How China Ruined Their Own Economy

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  • Опубліковано 1 кві 2023
  • China's One Child Policy had far-reaching economic consequences that could pose significant challenges for the country's future. In this video, we explore its impact on China's labor force, aging population, and gender imbalance. Expert analysis and data-driven insights reveal the economic fallout and a looming crisis for the world's most populous country. Don't miss out on this critical analysis - subscribe to Economics Explained Essentials and check out our main channel Economics Explained for more insights.
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КОМЕНТАРІ • 1,4 тис.

  • @mikitz
    @mikitz Рік тому +1245

    The good part of autocracy is that when something has to be done, it gets done.
    The bad part is that no matter how idiotic the plan is, it gets done.

    • @hugoguerreiro1078
      @hugoguerreiro1078 Рік тому +82

      This is why I get so frustrated at "Why don't you just do 'x'?" people. They always assume everything will go as planned.

    • @commentmachine1457
      @commentmachine1457 Рік тому +37

      replacing done with executed makes it a more accurate statement, most plans are seldom considered done.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому +35

      The other bad part is that no matter how much the people dislike it, it gets done.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому +16

      @@commentmachine1457 And with china's capital punishment, 'executed' makes sense.

    • @Itried20takennames
      @Itried20takennames Рік тому +4

      Hah! So true…

  • @nicolasbenson009
    @nicolasbenson009 7 місяців тому +434

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      @hersdera 6 місяців тому +1

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    • @hersdera
      @hersdera 6 місяців тому +1

      I am being advised by Margaret Johnson Arndt, an experienced financial professional. If you're interested, you can easily find more information about her as she has accumulated years of expertise in the financial market.

    • @AG-en5y
      @AG-en5y 5 місяців тому +1

      I invest in groceries

    • @DanielAusMV-op9mi
      @DanielAusMV-op9mi 4 місяці тому +1

      Amen

    • @aruthorcarly
      @aruthorcarly 3 місяці тому

      This scam is so 2022

  • @FuzzyGecko
    @FuzzyGecko Рік тому +111

    You forgot the part about how killing all the birds caused a huge outbreak of insects that killed basicly all the crops which lead to a famine.

    • @michaellee401
      @michaellee401 Рік тому +1

      China exported tons of food during that time. It's the moronic leader and policy killed 40-60 millions of people. 😭

    • @thalleslucas2408
      @thalleslucas2408 Рік тому

      Or forgot that climate disaster hit China, or that Mao picked China without any infrastructure or technology after revolution

    • @user-gs5np7tv3c
      @user-gs5np7tv3c Рік тому

      sparrow, be specifically. Mao's ignorant idea triggered every official licking his ass like there's no tomorrow.

    • @jayacademia3436
      @jayacademia3436 10 місяців тому +3

      Conveniently this was omitted in the footage which was very relevant to the famine. Not surprised.

    • @memysurname7521
      @memysurname7521 10 місяців тому +5

      @@jayacademia3436 "Conveniently"
      How is that convenient? Both cases are pretty much the same case of authoritarianism going really bad. And isn't like the birds case makes the one child policy less bad.

  • @Itried20takennames
    @Itried20takennames Рік тому +213

    From other videos, the preference for boys was not only or just that they didn’t think of women as wage earners, but that traditionally in China, even if all grown kids had a wage, it is the son, and his wife, that were supposed to care for the son’s aging parents….a daughter would care for her kids, and her husband’s parents. That divided elder care fairly well when there was more than one child, but under the one child system, many working class families believed they would have a more difficult retirement if they did not have a son.

    • @erikaoh5452
      @erikaoh5452 Рік тому +20

      Yes because the Chinese believe that the daughter marries out of the family and a son will pass on the family name

    • @Itried20takennames
      @Itried20takennames Рік тому +14

      @@erikaoh5452 Agree, but that is also true, or can be, of many countries….that last names are passed along from the son/husband, generally not the wife. Yet there isn’t a strong “must have a son” preference in Western countries due to “the family name.” BUT if there was an economic incentive for parents to have sons, such as only sons providing assistance when too old to work yourself, we would probably see it elsewhere, but we don’t because usually in the West, daughters are considered more or equally likely to care for parents.
      So there are many reasons for the son preference, but the point of the OP was that there is (or was, may be changing) an economic reason for Chinese parents to prefer sons, if only allowed one child, in addition to more abstract cultural reasons like “the family name.”

    • @erikaoh5452
      @erikaoh5452 Рік тому +5

      @@Itried20takennames you are right and I would add that in the west it's uncommon to have the mindset of having children as some sort of retirement safety net. Planing for own retirement is the norm in the west but uncommon in China their retirement planing is basically having kids. People forget that China has a majority in rural farming communities even into the 2000s

    • @user-wq4fb7zt8y
      @user-wq4fb7zt8y Рік тому

      Information that has not been updated for twenty years

    • @aaronbaker2186
      @aaronbaker2186 Рік тому

      ​@@user-wq4fb7zt8y if it was true 20 years ago it affects all the 20 year olds in China today. If it was true 21 years ago it affects 21 year olds, etc.
      If it doesn't apply to kids, just almost all adults, it is still pretty relevant.

  • @qwerty-vp1sb
    @qwerty-vp1sb Рік тому +156

    usually its very easy to put down a birth rate, many countries had put down their birth rate from above 6 children per woman to below 2 per woman, like brazil iran etc. but i dont know any case that a country went from a low birth rate to a high birth rate country, no country had ever recover after their birth rate fall below 2

    • @sasi5841
      @sasi5841 Рік тому +30

      It's possible to place in policies to recover from sub 2.0 birthrates, however the necessary policies will be extremely politically unpopular in the beginning and probably will result in international condemnation. It will very likely require a huge threat of violence to enforce on the population.

    • @nishant54
      @nishant54 Рік тому +14

      ​@@sasi5841 😅 violence to people means death of government in any non cowardish country.

    • @PresidentFlip
      @PresidentFlip Рік тому +29

      @@sasi5841 or just give tax and monetary incentives to new families

    • @Userext47
      @Userext47 Рік тому +39

      @@sasi5841 You don't need to make drastic changes. People have more kids when they are more economically and socially stable.

    • @sasi5841
      @sasi5841 Рік тому +56

      @@Userext47 would you say people are less economically and socially stable today than they were as medieval peasants. Would you say people in a country like Nigeria are more economically and socially stable than say Germany.
      In both cases the correct answer is no. So obviously your statement is wrong.

  • @ohioguy1946
    @ohioguy1946 Рік тому +237

    There is no way their birth rate is actually 1.8… if that’s the official number from the CCP, then the real number is probably something like 0.9

    • @erikaoh5452
      @erikaoh5452 Рік тому +45

      It's not so much about the birthrate but the gender imbalance caused by the one child policy and the rapid decline of women of child bearing age due to that. China can have 2.1 birthrate and their population will still decline albeit slower. It's so bad that China have entire villages of bare branch man who can't get married. They've resorted to human trafficking of women from neighbouring countries to get a wife

    • @aaronbaker2186
      @aaronbaker2186 Рік тому +25

      ​@@erikaoh5452 even now that China has a 3 child policy most women only have 1 child (or none).

    • @racetoria3069
      @racetoria3069 Рік тому

      It's nuts that when a country such as china put up statistics, the first reactions are eyebrows raising,
      CCP's they've got issues. 😂

    • @danielch6662
      @danielch6662 Рік тому +2

      ​@@erikaoh5452 how does the one-child policy cause a gender imbalance?

    • @danielch6662
      @danielch6662 Рік тому +5

      ​@@aaronbaker2186 obviously, the solution is to have a 2 child policy. A MINIMUM 2 child policy.
      You don't want 2 children? You will have to pay child support for these children you don't have, and the money given to selected parents who are encouraged to have 3 or 4 or more children. While doing this, why not engage in a bit of eugenics? Select who should be prioritized.

  • @jess8189
    @jess8189 Рік тому +242

    My sister in law was adopted from China thanks to the one child policy. She’s fantastic. I couldn’t imagine life without her.

    • @jedibattlemasterkos
      @jedibattlemasterkos Рік тому +8

      She single? 🤔😅

    • @papanga1197
      @papanga1197 Рік тому +45

      ​@@jedibattlemasterkos sister in law mate 😅 means wife of the commentor's brother 😅

    • @Theoryofcatsndogs
      @Theoryofcatsndogs Рік тому +14

      @@papanga1197 even better!?!

    • @BuddyLee23
      @BuddyLee23 Рік тому +3

      Was she one of those extra kids that the Chinese gov didn’t want?

    • @Ealsante
      @Ealsante Рік тому +8

      @@papanga1197 It could also mean sister of your spouse though, right? In which case they may not be married.

  • @SamirSeth
    @SamirSeth Рік тому +198

    Impressive - not many people in India today remember Sanjay Gandhi's experiments with population control. In fact it was one of the primary reasons why the Congress lost power for the very first time since independence, in the 1977 elections after the emergency.

    • @WayOfTheCode
      @WayOfTheCode Рік тому +4

      Without which it’s hard to see Indra Gandhi losing election

    • @SamirSeth
      @SamirSeth Рік тому +28

      @@WayOfTheCode The country had no experience of a non-congress government. And though people disliked the emergency, some things worked well - rental prices dropped, trains ran on time - that kind of thing. But the "nasbandi" (sterilization), especially when forced, was deeply unpopular and sealed her fate. Overall it was a good thing, because we got used to the idea of governments changing.

