📈 Stock Analysis Tool I Use: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson 🎥 More free content: ua-cam.com/channels/bta0n8i6Rljh0obO7HzG9A.html 🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
You’re saying Netflix is winning but I think you’re overlooking Tesla. Tesla is winning in a similar fashion with the charging station war by having every auto maker concede to Teslas charger
The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?
A portion into an SP500 etf long and then speculate w what is left. Time in the market, not timing the market, matters more, but good luck and the fun part is the research and finding an edge though and trying to beat the market...which can be done for a while or longer while.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
True, the idea of a portfolio-coach used to sound generic, but a new study by investopedia actually found that demand for portfolio-coaches sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounters, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $900k from an initially stagnant reserve of $250K all within 14months.
@@martingiavarini Big Credits to “Catherine Morrison Evans” she has a web presence, so you can simply search for, there are some others but it might be difficult to get them, but Catherine has been a good guide through the year.
@@Oly_laura Thanks, I just googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes.
I came here to learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k. Somehow this video has helped shed light on some things, but I'm confused about the current market volatility, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.
I’ve been on both end of the spectrum, I was lnvesting on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfoIio-advisor for guidance, It’s been over 2 years and I’ve scaled up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $700k in just about 24months.
@@africanboi4542 Interesting. I've a lump sum doing absolutely nothing at all in my bank account, i wanna gets something started with it. You seem to be doing excellent for yourself, how do you achieve this?
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
@JosephGreen7 Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years,
@JosephGreen7 Having a counselor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor ASHLEY AIRAGAHI who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
I suck at selling. I equate it to being in a big hurry at the grocers and constantly changing lines and ending up waiting much longer than staying in the first one. LOL. Had I never sold any stocks in my 5 years of selling I'd be able to retire now at 57. Sold AMD at 80.00 with 9.00 cost. Sold Google at 96 with 69 cost. Sold KR at 40 with a 26 cost. Sold Cat at 125 with 100 cost. I have dozens I can list. Yes I made money but left a fortune on the table.
these last 5 years were bubble years. Even Buffet sold apple and delta, etc so don't blame yourself. someone said 'the market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent' Another quote i like is 'nobody committed suicide from winning too little' at least you get to fight another day and hopefully you have fun doing it
Just because a stock/crypto is going up doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. just because a stock is going down doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. theres more to a stock than just its stock price. An entire company more. focus on the company, not just the stock price or the bitcoin price, I trade and hold profits keep up the great work! and also Nate FLINT has been doing a great job reviewing all chart, trade and techniques on BTC which has enhance the growth of my portfolio to 17 BTC lately.
His training program has been insightful, I have been growing monthly and have been able to increase my portfolio from 1.5BTC to more than 3.5BTC with his daily signals.
So you are selling basically when the sentiment is bad, exactly when the price is in the gutter. You called it fundamentals but lets be honest here your fundamentals will be influenced by irrelevant short term news. Just remember what you did with META. Also you were one bad earnings away from selling Netflix like Bill Ackman
It’s one of the problems with media, their “fundamentals” and “value” are highly correlated with share price because they both depend on popularity and buzz.
I sold all my shares of netflix at 420$ (bought during last year and got a nice 60% profit). I think it's a great company and will grow a lot in the future and agree with Joseph, but compared to other companies it's definetely overvalued right now. Netflix will have a hard battle against other streaming companies in the next few years. It may be in the lead now, but that doesn't justify this PE ratio. It just doesn't have enough growth potential right now. Instead I bought Disney since I believe its a great value play and investors are a bit confused to be honest.
Would love if you could go over what you buy and on the rare ocations what gou sell in your videos as a recap. I would love to track your portfolio as youre smarter than me in this line of field but I cant do that if you dont show your buys and sells up to date :( other than that long time subscriber, I never miss a video.
Hi Joesph! I have been holding 4 META options Jan 2024 245 call for almost a year now. I have made some 200% profit but still have not sold any yet. I am afraid I would miss out on some more potential gains. I was wondering if you could shed some light on how to decide on when to close out on those calls. What would you have done? Would you sell 1 or 2 out of 4 and hold 2 for couple of months or close out on all 4 of them as AI boom could be fading away now?
@Joseph Carlson. How do you determine the exit strategy? I'm down 40% on DIS. Difficult decisions to make. Been with you since the beginning, love your channels and content!
Hi Joseph, many of the things you said when you created this excellent video are turning out to be proved correct over time, like your sagacious decision to hang onto NFLX. And DIS is still in the red even as of 1/10/24.
