1:34:00 pedantry corner : The proportion of venuses and ankhs actually is a martingale ! Indeed, if you have x% of ankhs, each perkolated card has a x% chance to be an ankh so that the proportion of ankhs is still x% on average after perkolation - that's the property defining a martingale. However, it means these huge random proportion swings you get while there are still few cards stay "set in stone" in some way, hence the need to balance it early on (however, it's not clear we want to balance for 50% in this run). Check out Polya's urn for more details (yes, the name sounds oddly close to a shortening of Perkacola !)
It's not a Martingale. The important thing to keep in mind is that the last perkolated card had a different probability distribution than the current one because it itself modifies the probability. In a Martingale you would need that no outcome has any impact OR the last outcome fully determines the future (or rather its expected value) Mathematically: Let X_1, .., X_n be a sequence of random variables where X_i=0 if we perkolated Venus in round i and X_i=1 is we perkolaed Ankh. Then E(X_{n+1}=1) = (X_1 + ... + X_n) / n But E(X_n=1) = (X_1 + ... + X_{n-1}) / (n-1) Already by the denominators we see that these cannot be equal (except for the trivial case where we have no Ankhs/all Ankhs).
@@patrickwienhoft7987 looks like we're not talking about the same thing. I did say the proportion of venuses and ankhs is a martingale. Mathematically : Let P_n the proportion of Ankhs at round n, namely P_n = (X_1 + ... + X_n)/n Then E(P_{n+1} | P_n) = E( (n*P_n + X_{n+1})/(n+1) | P_n ) = (n*P_n + P_n)/(n+1) = P_n So, each step doesn't change the expected proportion which means it's a martingale.
@@pialba ah, if you define the random variables as the ratio you're right. Actually that's probably the more interesting setup since the behavior of the ratio is what we are most interested in.
Would a record for the fastest “fixed” deck be interesting? Seeing how many rounds it takes to have a deck of a single value and suit (including stone cards) could be fun to watch
19:03: If you were eventually going to sell excess Venus cards for money anyway, then there was a much stronger case to already sell excess Venus cards by round 2 (at 6:26).
Hey there. First time commenter long time viewer. I think I have a good idea for managing large numbers of consumables. When you’re trying to keep an even number, instead of having a big pile of one card on one side and vice versa, you could alternate the cards through the stack. Venus, ank, Venus, ank, Venus etc. you’d never have to count cause you’d know they’d be even. New cards that are added could be arranged the same way.
True! I guess, it's not that hard to count how many new cards are generated with each iteration. In the Stencil run, alternating Ankhs and Ectoplasms would've been great. In this particular run, we will want to use all of the Ankhs on Cola without the Venus cards getting in the way.
Fucking love Trading Card, probably is my own favorite Joker. It's not the most powerful or even the 'best' way to remove cards in a vacuum (Immolate is just too strong, if less accessible), but once you have it in hand, it makes parsing down your deck so much easier over the long term.
If you used the colas on a charm tag and managed to get all 5 souls, would the soul card not show up anymore? Also using the skips on juggle and orbital tags may be funny
I'm not sure if this works but do you think having a save file where you have gold on all legendary jokers except perkeo will give you a garunteed chance of getting perkeo when getting the sigil? It might help starting the run and save a few hours when seed finding
16:30ish: My thought would have been "oh, gold seal 2, snap up the Hack, also boosts the lucky foil 4" but you got away with it as always and I do see the value in getting purple sealing online ASAP
Not that I don't like this one coming back, but I remember you often mentioned that you consider records attempts done once you got a satisfying run. What changed your mind? The new Perkeo + observatory engine?
Observatory allows us to replace Baron and Mime with additional Blueprints and Brainstorms. Maybe this yields more Ankhs than we were able to achieve previously. Additionally, once we use the Ankhs for Colas, we lose all of our Jokers. However, because of Observatory, we can continue to win rounds without any Jokers.
During the all the records world record run you mentioned you were cooking up something extra wild on the side I think. Have we seen that run? Is this that run? 👀 did I make it up in my head?
3of a kind is suboptimal for baron and idol. However it makes it so both do work and since for percola consistency is most important it is pretty much ideal. to have 3 of a kind
1:12:05 I'd have sold a perkolator here, you'll want to sell it before triggering invis anyway and you want the money to get new jokers after triggering the invis
@@drspectred Indeed, and that's why the money generators are getting sold before selling the invis anyway. But that's not what I'm discussing here, the two questions are : - do you want to keep the second perkeo when triggering invis, running the risk of copying Perkeo rather than BP/BS ? I'd sell the Perkeo, but I see you didn't (I guess in Perkacola having more short-term ankhs is better, so maybe you're correct here) - then, when picking up the invis, given I'm selling the second Perkeo and the money generators in two rounds (when invis triggers), do I prefer the two perkolations or the money during the upcoming two blinds ? I'd have thought the money to replace the jokers ASAP after triggering invis, but maybe the jokers we're looking for are Common enough we can replace them in one shop anyway.
