Still waiting for Patrick Minford's presentation on how well the UK economy & business is doing post Brexit..... waiting...... waiting ... still waiting 🤔
@Paul Copsey "Still waiting for Patrick Minford's presentation on how well the UK economy & business is doing post Brexit..... waiting...... waiting ... still waiting"? HOW long can you hold your breath?
To be fair Minford is spot on with what he said in the televised parliamentary select committee. He said Brexit would destroy the car industry in the UK. OK, so far the government has given Nissan billions in Brexit bribes to stay since leaving but the rest have certainly started leaving. He said UK farming and fishing would be destroyed and he and fellow Tory and Brexit voters are successfully achieving that. The other main area he said was heavy engineering and again British Industries in that area are closing or moving abroad.
@@johncapo2843 if you flood the market with cheap foriegn itinerent labour indiginous workers wages will go down. Ye gods. Did you learn nothing from corbyn?
@@johncapo2843 youve obviously never done a hard days work in your life. Read jeremy corbyn and why he was against european expansion. He believed it would bring down wages. And it did. Thats why we left. Learn about subjects from a working class point of view before you start geytin all champagne socialist on eveypne.
The trade war was started by the EU because it didn't take rejection well and it had to make its point... which turned out to be ' The EU is a nasty regime' thank god for Brexit.
"numbers" For example in the first slide: the values given are in percent and the subject is year over year growth of the sum of imports and exports compared to GDP. That's three variables and we are only looking at the delta and then express that as a percentage. Let that sink in for a minute before we look at the absolute numbers posted on the website and compare them individually. Italy's GDP in 2017.Q1 was 1717B, exports 529B, imports 476B UK's GDP in 2017.Q1 (converted to EUR with 0.88 rate) was 2.356B, exports 705B, imports 735B Italy's GDP in 2021.Q4 was 1807B, exports 612B, imports 599B UK GDP in 2021.Q4 (converted to EUR with 0.86 rate) was 2798B, exports 787B, imports 816B Italy gained 90B in GDP, 82B in exports and 123B in imports. In percentages that's +5.26 GDP, +15.62 exports, +25.9 imports. UK gained 442B in GDP, 82B in exports and 81B in imports. Again in percentages +18.76 GDP, +11.64 exports, +11.02 imports. So yeah, the UK gained five times the GDP increase of Italy (similar to Germany's 462B gain in the same period), similar exports and less imports. Let's have a quick peek on the other leader, Japan: -3.6% GDP (yep, negative), +7.4% exports, +19.74% imports. The idea here suggest that GDP doesn't matter as long as your exports and imports are higher. A similar story with the immigration numbers: 145000 EU-born people left the UK from 2018 to 2021. That's 4.13% of the total EU-born population in the UK and 0.22 of the total population. Etc. Did Brexit have impact on exports, imports and immigration? Yeah, almost as if that was obvious from leaving the free trade and immigration block of the EU.
I’ve been waiting for this talk. Adam Posen is a great economist of international trade. He always starts with trying to find good sources of data and should be listened to.
Where is the data of China? He strikes me as a liberal globalist! What comes first - citizenry or economics? Government owes it's existence to its citizens so it follows it's FIRST priority is to its citizens NOT ACCOMMODATING ECONOMIC MIGRANTS AT THE EXPENSE OF ITS CITIZENS!
Economics is not provable science but I must say there are quite a few accepted models set over the decades and Adam really explain how Brexit relate to those and how now the figures proves the models right. Great speech.
24:30 Posen says he worried needlessly that Britain would "race to the bottom" in financial services and standards in order to attract investment. Now that he's seen Truss and Kwarteng in action, is he worried again?
I think this sentence by Nick Clegg from many years ago describing (some) of his countrymen includes everything regarding the reason for brexit - " ..a misplaced sense of superiority, sustained by delusions of grandeur and a tenacious obsession with the last war..".
I qualified in Trade Economics and GATT (before WTO) in 1982. I will tell you that Adam Posen is the best economist I have seen speak on Brexit. The future is bleak we will have inflation and a shrinking economy for many years to come. We are also experiencing a skills and brain drain to europe america canada australia etc etc as they snap up our best people.
@@sigma-zero This is far too early to list any positives or negatives as we only fully left the EU at the end of 2020 and are still dealing with the effects of Covid and the invasion of Ukraine. You should know as an economist that making economic predictions is a waste of time unless you have a very reliable crystal ball. Nearly every economist predicted after the pandemic there would be a huge economic boom due to pent up demand but look at the global situation at the moment. The government also need to help make Brexit a success by cutting Corporation tax rates to encourage inward investment rather than raising them to 25%.
@@VincentRE79 Hi Vincent, Just a couple of points, the reason we do economic forecasting is so investors and governments can plan ahead and for example build infrastructure to meet demand. Economic planning is far from perfect but what we do is look historically to see the future. It took us 13 years to join the eu which we did in 1972 but the effects of it did not appear until the mid eighties. In between we were in such a poor state we were borrowing from the IMF. We are now back in the 70's with high inflation, poor trade, strikes etc. Apart from Russia we are the worst economy in the G7 and predicted to stay like that. To answer the corporation tax issue, large corporations/investors are not concerned with tax as they move money round the world to avoid it. The war covid etc makes no difference to the fact that we have left the single market which is the reason so much investment came to the uk over the past 40years. Good luck with Brexit but I think you will find flogging a dead horse will just not work. Regards Steve
@@sigma-zero Steve, firstly I would say the reason our economy recovered in the mid 80's was mainly down to the Thatcher reforms not our EEC membership. Large corporations are attracted by low corporation tax rates, just look at the example of Ireland for this and it's 12.5% rate. Most people who voted Brexit were aware there would be an economic hit but took other issues into account like myself. This "Back to the 70's" cliche seems to get lazily rolled out every so often by the media, then the BOE base rate hit 17% and the CPI was 25%. 50% of workers were members of unions in the 1970's now 24% and falling. Things are nothing like the 70's at all really. Membership of the Single Market also meant free movement and the electorate made their decision.
The shrinking of the triangle of trade is hugely informative. It captures succinctly all the primary and secondary direct effects of the post Brexit reality. Facts and analysis define that economic “gravity” exists and ranks over mass emotions and ideology. As the saying goes “hope is not a plan”. Brexit was pure hope and never had a plan. Not even a hopeful one.
Brexshit was a plan by a man Who was so intelligent he did not even know or understand how British economey, politics, international relations and international money markets worked.
This is a very good speech. Funnily enough the main thing I'd take issue with is Posen's use of the word "positives" regarding Brexit. Yes, it is a positive thing that we've not deregulated the City of London but that's not a positive of Brexit, it's just a potential Brexit issue that didn't come to pass. The City wasn't going to be deregulated had we stayed in the EU. And the same applies for non-EU migration. I had no concerns this would fall, despite Brexit we're clearly still an attractive place to come to for much of the world. We had full control of it before and still do.
On the topic of Brexit, Adam Posen (AP) presents by far the most clear and impartial digest. As AP says, Britons need to realise that their country is no longer the heart of an empire. Notwithstanding their delusions of grandeur, the EU will not allow Britain to lead everyone else. And Britain will risk becoming even more inconsequential if they insist on trying to defy gravity in the new fragmented world.
That was bourne out by 1 female British politician Ms Braverman I think when she said that it was time to make Ireland go hungry again ( A direct reference to the Genocide that the British inflicted on Ireland in 19th Century in order to try and make its writ run) and that Ireland should know its place. The delusion of Grandeur that the British have know no bounds.
Thank you to everybody involved. My thoughts are that the trade & FDI numbers speak for themselves, and they were predicted and are incontrovertible, but as yet the Govt. does not acknowledge them as being Brexit related. Much responsibility now rests with the UK press to ensure the Govt. is accountable & transparent. Big job at a difficult time.
Sadly last night all the coverage I saw was repeating the line after the Queens speech that Brexit was going to be the solution to our cost of living crisis. No journalist I saw challenged this bald faced assertion because Brexit is now seen as taboo or something where by broadcasters worry about offending those that are invested as seeing it as a patriotic miracle. I didn't see Newsnight or C4 news, but neither do most viewers and soon they won't be able to after policies outlined in the same speech that will ultimately remove the last vestiges of quality journalism .
@@garrywillits8025 I think it is true that much of whats on news nowadays is just Govt narrative and on those rare occasions a minister is available and asked a searching question they just avoid it and talk about whatever suits their agenda. Propaganda, misinformation & disinformation is substituted for news. The Govt. has far too much influence on the media. The media is emasculated because the Govt. controls the purse strings.
An excellent presentation. Just a comment about Wales; a study carried out by Oxford University concluded that the majority for pro-Brexit came about only because many English people had bought property in Wales and moved there, as prices were cheaper than in England.
@@mikemines2931 not too bright are we. Nobody said that the English moving to Wales was a problem, just an observation as to why it made it appear that the Welsh wanted Brexit when it was clearly not in their interest. It made no difference to the outcome so why would we care about that anyway. You simple folk are so easily stirred into looking for weaknesses but only exposing your own.
@@tonycook7679 So sorry, Ford measured my IQ to be 148. It was a stipulation of joining their robotic vision research dept to have a test. Sorry if I've not come up to your standard. The Welsh off the English taxpayer bring it on say I ditto Scotland.
@@mikemines2931 high IQ means you're intelligent, not that you're smart. Just because you have a talent doesn't mean you're producing any good result. You not knowing the difference basically proves the point that you're not smart.
Not true sadly. By being forced to source its goods from the more expensive Irish Republic instead of the cheaper GB, NI inflation is likely to be worse. And most of the apparent increase in NI to RoI trade flows is simply rerouting of England-to-RoI trade via Larne/Belfast. It has only marginal benefit to NI. Business confidence is lowest in NI of all the UK regions - that does not suggest NI is doing “fine economically”. The UK has lots of news sources that shine harsh lights on the government of the day - at present the Tories are well challenged by the Ch4, BBC, Guardian etc. whereas Ireland suffers from a more nationalisitic form of journalism that makes the Irish feel better about themselves rather than informing them (why for instance does the Irish press focus on Ireland’s GDP but never its GNP? In a normal country they’d be equivalent, but in a corporate tax haven they are different - aren’t the Irish people entitled to know about this?). Hence Daithi thinks the NI protocol is good for NI. It COULD be good but would require the “Green Channel” for GB-to-NI trade that the EU/Irish are refusing. Without this there will be no NI executive and thus the protocol, which the EU still claims is to protect the GFA, is in fact the principal reason the GFA institutions are suspended. If only RTE and the Irish Times etc were more honest about this then the Irish people might be more inclined to find a half-way accommodation that suits everyone and will thus be stable. So Yes, Brexit shook the NI snow-globe up, but it was the EU/RoI’s choice to not let things settle sensibly again that has taken us where we are. Enda Kenny tried, to his credit, but everyone since has wanted to make ideological gains at NI’s expense.
@@bargepoled in Q1, output was +0.8% in the UK but only +0.4% in NI despite the NIP. Yes we are all about to go into recession and NI’s large public sector will insulate it on the way into recession (though be a drag on the way back out). Q2 isn’t out yet so how confident are you about 1.4%?
@@dennismoore2894 pretty confident. The Office of National Statistics found that Northern Ireland’s gross domestic product grew 1.4 percent in the July-September quarter of 2021, compared with gains of 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent in Scotland and England, respectively. Economic activity in Wales shrank 0.3 percent over the same quarter. I may have mixed up economic growth with GDP but the point still stands. NI is doing way better than the rest of the UK. Economic analysis explicitly credited Northern Ireland’s continued access to barrier-free trade with the 27-nation EU as a key driver. That picture is reinforced by monthly reports from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office, which has documented a string of record-high trade figures between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland since the January 2021 launch of post-Brexit trade rules.
@@bargepoled in fairness your data is a year out of date. The most recent data suggests that NI is far from doing “way better than the rest of the UK” - it is growing more slowly and business confidence is amongst the lowest in the UK - and that is despite the protocol. If you sincerely cared about NI you would support the protocol “green channel” reforms HMG are having to push through as this will a) permit the restoration of the GFA institutions and b) allow NI businesses & households to import freely & more cheaply from its biggest market (GB). This will benefit NI Nationalists & Unionists equally. And Irish trade figures are part of the problem I pointed out in the first place. They misrepresent GB trade diversion via NI as somehow being beneficial to NI.