    • @sallystribrny9693
      @sallystribrny9693 Рік тому +3

      Interesting, had no idea about this. Do you have an opinion on Paul Ehrlich?

    • @marshalLannes1769
      @marshalLannes1769 Рік тому +10

      We could have been enjoying better quality of living of he had succeeded. Less pollution, less competition, etc.

    • @SamirSeth
      @SamirSeth Рік тому +5

      @@sallystribrny9693 I know that his book "Population Bomb" created a sort of scare in the 70s of mass famine etc due to population growth. But predictions are always hard. In 1965 or so, India was struggling to feed its then population of just about 500 million. And now it is self sufficient in food with a population nearly 3 times larger. Not only that, but it is increasingly clear that world population will be plateauing soon.

  • @samaustin339
    @samaustin339 Рік тому +14

    Two of my second cousins are girls who were given up due to the One Child Policy. They were adopted by my mom’s cousin. One in 2000, and one in 2008. I don’t see family that extended all too often, but they are both brilliant girls!

  • @LVArturs
    @LVArturs Рік тому +358

    It might fuel emigration too, the upper income quintiles might as well flee en masse from having to sustain China's pension burden and the resulting likely severe taxation.

    • @badaoe3stratsonly130
      @badaoe3stratsonly130 Рік тому

      Which could end up being a double edged sword for us. Because in that flood of normal folks emigrating for a better life. China will probably smuggle in a bunch of their agents. Probably in a desperate attempt at stealing even more trade secrets than they're all ready stealing. So that they can some how reverse their fortunes.
      But at the end of the day you can steal all the trade secrets in the world and still end up behind. Especially if you make your country so miserable to live in that you turbo charge your countries brain drain.

    • @chrisblue4652
      @chrisblue4652 Рік тому

      lol, this very presumptuous of you to assume that the chinese government has any intention of setting up a massive bloated unsustainable medicare and pension system like in the west hahahaha. China barely has a pension system at all haha, naw, these old people will probably be uncared for and die in their apartments.
      The rich are fleeing, but its not because of taxation. Taxation is small potatoes in the realm of reasons wealthy chinese will want to flee. We see jack ma of alibaba and think its wierd and funny. Do you know what rich Chinese people see? They see a government that can change its policies overnight. One day its okay to say X, and the next day, saying X means you get disappeared. Meaning a bunch of people come in the night and take you away and fuck up your life. And it doesn't matter how rich and powerful you are. Jack Ma definitely had tons of very powerful backers and connections deep and high up into the CCP - but the it doesn't matter how connected you are, the government can just disappear you, freeze all your accounts, seize all your money, seize your businesses without any warning. Thats why rich Chinese want to flee.
      The old rule was - if you were rich chinese, a corrupt local official could use his power to steal your business / assets. But if you are rich and played your cards right, you can cultivate a network of backers in the CCP to protect you from a corrupt local official. The new rule is, if the king decides he doesn't like you for any reason, even for something you said 10 years ago when it was okay to say it - he can disappear you and it doesn't matter how many backers you have.

    • @stepmaster9988
      @stepmaster9988 Рік тому +29

      Yes this would be individualistic western response but outside the white world most societies and cultures do not think this way. In countries in the global south when things get hard economically and people move to where economic opportunities are greater a driving force in their reasoning to emigrate is to send money back home to look after family left behind, as remittance data from the highest migration countries in Asia and Africa will attest

    • @himanshusingh5214
      @himanshusingh5214 Рік тому

      @@stepmaster9988 Only those who have emigrated can send money back. Most people can't immigrate and they can't send remittances to their families. Anyway, it is always better to directly contribute to an economy than to send remittances back. India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Philippines are shitholes despite receiving huge remittance. Whereas Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UAE, Singapore, and Germany are good countries even though their people are not sending huge remittances back and contributing directly to the economy.
      And I won't even talk about countries like Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo, and Zimbabwe because they don't even receive enough remittances to survive and are at the absolute bottom.

    • @blairmarshall544
      @blairmarshall544 Рік тому +58

      @@stepmaster9988 hilarious. Everyone everywhere is selfish.

  • @elenieXQ
    @elenieXQ Рік тому +66

    Only 9.56 millions births in 2022 in china according to the state statistics department, which means the actual number of births is even lower. The actual birth rate is probably only around 1.1, lower than that of Japan

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому

      I saw one estimate put it around 1.3 to 1.4. They also believe Chinas population began its decline 5 years before China admitted the decline. Given that Chinas gdp is believed to be actually under 60% of reported, I would also consider anything china reports to be heavily biased towards whatever their narrative is.

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      How does it mean that lol?
      Just because you've decided?
      Like the only reason you say that is because everything coming out from official Chinese agencies is immediatly suspected and disregarded in the West.
      It doesn't mean those numbers aren't actually true.
      And maybe they're higher?
      Like you automatically assume the worse. It's quite ridiculous.

  • @ElectrostatiCrow
    @ElectrostatiCrow Рік тому +18

    The fact that China added 200 million people in one decade is crazy.

  • @lberhold
    @lberhold Рік тому +184

    It will be interesting to see how this all plays out a decade or two from now.

    • @pugilist102
      @pugilist102 Рік тому

      China in it's current form will not last this decade. The golden age of the CCP has already passed. The CCP has realized this and is now acting belligerent.

    • @robinma4004
      @robinma4004 Рік тому

      They’ll probably import people from Africa or the global south. Their propaganda machine can probably convince you of anything.

    • @reis1185
      @reis1185 Рік тому

      "China will collapse" -- Liberal economists since the 1980s

    • @FlyingImmortal
      @FlyingImmortal Рік тому +1

      We may not make it to then. All countries suffering from demographic issues ie China, Japan, Russia, Germany, United States, most of Europe, South Korea etc, might want to settle old disputes now rather than later.

    • @cashewnuttel9054
      @cashewnuttel9054 Рік тому

      I'm worried for America's enemies, like the: leftists, communists, arabs, europeans because without a powerful China, they won't achieve their ideological and nationalistic aspirations.

  • @NachoMunhoz
    @NachoMunhoz Рік тому +15

    Great video, very well done and clear, so easy to understand, even for a chilean (spanish speaker). keep up with the good work! I Never miss a video in both channels.

  • @prw56
    @prw56 Рік тому +32

    10:20 Where did you get 1.8 from? That's way higher than most people believe the average births per couple is in china. I've heard numbers like 1.2 or 1.1, which makes way more sense given all the factors preventing or discouraging young people to have kids.

    • @BuddyLee23
      @BuddyLee23 Рік тому

      He already felt bad for China and didn’t want to rub it in

    • @inovade
      @inovade Рік тому

      probably from ccp itself, but at the same time, any data from ccp usually fake

    • @pjacobsen1000
      @pjacobsen1000 Рік тому +5

      I think it's around 1.25 at the moment, but it will probably hover around 1.1-1.3 over the next several decades.

    • @mcul3474
      @mcul3474 Рік тому

      ​@@pjacobsen1000 so it'll just magically stop at 1.1? It will drop even further. See South Korea. Just above 0.7. In 5 years it'll be even lower. How do I know? I live here. All of my wife's friends in their late 20s and early 30s are single and with no kids. South Korea will go to 0.5.

    • @prw56
      @prw56 Рік тому +5

      @@pjacobsen1000 I don't think the exact number is publicly known, people don't believe the gov't number, and third party ones (while imo are more reliable) are always going to be more speculative.
      My point is just that no one aware of the situation would believe its anywhere near 1.8

  • @prateeksharma6706
    @prateeksharma6706 Рік тому +24

    Emergency in india was a period when our Prime minister proclaimed dictetorial powers constitutionally in name of danger to india that's why sanjay gandhi managed to do such things

  • @MHKing03
    @MHKing03 Рік тому +18

    The sexist preference for sons is not a result of the one child policy. It's a cultural idea and an idea closely linked to underdeveloped economies that heavily rely on manual labour and regions where the threat of war is high.

    • @blossom1290
      @blossom1290 Рік тому

      Well they have alot of males now maybe they should make a only females policy until there enough to help with the population

    • @orrorsaness5942
      @orrorsaness5942 Рік тому +2

      This.

    • @E4439Qv5
      @E4439Qv5 Рік тому +3

      One-Child was only a selective pressure on top of that.

  • @Sohave
    @Sohave Рік тому +140

    The problem of dictatorships or defective democracies with heavy censorship and top down ruling: There is no emergency break! Nothing opposition to the given policies can do regardless of the validity of their critique. China could have nipped this in the bud by merely having an open debate.

    • @BuddyLee23
      @BuddyLee23 Рік тому +5

      Nibbed = nipped

    • @himanshusingh5214
      @himanshusingh5214 Рік тому +1

      @@BuddyLee23 Nibbed =/= Nipped.

    • @hugoguerreiro1078
      @hugoguerreiro1078 Рік тому +10

      But you don't need to give your opposition free speech if you're always right. /s

    • @Sohave
      @Sohave Рік тому +7

      @@hugoguerreiro1078 Demonstrating a top weakness of a tyrant.

