this guy thinks authoritarian regimes are better for the market. but he's right about the bubble. Hopefully this won't be a Herbert Hoover admin. Precious metals, electricity, cybersecurity
As the inimitable Warren Buffet once said, "when others are greedy be fearful" Many are wondering why Buffet is sitting on so much cash. I think the answer is quite obvious!
No UA-cam in 1933, but Germans said the same thing about Hitler. Analyzing this from a rational perspective as in this video does not account for history of fascism and authoritarian leaders not giving a damn about the economy... evidence repeats. itself over the centuries.
I am Latina and in our community we see a real divide between the educated voting for Harris and the poor saying DonOLD will lower prices, with no idea at all about tariffs and his immigration policy.
It's certainly an election that highlighted the depth of willful ignorance in the American electorate. Pissed with Woke Left over-reach, & determinedly ignorant of what the MAGA Mob plan to do, a surprising percentage of latinos, women & blacks either didn't bother to vote, or actually voted for Trump & the GOP. I think Sam Harris is correct in calling this the deciding issue for most people. People seem to have understood that Trump threatens to do anti-democratic illegal & violent things to other people, but there's no danger to THEM. And they don't appear to have cared to know more. America will truly get the government it deserves. This is stereotypical Since Ancient Greece we've noted the tendency of democracies to become increasingly dominated by oligarchs - the 1% - who seek ever-greater political influence, and in doing so, discredit democratic government. Check. What follows is a predictable rise of a populist authoritarian leader who overthrows established government & becomes a dictator. From that point on there's ever-increasing authoritarianism & instability as a succession of authoritarian dictator wanna-be's vie for the job, and use the military to grab power. Society becomes ever more violent & unstable; government becomes ever more corrupt & unstable, existing to fund or reward the rising oligarchs, not serve the public. This may well have been America's last election If Trump &/or the MAGA Mob hand back power & permit another free election at the end of Trump's term, the country will be bucking the historical trend. Could happen; let's hope so. I suspect it'd be wrong to make assumptions about it one way or the other.
The stock market and economy at large over the last 15 years was a result of 8+ trillion dollars in FED Quantitative Easing. I find it highly and mathematically unlikely the FED will do that again. When QE was launched en masse back in 2008 inflation was not a problem. There was actually some minor deflation occurring at the time. If the FED were to restart QE again under current conditions, and drive real yields on bonds deeply negative once again, the FED will quickly find itself the exclusive buyer of all government bonds. The Federal deficit is around 2T a year but the Federal government is rolling over maturing debt meaning there are 7+ trillion dollars worth of UST sales per year. There is zero way the FED can print and buy 7 trillion dollars worth of government debt every year without causing double digit inflation.... ... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 210k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay's, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
One thing I know for certain is crypto is here to stay, the only thing that leaves is the people who don't manage their risk. Manage that, or the market will manage it for you. With the right strategies you will survive.
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today…..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends.. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
Francine Duguay understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
what does your gut think?? my gut tells me something bad is going to happen, I am 63 I would rather miss out on a boom than experience a crash. I have been selling my stocks but will keep a few. I am happy with 4.4% for 10 year note. I have a very good pension, 0 debt. I want to live the rest of my life stress free. I have a low risk tolerance. I only got into the market during the covid downturn. I didnt time it very well but still made money. what I have learned is that no one knows what will happen. I also learned that anything could happen any day. a strike , a war, the govn giving us bad info, I am getting off this train, good luck.
My feelings exactly. 1.5 million portfolio with 70% tbills, 20 gold, and 10 cash. My home is paid off, no other bills, and two pensions coming in monthly besides my social security. I don’t see the need to take any greedy chances and risk my existing living standard
I moved out of the country in 2021, (Thailand) I rent my house for 2500 a month. I am thinking about returning to USA when I am 65 and selling, then come back here for good. I hope the trumpster will reduce capital gains for me. hahaha. I am going to start buying gold here in Thailand. Very popular here, gold shops everywhere you look.
I went to the US as an asian woman in 1997 and did not know about life in the US or investing at all. When I got a job as an engineer i thought i made it already. I travelled aboard and lived large while accumulated a lot of debt. One day i realized my paychecks were so low compared to my American co-workers and i was stuck due to my visa status. I cut all my credit cards and started saving. I first invested with my $25k. I was self-taught but still so naive about investment. In 2008, almost 70% of my portfolio got wiped out. I was still clueless about subprime, banking, crisis, inflation, recession. At that time, i was living with a roommate. It got to the point that i got home and stepped on a used condom. I said to myself that is it. No more roommate. I cleaned out my portfolio which was not much and ready to buy my first home. I started shopping around and realized that to me, houses in the US were ugly compared to houses in my home country. Finally, i found one that i did like the look of it. Turned out it was foreclosure. I did not know the challenge of fixing it up. I did not know it was in a prime location with a good school district, park, shopping mall. I bought it just because it was the only one out of 30 that i liked. The renovation process was painful. Looking back it was worth it. Since then i became older and wiser. I planned my early retirement. I monitored the housing price and sold it in 2022. After finishing the renovation, i started to invest again. My portfolio is sitting around 1.5m and i am currently retire at 52 living in Thailand spending the money from selling the house. I was diagnosed with breast cancer last June and just finished my treatment. It was a very early stage so i was thankful for that but the medical bills were huge. I just moved back and have not had time to take care of the med insurance. They put me on a 7 yr treatment plan. One shot every 3 mos and one pill a day will add up. I am ok financially. I bought NVDA few years ago so my %return in 2024 is very satisfied. I do Not want to go through 70% wiped out on my portfolio again. I just sold more than half of my portfolio and will sit back and see how it plan out. When i first diagnosed, i came to realize what am i gonna do with the money. I have no kids and no family and i might not have a chance to enjoy it. What a waste.
@@backyardbluejay2268 when you started the comment “I went to America as an Asian woman” I thought you were going to say you left as a white man :) it’s America so you know…
Without the inflation act during Covid where over a million Americans died, USA would have collapsed economically and the contagion world-wide would have been catastrophic. Biden got us through
Yup! Trump and his anti science meesage spread the virus around even more. The US leads the world in Covid deaths. Biden kept people from losing their housing and kept food on the table. If Trump follows through on his tariff plans, they're gonna wishing for Biden.
The idea that Hillary Clinton went around calling all Trump supporters deplorable is false. She was calling open racists and KKK members who supported Trump deplorable. This is clear most of the times she said the term. At least one time she said it without specifying and people jumped to the conclusion that she was referring to all Trump supporters without doing their due diligence to get to what she was trying to say, which you can see by looking at her general use of the term.
50% of economists predict a crash and 50% predict that the market will go up. The reality is nobody really knows. My friend’s been holding cash for 2 years and lost out on 40% gains!
The 4 highest P/E ratios were soon followed by the 4 worst economies; 1929, 1972, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 financial crash. Followed by the Great Depression, great recession '73-74, tech bubble burst, and the 2008 financial melt-down.
