Upsets Are Surging in March - Here’s Why
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- Опубліковано 4 тра 2024
- March Madness…has been getting crazier.
The last ten years has lead to an increase in upsets, but why? What is causing this, and how have underdogs statistically faired? Better yet, why are we so drawn to underdogs?
Betting on the underdog is a bold move…but it might not be. In this video, I went back through about forty years of betting history, and tournament data. I knew the game had changed, but I wasn’t sure how the numbers would line up…
If you are new to the channel and enjoy this video, I would really appreciate it if you could subscribe.
Citations and more supporting info will be coming tomorrow…I am writing this at 4am, wanted to get this out before people started filling out their brackets. My favorite time of year….
00:00 Things are getting crazier…
01:50 Fallacy, and More Findings
03:00 What’s Causing This?
07:55 Our Strange Love Examined…
You Aren’t Imagining it - Upsets Are Surging in March
I have no idea how you don't have at least 500k subscribers. Your videos are so professionally and well done, it's weird to see only 80k subscribers. Keep it up, man!
The subscribers will grow (slow but steady).
ONG BRO
He hasn’t been doing it long enough. He will soon be on the level of all the big guys on sport UA-cam
Because he has only been making videos for a year, and just recently pivoted to sports which is pulling in views for him now. Just use your head bubba.
Thank you my friend! Even if I never make it that far, loving the community on here and the experience. Glad you enjoyed the video
You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain - The Warriors
Naw. Villain is the crooked refs. Warriors just a mob
And then become the heroes again. (2022 playoffs)
The Warriors broke the regular season record, to lose a 3 - 1 advantage in the finals.
Is this video even about the warriors?
@@beckettkriner8050 the biggest upset in history. So yeah.
Your channel is TOPDOG even through you are an UNDERDOG.
Hahaha thank you my friend!
There is something mesmerising about this channel and this style of storytelling. Being able to weave thousands of data points, a selection of key historical facts, and little anecdotes together is an art. It feels more akin to a conversation with a friend at the pub than a 13 minute video
Thanks Patrick! Glad to hear it
There's a little bit of a Jon Bois energy to how information is tied into storytelling, and related back to the humanity of sports. Really strong musical choices bring the whole production together, too.
@@siphillis yes! Definite Jon Bois vibes here. It's interesting to see the similarities and I think that's what makes them such engaging channels. Both go into detail outwith the sport and, I feel, it's those little things which are so memorable
In a world where the top 1% control far more than their fair share, sports sorta become a microcosm where the 99% can have hope that the teams who have less can still win because that sense of catharsis so rarely manifests outside of sport.
My favorite upset happened on August 15, 2004. A undersized Puerto Rico basketball team, beat the USA basketball team of NBA stars... we watched the game live and we felt so much pride for our boys!
Viva los Borinqueños!!! 🇵🇷🇵🇷🇵🇷
Thats awesome! I am sure in the moment it would have stung for me in the USA but I am retroactively happy for you guys
This was audiovisual poetry. As a college basketball diehard, you’ve constructed a masterpiece, good sir. You have such a way with words and flow. Keep up the fantastic work!
seriously! there's some channels that try to do roughly the same thing, it's all great but it feels surface level and mostly for casual fans. this guy really digs in though, and he makes it so presentable
Yo you’re glazing him crazy
You are by far my favorite creator on this app. Your commentary and analysis partnered with the interesting charts, graphs, and visuals just make for an amazing video.
Thanks Mason!
The way that you not only talk about a common theme in sports while also spinning a beautiful narrative about humanity and life is truly captivating. I would love it if you made a much longer format documentary!
I know the reason from an unusual angle: I go to hundreds and hundreds of high-school basketball games. I see more and more and more terrific players playing the game. I see guys who barely get noticed by scouts, 1 or 2-star guys if that, that can REALLY play! And they work harder than ever, get better coaching in skills camps, something that barely existed 20 years ago. These little-noticed guys, if teleported to 20 years ago, would be 3 and 4-star types.
Because of this proliferation of really skilled players. often the actual skill-level difference between a 2-star guy and a 4-star guy is quite slim. So top college teams full of 4-and-5 star guys often are just a little bit more skilled than the best-run teams that have maybe one or two 3 or 4-star types. Also, since there are so many excellent players, you don't see all the top guys going to just a few traditional powers such as Duke, North Carolina, etc. They go where they think they'll fit and also where they can get the type of education they want most.