    • @marcos-ll2yr
      @marcos-ll2yr Рік тому +1

      China is not a disctatorship, US maybe hahaha

  • @jeremygibbs7342
    @jeremygibbs7342 Рік тому +22

    I don't even think the one child policy helped them short term. Likely it caused many more issues than it solved.

    • @marshalLannes1769
      @marshalLannes1769 Рік тому +8

      China would have been like India, Bangladesh, Africa if it had not adopted this policy.
      Next generation would inherit shit load of wealth, specially housing.
      Only corporations fear decreasing population. After a population boom, a population slump is necessary.

    • @hugoguerreiro1078
      @hugoguerreiro1078 Рік тому

      Look at how Taiwan's gdp/capita is so much higher than China's. The one child policy didn't help anyone, it didn't make the Chinese more productive than Taiwanese people. The Chinese miracle is a lie, the CCP only made the country poorer than its capitalist counterpart. And when they allowed private ownership of the means of production their gdp shot up, with the CCP taking all the credit (but it's still less than Taiwan's if you adjust for population).

    • @harshjain3122
      @harshjain3122 Рік тому +3

      @@marshalLannes1769 yeah no, again wrong.
      They had all this prosperity because they didn't have democracy and didn't have to go through 100s of licences and regulations to set up a single factory like in India. It's about the policies they put forth in their economic and bureaucratic domains, first and foremost. The large demography of the young workers were the one that led them where China is on the back on these policies.
      In India, you want all the society to have a say and have end number of problems in class, religion, caste etc etc cuz you as a nation never had the balls to sort these things out, by dialogue or by force.

    • @AjayTiwari-en9nz
      @AjayTiwari-en9nz Рік тому +1

      ​@@marshalLannes1769 Right, China's TFR that went below replacement level because of one child policy in 1991 and would have happened in mid 2000, roughly around 2005. This would have given China another 200 million people to feed. Given the fact that China has even lesser arable land that India, this would have created a serious food security issue for the country. We in India are not realizing this but our food security is also at the edge. With just 0.25 acres of farm land available per person with a population of 1.42 billion, we will need innovative solutions to deal with the looming problem. Also Indian population is projected to touch 1.62 Billion and that would mean that we will have to import more food or cut down more forests to feed our population. I am not sure how will the Indian government manage the problem in the future if agricultural productivity doesn't grow as fast as the growth of our population.

    • @cfosnock
      @cfosnock Рік тому

      Maybe but over population was a major issue...having a sustainable population was the bottom line. The rest is details because without it most of the problems outside of the inverted pyramid (which by the way is happening in most countries even without a one child policy USA, Japan....come to mind) would be magnified.

  • @Lew114
    @Lew114 Рік тому +252

    I have horrible fears about what their brutal dictatorship might do to "fix" this problem.

    • @herrwolf5184
      @herrwolf5184 Рік тому +17

      Good leaders always fix problems

    • @trolllovindaddy
      @trolllovindaddy Рік тому

      Maybe make a virus that can kill old and sick people? Oh wait

    • @himanshusingh5214
      @himanshusingh5214 Рік тому +4

      Nothing.

    • @Sir_Pumpington_Of_Dumpenshire
      @Sir_Pumpington_Of_Dumpenshire Рік тому

      Forcefully inseminate females, as they should.

    • @skylinefever
      @skylinefever Рік тому

      I say that they will become "The People's Republic of Gilead" to get more babies.
      If the CCP can brutally lower birth rates, it can brutally raise them.

  • @F15ElectricEagle
    @F15ElectricEagle Рік тому +11

    "Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself." - attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte

    • @tradefortutara9608
      @tradefortutara9608 Рік тому +3

      Wasn't that Sun Tzu's teaching from The Art of War? 🤷🏻‍♂️

    • @F15ElectricEagle
      @F15ElectricEagle Рік тому +1

      @@tradefortutara9608 - Possible, but it is often credited to Napoleon, which is why I qualified my comment with "attributed".

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      Dude, the West is actively destroying itself. What are you talking about?
      The greatest tragedy is how Westerners have become so delusional and out of touch, that they've convinced themselves that all their 'enemies' are 'destroying themselves'. While Westerners are actively taking actions which weaken their own countries without realizing.

    • @mossion
      @mossion Рік тому

      You're both right. Sun Tzu wrote about it. Napoleon Said it

  • @qarljohnson4971
    @qarljohnson4971 8 місяців тому +3

    What is not mentioned here nor does it seemed to be remembered much anywhere else, was that in the late 1960/early '70s there was much great general concern globally about the threat of overpopulation. And as this vid noted China was on a massive uptick once it had stabilized under Mao, after the Great Century of Humiliation.
    The West was also just digesting the arrival of the post WW2 Baby Boomers into adulthood (few expected the post boomer Baby Bust).
    Furthermore birth rates all around the world were also exploding, with the many freshly decolonized countries (newly termed "Third World") showed massive population jumps, upon access to improved healthcare.
    China lead by Mao was showing global initiative, of how much more responsible Socialist China was by its leading policy of one child. If China had not made the sacrifices from that policy, there might be close to 2 Billion Chinese now. Had "one child" policy not occurred the Earth might have 9 billion consumers. Along with the extra carbon outputted to support them, along with greater environmental stressors planetwide.

  • @dnichl
    @dnichl Рік тому +50

    my dad and his 10 siblings were part of that population boom lol 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ majority of families in their village had 4+ kids. the simple logic was; more kids = more working hands = more income. nobody was selfish, everyone chipped in, even when they immigrated to Canada they pooled their money to support eachother, save, invest in their kid's education and prosper.

    • @JamielDeAbrew
      @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому +7

      From a climate change perspective, having many children could be selfish. Likewise from an environmental viewpoint. Or even from the lens of caring about endangered species and their right to exist.

    • @Eoin-B
      @Eoin-B Рік тому +2

      Both my parents were farmers and they had 8 siblings and 5 + 1 long-lasting foster sibling on the other side. Where I'm from this is pretty standard in the countryside and rare in the city.

    • @dnichl
      @dnichl Рік тому +17

      @@JamielDeAbrew okay and? go on, explain further. except read it again 🤣🤣 you seem to have entirely missed the context because you're so desperately eager to virtue signal in UA-cam comments.

    • @fnbasic8875
      @fnbasic8875 Рік тому +9

      @@JamielDeAbrew 🤷‍♂️🤡 Just throw in BLM and the rainbow parade and you got all the social justice checkboxes covered. What are you even talking about?

    • @JamielDeAbrew
      @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому +3

      @@dnichl I did watch the video. In general, I love this channel.
      What is “selfish” is in the eye of the beholder.
      If we look with empathy towards people living on island states, we would have one point of view.
      From the view point of an aging population, there would be another point of view.
      Yet another perspective is that more humans may increase the chances of a human being alive that has a major breakthrough.

  • @kezhere
    @kezhere Рік тому +7

    Its almost like central planning doesn’t work.

  • @masterchinese28
    @masterchinese28 Рік тому +43

    When I moved to China in 2003 I was very curious about the impacts of the one child policy. Obviously, the birth rate is not 1 child per woman and I was surprised to meet multiple people that had siblings. It turns out that enforcement a lot of times comes down to the local officials.
    I do know stories of horrible forced abortions. I also know families with three or four kids, where an administrative work around, like simply registering the baby under the name of an unmarried aunt. Bribes and connections also allowed for a blind eye by some officials.
    For those with no connections, often the second child just meant a big fine that was based on the parents' annual income.

    • @masterchinese28
      @masterchinese28 9 місяців тому

      @sepulvedablvd7846 I had seen a report recently that had it even lower: 0.78. In any case, they are in a real tough spot.

    • @JohnGeorgeBauerBuis
      @JohnGeorgeBauerBuis 7 місяців тому

      @sepulvedablvd7846that comes down to having a child being very expensive in South Korea.

  • @Articulate99
    @Articulate99 11 місяців тому

    Always interesting, thank you.

  • @Valtellino
    @Valtellino Рік тому

    Excellent video. Thank you. Just subscribed

  • @businesssnackYT
    @businesssnackYT Рік тому +3

    This is so good! How many people you got working on these? Amazing! ❤

  • @spmchannel8362
    @spmchannel8362 Рік тому +46

    It was very hard to remove this policy… as a lot of local govts had over 50% of revenue coming from fines of those who had more than 1 child.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому +1

      Same reason China isn’t having trouble getting rid of the pyramid scheme known as their housing market. That now makes up about half of the local governments tax revenues

    • @yudogcome5901
      @yudogcome5901 Рік тому

      It has been several years since China opened up its birth control policy

    • @leezhieng
      @leezhieng Рік тому

      bs. local govts revenue mostly came from selling land. you have zero idea about china.

    • @hildegardnessie8438
      @hildegardnessie8438 Рік тому +1

      They could have revenue from taxes instead if they kept the policy.

    • @albertli3196
      @albertli3196 Рік тому +1

      Have some basic common sense. How could this be possible?

  • @jaydee4397
    @jaydee4397 Рік тому

    Seems like you meant "fast track" and not "forego" at the end, there. Brilliant content, and thank you.