I don't think it's fair to judge Disney's FCF performance over the last 3 years. It's been hit by literally a once in a century global pandemic that completely shut down almost all of its revenue streams (parks, media and experiences). It's key to watch it's recovery closely but I don't think it should reflect poorly on the company or it's management, or at least should be taken into consideration when judging
Joseph, have looked into the M1 finance savings account that is claiming a 5%APY? Is it legitimate and how does it compare to other high yielding savings account at the moment. Thanks.
In my opinion none of the streaming/media stocks are the place to be. Not even Netflix. It’s a tough business where it’s hard to make money and competition is fierce. Netflix is overvalued. It’s foolish to think they will have good growth to meet their valuation. To be honest, Joseph is too much of a gut feeling investor. He believed in Disney at $160. Now he does something similar with Netflix. But the truth is, Netflix is priced to perfection. The downside risk is quite big.
Marvel fatigue is not the problem. Bad Marvel movies/shows is the problem. Nearly every movie since endgame has been lackluster at best, and straight bad at worst. The only "good" things that have come out are the last spider-man movie(notably NOT a Disney movie) and the Hawkeye Christmas special. Everything else has been meh or worse. The same can be said of some of star wars, namely the last two jedi movies, and some of the shows. We shouldn't blame people not watching on them being "tired" of good content, when they're not in fact receiving good content.
Just having a total return in terms of a percentage tells us nothing about how much it has been per year. We need that information to compare company to company. could incorporate that.
I never sell because I’m an index investor. But I do buy bitcoin and ethereum during down turns and sell them during bull runs. I make more doing that in 4 year cycles than I do over 10 years buying index.
I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.
Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?
with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.
That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.
The ne thing I think you overlooked in Disney is their Brand. They are no longer seen as a kids fairytale. The photos of the men dressed as princess in the “ Princess makeover” did not help. The visual solidified those who were concerned about going with kids . Disney is the first BUD- like it on not .
Netflix content sucks, I respect the love and effort you put into investing into that company but you're just hyping for one year of positive cash flow, my bet is streaming will be as airlines, a service that many people still use but that is overcrowded and will be very unprofitable
Buffett is not talking up a stock he's still buying. I think you're definitely right about Netflix, it's the clear winner, but you're wrong about PARA. Give it 1-2 years and watch how much cash it's throwing off. Paramount executives selling the company for half of book value would be criminal.
Might be dumb, but I sold my Netflix today in my taxable account made 145% long term gain. Want to repurchase in my IRA at some point if it drops. Probably made a bad decision selling though lol.
You missed mentioning the 5 year returns on Netflix when comparing other media companies. Netflix returned 9% vs 50%+ for S&P. Granted you are bullish on the future of netflix, but its fair to call this out when you put up the 5 year charts for other competitors.
Paramount has the best library, they aren't a difficult buy or deal for a very wealthy company. Their content is the absolute best, considering they own the thousands of classics that will be watched for decades to come.
It sounds like self-justification of someone whose portfolio only breaks even when the big tech soar, not as someone who knows when to buy or when to sell.
Once you sell a company, you don't say if you lost anything or how much it was. It's just gone like it never was. Like peloton. without that information. There's no way you can figure out total return from the portfolio. Also, you seem to be adding money every month. Time to hire an auditor.
I feel with Disney it’s not the Assets or the IP that’s the problem , it’s extremely poor management. It’s like when warren buffets said “i like good companies that even a idiot can run because one day one will” ….that’s Disneys boat right now. Disney with good management as a company is well beyond streaming, it’s not a steaming company , it has a streaming segment. I think of other future profit drivers like the rise of digital merchandise and how much cap ex they will save & margin expansion. Especially with these VR & AR integrations. Digital commerce market is set to grow to over 9 trillion by 2027, but we will see haha
I agree that Disney has a lot of unused potential. They could easily be a decent profitable company. But the problem is that they have already peaked. The few new chances they get, will be evened out by declining core business.
@@DoctorDoom69 theme parks are stretched, travel is past its peak, box office is declining, TV channels are yesterday's news. It's very difficult to find new sources of growth/profitability. People also tend to forget the stock ran up hard over the last decade. Despite the drop, it's not cheap at all.
@@PaintrainX peak relative to what ??? People are always going to travel in the future , tv channels will just cross platforms , box office is declining for now. You are taking like everything is coming to a never ending halt which isn’t true. You shouldn’t expect to get great companies cheap. With good companies fair is cheap.
@@DoctorDoom69 I'm not saying they will go out of business. But it doesn't take Einstein to see how they're past their prime. People have so many options nowadays. The Disney brand is not what it used to be, especially not from a business perspective. Even Buffett acknowledged how those legacy companies are struggling and it might not be the best idea to pick stocks based on what they used to be.