Very interesting presentation. Agreed largely with what Mr Posen said. However, It's just been announced that UK government is planning to reform financial services in the UK. Part of which is relaxing constraints on how much capital they need to hold. So the race to the bottom may yet happen, with a consequent financial crash. Marvellous!
You are correct, companies here in Ireland are seeing a huge increase in job applications from Uk citizens and it’s not just professional positions it’s across the board applications.
@@nicholasflynn5376 Indeed. There has been a noticeable increase in GB/UK reg plates on the roads here, and an equally noticeable increase in English accents in bars and shops. On top of the Ukrainian refugees, we have a flood of Brixit refugees....
Posen was amongst the loudest doomsayers predicting Brexit apocolypse - clearly, he believes we've forgotten that and it's now safe to put his head above the paraphet. As you might expect from an economist, his lens remains economic - he, in common with his ilk, fails to - or won't - consider voters were not driven by economics of leaving the EU. Many of those voters resided in areas turned into east Europe-on-sea. They also were living the effects of real wage reversion over 20 years. Now, I see many Polish/Romanian shops shuttered - some have even been turned back to English convenience shops run by Asians 😄 Oh wait...Posen calls that racism! Yes, we have strikes back - sure, disruptive to every day life but a sign that wage rebalancing is starting - people no longer have to eat the shit of falling wages while their masters enjoy inflated profits because theirs a sub-min wage eastern European immigrant waiting to take their job if they dare ask for 'more'. There's a reason economists don't rule the world - they're ALWAYS FUCKING WRONG! Listen to this waffling part- he ascribes the non-realisation of his doom mongering to the positive action of others - implication: "they must have listened to my warnings"
A brilliant, entertaining, truthfully unbiased analysis of Brexit so far and where Brexit may lead in the future. Basically the potential dangers far outweigh potential gains.....but a lot will depend on the course taken by UK leadership. So far things aren't looking good, with political dogma possibly the biggest risk to a 'successful' Brexit. PS A 'successful' Brexit is probably one that is NOT catastrophic for the economy.
Before the Withdrawal Agreement was finalised between the UK and EU, the member states of EFTA agreed not to consider an application from the UK as it would be disproportionately large and disruptive to good trading relationships. Consequently, the future relationship of the UK with the EU would appear to be either convergence towards the latter, or a withering of the UK economy on the vine.
Rejoining any EU trading body will never happen. The tory govt are on a deliberate divergence in their laws and standards. It will take more than a generation to see any recovery. But recovery isn't even the plan, only an authoritarian regime with undereducated, scared and hungry citizens. It's going to get dark.
The part on the absence of a nationalist anti-immigration policy has not aged well thanks to Priti Patel's Rwanda policy. And even if it had aged well, that is not a positive, but just the absence of something negative.
Ask your bookkeeper. The only known benefits of Brexit are in money laundering and tax evasion. And if you have connections with the current UK government.
Informative and interesting thank you but as a resident of the UK I have to disagree strongly with the idea that brexit hasn't been accompanied by / carried along by an extremely xenophobic wave
No; although not all people who voted for Brexit were xenophobes or racists, but all racists and xenophobes did vote for Brexit. If you read Timothy Snyder's "20 Lessons on Tyranny from the 20th Century," you will see how easy it is to choke off the moral imagination in people, and enable them to become fellow travellers that facilitates the wrongdoing of others. Fear and anger as outrage, are powerful levers on the psyche. That's why this regime is stoking the fires of division, othering and scapegoating minorities, and normalising callousness and ignorance. It happened elsewhere in the 20th century, and its happening here, in the US and Russia too. The game is being played to secure power, and these are the tools.
The thing is, I resented immigration before Brexit. Brexit doesn't make me *more* xenophobic than before. In fact, if anything, it reduces the degree of anxiety and frustration. And I'm not the only one. The public were more concerned about immigration in 2015 than they were in 2021.
@@CBfrmcardiff a lot of people didn't realise the benefits of immigration. I remember the poster Farage paid for with his Russian money depicting a long queue of turks he said were going to come to the UK. People were told immigration was bad or even illegal. Now people are realising immigration from thexEU is a benefit as they did the jobs, paid the tax but then went home again and didn't need looking afterxwhen they got old.
Saw a news item from the UK that highlights the rapid growth of the search - "moving abroad" among British citizens who want to leave the country on account of the rise in cost of living.
If so, then good riddance to them. They must be amongst the thicker members of society if they really believe that the UK is the only country suffering high inflation.
@@batcollins3714 You've reinforced my opinion that remoaners are economically illiterate as well as brainwashed. Inflation in the US is 8.6%; in Greece (an EU member) it's 11.9%; in Czech Republic (an EU member) it's 14.2%; in Latvia (an EU country) it's 16.9%; and in Lithuania (an EU country) it's 20%. Still, we mustn't let facts get in the way of your agenda, eh?
The Posen-Truss discussion is actually available on UA-cam: "What role for the UK in the global trading system " by Peterson Institute. It's truly entertaining.
The Treasury has just indicated it’s plan on financial deregulation in the Queen’s speech. Let’s see how the Singapore-on-Thames will look like eventually.
As a Singaporean, I often find the idea of 'Singapore-on-Thames' offensive. Singapore is not a deregulation free-market fundi paradise, it's actually started out the opposite and still is in many ways. Most of what made Singapore success, is what would be consider massively socialist by the US conservative.
@@biocapsule7311 No need to be offended. It's just a statement verifying the stupidity of Brexiteers. They know nothing about nothing and them knowing nothing about Singapore is just a part of the vastness of their ignorance.
There is now a move to race to the bottom. That was always a possible result but not an immediate one. There is still that pressure. Usually it is those who don't understand the consequences of massive deregulation that will push for it. I suspect that this is just about to happen.
At 24:26 there is some scary thing happening... too close was he ALMOST right, if Mr. Posen had predicted political fallout from the fall of Johnson to Truss... but his thing is economics and not politics. How brilliant
People were also lied to about the Economic consequences eg Red Bus. Would have more respect for Brexit if honest about Economic consequences and people still decided to vote Brexit. Sold have cake and eat it.
A Norway style relationship with the EU is and always was the only end game for Brexit. No matter how you look at it there is no other place it could go. It is also exactly a Brexit-in-Name-Only, which again is totally inevitable. It is already that in reality, since it is a pipe-dream that the UK can really set regulatory themes, it cannot since nobody else will care for them and implementing them for yourself is only a cost to manufacturing for the UK. You can create the regulations, but you cannot force people to manufacture to them if the major markets are not in the UK. Nobody can afford to keep two different product chains just to keep Boris happy.
@@VincentRE79 of course not to any of the Brexiteers I agree. Fortunately in the very near future a very significant portion of the Brexiteers will be dead. After that commonse may well rear its head and Brexit will be what it always was, a geriatric pipedream.
An act of self abuse and appalling consequences for our people. We should have had at least 51% majority for brexit. It was a right wing coup of self harm and made a lot of money for those at the top who had influence and had a big bet on us leaving.
Your one of those people who only believes in democracy when it goes your way. You have no belief in your own country and that's why you would prefer a group of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels to run it which is rather sad to say the least.
A "binding referendum" would have entailed 3 conditions: - a government white paper, pre-referendum, detailing exactly what was envisioned & planned; - some pre-determined super-majority, say 60%, to overturn the status quo; - and legally enforceable campaign regulations concerning honesty & campaign finance - the two Leave campaigns both broke the rules on campaign finance and both told a catalogue of lies with almost no consequences. All three of these conditions were *knowingly & deliberately* avoided by Cameron's decision not to make the referendum a binding one. He's as culpable for the massive swindle that Brexit is as shysters like Johnson, Farage and the fixers like Nix & Mercer. The solitary practical reason for Brexit was to protect the £11 Trillion (best estimate from 10 years ago) of assets held in the extensive British controlled network of tax havens and the vast service sector that manages this industry. Cameron failed in 2013 to persuade the EU to agree to allow the UK an exemption from regulation so as continue protecting the secrecy of offshore trusts (specifically, as opposed to companies), to hide beneficial ownership. Cameron's own father was one of the pioneers of the British elite's current wealth hoarding & money laundering system Adam Posen downplayed the role of money laundering (& tax-avoided wealth hoarding) in Brexit Britain but that old £11 Trillion figure is approaching half of the global total and it's not as if it has reduced. Britain, via the privately owned corporation of the City of London, may not have turned into "Grand Cayman on Thames", as Posen said was an unfounded concern of his, but it already was and remains so. Nothing on that score has improved, it continues to benefit only the tiny wealthy elite and it continues to be significantly against the interests of the vast majority of British subjects. I see the 2016 referendum as a massive propaganda coup, a gigantic fraudulent manipulation, engineered using masses of social media data, effectively a psychological operation, hence the significant roles of Alexander Nix and Robert Mercer.
@@ObserverDingue Thank you for revealing these facts, which most people, including myself, have never heard of. By the way, British subjects haven´t been around since 1983. Where have you been? LOL.
Everyone who voted to leave the EU had their own reasons for doing so. Sovereignty and racism. Freedom and racism. Defining their own laws and racism. Independence and racism. British exceptionalism and racism. Nominative determinalism and racism. Worldwide trade and racism. Bigotry and racism. Is is therefore deeply unfair to suggest that all brexiteers voted for the same reason or that they are a collective identifiable segment of society. Discus.
You forgot Security! The main reason why the home office exists... To keep the population safe. The freedom of movement without relevant security checks was ludicrous. Hopefully moving forward, big crime networks, sex trafficking will find it harder to operate in this country due to checks.
@@aljack1979 Those checks didn't exist for EU citizens but most of those problems came from other parts of the world. Now EU citizens have to go through the same checks other foreigners go through, so do Brits coming to Spain, for example. Is the UK more secure now? I doubt it.
Jess Hopkins wrote: "We'd better get our referendum ASAP. If Ireland has theirs first - and win - many of those who identify as 'British' [Loyalist DUP] will come to Scotland. I can't see many of them voting to end English rule over the union!" End of Quote. Source Scottish Herald/Newsquest group. Correct. Indy2 now, please, Nicola and thank you. We must become the Republic of Scotland as soon as possible and end Loyalist violence and English divide and rule over Scottish natural and human resources. Like Ukraine, Scotland's future is inside a non-political union we call Europe. I am so proud of all the people of Scotland who produced this stunning answer to the unionist and loyalist divide and rule from England. THANK YOU ALL.
@Tom Waller Actually, most Irish people with a functioning brain would prefer that Scotland becomes independent before there is a 'Border Poll' in Northern Ireland(NI). The reasoning here is that while the NI Unionists claim to be loyal to Britain, and equally claim to be 'British', the reality is that nearly all their emotional links, family etc, are to Scotland within the Union. A Scotland which had voted for independence would oblige NI Unionists to do something they have never done; a serious period of existential thinking about who they are, what they are loyal to, and where do their rational future interests lie.... In reality, I don't think that very many DUP party members would actually leave NI for Scotland in the event of a Border Poll result in favour of Irish Unity. But it would probably better for Scots to get their independence referendum done and dusted so that any who do so decide will not be a barrier to Scottish independence....
@@gloin10 I don’t see anyone in Scotland who wants independence. I only see the SPD, who pretend to be nationalists, but who are in FACT Globalists, who would gladly sell their countrymen down the river to the EU.
Think you might be disappointed. Westminster would have to approve another Indy referendum and that just isn't going to happen under this regime. You can hold a vote like the Catalans did, but that was ruled unconstitutional and they are still part of Spain. Ireland is better placed as it's allowed under fairly vague terms in the good Friday agreement. But that isn't likely to happen before 2030s in my humble opinion.
Great analysis. However, the 2 ‘positives’ of Brexit (not so xenophobic attitude to none-eu immigration, no deregulation of financial sector) are just things that havn’t gone AS BADLY as predicted.Also, I would disagree with these points - The Tories are making it very hard to employ from anywhere from outside the U.K., whilst at the same time stoking hatred of asylum seekers - or as they put it - ‘illegal immigrants’ - constantly pushing the rwanda scheme and ‘small boats’ issues. Also, they are transfixed in a ‘bonfire of eu regulations’ - they want to lower standards across all sectors - which will make it harder to sell goods outside the U.K. and see the financial sector relocate from the city, which is slowly but surely happening.
