Urgent Warning for Perth Property Market
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- Опубліковано 23 вер 2024
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Financial disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor and the opinions I share in this video are purely my opinions. This is not to be considered personal advice as it is general in nature.
If the mining boom cools off then you will see a lot of people sell up and return to where they came from with all their money. I own a home but I don’t think it’s a good idea that they keep increasing. I would be happy if I atleast get what I paid for it. I paid 520k in May 2022. I could probably sell it for 650-700+ at the moment. Really feel sorry for the next generations.
I feel sick when I hear yet another property owner bragging about their paper gains, and then saying they feel sorry for the next generations. How is this helping? It's just empty words and being smug.
Sell up and return where they came from?? I think you're forgetting most (6x the natural growth) of our population growth is from overseas migrants. Most of which never want to return.
But you would be getting back what you paid for it due to inflation
*Would not* edit
@@deborahcurtis1385 Its called showing empathy. Quit being a whiney karen.
Property prices are not inflated due demand per se; it's due to the liberal lending behaviour of mortgage providers; given the ponzi effect, whereby "equity" from other properties is accepted as legitimate collateral and secondly depends on the percentage of income stream that can be dedicated to mortgage repayments without placing the household in poverty or negative cashflow for prolonged periods (generally that depends on the overall income of the potential market population and their other commitments) this applies to both owner occs and investors
Wish it worked that way, it doesnt. You still need to earn the required amount of PAYE income to get a loan despite owning multiple properties. The bank only calculates half your rental income as income. They have really toughened up the last few years.
Western Australia contributes more than 60% of the total Australian domestic production and GST income. That's because of our farming and resources such as gas, offshore oil, and mining industries.
next 3 years nothing stopping perth.
Perth has great fundamentals and stable job market. Great place to live. Its def not a mining boom abd house prices will keep rising
This trend is very similar to the last boom we had. Mirgration rapidly increased, house prices sky rocketed and then the slowdown happened. Everybody left and prices dropped. Boom & bust.
Last time the median house price rose higher than all the other states, this time if theres another 20% rise in prices it will probably still be cheaper than Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra and maybe Adelaide too. Therefore isnt this a completely different scenario? Where are people going to pack up and go to? A more expensive city?
Curiously and historically Perth has (most times) had a median house price which places it in 4th position viz-a-vis other Australian capital cities. Now it is in 6th position. I wonder what implications that will have for the remainder of the decade.
Last boom in 2007 Perth became more expensive than Sydney. Still Perth is cheaper than Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth house price has been par with Brisbane based on 30 year long term period. It isn't similar trend at all. Please study data. You can read free data from ABS and Corelogic. Thanks.
I had snapped up apartments facing the swan river view with high floors in 2017 at east perth and now the rentals are very good in W.A.👍
Just buy gold instead of property investment, no repair cost, tennant issues and as world goes in meltdown Gold always surges.
wait till a huge gold asteroid collide with earth
Why bother with gold when there's BTC 🤷🏻♂️🤑
Gold doesn't pay for itself mate.
But I get where you are coming from.
Gold doesnt always surge, theres a number of factors involved.
@whitehawk2273 You really want to compare the % in profits of Property over gold for a decade or two? 🤣
Bad advice is always delivered with confidence.
@@leevancleef553 also with Insight
There is a serious mistake in your housing affordability calculation. You used the average earnings per week BY STATE, compared with house price BY CAPITAL CITY. WA has higher average income because people in REGIONAL WA are richer than regional NSW due to mining, but it’s not true for capital cities. You should use the average earnings BY CAPITAL CITY instead, which you will see those live in Perth earn less than those live in Sydney.
also if you notice the stats, all the places that lowered in house price are pretty close to the city/CBD !! I've notice those that work FIFO/resources seem to like to live further out from the CBD because they only commute once per shift
Great news. I'm buying a beach house post collapse.
No, everyone else is.
A lot of reason why in a rising market a certain suburb goes down in median price is due to massive subdivisions going on in that suburb… eg a one million property is subdivided into three blocks and build three houses on each block and sells for $700 000 each …. Wouldn’t this bring down the medium price of that suburb if it was done on a mass amount ?
Correct
Exactly, that graph is basically meaningless without adjustments for land size per property sale. Joondalup for example has only just started splitting quarter acre blocks in half, of course half a block isn't going to sell for the same $. Some older suburbs split blocks years ago and are now mostly split, others are just starting. Craigie for example is amongst the highest population density in Perth now, yet 15 years ago most blocks were 700sqm+.