If there can be a reason to buy, there can be a reason to sell. Totally agree forever it the best holding period but there are legit reasons to sell sometimes! Never just hold the bag to protect your ego lol!
Watching this video after the revelation of Google's newest AI demo, Gemini.... Not quite gigantic news to cause great concern right now but hopefully Google becomes more transparent in the promotion of their AI development products...
You’re saying Netflix is winning but I think you’re overlooking Tesla. Tesla is winning in a similar fashion with the charging station war by having every auto maker concede to Teslas charger
Just one more thing, I don't know what your age is. You need this information A sixty five year old person is going to be doing a completely different thing than a twenty five year old person. I understand you're not telling anybody to anything. But to do what you do, it seems that you need to incorporate a few more things as things get complicated. Just my ideas for you.
How could you sell Disney? You kept telling us, week after week, about the Disney+ growth numbers and how the theme park and theatrical film economics don't mean anything anymore what with Nu Media and streaming taking over.
Hi Joseph! Question, if you have 1 million dollars and you can only buy 5 stocks as a condition of getting the money, which 5 stocks will you buy? Just asking for a friend 😅
One reason is that I really do enjoy doing analysis on stocks and the process of it, I think it's something I'll want to do even if I was retired. Another reason Is I think I can beat the Indexes. QQQ for example holds a lot of companies I think are of very high valuation (NVDA for example), that I would not hold if I were to pick my own portfolio. We'll see how it works out. If I did not enjoy analysis I would for sure just index and spend my time doing something I do enjoy.
netflix's content is garbage. you are doing your viewers a favor to say Paramount is a good investment right now because the risk/reward is there and the price has come down to a great valuation. Either way, Netflix has a great stock, but a horrible and quickly expiring content library. They're looking to Jake Paul for new content.. that says it all. Thanks for the video Joseph.
I'm keeping tabs on Disney. Agree they have done badly in the last couple of years, but it is still Disney. They have really strong IPs and their theme parks are doing really well. Obviously streaming wise, netflix has won. But the parks, I don't know how strong the other competitors are to overtake Disney on that front. Disney is on my watchlist for the time being.
Keep in mind that I sold Disney at $115. I had to wait around for a while to get a half-decent exit point to the stock. I'm *not* predicting that the stock won't go higher from here. My sell criteria is that I think the moat is getting weaker and the company is simply becoming less predictable. So I would rather try to look for a decent exit point and focus on companies I think are more predictable. I would not be shocked if Disney went for a good run end of this year or next.
While DIS IP value may have eroded a little the real catalyst for their pain (just like other legacy media) was getting into streaming! To be fair, they saw NFLX doing well with a small but growing vault of original IP and correctly thought that they could leverage their (DIS) amazing IP vault it would be a good growth story. Streaming also allowed for revenue generation during the pandemic with parks and theaters were closed. However, they underestimated the costs and overestimated the stickiness of Disney+. Agree, better to wait for a more gnarly wave to get into DIS but it may take years.
A question I had is… does the valuation ever become a fundamental change in the business? The easy answer is no, but if the expectations require perfection on all fronts and weakness from all competitors then how is that not fundamental? (This a rhetorical question and not related to Joesph’s holdings)
Excellent video. I'm impressed. I see you as becoming a legendary investor, similar to some of the famous investors you profile. You generally present original and well-thought-out analyses. It's fascinating to see you grow and mature over the years. Well done.
Dis destroyed star wars with stupidity. For that matter almost everything coimg out of Hollywood is crap. Unless they return to quality output they are all doomed. Love your quality show joseph!
That's really weird. I have been told by multiple people that the notification bell is not working. Something to consider is following the "Joseph Carlson Show" on podcast, I post most episodes there as well and it also acts as a notification on new episode release.
Netflix's gross profit margin has plateaued around 40% over the past 4 years. The average profit margin over that same period is 13%. If you fix that, a terminal multiple fo 20 and a 10% discount rate, you need 10 years of 20% revenue growth in order to justify a valuation of 190b, something that, so far, they have only shown to be able to accomplish when the subscriber base was growing fast. Disney's problem is that the high-margin linear netowrk business is being replaced by an immature and still unprofitable streaming business: the question is where will that margin stabilize.
