Forex Risk -- A Structure You Can Follow Right Now
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- Опубліковано 29 сер 2018
- This is what you've wanted the whole time -- an actual blueprint when it comes to Forex risk. In Forex, money management is everything, yet nobody lays out a plan you can actually use -- until now.
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ATR VIdeo -
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And staying true to form, from the emails I've been getting, this is the #1 video (coupled with the ATR video) responsible for changing traders' results from negative to positive. Just a basic level of discipline can change things dramatically.
@@troyrichardson4119 Cost of....what exactly?
No Nonsense Forex I still can’t figure out how many contracts I can enter based on this system. Have tried the calculations across a few instruments (crypto) and each time, the stop loss depth blows out. What am I missing?
@@troyrichardson4119 You don't enter trades in Forex the same way you do other equities. Contracts aren't a thing. If you check out episode 2 of the podcast, it shows you where to go to learn the differences and such.
No Nonsense Forex thanks, I’ll check it out 🙏🏼
I knew the banks had their paws on the cash, but not on the scale that you mention, new friend. I know it's no conspiracy theory either. My grandfather was a police guard for the federal reserve. He said "the federal reserve is not owned by the US government. It's only on US government soil and pays only land tax. That's all it really pays. Funny part it the federal reserve was a bad idea to begin with. The US government knew this and still did it anyway without the approval of Congress or the people. Attempts to steal our wealth for the Euproean Elitists hangs in the balance every day. Never put your gold in bank. And always keep an eye on the bank's favorite word. Fees." No conspiracy theorist. Just plain scary facts. Thank man.
I guarantee to you guys, I have been studying FX for almost two years now. One of few honest fx speaker I´ve seen at net.
I been trading for 3-4 years and wasted so much time and money being fall into trap of "Guru". I am so thankful for my son for DISCOVERING YOUR CHANNEL and PODCAST. Now my growth in trade is tremendous. If I can only share to you my trading history, oh man. THANK YOU SO MUCH VP. I may use different set of indicator (definitely not the Dirty Dozen) but the principles all derived from your teachings. YOUR ATR VIDEO IS FREAKING EYE OPENER for me plus your RISK and RATIO episodes. You are a God's gift to us.
HOW do people watch your videos and NOT take notes???? 😂😂😂
Love this video! Risk formula gives me the confidence not to be “scared” anymore.
right! And avoiding trading during news/economic data releases decreases stress that could kill a person LoL no LoL. : )
Hey how are u
Brilliant! I have been looking for money management information out there and no one has ever explained nothing even close what you just did. This channel is UNIQUE. Big Thanks to you !
I found you channel about one week ago and I must say I am really impressed of the way you teach and even more impressed that you don't charge one single penny for all this great stuff. I will be listening to all your videos more than once in the near future. Thank you and cheers from Sweden VP
VP I can't thank you enough for every video you drop, it's a hidden golden nugget among the gurus on the internet, the last 2 days iv been GRINDING on your videos and putting together a algorithm. Much thanks for everything you've done for the community and everything you continue to produce. Keep it up boss!
Hello, how's your trading now?
Never fails to hold my undivided attention to the end! Much appreciation from Kenya.
No One Is giving trading wisdom in this format or this in depth! Thank you! lights of lightbulbs are going off.
This video is pure gold ! I listen all of you podcats in 1 week, almost watched all of your videos and red alot of you blog post ! You're the best thanks a lot !
I had never taken notes in my life for anything..... and by the time i got to this video you have had me writing almost everything down
Holy Hell, I have been binge watching this channel, listening to the podcasts and reading the website for the last few days. I have been going back retesting old strategies. There are a few of them that were losers that would have been winners if I had applied the risk strategy and money management discussed here. Can't wait till I have a proper strategy and proper risk money management.
I wasn't sure where to put this comment so I put it on a video I revisited. I would like to comment on a couple of things that might help some. I come from a mountaineering/back-country skiing background. With both pursuits, there is constant risk assessment. As the saying goes, "There are old climbers and there are bold climbers. But there are few old bold climbers. Old bold climbers have superior risk assessment skills, and much of that comes with experience.