The fact he can only show a handfull of suburbs out of 350 in Perth with a decline of >2% also proves this is useless info.
I know some of those suburbs on the list well and they have lots of subdivisions occurring so your point is a good one.
Ive lived in Sydney most of my life, Perth is still great bang for buck..
There’s not much for sale in Perth I found it hard to buy here in Perth .
All the numbers make sense, there is no reason why WA won't have a medium of 1 mill very soon.
Only thing going to happen is intrest rates are going up very soon
This is base on historical data from 2023 and past years. If you have the current data for population growth and property completion i think the gap is reducing. With immigration tightening back again population growth will significantly drop and return back to normal enabling the supply to catch up. Unless a big interstate migration happens then wa will still have that huge shortage. But highly unlikely that will happen and the government wont be taking in that huge amount of immigration in due to housing shortage displacing australians m from work and a shelter on their head. Thats my take for future. Property prices in wa slump between 2015 to 2020. If it happened before it will happen again. Its just the cycle. You can ride the housing boom and cash out soon or just hold for long term.
great point at the end about how to be cautious about comparisons between cities based on median and especially average prices. No doubt Sydney is more expensive but the influence of the luxury home and harbour-side property market inflates this where the majority of Sydney home prices are only modestly higher than other capital cities.
That's not true. Shitty suburbs in Sydney are expensive.
Median makes sure ultra expensive ones are not influencing
People in WA, leave your crap driving habbits behind and move to regional SA. Its cheap and growing.
"Habbits".. Also no thanks, I don't want to end up in a Barrel in a old bank vault,k,thx,bai
Pretty sure it’s more expensive in SA At the moment .
@@baydonsgreenthumb6174 Not in Snowtown it isnt. What an absolute dump.
I spent a week in SA one day.
I saved 10 rental properties to go view on real estate . 4 ended up with a rent reduction after a few weeks on the advertisement
Other than indicating oversupply; rental reductions are more interestingly an indication of reduced income streams of the areas potential renters; signalling overall unemployment increase or exodus of renters/population
@@captainkeshIn this case, I'm seeing properties being bought by eastern investors then end up on the rental market 3 months later. Only to sit, because about 20 other eastern investors had the exact same idea for the area!
@@SnowofLightinteresting... so it's simply oversupply of dwellings
@@captainkesh mix between oversupply and landlords charging too much in the first place. I've personally not seen any indicators of unemployment, but that's just on my account.
Every day, about 5 more new builds are being listed for rent before the front and back landscapers have even come. Really interested to see where the market ends up 3 months on, although I expect new migrants will be the one to absorb the supply
Our houses get advertised in India and China months before they advertise in Perth and they keep bringing Indians and Africans in
Hardly any Africans at all. They just get noticed more.
Indians many.
Government policy and capital investment have A LOT to answer for, sadly we need a recession to hold them accountable.
If i was to give any advice to people reading this, speaking from a home owner in WA go with you gut instinct
Advice unclear, too much fat in the way
Gunt
Perth is expected a Rise in the Property Valuation Market over the next 3 Years!!!
Of course.
About 10% per annum.
Then what happens after 3 years later which 2028 to 2030 ? Flat market for a decade?
investing is about future earnings... who is to say all future profits are not already factored into the price? Buy now and you are probably buying at the top of the market. see how that works out for you
😂 still got a few years until the top of the 18.6 year cycle
Thanks for that. The title was a bit misleading but all good
Thank you. Hope you stayed until the end to hear the warning.
@@InvestmentRiseTV Yes I have 2 properties in Perth atm and intend to buy as many as I can till the boom cools off in a few years hopefully. But I’ll be watching videos like yours to see the real end of the boom!
I hope you're not competing with first home buyers and lower income families that are struggling to buy since out of towners are "snapping up properties" inflating rent and generally stuffing communities. I get that you want to invest. But really do you need more?
Few big mines go down you will see prices coming down and people start leaving the Perth at the movement a lot of mining exploration because of to make claims for federal government 16 billion R and D tax incentive for renewables mining they make people buy investment properties and can’t find renter have to sell out now demand high but it will change everything here goes in cycle
No auburb close to the city is cheaper - prices rising 1000 per week
Please don't pump up the house price.
There are so many homeless people and people living in caravan parks. Do you want to contribute to more people joining them?
