Why is China Building An $8T Silk Road?

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  • Опубліковано 14 тра 2024
  • Explore China's $8 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its impact on global trade, geopolitics, and concerns about debt diplomacy. Is this the start of a new world order in which China (not the USA) calls the shots? Or will it end up being an $8T gamble
    Welcome to #EpicEconomics, your UA-cam portal into the captivating realm of economics, and economic history, brought to you by the team at Economics Explained. Here, we combine education with entertainment, breaking down complex systems, unfolding the pages of economic history, and unmasking the scandals that rocked the finance world.
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    #economicsexplained #Economics #EconomicHistory #Politics #Edutainment #ExplainerVideos #GlobalEconomy #epiceconomics
    Timecodes
    0:00 An $8T Intro
    1:00 Why Trade Matters
    3:21 The 3 Types of World Orders
    4:34 Breaking Down the BRI
    8:28 Global Implications
    10:00 Debt Trap Diplomacy
    14:40 The Price of Bad Debt
    18:00 China or the US?

КОМЕНТАРІ • 173

  • @EconomicsIsEpic
    @EconomicsIsEpic  6 місяців тому +14

    Once upon a time...high ranking officials from the United Nations teamed up with Saadam Hussein, some giant companies, and some sketchy world leaders to embezzle billions of dollars worth of aid that was supposed to go towards helping the millions suffering in Iraq.
    This is that terrible true story: ua-cam.com/video/PM3ZMWtbBag/v-deo.html

    • @Houthiandtheblowfish
      @Houthiandtheblowfish 5 місяців тому +1

      have you heard of american bri called bomb back better 8t dollars for destblizing and stablizing west asia

  • @braineaterzombie3981
    @braineaterzombie3981 6 місяців тому +41

    China is becoming love of every economics yt channel

    • @resiliencewithin
      @resiliencewithin 6 місяців тому +13

      And they are simply repeating articles

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      China has propaganda too. The US opened China. They were given our jobs, which tanked the rust belt. We created the global supply lines by building the Panama Canal that combined the two hemispheres to begin with. They are pirates, stealing our money and our trade routes.
      You control the Suez Canal and the South China Sea, you control shipping for the world. That is your steel, your metals, your food, fuel, clothes. It means you can't build a military.
      The US opened Japan. They industrialized, then they imperialized.
      The US opened China. They industrialized, they immediately started a military...

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      That is because China's economic state intervention is unlike anything else in history.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson 6 місяців тому

      For obvious reasons. It was the darling of the economic world for years then now it’s quickly seeing major problems and declining growth with grim future prospects.

    • @dailyrant4068
      @dailyrant4068 6 місяців тому

      @@Homer-OJ-Simpsonlol if you actually look at the history, there have been articles about China economy disaster since early 2000s. It’s always been something that triggers people, because it splits people into two camps. Yet people look at these videos or articles as innocent

  • @nnf9431
    @nnf9431 3 місяці тому +3

    I'm stuck in a Canadian debt trap every day lol

  • @bernatfernandez9931
    @bernatfernandez9931 6 місяців тому +2

    Well India and the US have now struck a deal to partícipe too in the Sri Lanka port

  • @jonniheinisto9825
    @jonniheinisto9825 6 місяців тому

    Reupload?

  • @AnarchistDoc
    @AnarchistDoc 5 місяців тому +11

    I wish best of luck to China. At least they are not waging wars globally.

    • @phillipchan6044
      @phillipchan6044 4 місяці тому +1

      ​@@infinichi89first of all, they are disputes not a single bullet was fired. Taiwan was recognised by the rest of the world INCLUDING the US as part of China. Indian's dispute with China started with the unlawful mapping of the border during the British colonial rule that the Chinese never agreed to. The present dispute with the Philippines was reignited right after a visit by Kamala Harris, it's definitely not a coincidence. The Philippines had brought some "journalist" to document a much bigger Chinese marine patrol vessel hitting their own boat. They then released heavily edited footage depicting the Chinese hitting their boat. As it turns out, the Chinese documented the whole process which actually showed the Filipinos maneuvering their own boat such that its back was clipped by the front of the vessel. It's clear what the Filipinos are trying to do and who is backing them. I live in South East Asia, nobody here believes what the western media propaganda anymore.

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      ​@@phillipchan6044what about Tibet and most east Asian countries. No bullets were fired?? how dumb r u??. N they consider d border under those empire they were mighty.. So using those logic Mongol should rule whole f China.. China controls whole Tibet and a portion of India.. China waged 2 wars against India.. N recently clashed with India where 20 Indian soldier died..

    • @cameronvincent
      @cameronvincent 2 місяці тому

      Conflicts can be waged without resorting to violence; countries can achieve their goals through political means

    • @iggy5347
      @iggy5347 15 днів тому

      US war war war war
      China trades trades

  • @jointscript
    @jointscript 4 місяці тому +2

    I have some issues with some of the information in the video. The Sri Lanka debt for example. Only 8-10% of its external debt is owed to China, the rest is to west financial organisations.

