Bad information. The stock market is NOT the Economy.... What matters is GDP yes. But above all else is Employment/Unemployment. What they are showing here is relevant to the stock market as a lagging indicator... Simplified... If you follow the stock market you'll know you're in a Recession after it happens. If you follow the real economy = Employment/Unemployment, you'll know a Recession is happening before everyone else. They have this magical thing they call "revisions". They say unemployment is x amount for the headline numbers. If it's good numbers then the stock market will go up. Bad numbers, stock market go down. Now, what they have been doing is basically 'making up' the employment numbers, releasing it to the public, stock market go up, etc... What happens later, is that they do revisions to the numbers and show the true numbers... With that said, the Recession started in October 2023. They just have been cooking the books to get through the election cycle. Once all the revisions have happened, they will back date the start of the Recession to October 2023. It's all based off of unemployment numbers... If you use what they showed in this video, you'll know a Recession has happened MONTHS later.
Main street ALWAYS knows a recession is occurring before the financial world does, because they feel it first. Most of the stats economists look at are lagging indicators.
Never confuse the money printer fueled stock market with the broader economy. As long as there is free money to invest the stock market soar. This benefits the rich and the highly leveraged. New derivatives allow even more manipulation. Like zero day options which fuels the momentum trading algorithm by moving massive amounts of money in and out of just a few stocks while the rest of the market is in decline.
I work in a manufacturing tooling company. We normally are preparing orders for production about 6 to 8 months ahead of time. We are still making sales, but man is it slowing down.
All you need to know is that rates are high with the purpose of creating a recession. That pressure will take its course until it succeeds in creating a recession when the Fed will act late. This is not 1995, which had the internet boom and did not have higher than normal rates trying to crush the economy.
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other UA-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
To indicators: Add the fact that most Americans are TAPPED OUT, Credit-card, and car payments delinquencies rising, Commercial real estate loan reset, mortgage payment defaults & more!!! HOW can the economy do well in this world??????
We know the economy is slowing, but that's manageable as long as unemployment remains stable. Stock markets are distinct from the broader economy and are expected to perform well for the foreseeable future.
You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me Unimantic was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it
Stocks go up because people buy them. That's it! It's that simple. Trying to guess what the stock market will do based upon the economy is a waste of time. I have more than 40 years of success in the markets. It's not anymore complicated than that!
Something else to keep in mind is the CDK cyber attack that's still being resolved over a week later. CDK accounted for 2.6% of US GDP which basically won't get reported in time for Q1 2024 which wipes out the 3% GDP growth we had.
Be a stay at home mom and your kids won't have to suffer during the crucial impersonal years. 🙊. If you are not in a position to do that then question your parents for not putting you in position to be a stay at home mom .
I'm confused should we be in the market or not 😂😂😂
When you got too many indicators and don't know which one matters and which one to stick to
Bad information. The stock market is NOT the Economy.... What matters is GDP yes. But above all else is Employment/Unemployment. What they are showing here is relevant to the stock market as a lagging indicator... Simplified... If you follow the stock market you'll know you're in a Recession after it happens. If you follow the real economy = Employment/Unemployment, you'll know a Recession is happening before everyone else. They have this magical thing they call "revisions". They say unemployment is x amount for the headline numbers. If it's good numbers then the stock market will go up. Bad numbers, stock market go down. Now, what they have been doing is basically 'making up' the employment numbers, releasing it to the public, stock market go up, etc... What happens later, is that they do revisions to the numbers and show the true numbers... With that said, the Recession started in October 2023. They just have been cooking the books to get through the election cycle. Once all the revisions have happened, they will back date the start of the Recession to October 2023. It's all based off of unemployment numbers... If you use what they showed in this video, you'll know a Recession has happened MONTHS later.
How's that bond inversion going? The only thing propping up the US economy is government spending.
Main street ALWAYS knows a recession is occurring before the financial world does, because they feel it first. Most of the stats economists look at are lagging indicators.
Never confuse the money printer fueled stock market with the broader economy. As long as there is free money to invest the stock market soar. This benefits the rich and the highly leveraged. New derivatives allow even more manipulation. Like zero day options which fuels the momentum trading algorithm by moving massive amounts of money in and out of just a few stocks while the rest of the market is in decline.
