Hi Prof, i am not sure why " has the probability changed between 1992 and 1993" got interpreted mathematically into Pr(P1 < P2). It could also have been interpreted as Pr(P2 < P1) which would have a different result. The data samples are independent from each other (ie. data from 1992 is independent from 1993 and vice versa) hence, in my mind, the ordering should not matter.
![[Gibbs sampler and MCMC] Example and prior and posterior derivations for mean and standard deviation](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/MOyH-SZcdi4/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Gibbs sampler and MCMC] Example and prior and posterior derivations for mean and standard deviation](/img/tr.png)
Thanks! Helping (a lot) a guy from Brazil learning econometrics in my master. ☺️
Hi Prof, i am not sure why " has the probability changed between 1992 and 1993" got interpreted mathematically into Pr(P1 < P2).
It could also have been interpreted as Pr(P2 < P1) which would have a different result.
The data samples are independent from each other (ie. data from 1992 is independent from 1993 and vice versa) hence, in my mind, the ordering should not matter.
really appreciate!! maybe can open donate. student from Taiwan learning data analysis:D