    • @joem0088
      @joem0088 4 місяці тому

      Debt trap is sour grape talk by the West. Nothing more. Search "Bloomberg Debt trap is a myth"

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      China charges higher interest than d world bank and other international bodies.. Only through Viability studies those loans r provided.. While China secret negotiation is prone to corruption

  • @davisoaresalves5179
    @davisoaresalves5179 6 місяців тому +2

    Very good video.

  • @ongyewleng4718
    @ongyewleng4718 6 місяців тому +7

    Despite all the shortcomings of the BRI some of the infrastructures have been delivered to some countries thereby improving the standard of living in these countries. No system in this world is perfect.

    • @SyTacLoc
      @SyTacLoc 4 місяці тому +1

      Exactly … search for some Africans talk about China. They appreciate China so much.

    • @shawngibson7514
      @shawngibson7514 3 місяці тому

      Lol. You think china is doing this to help poor Africans? Think again.

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      ​@@SyTacLoccoz they r indebted to China, they want to restructure those loans😂😂.. 1 thing I will give credit they make things cheaper 4 manufacture goods..

  • @rambro5104
    @rambro5104 6 місяців тому +8

    Very important topic for the next times

  • @jaylewis9876
    @jaylewis9876 6 місяців тому +3

    When discussing currencies the Euro should be mentioned since its in second place globally

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      Greece in 2009 ruined the chance of the Euro to dominate global trade.

  • @Raika63
    @Raika63 6 місяців тому +18

    I guess if they build low quality infrastructure they'll always have new projects to take on as the old ones fall apart.

    • @SubmarineSam
      @SubmarineSam 6 місяців тому

      Sounds like Western planned obsolescence to me. Design something that either breaks or quickly becomes obsolete forcing consumers to repeatedly buy the product on a regular basis. I think cars were one of the first industries to use this tactic in the early 20th century, but nowadays the entire technology industry is based in some part on that strategy.
      Even look at new homes, particularly in the UK. We have homes that have stood for 200 years+ yet the new homes they build now barely look like they can withstand 20!

    • @dailyrant4068
      @dailyrant4068 6 місяців тому +2

      Yea keep telling yourself it’s somehow lower quality. Because you know, you must be an engineering expert.

    • @user-wq4fb7zt8y
      @user-wq4fb7zt8y 5 місяців тому

      It is fortunate that you are not a member of the facility builders.

    • @SyTacLoc
      @SyTacLoc 4 місяці тому +2

      Watch some video about how the engineers calculated. Then maybe you can open your eyes and mind to increase your knowledge about Chinese infrastructures built for the world.

  • @graham1034
    @graham1034 6 місяців тому +4

    Oh the irony of China getting a 99 year lease on a part of Sri Lanka

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому +7

      Colonialism with Chinese Characteristics

    • @gabbar51ngh
      @gabbar51ngh 6 місяців тому

      China mimicking Western colonialism.

  • @olefilegoitseoneishmael.mo8330
    @olefilegoitseoneishmael.mo8330 5 місяців тому +1

    between china and the IMF along with the world bank. who has the worst debt trap? who offers loans to african countries at high interest rates.

    • @totalstrangerthing7419
      @totalstrangerthing7419 5 місяців тому +1

      The US of course.

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      China.. IMF provided loans to many countries.. India, Poland etc.. India worked a bit on their advice, like opening up economy, devaluing Currency, flexible exchange rate etc Its half done still we came out f balance f payment crisis comfortable.. Poland did most things so they r developed economy.. If u don't follow their advice u don't have d right to criticism them.. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Argentina etc didn't followed d structural adjustment program f d IMF, so they r unable to pay their debt..

  • @badluck5647
    @badluck5647 6 місяців тому +3

    Belt and Road is "Colonialism with Chinese Characteristics".

  • @sdarkpaladin
    @sdarkpaladin 5 місяців тому

    I thought the Won is Korean?

  • @alexs4847
    @alexs4847 5 місяців тому +1

    Love the video but chinese "Juan" is just funny as shit

  • @DuderofDudeness
    @DuderofDudeness 6 місяців тому +8

    Up to a lot of no good

  • @JessieHuia
    @JessieHuia 5 місяців тому +3

    Because China can!!❤

  • @prayonkreutz2398
    @prayonkreutz2398 4 місяці тому

    U.S.A. Currency is Strong? All the mass printing of the greenback has seriously deflated its value. Why do you think we (& the rest of the global economies) are experiencing inflation?

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      USA didn't print money.. But US borrowed heavily through issuing Treasury bonds.. Maybe later they might face difficulty.. But many young migrants go to US to work, which will help.. Inflation is due to uncertainty in d world market due to war, energy prices and farm goods hike.. Less investment in fossil fuel is the main reason 4 inflation

  • @teoh3564
    @teoh3564 Місяць тому

    Just build like the romans did❤

  • @TheExtraterrestrial99
    @TheExtraterrestrial99 4 місяці тому

    This is wrong in several points.
    Such as Sri Lanka, the government owned debt to other country too, and China is not their biggest debtor. The newer loan they getting from China is for them to cover their debt of other country, because no one wanted to borrow them anymore, they just replacing loans with loans. And they can borrow from China with leashing their port.
    And for using local workers, it really up to how the local government negotiate. China actually provide teaching and even allow the locals there to proceed their study in China on the related stuff.
    One of the reason Vietnam favor China over Japan to build their train is because China provide transfer of technology while Japan reject. And yeah, China also build it faster and has outcome while Japan only show little process on building their train line in Vietnam.