This is a great analysis. However, as at 24:18 there is a flaw in the logic of thinking that the UK apparent "embrace" of non-EU migrants signifies a lack of xenophobia or nationalism. Brexit was, in many of the leading groups, a plan to displace Europeans with a cheaper and a more politically subservient (less empowered)contingent in the labour market. Brexit, at least in part, became part of a Tory strategy that, by hook or by crook, was determined to break Labour rights and protections and to undermine the unions and to effectively "gerrymander" the constituency to the electoral advantage of the Conservative Party.
'Brexit was, in many of the leading groups, a plan to displace Europeans with a cheaper and a more politically subservient (less empowered)contingent in the labour market.' Yes, exactly. But given how many brexiters voted to leave based on racism against people of brown skin, there is going to be another huge upset to some. It's not going to be pretty when the racist yobs find they are being surrounded by those they hate.
Not for another 25-40 years. The UK has practically destroyed any good will they had. Basically it will take time to even think about some sort friendly relation with the EU.
Brexit has hardly started. Its confusing why people think the consequences of brexit and its trends can be seen after only a few years. Yes, there are industries that will be impacted immediately, but for the overall economy and industry will take a long time. For some industries, including the finance sector, we still have equivalence agreements which will eventually expire. More importantly, partnerships, contracts and supply chains for large companies take many years to change but they will. Until now the UK leadership has been too afraid to deregulate, but once they do, then I think we'll quickly see how things break down between the EU and UK. I expect this "lecture" will be updated a few times in the years to come.
It is true that people voted for non economic reasons but it should be noted that they were assured by the Leave camp that there would be no economic down sides. People voted in a tribal manner where they picked one side or the other and ignored the warnings that came from the remain side.
@Chris Worthman You are right...and Brexit is a rejection of racism and bigotry. It's a rejection of giving the whitest, wealthiest and most Christian nations privileges over and above others across the world. Can you justify to anyone why someone with great skills from Botswana should have to compete on an unfair basis to come to the UK to work compared to a Belgian? From my perspective, a country has a moral responsibility to ensure genuine work and housing opportunities when people uproot their lives, leaving home family and friends, to go to work in another country. You need to be able to manage the pace of immigration and ensure your housing market, labour market, infrastructure and public services can manage and retain quality and capacity. To do that you must be able to plan, and having a completely open policy makes that incredibly difficult. It should be noted that in 2004, the UK, Ireland and Sweden were the only EU countries that opened up immediately and in full. Germany by contrast remained closed for the full 7 years it was allowed to, and all other countries had policies like capped numbers. Germany clearly understood the difficulties and secured its position, as did others. The UK took the brunt of large scale immigration as the largest economy that was an option and immigration during those 7 years was not broadly shared and distributed across the rest of the EU economies. It is also the case that the UK never pursued making people leave if they had no work within 12 weeks. In spite of all this, the UK is somehow uniquely called xenophobic, racist and bigoted, yet noone says that Germany was xenophobic, racist and bigoted for its stance on immigration post 2004 for the full 7 years! Can you explain that? When the UK asked for some adjustments after the impacts of such as huge open policy, the EU response was very unsupportive, despite most countries having taken very strong positions in the first 7 years post 2004. It's worth noting that in the last 20 years, Germany's population has only risen by around 3 million. In the UK, it has risen by over 7 million which is equivalent to the entire population of Bulgaria, or Denmark plus Estonia. Bulgaria is the poorest state in the EU and has had it's working age population decimated since joining the EU. Bulgaria and Lithuania are the fastest shrinking countries in the world and it is making it impossible to grow their economies. Bulgaria had a population of 9 million at the end of the 80s and less than 7 million at the end of 2018, and it has continued to fall. What is your moral position in that? When you rob a nation of its working population, its youth...what happens then? What happens to the elderly? How is infrastructure grown and public services maintained? If immigration is economically good then presumably you agree that losing up to 25% of your working population is highly detrimental and bad? It's odd how we talk so much about the positives of immigration and are oddly silent about the damage it can do to the countries that have enormous loss of people. Perhaps we should be asking if the EU vision on the free movement of 'labour stocks' really is beneficial equally for all EU members, or is it just good for some? Germany thought it was bad news to have too many incoming, and clearly it's bad news for Bulgaria to have so many outgoing. Let's have a really sensible conversation that really does look at who benefits and who suffers and how and why and then formulate some policies that achieve a better overall outcome.
The UK and EU has had no growth for decades because of EU policies. Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger. Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half. The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi. The EU is a dismal failure just look at the facts and figures !
People will never vote for honest people like him. He just tells the truth even if it hurts. BTW, voting not based on the facts is not a single country issue.
The erosion of globalisation is in my view, only a few anxious steps backwards, the continuing enlightenment of humanity makes it a mid to long term certainty.
Historically speaking, globalisation s yet to cease since one Neolithic tribe discovered another. It will keep going. It is constantly happening, not in a state of being (in this case being globalised as such) but in a constant state of becoming. Whether we like it or not, the most successful social units have been the ones that have embraced it and taken its opportunities.
Funny how the English who did more to accelerate globalism than any other singular country think they can escape it's implications and the stupidity behind thinking they can opt out?
You can't erode it. It's always happened, and it will continue. Read "Globalization: A Very Short Introduction" by Manfred Steger. From when Man as a species first evolved, different groups have migrated to different areas of our planet. And once we developed civilisation and money, both have been moving across the planet. This is just our stage of globalisation facilitated by digital and mechanical technologies, instead of sailboats and gold coins. And since developing late stage capitalism, it is more efficient and power is siphoned away from nation states to those who control markets. Merchants and businessmen, not warlords or kings rule the world now, and nation states are just jurisdictions that are profitable or not. Instead of a financial empire being limited to a particular country, it can now be global, and politicians are virtually employees of corporations and plutocrats. Nation is now less important than it has been for centuries. If your first language wasn't English, you would have probably noticed sooner. But when several corporations have market valuations bigger than countries, this is the globalisation you understand. And that isn't going to change anytime soon. Being adapted by capitalism for its own ends it will, just morph into another form. The profit incentive is king. It always has been, and now even more profit can be made by offshoring, it will remain. Look at the USA, with only 2 countries bordering it's mainland. And what does it do? It offshores the less valuable manufacturing to Canada and Mexico, whilst keeping the higher value processes at home. It keeps labour costs down in the US, by shaping the labour laws to suit corporations and not employees. The idea that they would bring these businesses back into the US is folly, as profit is the deal breaker. Likewise, if you live in a developed country, your government is surpressing wage growth in every which way they can, because their donors are the corporations who would lose out if they had to increase wages, because of less profit. And American and British workers can get by on $150 USD a month, whereas a Chinese worker can get by on that, even though thats for a 60 hour work week. So, whilst they may shorten those vulnerable global supply lines to be from closer places, they will not bring those jobs back home, because prices would have to go up to afford to pay the going rate at home. They are going to go up anyway to change the supply lines, but they won't go up as much as if they came back to the US or the UK. So... Its not going to happen in any significant amount.
2 роки тому+2
It is funny watching him trying to explain how the US and england are both obsolete.
Brexit only exists because it allows the English to oppose the EU. Now that they are out of the EU, this argument falls away. That’s what we see now, a one-issue party that no longer has an issue and is desperately looking for a solution that doesn't exist. Except the inevitable and go on with life. And make the best of a bad situation. Don’t try to drag everyone else down with you, it will end very messy.
In 2016 I thought Brexit is just a lever to get more cherries. To my surprise they really did it. I would just just have said, yeah an opinion poll, 50:50 more or less, we cannot decide for generations based on that. But, … they are British.
Britain had a business model that grew over years like a tree. And now you have a self-inflicted drought. You will lose leaves and limbs and your tree will struggle bearing fruit.
It was not because of the economy of all UK people. Only for some. You can easily spot them: extrem wealthy and they don’t rely on the Blue Passport only.
'We were sending out search parties for people': Former Labour Cabinet Minister Peter Mandelson has admitted that his party actively encouraged immigration to the UK while in government
Yes. That’s the problem with left wing parties. They’ve abandoned the European working class. They now count on the minorities: LGBT, immigrants, ecologists, feminists… that’s why the European working class now votes for far right parties. It’s a tragedy for the social democracy.
I don't think the Current Right Wing UK government can accept EFTA (because UK is becoming Authoritarian and anti Human Rights.) I don't believe you can seperate Human Rights and economics. Currently the UK Government is removing Human Right's from it's citizens. Anti Democracy rules! They are just starting this week!
@@MrVampireBill So the economy crashed did it? So 500,000 jobs were lost, were they? So exports to the EU tanked, did they? So house prices crashed, did they? So planes were grounded, were they? So the UK entered a long deep recession after BREXIT, did it? So diabetics died due to lack of Insulin, did they? Have another go old son but this time make it convincing !
“Singapore on the Thames” was always such a joke. First Singapore’s massive private client business is a result of their geography. They are a stable Asian democracy with very strong rule of law and property rights in the middle of a very large SE Asia with poor distribution of wealth and poor rule of law. So all the regional wealth funnels into Singapore from Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand. Second it’s predominantly ethnic Chinese, mandarin speaking Chinese, yet it’s part of the US security alliance. So for the very wealthiest Chinese, it’s the perfect “Plan B”. They can send their children to school there, buy property, squirrel away assets, even get passports, so that if thing go off the rails in China, they have a solid pathway to safety and wealth retention in Singapore. How does London replicate that? With Russians? With Arabs? In xenophobic England?
"Is tolerating smuggling the only way to make brexit work?". If you know any of Cornish history, smuggling certainly prevented a lot of people from starving.
Economists say the more open an economy is to immigration, the better the skills of workers and the better the outcome will be. This is probably true. However, individual workers fear losing their jobs in competition with immigrants if immigration continues unchecked. This is also an economic reason - for Brexit.
People voted for Brexit, IMHO, largely because their jobs don’t pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living. It’s the same reason all over the world. The first clue that this Posen fella doesn’t understand this is when he implied that a 6% increase in food prices isn’t that bad. For so many people living hand to mouth in this country this is a devastating blow, this on top of that they are turning down the heat and wearing warmer clothes in their own houses so that they can afford to eat. Brexit was them flipping the bird at the system as was Trump. I think Posen is dead wrong that those Trump voters were “largely unaffected” by the economics. Wasn’t there recently a study that found that half of Americans would not be able to handle missing their next paycheque? I bet a lot of those “half” were the people Posen wrote off as “unaffected”.
Brexit isn't the solution to that problem, the Tories are the problem. But England mindlessly keeps voting against their own interests, Brexit and Tories will just make the cost of living worse.
Everyone I know voted for Brexit because of xenophobic racism, fueled by the right wing of the Tory Party and UKIP. Ignorant comments such as voting for Brexit to ''keep people from Pakistan and India out of the country'' were plentiful.
@Dave Publiday "People voted for Brexit, IMHO, largely because their jobs don’t pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living"? Now, please tell us all HOW leaving the EU will "...pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living"? I'll wait.....
You misunderstand. I think Brexit was a profoundly bad idea. I loved his characterization of it being a “trade war against themselves”. I’m just pointing out why it happened. I’m flummoxed that this guy seems to be so incredibly well informed, yet seems to miss this point, and seems to be completely blind to the realities of the lives of the bottom 30%. Three in 10 people in the UK can not afford a “minimum standard of living”, and this guy shrugs off a 6% increase in food prices?‽! The pro-Brexit propaganda tapped into this frustration expertly, as did Trump’s campaign.
That depends on the EU willing to have the UK joining again. Which would probably need a referendum overwhelmingly in favour of joining, because: "well, could you make up your mind please?"
@@jansix4287 I hope you have not factored in Ukraine with that statement, we all know why the nazis plus merkel wanted Ukraine. The Germans couldn’t feed themselves.