@@Xdami87 I look at long term (20-40 years) charts. All indicating economy is making a turn for the worse. Do take a look at US 2s-10s yield curve, BLS' U6 unemployment, Sahm rule recession indicator, BLS' median wage growth, delinquency rate on credit card loans, full time vs part time employment, restaurant performance index and New York Fed's recession probability tool. The current GDP numbers have been goosed up by government employment/spending that will be cut by Trump. Companies have pulled forward purchases for the fear of coming Trump tariffs. Inflation is ticking up and Powell is thinking twice before cutting rates further.
Trump has inherited an equities market with valuations higher than in October 1929. All time high P/E ratios. This will not end well. Perhaps appropriate since he is the first President with negative job creation since Hoover. See free monthly comments by John Hussman at his web site for more information.
Government is just broken and so are the people. Bottom line, Oligarchs rule. It sounds like this guy is just about markets and not the people. People are being gouged in every direction. Taxes, insurance, cost of home ownership, food, healthcare. The market has been overrated for a long time with those ridiculous p/e ratios, so overvalued. I do realize he is about markets, but everything else is falling apart from oligarch control and their Uber profits. It is crashing. Homeless are everywhere now.
Even if there's a market correction the growth medium-long term will compensate. The trouble with the bonds is that if the Republicans inflate the dollar the bond will be effectively a 0-growth investment, but the stock market will still grow because increased money supply shouldn't lower the dollar-value of a stock, but rather raise it (nominally), simply because there is more cash out there. If you have a world of 100 dollars, and there are 10 stocks, and you introduce 20 new dollars to that world, the reality is that, because the stocks represent the productive economy, the stock almost automatically increases nominal value by 20%. Stocks represent the _actual_ economy - the substance of the economy is owned by the stock owners. Bonds are just currency obligations. At least this is my low-value general theory/perception, and of course it's grossly oversimplified since stock bubbles do occur. As long as you keep buying stocks over time - through the ups and the downs - and leave them in the market they should grow though and you should beat any crashes. The mistake is to try to guess the market because history shows virtually nobody can beat it except by chance. The only fund I'm aware of - and I mean the only one - that has done that is Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund and that isn't open to the public. If you have a life expectancy of 10-20 years or something maybe owning bonds and sticking to a budget is a good idea but generally beyond that one would be missing out on tremendous growth opportunities.
I feel frustrated watching my portfolio underperform as I often jump in and out of stocks. Most of my holdings are in cash of about 300 grand now. How do I stay invested and think long-term to help me ride out the market’s ups and downs?
Follow the S&P 500 by investing in ETFs like VOO, SPY, and SCHD. Dollar-cost averaging into these ETFs will likely outperform most investors in this bull run.
Such uncertainties are the reasons I don’t base my judgement on a ''heresay'' 2020 had me holding trash stocks, but thankfully revamp my portfolio through the aid of a pro before seeing significant gains. To date, I've scaled up nearly 320% ROI. it's been 4 years and counting. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and we're not far.
@@PauleAraiza Could you share how I might get in touch with your advisr? I’d love to learn more about their approach and see if they can help me achieve similar results.
Sure i can! Jennifer Leigh Hickman is the T.X- based advisor I use and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
I find no evidence that Trump will not do what he said he would do with the tariffs and deportations. If the markets have priced this in, we may be in for a rude awakening.
There is no way Trump can impose those 60% Tariffs on all Chinese product. Firstly, it would cause inflation to get worse and secondly, China would not just sit there and allow it but rather would respond with its own economic punishment. Right now the interest paid on Debt to China funds their military. As for deportation, if that were to happen on large scale it would remove cheap labor and thus push inflation higher. US would be looking at inflation over 15% if Trump actually did tariffs and mass exportations. What really will happen is few thousand illegal immigrants with criminal history get deported and few selected items from China get tariffed at about 25%. Time will tell and we will know after his 1st year if he was all talk.
As an international investor, I only invest in well-regulated markets in functioning, non-corrupt, non oligarchy democracies. I'm very grateful that this final pre-Trump bump has allowed me to repatriate my money. The London banks who control the world's offshore tax haven funds will also be trying to get their money out of SPY in the next few weeks, and into the UK and Swiss markets. The problem for them is that it's trillions, but its their own fault for not diverifying or hedging.
"I only invest in democracies" is the silliest thing I've heard all year. Democracy's only interest in growth and business is to cut down the tall poppy.
In a highly inequitable economy, a government that intends to reward capital even more and labor even less is going to disillusion many of those who voted it in against their own interests.
If you were a foreign investor, would you put your money in a country where the leader has the emotional maturity of a 12 yr. old, and the markets are priced two standard deviations beyond the norm? Not me.
Anyone who says that something is 100% certain is arrogant! Or would he say that the equity bubble in Venezuela is going to burst? Time to throw your 2008 playbook away and dust off the Weimar Republic or Venezuela playbooks. Maybe the purchasing power of fiat currencies is what's continuing to burst and as a result nominal prices never retreat.
I keep hearing that the S&P is in dangerous territory though no serious commentator is actually calling it a bubble. As soon as you hear anyone saying that, you should switch them off. It's BS. It is historically high, which increases risk, but I'm looking at my tech stocks and none of them are any higher on PE or PEG basis than they were throughout 2023. Some are actually lower than they were last year.
@@antonystringfellow5152 Okay, in simple terms markets are in a bubble, they are hugely overpriced. However, people will look back longingly when they could buy and get rich. As the market falls, they will stay exposed because a ten percent falls be a buying opportunity. They'll do this most of the way down to who knows, sp500 1800 and finally give up near the bottom. Then I'll buy.
Thank you to Anthony Scaramucci & David Rosenberg, for this fascinating interview/conversation from beginning to end 🇫🇷🇺🇸 ( which I shared on, X. On Linkedin & on Thread)
Watch the rats leaving their finance and economics positions. Waiting for the 2007 crash, it was being extended as rats started leaving. I knew it would be just weeks when good ol’ Larry Summers decided he had done all he could do in government as Presidental Economic Advisor in June 2008, and he went to run Harvard. After being in there since Reagan came into office.🙄The other Big Rat Bernanke left too. I knew the crash of the fraud would be imminent. Turned out to be 10 weeks.📉
Politics is life or death in the US. Women have died because they cannot access health care since Roe overturned, and they do not have autonomy over their bodies. But who would notice or care?
I'm so lost at these people who voted for Trump they truly believe he's only going to do the policies that they want. And it's not going to do the policies he said he was going to do Do these people are not understand he has the Senate the house the supreme Court he can do anything he wants And we all know the man is not that bright
Even if he's not that bright, which is highly debatable, he is surrounding himself with bright people, many of whom are taking cabinet positions. It really doesn't matter whether he does what he says he would, or something completely different, so long as he does what is in the best interest of the country as a whole. People are not going to like the changes, both those for and against him, but the status quo we have now is far worse than what is to come.
@@user-lq6wc3ci3q Hegseth? Ivy League graduate of both Princeton _and_ Harvard (Kennedy School of Government), author, combat veteran, worked for a major financial firm, and yes, "slumming" for Fox.
So if I understand this correctly, People are not worried because they believe that the unpredictable man will be predictable? How can this make sense?
is this guy a bookstore? Plus he was soooo negative after 2009,,,,he said it would crash further....he got relesed for that poor call...think he was at a Canadian firm then.