  • @gabrielboman1340
    @gabrielboman1340 6 місяців тому

    Mans think he's sleek showing Taiwan as China on maps.
    Shits ded fam is a wasteman ting init you get me bruv 💀💀

  • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
    @Homer-OJ-Simpson 6 місяців тому +4

    It seems China was willing to have a lower return on investment on the BRI in return for the debt diplomacy. They didn’t predict a worldwide pandemic which has lead to possibly negative returns on investments and now they are having to adjust their plans a bit.
    Along with debt trap diplomacy, the other reason for the BRI likely is to create export markets for Chinese goods and import raw materials from these countries. As mentioned in the video, they had all those construction companies and they have all the excess USD from trade surplus.

    • @SyTacLoc
      @SyTacLoc 4 місяці тому

      China wants poor country to share a piece of the pie as Xi’s campaign’Common Prosperity’ intended.

    • @renawang79
      @renawang79 4 місяці тому +1

      Very little of Chinas foreign infrastructure projects actually have a “debt trap” clause.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson 4 місяці тому

      @@renawang79 they just become debt trap because they are literally making loan deals with secrete details which allow for bribery and corruption.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson 4 місяці тому

      @@renawang79 not all the loans come with “you must drop recognition of Taiwan” or “you must support China at the UN on this”. But since everything is very secretive, it certainly allows a lot of that to happen

    • @BeelP.
      @BeelP. 3 місяці тому

      ​@@Homer-OJ-Simpsonno country without diplomatic relations with China can be part of the BRI and to have diplomatic relations with China, you must recognise PRC as the sole representative of the Chinese nation and accept that Taiwan is a part of China. The only point of contention amongst countries that do have diplomatic relations with China is whether or not China would find support in attempting to militarily enforce reunification with China.

  • @Qwerty-of4cy
    @Qwerty-of4cy 6 місяців тому +1

    20:14 only gonna get stropnger?? looks at the reccord breaking inflation in the us rn

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      All 3 countries are in recession because preparing for war tanks the economy and inflation rises. All 3 countries have been preparing since at least 2014.

    • @donttalkcrap
      @donttalkcrap 6 місяців тому

      What does inflation have to do with a strong dollar? Seriously? Do you know anything?
      The strength of a currency is based on how it compares to other currencies… And spoiler alert, just in case you're American and don't pull your head out of your a$$ to know what is happening in the rest of the world… Inflation is happening in practically every other country on the planet, duh! Yeah, so relative, the US dollar is strong and getting stronger. Perhaps you should go and do some research instead of talking crapYeah, so relative, the US dollar is strong and getting stronger. Perhaps you should go and do some research instead of talking crap that is purely based on your own opinion. 🤦

    • @Qwerty-of4cy
      @Qwerty-of4cy 6 місяців тому

      so thats why china has had to limit deflation, if the chinesse government did nothing the chinese currency would be a lot stronger thatn it is now, they have devalued it to protect domestic companies they are not in recession @@Nylon_riot

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      The only thing worst than inflation is deflation

    • @Qwerty-of4cy
      @Qwerty-of4cy 6 місяців тому

      you have no idea how economies work especially the chinese one@@badluck5647

  • @jahsoulfa
    @jahsoulfa 4 місяці тому +1

    A lot of bias in one video.

  • @johnoktavianus7738
    @johnoktavianus7738 6 місяців тому +1

    U don't talk about USA debt.

  • @hildablanco1591
    @hildablanco1591 Місяць тому

    BRI means bury America rise in power

  • @bertalantoth8983
    @bertalantoth8983 6 місяців тому +8

    As long as everybody is producing their goods in China, because it's the cheapest, and we don't want inflation, well they can sit back and enjoy because their plan is working.. As long as globalization is working, they have a guaranteed pole position for the profits

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      Once you are dependent on China, they can metaphorically turn off the tap. That means you are surrendering your sovereignty to a foreign dictator.

    • @dailyrant4068
      @dailyrant4068 6 місяців тому

      But is it the cheapest? Labor is absolutely cheaper in Africa or even some of south East Asian countries.

    • @senpai8435
      @senpai8435 4 місяці тому

      China hasn't been cheap in terms of labour force in over a decade. The thing that attracts companies is the huge consumer market.

    • @dailyrant4068
      @dailyrant4068 4 місяці тому

      @@senpai8435exactly, plus the infrastructure. Other low labor countries don’t have the market size or the infrastructure. Just look at the massive docks all over the coast of China

    • @bertalantoth8983
      @bertalantoth8983 4 місяці тому

      @@dailyrant4068 infrastructure, yes, but very cheap and skilled labor compared to the west..