Property investment in this situation is against humanity. No good human increases their number of properties in this situation, while young people and the poor have a dream of having a roof over their kids' heads. At least if you own an investment property, be fair to your hard-working tenants.
@@alech120you are blaming the wrong people …. Point to the government - if it weren’t for mum and dad investor landlords millions of people would be homeless ..
What utter rubbish if investors were not in market the property numbers would be higher and the prices would be lower investors are driving property inflation
Without investors, builders would not build. When prices were more affordable 3-4 years ago why didn't these renters purchase ppor.
Why are there so many homeless when a single income female can buy and house...it's called sacrifice work hard and no hand outs....there are still affordable properties now
This dude (and many other real estate agents/property investment 'gurus') are doing their last ditch effort to pump this current bubble and earn a few quid off our demise before the bubble pops 😂
😂 let’s see shall we…. Let me guess you are waiting for a ‘crash’?
I don't know about crash but we are going on rental strike. once we have 1 million people we will go on rental strike for two months. Early stages with only 8k users so far in the movement
@@IamRenterhahahahhaha and be homeless
Mate , this is not a bubble or a ponzi scheme but basic 101 economics ! Massive supply and demand imbalance in Perth that will take 3 more years to become balanced . My mate is building a property in Perth and it's into the 20th month of construction and still going , average build times are 2 years .At this rate , wouldn't suprise me if Perth overtakes Brisbane median house price by the end of next year . The bubble will pop only if supply is way more than demand , that will never happen as developers are cautious in this market and are not taking on new projects . This is a watershed moment in Perth's housing market , it will soon be a 1 million market in a couple of years and stay there .There might be corrections from time to time but not the big corrections like what we saw during the mining bust till 2019 .The big difference this time is the boom is not caused by a mining related population explosion but organic increase.Perth's economy has also diversified the last 6 to 7 years.Perth will be the 3rd highest median in terms of house price in the country by the end of 2026.
You clearly haven't played monoply as a kid , people with assets control the game. That's life in general , if you go on a rental strike , you will be evicted in no time and end up in a tent . No different to anyone defaulting on a mortgage , bank will give you a few months and then repossess the house .You are delusional. Get real.
Clearly you have no clue about Perth. The economy may look good on paper, but we have a huge house shortage and rentals are unaffordable. Yes the prices will rise but the crash is coming. When I can predict. But as a single person trying to find a rental, it's impossible. So investors can make hay while the sun shines, they will lose that hay when the crash comes. Inflation is through the roof and people are struggling to afford to put food on the table and pay their bills. But hey you invest. I've seen this cycle twice in my lifetime, and both times the investors lost big.
Nah, there won’t be a crash in Perth for another 10 years.
@oggyoggy1299 that's impossible, it's too unaffordable and unsustainable now, there needs to be a massive market correction
Won’t be relief in Western Australia for another 2-3 years . Everyone is migrating from other states into W.A
@@aaronfitzgerald9109 Massive correction unlikely. When correction comes, it will be a soft one. Same as Sydney, high price homes will correct more than the medium priced homes. Don't invest in the top end.
You only lose if you buy high and sell low. Some people panic when prices drop, real estate is a long term investment. But Ive never seen a "crash" in real estate.
Appreciate your insights! Can you do one video on regional WA? Thanks.
can I ask where did you pull such data from? Ascot median price is $620k? should it be over $900k?
My house went up again a couple days ago. 200k in under 2 years.
I've apparently made the same amount on my lock of land here in Perth and I only bought it back in December 2023.
Houses dont ‘go up’ in value. There is only a market, and those who sell and make an actual profit can say their house went up ‘this much’.
Very true @@antpoo. My house has increased in value, but unfortunately I live there therefore I've made zero dollars.
Mate, look at the over supply of houses prior to this surge of demand....
Hah hah, exactly. And the post covid distortion in immigration numbers that is now rectifying itself. Anyone who thinks this video is based on any semblance of truth needs a lobotomy
You mean prior to us increasing migraton levels 10 fold after covid?
You are not taking into consideration a black swan event in WA *pardon the pun, " If China stops buying iron ore tomorrow, we will all be Inaloo .
And anyone could win a lottery tomorrow 😂
China stops buying tomorrow, we sell to India the next day.
They are setting us up for an Invasion.
Gun owners are under attack,
Especially long range calibres used by Station Owners in the North West
@@jamesaustralian9829india industrial output is far lower than China. When was the last time you see anything made in India other than what you can buy from Indian grocer.