Climbers and back-country skiers divide risk into two categories, objective risk and subjective risk. Objective risk is risk you have no control over and subjective risk is risk that you may mitigate to some degree.
Although VP doesn't discuss risk in the same terminology, it is exactly what he is talking about. Just being in the market at all is an exposure to objective risk. The many tools discussed throughout the series is a fantastic blueprint to mitigate the subjective risk.
Very well done and thank you.
Cheers!
PS My favorite read on risk management by far: The Art of War. It has nothing to do with trading, it has nothing to do with climbing, but it has everything to do with both.
Great, simply great. Thanks a lot for such an impact in the whole scene. Have seen "coaching" videos from others before... lost time. This here is all you need. Thanks again and please go on with that.
I like your approach of how you refrain from mentioning other possible golden indicators so they can remain valid and give us a road map to find the grail ourselves. This is what leaving a legacy is about.
The first time I watched this video I really couldn’t have known what you meant when you said sometimes you see a signal that looks like it’s just a day away based on the algorithm. I mean, I understood the theory there, but didn’t actually know what that would look like on the charts. Now just over a month later, and with a rough system in place, I know exactly what that means. Must be on the right track.
Each of these videos really are golden nuggets. It’s takes time to apply them and really understand. But I determined about 16 months ago that I was going to find a way to EVENTUALLY become a day trader. I see the path now, and it’s very exciting. One step at a time, slow and steady wins the race
Wow!! Again. This is way better then the way I was doing it. I was doing the ratios. This is the way I was taught. I’m going to spend the hole weekend trying to find the indicators you said to find no matter how long it takes. This what I want to do with my life. Like you I hate going to work everyday to make money to support my family. I will succeed no matter how long it takes. Thank you for your knowledge.
This comment motivates me to do the same.
Hello Brother, if you could send it to me, i would appreciate it a lot! Thanks man, hleite20@hotmail.com
I'm feeling so blessed, having this guy teaching me the right way. I hope you and your family stay happy and healthy always
I know this video is 2 years old but. I've been looking for something like this for a minute. Every half decent coach tells you to use risk management. They may even say 2% but to give a formula on how to provide that to different pairs is priceless. Thank you.
VP, I love your "no nonsense" to forex. This video alone changed my trading account, results and strategy. I was lost until I found this channel. Thank you and look forward to watching and seeing more videos!
Hey How is your results one year later ?
Seriously thank you for all the in depth content, VP! I so appreciate you not just giving away all your answers/algorithm components; it forces us to actually do the work, learn and understand your concepts first. Nothing else out there has had a bigger impact on my trading strategy and mentality.
You're awesome man. Can't thank you enough for being a selfless and generous person that you are. Thank you very much for everything you're doing for us small people in the arena. Words really can't express my personal gratitude towards you. Out of millions of videos online I consider myself very lucky to have crossed paths with you're invaluable content and knowledge. Outside of money this is the best way I can thank you. I'm subbed to your channel, like all vids I watch, am following your instructions on your website and am almost done with babypips. I again, Humbly thank you:)
Before I started watching you, I thought that podcast would be boring. But later I saw that your way of explaining things is better and you have a natural style of talking about trade. Thank you for your effort and please keep on doing these videos.
Hasnt been up to 24 hours I subscribed and I’ve been watching chronologically and I’m here. Soo Glad i found this !😫🙏🏽
For anybody who wants a little short cut to calculating your pip value Just copy and paste this into your calculator change X and Y obviously.
X = account balance
Y = ATR(14) VALUE
(X × 0.02) ÷ (Y × 1.5)
I hope this helps. You can test it on the example shown in this video if you want confirmation its correct.
(50236 * 0.02) ÷ (86 * 1.5)
Thank you; I am soooooo bad with numbers !!!
Ad Z = askprice
(X x 0.02) : (Y x 1.5) : (10 : Z) = Lotsize
(50236 x 0.02) : (86 x 1.5) : (10 : 1.1290) = 0.87
how can i do that in crypto?
@@TheZoekie please how can I calculate my TP
Just came back to re watch this gem. Its 2022 and you'll forever be the man who taught me how to trade Forex. I'm one year in I'm profitable but have to pay my dues of the learning process. Thanks VP.