  • @truthality511
    @truthality511 6 місяців тому

    SO THE AMERICAS GONNA BE ONE BIG ISLAND BY OURSELVES🤣🤣🤣

  • @BeelP.
    @BeelP. 3 місяці тому

    It is a noble move for China to help others achieve economic progress as a way for itself to progress. A classic win win mechanism.

    • @prakashkr2214
      @prakashkr2214 2 місяці тому

      Yea.. 4 corrupt China CCP members and corrupt host politician and bureacts

  • @joem0088
    @joem0088 6 місяців тому +5

    Since the British built the maritime world of trade, inland trade route have been forgotten leaving many formerly great cities and related regions like Baghad, Xian, Samarkan, Kabul ... under developed. Xi recognised this opportunity of inland trade and development. They have little competition as the West is primarily maritime. This re-emphasis on land conveyed trade, railways is a fundament reset which took the West by surprise. The West is weak there and behind. That's really all. Don't read too much "world domination" or neferious plans into it.

    • @prayonkreutz2398
      @prayonkreutz2398 4 місяці тому

      Actually, the Dutch built Maritime trade. They were the World Trade Currency until the British took control. Then the USA. The British built extensive railroads across their Empire, in doing so, it was one factor of British Trade Dominance over the Dutch.

  • @tresphorempundu3185
    @tresphorempundu3185 6 місяців тому +9

    This is were everyone trying to understand the bri initiativ goes off topic by their very ignorance regarding how these loans are given. One point is clear because the rates at which debt is given to other countries from China are extremely favourable to the host country. It's entirely up to the borrower to plan strategically how to spend their that money in order to get the intended goals. Nobody is cheated into borrowing money from China,most countries turn to China because it's a much better alternative and even with it's many shortcomings. It remains by far the single most important step taken by one nation to uplift millions out of poverty. Africa's current rise economically is a direct result of china alone. Which is mind boggling to say the least. Considering the many outcrys from Europe and USA trying their very best to keep other countries under extreme poverty and death,the same strategy they have used together with corrupt African leaders for a long time.
    The success of the bri will be decided by those involved in it and their long term national goals. Not one intiativ from Europe and USA has been successful in Africa and the new ideas coming from America this time around are equally bound to fall, because they are not built around corporation, just like old agreements.

    • @Manikanta-hh7wp
      @Manikanta-hh7wp 6 місяців тому +2

      lol.. The interest rate and terms were not at all favourable to host country except in few cases. It's the Corruption and desperation making the countries take loans. It's like pay day lenders lending to working people. Extractive and Self serving.

  • @HisShadow
    @HisShadow 6 місяців тому +8

    The BRI has been one of the biggest geopolitical/economic failures of the century. The majority of the projects have been poorly constructed or didn't create the economic booms they were marketed as.
    It has also caused the world as a whole to look at China more unfavourably. They have caused resentment in the population of the nations they've worked with if not the governments themselves.
    Finally the loans are mostly going bad. Which is causing the Chinese banks to loan more money to the nations so they don't default outright only tethering more money and resources into bad investments.

    • @Ex.zed.
      @Ex.zed. 6 місяців тому

      This!

    • @mailhanyi
      @mailhanyi 6 місяців тому +1

      😂 do you know what you are talking about

  • @justmanuel2000
    @justmanuel2000 5 місяців тому

    Start with bias and end of shxt.

  • @prastagus3
    @prastagus3 5 місяців тому +1

    China serviced 155 countries with BRI and only need to bail out about 20. So Actually, it is not doing "debt trap" as much one would think.

  • @_EVANERV_
    @_EVANERV_ 6 місяців тому +6

    I love these BRI related videos, but I think most of them are making a big and perhaps somewhat incorrect assumption: China's goal.
    I agree that vying for control of the world with US through debt trap/trade/currency war is definitely something BRI does. But I think we are giving China too much credit. My analysis is a lot simpler, as I don't think China had truly planned that far ahead. What China is doing is exporting productivity. China's intense growth was in no small part fueled by debt/investment driven infrastructure projects. As they have pretty much saturated their own infrastructure needs, they were faced with a big dilemma. They could either do the hard thing and transitioned their economic growth from construction sector into something else, or simply find more projects to build. And they choose the latter.
    Hence why BRI is so ladened with unnecessary and poorly planned projects involving nations that cannot possibly bear the cost. Plus a lot of the BRI countries are somewhat politically unstable. So even if they default on their BRI loans, coups will mean they never need to pay anyhow.
    In short, I think BRI is nothing more than the Chinese government finding an excuse to extend their debt driven infrastructure construction/financing sector for 10 more years. Sure, all that investment might look pretty on the balance sheets and will seemingly boost GDP, but in reality the actual worth is questionable.

