@@chrisc4264 Ohtani's 50/50 season will ensure his prices stay higher than ANY QB who fails to win a Super Bowl!!!
@@dacryptkeeper6836 Perhaps the high end stuff but not low end. Ohtani needs championships imo to justify the cost. Just a fact imo
There are too many parallels and autos. All Topps products should be similar to the heritage box in that autos, parallels should be limited and never guaranteed in a box.
@@LeoMcGregor1 Chris here - i agree, we’re in the junk auto era right now!
The hobby is bad for the hobby.
Old men chasing Ohtani autos is pathetic. Morals/ethics > gambling/flippers
Chris here - is 45 "old?"
On the second question, didn’t get an opportunity for follow up from Jeff
Anyone wanna rewrite history
Apply AI to supply chain management