  • @markbondurant6434
    @markbondurant6434 Рік тому +27

    It's frustrating that economists listen to China's numbers. The situation is certainly far worse.

    • @gelodude07
      @gelodude07 Рік тому +2

      so you have alternative numbers?

    • @michaellee401
      @michaellee401 Рік тому +1

      Yeah... only idiots believe their numbers... SAD. 😮‍💨

    • @YG-mc9fq
      @YG-mc9fq Рік тому

      ​@@gelodude07
      A few years ago some data related to the Chinese population was leaked. And it showed China was lying about the amount of births and their population is probably less than 1.2 billion. Search it up. It's everywhere

    • @GJ-oo2xw
      @GJ-oo2xw Рік тому +6

      @@gelodude07 Sadly now. Knowing that the number are false by doing things like adding up the provincial GDP numbers and seeing they exceed national ones doesn't give us accurate numbers. It just tells us the official numbers are highly likely to be false.

  • @penitent2401
    @penitent2401 Рік тому +17

    The two age groups that requires more resources than they produce are children prior to them entering the workforce and retirees after they exited the workforce. The policy reduced number of these people in the short term, specifically reduced number of children. They got few decades of immense surplus and growth as a result, but as the aging population exited the workforce they lack the numbers in new generation to replace them. Now they are trying to reverse that policy, that means increased number of children and high number of old retired people at the same time in the next couple decades, and supporting them will be a very understrength workforce.

    • @rockprime1136
      @rockprime1136 Рік тому +3

      Our ancestors solved this problem by living as extended family units.Relatives helped raised children and looked after the elderly. It also helped that they formed close-knit communities. Modern living tends to introduce policies that tends to discourage and break down families and communities. Solving these problems will require massive social and cultural changes that may take centuries.

    • @user-bp5qz5jd3f
      @user-bp5qz5jd3f Рік тому +2

      Underrated comment

    • @kanishkchaturvedi1745
      @kanishkchaturvedi1745 Рік тому +1

      @@user-bp5qz5jd3f I swear. In India we call this joint family. My family is going back to the joint model despite generations of being nuclear because of increasing costs and ease of elderly care.

    • @user-bp5qz5jd3f
      @user-bp5qz5jd3f Рік тому +1

      @@kanishkchaturvedi1745 In Singapore, it is common for three or four generations within the family to live together. While both parents work to support the family, grandparents help take care of the children at home. This is very common in Singapore

    • @GJ-oo2xw
      @GJ-oo2xw Рік тому

      @@rockprime1136 False. Our ancestors didn't have this problem because of shorter life spans.

  • @badluck5647
    @badluck5647 Рік тому +60

    The pension requirement alone will sink China's ability to overcome the US.
    However, autocrats can ignore upset citizens, and seniors aren't known for fighting revolutions.

    • @kindGSL
      @kindGSL Рік тому

      The US can attract more young people very easily by changing it's immigration to be more welcoming. China can not do that because people from other countries do not want to move to China.

    • @nishant54
      @nishant54 Рік тому +1

      Still they would give pensions.

    • @badluck5647
      @badluck5647 Рік тому

      @Nishant Obviously, but the real question is how much. Too little and it would be difficult to live off of, but too much and the tax and debt load will strain those of working age.
      Who will the Communist choose to upset?

    • @fp8901
      @fp8901 Рік тому

      Chinese govt is very responsive to citizen complaints. Look at their COVID policy. They abandoned it after protests last year.

    • @nostalgicsunday3104
      @nostalgicsunday3104 Рік тому

      Do you know the pension given to elderly people(not the part of CCP)
      Is 107rmb,for details you can refer to "China insight" UA-cam channel

  • @timhK1995
    @timhK1995 8 місяців тому +1

    9:35-9:55 what are these figures? Can you link the source, it seems unlikely

  • @thechosenone1533
    @thechosenone1533 Рік тому +36

    I think the One child policy was successful. In fact it was a bit too successful.

    • @robertewalt7789
      @robertewalt7789 8 місяців тому +1

      I remember the early 1970’s, where many developing countries tried to avoid population explosion. It’s hard to improve standard of living if population is growing faster than GDP.

    • @warrenhammer7262
      @warrenhammer7262 8 місяців тому

      When the policy was implemented in 1980 the birthrate had already fallen to 2.5, without the policy it would could have easily fallen below 2 by 1990 (similar to Japan or SK). There was never a reason to implement it in the first place. By 1980, there was no "population explosion" in China. The policy was a total disaster, it did give the state total dictatorial powers though.

  • @JamielDeAbrew
    @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому +3

    What about the costs of continuous human population growth?
    * climate change
    * deforestation
    * plant and animal species extinction
    * etc…

    • @ananon5771
      @ananon5771 Рік тому +1

      a rapid decline in population costs basically just as much, economies cannot grow with so many old people to support. (and remember that china is still alot poorer than the EU or US, it costs them alot more, and they will also have so many more old people)
      they also end up endlessly conservative, nothing can change, just look at japan, where the young would have made the country pro-LGBT a decade ago if not for how old the country is.

    • @mstr293
      @mstr293 Рік тому +1

      @@ananon5771 That's the most narcissistic take I've ever heard a person claim about or population declining! We're already f-ing up our own planet, and somehow us declining in numbers is considered a panic? To who? Us?

    • @JamielDeAbrew
      @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому

      @@ananon5771 good point

  • @Guildofarcanelore
    @Guildofarcanelore Рік тому +10

    In Chinese society, when your son marries and has a child you sell your home and belongings and move in with him. Grandma and Grandpa care for the child, while Mom and Dad works.
    However, if you have a daughter, she becomes part of her husbands family.

    • @masterchinese28
      @masterchinese28 Рік тому +4

      One of my discoveries when I came to China was how there is a stark difference between the views of those living in cities vs the countryside. The traditional, rural preference for the son created too few women in the countryside. In big, so-called "first tier" cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, many are content to have a daughter. Because a man is not considered a candidate for marriage until he owns a house (apartment), the family has a huge burden to help him get the down payment. (Here in Shanghai, the buyer needs to have 35% down to get into his first property) Few can come up with such funds on their own, so it becomes a project for the whole family. A daughter, by contrast, only needs to find a man who owns a residence and is less of a burden for an urban couple.

    • @lamentate07
      @lamentate07 4 місяці тому

      I've heard the same. There is still a subtle preference for men in many urban families, but from a financial point of view, it is much cheaper to have a daughter.

  • @allo-other
    @allo-other Рік тому +6

    Considering the shrinkage of the working-age population, 20% youth unemployment suggests that the economic numbers are even more dire than admitted.

  • @stevenjuan259
    @stevenjuan259 Рік тому +236

    Making money is not the same as keeping it there is a reason why investments aren't well taught in schools, the examples you gave are well stationed, the market crisis gave me my first millions, people shy away from hard times, I embrace them.. well at least my advisor does lol

    • @donwhizz7880
      @donwhizz7880 Рік тому

      This is superb! information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor ?

    • @zorn2425
      @zorn2425 Рік тому +3

      @@donwhizz7880 Hmmmm

    • @jcrosenkreuz5213
      @jcrosenkreuz5213 Рік тому +15

      Bot comment chain

    • @nathanjane7729
      @nathanjane7729 Рік тому

      Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in this recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor

    • @stevenjuan259
      @stevenjuan259 Рік тому

      I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?.

  • @Cdictator
    @Cdictator Рік тому +8

    As much as I appreciate your analysis, I don’t think this will happen with the increasing productivity through scientific and technology innovation. It’s not hard to predict in the next a few decades most energy generated will be from renewable energy sources and most labor are done by AI and robots.

    • @jdmo741
      @jdmo741 Рік тому +1

      It is hard to imagine if you understand the role geography plays on renewable energy and the fact that automation doesn’t sustain or increase consumption.
      Not to mention todays china is not known for its innovation.

    • @Cdictator
      @Cdictator Рік тому +1

      @@jdmo741 I agree today’s China is not know for its innovative ability. However just by looking at the BEV adaptation rate in China you can tell that society and the ruling class there knows how to navigate through the issues of technology. Tesla built its first profitable BEV factory in Shanghai and helped built the whole EV supply chain in China. Now Tesla is building a massive energy storage factory in Shanghai too. Its Chinese peer will follow the suit. Chinese government also notorious known for forcing foreign high tech companies to hand out their technologies to exchange for entering the Chinese market. Plus thousands of Chinese students are going to the western countries to study cutting edge technology and science, I don’t think the current world order can block the newer technologies flow into China.

    • @GJ-oo2xw
      @GJ-oo2xw Рік тому +1

      @@Cdictator You are correct. But the result still isn't what China needs. It needs to be able to support all people when only a few people will be able to work in well paid jobs. It is complicated. However the short answer would be its not a tech problem it an economics problem. The solution is likely some form a UBI. Is any national government able to change their economic system that much in the short term? China needs it in the short term sadly. I am just likely that my Chinese family are wealthy enough to be fine. However that is not the case for most people.

  • @sdfg88
    @sdfg88 Рік тому +4

    Would it have been more appropriate to use Beijing for the final graphic given that is the origin of the policy?