Everybody knows that the reason England has the COL crisis is because of Brexit. Inequality? Brexit. High prices on food? Brexit. High prices on drinks? Brexit. High prices on petrol ? Brexit. High prices on energy bills? Brexit. I could go on …
@@garrywillits8025 Are you sure it’s not the government having to borrow money and raise taxes to pay off the covid bill,the rise in gas and electric is down to greedy utilities companies taking advantage and the government spending money aiding Ukraine,their are shortages because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine wheat/barley and sunflower oil adding to the price increase,the world is not in a happy place at moment and it doesn’t help with an increasing world population.
i don't understand why Brexiters cannot be reasonable and just say: "There is a very high probability that Brexit has resulted in a sub-optimum economic situation for the UK, although this may change in the future". Is this so hard to say?
All this middle class outrage against brexit voters is hilarious,,now you know how we felt stuck in the EU with no say In how it,s decisions were made ,,totally hilarious
@@zam1007 yes, 29 seats to the brexit party in may 2019 european elections ,Lib Dems 16,Labour 10,Greens 7 seats(good result),Tories a pitiful 4, SNP 3, welsh and DUP 1 each, 2019 was the strangest year I,ve ever encountered in british politics ,,The EU must have thought we,d gone stark raving mad lol
@@marcperrett662 You had representation and say in the decisions through the EU parliament. If your representatives were not up to par then it would have been wise to take it up with them. You were not hostages. Anyway, now you're "free", so.....enjoy?😉
So many of Adam Posen predictions about the UK / North Atlantic and Europe from 1992, 1997, 2012, Brexit and Covid 19 havemissedtargets. Sorry but just dated. I would though love to read an assessment of Europe from Posen experience over 30 plus years.
Ev production requires large factories , not coming here is the likely outcome and therefore the death nail in the uk car industry as the factories close . Honda , Toyota , Nissan will all leave soon as there ev sales increase and their ice sales drop off a cliff. Worse case for these companies is ice sales drop off a cliff and ev sales don’t improve fast enough which in the case of Honda and Toyota seems virtually inevitable. French owned companies such Vauxhall’s as part of the larger merged group may stay if ev sales hold up or increase. Brexit is like a few extra nails to the coffin of British manufacturing. We will end up like Norway buying all motor vehicles from outside uk. The knock on effect of this industry for the British economy will reduce government income significantly for decades engineers will go abroad and connected industries will wither. Example F1 motorsport already in a dilemma . Energy diversification may be a saviour for some of the economy but brexit was sold on promise to those who knew little of trade but many of them will be those who get the full force of the decision they made on them and their children. A little country with a former empire will see that those outside and also inside the uk have long memories and will take the opportunity they have been given to squeeze the uk dry. Better to be part of a large team than a much smaller team which has little clout.
Erm, how long since Brexit? There will be a lot of years yet before this is worked out and we see a benefit. We were part of the gravy train for a hell of a long time! Also what many aren't acknowledging is that Brexit wasn't about money to most people, it was far more important than that. There is a much bigger picture than GDP results and growth charts. Won't matter soon anyway as the "experts" have pumped so much money into the world banks making most currency a lot less, a depression is about to hit us all. Well done the "experts"
How about the issue of national sovereignty - the right to govern one's self and trade freely without having to submit to a foreign parliament. We sell and buy from China but we do not share a parliament. Brexit was the right decision.
However, the speaker made a valid point. As someone who has a deep regard for England, I recognize countries do not operate in a vacuum. The U.S will exert pressure on Britain citing security concerns -- such as the 5G infrastructure England "was planning" to purchase from China. I believe that's no longer the case.
As the owner of an engineering firm for me, dealing with Europe simply means buying Chinese made materials from a second party, carrying out X amount of operations and then sending it back to within the EU. The one common economy that always benefits is the Chinese
@@VincentRE79 We were trading giving 30 days credit and 90 days to some longer term (20+ years) customers. Now we have payment before dispatch, in doing so the product becomes the property of an entity within the EU. That changes how burocrats deal with the shipment. Untill then there seemed to be problems with paper work
I had this running in the background and could only hear but not see what was going on. After a while I thought to myself, the speaker must be one of The Chosen Ones, based on the spin. Eventually, I get to see that here we have Adam Posen. Well, well, well. I must be a mind reader.
It was an economic decision, but only by a very small part of the UK people. To the others it was sold as a „good feeling“. Guess who’s paying the bill.
@@fromgermany271 Surely questions of national identity are emotional rather than based on economics? If it was somehow proven that Canada would become richer by becoming America's 51st state, they would refuse for emotional reasons Most people who want independence for Scotland do so for emotional reasons, not economic ones, etc....
For returning to the UK to full democracy was worth brexit alone. We are now the only genuine fully democratic sovereign country in the whole of western Europe. That includes Norway and Switzerland as they are eu rule takers. 70 trade deals, AUKUS, Response to Ukraine and the NHS getting loads more money. Please google NHS annual spending and you will see it is getting more than the figure on the side of the bus.
So the Upshot is we are not world leading racists after leaving The EU. And we are not going to be as attractive to the US as Mexico because of lack of cheap labour was wrong about financial services collapsing with a race to the bottom and the pound didn't suffer as big a drop as he thought America suffering higher inflation. And he wants us to go back to the Blair Brown policies. I can see how much he really loves this country.
I don't understand the significance of foreign investment as presented. Germany is a big exporter of capital, i.e. does a lot of foreign investment. The UK is a big importer of capital, i.e. needs lots of foreign money to keep going. Why is it a positive indicator to be dependent on foreign money???
Because it is being spent in the UK? Which means that some of it ends up in British citizens' pockets, presumably in return for something we are good at. In return, the foreign direct investment receives a better return on capital than investing elsewhere. The UK isn't borrowing the money, it's being given it, with the understanding that they will do something useful with it and some day pay it back with dividends. This is capitalism 101.
@@SchnuckySchuster The UK is the 7th largest manufacturing country in the world. The world largest financial centre and service industry, and is predicted to overtake Germany as Europes largest economy.
Overall great stuff but the idea right at the end that Leave voters (in Wales) did so knowingly, i.e. that they were well-informed and aware that it would be greatly against their own interests economically but they prioritised immigration or whatever, is extremely naive. Where on earth do economists think ordinary people get their information from? Perhaps some of them have never read a British tabloid or watched British TV? And never mind the tabloid level nonsense and lies - even the Guardian's economics editor was (and still is, AFAIK) pro-Brexit!
@@bargepoled whos that then. Get a job anywhere now. Screamin out for workers everywhere. Payin good money too. Youll never see it that way tho will you.
@@Andy-ub3ub And you are only thinking of yourself. What about other people or are you just selfish and only consider your own personal experience and situation? How about the fishermen? Promised everything they now can't afford to export their goods to the EU. The world doesn't revolve around you.
@@Andy-ub3ub I have a job. I'm getting on with life. That entails thinking about other people not just myself. That's what adults do. Grow up yourself. Only kids think about themselves. You are a child, only concerned with yourself. You are probably too thick to understand these concepts. Which is why you work on building sites. Not exactly the most intelligent people in the world..
These guys are still using an out-dated inapplicable paradigm. UK Parliament is a monopoly currency issuer, even when in the EU, so they have no revenue constraint and can _choose_ full employment without inflation. They simply choose not to, whether it is out of ignorance or malevolence towards the working class. Monetarism is a failed paradigm. For a currency monopolist fiscal policy is sufficient to drive full employment with price stability. You do not need FDI. Your exports are the price you pay to get cheaper imports.
Financial Capitalism manipulation is no substitute for appropriate research and technical capabilities. Time to switch back to the Boffin era if histories are always the chosen way.
Still waiting for Patrick Minford's presentation on how well the UK economy & business is doing post Brexit..... waiting...... waiting ... still waiting 🤔
Haha, better waiting for the second coming, that will come first for sure
@Paul Copsey
"Still waiting for Patrick Minford's presentation on how well the UK economy & business is doing post Brexit..... waiting...... waiting ... still waiting"?
HOW long can you hold your breath?
Don't hold your breath!
Liz truss implemented his vision. Cut tax, cut taxes… crash the pound.
To be fair Minford is spot on with what he said in the televised parliamentary select committee. He said Brexit would destroy the car industry in the UK. OK, so far the government has given Nissan billions in Brexit bribes to stay since leaving but the rest have certainly started leaving. He said UK farming and fishing would be destroyed and he and fellow Tory and Brexit voters are successfully achieving that. The other main area he said was heavy engineering and again British Industries in that area are closing or moving abroad.
"if you run a trade war with yourself, bad things happen"
A great synopsis.
Good to hear such a balanced sober analysis.
yeah but
if you shoot your right foot
your left foot wont feel it QED
lol
@@johncapo2843 if you flood the market with cheap foriegn itinerent labour indiginous workers wages will go down.
Ye gods. Did you learn nothing from corbyn?
@@johncapo2843 youve obviously never done a hard days work in your life.
Read jeremy corbyn and why he was against european expansion.
He believed it would bring down wages. And it did. Thats why we left.
Learn about subjects from a working class point of view before you start geytin all champagne socialist on eveypne.
@@johncapo2843 the UK shot both feet
The trade war was started by the EU because it didn't take rejection well and it had to make its point... which turned out to be ' The EU is a nasty regime' thank god for Brexit.
Straight talk backed up by numbers. Thank you.
Probably about as reliable as COVID numbers.
"numbers"
For example in the first slide: the values given are in percent and the subject is year over year growth of the sum of imports and exports compared to GDP.
That's three variables and we are only looking at the delta and then express that as a percentage.
Let that sink in for a minute before we look at the absolute numbers posted on the website and compare them individually.
Italy's GDP in 2017.Q1 was 1717B, exports 529B, imports 476B
UK's GDP in 2017.Q1 (converted to EUR with 0.88 rate) was 2.356B, exports 705B, imports 735B
Italy's GDP in 2021.Q4 was 1807B, exports 612B, imports 599B
UK GDP in 2021.Q4 (converted to EUR with 0.86 rate) was 2798B, exports 787B, imports 816B
Italy gained 90B in GDP, 82B in exports and 123B in imports. In percentages that's +5.26 GDP, +15.62 exports, +25.9 imports.
UK gained 442B in GDP, 82B in exports and 81B in imports. Again in percentages +18.76 GDP, +11.64 exports, +11.02 imports.
So yeah, the UK gained five times the GDP increase of Italy (similar to Germany's 462B gain in the same period), similar exports and less imports.
Let's have a quick peek on the other leader, Japan: -3.6% GDP (yep, negative), +7.4% exports, +19.74% imports.
The idea here suggest that GDP doesn't matter as long as your exports and imports are higher.
A similar story with the immigration numbers: 145000 EU-born people left the UK from 2018 to 2021. That's 4.13% of the total EU-born population in the UK and 0.22 of the total population.
Etc.
Did Brexit have impact on exports, imports and immigration? Yeah, almost as if that was obvious from leaving the free trade and immigration block of the EU.
Excellent synopsis. I’ve been waiting to hear such a comprehensive & balanced talk. Thanks
I’ve been waiting for this talk. Adam Posen is a great economist of international trade. He always starts with trying to find good sources of data and should be listened to.
the only great economist is a dead one
Where is the data of China? He strikes me as a liberal globalist! What comes first - citizenry or economics? Government owes it's existence to its citizens so it follows it's FIRST priority is to its citizens NOT ACCOMMODATING ECONOMIC MIGRANTS AT THE EXPENSE OF ITS CITIZENS!
Economics is not provable science but I must say there are quite a few accepted models set over the decades and Adam really explain how Brexit relate to those and how now the figures proves the models right. Great speech.
@@larstenfaelt1859 well maybe that’s a Brexit benefit then 😄
24:30 Posen says he worried needlessly that Britain would "race to the bottom" in financial services and standards in order to attract investment. Now that he's seen Truss and Kwarteng in action, is he worried again?
great speaker, always a pleasure to learn from him!
I think this sentence by Nick Clegg from many years ago describing (some) of his countrymen includes everything regarding the reason for brexit - " ..a misplaced sense of superiority, sustained by delusions of grandeur and a tenacious obsession with the last war..".
The level of ego behind this statement is amazing
@@tonymoulson1194 , no I don't think so.
Next time you talking to sumone with whom you disagree tell them what there thinking and see how they react
@@hurri7720
Well go away and have another think !
@@tonymoulson1194 pray tell us where he is wrong?