Hey there VP! I haven't seen all of your videos (working on that) but I religiously follow you podcasts! Have to say thank you man and a big shout out here from a portuguese guy living in Munich, Germany! Continue the good work!
This is by far the best video on FOREX risk video i have ever watched .I finally get it (RISK), and thank you VP for helping us learn this stuff the right way and helping us building OUR OWN Trading system!
I wish I had seen this video before losing my $5000 and blow my account, but I will be back soon I am doing an extra uber driving to save some money do be back ,. Thanks
Respect
Awesome for taking the extra effort
Leggo!!
hey man, it's been 6 months. Are you back on your feet?
you can say that again, i have blow several accounts now in the thousands.
Thank you so much, no one ever told me these things ...you just said now...WOW! I've got the feeling before I stumbled on your youtube channel that everyone is just looking out for him/herself and basta for the newcomers , you can ask questions but few or little answers, where most of these answers doesn't make senses. Thank you for your time and patience with us.
VP you are so amazing. This video is both priceless and timeless. You truly are serving us. You don't only give us value but by NOT giving out your entire algorithm and trading system, you encourage us to take initiative.. to create our own system because the truth is, real bosses create their own systems and you are making bosses out of us! God bless all of your financial endeavours ten-fold!!!
The very best Forex UA-cam channel..!!! Love from India !! God Bless You Brother.
The best thing about this channel is that you are not handover all the things we need to be pro in this market.. you want us to work on some stratiges and practice to find out the rest things we need to be a pro.
You are awesome..Thank so much for this very practical no BS video lesson! I will watch ALL you have.
THANK YOU VP!! Thank you for taking the time to outline risk management. makes a world of difference.
I discovered your videos by accident, having been actively seeking all kinds of information since November and viewing lots of videos from brokers to individual traders (prefer the personal views, more authentic). In my first month of Forex trading (39 positions, 9 loses, £453 real money lost!) I'm learning a lot. Cautious by nature but happy to accept risk, thinking deeply about the actual aspects you post on and I'm very grateful. No spin, no sell, cuts through the noise. I can focus so much better going forward.
For those confused by the position size, I think I can clarify this. The platform VP is showing here does the calculation behind the scenes, he is simply changing the position size (in 10,000's) to match his calculation for Risk/Pip. The platform uses the following inputs to produce the $/pip number:
*1. Tick Value of the pair's Quote Currency (the minimum tick of the pair, which is 0.0001 for all pairs except for JPY, which is 0.01) divided by the pair's exchange rate at either the bid, ask or mark.* For instance, the current tick value of the GBP/NZD is 0.0001 / 1.91954 (at the marked rate) = 0.000052096. This was as of 11 AM or so today.
*2. Base Value of the pair in Account Currency (which is the currency the account is denominated in).* This is the value of the Base currency (in this case, GBP) value in USD (or whatever your account currency is denominated in). For instance, the current USD value of GBP is 1.23499, which is the "mark" rate for the GBP/USD. This value, 1.23499, will be the Base Value in USD for all pairs where GBP is in the Base position. Again, this was as of 11 AM or so today.
*3. Position Size in 10,000's*
The formula is:
*(Tick Value x Base Value) x Position Size.*
VP has to put some value into the field for it to start the calculation...he adjusts the position size to match the $/pip he produced with the Risk and ATR calculations. There are other ways to do this, but his method does what he says it does... :) Its a cool feature to have, I use a spreadsheet tapped into my brokers RTD feed.
If you are adept with Excel you can create your own calculator using the formulas above. You don't need a RTD feed, either...although most brokers do provide it. You will need to enter the numbers by hand.
If my account size were $50,000, my Risk would be $1000. The ATR value (1.5 x ATR) would be 1.5 x 177.1 = 266 (as of today). I'm going to set my stop 266 pips away from my entry point, and the value of each pip will be $1000/266 = $3.7594.
OK, just realized that you can actually predict the position size by making the above formula equal to the $/pip value. If you're still with me, the formula for position size would be:
*Position Size = Pip Value / (Tick Value x Base Value);* The position size is equal to the Pip Value divided by the product of the Tick Value and the Base Value.