I'm sorry but I was aggravated the entire time that you didn't just dump a couple more Venus cards when they were clearly too lopsided, missed Ankh value imo
![First Ever Chips Only *Gold Stake* without Plasma (ft. A Massive Wee [Joker])](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/izqD26lKa5A/mqdefault.jpg)
So nice when sixth sense plays nice and gives you what you want instead of it being like getting blood from a stone like usual
Bloodstone reference? Also all I get is Ouijas and familiars
If it doesn't pay up, delete the footage and roll a new one.
Always lucky 😂
Like clothes from a soup store
Local doctor gets drunk off cola, invite all his Jimbo friends for a chance to try some
1:35:38 "300 dollars on the ticket? That's okay. We've done much better at other times"
Understatement of the year
I mean this with the utmost respect to the professor: moments like this bring me tremendous hope for my skill in the maths 16:56
This channel has become my new favorite thing to fall asleep to
1:34:00 pedantry corner : The proportion of venuses and ankhs actually is a martingale ! Indeed, if you have x% of ankhs, each perkolated card has a x% chance to be an ankh so that the proportion of ankhs is still x% on average after perkolation - that's the property defining a martingale. However, it means these huge random proportion swings you get while there are still few cards stay "set in stone" in some way, hence the need to balance it early on (however, it's not clear we want to balance for 50% in this run). Check out Polya's urn for more details (yes, the name sounds oddly close to a shortening of Perkacola !)
It's not a Martingale.
The important thing to keep in mind is that the last perkolated card had a different probability distribution than the current one because it itself modifies the probability. In a Martingale you would need that no outcome has any impact OR the last outcome fully determines the future (or rather its expected value)
Mathematically:
Let X_1, .., X_n be a sequence of random variables where X_i=0 if we perkolated Venus in round i and X_i=1 is we perkolaed Ankh.
Then E(X_{n+1}=1) = (X_1 + ... + X_n) / n
But E(X_n=1) = (X_1 + ... + X_{n-1}) / (n-1)
Already by the denominators we see that these cannot be equal (except for the trivial case where we have no Ankhs/all Ankhs).
@@patrickwienhoft7987 looks like we're not talking about the same thing. I did say the proportion of venuses and ankhs is a martingale.
Mathematically :
Let P_n the proportion of Ankhs at round n, namely P_n = (X_1 + ... + X_n)/n
Then E(P_{n+1} | P_n) = E( (n*P_n + X_{n+1})/(n+1) | P_n ) = (n*P_n + P_n)/(n+1) = P_n
So, each step doesn't change the expected proportion which means it's a martingale.
@@pialba ah, if you define the random variables as the ratio you're right.
Actually that's probably the more interesting setup since the behavior of the ratio is what we are most interested in.
I knew there had to be an existing statistical model for ideal Perkeo play. Polya's Urn has such a nice ring to it. Thanks for the rabbit hole!
hmm a suspicious number of venus cards
Would a record for the fastest “fixed” deck be interesting? Seeing how many rounds it takes to have a deck of a single value and suit (including stone cards) could be fun to watch
I've done 0 cards (pre-endless) on the Gold Stake. Does that count?
@@drspectredYeah I guess that means having only one card would count
i really like this idea because i struggle with deck fixing really badly
seeing regular perkeo and not kitty's version low-key tripped me up there for a minute
Informative and entertaining as always prof
19:03: If you were eventually going to sell excess Venus cards for money anyway, then there was a much stronger case to already sell excess Venus cards by round 2 (at 6:26).
rare footage of the doc skipping the gift card
vouchers came in clutch this run
YOOOO LETS FUCKING GOOOOOO
Loved the first percacola run, cant wait to see where this one goes 🙏🙏
Hey there. First time commenter long time viewer. I think I have a good idea for managing large numbers of consumables. When you’re trying to keep an even number, instead of having a big pile of one card on one side and vice versa, you could alternate the cards through the stack. Venus, ank, Venus, ank, Venus etc. you’d never have to count cause you’d know they’d be even. New cards that are added could be arranged the same way.
True! I guess, it's not that hard to count how many new cards are generated with each iteration. In the Stencil run, alternating Ankhs and Ectoplasms would've been great. In this particular run, we will want to use all of the Ankhs on Cola without the Venus cards getting in the way.