How would the GDP look if government spending was removed, or frozen at 2020 level?
Good analysis. Your indicators seem to be moving toward a major Sell on stock market, just not there yet. What are you waiting for?
Didn't Cathie wood hesitate and sell positions early and lose hundreds of millions because she tried to time the market?
The stock market isn't thar strong if you strip out AI.
GDP is not 3%….take out government deficit spending and see where we really are.
What a great video. Gets to the point with objective data and points out that these things take time.
Love the research you do. Strong thesis and finding as always.
Only advice needed in here is just
Stay focused
keep track of market
Be ready when it hits.
Bulls and bears both has profit.
I work in a manufacturing tooling company. We normally are preparing orders for production about 6 to 8 months ahead of time. We are still making sales, but man is it slowing down.
i am also confused by this video. Missing some conclusion
if the economy
is so strong then
stop issuing treasuries
at the manic rate auntie
janet is. thats money printing.
isn't GDP being propped up by government spending and the importation of millions of migrants?
Great economy with 7% deficit!
All you need to know is that rates are high with the purpose of creating a recession. That pressure will take its course until it succeeds in creating a recession when the Fed will act late. This is not 1995, which had the internet boom and did not have higher than normal rates trying to crush the economy.
So why didn’t we look at this chart a year ago?
Interest rates rose yeah but you have unprecedented printing of money in covid which is going to keep market prices up. Rates did not rise that high
How does this align with the Bitcoin 4 year cycle? A top at the beginning of next year?
Lumber mills are shutting down again and prices are falling. That tells us
Boomers don’t want stonks to go down. So they clawing to keep 401ks to up.
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other UA-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
I'm short, this market has to correct, almost anyway now
I prefer GDI rather than GDP. But both are Lagging indicator
To indicators: Add the fact that most Americans are TAPPED OUT, Credit-card, and car payments delinquencies rising, Commercial real estate loan reset, mortgage payment defaults & more!!! HOW can the economy do well in this world??????
🥳🥳✌️✌️
Could be but in my area a suburb- 5 new restaurants just opened up with alot of employees in each.
We know the economy is slowing, but that's manageable as long as unemployment remains stable. Stock markets are distinct from the broader economy and are expected to perform well for the foreseeable future.
I believe you need to look at both GDP and GDI
U love your analysis, Thanks!
Bunches of down falls of the current size that didn't lead to a crash. This is currently a nothing burger.
Nike stock had a massive dump today. Major stock crash incoming.
Top video👏
David hunter. Expect a nice melt up. Expect an 80% crash after.
there was no 2021 recession (at 2'2''), you mean 2001
You have a typo in the video at 2:07 should be 2001 not 2021
When was this data released?
It's about time.
Next years S&P earnings of $275 is priced in right now at 5500 20 times next years earnings forecast
Anyone knows anything beyond bonds and gold that count as "recession proof" (no, this is not a bot comment)
ISM new orders is a leading indicator , yikes ! 😲❕
Please don't tease me 😅😅🤣
Stock market is not related to economy.....its about liquidity
😮MG $NKE Destroyed
We could say that economic expansion feed by data and expansions.
fewer people
First to buy stocks in the crash.
We mon?
First? 😅
Erster
thank u sir.
You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me Unimantic was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it
Good work
Awesome analysis keep up the great work!
So intresting analysis¡¡
your videos are best
Thanks guys..
Stocks go up because people buy them. That's it! It's that simple. Trying to guess what the stock market will do based upon the economy is a waste of time. I have more than 40 years of success in the markets. It's not anymore complicated than that!
in my opinion it really depends on who wins this election this year. i hope your on the right side.
Something else to keep in mind is the CDK cyber attack that's still being resolved over a week later. CDK accounted for 2.6% of US GDP which basically won't get reported in time for Q1 2024 which wipes out the 3% GDP growth we had.
Trump bull run, bet.
No recession -
Be a stay at home mom and your kids won't have to suffer during the crucial impersonal years. 🙊. If you are not in a position to do that then question your parents for not putting you in position to be a stay at home mom .