    • @_EVANERV_
      @_EVANERV_ 6 місяців тому +1

      @@liveinsea1 I understand your reasoning, but I can not agree with the conclusions you drew.
      1. It is true that in recent months China had not only stopped buying US debt but instead started offloading US debt. In my opinion this has little to do with the "attractiveness" of US bonds. The reason behind these selloffs is likely the same as why China started buying US bonds in the first place, to keep RMB stable. To keep RMB's value pegged to the USD during an economic downturn in China, the Chinese government is likely forced to selloff US bonds to increase RMB's relative value.
      2. It is true that China made lots of money by trading with the world, but only accounts for 15%~20% of their GDP, while investments accounts for 50% of Chinese GDP. As long as those investments net good future returns, then it makes sense to keep investing. But a major portion of Chinese investments are, in my opinion, unproductive megaprojects. Projects such as unnecessary highspeed rail expansions, building new cities when population is in decline, giant water projects, the BRI... Serve only to increase book value, but in reality are huge drags on the economy.
      3. China tend to talk a lot about how their investments in Africa is helping the continent, but is that truly the case? In 2022 China directly invested $3.5 billion in Africa while US directly invested $44.8 billion in Africa. At the same time China exported $150 Billion worth of goods to Africa and imported $100 Billion; while US exported $30 Billion and imported $41 Billion from Africa. From a numerical standpoint, it very much seems that China is exploiting the situation while changing people's opinion with propaganda.
      4. As I said before, I don't think BRI was planned as a debt trap; but when China is facing internal economic downturn, I doubt China will not resort to debt trapping countries within BRI.

    • @_EVANERV_
      @_EVANERV_ 6 місяців тому

      ​@@liveinsea1 I'm glad to see that we agree on many aspects of the Chinese economy, but I think you might be missing my central issue with what China has been doing. I'm not just critiquing the BRI, I'm criticizing the systematic malinvestments the Chinese government had been making for the past decade. They seemingly tend to invest in projects that are either huge in nature and are rife with the potential for corruption, or they invest in thing that can look good on the balance sheet in the short term. These debt driven bad investments simply can not be sustained long term.
      Also, I don't think the problem of shrinking export is the biggest cause of China's economic problems at the moment, their housing/property bubble is. The housing/property sector is easily 30% of China's total GDP. Plus, on average, 75% Chinese households' wealth is locked in housing/property. A major bubble bursting in the sector will be extremely detrimental to China's economy.
      As for BRI, the best estimate I can gleam is that from 2013 to 2023, China has lent out around $1 Trillion at an average of 4.2% interest. That is $42 billion dollars in annual interest payments alone, which is on par with China's annual trade surplus with the entire continent of Africa. So I wouldn't call that amount insignificant. And as someone who actively invest in stocks, bonds and commodities, I don't think the mentality of needing to justify bad investments is a healthy one.
      Finally to the questions that we raised in our discussion: "is China's economy recovering? Is BRI a bad investment? Will China have to resort to debt traps for BRI countries in the future?" They can only be answered with time. And my money is on BRI will hinder China's economy; China might even have to resort to debt traps, and China's gradual but noticeable decline, at least for the next 5 to 7 years.

    • @_EVANERV_
      @_EVANERV_ 6 місяців тому

      ​ @liveinsea1 Emotions, nationalism and the dislike for India aside, let's focus on the numbers.
      I'll use the past 20 years as my example. In 2003 china's average housing price was around $325 USD per square meter, in 2023 the price is around $1450 USD per sqm, a 4.5x increase. China's average household income per capita in 2003 was around $1100 USD, in 2023 it is around $5000 USD, also a 4.5x increase. As you pointed out, Chinese have generally chosen to store their wealth in property/housing, and the numbers reflects the reality.
      What bothers me about the numbers is the amount of liquidity locked in the real estate sector and the oversupply caused by speculation. With an average vacancy rate of around 10% in 30 largest Chinese cities, I will assume China's housing market has at least a 10% oversupply, as I am not factoring in things such as ghost cities. That coupled with declining population, declining birth rate and the inability to attract immigrants, I do not think housing oversupply can be solved, even if given a large amount of time.
      In stock markets, when you experience downturns, as long as the companies you invest in have solid fundamentals, is profitable and do not go out of business. You can generally wait out the downturns in a few years. I can not say this is the case when comes to real estate bubbles caused by oversupply. For example, if Xiaomi made too many phones and everyone bought a phone thus causing an oversupply of phones on the market. In a few years time people will still upgrade their phones thus solving the oversupply issue. That is the thing, most stocks, at least the ones I'm interested in, deal with consumer nondurable goods. Issues of oversupply can always subside when the oversupplied item loses durability. But real estate is very much a durable good, it is something people can hold for an extremely long period of time.
      Another big issue with real estate is the liquidity. Sure on paper people who bought their houses in China 20 years ago have 4.5x their property value. But if they need the money now, they will either have to sell their house or take out a mortgage. And with 75% of household wealth locked in real estate sector during a significant housing bubble, I think it is extremely detrimental to the liquidity of the already illiquid real estate market. This will greatly slow down investment and spending in private sectors, which we are indeed observing.
      I think the most likely course for the Chinese housing sector to take will be akin to the Japanese housing sector from 1991 to now. Japan had experienced a major housing bubble in 1990 with much underlying parallels to what China is experiencing now. Only till recently did Japanese housing sector start to rebound.
      In short, we have both explained our sides of the analyses, could I be completely wrong? Absolutely. But I think all the discussion is good for aiding in the prediction of future market movements.
      So here are my predictions: Chinese housing market will see an average price decline of 40% for the next 15 years, the sector may see recovery after 20 years. Meanwhile Chinese economy will see stagnation or recession even deflation for the next 5~7 years, and will see gradual recovery after 10 years. We will know if we are right or wrong in 20 years. I hope I'm wrong, as the decline of Chinese economy will not be a positive for global markets and will not help me with my portfolio. But I'm preparing for the worst.