It may finally wake the populace up to the craziness of Trump and his followers if there is a financial crash, accompanied by soaring unemployment and inflation.
I’m ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs): 40-50%; rising markets (like VWO): 10-15%; dividend stocks: 10-20%; growth stocks/small-caps: 10-20%; and REITs: 5-10% When you first start out, always partner with someone who is educated about the financial market to prevent getting burned.
DCA DCA" is the sloppy term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388 this year.
She goes by ''Amber Michelle Smith'' a renowned figure in the financial industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
I just checked her website, and I’m even more impressed! The range of financial strategies and resources she offers is amazing. I can see why so many people trust her with their investments-looking forward to working together!
Trump's new tariff plan might ignite a trade war, prompting me to reevaluate my $400K investment portfolio to minimize potential losses. I’m looking for effective strategies to navigate this uncertainty.
A long-term approach can definitely help with navigating market volatility. Set Clear Goals, Focus on Quality Investments,Stay Patient and Avoid Emotional Reactions, and Work with a Financial Advisor
After selling at a loss during the dip, I was hesitant to reinvest my $600K. My financial advisor created a long-term strategy, focusing on diversification and dollar-cost averaging. In just 18 months, my portfolio grew to $850K. Their guidance has been invaluable in helping me stay steady and think long-term through market changes.
That's amazing! Could you share how I might get in touch with your advisor? I’d love to learn more about their approach and see if they can help me achieve similar results.
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
@@Iwatchcnn You are literally contradicting yourself: 'it's hard to time the market' and then saying 'wait for the crash and buy'. You can;t say those 2 things at the same time 🙂 Sure, you can buy an index fund and DCA into it but I'd encourage you to read the history of stock markets and how our financial system works. You'll be amazed and shocked by what you learn. Wishing you the best Here's my 2 cents of advice if you really want to make it: DCA into Bitcoin, buy more when it dips next cycle and you'll do very well. Good luck
@@simrans3675 No one can specifically time it, but there is a reason Buffet is sitting on piles of cash. I will take my gains now, thank you and buy them back for 50% less
The incompetent appointments are by design. Remember the goal is the deconstruction of the administrative state. That's not a wild claim or a conspiracy theory. It's been stated by many of the principles of the maga movement and it's also stated clearly in project 2025. By putting incompetent people in place, Trump will totally control each of those departments. I'm sure we'll all be very pleased with the results
It's only good when the government hands out money to billionaires. It's always bad when the government helps working people. This is what people on both sides are against
P.S. if this guy thinks the House is gonna do anything other than rubber stamp whatever Donald Trump puts in front of them, he is (again) an idiot or just very very out of touch.
Regarding gold and gold miners (see comment at 36:30), while gold has seen good upside, the same can not be said of the gold miners. Gold miners have done poorly compared to gold in this recent gold rally. Regarding inflation, no one talks about how inflation was a global phenomenon. Inflation did not just occur in the US but in hundreds of countries around the world. In the UK the conservative government was blamed for high inflation while in Canada the Liberal government was to blame. You can multiply this by the number of countries that experienced inflation post Covid and come up with over 100 government leaders that were blamed for high inflation in their respective countries. So the question is, were all these various governments or their leaders responsible for the high inflation that was experienced globally?
A land mine explosion couldn’t happen to a more deserving guy, however, with his, and his “administration’s” incompetence, I fear for our long term future.
I like David Rosenberg but his bias towards Trump and his policies, clearly evident in this video, cancel his message and raise questions about his judgement. Look at Allan Lichtman who was certain Trump would lose, even in the face of obvious polls during the final days leading up to the US Presidential Elections that had turned decidedly against Harris. My message to David is don't allow personal prejudice to infect your outlook like it does to so many Liberals and socialists - its a bad look. We don't care that you don't like Trump, just stick to the topic.
For real, Obama didn't invite Republicans into White House. Did Trump do that? "The divide started int he 90s", did Trump do anything to reduce it, any messaging around that? "The checks created inflation", yeah, and all the money given to Wall Street, including the day it tanked at the beginning of COVID, didn't? What a joke
Even the Republican Campaign thought Trump was going to lose up to the morning of the election. As did the Harris Campaign. Pollsters can't predict turnout well and she lost on turnout only.
@@cloudpoint0 you're either delusional, uninformed or lying - I suspect the latter. In 2016 I think no one expected Trump to win because all the polls said he would lose in a landslide, but not this time around.
Yield curve uninverted in September this year, Sahm rule in July, those are closer to coincident indicators… agree there were some that have been very early to this call, and it’s since it’s been a fantastic time to be in markets. Both can, and usually have been, true.
Of course he is unhappy. He hates Trump. As far as small business goes. A small or large business isn't successful because of who the president is. I've never heard or seen any successful business owner ever give all credit to who sits in the oval office. Usually with success, the business owner wants all the credit. But in bad times, looks to find blame. I know its easy to play victim. But is it possible that a struggling business, simply had a bad business model?
Trump will do exactly what he said he will do. I believe it's too late to fix the mess though. Mortgage defaults are at 2.25% auto loan defaults are at 4.5%, and credit card default/charge off is it at 7.8% .The worst part is, the bank cant clear these assets from their books without taking huge losses due to the upside down auto loans. This doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.
Territorial concessions being forced on Ukraine would be horrible. IT would be allowing Russia to be rewarded for the terrorism, It would be allowing Russia to rebuild their military after that reward... they would have to live knowing that they will just come for more.
Where do market timers like me stand, I have 300k in money market funds with Fidelity and scared to invest in anything, stocks and gold are volatile alike and bonds are a no go area for me? What is the best course of action?
How does one get a financial planner who isn’t just looking to make a buck? (upfront fees and whatnot) my spouse and I are in the market for guidance at this point
One thing I have to disagree with was a family citizen pittance that was equal to or less than a tax refund caused the inflation BS. It was what the FED did in its buying spree and PPI. Then the FED had to unwind its books, which made business borrowing for everything they do like heroin addicts cost them a lot more, so they passed that on in spades. Everything not lean and mean squeezing shareholders and C-Suite going forward, should be out of business permanently. Because it is going to get very ugly for business, that I agree with 100%.
@@quixomega More importantly they support his ideas. Trump doesn't hesitate hiring people who in the past opposed him or even said bad stuff about him. If they are qualified and on board with his agenda they are getting the jobs.
Substantial tariffs = increased inflation. 60% tariff on China imports passed on to consumers in Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Lowes, Target, etc. US producers raise their prices to maximize profits as import prices rise. Substantial tariffs = increased inflation.
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Yes, gold is a great investment and a good bet against the devaluating dollar, been holding some for awhile now, I’m grateful my adviser’s moment by moment changes in the market are lightening quick, cos who know how much losses I would’ve had by now.
My CFA Melissa Terri Swayne , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
For the Trump supporters, name one thing he has ever been successful at? He owns real estate, which is different than actually starting and running a profitable business. Every time he ventured into an actual business, IT FAILED. My worry as a Harris supporter was that we were headed for a downturn, and it would have been blamed on her. Housing prices are as bloated and unrealistic as 2007-8. Inflation is cooling, but consumer confidence is still low, and consumers are carrying lots of debt bloated by past inflation. We are headed for a recession and possibly a deep one. Having an adult in the office, we would have had a soft landing. Now with Trump, his policies will do nothing but deepen and worsen what is inevitable.