  • @tombouie
    @tombouie Рік тому

    Well-Done

  • @sourabhmayekar3354
    @sourabhmayekar3354 Рік тому

    Good one

  • @Itried20takennames
    @Itried20takennames Рік тому +16

    And countries like the US, Australia, UK and Canada can keep birth rates at about the average 2 per couple via immigration, but that isn’t viewed as an option for low immigration countries like Japan and China.

    • @rand0md00d
      @rand0md00d Рік тому +16

      The difference is those countries have plenty of opportunities for immigrants as long as they're hard working and/or entrepreneurial. In China, if you're not Han Chinese you will ALWAYS be a distant afterthought.

    • @ryandeal5872
      @ryandeal5872 Рік тому +1

      You sure USA sees that as much of an option? America has done a lot of working constructing their own form of the one child policy by restricting immigration so heavily the past couple decades. Shifting more of it to worker programs with no pathway to citizenship and then even shrinking that down as well. Already feeling it with the whole worker "shortage" fiasco.

    • @Itried20takennames
      @Itried20takennames Рік тому +3

      @@ryandeal5872 Don’t think you can call changes in US immigration policy “a form of the one child policy.” The number and ease of immigration will vary, as people disagree politically on the “right” number, but the US is clearly a country of immigrants, and this continues. And while raising kids is never easy….it is perfectly possible in the US, whether immigrant or native born, to raise multiple children, and the government plays no part in this decision (if you exclude the recent government intrusion regarding abortions and parental decisions on pregnancies with serious medical issues.)

    • @Shineon83
      @Shineon83 Рік тому +3

      Well….both my husband & I have post-graduate degrees-and we just had our third child. It’s actually becoming more common to see “3 children” families among those able to afford it-and a good sign, I think.

    • @NoMustang273
      @NoMustang273 Рік тому +5

      The problem for China is that's it's still lower income than other countries, plus a very different language that's not spoken widely outside of China itself.
      Japan's case is a bit odd. It is a high income country and has been trying to attract workers but gets less immigrants than relatively poorer countries like Thailand probably because of cultural norms and xenophobia and like China language is a barrier.
      The US in particular has the advantage of having the most spoken languafe in the world.

  • @TheEverFreeKing
    @TheEverFreeKing Рік тому +12

    What in the world are you talkin about their birthrate isn't 1.8 it's 1.28 births per woman (2020).
    This is far worse than what you're making it out to be 🗿
    When I heard that number as somebody who knows fertility rates globally I took a double take that might be manageable compared to where it's actually at 🗿

    • @goeatlnola
      @goeatlnola Рік тому +3

      Agree. In some areas it is well below 1.0 already (Dongbei and urban areas like Shanghai)

    • @jerryinmon2731
      @jerryinmon2731 Рік тому +3

      The last figures where 1.18 and as stated less than 1 in the first tier cities.

    • @fenrisulvur9390
      @fenrisulvur9390 Рік тому

      Kim Beazley quoted a former China demographer as claiming that the actual birth rate is 0.8. Take that for what you will.
      ua-cam.com/video/Q76vWp-_aFo/v-deo.html

  • @stelmili
    @stelmili Рік тому +124

    "by 2050 China is expected to have more retirees than Germany Japan France and the UK combined" 🤣 considering the population of those countries combined is only about 345 million, while China's population is 1,450 million, this doesn't really say much!!

    • @Wilian_Villanueva
      @Wilian_Villanueva Рік тому +6

      Excelente observación. También me había percatado de ello.
      Esos errores de percepción hacen que eo video pierda mucha de su validez analítica.

    • @nathanolson3135
      @nathanolson3135 Рік тому

      Exactly , these china fear mongers always think they’re talking to Children .

    • @scottwales9178
      @scottwales9178 Рік тому +58

      He meant to say that by 2050 China will have more retirees than the entire populations of those countries combined. Roughly 350m retirees in China will be the same as all people in Germany, Japan, France and the UK.

    • @KamiInValhalla
      @KamiInValhalla Рік тому +13

      ​@@scottwales9178 in addition to your point, a considerable group of the remaining ~ billion are under 18 and require assistance as well.

    • @lol007
      @lol007 Рік тому

      ​@@scottwales9178 so we don't need that many Chinese... I mean if one economy can burden the whole continent its a bad economy, like a fake one

  • @helloiamchuck
    @helloiamchuck Рік тому +33

    The last line of this video doesn't seem to make sense: "...China's attempt to forego economic prosperity has majorly backfired."
    If China wanted to forego economic prosperity, it implies they wanted to do without economic prosperity. Perhaps the speaker or script writer meant to say "forge"? "China's attempt to forge economic prosperity has majorly backfired." makes complete sense in the context of the video.

    • @letsburn00
      @letsburn00 Рік тому +8

      They mean temporarily delay it for long term prosperity.

    • @alkriman4182
      @alkriman4182 Рік тому

      ​@@letsburn00 Nice try. I guess you're accepting the traditional idea that (older) children on a farm are a resource, so the government policy was a shortish-term sacrifice. The regime apparently recognized this as a problem: they applied the policy more leniently in many rural areas. (A farmer couple could have a second child four years after the first, if the first was a girl.) Supporting that interpretation is the fact that the policy was imposed _before_ the Green Revolution eased the need for farm labor.
      But other short-term effects of the one-child policy were economically positive (and _vice_ _versa_ ). Another reason I would go with Chuck Hoffman's recension is that the narration had other, more amusing malapropisms.

    • @letsburn00
      @letsburn00 Рік тому

      @@alkriman4182 I don't actually believe that. I'm trying to comprehend their policy by understanding their though processes. That's how you understand peoples behaviour in the world

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      @@letsburn00
      A lot of this video doesn't make sense.
      Regardless of this misspeak.
      Him singling out China in an issue that literally challenges the whole world and primarily Western countries even, is quite disingenuous. Yet very typical in recemt years.

  • @papitsunami464
    @papitsunami464 Рік тому +5

    Was teaching my little sister about this for her test last night. What a coincidence!

  • @amandhingra4947
    @amandhingra4947 Рік тому +1

    Sources in description would be great

  • @robertopinna220
    @robertopinna220 Рік тому +27

    Many many countries across the globe are facing the same problem, including Japan, south Korea and pretty much the whole Europe

    • @anubizz3
      @anubizz3 Рік тому +8

      But it will not fun and profitable making video about doom and gloom of our ally.

    • @michaelrenper796
      @michaelrenper796 Рік тому +9

      Size matters and speed.
      The key point though is how this relates to predictions, very common until recently, about Chinas dominance of the world economy.

    • @LVArturs
      @LVArturs Рік тому +17

      Europe's birth rates are about 50% higher than the Asian countries you mention. Plus European countries are environmentally sound, mostly rich, safe and allow immigration - they'll do much better.

    • @TheEverFreeKing
      @TheEverFreeKing Рік тому +1

      ​​​@@LVArturs it's better than countries like China 1.28 births per woman (2020) or Japan 1.34 births per woman (2020) or God forbid the scariest and lowest in the world South Korea 0.84 births per woman (2020)🥶
      However they're all extremely low and will still lead to population collapse.
      Germany has a birthrate of 1.53 births per woman (2020), for Italy it's 1.24 births per woman (2020), for the country of Greece it's 1.34 births per woman (2020). For the United Kingdom it's 1.56 births per woman (2020). Only country that has any were near approaching a sustainable birthrate is France in 1.83 births per woman (2020)
      Even then that's still not sustainable.
      Also with immigration that's going to make things worse they're letting in low IQ poorly educated people that had been ghettoized and have hatred for the values of their Nations.
      The native people are being replaced and social conflict is only going to grow as these new diversity of groups with radically different values clash with one another.
      The one benefit that these Asian countries have is at least that there not inviting foreigners to replace them and destroy their culture.
      You're not looking at this in the macro scale and your data is inaccurate and ignoring all of the many problems on the way.

    • @bnn9549
      @bnn9549 Рік тому +4

      EU’s birth rate is abiut 1.5, Japan 1.34, for China its 1.28, not to mention that China is still reliant on labour-intensive industries.
      But still I think there’s still hope considering that China is switching its attention to high technology which seems to be going well at this point.

  • @Eoin-B
    @Eoin-B Рік тому +19

    I've 32 first cousins and 4 sisters. I really can't imagine growing up with none. Baptisms, Communions, Confirmations, Graduations and Weddings are near constant and I'm so grateful for them.

    • @rafanadir6958
      @rafanadir6958 Рік тому

      Lmao where do you come from? That's insane.

    • @Eoin-B
      @Eoin-B Рік тому +9

      @@rafanadir6958 Ireland. Dad is from a family of 10, mom is from family of 7. Both were farmers, if that makes more sense when it comes to size. And 2 of my uncles are childless.
      I've 36 first cousins if you include 1 foster uncle children who I'm also close to, but he's technically my aunt's kid.
      The amount of second and third cousins I have is almost uncountable, but many of them live within 10 miles of me.
      It reminds me of when SNL did a skit with and Irish dating show where all the contestants turned out to be related.
      I still think it's funny that my nanna would take in foster children when she already had 5, though only 1 stayed.
      The idea of that today seems incomprehensible.

    • @nothing9220
      @nothing9220 Рік тому +1

      Our planet isn't grateful....