    • @_EVANERV_
      @_EVANERV_ 6 місяців тому

      ​@@liveinsea1 I wasn't going to write this, but you mentioned something very important to my central thesis, the kids. There are simply less kids than there are parents. My hypothesis is simple: Due to the nearly non-existent social safety net and the lacking elderly care sector in China; when the time comes for the kids to take care of their parents due to societal expectation/tradition, the economic pressure will be severe. This will force the one child policy generation (born from 1980 onwards) to sell property and increase liquidity just to take care of the previous generation. And I think the cycle will begin in around 3~5 years time when the parents reach 65.
      If China's population doesn't increase and the government doesn't invest heavily in retirement funds/social safety net/elderly medical care; then this will always be an issue. As long as this isn't resolved, I do not think the demand will be there for real estate. Even if there is demand, it will always be out-weighted by supply. This is one of the major reasons why I believe Chinese real estate market will likely decline for 15 to 20 years before signs of possible recovery.
      As for spending habits of younger generations due to lowered housing prices, I don't know if it will help. As my assumption is: to take care of their parents, the younger generation will likely spend less on luxury and high-tech goods and more on day to day consumer goods plus health care related goods. Will China transition towards a innovation/high tech based economy and away from manufacturing/real estate based economy? I do not know. On the one hand I agree there has been steady innovations happening within Chinese tech consumer goods market, but the argument can also be made that those innovations are associated with abundant supply of cheap labour/material and lax government regulations. In the case of Alibaba/Ant Finance, once the fastest growing e-commerce and largest e-payment fintech company in the world, was so easily destroyed by CCP regulations largely due to Jack Ma's deteriorating relationship with the government. My point is as long as the government's desire for control isn't reigned in, it will be difficult for private sectors to truly become innovative and competitive. I'm somewhat pessimistic when it comes to the future of China, as I think the current generation CCP leaders' main goal isn't for the Chinese people to prosper, it is simply for CCP to stay in control.
      BTW, I feel many people's trust and support for the Chinese Government stems from the tremendous economic growth that took place since the late 90's/early 2000's. I shall omit personal wealth data as that number is cumulative, so I think income is a better indicator and is more reflective of Chinese economy. As I pointed out in the previous response, the 4.5x growth in income does seem to support the case. But is that actually true? I'm a stock guy so I'll focus on what I know. Market indexes for the past 20 years:
      S&P 500 went from 850 to 4300, 5x increase.
      Dow Jones went from 8000 to 34000, 4.25x increase.
      FTSE 250 (UK index) went from 4000 to 18000, 4.5x increase.
      DAX Performance (German index) 3000 to 15000, 5x increase.
      Nikkei 225 (Japanese index) 8000 to 32000, 4x increase.
      In the end I must ask: Did the Chinese government truly deserves all the credit for the growth of Chinese economy? Or was it simply the case of rising tide lifts all boats? I'm not certain, but I personally feel the overall growth in global economy was the more important factor.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson 6 місяців тому

      It’s little bit of lots of things. It appears there are two major goals of BRI: debt trap diplomacy for more control of the world AND create more export markets. Because of the first goal (debt trap), they are willing to have lower return on investments in the BRI than otherwise. However, things have turned out much worse due to the pandemic. This is going to hurt China economically.

  • @rubylaser8601
    @rubylaser8601 6 місяців тому +1

    China's ambition/strategy is failing.

  • @PegasusFleets
    @PegasusFleets 6 місяців тому +1

    So.. there's business. What about Socio.. economic value. What can they offer offer all of humanity on a social level ?
    Taoism ☯️.. as in the Tao of St Paul and Jesus !!
    .. oh yeah 😎.. and excellent Kosher Chinese food 😋 !!😂🎉😢😮😅😊❤

  • @anypercentdeathless
    @anypercentdeathless 6 місяців тому

    Stop saying Zhee Jinping.
    Xi sounds like "shee."
    It's simple.

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому +1

      It is pronounced "pü ber".

  • @donttalkcrap
    @donttalkcrap 6 місяців тому

    10 seconds in and I call bullshit when you claim that China is somehow connected with building the Sydney Harbour Bridge 🤦
    Unsubscribing!

    • @curiousfacts3533
      @curiousfacts3533 6 місяців тому

      Ppl should get a life to be honest, and ever heard of the word “reference”

  • @scottmarquardt3575
    @scottmarquardt3575 6 місяців тому

    Let the US children always know we can damn the Yosemite after ww3 and have 50 more million people in Paradise weather next to the ocean. Always know LA is in the back pocket!