More likely we will see reduced demand continuing to push down the iron ore price over the next 12 months. Thats not a black swan event because we can see it coming.
It’s only going to rise more, it will take another year or 2 for the supply to catch up.
Great video, thank you.
I am not sure how your video got promoted to my profile, but I ended up downloading your free audio book through email. It was not beneficial for me at all, a lot of theories which is available everywhere. I don’t recommend.
Maybe if you did not already bite the bullet, you were not going to...
Thank you great review 👍
Yes salaries are higher in WA than other states. And now, yall going to start degrading the quailty of life previously enjoyed here of an entire state so few can make MORE monetary gains, that will eventualyl disappear in the ether of high costs of living. Bravo...I think not!
Why is everyone so greedy. Own a nice house, let others own a house too, and use your extra income to enjoy life.
Per capita. But as a whole, no
@@jamesaustralian9829 per capita = less $
What's the distribution for population increase?.. are these working professionals or mostly students.. if they are students then they might move to other capitals cities like Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane after completing their courses or requirement to stay in Perth before they have permanent residency..
Your assessment is a little to simplistic without taking into correlation many other factors that form the basis for the trends you are trying to explain.
This dude is a real estate agent for sure.
This....guy......speaks.......like.......this.......an...d.......it.......is........really.......ann....oy......ing
😂
Because hesnt a native speaker.
I think he does a good job at communicating - is easy to understand and has a pleasant manner and voice.
😂hahhaaaaaaaa
protip: left click and hold to make it 2x. you............ are.................. welcome.
I am willing to bet Perth will be the most expensive place to live in Australia in 25 years from now. Melbourne will fall to 4th place behind Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.
You can't tell me that there are not outside influences.
Black Rock
Chinaman all cash rich waiting to buy and rent out to gwai lo so prices will never drop maybe just short term but graph will always be going up!
No one buy house now the price will come down automatically 😅
Prices in the NT have gone down because of scarce buyers. Rent is still dear there
Is that what you want when you sell your house?
We ain’t want prices to keep going up
Real estate people are the main reason for homelessness
Wrong. If there was no landlords, there would be no rentals for those on low incomes that can't muster a deposit to buy.
Misleading title
Giving up on ever owning our own home 😢
NEVER GIVE UP.
The Real Estate industry is responsible for grossly over inflating house prices.
I don't care about the property market.
I follow the debt market.
You see everything is debt.
Strong stench of snake oil from this video.
Perth will always remain a Boom Bust Town, the social options compared to Syd or Melb are zero
Even freezing cold Hobart gets more action than Perth
Melb has over a dozen ''Hot Spots'' as opposed to Perth's 3
News flash Rocky near Man dura is a dive in Clubbing terms
Perth has grown up. It isn’t just a mining town anymore. It will catch up and pass Sydney again as it is a better place to live.
😂 What??
Should I sale.my house now?
Don't take this guys advice ever.
You should never sell your house unless it's the last option.
Thanks guy
Problem with selling your house is then being able to buy another or if you are going to rent afording another to rent stay put for long term
No. Don't sell a tax free asset. Don't risk it as collateral for another investment either unless you have the means to pay for it. Take out wage insurance by a reputable company, especially if you over extend.
Placebo effect.
You forgot one major issue mate.
Credit is drying up .
The banks are broke .
No credit no sale.
I was excited to see North Coogee down 19% with a median price of $889,000
Then I checked for myself, house prices up 23% YOY with a Median value of $1,750,000
This guy is pulling data out of his backside.
Strong affordability? You have to be joking lol
Stats 6:11
Australian citizens only - not foreigners, residents or dual citizens - should be able to purchase Australian real estate. Citizenship should be reduced to about 80,000 annually.
😂 🤡 no one would move here than and your housing market would collapse your companies wouldn’t have the staff to meet demand and your economy would go to shit
@@trvrclancy explain
Send it 🚀🚀🚀
I’m mad as hell!!!
Easy fix just leave 😂😂
See property prices drop
Can you beeee any more wrong.
pray for a recession
LOL
Send all the immigrants to WA...
you can keep all your habbibbbi's thanks
If iron ore crashes, Perth will be a nightmare investment.
Don't think so....lots more mines in WA . Not just iron ore. Plus, big miners are always preparing for the next mine - jobs, jobs, jobs. And yes, i am in mining, but not Iron Ore😁