He'll be right just like Harry Dent will be right. They're ponzi's based on absolutely zero fundamentals with real P/E ratios in the hundreds when in the past they were around 15. If you go back far enough in time corporate accounting was honest unlike today.
NOTE: @@new.Key.1941 is unaware of any money laundering prosecutions in Mexico or the US. Fear not, those will cease with AG Gaetz, at least in the US.
Yes, he keeps talking about how hard it is for Congress to pass legislation, but trump can do his 2 biggest inflationary policies without Congress: deportations and tariffs.
Trump loves tariffs and this time he’s not surrounded by sane people who will hold him back. The people he’s put in charge of immigration are gung ho on mass deportations.
Correction, David. The political polarization got serious during the Vietnam War and has continued since then. The parties were much better at putting country first before that.
There are only two ways of getting out of debt and inflation predicaments, it's either a decade long austerity/high taxes/sluggish economy, or growing economy much faster than 2%. I think it's clear Trump's team will drive the latter.
Kinda rude. My guess is you are a Trump supporter. Well, we will see just how long you like him after you lose your shirt, your freedoms, and your country. AND WE LOVE THE MOOCH!!
@@dallasstudent1605 You pay a huge price for going against Trump and MAGA. And you get huge financial benefits for cosying up to Trump. If you have access to Trump, he'll give you the legislation you want. Even if it contradicts MAGA ideology. He's already packing the government with neo-cons.
If inflation keeps tracking 1970s inflation like it has been inflation is about to go much higher. Unlike the 70s the debt is substantially higher so if interest rates went to over 20 per cent it would cause a bit of a problem for the Republicans.
Please explain how the US-specific policies and “other things” created inflation globally? And why is this country doing better than any other Western country?
Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at bit.ly/3YKy5rn
Wow, the Mooch is on Wealthion now. It had been a while I guess... re-subbed.
this guy thinks authoritarian regimes are better for the market. but he's right about the bubble. Hopefully this won't be a Herbert Hoover admin. Precious metals, electricity, cybersecurity
As the inimitable Warren Buffet once said, "when others are greedy be fearful" Many are wondering why Buffet is sitting on so much cash. I think the answer is quite obvious!
Berkshire is the only US stock I will still own next week.
This is why Berkshire always comes up smelling of roses when there's a market crash. They sell high, sit on a massive cash pile, and buy low.
@@Homecastlefoundation You got it. Buffet isn't clairvoyant. His super power is patience. Buffet only swings at his pitch!
Agreed!!
I suspect Buffet may be Chinese, considering he always plays the "long" game.
The most common statement on UA-cam: "I don't think Trump is really going to do what he said"
No UA-cam in 1933, but Germans said the same thing about Hitler. Analyzing this from a rational perspective as in this video does not account for history of fascism and authoritarian leaders not giving a damn about the economy... evidence repeats. itself over the centuries.
What? trump won't keep his word, or pay his contractors and lawyers??
It may be a matter of degree. Not a binary all or nothing.
@@tw238 I think you should be careful what you solidify as fact; probably throw most of it in the 'probably false bin'.
If no one believed he’d do the things he said he would, why vote him?
I am Latina and in our community we see a real divide between the educated voting for Harris and the poor saying DonOLD will lower prices, with no idea at all about tariffs and his immigration policy.
It's certainly an election that highlighted the depth of willful ignorance in the American electorate. Pissed with Woke Left over-reach, & determinedly ignorant of what the MAGA Mob plan to do, a surprising percentage of latinos, women & blacks either didn't bother to vote, or actually voted for Trump & the GOP. I think Sam Harris is correct in calling this the deciding issue for most people.
People seem to have understood that Trump threatens to do anti-democratic illegal & violent things to other people, but there's no danger to THEM. And they don't appear to have cared to know more. America will truly get the government it deserves.
This is stereotypical
Since Ancient Greece we've noted the tendency of democracies to become increasingly dominated by oligarchs - the 1% - who seek ever-greater political influence, and in doing so, discredit democratic government. Check. What follows is a predictable rise of a populist authoritarian leader who overthrows established government & becomes a dictator. From that point on there's ever-increasing authoritarianism & instability as a succession of authoritarian dictator wanna-be's vie for the job, and use the military to grab power. Society becomes ever more violent & unstable; government becomes ever more corrupt & unstable, existing to fund or reward the rising oligarchs, not serve the public.
This may well have been America's last election
If Trump &/or the MAGA Mob hand back power & permit another free election at the end of Trump's term, the country will be bucking the historical trend. Could happen; let's hope so. I suspect it'd be wrong to make assumptions about it one way or the other.
@@yalmahond2813 You're a Russian bot.
@@yalmahond2813 American citizens have the right to vote. You're a horrible person.
@@yalmahond2813 You can be a US citizen and Latino/Latina. Or is that over your head?
@@yalmahond2813can a Latina be a US citizen?
The stock market and economy at large over the last 15 years was a result of 8+ trillion dollars in FED Quantitative Easing. I find it highly and mathematically unlikely the FED will do that again. When QE was launched en masse back in 2008 inflation was not a problem. There was actually some minor deflation occurring at the time. If the FED were to restart QE again under current conditions, and drive real yields on bonds deeply negative once again, the FED will quickly find itself the exclusive buyer of all government bonds. The Federal deficit is around 2T a year but the Federal government is rolling over maturing debt meaning there are 7+ trillion dollars worth of UST sales per year. There is zero way the FED can print and buy 7 trillion dollars worth of government debt every year without causing double digit inflation.... ... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 210k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay's, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine duguay program is widely available online..
One thing I know for certain is crypto is here to stay, the only thing that leaves is the people who don't manage their risk. Manage that, or the market will manage it for you. With the right strategies you will survive.
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today…..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends.. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
Francine Duguay understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
what does your gut think?? my gut tells me something bad is going to happen, I am 63 I would rather miss out on a boom than experience a crash. I have been selling my stocks but will keep a few. I am happy with 4.4% for 10 year note. I have a very good pension, 0 debt. I want to live the rest of my life stress free. I have a low risk tolerance. I only got into the market during the covid downturn. I didnt time it very well but still made money. what I have learned is that no one knows what will happen. I also learned that anything could happen any day. a strike , a war, the govn giving us bad info, I am getting off this train, good luck.
My feelings exactly. 1.5 million portfolio with 70% tbills, 20 gold, and 10 cash. My home is paid off, no other bills, and two pensions coming in monthly besides my social security. I don’t see the need to take any greedy chances and risk my existing living standard
I moved out of the country in 2021, (Thailand) I rent my house for 2500 a month. I am thinking about returning to USA when I am 65 and selling, then come back here for good. I hope the trumpster will reduce capital gains for me. hahaha. I am going to start buying gold here in Thailand. Very popular here, gold shops everywhere you look.