  • @JJ02979
    @JJ02979 6 місяців тому +1

    Another western propaganda video.

  • @johnbee7729
    @johnbee7729 6 місяців тому +16

    Whilst not supportive of China's ideology, the world desperately needs an alternative to the USA. Russia wasn't able to sustain it. Perhaps another entity can. As a non American I sincerely hope that our government works with both of the controller countries.

    • @rebeccalaff853
      @rebeccalaff853 6 місяців тому +8

      Or just live your life and quit caring about what the US is doing. No one said you HAVE to eat at mcdonald's just bc it's there😂

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      The US opened China. Nixon opened up China, and gave them our industry.
      When the US opened up Japan for modernization, they industrialized, then they went empirical.
      Who ever controls the Suez Canal and South China sea,controls shipping for the entire world. Meaning your fuel, food, steal, clothes, everything. It is why the rust belt is resentful. China built that military with our income.
      Then you guys go haha at the poor people in Philadelphia when they are homeless because our leadership sent their work to China. Then China immediately started building a military..

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому +1

      ​​​​@@Placid_CatChina can make propaganda too. Overall world wars has decreased 30% over the past half century. The US has ensured the safe passage of that trade that allows you to have access to the device you are using to critize us, that we engineered,With the electricity we invented. And the agricultural revolution that feeds your people, to the invention of industry that has built your economies. To engineering the Panama Canal that connected global trade to begin with.
      MacDonalds is a real estate company, not a food company. The food just pays the bills while the property waits for real estate prices to increase. If they didn't think your community worth the investment, they wouldn't build there and provide employment.
      It is the most successful real estate device ever created that has given them land holdings rivaling only the Vatican. It has been replicated thousands of times..

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      ​@@Placid_CatWe have lifted billions out of poverty and now you got nothing to say other than defend pirates who are trying to steal our.money and our routes? Give it all back then. No tractors. No electricity, no oil, no cars,.

    • @aBRUSHforCONFUCIUS
      @aBRUSHforCONFUCIUS 6 місяців тому +8

      Because the US system, which has allowed massive sea trade, so most of the world's countries have participated for free. Any country has been able to trade with any other. This stability has been terrible, right? No navies fighting, it out, no massuve sea piracy or governments seizing ships. Plus, fertilizer going to so many countries. So much so, populations have ballooned. Healthcare, industry, food countries do not grow, resources, automobiles, ships, computers, plus endless series of trade items, which changed the world. I just love the ingratitude.When was the last famine that killed millions? All at the expense of the American worker, industry and cities. Japan, Europe, S. Korea, Indonesia, China, S.E. Aaia,vall across Africa, vetc. have all been developed or are developing. China's development is because of this. Many countries being able to sell their crap in the US. Oh, more thing, oil and gas prices have been stable for 75 years. This means constant price fertilizer, cheap vehicle fuel and so on. Tell you what, we are leaving. The age of famine, piracy, lacjvif foids is coming back. I'm glad. U saw what thus has done to our country. The world can have the dictatorship.

  • @EkantBhairab
    @EkantBhairab 6 місяців тому +1

    Saga of western propaganda

  • @buffalowofficial9181
    @buffalowofficial9181 6 місяців тому +2

    Tbh there is no different between USA and China, just like China has been bully countries in SEA Countries regarding South China Sea lol, so the obvious choice for counter-balancing that is to lean toward USe

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      The US created China. We opened it. They industrialized and immediately started building a military just like Japan.
      The US doesn't bully. We are the hitman for the UN. Everything we do has UN backing.
      Iraq? Hussein was in a cartels leaders who stole BILLIONS of UN aid and were starving millions of people.
      We went in with the full backing of the UN to get their stuff back. We deal with the pirates.
      We created the Panama Canal that combined the 2 hemispheres in the first place. Britain the Suez Canal we built the global shipping order, and we defend it from pirates.
      Global wars have been reduced by 30% for the last 50 years. We have raised billions out of poverty.
      You are welcome to give all the technology, the agricultural technology that feeds the planet, the medicine, the oil, the electricity, the gadgets your using...
      Those are our trade routes and they are using our stolen money.

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      The Philippines wanted to align itself with China, but China decided to steal Philippine territory and sovereignty. Meanwhile, America offered to protect the Philippines.