I can never have enough of experts 👍
I qualified in Trade Economics and GATT (before WTO) in 1982. I will tell you that Adam Posen is the best economist I have seen speak on Brexit. The future is bleak we will have inflation and a shrinking economy for many years to come. We are also experiencing a skills and brain drain to europe america canada australia etc etc as they snap up our best people.
You clearly voted Remain in 2016 and are unable to see anything positive about Brexit.
@@VincentRE79 Hi Vincent, Could you list all the positives for me. Thanks Steve.
@@sigma-zero This is far too early to list any positives or negatives as we only fully left the EU at the end of 2020 and are still dealing with the effects of Covid and the invasion of Ukraine. You should know as an economist that making economic predictions is a waste of time unless you have a very reliable crystal ball. Nearly every economist predicted after the pandemic there would be a huge economic boom due to pent up demand but look at the global situation at the moment. The government also need to help make Brexit a success by cutting Corporation tax rates to encourage inward investment rather than raising them to 25%.
@@VincentRE79 Hi Vincent, Just a couple of points, the reason we do economic forecasting is so investors and governments can plan ahead and for example build infrastructure to meet demand. Economic planning is far from perfect but what we do is look historically to see the future. It took us 13 years to join the eu which we did in 1972 but the effects of it did not appear until the mid eighties. In between we were in such a poor state we were borrowing from the IMF. We are now back in the 70's with high inflation, poor trade, strikes etc. Apart from Russia we are the worst economy in the G7 and predicted to stay like that. To answer the corporation tax issue, large corporations/investors are not concerned with tax as they move money round the world to avoid it. The war covid etc makes no difference to the fact that we have left the single market which is the reason so much investment came to the uk over the past 40years. Good luck with Brexit but I think you will find flogging a dead horse will just not work. Regards Steve
@@sigma-zero Steve, firstly I would say the reason our economy recovered in the mid 80's was mainly down to the Thatcher reforms not our EEC membership. Large corporations are attracted by low corporation tax rates, just look at the example of Ireland for this and it's 12.5% rate. Most people who voted Brexit were aware there would be an economic hit but took other issues into account like myself. This "Back to the 70's" cliche seems to get lazily rolled out every so often by the media, then the BOE base rate hit 17% and the CPI was 25%. 50% of workers were members of unions in the 1970's now 24% and falling. Things are nothing like the 70's at all really. Membership of the Single Market also meant free movement and the electorate made their decision.
The conclusion ?? Brexit for UK was a huge idiocy !|!
I needed this talk so thank you 🙏 Adam Posen
The shrinking of the triangle of trade is hugely informative.
It captures succinctly all the primary and secondary direct effects of the post Brexit reality.
Facts and analysis define that economic “gravity” exists and ranks over mass emotions and ideology. As the saying goes “hope is not a plan”. Brexit was pure hope and never had a plan. Not even a hopeful one.
Brexshit was a plan
by a man
Who was so intelligent he did not even know or understand how British economey, politics, international relations and international money markets worked.
We managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
This is a triumph. I'm making a note here, huge success!
This is a very good speech. Funnily enough the main thing I'd take issue with is Posen's use of the word "positives" regarding Brexit. Yes, it is a positive thing that we've not deregulated the City of London but that's not a positive of Brexit, it's just a potential Brexit issue that didn't come to pass. The City wasn't going to be deregulated had we stayed in the EU. And the same applies for non-EU migration. I had no concerns this would fall, despite Brexit we're clearly still an attractive place to come to for much of the world. We had full control of it before and still do.
On the topic of Brexit, Adam Posen (AP) presents by far the most clear and impartial digest.
As AP says, Britons need to realise that their country is no longer the heart of an empire. Notwithstanding their delusions of grandeur, the EU will not allow Britain to lead everyone else. And Britain will risk becoming even more inconsequential if they insist on trying to defy gravity in the new fragmented world.
That was bourne out by 1 female British politician Ms Braverman I think when she said that it was time to make Ireland go hungry again ( A direct reference to the Genocide that the British inflicted on Ireland in 19th Century in order to try and make its writ run) and that Ireland should know its place.
The delusion of Grandeur that the British have know no bounds.
Thank you to everybody involved. My thoughts are that the trade & FDI numbers speak for themselves, and they were predicted and are incontrovertible, but as yet the Govt. does not acknowledge them as being Brexit related. Much responsibility now rests with the UK press to ensure the Govt. is accountable & transparent. Big job at a difficult time.
The UK press? Hahahaha, propaganda at its best and worst. No democracy here and never has been. U K is a has-been cubtry.
Sadly last night all the coverage I saw was repeating the line after the Queens speech that Brexit was going to be the solution to our cost of living crisis. No journalist I saw challenged this bald faced assertion because Brexit is now seen as taboo or something where by broadcasters worry about offending those that are invested as seeing it as a patriotic miracle. I didn't see Newsnight or C4 news, but neither do most viewers and soon they won't be able to after policies outlined in the same speech that will ultimately remove the last vestiges of quality journalism .
@@garrywillits8025 I love it because rhe sheeple-infested plague Island deserves everything it gets, Brittunculi all! Schadenfreude rules ok!
@@garrywillits8025 I think it is true that much of whats on news nowadays is just Govt narrative and on those rare occasions a minister is available and asked a searching question they just avoid it and talk about whatever suits their agenda. Propaganda, misinformation & disinformation is substituted for news. The Govt. has far too much influence on the media. The media is emasculated because the Govt. controls the purse strings.
They would have to go against the wishes of their owners and shareholders to do that.
An excellent presentation. Just a comment about Wales; a study carried out by Oxford University concluded that the majority for pro-Brexit came about only because many English people had bought property in Wales and moved there, as prices were cheaper than in England.
And I thought you remainders were all for free movement ..LOL.
@@mikemines2931 not too bright are we. Nobody said that the English moving to Wales was a problem, just an observation as to why it made it appear that the Welsh wanted Brexit when it was clearly not in their interest. It made no difference to the outcome so why would we care about that anyway. You simple folk are so easily stirred into looking for weaknesses but only exposing your own.
@@tonycook7679 So sorry, Ford measured my IQ to be 148. It was a stipulation of joining their robotic vision research dept to have a test. Sorry if I've not come up to your standard. The Welsh off the English taxpayer bring it on say I ditto Scotland.
@@mikemines2931 high IQ means you're intelligent, not that you're smart. Just because you have a talent doesn't mean you're producing any good result. You not knowing the difference basically proves the point that you're not smart.
@@nikoladd Go and troll your mother.
As an Irish-American what he says is true, most Americans sympathize with Ireland
We need this analysis now more than ever. We need information from experts, from people that know things and have arguments that make sense.
its project FEAR again!
Meanwhile northern ireland who has access to eu market due to the protocol the dup approved but now want scrapped is doing fine economically.
Not true sadly. By being forced to source its goods from the more expensive Irish Republic instead of the cheaper GB, NI inflation is likely to be worse. And most of the apparent increase in NI to RoI trade flows is simply rerouting of England-to-RoI trade via Larne/Belfast. It has only marginal benefit to NI. Business confidence is lowest in NI of all the UK regions - that does not suggest NI is doing “fine economically”.
The UK has lots of news sources that shine harsh lights on the government of the day - at present the Tories are well challenged by the Ch4, BBC, Guardian etc. whereas Ireland suffers from a more nationalisitic form of journalism that makes the Irish feel better about themselves rather than informing them (why for instance does the Irish press focus on Ireland’s GDP but never its GNP? In a normal country they’d be equivalent, but in a corporate tax haven they are different - aren’t the Irish people entitled to know about this?). Hence Daithi thinks the NI protocol is good for NI. It COULD be good but would require the “Green Channel” for GB-to-NI trade that the EU/Irish are refusing. Without this there will be no NI executive and thus the protocol, which the EU still claims is to protect the GFA, is in fact the principal reason the GFA institutions are suspended. If only RTE and the Irish Times etc were more honest about this then the Irish people might be more inclined to find a half-way accommodation that suits everyone and will thus be stable.
So Yes, Brexit shook the NI snow-globe up, but it was the EU/RoI’s choice to not let things settle sensibly again that has taken us where we are. Enda Kenny tried, to his credit, but everyone since has wanted to make ideological gains at NI’s expense.
@@dennismoore2894 nope. Economic growth in NI is 1.4%. In the rest of the UK its a recession.
@@bargepoled in Q1, output was +0.8% in the UK but only +0.4% in NI despite the NIP. Yes we are all about to go into recession and NI’s large public sector will insulate it on the way into recession (though be a drag on the way back out). Q2 isn’t out yet so how confident are you about 1.4%?
@@dennismoore2894 pretty confident.
The Office of National Statistics found that Northern Ireland’s gross domestic product grew 1.4 percent in the July-September quarter of 2021, compared with gains of 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent in Scotland and England, respectively. Economic activity in Wales shrank 0.3 percent over the same quarter.
I may have mixed up economic growth with GDP but the point still stands. NI is doing way better than the rest of the UK.
Economic analysis explicitly credited Northern Ireland’s continued access to barrier-free trade with the 27-nation EU as a key driver.
That picture is reinforced by monthly reports from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office, which has documented a string of record-high trade figures between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland since the January 2021 launch of post-Brexit trade rules.
@@bargepoled in fairness your data is a year out of date. The most recent data suggests that NI is far from doing “way better than the rest of the UK” - it is growing more slowly and business confidence is amongst the lowest in the UK - and that is despite the protocol. If you sincerely cared about NI you would support the protocol “green channel” reforms HMG are having to push through as this will a) permit the restoration of the GFA institutions and b) allow NI businesses & households to import freely & more cheaply from its biggest market (GB). This will benefit NI Nationalists & Unionists equally. And Irish trade figures are part of the problem I pointed out in the first place. They misrepresent GB trade diversion via NI as somehow being beneficial to NI.
Very interesting presentation. Agreed largely with what Mr Posen said. However, It's just been announced that UK government is planning to reform financial services in the UK. Part of which is relaxing constraints on how much capital they need to hold. So the race to the bottom may yet happen, with a consequent financial crash. Marvellous!
You are correct, companies here in Ireland are seeing a huge increase in job applications from Uk citizens and it’s not just professional positions it’s across the board applications.
There are many mines still left to go off.
I doubt the UK (read england) will recover in my lifetime.
@@nicholasflynn5376
Indeed.
There has been a noticeable increase in GB/UK reg plates on the roads here, and an equally noticeable increase in English accents in bars and shops.
On top of the Ukrainian refugees, we have a flood of Brixit refugees....
Posen was amongst the loudest doomsayers predicting Brexit apocolypse - clearly, he believes we've forgotten that and it's now safe to put his head above the paraphet. As you might expect from an economist, his lens remains economic - he, in common with his ilk, fails to - or won't - consider voters were not driven by economics of leaving the EU. Many of those voters resided in areas turned into east Europe-on-sea. They also were living the effects of real wage reversion over 20 years. Now, I see many Polish/Romanian shops shuttered - some have even been turned back to English convenience shops run by Asians 😄 Oh wait...Posen calls that racism! Yes, we have strikes back - sure, disruptive to every day life but a sign that wage rebalancing is starting - people no longer have to eat the shit of falling wages while their masters enjoy inflated profits because theirs a sub-min wage eastern European immigrant waiting to take their job if they dare ask for 'more'. There's a reason economists don't rule the world - they're ALWAYS FUCKING WRONG! Listen to this waffling part- he ascribes the non-realisation of his doom mongering to the positive action of others - implication: "they must have listened to my warnings"
A brilliant, entertaining, truthfully unbiased analysis of Brexit so far and where Brexit may lead in the future. Basically the potential dangers far outweigh potential gains.....but a lot will depend on the course taken by UK leadership. So far things aren't looking good, with political dogma possibly the biggest risk to a 'successful' Brexit.
PS A 'successful' Brexit is probably one that is NOT catastrophic for the economy.
UnbiSed my arse
@@PosterPeteTheBish So you have 'UnbiSed' tattooed on your posterior!! Very interesting but hardly relevant
Clueless. "Potential gains" = "sunlit uplands" 😂😂😂
Brexit = the single biggest act of self harm ever !
Before the Withdrawal Agreement was finalised between the UK and EU, the member states of EFTA agreed not to consider an application from the UK as it would be disproportionately large and disruptive to good trading relationships. Consequently, the future relationship of the UK with the EU would appear to be either convergence towards the latter, or a withering of the UK economy on the vine.