Disney Parks: 28.7b revenue and 7.9b operating income as of FY22. Excluding unallocated expenses, interest and taxes (in proportion to the segment revenue) we are down to 5.5b profit (20%). Assuming 5% revenue growth, 20% profit margin, 25% dividend distribution and terminal multiple of 20, discounting at 10% you get $44. Disney Media: 55b revenue growing at a 8.5% CAGR over the past 5 years. Operating margin used to be around 30% pre-streaming and is now down to 8% as of FY22. Assume 5% revenue growth going forward, same terminal multiple of 20 and same 25% dividend distribution. Here the big question is what streaming margin they will be able to achieve over the next decade: 5%: $21 Media valuation; $65 total. 7.5%: $31 Media valuation; $75 total. 10%: $41 Media valuation; $85 total. 12.5% (Netflix margin): $51 Media valuation; $95 total. If you were a pre-streaming value-oriented Disney investor, you either sold when they announced the streaming venture or you decided to wait and see, and then sold during the streaming euphoria. Disney stock price is where it belongs right now. Netflix's was for a short while and is now disconnected from reality again.
@@nickyRavioliTurbine business is a bad industry now. It's basically betting on powering with gas when we know solar + batteries will win. CAT also has a struggling turbine business.
12:29 I bought your dip once dividends come back it’s going to be a strong hold. I give it 4 to 5 years the pandemic babies will make it boom. The 90’s kids are currently sharing nostalgic memories with their little ones.
The question is when will the dividend return? I’m down pretty big on it and thinking it would be better to take the loss and collect dividends elsewhere instead of hoping for it to return and then waiting some more for appreciation in share price.
@@rosejackson3849 They are aiming to distribute a dividend by the end of calendar year 2023 but who knows how that out come may go. Personally me I can’t offer you the financial advice not fully knowing your situation but I did sell all my shares at the beginning of December 2020 only recently I been buying back in since October of 2022 I’m slowly riding this one back in. Hopefully I hold 240 shares again before November.
My grandma has hold her stocks for almost 60 years, 30x her investment and did not check it until she was 90y old, 1k investment into a lumber company, she gets paid over 2k/quarter now. She still don't think its time to sell.
📈 Stock Analysis Tool I Use: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
🎥 More free content: ua-cam.com/channels/bta0n8i6Rljh0obO7HzG9A.html
🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
You’re saying Netflix is winning but I think you’re overlooking Tesla.
Tesla is winning in a similar fashion with the charging station war by having every auto maker concede to Teslas charger
Agree with both of your accessment on GOOG and NFLX.
The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?
A portion into an SP500 etf long and then speculate w what is left. Time in the market, not timing the market, matters more, but good luck and the fun part is the research and finding an edge though and trying to beat the market...which can be done for a while or longer while.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
True, the idea of a portfolio-coach used to sound generic, but a new study by investopedia actually found that demand for portfolio-coaches sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounters, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $900k from an initially stagnant reserve of $250K all within 14months.
@@Oly_laura I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
@@martingiavarini Big Credits to “Catherine Morrison Evans” she has a web presence, so you can simply search for, there are some others but it might be difficult to get them, but Catherine has been a good guide through the year.
@@Oly_laura Thanks, I just googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes.
I came here to learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k. Somehow this video has helped shed light on some things, but I'm confused about the current market volatility, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.
I’ve been on both end of the spectrum, I was lnvesting on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfoIio-advisor for guidance, It’s been over 2 years and I’ve scaled up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $700k in just about 24months.
@@africanboi4542 Interesting. I've a lump sum doing absolutely nothing at all in my bank account, i wanna gets something started with it. You seem to be doing excellent for yourself, how do you achieve this?
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
@JosephGreen7 Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years,
@JosephGreen7 Having a counselor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor ASHLEY AIRAGAHI who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
I suck at selling. I equate it to being in a big hurry at the grocers and constantly changing lines and ending up waiting much longer than staying in the first one. LOL.
Had I never sold any stocks in my 5 years of selling I'd be able to retire now at 57. Sold AMD at 80.00 with 9.00 cost. Sold Google at 96 with 69 cost. Sold KR at 40 with a 26 cost. Sold Cat at 125 with 100 cost.
I have dozens I can list. Yes I made money but left a fortune on the table.
these last 5 years were bubble years. Even Buffet sold apple and delta, etc so don't blame yourself. someone said 'the market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent' Another quote i like is 'nobody committed suicide from winning too little' at least you get to fight another day and hopefully you have fun doing it
Can I ask…. What do you do when all the companies you own aren’t “on sale” do you just hold cash and wait or DCA into everything? Thanks 🎉
"Buy the boring companies" is holding up well.
Just because a stock/crypto is going up doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. just because a stock is going down doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. theres more to a stock than just its stock price. An entire company more. focus on the company, not just the stock price or the bitcoin price, I trade and hold profits keep up the great work! and also Nate FLINT has been doing a great job reviewing all chart, trade and techniques on BTC which has enhance the growth of my portfolio to 17 BTC lately.