I went to the US as an asian woman in 1997 and did not know about life in the US or investing at all. When I got a job as an engineer i thought i made it already. I travelled aboard and lived large while accumulated a lot of debt. One day i realized my paychecks were so low compared to my American co-workers and i was stuck due to my visa status. I cut all my credit cards and started saving. I first invested with my $25k. I was self-taught but still so naive about investment. In 2008, almost 70% of my portfolio got wiped out. I was still clueless about subprime, banking, crisis, inflation, recession. At that time, i was living with a roommate. It got to the point that i got home and stepped on a used condom. I said to myself that is it. No more roommate. I cleaned out my portfolio which was not much and ready to buy my first home. I started shopping around and realized that to me, houses in the US were ugly compared to houses in my home country. Finally, i found one that i did like the look of it. Turned out it was foreclosure. I did not know the challenge of fixing it up. I did not know it was in a prime location with a good school district, park, shopping mall. I bought it just because it was the only one out of 30 that i liked. The renovation process was painful. Looking back it was worth it. Since then i became older and wiser. I planned my early retirement. I monitored the housing price and sold it in 2022. After finishing the renovation, i started to invest again. My portfolio is sitting around 1.5m and i am currently retire at 52 living in Thailand spending the money from selling the house. I was diagnosed with breast cancer last June and just finished my treatment. It was a very early stage so i was thankful for that but the medical bills were huge. I just moved back and have not had time to take care of the med insurance. They put me on a 7 yr treatment plan. One shot every 3 mos and one pill a day will add up. I am ok financially. I bought NVDA few years ago so my %return in 2024 is very satisfied. I do
Not want to go through 70% wiped out on my portfolio again. I just sold more than half of my portfolio and will sit back and see how it plan out. When i first diagnosed, i came to realize what am i gonna do with the money. I have no kids and no family and i might not have a chance to enjoy it. What a waste.
@@backyardbluejay2268 best of luck to you
@@backyardbluejay2268 when you started the comment “I went to America as an Asian woman” I thought you were going to say you left as a white man :) it’s America so you know…
Im shocked this guy thinks Trump will act rationally. I dont think a part of him believes it though given bis little eyeroll. Trump is unpredictable
I kind of wonder if he’s heard of Jan 6th?
@jacquielapierredufresne5468 its hard to tell at first but he is
Trump write checks
Just flash some cash. He'll respond. So in that, he is quite predictable.
He's completely predictable - he will do whatever benefits him personally.
Without the inflation act during Covid where over a million Americans died, USA would have collapsed economically and the contagion world-wide would have been catastrophic. Biden got us through
Yup! Trump and his anti science meesage spread the virus around even more. The US leads the world in Covid deaths. Biden kept people from losing their housing and kept food on the table. If Trump follows through on his tariff plans, they're gonna wishing for Biden.
absolute nonsense. And I'm not a huge fan of Trump.
@@garyportugal8035 Explain the nonsense my economists.
Also created killer inflation.
@@erickanter So the inflation reduction act created inflation in the UK, europe, Australia and Canada also?
The idea that Hillary Clinton went around calling all Trump supporters deplorable is false. She was calling open racists and KKK members who supported Trump deplorable. This is clear most of the times she said the term. At least one time she said it without specifying and people jumped to the conclusion that she was referring to all Trump supporters without doing their due diligence to get to what she was trying to say, which you can see by looking at her general use of the term.
50% of economists predict a crash and 50% predict that the market will go up. The reality is nobody really knows. My friend’s been holding cash for 2 years and lost out on 40% gains!
Ask 2 economists the same question, get 3 completely different answers.
The 4 highest P/E ratios were soon followed by the 4 worst economies; 1929, 1972, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 financial crash. Followed by the Great Depression, great recession '73-74, tech bubble burst, and the 2008 financial melt-down.
You can add one more to the your list very soon.
@@dfc803what makes you so sure?
@@Xdami87 I look at long term (20-40 years) charts. All indicating economy is making a turn for the worse. Do take a look at US 2s-10s yield curve, BLS' U6 unemployment, Sahm rule recession indicator, BLS' median wage growth, delinquency rate on credit card loans, full time vs part time employment, restaurant performance index and New York Fed's recession probability tool. The current GDP numbers have been goosed up by government employment/spending that will be cut by Trump. Companies have pulled forward purchases for the fear of coming Trump tariffs. Inflation is ticking up and Powell is thinking twice before cutting rates further.
Trump has inherited an equities market with valuations higher than in October 1929. All time high P/E ratios. This will not end well. Perhaps appropriate since he is the first President with negative job creation since Hoover. See free monthly comments by John Hussman at his web site for more information.
You forgot “82”
Government is just broken and so are the people. Bottom line, Oligarchs rule. It sounds like this guy is just about markets and not the people. People are being gouged in every direction. Taxes, insurance, cost of home ownership, food, healthcare. The market has been overrated for a long time with those ridiculous p/e ratios, so overvalued. I do realize he is about markets, but everything else is falling apart from oligarch control and their Uber profits. It is crashing. Homeless are everywhere now.
We love capitalism until we don’t love it anymore. We maximise profits whenever they can.
I'm thinking to get into bonds instead. This scenario of wackos running our government does not bode well
Even if there's a market correction the growth medium-long term will compensate. The trouble with the bonds is that if the Republicans inflate the dollar the bond will be effectively a 0-growth investment, but the stock market will still grow because increased money supply shouldn't lower the dollar-value of a stock, but rather raise it (nominally), simply because there is more cash out there. If you have a world of 100 dollars, and there are 10 stocks, and you introduce 20 new dollars to that world, the reality is that, because the stocks represent the productive economy, the stock almost automatically increases nominal value by 20%. Stocks represent the _actual_ economy - the substance of the economy is owned by the stock owners. Bonds are just currency obligations. At least this is my low-value general theory/perception, and of course it's grossly oversimplified since stock bubbles do occur. As long as you keep buying stocks over time - through the ups and the downs - and leave them in the market they should grow though and you should beat any crashes. The mistake is to try to guess the market because history shows virtually nobody can beat it except by chance. The only fund I'm aware of - and I mean the only one - that has done that is Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund and that isn't open to the public. If you have a life expectancy of 10-20 years or something maybe owning bonds and sticking to a budget is a good idea but generally beyond that one would be missing out on tremendous growth opportunities.
Gold might be a good option
I feel frustrated watching my portfolio underperform as I often jump in and out of stocks. Most of my holdings are in cash of about 300 grand now. How do I stay invested and think long-term to help me ride out the market’s ups and downs?
Follow the S&P 500 by investing in ETFs like VOO, SPY, and SCHD. Dollar-cost averaging into these ETFs will likely outperform most investors in this bull run.
Such uncertainties are the reasons I don’t base my judgement on a ''heresay'' 2020 had me holding trash stocks, but thankfully revamp my portfolio through the aid of a pro before seeing significant gains. To date, I've scaled up nearly 320% ROI. it's been 4 years and counting. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and we're not far.
@@PauleAraiza Could you share how I might get in touch with your advisr? I’d love to learn more about their approach and see if they can help me achieve similar results.