Rejoining any EU trading body will never happen. The tory govt are on a deliberate divergence in their laws and standards. It will take more than a generation to see any recovery. But recovery isn't even the plan, only an authoritarian regime with undereducated, scared and hungry citizens. It's going to get dark.
The part on the absence of a nationalist anti-immigration policy has not aged well thanks to Priti Patel's Rwanda policy. And even if it had aged well, that is not a positive, but just the absence of something negative.
Would you welcome being small ethnic minority in your country in exchange for the economic graph to go up a bit?
So much for 'Global' Britain.
how come there isn't a video telling us about the benefits of Brexit?
can it be because there aren't any??
excellent video.
Ask your bookkeeper. The only known benefits of Brexit are in money laundering and tax evasion. And if you have connections with the current UK government.
@@Cornu341
That’s also the only reason.
Informative and interesting thank you but as a resident of the UK I have to disagree strongly with the idea that brexit hasn't been accompanied by / carried along by an extremely xenophobic wave
I agree Rob.
Brexit is nothing more than a xenophobic project by bigots and idiots. However we’re about to get an influx of Indians as our prize. Well done lads.
No; although not all people who voted for Brexit were xenophobes or racists, but all racists and xenophobes did vote for Brexit. If you read Timothy Snyder's "20 Lessons on Tyranny from the 20th Century," you will see how easy it is to choke off the moral imagination in people, and enable them to become fellow travellers that facilitates the wrongdoing of others. Fear and anger as outrage, are powerful levers on the psyche. That's why this regime is stoking the fires of division, othering and scapegoating minorities, and normalising callousness and ignorance. It happened elsewhere in the 20th century, and its happening here, in the US and Russia too. The game is being played to secure power, and these are the tools.
The thing is, I resented immigration before Brexit. Brexit doesn't make me *more* xenophobic than before.
In fact, if anything, it reduces the degree of anxiety and frustration.
And I'm not the only one. The public were more concerned about immigration in 2015 than they were in 2021.
@@CBfrmcardiff a lot of people didn't realise the benefits of immigration. I remember the poster Farage paid for with his Russian money depicting a long queue of turks he said were going to come to the UK. People were told immigration was bad or even illegal. Now people are realising immigration from thexEU is a benefit as they did the jobs, paid the tax but then went home again and didn't need looking afterxwhen they got old.
Saw a news item from the UK that highlights the rapid growth of the search - "moving abroad" among British citizens who want to leave the country on account of the rise in cost of living.
Yes! Most of them are government ministers ?
If so, then good riddance to them. They must be amongst the thicker members of society if they really believe that the UK is the only country suffering high inflation.
@@alisonsmythe1287 it's the only one suffering high inflation because of brexit and nothing else. Denial wont make it better.
@@batcollins3714 You've reinforced my opinion that remoaners are economically illiterate as well as brainwashed. Inflation in the US is 8.6%; in Greece (an EU member) it's 11.9%; in Czech Republic (an EU member) it's 14.2%; in Latvia (an EU country) it's 16.9%; and in Lithuania (an EU country) it's 20%.
Still, we mustn't let facts get in the way of your agenda, eh?
@@batcollins3714 Nonsense it is very easy to blame everything on Brexit.
I’d love to have been a fly on the wall for the conversation between Posen and Truss.
I bet she was catching flies, glazed over. Unable to comprehend.
Or accept!
The Posen-Truss discussion is actually available on UA-cam: "What role for the UK in the global trading system " by Peterson Institute. It's truly entertaining.
@@samhartford8677 nice one, I gave it a go but I just cannot stomach listening to Truss anymore.
@@ascgazz Haha, yeah I understand the brain hurt 😂
The truth in black and white. Thanks.
The Treasury has just indicated it’s plan on financial deregulation in the Queen’s speech. Let’s see how the Singapore-on-Thames will look like eventually.
As a Singaporean, I often find the idea of 'Singapore-on-Thames' offensive. Singapore is not a deregulation free-market fundi paradise, it's actually started out the opposite and still is in many ways. Most of what made Singapore success, is what would be consider massively socialist by the US conservative.
@@biocapsule7311 No need to be offended. It's just a statement verifying the stupidity of Brexiteers. They know nothing about nothing and them knowing nothing about Singapore is just a part of the vastness of their ignorance.
There is now a move to race to the bottom. That was always a possible result but not an immediate one. There is still that pressure. Usually it is those who don't understand the consequences of massive deregulation that will push for it. I suspect that this is just about to happen.
At 24:26 there is some scary thing happening... too close was he ALMOST right, if Mr. Posen had predicted political fallout from the fall of Johnson to Truss... but his thing is economics and not politics. How brilliant
People were also lied to about the Economic consequences eg Red Bus.
Would have more respect for Brexit if honest about Economic consequences and people still decided to vote Brexit.
Sold have cake and eat it.
Don't think it was an economic decision
A Norway style relationship with the EU is and always was the only end game for Brexit. No matter how you look at it there is no other place it could go. It is also exactly a Brexit-in-Name-Only, which again is totally inevitable. It is already that in reality, since it is a pipe-dream that the UK can really set regulatory themes, it cannot since nobody else will care for them and implementing them for yourself is only a cost to manufacturing for the UK. You can create the regulations, but you cannot force people to manufacture to them if the major markets are not in the UK. Nobody can afford to keep two different product chains just to keep Boris happy.
The Norway relationship would never be accepted by the UK electorate.
@@VincentRE79 of course not to any of the Brexiteers I agree. Fortunately in the very near future a very significant portion of the Brexiteers will be dead. After that commonse may well rear its head and Brexit will be what it always was, a geriatric pipedream.
@@tonycook7679 Yes but do not forget as younger voters get older they then change their political views and become more Right wing.
@@VincentRE79 😂😂😂 And much less by the EU. Perfidious Albion will come begging for full membership, don't worry.
@@rt0935 The EU will be gone in the next 10/15 years.
An act of self abuse and appalling consequences for our people. We should have had at least 51% majority for brexit. It was a right wing coup of self harm and made a lot of money for those at the top who had influence and had a big bet on us leaving.
Your one of those people who only believes in democracy when it goes your way. You have no belief in your own country and that's why you would prefer a group of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels to run it which is rather sad to say the least.
Penelope, surely you mean a 51% majority for remain??
Yes. Sorry I did not make that clear.
A "binding referendum" would have entailed 3 conditions:
- a government white paper, pre-referendum, detailing exactly what was envisioned & planned;
- some pre-determined super-majority, say 60%, to overturn the status quo;
- and legally enforceable campaign regulations concerning honesty & campaign finance - the two Leave campaigns both broke the rules on campaign finance and both told a catalogue of lies with almost no consequences.
All three of these conditions were *knowingly & deliberately* avoided by Cameron's decision not to make the referendum a binding one. He's as culpable for the massive swindle that Brexit is as shysters like Johnson, Farage and the fixers like Nix & Mercer.
The solitary practical reason for Brexit was to protect the £11 Trillion (best estimate from 10 years ago) of assets held in the extensive British controlled network of tax havens and the vast service sector that manages this industry.
Cameron failed in 2013 to persuade the EU to agree to allow the UK an exemption from regulation so as continue protecting the secrecy of offshore trusts (specifically, as opposed to companies), to hide beneficial ownership. Cameron's own father was one of the pioneers of the British elite's current wealth hoarding & money laundering system
Adam Posen downplayed the role of money laundering (& tax-avoided wealth hoarding) in Brexit Britain but that old £11 Trillion figure is approaching half of the global total and it's not as if it has reduced. Britain, via the privately owned corporation of the City of London, may not have turned into "Grand Cayman on Thames", as Posen said was an unfounded concern of his, but it already was and remains so. Nothing on that score has improved, it continues to benefit only the tiny wealthy elite and it continues to be significantly against the interests of the vast majority of British subjects.
I see the 2016 referendum as a massive propaganda coup, a gigantic fraudulent manipulation, engineered using masses of social media data, effectively a psychological operation, hence the significant roles of Alexander Nix and Robert Mercer.
@@ObserverDingue Thank you for revealing these facts, which most people, including myself, have never heard of. By the way, British subjects haven´t been around since 1983. Where have you been? LOL.
“Be a good member “ Now that’s funny.
the key question is: Have the dirty money rules been preserved for all those offshore Oligarchs? Afterall they and their enablers paid for Brexit.
Everyone who voted to leave the EU had their own reasons for doing so.
Sovereignty and racism.
Freedom and racism.
Defining their own laws and racism.
Independence and racism.
British exceptionalism and racism.
Nominative determinalism and racism.
Worldwide trade and racism.
Bigotry and racism.
Is is therefore deeply unfair to suggest that all brexiteers voted for the same reason or that they are a collective identifiable segment of society.
Discus.
You forgot plain old racism.
@@Makeyourselfbig
Oops, silly me, so I did.
So to correct the record, RACISM "and" racism.
You forgot Security! The main reason why the home office exists... To keep the population safe. The freedom of movement without relevant security checks was ludicrous. Hopefully moving forward, big crime networks, sex trafficking will find it harder to operate in this country due to checks.
@@aljack1979 Those checks didn't exist for EU citizens but most of those problems came from other parts of the world. Now EU citizens have to go through the same checks other foreigners go through, so do Brits coming to Spain, for example. Is the UK more secure now? I doubt it.
Get back to Ireland Brian Ferguson! (sarcasm)
Jess Hopkins wrote: "We'd better get our referendum ASAP. If Ireland has theirs first - and win - many of those who identify as 'British' [Loyalist DUP] will come to Scotland. I can't see many of them voting to end English rule over the union!" End of Quote. Source Scottish Herald/Newsquest group. Correct. Indy2 now, please, Nicola and thank you. We must become the Republic of Scotland as soon as possible and end Loyalist violence and English divide and rule over Scottish natural and human resources. Like Ukraine, Scotland's future is inside a non-political union we call Europe. I am so proud of all the people of Scotland who produced this stunning answer to the unionist and loyalist divide and rule from England. THANK YOU ALL.
@Tom Waller
Actually, most Irish people with a functioning brain would prefer that Scotland becomes independent before there is a 'Border Poll' in Northern Ireland(NI).
The reasoning here is that while the NI Unionists claim to be loyal to Britain, and equally claim to be 'British', the reality is that nearly all their emotional links, family etc, are to Scotland within the Union.
A Scotland which had voted for independence would oblige NI Unionists to do something they have never done; a serious period of existential thinking about who they are, what they are loyal to, and where do their rational future interests lie....
In reality, I don't think that very many DUP party members would actually leave NI for Scotland in the event of a Border Poll result in favour of Irish Unity.
But it would probably better for Scots to get their independence referendum done and dusted so that any who do so decide will not be a barrier to Scottish independence....
Why would they just go to Scotland? Sorry but your comments are purely conjecture.
@@gloin10 I don’t see anyone in Scotland who wants independence. I only see the SPD, who pretend to be nationalists, but who are in FACT Globalists, who would gladly sell their countrymen down the river to the EU.
@@aljack1979 Read your own history. The Unionists in the colony in the Irish Province of Ulster are "SCOTTISH PLANTERS". Does that explain it?
Think you might be disappointed. Westminster would have to approve another Indy referendum and that just isn't going to happen under this regime. You can hold a vote like the Catalans did, but that was ruled unconstitutional and they are still part of Spain. Ireland is better placed as it's allowed under fairly vague terms in the good Friday agreement. But that isn't likely to happen before 2030s in my humble opinion.
Great analysis. However, the 2 ‘positives’ of Brexit (not so xenophobic attitude to none-eu immigration, no deregulation of financial sector) are just things that havn’t gone AS BADLY as predicted.Also, I would disagree with these points - The Tories are making it very hard to employ from anywhere from outside the U.K., whilst at the same time stoking hatred of asylum seekers - or as they put it - ‘illegal immigrants’ - constantly pushing the rwanda scheme and ‘small boats’ issues. Also, they are transfixed in a ‘bonfire of eu regulations’ - they want to lower standards across all sectors - which will make it harder to sell goods outside the U.K. and see the financial sector relocate from the city, which is slowly but surely happening.