    • @randomuser5443
      @randomuser5443 Рік тому +8

      @@nothing9220
      Listen you can take your nihilism and put it somewhere else
      Or better take the first step

    • @Eoin-B
      @Eoin-B Рік тому +6

      @@nothing9220 Our country's population is still not higher than it was 150 years ago. So I think we're fine, thanks for your concern though.

  • @vulkanofnocturne
    @vulkanofnocturne Рік тому +6

    9:15 I heard that not so much girls were thought 'incapable of providing', but that only sons were legally obliged to care for their parents in old age so you needed sons to retire on. Daughters were free to not to.

  • @Notfunnysam
    @Notfunnysam 7 місяців тому

    Sources?

  • @socaman123
    @socaman123 Рік тому +6

    Quite a few things in this video were actually traumatizing. The forced sterilizations in India, the millions of abandoned female babies...

  • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
    @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому +5

    This is one of the best videos I’ve seen on this topic. This Channel has really surprised me in the last couple of months - must have a lot more resources now. How does the team decide what goes in this channel vs the main EE channel? Just depends on who’s working on the video?

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      This isn't actually that good of a video. It's quite mediocre.
      He spends 80% of the video giving historical background. And only by the end presents the issue of declining birthrates.
      Also, the issue of declining birthrates is universal. The only reason Western countries are able to offset that is by importing mass numbers of immigrants, which in itself is not guaranteed to be sustainable in the future.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому

      @@NP1066 the whole history is very relevant to what lead them there. And the western countries don’t have such an abrupt decline which is leading to a very quick decline in population in China.
      Additional, the fact that China doesn’t have immigrants to help offset while also being a relatively poor country with little social safety net makes the issue significantly worse for PRC.
      PRC has a 4-2-1 issue. I person born in 1 child policy era, two parents born in the 1 child era, with that child as the only kid and 4 grandparents who just have that one grandchild. With little or no safety nets for the elderly, the grandchild will have to help in supporting the grandparents. That extra costs is also why few are having kids today even though there is no one child policy.

    • @Homer-OJ-Simpson
      @Homer-OJ-Simpson Рік тому

      @@NP1066 Beijing worker or someone using vpn from china doing it free?

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      @@Homer-OJ-Simpson
      Your cute little fact of Western nations having immigration as offset isn't some kind of clever "addition".
      In fact it's the HEART if the issue of why it's so disingenuous to even make that comparison and single out China that way. As clearly you wouldn't see that abrupt of birthrates decline in Western countries which were able to accumulate unprecedented massive population of non-native migrants for literally the last 5 decades, who contribute to stable population growth and kinda seem to obstruct your ability to recognize the difference.
      Eastern European nations, who are arguably part of the Western economic and political paradigm for at least 3 decades now, but yet never experienced any form of migration, face the exact if not worse prospects China faces in this issue. Not to mention other Western-aligned East Asian nations.
      If you look at the issue of declining birthrates GLOBALLY, it just becomes simply impossible to honestly single out China like that, as if it uniquely faces that problem.

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      @@Homer-OJ-Simpson
      Lol no bro. I'm not even Chinese believe it or not. I just hate seeing hypocrisy and double standards when I find it.

  • @TheJalipa
    @TheJalipa Рік тому +5

    At the time though, it seemed China’s population growth was unstoppable & unsustainable.
    Both nationally & globally

  • @jbl3792
    @jbl3792 Рік тому

    well said

  • @MarkLandrebe-ef5yd
    @MarkLandrebe-ef5yd Рік тому +3

    I saw this situation 40 years ago, how could China's government not see this?

  • @dulio12385
    @dulio12385 Рік тому +3

    Clearly they never played Stellaris; Pop is Power.
    You can make an extra sack of rice far easier than an extra worker.

  • @johnboy2349
    @johnboy2349 Рік тому +9

    Imagine a whole population made up of only-childs

    • @blossom1290
      @blossom1290 Рік тому +1

      And mostly males too

    • @johnboy2349
      @johnboy2349 Рік тому +2

      @@blossom1290 yes they must have a disfunctional society

    • @geokon3
      @geokon3 Рік тому +1

      ​@@blossom1290 I hope the "mostly male" part doesn't lead to war 😬

    • @blossom1290
      @blossom1290 Рік тому

      @@geokon3 yup😬

  • @kallenmorrison9483
    @kallenmorrison9483 Рік тому +1

    Hoping for some clarification. At 8:16 you say that China will have more retirees than France, Germany, England, and Japan combined. Do you mean the amount of retirees in those countries or the total population of said countries?

    • @NP1066
      @NP1066 Рік тому

      That's actually quite a dumb factoid to even point out. Like of course China will have higher numbers from all of these countries combined, it's a billion and 4 hundred thousads plus nation. It has immense population.
      It's not very smart to point out sheer numbers.
      If he wanted to prove his point he should have talked about per capita percentages.

  • @alexNicoleWa
    @alexNicoleWa Рік тому +2

    Every developed country is going through this exact same thing. I'm a china hawk, I admit, but this is not a china problem. This is global.

  • @Bicloptic
    @Bicloptic Рік тому +5

    For the demographic chart, I think you’re using the numbers from the times they over counted their population by about 100 million.

  • @Gabriel2005Gaming
    @Gabriel2005Gaming Рік тому +4

    if it was a 2 child policy we'd be seeing a different story

  • @HypoceeYT
    @HypoceeYT Рік тому +2

    In your last line, "forego" doesn't make sense. I can't figure what word you were trying for, but "forego" means "do without" or "avoid".
    In a smaller, comprehensible error, you used "compromise" where you meant "comprise".

  • @johnwright9372
    @johnwright9372 Рік тому +2

    The 1958 famine was caused by everyone being forced to make iron in backyard forges which was unusable and planting of crops was neglected.

    • @johng4093
      @johng4093 Рік тому +1

      This always boggles my mind that such a stupid idea would ever be considered, much less advance to widespread implementation. Says something about the lack of debate leading to bad decisions.

  • @brennencox516
    @brennencox516 Рік тому +7

    2:10 A bit off topic, but Mao promised those who fought for his cause (to establish a communist state) they'd be the land owners (and be able to keep their guns).
    While one could argue that people do own the land (collectively), this isn't what people wanted nor what they were promised.
    Oh yeah, he also said he wanted a democratic state (he basically said everything Sun Yat-sen said, but w/ a fancy new political system called communism).
    You forgot to mention cannibalism and parents selling their children (which would allow the parents to buy food for themselves, and as a way to ensure their children got fed. As you don't buy a person or a machine and just let it die).
    I know, you made an eleven minute video, so you don't want to waste any time mentioning these 'small' things.
    Mao was a good rebellion leader, but a horrible country leader.
    BUT, good job on not including the island of Taiwan as part of the map/territory of the PRC. But, you didn't include the island of Hainan....

    • @michaellee401
      @michaellee401 Рік тому +1

      Yeah.. seriously sad history many many had forgotten... or altered..😢

  • @MrShpoulsen
    @MrShpoulsen Рік тому +5

    Your numbers are way too optimistic.
    The Chinese population is already shrinking. Their fertility rate is 1.3 not 1.8 as you said.

    • @jerryinmon2731
      @jerryinmon2731 Рік тому +6

      It's even worse. The last figure was 1.18.

  • @raymondcasso7966
    @raymondcasso7966 Рік тому

    Worth it!

    • @raymondcasso7966
      @raymondcasso7966 Рік тому

      @@tzgh simple if all families focus on one child your good, if they need a mate that's where immigration comes in

  • @yingjianliu2085
    @yingjianliu2085 Рік тому +2

    Their population is already shrinking

  • @Turnil321
    @Turnil321 Рік тому +12

    I like how people blame Moa Zeadong for the one-child policy.
    Really shows how little some people know, Moa wanted more people.

    • @harshjain3122
      @harshjain3122 Рік тому +1

      Yes, even I was taken aback a bit. Damn, Deng had his fair share of f**kups

    • @harshjain3122
      @harshjain3122 Рік тому

      I mean, Deng is famous for him being influenced by LKY and then kickstarting liberalisation in China

    • @Shambles7698
      @Shambles7698 Рік тому

      He kill million Chinese people and still getting worship 🤣😭😭

  • @kealeradecal6091
    @kealeradecal6091 Рік тому +4

    There's always a price for everything . So now they are are starting to pay it now

    • @marczhu7473
      @marczhu7473 Рік тому +2

      Well the other choice end up like india economy.

    • @MM-br3gt
      @MM-br3gt Рік тому

      @@marczhu7473
      Lol India already has a declining fertility rate apart from only 2 or 3 States that are still continuing the population growth for India.
      If India controls the fertility rate of some few 2 or 3 States India's TFR would decline more and the population would grow even slower more (then expected) or even start declining.
      It's Africa which is growing with a fertility of 4.4 TFR. Most States in India already have a very similar fertility that's similar to Western country's.