Sure i can! Jennifer Leigh Hickman is the T.X- based advisor I use and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Wow!! her track record looks really good from what I found online.i just filled the form and scheduled for a call. Thanks to you.
I find no evidence that Trump will not do what he said he would do with the tariffs and deportations. If the markets have priced this in, we may be in for a rude awakening.
Because it makes no economic sense ?
We have four years of evidence on what he will do.
@@Robert-fx3ngnothing.
No evidence is required.
He does not have the power to do all that he says he's going to do.
There is no way Trump can impose those 60% Tariffs on all Chinese product. Firstly, it would cause inflation to get worse and secondly, China would not just sit there and allow it but rather would respond with its own economic punishment. Right now the interest paid on Debt to China funds their military. As for deportation, if that were to happen on large scale it would remove cheap labor and thus push inflation higher. US would be looking at inflation over 15% if Trump actually did tariffs and mass exportations. What really will happen is few thousand illegal immigrants with criminal history get deported and few selected items from China get tariffed at about 25%. Time will tell and we will know after his 1st year if he was all talk.
As an international investor, I only invest in well-regulated markets in functioning, non-corrupt, non oligarchy democracies.
I'm very grateful that this final pre-Trump bump has allowed me to repatriate my money. The London banks who control the world's offshore tax haven funds will also be trying to get their money out of SPY in the next few weeks, and into the UK and Swiss markets. The problem for them is that it's trillions, but its their own fault for not diverifying or hedging.
"I only invest in democracies" is the silliest thing I've heard all year. Democracy's only interest in growth and business is to cut down the tall poppy.
In a highly inequitable economy, a government that intends to reward capital even more and labor even less is going to disillusion many of those who voted it in against their own interests.
Stupid voters who believed a serial liar! The American voter is dumb!!!
Blah blah blah
The inequality was created by government printing you know...
Sounds about right for the U.S. You can't fix stupid.😊
@@anthonyrussell4888. Happens every time !
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
If you were a foreign investor, would you put your money in a country where the leader has the emotional maturity of a 12 yr. old, and the markets are priced two standard deviations beyond the norm? Not me.
You overestimate his age
Anyone who says that something is 100% certain is arrogant! Or would he say that the equity bubble in Venezuela is going to burst? Time to throw your 2008 playbook away and dust off the Weimar Republic or Venezuela playbooks. Maybe the purchasing power of fiat currencies is what's continuing to burst and as a result nominal prices never retreat.
Before crash everybody says the same . Not a bubble
I've missed out on the hugest stock market rally in history by listening to this guy
cuz you a sheep 🐑
And now you'll miss on giving it all back by listening to him.
@@DavidSutton-xv5sb
Huh?
That makes no sense at all.
I keep hearing that the S&P is in dangerous territory though no serious commentator is actually calling it a bubble. As soon as you hear anyone saying that, you should switch them off. It's BS.
It is historically high, which increases risk, but I'm looking at my tech stocks and none of them are any higher on PE or PEG basis than they were throughout 2023. Some are actually lower than they were last year.
@@antonystringfellow5152 Okay, in simple terms markets are in a bubble, they are hugely overpriced. However, people will look back longingly when they could buy and get rich. As the market falls, they will stay exposed because a ten percent falls be a buying opportunity. They'll do this most of the way down to who knows, sp500 1800 and finally give up near the bottom. Then I'll buy.
yeah, keep underestimating Putin and his relationship with our new fascist leader. Let's see what happens.
Agreed..this guy needs to talk to Bill Browder. He's delusional
Thank you to Anthony Scaramucci & David Rosenberg, for this fascinating interview/conversation from beginning to end 🇫🇷🇺🇸 ( which I shared on, X. On Linkedin & on Thread)
David should stick with economy ' geopolitics is not his strong side.🙉🇺🇦🇺🇸🇬🇧👍
You cant invest without knowledge of geo politics
You are so right
Finally, a logical explanation for what just happened in the market. Thank you very much.
You can only tell if markets are expensive or cheap using some valuation model but you cant tell when the market will adjust.
Watch the rats leaving their finance and economics positions. Waiting for the 2007 crash, it was being extended as rats started leaving. I knew it would be just weeks when good ol’ Larry Summers decided he had done all he could do in government as Presidental Economic Advisor in June 2008, and he went to run Harvard. After being in there since Reagan came into office.🙄The other Big Rat Bernanke left too.
I knew the crash of the fraud would be imminent. Turned out to be 10 weeks.📉
Politics is life or death in the US. Women have died because they cannot access health care since Roe overturned, and they do not have autonomy over their bodies. But who would notice or care?
I'm so lost at these people who voted for Trump they truly believe he's only going to do the policies that they want. And it's not going to do the policies he said he was going to do
Do these people are not understand he has the Senate the house the supreme Court he can do anything he wants
And we all know the man is not that bright
Even if he's not that bright, which is highly debatable, he is surrounding himself with bright people, many of whom are taking cabinet positions. It really doesn't matter whether he does what he says he would, or something completely different, so long as he does what is in the best interest of the country as a whole. People are not going to like the changes, both those for and against him, but the status quo we have now is far worse than what is to come.
TDS sufferers should use the help of psychologists rather than posting on YT
@@JScottHamiltonall the people from Fox? Those bright people?
@@user-lq6wc3ci3q Hegseth? Ivy League graduate of both Princeton _and_ Harvard (Kennedy School of Government), author, combat veteran, worked for a major financial firm, and yes, "slumming" for Fox.
@JScottHamilton you sure. Matt gatz The AG
So if I understand this correctly, People are not worried because they believe that the unpredictable man will be predictable? How can this make sense?
is this guy a bookstore?
Plus he was soooo negative after 2009,,,,he said it would crash further....he got relesed for that poor call...think he was at a Canadian firm then.
The popular vote differential isn’t 3 points. It’s 1.7 and continues to narrow as votes are counted.
I hope we have a great bursting of the equity bubble, a depression and somehow, a return to a normal government and society.
Yeah, normal Government and Society...Didn't you guys just elect trump??? Something not making sense here...
It may finally wake the populace up to the craziness of Trump and his followers if there is a financial crash, accompanied by soaring unemployment and inflation.
Rosie! I have been searching for a current interview! And with the Mooch! Amazing! 🇨🇦❤️
my favorite : inflation brings down empires
we have global inflation, so which one?
Great program, Mooch. Very good.
I’m ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.
Index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs): 40-50%; rising markets (like VWO): 10-15%; dividend stocks: 10-20%; growth stocks/small-caps: 10-20%; and REITs: 5-10% When you first start out, always partner with someone who is educated about the financial market to prevent getting burned.
DCA DCA" is the sloppy term but the key. My dollar portfolio i DCA with is made up of 30% PLTR, 25% NVDA, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends. Q3 taxable divs this year was $18,388 this year.
Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
She goes by ''Amber Michelle Smith'' a renowned figure in the financial industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
I just checked her website, and I’m even more impressed! The range of financial strategies and resources she offers is amazing. I can see why so many people trust her with their investments-looking forward to working together!
I always enjoy David Rosenberg's factual insights.
Trump's new tariff plan might ignite a trade war, prompting me to reevaluate my $400K investment portfolio to minimize potential losses. I’m looking for effective strategies to navigate this uncertainty.