This is a great analysis. However, as at 24:18 there is a flaw in the logic of thinking that the UK apparent "embrace" of non-EU migrants signifies a lack of xenophobia or nationalism.
Brexit was, in many of the leading groups, a plan to displace Europeans with a cheaper and a more politically subservient (less empowered)contingent in the labour market.
Brexit, at least in part, became part of a Tory strategy that, by hook or by crook, was determined to break Labour rights and protections and to undermine the unions and to effectively "gerrymander" the constituency to the electoral advantage of the Conservative Party.
'Brexit was, in many of the leading groups, a plan to displace Europeans with a cheaper and a more politically subservient (less empowered)contingent in the labour market.'
Yes, exactly. But given how many brexiters voted to leave based on racism against people of brown skin, there is going to be another huge upset to some. It's not going to be pretty when the racist yobs find they are being surrounded by those they hate.
Britain? We have a problem...
What an interesting speaker.
Not for another 25-40 years. The UK has practically destroyed any good will they had. Basically it will take time to even think about some sort friendly relation with the EU.
Brexit has hardly started. Its confusing why people think the consequences of brexit and its trends can be seen after only a few years. Yes, there are industries that will be impacted immediately, but for the overall economy and industry will take a long time. For some industries, including the finance sector, we still have equivalence agreements which will eventually expire. More importantly, partnerships, contracts and supply chains for large companies take many years to change but they will. Until now the UK leadership has been too afraid to deregulate, but once they do, then I think we'll quickly see how things break down between the EU and UK. I expect this "lecture" will be updated a few times in the years to come.
Unfortunately enough things have already broken down between the UK and the EU. A united Europe is a strong Europe and the Uk is part of Europe.
@@markb9983 good grief. Your English must be terrible if you have mistaken me for a brexiteer.
Tories do not embrace anyone or anything other than their own entitlement.
It is true that people voted for non economic reasons but it should be noted that they were assured by the Leave camp that there would be no economic down sides. People voted in a tribal manner where they picked one side or the other and ignored the warnings that came from the remain side.
Racism and bigotry are not great things to use to decide a country's policy.
Farage wanted the UK to adopt the same immigration policy as Canada
@Chris Worthman You are right...and Brexit is a rejection of racism and bigotry. It's a rejection of giving the whitest, wealthiest and most Christian nations privileges over and above others across the world. Can you justify to anyone why someone with great skills from Botswana should have to compete on an unfair basis to come to the UK to work compared to a Belgian? From my perspective, a country has a moral responsibility to ensure genuine work and housing opportunities when people uproot their lives, leaving home family and friends, to go to work in another country. You need to be able to manage the pace of immigration and ensure your housing market, labour market, infrastructure and public services can manage and retain quality and capacity. To do that you must be able to plan, and having a completely open policy makes that incredibly difficult.
It should be noted that in 2004, the UK, Ireland and Sweden were the only EU countries that opened up immediately and in full. Germany by contrast remained closed for the full 7 years it was allowed to, and all other countries had policies like capped numbers. Germany clearly understood the difficulties and secured its position, as did others. The UK took the brunt of large scale immigration as the largest economy that was an option and immigration during those 7 years was not broadly shared and distributed across the rest of the EU economies. It is also the case that the UK never pursued making people leave if they had no work within 12 weeks. In spite of all this, the UK is somehow uniquely called xenophobic, racist and bigoted, yet noone says that Germany was xenophobic, racist and bigoted for its stance on immigration post 2004 for the full 7 years! Can you explain that? When the UK asked for some adjustments after the impacts of such as huge open policy, the EU response was very unsupportive, despite most countries having taken very strong positions in the first 7 years post 2004.
It's worth noting that in the last 20 years, Germany's population has only risen by around 3 million. In the UK, it has risen by over 7 million which is equivalent to the entire population of Bulgaria, or Denmark plus Estonia. Bulgaria is the poorest state in the EU and has had it's working age population decimated since joining the EU. Bulgaria and Lithuania are the fastest shrinking countries in the world and it is making it impossible to grow their economies. Bulgaria had a population of 9 million at the end of the 80s and less than 7 million at the end of 2018, and it has continued to fall. What is your moral position in that? When you rob a nation of its working population, its youth...what happens then? What happens to the elderly? How is infrastructure grown and public services maintained? If immigration is economically good then presumably you agree that losing up to 25% of your working population is highly detrimental and bad? It's odd how we talk so much about the positives of immigration and are oddly silent about the damage it can do to the countries that have enormous loss of people. Perhaps we should be asking if the EU vision on the free movement of 'labour stocks' really is beneficial equally for all EU members, or is it just good for some? Germany thought it was bad news to have too many incoming, and clearly it's bad news for Bulgaria to have so many outgoing. Let's have a really sensible conversation that really does look at who benefits and who suffers and how and why and then formulate some policies that achieve a better overall outcome.
The UK and EU has had no growth for decades because of EU policies.
Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger.
Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half.
The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi.
The EU is a dismal failure just look at the facts and figures !
How do we in the UK arrange to form a government with people of the calibre of Mr Posen?
People will never vote for honest people like him. He just tells the truth even if it hurts.
BTW, voting not based on the facts is not a single country issue.
Just so you know, he’s a Jew, so make of that what you will
@@fromgermany271 well it’s all the same god, it just happens that a particular group is particularly malignant and must be watched thusly
Make of what?
@@doctorfunkshock the fact that he belongs to a group known for harboring pernicious thoughts towards their host nations
Top comment by the speaker -
"The mindless throng" 👏👏👏
He is an elitist
@@mhl56
"He is an elitist"?
No, Mr Posen is an extremely well educated and qualified EXPERT.
But Britain has had enough of experts, innit?
@@gloin10 Thanks for proving my point
@@mhl56
Thank you for proving that you are below par when it comes to 'Reading for Comprehension'....
@@gloin10 ...which is exactly what an elitist would say.
The erosion of globalisation is in my view, only a few anxious steps backwards, the continuing enlightenment of humanity makes it a mid to long term certainty.
"....soft brexit...." ✌
Historically speaking, globalisation s yet to cease since one Neolithic tribe discovered another. It will keep going. It is constantly happening, not in a state of being (in this case being globalised as such) but in a constant state of becoming. Whether we like it or not, the most successful social units have been the ones that have embraced it and taken its opportunities.
Funny how the English who did more to accelerate globalism than any other singular country think they can escape it's implications and the stupidity behind thinking they can opt out?
The erosion of globalisation will make more wars and less enlightenment
You can't erode it. It's always happened, and it will continue. Read "Globalization: A Very Short Introduction" by Manfred Steger. From when Man as a species first evolved, different groups have migrated to different areas of our planet. And once we developed civilisation and money, both have been moving across the planet. This is just our stage of globalisation facilitated by digital and mechanical technologies, instead of sailboats and gold coins. And since developing late stage capitalism, it is more efficient and power is siphoned away from nation states to those who control markets. Merchants and businessmen, not warlords or kings rule the world now, and nation states are just jurisdictions that are profitable or not. Instead of a financial empire being limited to a particular country, it can now be global, and politicians are virtually employees of corporations and plutocrats. Nation is now less important than it has been for centuries. If your first language wasn't English, you would have probably noticed sooner. But when several corporations have market valuations bigger than countries, this is the globalisation you understand. And that isn't going to change anytime soon. Being adapted by capitalism for its own ends it will, just morph into another form. The profit incentive is king. It always has been, and now even more profit can be made by offshoring, it will remain. Look at the USA, with only 2 countries bordering it's mainland. And what does it do? It offshores the less valuable manufacturing to Canada and Mexico, whilst keeping the higher value processes at home. It keeps labour costs down in the US, by shaping the labour laws to suit corporations and not employees. The idea that they would bring these businesses back into the US is folly, as profit is the deal breaker. Likewise, if you live in a developed country, your government is surpressing wage growth in every which way they can, because their donors are the corporations who would lose out if they had to increase wages, because of less profit. And American and British workers can get by on $150 USD a month, whereas a Chinese worker can get by on that, even though thats for a 60 hour work week. So, whilst they may shorten those vulnerable global supply lines to be from closer places, they will not bring those jobs back home, because prices would have to go up to afford to pay the going rate at home. They are going to go up anyway to change the supply lines, but they won't go up as much as if they came back to the US or the UK. So... Its not going to happen in any significant amount.
It is funny watching him trying to explain how the US and england are both obsolete.
Brexit only exists because it allows the English to oppose the EU. Now that they are out of the EU, this argument falls away. That’s what we see now, a one-issue party that no longer has an issue and is desperately looking for a solution that doesn't exist. Except the inevitable and go on with life. And make the best of a bad situation. Don’t try to drag everyone else down with you, it will end very messy.
In 2016 I thought Brexit is just a lever to get more cherries. To my surprise they really did it. I would just just have said, yeah an opinion poll, 50:50 more or less, we cannot decide for generations based on that.
But, … they are British.
Britain had a business model that grew over years like a tree.
And now you have a self-inflicted drought.
You will lose leaves and limbs and your tree will struggle bearing fruit.
As someone on the comment already said it was never about the economy
Sure and suffer the consequences and dont complain
It was not because of the economy of all UK people. Only for some. You can easily spot them: extrem wealthy and they don’t rely on the Blue Passport only.
12:22 - "Brexit campaign run on Xenophobia" Oh dear.... Cheer up Mr Posen. Think of all the work that Brexit has given you.
'We were sending out search parties for people': Former Labour Cabinet Minister Peter Mandelson has admitted that his party actively encouraged immigration to the UK while in government
sure, and? them doing their job of improving the economy is somehow a problem?
Yes. That’s the problem with left wing parties. They’ve abandoned the European working class. They now count on the minorities: LGBT, immigrants, ecologists, feminists… that’s why the European working class now votes for far right parties. It’s a tragedy for the social democracy.
@@johndoe1909Now Brit’s are ethnic minorities at the birth level. Was this worth the unnoticeable change in the economy?
@@karlosthejackel69 Tremenda estupidez 😂😂😂 Enjoy Brexit, the shitshow has barely started.
@@rt0935 who is Brexit?
I don't think the Current Right Wing UK government can accept EFTA (because UK is becoming Authoritarian and anti Human Rights.)
I don't believe you can seperate Human Rights and economics.
Currently the UK Government is removing Human Right's from it's citizens. Anti Democracy rules!
They are just starting this week!
China has human rights ?
Go tell that to lockdown in Shanghai.
Right wing 😂😂😂😂 it’s a centrist government… hasn’t moved anywhere to the right… only your side has moved further left.
I’ll never forgive those grifters for inflicting this on the country.
Childish nonsense. 😂
@@remoanersrknts6736 translation: I don’t like the consequences of my choices so I’ll pretend they don’t exist
@@MrVampireBill translation
" I hate to be proven wrong so I'll ignore the fact that Germany is now the sick man of Europe not BREXIT Britain ."
@@remoanersrknts6736 lol, I’ve been proven right 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@MrVampireBill
So the economy crashed did it?
So 500,000 jobs were lost, were they?
So exports to the EU tanked, did they?
So house prices crashed, did they?
So planes were grounded, were they?
So the UK entered a long deep recession after BREXIT, did it?
So diabetics died due to lack of Insulin, did they?
Have another go old son but this time make it convincing !
“Singapore on the Thames” was always such a joke. First Singapore’s massive private client business is a result of their geography. They are a stable Asian democracy with very strong rule of law and property rights in the middle of a very large SE Asia with poor distribution of wealth and poor rule of law. So all the regional wealth funnels into Singapore from Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand. Second it’s predominantly ethnic Chinese, mandarin speaking Chinese, yet it’s part of the US security alliance. So for the very wealthiest Chinese, it’s the perfect “Plan B”. They can send their children to school there, buy property, squirrel away assets, even get passports, so that if thing go off the rails in China, they have a solid pathway to safety and wealth retention in Singapore. How does London replicate that? With Russians? With Arabs? In xenophobic England?
haha on "race to the bottom" - you just had to wait for the mini budget, that crashed the economy.
"Is tolerating smuggling the only way to make brexit work?".
If you know any of Cornish history, smuggling certainly prevented a lot of people from starving.
Economists say the more open an economy is to immigration, the better the skills of workers and the better the outcome will be. This is probably true. However, individual workers fear losing their jobs in competition with immigrants if immigration continues unchecked. This is also an economic reason - for Brexit.