Perkacola for hand size skip could be fun, especially if the deck is built to support the massive hand size.
It's a possibility. The Hand Size is only for one round whereas, with the Jokers, you could theoretically continue to survive and play the game.
Hi professor I was on vacation so I couldn’t tune in live but I was falling asleep watching the vids
PERKACOLA V2
I LOVE PERKACOLA!!
love this guy
the professor refuses to eat out or order takeaway.
Fucking love Trading Card, probably is my own favorite Joker. It's not the most powerful or even the 'best' way to remove cards in a vacuum (Immolate is just too strong, if less accessible), but once you have it in hand, it makes parsing down your deck so much easier over the long term.
If you used the colas on a charm tag and managed to get all 5 souls, would the soul card not show up anymore? Also using the skips on juggle and orbital tags may be funny
I'm not sure if this works but do you think having a save file where you have gold on all legendary jokers except perkeo will give you a garunteed chance of getting perkeo when getting the sigil? It might help starting the run and save a few hours when seed finding
That feature only applies to Gold Stake
16:30ish: My thought would have been "oh, gold seal 2, snap up the Hack, also boosts the lucky foil 4" but you got away with it as always and I do see the value in getting purple sealing online ASAP
To this day I have never had a soul card from an ante 1 Arcana skip
just reroll for a few hours, it'll happen
@@praticlebeen doing that for about a month lol. I’ll keep at it tho
He uses a mod to make it happen
Don't waste your time
are rares/uncommons more likely in buffoon packs or is it the same probability as in the shop?
46:23 but cant you buy anything without sacrificing 1$ of interest? why reroll, what could be better than 10$+some extra
love perkacola round 2 if i learned anything from class time it’s about to get crazier!!!
Why didnt you go analygyph deck
always maybe with this guy.
my favourite record to watch being destroyed
I do hope some of the cola's flavored differently for variety lol
Was this a seeded or unseeded run?
Good morning balaters
Good evening
(I live in Italy)
You love to see that perkacola
We doing this again!!!
Not that I don't like this one coming back, but I remember you often mentioned that you consider records attempts done once you got a satisfying run.
What changed your mind? The new Perkeo + observatory engine?
Observatory allows us to replace Baron and Mime with additional Blueprints and Brainstorms. Maybe this yields more Ankhs than we were able to achieve previously. Additionally, once we use the Ankhs for Colas, we lose all of our Jokers. However, because of Observatory, we can continue to win rounds without any Jokers.
I like it when he says "money"
I repeated it out loud every time XD
During the all the records world record run you mentioned you were cooking up something extra wild on the side I think. Have we seen that run? Is this that run? 👀 did I make it up in my head?
nah, this is pretty tame, but true wackiness do take some setup
+3 on venus cards is arguably less relevant than being +1/12 venus cards, as a ratio
again !!!!! yay
this seed, is insane...
Still dodging highest obelisk, i see ? But perkacolating is fun anyway, can't wait to see how far we can get with the PerkeObservatory tech
23:30 no need for words
ooooohhh shi we so back
It hurts to watch you not selling plant cards for interest at the start
3of a kind is suboptimal for baron and idol. However it makes it so both do work and since for percola consistency is most important it is pretty much ideal. to have 3 of a kind
Run was invalidated when you didn’t take Cat at 20 minutes 😢
just unlucky, I guess
@@drspectred Two cats next time
pay it forward
1:03:25 speak of the devil
1:12:05 I'd have sold a perkolator here, you'll want to sell it before triggering invis anyway and you want the money to get new jokers after triggering the invis
Money generators are fairly Common, so we can quickly replace any we lost.
@@drspectred Indeed, and that's why the money generators are getting sold before selling the invis anyway. But that's not what I'm discussing here, the two questions are :
- do you want to keep the second perkeo when triggering invis, running the risk of copying Perkeo rather than BP/BS ? I'd sell the Perkeo, but I see you didn't (I guess in Perkacola having more short-term ankhs is better, so maybe you're correct here)
- then, when picking up the invis, given I'm selling the second Perkeo and the money generators in two rounds (when invis triggers), do I prefer the two perkolations or the money during the upcoming two blinds ? I'd have thought the money to replace the jokers ASAP after triggering invis, but maybe the jokers we're looking for are Common enough we can replace them in one shop anyway.
PERKACOLA PAS DE DEUX
I'm sorry but I was aggravated the entire time that you didn't just dump a couple more Venus cards when they were clearly too lopsided, missed Ankh value imo
seeded runs go crazy in this game
This is not seeded it is random seed😂
Bro thought it was seeded lol
mere mortals would attempt this seeded. not the professor
prof goes crazy in this game
Wideo