  • @Qwerty-of4cy
    @Qwerty-of4cy 6 місяців тому

    superior technology my ass bro thats so wrong 18:26

    • @donttalkcrap
      @donttalkcrap 6 місяців тому +3

      Just because you say, it's wrong… Doesn't make you correct. If you really want to make a point, then post the source of your claims. Otherwise you're just pissing into the wind

    • @Qwerty-of4cy
      @Qwerty-of4cy 6 місяців тому

      ok... the best us fighter jet that the us has it the f-16, its old. the f-35 cost us taxpayers a lot (dunno the exact amount but its more than a trillion i think) it is dog shit, without a computor managing all its systems it would fall out the sky, im not joking even the best pilot in the world would not be able to fly it without a computor, now avoiding the obvious problems with that the russians have a plane, in the 2010s (dont remember the exact year) it flew over a us ship, which was armed with anti-electronic warfare systems. The shi[ lost all power, when it reached shore 90 odd % of the sailor quit on the spot. Imagine the us sending its new revolutionary fighter the f-35 into combat jsut for it to fall out the sky cuz of russian electronic warfare. The abrams is so bad, it uses jet fuel which means that it can not move fast onto enemy supply lines (blitzkrieg) because that relies on stealing the oil from the tanks you capture, in ukraine it is said that for every hour the abrams spends out on the field it spends 2h on maintenance. now tanks are basically obsolete in the current state of warfarebut still the best us tank is bad and old. nuclear warheads have a 50year lifespam (on avarage) and the vast majority of the us nukes where made from the 50s-70/80s which means that most of them are illegal to use as they would classify as dirty bombs. the us middle defence systems are usless to stop hypersonic russian missiles like 'khinzal' and do not work as efficiently as chinese or russian ones. The us navy is also now obsolete, because navys are now useles in the current centry and because the chinese have developed a torpeedo that creates an airbubble around it and can go super sonic just a few of them would sink even the largest us carrier.@@donttalkcrap

  • @daveshiroma7367
    @daveshiroma7367 6 місяців тому +4

    This analysis is massively ill informed and I caution anyone watching to take everything with a grain of salt. I’m not sure if it’s misinformation and misleading nature of its information if maleficent or just lack of knowledge.
    1. The US has been the world super power since the end of WWII
    2. The US is a non-authoritarian democracy, which aligns with our welding of the power (generally speaking)
    3. The B&R is effectively dead and saddled with massive debt owed by the participants
    4. The Chinese have domestic issues that far outweigh the potential aspirations internationally
    5. Nobody uses roads anymore. The sea, and the control of it has been the case for centuries.
    6. The Chinese will need 20 years or more to achieve any sort of force projection on the seas
    7. Their main concern and initial test is Taiwan. It has to be. Any other focus is worthless
    8. Russian struggles in Ukraine are showing that a successful invasion of Taiwan is less and less likely and the use on non-conventional weapons will not be tolerated by the US or the rest of the world and will immediately embroil them in a world war which they will loose and their citizens will be freed from the communist regime the same way the Japanese were freed from the Empire.

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому

      Great analysis 👍
      The caveat is the China's considers "roads" as sea lanes and "belts" as mostly rail. For China's export market, rail is good for shipping goods across Asia. There are also advantages in getting countries to use your rail gauge over anyone else's.

    • @gaia-australis
      @gaia-australis 6 місяців тому +3

      Where exactly did he say the opposite of the factors you listed?

    • @nathanolson3135
      @nathanolson3135 6 місяців тому +1

      You’re talking lots of nonsense, wishful western propaganda thinking , just on one of your point answer this , how many years did it take for European countries to repay USA for post World War Two reconstruction loans ?

    • @kingbradley7731
      @kingbradley7731 3 місяці тому

      Now see what’s the Japanese pseudo “freedom“ from the USA lead plenty mass suicide with low birth rate …
      But don’t worry Chinese people are not Japanese people
      That’´s not a people who exist since 1800´ who can free anyone…

  • @traviswilson36
    @traviswilson36 6 місяців тому +5

    China is number 1 I love you king china

    • @KrishnaGupta-oq4fo
      @KrishnaGupta-oq4fo 6 місяців тому +1

      everyone loves china a country which is so poor tahn africa becomes so rich and powerful ita a wonderful story

    • @mateorivilla6398
      @mateorivilla6398 6 місяців тому +1

      @@KrishnaGupta-oq4fo by a dictatorial state

    • @traviswilson36
      @traviswilson36 6 місяців тому

      @@mateorivilla6398 Found the woke snowflake.

    • @themiddlelayer
      @themiddlelayer 6 місяців тому

      Ser, India is number 1.

    • @traviswilson36
      @traviswilson36 6 місяців тому

      @@themiddlelayerNo, number 3 actually.

  • @jchong416
    @jchong416 6 місяців тому +1

    So it's cool when the west does it but not when China does it? Where do you think China learned to do this?

    • @Nylon_riot
      @Nylon_riot 6 місяців тому

      The US created China. We opened it. They industrialized and immediately started building a military just like Japan.
      The US doesn't bully. We are the hit-and-run for the UN. Everything we do has UN backing.
      Iraq? Hussein was in a cartels leaders who stole BILLIONS of UN aid and were starving millions of people.
      We went in with the full backing of the UN to get their stuff back. We deal with the pirates.
      We created the Panama Canal that combined the 2 hemispheres in the first place. Britain the Suez Canal we built the global shipping order, and we defend it from pirates.
      Global wars have been reduced by 30% for the last 50 years. We have raised billions out of poverty.
      You are welcome to give all the technology, the agricultural technology that feeds the planet, the medicine, the oil, the electricity, the gadgets your using...
      Those are our trade routes and they are using our stolen money.

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 6 місяців тому +1

      Colonialism with Chinese Characteristics