His training program has been insightful, I have been growing monthly and have been able to increase my portfolio from 1.5BTC to more than 3.5BTC with his daily signals.
This is an opportunity for newbies and old holder to capitalize on, It's quite a shame people can't see this, trading is everything
Much inspired by this , can you share helpful info on your advisor?
HE IS ON TELEGRAM,
Nateflint
So you are selling basically when the sentiment is bad, exactly when the price is in the gutter. You called it fundamentals but lets be honest here your fundamentals will be influenced by irrelevant short term news. Just remember what you did with META. Also you were one bad earnings away from selling Netflix like Bill Ackman
I don’t think you understood it🤔
He is talking about change in the fundamentals and not in sentiment
What did he do with META?
It’s one of the problems with media, their “fundamentals” and “value” are highly correlated with share price because they both depend on popularity and buzz.
Bad earnings does cause bad sentiment but bad earnings does also cause bad returns…
I sold all my shares of netflix at 420$ (bought during last year and got a nice 60% profit). I think it's a great company and will grow a lot in the future and agree with Joseph, but compared to other companies it's definetely overvalued right now. Netflix will have a hard battle against other streaming companies in the next few years. It may be in the lead now, but that doesn't justify this PE ratio. It just doesn't have enough growth potential right now. Instead I bought Disney since I believe its a great value play and investors are a bit confused to be honest.
My goal is to really never sell…. unless there’s an obvious problem in the business
Would love if you could go over what you buy and on the rare ocations what gou sell in your videos as a recap. I would love to track your portfolio as youre smarter than me in this line of field but I cant do that if you dont show your buys and sells up to date :( other than that long time subscriber, I never miss a video.
Hi Joesph!
I have been holding 4 META options Jan 2024 245 call for almost a year now. I have made some 200% profit but still have not sold any yet. I am afraid I would miss out on some more potential gains.
I was wondering if you could shed some light on how to decide on when to close out on those calls.
What would you have done? Would you sell 1 or 2 out of 4 and hold 2 for couple of months or close out on all 4 of them as AI boom could be fading away now?
I always take cost and lock in profit. Let the rest ride and dump as soon as it drops below 100% then don't look at the price anymore and move on.
I like how you analyzed the moat. Normally I forget to look at it and stick to the fundamental/technical analysis. Learned a lot from this!
I really want to use Qualtrim but I live out of the US, does the website have info on other coutry's stocks?
Please do another video recommending books for beginners. Love the vids BTW!
Thank you for your wise words Joseph.
I always look forward to seeing your videos because of the ammount of facts present in them.
@Joseph Carlson. How do you determine the exit strategy? I'm down 40% on DIS. Difficult decisions to make. Been with you since the beginning, love your channels and content!
DCA get to 100 shares and start selling CC until it recover, or you come out with your$$ back
Did Joseph cut his hair on the sides? It looks less flair-y
He never trims his hair until it becomes overvalued on either side
Excellent points
MAX puts out some damn good series though
Hi Joseph, many of the things you said when you created this excellent video are turning out to be proved correct over time, like your sagacious decision to hang onto NFLX. And DIS is still in the red even as of 1/10/24.
Bro you are the guy.
Great vid as always. Much love from Belgium !
When a company goes woke, get out and stay far away.
Selling is a key thing in investing but selling too often can be a big mistake.
Never.
THNX,
What about BAC?
I don't think it's fair to judge Disney's FCF performance over the last 3 years. It's been hit by literally a once in a century global pandemic that completely shut down almost all of its revenue streams (parks, media and experiences). It's key to watch it's recovery closely but I don't think it should reflect poorly on the company or it's management, or at least should be taken into consideration when judging
Better buys out there..
Joseph, have looked into the M1 finance savings account that is claiming a 5%APY? Is it legitimate and how does it compare to other high yielding savings account at the moment. Thanks.
Man it's great. I now run all my main finances through m1
In my opinion none of the streaming/media stocks are the place to be. Not even Netflix. It’s a tough business where it’s hard to make money and competition is fierce. Netflix is overvalued. It’s foolish to think they will have good growth to meet their valuation.
To be honest, Joseph is too much of a gut feeling investor. He believed in Disney at $160. Now he does something similar with Netflix. But the truth is, Netflix is priced to perfection. The downside risk is quite big.
What books are on the desk behind you?
Marvel fatigue is not the problem. Bad Marvel movies/shows is the problem. Nearly every movie since endgame has been lackluster at best, and straight bad at worst. The only "good" things that have come out are the last spider-man movie(notably NOT a Disney movie) and the Hawkeye Christmas special. Everything else has been meh or worse.