A long-term approach can definitely help with navigating market volatility. Set Clear Goals, Focus on Quality Investments,Stay Patient and Avoid Emotional Reactions, and Work with a Financial Advisor
After selling at a loss during the dip, I was hesitant to reinvest my $600K. My financial advisor created a long-term strategy, focusing on diversification and dollar-cost averaging. In just 18 months, my portfolio grew to $850K. Their guidance has been invaluable in helping me stay steady and think long-term through market changes.
That's amazing! Could you share how I might get in touch with your advisor? I’d love to learn more about their approach and see if they can help me achieve similar results.
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I’ve just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage, very much appreciate this
If interest rates are above 9% and falling --> buy bonds.
This is a good time for cash and look for oportuntities.
Hahahaha
No one knows anything guys. Markets are a gambling casino, always were, always have been....
Wall street knows. Don't worry. It's not private Investors starting crash. It's mafias mob on wall street
@@Iwatchcnn You are literally contradicting yourself: 'it's hard to time the market' and then saying 'wait for the crash and buy'. You can;t say those 2 things at the same time 🙂
Sure, you can buy an index fund and DCA into it but I'd encourage you to read the history of stock markets and how our financial system works. You'll be amazed and shocked by what you learn. Wishing you the best
Here's my 2 cents of advice if you really want to make it: DCA into Bitcoin, buy more when it dips next cycle and you'll do very well. Good luck
@@simrans3675 No one can specifically time it, but there is a reason Buffet is sitting on piles of cash. I will take my gains now, thank you and buy them back for 50% less
David is the best!
Wonder if hes seen the 70s inflation fractal we are following it identically. If it continues inflation will go even higher.
Very different demographics, I for one find it hard to see the 70s repeating.
However, I have to say, I really appreciate David’s POV and the clarity that he provides.
Love David Rosenberg
Here in the UK interest rates were cut by 0.25% yet fixed rate mortgage rates are going up - this does not bode well for inflation.
We had two cuts in usa a .50 & .25 cut & mortgage rates went up also.
Why?
What concerns me is that Trump is putting people in top positions purely based on blind loyalty to him, not on qualifications or competency.
The incompetent appointments are by design. Remember the goal is the deconstruction of the administrative state. That's not a wild claim or a conspiracy theory. It's been stated by many of the principles of the maga movement and it's also stated clearly in project 2025. By putting incompetent people in place, Trump will totally control each of those departments. I'm sure we'll all be very pleased with the results
Uh, you mean like Obummer did?
@ I’d like you to give me even one instance of that. Obama selected people based on their qualifications.
@@LeonardBreau Eric Holder was a communist and not qualified for his position. You are simply an Obummer-fellator.
If we see the huge Tariffs, there is no doubt Equities will plunge, and there is a good chance it could kick off a new Depression.
Go Rosie!
It's only good when the government hands out money to billionaires.
It's always bad when the government helps working people. This is what people on both sides are against
If Elizabeth Warren and Jim Cramer got together and had a child, it would be Anthony Scaramucci.
I used to work at Merrill Lynch, just to have access to David Rosenberg--amazing takes here, please have him on again!
P.S. if this guy thinks the House is gonna do anything other than rubber stamp whatever Donald Trump puts in front of them, he is (again) an idiot or just very very out of touch.
So what made you think you're sure about your idea? 😳😳😳 Please explain!
Regarding gold and gold miners (see comment at 36:30), while gold has seen good upside, the same can not be said of the gold miners. Gold miners have done poorly compared to gold in this recent gold rally.
Regarding inflation, no one talks about how inflation was a global phenomenon. Inflation did not just occur in the US but in
hundreds of countries around the world. In the UK the conservative government was blamed for high inflation while in Canada the Liberal government was to blame. You can multiply this by the number of countries that experienced inflation post Covid and come up with over 100 government leaders that were blamed for high inflation in their respective countries. So the question is, were all these various governments or their leaders responsible for the high inflation that was experienced globally?
Market is always correct, that's how you make money. If you think the market is not correct you are a loser.
CoVax/ Raytheon...
When? No one know
Thank you very much...
A land mine explosion couldn’t happen to a more deserving guy, however, with his, and his “administration’s” incompetence, I fear for our long term future.
Love that you got the Mooch on board! Greetings from Sweden!
I like David Rosenberg but his bias towards Trump and his policies, clearly evident in this video, cancel his message and raise questions about his judgement. Look at Allan Lichtman who was certain Trump would lose, even in the face of obvious polls during the final days leading up to the US Presidential Elections that had turned decidedly against Harris. My message to David is don't allow personal prejudice to infect your outlook like it does to so many Liberals and socialists - its a bad look. We don't care that you don't like Trump, just stick to the topic.
For real, Obama didn't invite Republicans into White House. Did Trump do that? "The divide started int he 90s", did Trump do anything to reduce it, any messaging around that?
"The checks created inflation", yeah, and all the money given to Wall Street, including the day it tanked at the beginning of COVID, didn't?
What a joke
Even the Republican Campaign thought Trump was going to lose up to the morning of the election. As did the Harris Campaign. Pollsters can't predict turnout well and she lost on turnout only.
@@cloudpoint0 you're either delusional, uninformed or lying - I suspect the latter. In 2016 I think no one expected Trump to win because all the polls said he would lose in a landslide, but not this time around.
Regarding lichtman:
Lichtman specifically states that his method ignores polling. And you are telling us Lichtman ignored polling. Ok
Inflation was caused by the inability 45 to handle COVID, not by giving away stimulus checks.
This recession is taking too long to arrive. It was called in march 2022, still waiting for it, 3 years later
Record fiscal deficits kept it at bay. Borrow to hire in the government, among other things.
Continued fiscal stimulus has kicked the can down the wrong.
Yield curve uninverted in September this year, Sahm rule in July, those are closer to coincident indicators… agree there were some that have been very early to this call, and it’s since it’s been a fantastic time to be in markets. Both can, and usually have been, true.
The longer and stronger the government meddles in the business cycle, the worse it will be for the down cycle, aka the recession.
All the bond bulls have been basically destroyed
Thoughtful perspective. Thank you.
Anthony seems unhappy that Trump got in, I'm a small business, and the NFIB reports show that small businesses are struggling
Of course he is unhappy. He hates Trump. As far as small business goes. A small or large business isn't successful because of who the president is. I've never heard or seen any successful business owner ever give all credit to who sits in the oval office. Usually with success, the business owner wants all the credit. But in bad times, looks to find blame. I know its easy to play victim. But is it possible that a struggling business, simply had a bad business model?
will tariffs help, hurt, or neutral for you business, just curious
Trump will do exactly what he said he will do. I believe it's too late to fix the mess though. Mortgage defaults are at 2.25% auto loan defaults are at 4.5%, and credit card default/charge off is it at 7.8% .The worst part is, the bank cant clear these assets from their books without taking huge losses due to the upside down auto loans. This doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.
People hated the inflation. I'm sure they will feel the same about deflation.
Inflation is better. The Ag sector is in a depression now.
@@kevinnoah-i4o Ag ?