  • @raffaelepiccini3405
    @raffaelepiccini3405 Рік тому +1

    At 8:00 I think you confused the world “comprised” with “compromised”

  • @ChristophBrinkmann
    @ChristophBrinkmann Рік тому +1

    Man. Who would have thought a stupid policy enforced for decades that experts at the beginning said would cause these exact problems would directly lead to said problems?
    It's almost like blindly conservatively and 100% rigidly sticking with a bad plan i

  • @peterzimmerman1114
    @peterzimmerman1114 Рік тому +18

    It might cause some distress temporarily, but in the long run it's not necessarily so bad for the people living them. Once they get past the "hump", they can have a new golden age or whatevr you like to call it. It's like a reset of a crashing pyramidsceme that the modern ever growing population and economy created which wasn't healthy or sustainable... No promises the future will be sustainable either but the best time to live in is in time of great growth and that comes after something like this has "passed". It's almost a natural law, you can see it in petridishes and lemming populations.

    • @hkchan1339
      @hkchan1339 Рік тому

      There is no golden age after the hump, unless China went into war and killed half of the population.
      There is no return of a super young population the CCP can exploit for economic growth again.

    • @rvltrstudio1484
      @rvltrstudio1484 Рік тому +4

      What about the suffering and potential famine of hundreds of millions of people in the process? What about the ensuing economic collapse as they run out of people to run the country? Are you willing to just brush that off as an unfortunate but necessary side effect?

    • @aaronsanders6465
      @aaronsanders6465 Рік тому

      @@rvltrstudio1484 I think its more likely unfortunate but inevitable

  • @fnbasic8875
    @fnbasic8875 Рік тому +7

    Should do a video on other countries facing similar situations if you haven't already. I heard Japan has an aging population with low birth rates as well.

    • @leezhieng
      @leezhieng Рік тому +2

      Japan is quite serious, 45% of their population are above 50 year old.

    • @TalkwithChrisTeacher
      @TalkwithChrisTeacher Рік тому +1

      check out Peter Zeihan. He's got a lot on this subject: China, Russia, Japan, Germany, and more.

  • @alkriman4182
    @alkriman4182 Рік тому +1

    Thank you for your illiteracy! No points for "it's" instead of "its," but "corroding off entire villages" is glorious. And you wouldn't score any points for making the boringly common error of "elderly people comprised," but going beyond that error to "compromised"? Genius!

  • @MD-on9fi
    @MD-on9fi 8 місяців тому +1

    Mexico is said to be the next China in manufacturing aspects. There is no shortage now or in the future of workers that will accept low pay and harsh treatment. Most Mexicans have 5-6 children per household. Plenty of future workers.

  • @AniMageNeBy
    @AniMageNeBy Рік тому +10

    That said, Japan and many other countries also have an aging problem, and they didn't have a one-child policy...

    • @MrAsianPie
      @MrAsianPie Рік тому +8

      Yes they do have that problem.
      Something that would make it worse is aborting 40 million baby girls…

    • @mstr293
      @mstr293 Рік тому +2

      They could literally get the population of workers they need from developing countries. Even during impoverished times, those guys seem to keep multiplying like rabbits.

    • @TheSwedishHistorian
      @TheSwedishHistorian Рік тому +2

      not as extreme

    • @decus9544
      @decus9544 Рік тому +2

      They'd have ended up with the same issue anyway but it would have taken a couple of decades longer to arrive and would not likely have been as severe as what they are about to experience.

    • @AniMageNeBy
      @AniMageNeBy Рік тому +2

      @@MrAsianPie Shht! Don't give them ideas.They could implement an "only baby-girls can be born" policy...
      That said, it's not really that difficult to note that around 2 kids is the optimum to get a stable society in regard to population equilibrium. The "two-child" policy China has now is not bad, it just was implemented 20 years too late.

  • @triadwarfare
    @triadwarfare Рік тому +22

    To be fair to China, the one child policy did help lift most Chinese out of poverty and they would have never been an economic superpower without it. However, they ran the program far too long. Then again, no one had a model on how this should work, and politicians were too afraid to move the needle and remove this policy until it was already too late.

    • @marshalLannes1769
      @marshalLannes1769 Рік тому +4

      China would have been like India, Bangladesh, Africa if it had not adopted this policy.
      Next generation would inherit shit load of wealth, specially housing.
      Only corporations fear decreasing population. After a population boom, a population slump is necessary.

    • @MM-br3gt
      @MM-br3gt Рік тому +7

      True they should have removed the policy in the late 90s or early 2000s now it's to late , China has a much ageing population then more equal number of young people.

    • @MM-br3gt
      @MM-br3gt Рік тому +3

      ​​​​@@marshalLannes1769
      Population of India it self is declining for majority of Indians don't include 2 or 3 states and say India's population is still growing lol.
      Africa has a more higher fertility rate then any of Asia does 4.4 is their fertility lol you wouldn't even find a aged African in Africa apart from African Americans in the US most Africans are literally around the age of 15 or 18 in any African country in each and every road or streets of Africa their are kids every where then more middle aged men or older men or women.

    • @himanshusingh5214
      @himanshusingh5214 Рік тому +3

      China's GDP may stagnate but GDP per capita will keep rising fast.

    • @hugoguerreiro1078
      @hugoguerreiro1078 Рік тому +9

      What lifted China out of poverty was allowing private businesses and trade to exist, just like other developed asian nations. Having fewer children would have come as a consequence regardless. Look at Japan, they didn't need a 1 child policy to become one of the world's largest economies.
      Plus, China also lowered the standards to consider someone poor, so a lot of Chinese are still poor, they just don't get called by that label anymore. China isn't a wealthy country because people are wealthy, they just have so many people that even with a small gdp/capita increase their total gdp shoots up, and it gets even more inflated because of them lying about their economic data.

  • @yuliagostraya3696
    @yuliagostraya3696 7 місяців тому

    « China's economy is not collapsing, but the prediction that it will, has collapsed - many times over the years » - Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning

  • @joechang8696
    @joechang8696 Рік тому

    Malthusian theory was promoted by social science people to the 70s , even though the overpopulation food shortage problem was largely solved by Norman Borlaug’s work in wheat. I seem to recall similar advances were made for rice?

  • @lbk1744
    @lbk1744 Рік тому +7

    I like that if they have implemented a 2 child policy none of this would have happened

    • @makeergod4153
      @makeergod4153 Рік тому

      3 is allowd but younger people won't born more children it's very big economic problem to feed child

    • @david50665
      @david50665 Рік тому +1

      @@makeergod4153 he meant when the 1 child policy was first implemented...it should have been 2 child policy....now it doesnt matter if it is 100 child policy...the damage has already been done and demographics issues takes decades to fix even if there was the will to do it

  • @nooneshome8746
    @nooneshome8746 Рік тому +4

    I just wanna ask what should be the alternative that china should've use to prevent famine

    • @cfosnock
      @cfosnock Рік тому

      Hear, hear...its only a failure if the economy would be better off without the policy.

    • @michaellee401
      @michaellee401 Рік тому +1

      It was NOT famine; there was NO famine. China exported tons of food during that time. It's the moronic leader and policy that killed 40-60 millions of people. 😭

    • @gtw4546
      @gtw4546 Рік тому +3

      Not kill the sparrows that kept the insects in check which devastated the crops and created the famine - yeah, that could have been a better place to start!

    • @cfosnock
      @cfosnock Рік тому +1

      @@gtw4546 All true and we could add build better damns, but you missed the point how do you end starvation object poverty caused by over population. The question is did the one child policy cause more problems that it solved... if your an economist who need a constant expanded population to bring in profits then no....BTW the demographic problems in China are also being faced in the USA, Japan....

    • @gtw4546
      @gtw4546 Рік тому

      @@cfosnock No, China's demographic problems are unique in that they also are facing a gender imbalance that other nations do not face. Urbanization and educating women always decrease birthrates naturally without resorting to something as draconian as China's one-child policy. As you pointed out, other nations also have shrinking demographics and they DIDN'T need to force it on their citizens to bring it about.

  • @helbrassen4576
    @helbrassen4576 Рік тому +1

    The birthrate isn't 1.8, that's the number the CCP want people to think it is, meanwhile scolars say its at 1.3.

  • @fernthefig1889
    @fernthefig1889 Рік тому

    You didn't mention the "last generation"

  • @PsychoSavager289
    @PsychoSavager289 Рік тому +5

    Some pretty big mistakes in the script:
    4:39: 336 "millon" instead of "million"
    5:52 "corroding off" instead of "cordon off", unless they were throwing acid at them
    8:02 "compromised only" instead of "comprised only"

    • @fp8901
      @fp8901 Рік тому

      Millon???

    • @glorioustigereye
      @glorioustigereye Рік тому +1

      For a moment I thought they where going to melt people's balls. lol

    • @VinceroAlpha
      @VinceroAlpha Рік тому +1

      those aren't big mistakes

  • @HypeBeast764
    @HypeBeast764 Рік тому +3

    This definitely doesn't look like western propaganda. I'll listen to everything he says and take it at face value!!!

  • @pushslice
    @pushslice Рік тому

    Is that “Nonstop Dan” narrating this one ?
    voice very much sounds like him.

  • @philipb2134
    @philipb2134 Рік тому +1

    Some years ago , The Economist highlighted PRC's demographic conundrum in a feature of one of their issues [Dec 17, 1998], which had the cover page splash: "6.3 brides for 7 brothers". I found it quite insightful.
    PR China has a system where a good policy can be rapidly implemented - unlike those decadent western countries which insist on examining and debating a policy over long periods. However, there is nearly nothing to stop a bad policy from being implemented, or positively instead getting scrapped. Mao decreed that sparrows should be eliminated because they eat some grain... but it seems that nobody dared to tell him that sparrows ate far more pests which ate vastly more of the People's grain... than the sparrows themselves ate that grain. Hunger and famine ensued.