In the above example, it would be Position Size = $3.7594 / (0.000052096 x 1.23499) = 58,432. Position size would need to be rounded to the nearest 1000...so 58,000. 5 minis and 8 micros!
thank you!
What are we logically trying to do ?? The video was much more confusing and I'm a beginner but completely still don't understand
I would just calculate my 2% max risk against my trading capital ... and use the amount of 1.5% of Atr to see if this amount was within my max admissible 2% risk ... if it was r then i would place the stop limit against the entry price level ... so far so good ...
If my 2% of usd 10000 capital is usd 200 and my 1R is within this amount then I would use this 1.5 atr to pace sl against entry price and this sl amount in usd is my risk ... for a standard lot size I would multiply the customer sl amount by 10 to v get pips and then multiply it again by 10 to get usd per pip ... I would see if this amount felt too big or else I would just reduce it to the mini lot size... how x wrong am I? Just started demo trading of gold
I am so glad I stumbled across this channel. I've spent my whole Sunday watching these videos and taking so many notes! What I like is, your approach to education seems to be 'I will drop you off on the correct road, but you'll have to find the destination yourself'. This encourages people to jump out and say okay, I need to make this work for myself now, and not rely heavily on someone else. I cant wait for more content. This channel will explode in popularity soon, and so it should. Thanks man.
hows your results so far @Joshua? doing better i suppose?
sat here for 5 hours going through his videos with a notebook, making notes...testing them and then making more notes and testing them on a dummy account...by the time i get to putting money into it ill already have a damn decent algorithm and knowledge of trading, thank you dude. Great videos!
Thank you for another great video VP. I'm really shitty at maths to do these calculations confidently but what I noticed is I'm slowly getting used to it and it truly is not too bad after all. So for everyone who is following this channel. Guys practice and don't be afraid of the calculations even if u are horrible at maths it will become peace of cake further down the road
This way of money management is great for those who are not good at math -- like me.
OMG - You have just shown me the errors of my way. Thanks so much VP! Keep up the great work !!!!
VP. Thanks a lot man. My trading partner and I about a week ago got through your Core Concepts playlist. We are now refining our money management strategy and trading algorithm. We have seen amazing results already with about a 80% wins. It's still early days but your guidance we believe have put us on to a much better path. Really appreciate the time you take to help others. Stay Blessed.
This weekend I will start with concentrating myself on all your video's and would not stop following your teaching until I have seen all and having them Bookmarked. Thanks VP, you are the Greatest ...
Thank you for this RISK video. 2 years after I subscribed this, and finally understood how important it is.
4:15 , this here is what killed 3 of my accounts and nearly 15k. Wished you were around back in 2010 when I started VP, but glad your here now. After starting watching your podcast I decided to try forex again in the future
how is that going?
@@Alex-ym9pu I would like to know too
The only real content creator on youtube...Great Job VP!!
VP, who ever you are...you deserve a big hug !!...I love you brother...thanks a lot for the time and effort you have put in
I've Binged On 20 Forex Q&A Podcast, 6 UA-cam Videos & About 7 Blog Posts In The Course Of A Day & A Half & I Agree Wholeheartedly That NO ONE is giving up The Juice Like This. I've Been An Active Forex Trader For A Little Over 6 Months & The Content On This Channel Has Raised My IQ Tremendously. Very Much Appreciated VP.
VP , THIS IS INCREDIBLE! YOU GIVE PEOPLE WHO KNOW THEY CAN DO THIS ___A REAL PATH TO AUTONOMY!
Absolutely agree, that's one of the most important videos a trader must watch, it completely changed my trading, and you know? I'll keep this forever! Wake up traders!! Thanks Patrick!!!
I have been looking for Risk Management plan for a long time but I haven't come across anything straight forward and applicable like this. Thanks for sharing this wonderful knowledge.
you re creating a masterpiece when it comes to setting blueprints for the future 1 per%. Am 100% sure that youre making HISTORY.
Sendin luv from ETHIOPIA
Hey man, I'm a complete newb on trading. right now I am working my way through all of your stuff. 1-2 videos daily and already got so much info i've never thought about before. i'll take my time, take notes and look forward to become a smart trader. Bless you, greetings from germany.