The same can be said of some of star wars, namely the last two jedi movies, and some of the shows. We shouldn't blame people not watching on them being "tired" of good content, when they're not in fact receiving good content.
Just having a total return in terms of a percentage tells us nothing about how much it has been per year. We need that information to compare company to company. could incorporate that.
I never sell because I’m an index investor. But I do buy bitcoin and ethereum during down turns and sell them during bull runs. I make more doing that in 4 year cycles than I do over 10 years buying index.
lol k
I buy stonks low and sell high wow incredible
@@MyThefirstone Grats. I don’t buy or sell individual stocks. Glad it’s working out for you n
30-40% gain jumps…. I sell! A 30-40% increase in a year is great!
I dont like watching ads every 2 minutes, thanks google
Are we talking about timing the market here? NVDA executives sold stocks a few months ago when it was at $200s and $300s, look at where NVDA is now?
Long NFLX, short DIS?!
$Odfl thoughts?
Good info.
I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.
Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?
with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.
That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.
The ne thing I think you overlooked in Disney is their Brand. They are no longer seen as a kids fairytale. The photos of the men dressed as princess in the “ Princess makeover” did not help. The visual solidified those who were concerned about going with kids . Disney is the first BUD- like it on not .
Would you think same if you where 164% up with Netflix as I?🤔
Netflix content sucks, I respect the love and effort you put into investing into that company but you're just hyping for one year of positive cash flow, my bet is streaming will be as airlines, a service that many people still use but that is overcrowded and will be very unprofitable
Joseph - What’s your opinion on Nike stock that you own.
Buffett is not talking up a stock he's still buying. I think you're definitely right about Netflix, it's the clear winner, but you're wrong about PARA. Give it 1-2 years and watch how much cash it's throwing off. Paramount executives selling the company for half of book value would be criminal.
Might be dumb, but I sold my Netflix today in my taxable account made 145% long term gain. Want to repurchase in my IRA at some point if it drops. Probably made a bad decision selling though lol.
You missed mentioning the 5 year returns on Netflix when comparing other media companies. Netflix returned 9% vs 50%+ for S&P. Granted you are bullish on the future of netflix, but its fair to call this out when you put up the 5 year charts for other competitors.
First all day! LFG joe we need more rating videos
Ever think your videos would reach some farmer driving around on a tractor in Kansas?
I have a new ranking video coming up. And I think it will be a really fun one.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours nice I can’t wait! I hope you rate DG and ULTA
Why are all the writers on strike?
DIS classic case of bad management.
Paramount has the best library, they aren't a difficult buy or deal for a very wealthy company. Their content is the absolute best, considering they own the thousands of classics that will be watched for decades to come.
The ____ Carlson show talks about new media vs old media...
It sounds like self-justification of someone whose portfolio only breaks even when the big tech soar, not as someone who knows when to buy or when to sell.
Recap
Disney is undervalued compared to nflx. Got it.
I agree that Netflix is the best in space but Netflix is only up 20% over the past 5 years. And that’s after a huge run up.
Once you sell a company, you don't say if you lost anything or how much it was. It's just gone like it never was. Like peloton. without that information. There's no way you can figure out total return from the portfolio. Also, you seem to be adding money every month. Time to hire an auditor.
Another reason I sell is to rebalance my entire portfolio.
I feel with Disney it’s not the Assets or the IP that’s the problem , it’s extremely poor management. It’s like when warren buffets said “i like good companies that even a idiot can run because one day one will” ….that’s Disneys boat right now. Disney with good management as a company is well beyond streaming, it’s not a steaming company , it has a streaming segment. I think of other future profit drivers like the rise of digital merchandise and how much cap ex they will save & margin expansion. Especially with these VR & AR integrations. Digital commerce market is set to grow to over 9 trillion by 2027, but we will see haha
I agree that Disney has a lot of unused potential. They could easily be a decent profitable company. But the problem is that they have already peaked. The few new chances they get, will be evened out by declining core business.
@@PaintrainX that makes no sense , what do you mean peaked lol , peaked where ?
@@DoctorDoom69 theme parks are stretched, travel is past its peak, box office is declining, TV channels are yesterday's news. It's very difficult to find new sources of growth/profitability. People also tend to forget the stock ran up hard over the last decade. Despite the drop, it's not cheap at all.
@@PaintrainX peak relative to what ??? People are always going to travel in the future , tv channels will just cross platforms , box office is declining for now. You are taking like everything is coming to a never ending halt which isn’t true. You shouldn’t expect to get great companies cheap. With good companies fair is cheap.