  • @chrisblue4652
    @chrisblue4652 Рік тому +17

    It's interesting how the narrative is always that the declining population for China is calamitous and an example of China's folly with the one-child policy.
    Yes, it will hurt China's economic growth, and it will strain China's ability to take care of it's elderly. But does everything have to be sacrificed on the alter of gdp growth? Chinese people will tell you that there are too many chinese, everything is overcrowded, public transit, stores, parks, etc. That the school and work environment has too much competition and stress. Economics explained bemoans that rising labor costs in China will decrease China's manufacturing marketshare. But I'm sure chinese people are happy to be making more so they can have better lives instead of being paid slave wages.

    • @rockprime1136
      @rockprime1136 Рік тому +8

      But is'nt the reason why there is a feeling of overcrowding is because people are flocking to large and developed cities where there are opportunities for personal economic growth. China is known for its ghost cities so overcrowding should not be a problem. Low labor costs is what gave China its competetive edge that made them the world's factory. If they lose that then some foreign manufacturers may leave. I have always found it odd that a communistic country like China whose ideology is founded on the idea of worker empowerment allowed its people to be exploited by domestic and foreign employers for slave wages.

    • @spy_balloon
      @spy_balloon Рік тому +2

      When the west say overcrowding that's mean their road, unfortunately china using public transportation instead 😂

    • @chrisblue4652
      @chrisblue4652 Рік тому +3

      ​@@rockprime1136
      Foreign manufacturers that leave are the ones that have extremely tiny margins and pay slave wages. These are precisely the jobs that I wouldn't want.
      (this may be bad for the country, but probably a good thing for the working people - especially if it is the result of wages rising because there are not enough people to fill all of the jobs)
      I can't say anything about the ideology or political situation ... but I've spoken to many Chinese students and people visiting - and when I ask them what they think of America - the most common immediate reaction is that they like that its not overcrowded lol. When I complain about being stuck in traffic for an hour going to work - I've heard jokes about how its better than being stuck in traffic for a day. lol.
      If China's population was 700 million instead of 1.4 billion, there would probably be significantly less people flocking to overcrowded cities and Chinese people might not feel so overcrowded....

    • @fredrikstein2377
      @fredrikstein2377 Рік тому

      same problem in most industrialized countries. young people move to the large cities, shooting up rent to the moon, smaller towns are dying out. Maybe freedom of movement was a mistake. maybe some sort of feudalism is needed again. tying people to the land. not allowing them to live in another town or province without government permission. I am sure places like new york and tokyo would be better off if 2/3 of the population was kicked out to the country side.

    • @harshjain3122
      @harshjain3122 Рік тому +2

      There's so much wrong in this comment, I cannot-
      First of all, all those elderly people who needs their retirement funds from the income tax of the current generation won't just disappear, unless you opt for a gen**ide.
      Secondly, the high end manufacturing you are talking about is high intensive cost to set up and is already taken up nations like Germany and Japan. There's only so many industries of those kinds to go around. Besides, the advanced nations won't share their tech.
      Thirdly, most modern nations have followed the simple path of:
      Agriculture -> Industries(Low-medium-high) -> Services.
      Problem in China's case is, it's happening too fast and the demography of the cities would have naturally stabilized itself, 'NATURALLY'. By applying one child policy, they cut down their 'economic window of opportunity'(look it up) by several years, which they needed to transition to a higher per capita income society to support their social welfare systems for a transition to an economy with lots of old people...just like how West is bracing itself rn.
      Also, China's transit systems will still be populated for a long time, this time with a lot more elderly people.

  • @_yingrrr475
    @_yingrrr475 Рік тому +4

    I am a Chinese American living in China now and decided to move back to the US with my family after many considerations. 1) I don’t wanna my daughter to get brainwashed by the mandatory patriotic education starts as early as the first grade. 2) it’s frustrating to realize that it’s getting harder to communicate with the people around me including my old friends from childhood due to the huge knowledge gap, the three outlooks, and the understanding of how this world runs; I now have to hide my true feelings from getting judged. 3) you have to have connections to get around in China, and I don’t have any, which is okay if I’m single, but I have a kid and don’t want her to be in a disadvantaged position so I kinda have to leave here for a place where fairness isn’t a luxury.

    • @xinyuhung4261
      @xinyuhung4261 Рік тому

      你这智商也是绝了,哪里不是人情社会,你就说你是不是去美国刷盘子的吧

    • @_yingrrr475
      @_yingrrr475 Рік тому

      @@xinyuhung4261 I feel sorry for you.

    • @ruifenghuang1029
      @ruifenghuang1029 Рік тому

      ​@@xinyuhung4261 中国真的不适合所有人,就像美国不适合所有人一样。人拥有移动的自由嘛

  • @umar_mughal.3861
    @umar_mughal.3861 5 місяців тому

    Everything is achieved in a natural & organic way.
    First need to take initiative and recognize , the right way of achieving a task.

  • @martainroth2588
    @martainroth2588 Рік тому +1

    So the flip side, China doesn't have the one child policy and has 440 million more people, where does there food come from? Have they cut down more forests for farm land? How many more animal species have gone extinct to create the farm land to feed 5% of the worlds population? Where do these people live? China already doesn't have enough fresh water in the north half of the country for the people that are there, what does adding 40% more people do? I see lots of these videos that say there were problems with what was done, but none of them give solutions to the other problems that happen if it wasn't done. The other thing that happened from the 1950's to the 2020's is the life expectancy increased by 25%, so there are lots of things that have changed that people didn't plan on.

  • @mico77720
    @mico77720 Рік тому +4

    8:00 let's also remember that they value the elderly as head of house. It will be interesting to see how will the youth breadwinner will react to this really.

  • @Ridz149
    @Ridz149 Рік тому +7

    9:55 so many men will not find wives in China, so they are likely to leave China to find wives. This exacerbates the upside down population pyramid problem. What if China encouraged importing wives instead of exporting single men? This would help ease the ageing population problem. This could be done through policies and campaigns. Tax breaks perhaps. Foreign women from less developed countries maybe.

    • @JamielDeAbrew
      @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому +11

      There is some importing of wife’s, but in a terrible way

    • @thechosenone1533
      @thechosenone1533 Рік тому

      ​@@JamielDeAbrew Which is why it might be better to legalise and regulate it so that it is done safely and legally.

    • @ADerpyReality
      @ADerpyReality Рік тому

      China is anti immigration.

    • @b3tth0l3
      @b3tth0l3 Рік тому +3

      There have been cases of the trafficking of lower socioeconomic class women from Pakistan to China under the guise of marriage. Perhaps this occurs in other countries, too?

    • @JamielDeAbrew
      @JamielDeAbrew Рік тому

      @@thechosenone1533 that sounds better than nothing.
      It may lead to a poorer country having the balance.
      Maybe it’s better for China to be low on women so the remaining women get more power. This power may change viewpoints so that people move to wanting to have female babies instead of males. But that sounds a bit harsh too.
      I don’t know if there is a good solution for the problem, but your idea sounds better than nothing.

  • @pickleballer1729
    @pickleballer1729 Рік тому +1

    Ultimately we (all of us humans) will have to choose between mass starvation or population control. There is no other possibility. IF it is true that we cannot control population growth because eventually it will mean too many old people, then we are doomed to a future that oscillates between famine and economic meltdown. Are our economies really so fragile that they can only sustain one age distribution or the economy collapses? Kudos to the Chinese for trying the better, albeit politically suicidal path. We will ALL be there within a century or so. We should start trying to figure out how we're going to work it out.
    But we won't. Just like the global warming problem won't even start to be addressed until greedy business leaders have milked every cent they can from oil, so the population problem won't be addressed until tens or hundreds of millions of people begin to starve- probably not even then. I weep for the future of humanity.

  • @fredrickdemello2260
    @fredrickdemello2260 Рік тому +6

    I just wanna say that Sam Purple on the live chat was really cool, i hope he gets some.

    • @meetmeatball
      @meetmeatball Рік тому

      Ow man you rock .chat ended and i still was typing things .Take care man , have fun : )

  • @Allaiya.
    @Allaiya. Рік тому +1

    I remember a lot of people adopting the little girls out of China when that 1 child policy was implemented and in effect.

  • @Ghost-wm1db
    @Ghost-wm1db Рік тому +4

    You didn't provide evidence or sources for India's sterilization claim tho🤔

    • @shrin210
      @shrin210 Рік тому

      This video was about China, in India it did happen, emergency was period when voting was stopped and forced policies were implemented.

    • @Ghost-wm1db
      @Ghost-wm1db Рік тому

      @@shrin210 he still didn't provide any sources. That's a horrible thing that happened, & it's dangerous to just accept news like that without sources. That's how wars are fought over lies. Whatever the video's about, if you're going to talk about goverments doing evil things to it's people. You should always provide reliable sources. Otherwise, I can't trust you. PS, I've never even been to India. I just want verified truth