Thanks bro you are the best I appreciate
Hey VP. Thank you for making this video. I can honestly say I have learned more in the 31min 30 seconds in this video than I have learned in my 2 years of trading. 2 losing years at that. No one has ever explained risk management like you have here. For me this is the best video you have made to date. ( am working my way through the play list ). Please keep sharing your knowledge. I really appreciate it. As am sure everyone else does. Your keeping it real, and I thank you for that.
Risk management so key. Thank you for demonstrating this.
Legit no BS channel for Forex. Thank you. I anticipate your next video.
A friend of mine is teaching me how to trade XAU/USD, And he uses your videos as guidelines, such solid content.
Actually on the over leveraging part, another method of deciding which currency to use is to look at the interest rates. So for example I'd like to short both AJ / AC .. I would choose AC as I'd probably earn a little or nothing much on swaps. However if I choose to short AJ, the daily swaps will eat into my profits. Hope this helps!
Watch it one again and the more I watch it the more I LOVE it !!! thank you VP !!!
Thanks for this, I've taken notes and watched the video 3 times in order to memorize this info.
This Channel gives Infos that ive never heard on any youtube channel, fuck the Mainstream this is the good shit!
VP. Spent the whole week in the truck driving around while working, no pandora, no Xm radio, no talk shows, NOTHING BUT FOREX Q&A PODCAST ON BLAST. Now I gotta catch up on the blog..
Get it!!
This is amazing, using the atr for setting sl is more realistic to considering previous price structures proposed by other trainers. Thank you so much for this insight!
There is not a more impactful trading channel out there on UA-cam than yours. 3 year trader here, futures, and I have to say thank you for everything you do for the trading community. I've had so many puzzle pieces that I just couldn't quite put together until I came across your content. Thank you VP!
thank you VP, you have enlightened me on everything i was constantly doing wrong. I am now learning the right way & will use all the tools you are teaching us to level up my trading, THANK YOUUU
I did my own test on the ATR after watching this Video and I must say this is the best indicator to set SL. For example i would always use 60 pips SL on a 4 Hour GBPUSD chart, but when I went back and backtest i see that the ATR was would give me a better calculation sometime even lower than the 60 pips I use to set which would give me better reward on my trade when going in my direction. Thanks 🙏
If you ready this please reply
I ADD THE SPREAD IN ON TOP OF THE ATR %
Thank You Vp!!
I will keep you updated
I would agree this is the MOST important video you have hands down ( yes more value than the ATR) I'd never used the ATR but this video after watching the ATR video showed me how not only to use the ATR (Other videos out there SUCK!) but to calculate risk, and most importantly PIP SIZE. I'm treating this like college. I am an O.K trader but you are making me more confident that I can be what I set out to be A DOMINANTE trader
Thank you, great content. Will put into practice this week and looking for those indicators. Keep up the great work, really appreciate it!
Hey VP, thanks for the really nice video. Shouldn't we also take into consideration the spread of the specific pair during these calculations?
Take risks and minimize risk !!! What a keyword. I feel that you are the best and only mentor who educates traders. Thanks from Thailand
Man you are like a breath of fresh air, consuming every vid over and over. Thank you for all this!
Cant believe ive only just found you
This episode is full of gems 💎
I've been real trading for past 2 years off and on with little success. Mostly demo trading now because I feel there's no point in risking real money if you can't do it in demo plus unwilling to give up until I succeed. I can say I've studied a kazillion things and this content seems way more realistic, logical and down to earth. I am generally a skeptic since I've been burned so many times with useless learning. I keep an open mind. I trust, but verify. I have to say, I haven't verified yet. Either way, this content does excite me going forward. Awesome stuff!
Ive been studying for 1 year and i found a system that has a 65 percent win rate.
Had questions after the ATR video. You answered them all here. Each video has good things, but put the videos together and you got great things. On to the next video.
Great dialogue. I enjoy your videos in that they encourage me to find a method that works for me. I will continue to use MT4 demo version until I make consistent gains and understand money management thoroughly. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experiences!
Priceless!!!!. Perhaps the best video I have ever watched in my four+ years as a trader. A huge thank you.