Territorial concessions being forced on Ukraine would be horrible. IT would be allowing Russia to be rewarded for the terrorism, It would be allowing Russia to rebuild their military after that reward... they would have to live knowing that they will just come for more.
Where do market timers like me stand, I have 300k in money market funds with Fidelity and scared to invest in anything, stocks and gold are volatile alike and bonds are a no go area for me? What is the best course of action?
Wait until after all the polls are closed, do not make any moves yet. Nobody knows where this rollercoaster of markets is up next.
How does one get a financial planner who isn’t just looking to make a buck? (upfront fees and whatnot) my spouse and I are in the market for guidance at this point
What’r the fees like for visiting with this advisor of yours?
Buy 3 or 4 month t-bills. Get safe 4.5% interest that is exempt from state and local taxes. Do it now before rates go any lower.
Herbert Hoover is knocking on the door.
This show has gone done hill since Adam left.
💯
One thing I have to disagree with was a family citizen pittance that was equal to or less than a tax refund caused the inflation BS. It was what the FED did in its buying spree and PPI. Then the FED had to unwind its books, which made business borrowing for everything they do like heroin addicts cost them a lot more, so they passed that on in spades. Everything not lean and mean squeezing shareholders and C-Suite going forward, should be out of business permanently. Because it is going to get very ugly for business, that I agree with 100%.
He's surrounded himself by Matt gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan lol
great team, better than anyone imagined
@@ElementaryWatson-123😂😂😂
They're his supporters. Anyone who thought he'd pick otherwise is delusional.
@@quixomega More importantly they support his ideas. Trump doesn't hesitate hiring people who in the past opposed him or even said bad stuff about him. If they are qualified and on board with his agenda they are getting the jobs.
A lot better than Tampon Tim. 😜😜
Substantial tariffs = increased inflation. 60% tariff on China imports passed on to consumers in Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Lowes, Target, etc. US producers raise their prices to maximize profits as import prices rise. Substantial tariffs = increased inflation.
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy and invest in Gold or other reliable stock , the government has failed us and we cant keep living like this.
Yes, gold is a great investment and a good bet against the devaluating dollar, been holding some for awhile now, I’m grateful my adviser’s moment by moment changes in the market are lightening quick, cos who know how much losses I would’ve had by now.
My CFA Melissa Terri Swayne , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
For the Trump supporters, name one thing he has ever been successful at? He owns real estate, which is different than actually starting and running a profitable business. Every time he ventured into an actual business, IT FAILED.
My worry as a Harris supporter was that we were headed for a downturn, and it would have been blamed on her. Housing prices are as bloated and unrealistic as 2007-8. Inflation is cooling, but consumer confidence is still low, and consumers are carrying lots of debt bloated by past inflation. We are headed for a recession and possibly a deep one. Having an adult in the office, we would have had a soft landing. Now with Trump, his policies will do nothing but deepen and worsen what is inevitable.
Dave has been calling for huge dropp for two years ,he was wrong everytime
He sure left a lot of money on the table, I hope he wasn't shorting 😁
He'll be right just like Harry Dent will be right. They're ponzi's based on absolutely zero fundamentals with real P/E ratios in the hundreds when in the past they were around 15. If you go back far enough in time corporate accounting was honest unlike today.
He's probably loaded with his 3% coupon bonds he always tells everyone to buy meanwhile the stock market doubles and pays 2 percent dividend.
Thanks! Enjoyed
Free Palestine!
fantastic questions and analysis- thank you Gentlemen
Scaramucci eating crow 🐦⬛
Thanks for the interview!
Crypto - Never bet against something drug dealers can use for money laundering.
😂
Like the US Dollar and Mexican Peso 🎉
NOTE: @@new.Key.1941 is unaware of any money laundering prosecutions in Mexico or the US. Fear not, those will cease with AG Gaetz, at least in the US.
This guy has been trying to be right about stocks since he was born 😅😅😅😅😅
that's a fresh new look at crypto investing 😂
Thanks. Excellent talk from David. toronto
This guy what a joke. He thinks inflation is going to come down even further under Trump. What a 🤡
Maybe only if we have a deep correction that stays down long enough to freak 😜 most out. Today was only a mini shake out.
they both are 🤡🤡
Yes, he keeps talking about how hard it is for Congress to pass legislation, but trump can do his 2 biggest inflationary policies without Congress: deportations and tariffs.
Trump loves tariffs and this time he’s not surrounded by sane people who will hold him back. The people he’s put in charge of immigration are gung ho on mass deportations.
@@DailySourcehillarious
Very interesting conversation. Thanks. I just want to get back to sanity!
This guy dont know JACK about politics.
He didn't beat his opponent by 3%. Today's tally he is down to 1.6% victory and 49.9%. This is NO mandate by any stretch.
Claiming Kamala is on the left leaning side of the party, when she literally campaigned with Liz Cheney seems like a joke from Dumb and dumber.
never-Trump rinos often sided with leftists, why would that surprise you?
He said this because Harris is black that's all.
Correction, David. The political polarization got serious during the Vietnam War and has continued since then. The parties were much better at putting country first before that.
I think "Scaramucci" means scare-mongering in Italian.
Rosenberg is much more level-headed about what Trump is going to do.
that was pretty good...
I think Anthony understands the US and Trump better than most people including Mr. Rosenberg.
There are only two ways of getting out of debt and inflation predicaments, it's either a decade long austerity/high taxes/sluggish economy, or growing economy much faster than 2%. I think it's clear Trump's team will drive the latter.
Scaramuccia [skaraˈmuttʃa]; lit. 'little skirmisher
Assuming rationality with Trump is a fatal mistake.
Excellent guest...host is a creep!
Trump supporter?
Kinda rude. My guess is you are a Trump supporter. Well, we will see just how long you like him after you lose your shirt, your freedoms, and your country. AND WE LOVE THE MOOCH!!
@@drmodestoesq He has no moral compass. He could care less whose butt he needs to kiss as long as it is green.
@@dallasstudent1605 You pay a huge price for going against Trump and MAGA. And you get huge financial benefits for cosying up to Trump. If you have access to Trump, he'll give you the legislation you want. Even if it contradicts MAGA ideology.
He's already packing the government with neo-cons.
Trumps God is MAMMON. Let’s get real folks
If the equity bubble bursts, then the best trade is to short equities.
Trump loves this country. He shows it to
he loves only himself
yep, Trump went through many sacrifices and persecutions just to help the country to get better
@@ElementaryWatson-123 Persecutions? Like his more than 90 criminal charges.
He shows it to … ? whom?
If inflation keeps tracking 1970s inflation like it has been inflation is about to go much higher. Unlike the 70s the debt is substantially higher so if interest rates went to over 20 per cent it would cause a bit of a problem for the Republicans.
Great content
The big difference between gold and crypto is that gold will never make you poor. Thousands of years of a track record proves that.
I would rather buy tulips than crypto
He does not think people voted for Trump policies, priceless.
Heard the price keeps rising & is out of control
Thanks for info here
Please explain how the US-specific policies and “other things” created inflation globally? And why is this country doing better than any other Western country?
for an ultra conservative investor, he sure doesnt take Trump's word as a severe risk.