Gosh what a lovely voice the lady delivering the opening introduction ...
People voted for Brexit, IMHO, largely because their jobs don’t pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living. It’s the same reason all over the world. The first clue that this Posen fella doesn’t understand this is when he implied that a 6% increase in food prices isn’t that bad. For so many people living hand to mouth in this country this is a devastating blow, this on top of that they are turning down the heat and wearing warmer clothes in their own houses so that they can afford to eat. Brexit was them flipping the bird at the system as was Trump. I think Posen is dead wrong that those Trump voters were “largely unaffected” by the economics. Wasn’t there recently a study that found that half of Americans would not be able to handle missing their next paycheque? I bet a lot of those “half” were the people Posen wrote off as “unaffected”.
Brexit isn't the solution to that problem, the Tories are the problem.
But England mindlessly keeps voting against their own interests, Brexit and Tories will just make the cost of living worse.
Everyone I know voted for Brexit because of xenophobic racism, fueled by the right wing of the Tory Party and UKIP. Ignorant comments such as voting for Brexit to ''keep people from Pakistan and India out of the country'' were plentiful.
@Dave Publiday
"People voted for Brexit, IMHO, largely because their jobs don’t pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living"?
Now, please tell us all HOW leaving the EU will "...pay them enough money to afford a comfortable living"?
I'll wait.....
If so a diametrically wrong reason
You misunderstand. I think Brexit was a profoundly bad idea. I loved his characterization of it being a “trade war against themselves”. I’m just pointing out why it happened. I’m flummoxed that this guy seems to be so incredibly well informed, yet seems to miss this point, and seems to be completely blind to the realities of the lives of the bottom 30%. Three in 10 people in the UK can not afford a “minimum standard of living”, and this guy shrugs off a 6% increase in food prices?‽!
The pro-Brexit propaganda tapped into this frustration expertly, as did Trump’s campaign.
Do we really want a UK with 80 million people in it?
The UK joining the EU is clearly the best solution to this catastrophe
That depends on the EU willing to have the UK joining again. Which would probably need a referendum overwhelmingly in favour of joining, because: "well, could you make up your mind please?"
@@thiloreichelt4199 No, they can’t make up their mind. It’s an endless circle of leaving and re-joining that ends with them being denied entry.
Rejoin a EU totally dependant on Russia. Get real
@@mikemines2931 Continental Europe grows its own food, Britain is totally dependent on imports.
@@jansix4287 I hope you have not factored in Ukraine with that statement, we all know why the nazis plus merkel wanted Ukraine. The Germans couldn’t feed themselves.
The markets are giving Brexit a big reality kick . Brexit U.K. is turbocharging insolvency.
Everybody knows that the reason England has the COL crisis is because of Brexit. Inequality? Brexit. High prices on food? Brexit. High prices on drinks? Brexit. High prices on petrol ? Brexit. High prices on energy bills? Brexit. I could go on …
😂😂😂😂
a lot of these issues are global and have nothing to do with brexit.
@@raydawson2767 Easily proven that they are made worse by Brexit because economic slump means we have less cash to pay for the increases.
@@garrywillits8025 Are you sure it’s not the government having to borrow money and raise taxes to pay off the covid bill,the rise in gas and electric is down to greedy utilities companies taking advantage and the government spending money aiding Ukraine,their are shortages because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine wheat/barley and sunflower oil adding to the price increase,the world is not in a happy place at moment and it doesn’t help with an increasing world population.
We would have had a COL crisis regardless. Brexit made it worse and harder to deal with.
What is he talking about re PRC and "aggression" or "aggressive"?
i don't understand why Brexiters cannot be reasonable and just say: "There is a very high probability that Brexit has resulted in a sub-optimum economic situation for the UK, although this may change in the future".
Is this so hard to say?
All this middle class outrage against brexit voters is hilarious,,now you know how we felt stuck in the EU with no say In how it,s decisions were made ,,totally hilarious
@@marcperrett662 really, I'm fairly certain that the 'working class' voted for their MEPs.
@@zam1007 yes, 29 seats to the brexit party in may 2019 european elections ,Lib Dems 16,Labour 10,Greens 7 seats(good result),Tories a pitiful 4, SNP 3, welsh and DUP 1 each, 2019 was the strangest year I,ve ever encountered in british politics ,,The EU must have thought we,d gone stark raving mad lol
That makes a horrible slogan unfortunately. Plus, it doesn't guarantee their supporters what they say they want.
@@marcperrett662 You had representation and say in the decisions through the EU parliament. If your representatives were not up to par then it would have been wise to take it up with them. You were not hostages. Anyway, now you're "free", so.....enjoy?😉
UK is screwed 😂
So many of Adam Posen predictions about the UK / North Atlantic and Europe from 1992, 1997, 2012, Brexit and Covid 19 havemissedtargets. Sorry but just dated.
I would though love to read an assessment of Europe from Posen experience over 30 plus years.
Ev production requires large factories , not coming here is the likely outcome and therefore the death nail in the uk car industry as the factories close . Honda , Toyota , Nissan will all leave soon as there ev sales increase and their ice sales drop off a cliff. Worse case for these companies is ice sales drop off a cliff and ev sales don’t improve fast enough which in the case of Honda and Toyota seems virtually inevitable. French owned companies such Vauxhall’s as part of the larger merged group may stay if ev sales hold up or increase. Brexit is like a few extra nails to the coffin of British manufacturing. We will end up like Norway buying all motor vehicles from outside uk. The knock on effect of this industry for the British economy will reduce government income significantly for decades engineers will go abroad and connected industries will wither. Example F1 motorsport already in a dilemma . Energy diversification may be a saviour for some of the economy but brexit was sold on promise to those who knew little of trade but many of them will be those who get the full force of the decision they made on them and their children. A little country with a former empire will see that those outside and also inside the uk have long memories and will take the opportunity they have been given to squeeze the uk dry. Better to be part of a large team than a much smaller team which has little clout.
Quick question. How come none of these institutes are affiliated to a university? Is it to pretend they're actually legitimate academics?
All EU are PIB before Covid, but UK not!
Erm, how long since Brexit? There will be a lot of years yet before this is worked out and we see a benefit. We were part of the gravy train for a hell of a long time!
Also what many aren't acknowledging is that Brexit wasn't about money to most people, it was far more important than that. There is a much bigger picture than GDP results and growth charts.
Won't matter soon anyway as the "experts" have pumped so much money into the world banks making most currency a lot less, a depression is about to hit us all. Well done the "experts"
How about the issue of national sovereignty - the right to govern one's self and trade freely without having to submit to a foreign parliament.
We sell and buy from China but we do not share a parliament.
Brexit was the right decision.
However, the speaker made a valid point. As someone who has a deep regard for England, I recognize countries do not operate in a vacuum. The U.S will exert pressure on Britain citing security concerns -- such as the 5G infrastructure England "was planning" to purchase from China. I believe that's no longer the case.
As the owner of an engineering firm for me, dealing with Europe simply means buying Chinese made materials from a second party, carrying out X amount of operations and then sending it back to within the EU.
The one common economy that always benefits is the Chinese
Has Brexit had much effect on your export business?
@@VincentRE79 We were trading giving 30 days credit and 90 days to some longer term (20+ years) customers. Now we have payment before dispatch, in doing so the product becomes the property of an entity within the EU. That changes how burocrats deal with the shipment. Untill then there seemed to be problems with paper work
@@gothicpagan.666 Good decision, any decent entrepeneur should be able to adapt to the new rules.
I had this running in the background and could only hear but not see what was going on. After a while I thought to myself, the speaker must be one of The Chosen Ones, based on the spin. Eventually, I get to see that here we have Adam Posen. Well, well, well. I must be a mind reader.
This was so hard to listen to and I kept wishing that this guy would stop and blow his nose. Great comment about Britain's role in money laundering.
It wasn't an economic decision, it was an emotional one based on a desire for greater freedom
Could well be catastrophic though
It was an economic decision, but only by a very small part of the UK people. To the others it was sold as a „good feeling“. Guess who’s paying the bill.
@@fromgermany271 Surely questions of national identity are emotional rather than based on economics?
If it was somehow proven that Canada would become richer by becoming America's 51st state, they would refuse for emotional reasons
Most people who want independence for Scotland do so for emotional reasons, not economic ones, etc....
But migration has gone up to its highest level since 2007
A literal Nigel Mirage reality in the becoming
For returning to the UK to full democracy was worth brexit alone. We are now the only genuine fully democratic sovereign country in the whole of western Europe. That includes Norway and Switzerland as they are eu rule takers.
70 trade deals, AUKUS, Response to Ukraine and the NHS getting loads more money. Please google NHS annual spending and you will see it is getting more than the figure on the side of the bus.
So the Upshot is we are not world leading racists after leaving The EU. And we are not going to be as attractive to the US as Mexico because of lack of cheap labour was wrong about financial services collapsing with a race to the bottom and the pound didn't suffer as big a drop as he thought America suffering higher inflation. And he wants us to go back to the Blair Brown policies. I can see how much he really loves this country.
I don't understand the significance of foreign investment as presented.
Germany is a big exporter of capital, i.e. does a lot of foreign investment. The UK is a big importer of capital, i.e. needs lots of foreign money to keep going.
Why is it a positive indicator to be dependent on foreign money???
Because it is being spent in the UK? Which means that some of it ends up in British citizens' pockets, presumably in return for something we are good at. In return, the foreign direct investment receives a better return on capital than investing elsewhere. The UK isn't borrowing the money, it's being given it, with the understanding that they will do something useful with it and some day pay it back with dividends. This is capitalism 101.
@@anthonyesweeney what do you do with the money? You don't produce much.
@@SchnuckySchuster
The UK is the 7th largest manufacturing country in the world. The world largest financial centre and service industry, and is predicted to overtake Germany as Europes largest economy.
@@johnbrereton5229 Is it predicted to overtake Germany as the largest economy??? Can you show me a link to that data please. I've not read that
@@johnbrereton5229 If I remember correctly these predictions were before the UK left the EU but I could be wrong.
Oh my god. This guy is the subject of patronage with little disclosure.
This was an absolute brexit delight! Yummy and hard not to laugh my ass of at the UK
Overall great stuff but the idea right at the end that Leave voters (in Wales) did so knowingly, i.e. that they were well-informed and aware that it would be greatly against their own interests economically but they prioritised immigration or whatever, is extremely naive. Where on earth do economists think ordinary people get their information from? Perhaps some of them have never read a British tabloid or watched British TV? And never mind the tabloid level nonsense and lies - even the Guardian's economics editor was (and still is, AFAIK) pro-Brexit!
As a poor hunble construction worker, i have found nothing but positives to brexit.
Well you are alright aren't you Jack? What about everyone else....?
@@bargepoled whos that then. Get a job anywhere now. Screamin out for workers everywhere. Payin good money too.
Youll never see it that way tho will you.
@@Andy-ub3ub And you are only thinking of yourself. What about other people or are you just selfish and only consider your own personal experience and situation? How about the fishermen? Promised everything they now can't afford to export their goods to the EU. The world doesn't revolve around you.
@@bargepoled what about them? What about this? What about that?
What about it?
Grow up.
get a job.
Get on wuth life.
@@Andy-ub3ub I have a job. I'm getting on with life. That entails thinking about other people not just myself. That's what adults do.
Grow up yourself. Only kids think about themselves. You are a child, only concerned with yourself.
You are probably too thick to understand these concepts. Which is why you work on building sites. Not exactly the most intelligent people in the world..
The UK as he is talking about will be no more in 2yrs time.⚖️🏴
Brexit has been proven right by the English plebs.
the biases of the speaker are really astonishing for a scientist.
These guys are still using an out-dated inapplicable paradigm. UK Parliament is a monopoly currency issuer, even when in the EU, so they have no revenue constraint and can _choose_ full employment without inflation. They simply choose not to, whether it is out of ignorance or malevolence towards the working class. Monetarism is a failed paradigm. For a currency monopolist fiscal policy is sufficient to drive full employment with price stability. You do not need FDI. Your exports are the price you pay to get cheaper imports.
Financial Capitalism manipulation is no substitute for appropriate research and technical capabilities. Time to switch back to the Boffin era if histories are always the chosen way.