@@DoctorDoom69 I'm not saying they will go out of business. But it doesn't take Einstein to see how they're past their prime. People have so many options nowadays. The Disney brand is not what it used to be, especially not from a business perspective. Even Buffett acknowledged how those legacy companies are struggling and it might not be the best idea to pick stocks based on what they used to be.
I never sell, I sell only when fundamentals change
So you do sell !
If there can be a reason to buy, there can be a reason to sell. Totally agree forever it the best holding period but there are legit reasons to sell sometimes! Never just hold the bag to protect your ego lol!
Paramount losing their ass on Yellowstone,...
Watching this video after the revelation of Google's newest AI demo, Gemini.... Not quite gigantic news to cause great concern right now but hopefully Google becomes more transparent in the promotion of their AI development products...
You've spent over half the video time not explaining WHEN you sell your stocks.
🙏
Netflix isn‘t diversified. Never a buy for me.
You’re saying Netflix is winning but I think you’re overlooking Tesla.
Tesla is winning in a similar fashion with the charging station war by having every auto maker concede to Teslas charger
Great video 👏
I never miss your vedio. I am scared to sell
Just one more thing, I don't know what your age is. You need this information A sixty five year old person is going to be doing a completely different thing than a twenty five year old person. I understand you're not telling anybody to anything. But to do what you do, it seems that you need to incorporate a few more things as things get complicated. Just my ideas for you.
nice
How could you sell Disney? You kept telling us, week after week, about the Disney+ growth numbers and how the theme park and theatrical film economics don't mean anything anymore what with Nu Media and streaming taking over.
Hi Joseph! Question, if you have 1 million dollars and you can only buy 5 stocks as a condition of getting the money, which 5 stocks will you buy? Just asking for a friend 😅
4runnergirl190
Just asking for a friend ?
I bet its really your brothers, girlfriends, aunties cousin.
You cant fool all the people all the time
@andypicken7848 well it's actually my brother's girlfriend's auntie's cousin's hair dresser
@@kurniawanms2literally gave him the risky portfolio
1m just buy S&P
Why not just split your portfolio between SPY and QQQ to save time and energy?
Because investing is fun
One reason is that I really do enjoy doing analysis on stocks and the process of it, I think it's something I'll want to do even if I was retired. Another reason Is I think I can beat the Indexes. QQQ for example holds a lot of companies I think are of very high valuation (NVDA for example), that I would not hold if I were to pick my own portfolio. We'll see how it works out.
If I did not enjoy analysis I would for sure just index and spend my time doing something I do enjoy.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Love your honest videos and wish you success and many more subs!
netflix's content is garbage. you are doing your viewers a favor to say Paramount is a good investment right now because the risk/reward is there and the price has come down to a great valuation. Either way, Netflix has a great stock, but a horrible and quickly expiring content library. They're looking to Jake Paul for new content.. that says it all. Thanks for the video Joseph.
Solid video
okay after this video, I am now buying Disney..
I'm keeping tabs on Disney. Agree they have done badly in the last couple of years, but it is still Disney. They have really strong IPs and their theme parks are doing really well. Obviously streaming wise, netflix has won. But the parks, I don't know how strong the other competitors are to overtake Disney on that front. Disney is on my watchlist for the time being.
Keep in mind that I sold Disney at $115. I had to wait around for a while to get a half-decent exit point to the stock. I'm *not* predicting that the stock won't go higher from here. My sell criteria is that I think the moat is getting weaker and the company is simply becoming less predictable. So I would rather try to look for a decent exit point and focus on companies I think are more predictable. I would not be shocked if Disney went for a good run end of this year or next.
While DIS IP value may have eroded a little the real catalyst for their pain (just like other legacy media) was getting into streaming! To be fair, they saw NFLX doing well with a small but growing vault of original IP and correctly thought that they could leverage their (DIS) amazing IP vault it would be a good growth story. Streaming also allowed for revenue generation during the pandemic with parks and theaters were closed. However, they underestimated the costs and overestimated the stickiness of Disney+. Agree, better to wait for a more gnarly wave to get into DIS but it may take years.
Disney is getting crushed because of their political nonsense
GO WOKE? GO BROKE!
I have been holding Disney for a while now and its at 88 while i bought it at about 102 dollars per share is it a sell for me or do i hold?
Sell!
Sell. Disney is woke!
DCA get to 100 shares start selling CC until your $$$ is back to break even, and than decide to sell
@@sulaymanbarrow7369 ??? what does this mean im sorry lol
I got "Marvel fatigue" just from the ads and announcements. I honestly don't know why they didn't spread this out..