I have been working on my trend strategy for a short while and this has helped alot and has already made some major improvements just from watching your videos. However, I use some indicators that you might not agree with but they work well once I have modified the parameters. They now provide really good trade entry and exit levels just from these two indicators
Lol I'm guessing RSI at 80/20.
This is great! Especialy mentioning to keep it 2% per currency pair, avoiding over leverage. Thank You!
this is what screwed me up in my demo account i risked 1% per trade, but i was sometimes investing 30% of my trades on a single pair ty learning a bit a time
watched this video times already VP & it still Rocks..Awsome info!!!
Amazing teacher, hats off. Only half way trough and on the first day of testing.
Turned my demo account from red to green :)
Continue adjusting settings
I'd also like to point out - mostly to those who are doubtful of the logic behind using the ATR for stop-loss placement - that it is a volatility based initial stop-loss placement strategy, and probably the most organic one that exists. It is quite logical in principle and easy to calculate. Its a powerful tool.
A volatility based stop-loss placement strategy should place your initial stop-loss order far enough out to prevent a loss due to the "random" or "normal" noise of the market. It will also limit your loss in the event that the "random" or "normal" noise turns into a meaningful move against you.
so my question, will you still be risking 2% per trade?
@@sunsfree no. the stop loss is 2% risk, while your exit should be much much less.
Dude, I don’t know what to say but you actually blew my mind with all the knowledge you are passing down. Stupid enough. I actually blew my 50k account for the past year looking for the best indicator and entry point. I kept my risk management at 5% but I have no idea in calculating the stop loss. Everything I did was based on emotion.
I really want to thank you for providing me with a clear vision and I hope I can hit it off with my final 10k deposit. I’m not chasing my loss but I hope I can set myself up for the future.
Anyway, thanks again for all the knowledge.
You could have just gave me that 50k
JUST STARTING FOREX TRADING , IVE BEEN WATCHING ALL YOUR VIDEO AND I LEARNED ALOT! MIND BLOWNED ALL THE TIME. THANKS VP .
You're such an inspiration! Thank you for being real
Subscribed to the channel a couple days ago. I've been around trading for some years now, never consistently taking profits so I decided to give it a last change before quiting. I don't know how I found this channel but all the information provided on it has changed drastically my way of seeing trading. Thanks a lot VP.
I really want to start trading FOREX to supplement my retirement account. I find your channel very informative and motivational. I plan on watching all of your videos and podcasts, then back test before I plan on start trading. I hope to start trading starting next year. I am going to take my time getting as much education as possible.
Looking forward to consuming all of your content. You're amazing!!
This guy is awesome! I subscribed two days ago and have learned so much. I have been trading for years without getting the results I wanted but I am now rebuilding and rethinking my trading strategy. Thanks VP, great work!!! I will keep following.
Absolutely the most impactful UA-cam channel for trading
Man on some next level mission
VP : "My goals are beyond your understanding"
VP - absolutely first class...tremendous work!!
Very nicely and clearly explained. Thanks for the effort you put into putting out the contents for free.
Here goes my treasure hunt for confirmation and exit indicator :-)
The beginning court me off guard 😂😂😂
This is amazing. I'm glad i stumbled into this channel. God bless you.
Im excited! Great channel without the greed mentality. Awesome teaching style!
VP - in the risk video, you mentioned that the exit indicator should get you out of the trade before the stoploss is reached. If we are to check our charts once a day, prior to the daily candle close, how does the exit indicator get you out of the trade without a conditional order being entered to close your trade once there is an exit indication? The exit indicator could indicate an exit at any time, but one wouldn't know if they didn't check until prior to the daily candle close the following day. Time is pips, but time is time also, so just wondering how you handle this. Thanks.
when I have a question in mind that I dont know where to find the answer (EX:over leveraging). then i an watching your video and out of nowhere you just give the answer to me without me asking. LOL you can read amateur traders mind LOL
VP I consider this video to be one of the most important videos you ever done. Thanks for your dedication & humbleness to share your valuable & appreciated knowledge.
I cannot express how great this video is for ALL fx traders. I’ve heard about the 2% previously, but this gives a clear, concrete method on how to put this 2% risk rule in play. This video is exactly what I needed. Thank you so much ❤