A question I had is… does the valuation ever become a fundamental change in the business? The easy answer is no, but if the expectations require perfection on all fronts and weakness from all competitors then how is that not fundamental? (This a rhetorical question and not related to Joesph’s holdings)
Excellent video. I'm impressed. I see you as becoming a legendary investor, similar to some of the famous investors you profile. You generally present original and well-thought-out analyses. It's fascinating to see you grow and mature over the years. Well done.
I set him as the investor I would want to be!
Yes I agree, Joseph is a quality investor. He does not fomo, chase popularity. His picks go through rigiours process
Guys… my friend(totally not me) shares his password and nothing has happened. It ain’t gonna create more subscribers
Dis destroyed star wars with stupidity. For that matter almost everything coimg out of Hollywood is crap. Unless they return to quality output they are all doomed. Love your quality show joseph!
Federicoooooo !!!!! 🎉
tldr: he is not selling
Never got the notification on this video... YT shenanigans.
That's really weird. I have been told by multiple people that the notification bell is not working.
Something to consider is following the "Joseph Carlson Show" on podcast, I post most episodes there as well and it also acts as a notification on new episode release.
Same here
If you buy indices, you don’t need to worry about when to sell.
Kinda do.. unless they pay Dividends
@@Sam-ue4rv if you need the cash flow, then sell same time every month keeping your allocation constant.
Netflix's gross profit margin has plateaued around 40% over the past 4 years. The average profit margin over that same period is 13%.
If you fix that, a terminal multiple fo 20 and a 10% discount rate, you need 10 years of 20% revenue growth in order to justify a valuation of 190b, something that, so far, they have only shown to be able to accomplish when the subscriber base was growing fast.
Disney's problem is that the high-margin linear netowrk business is being replaced by an immature and still unprofitable streaming business: the question is where will that margin stabilize.
Disney Parks: 28.7b revenue and 7.9b operating income as of FY22.
Excluding unallocated expenses, interest and taxes (in proportion to the segment revenue) we are down to 5.5b profit (20%).
Assuming 5% revenue growth, 20% profit margin, 25% dividend distribution and terminal multiple of 20, discounting at 10% you get $44.
Disney Media: 55b revenue growing at a 8.5% CAGR over the past 5 years.
Operating margin used to be around 30% pre-streaming and is now down to 8% as of FY22.
Assume 5% revenue growth going forward, same terminal multiple of 20 and same 25% dividend distribution.
Here the big question is what streaming margin they will be able to achieve over the next decade:
5%: $21 Media valuation; $65 total.
7.5%: $31 Media valuation; $75 total.
10%: $41 Media valuation; $85 total.
12.5% (Netflix margin): $51 Media valuation; $95 total.
If you were a pre-streaming value-oriented Disney investor, you either sold when they announced the streaming venture or you decided to wait and see, and then sold during the streaming euphoria.
Disney stock price is where it belongs right now. Netflix's was for a short while and is now disconnected from reality again.
so much crap lately on netflix
I still think google is mismanaged
Joseph, I would appreciate a similar video on when to buy/sell ETFs.
Seriously?
@@operationcenterbravo I'm sorry I understand you must be challenged; let me simplify.... me want help from finance guy to give idea for big dollar.
@@BenJune09 Me sir Jaja Binks
disney has gone woke and that is why they are suffering
Grow up
Netflix is the only one built for this market from the start, they new how to pivot.
Disney has way way to many moving parts to the business. To much to go wrong
General Electric has way too many moving parts to the business. Too much to go wrong…. Oh wait
@@SpartanHoplite360 - mainly a turbine engine company - and yes they have had HUGE financial issues.
@@nickyRavioliTurbine business is a bad industry now. It's basically betting on powering with gas when we know solar + batteries will win. CAT also has a struggling turbine business.
12:29 I bought your dip once dividends come back it’s going to be a strong hold. I give it 4 to 5 years the pandemic babies will make it boom. The 90’s kids are currently sharing nostalgic memories with their little ones.
The question is when will the dividend return? I’m down pretty big on it and thinking it would be better to take the loss and collect dividends elsewhere instead of hoping for it to return and then waiting some more for appreciation in share price.
@@rosejackson3849 They are aiming to distribute a dividend by the end of calendar year 2023 but who knows how that out come may go. Personally me I can’t offer you the financial advice not fully knowing your situation but I did sell all my shares at the beginning of December 2020 only recently I been buying back in since October of 2022 I’m slowly riding this one back in. Hopefully I hold 240 shares again before November.
My grandma has hold her stocks for almost 60 years, 30x her investment and did not check it until she was 90y old, 1k investment into a lumber company, she gets paid over 2k/quarter now. She still don't think its time to sell.
By your logic a coffee can investor cannot be a great investor.