Since the talent pool is so deep and highly-skilled players are everywhere despite what their scout ratings are, it comes down more and more to strategy, game plan, chemistry, and who's hot shooting that night.... And who's got more of that "want to" mojo going.
This makes the difference between winners and nonwinners very, very small.
I would love a March Madness style tourney in the NBA for non-playoff teams, competing for the top 4 lottery spots. I don't think teams that willingly put out junk should be rewarded, and you still should not be guaranteed a pick spot
While that would be entertaining and rewarding for us fans the obvious counterargument would be, "How do you get players inspired to ball out for their replacements?"
Does that make sense?
Let's imagine at the end of this year that the Spurs, Pistons, Wizards and Hornets played a tourney for the first pick. And let's imagine that this year's top prospect is a big man. Every big man on the previously mentioned teams would be, in theory, putting their job on the line if they won the tourney.
With all that being said, I think it's silly. I would also love to see a march madness tourney in the NBA. We just gotta be real with each other and admit those guys stopped trying the moment the regular starts lol
NBA players don’t want their team to draft players. They don’t want new competition competing for their job.
@@skipperknappen9222 players generally want the best chance to win overall regardless, even young stars on rookie deal historically try to recruit other stars to come to their team in FA. IF a team’s best is intentionally losing bc of this they’re probably more so on the Ayton/LaVine young “star” arc than the Wemby/Chet/Luka
no player would openly play in a game competing for their replacement
Better bet is for the tournament to replace the NBA cup
That’s crazy I already had WSU going to the sweet 16 without knowing anything about college ball and not having watched the video yet… rooting for them extra now
Go cougs
Crazy thing is, that team is young and sucks at shooting. They meet almost none of the criteria presented early, but they are an undeniable underdog. They were predicted to finished 10th in the pac12 preseason rankings. they ended up finishing 2nd and are playing drake in omaha on thursday at 7 on tru tv
Oof
i can’t wait to see your channel blow up. love the content, dont stop! i also believe that rooting for the underdog is a good way to try and keep the game close. the favorites to win a game dont need extra help, they’re already favorites. so i think it’s more fun in that sense to root for the underdog, to try and rally behind the team that needs help more to have a more “fair” game
just finished binging all of your videos. i know virtually every comment is talking about how well put together, thought out, organized, entertaining your videos are but i wanted to drive the point more. thank you for doing what so many other content creators don’t.
These videos are better than some high-budget TV shows. It's seriously only a matter of time imho. I hope the hoops content stays. This is impeccable.
This channel is what sports UA-cam has needed for years. Love the content, keep up the great work :)
This has become my favourite channel on youtube by far. keep up the great work!!
Some of your best work. I got chills numerous times throughout.
By far the best UA-cam channel on the site. Keep up the high quality research and you have a fan for life
It's always a pleasure to watch your content. Keep up the work 😊!
I KNEW you were gonna make a video about this! Thank you!
Great video!! Love how much effort you put into your channel
Love it man. Your manner of speaking can make me interested in anything!
you just have IT man. very few people making basketball/statistics content on this platform at your level. bell's on, i'm rooting for your continued success.
Excellent video. Respect to you Michael for all the hard work put into this. It is your craft. God bless you!
Very funny that less than a week after this was posted we get one of the chalkiest first rounds in memory
I thoroughly enjoy all of your content. The data is on point, the plot of the video is clear and concise, your persona/vibe you have not only appears natural and pure...but also has the right amount of humor factor as well.
As stated previously, im genuinely surprised you don't have more views, or subscribers. Bravo sir.
Hell yeah you're a fellow Zags fan!! My respect just went up for you
Was recommended this video and am now a subscriber! Awesome content. Love to see another Eastern WA guy who likes the Zags, Wazzu, Biblical references and solid data and interesting facts!
THANK YOU
your videos are absolute amazing and I love them keep it up the quality and everything else is all top tier. And you talk about amazing topics as well that are very interesting keep up the great work
these are some of my favorite videos on the platform keep it up man
Love your content. Will enjoy the limited ads for now. Eventually, you’ll have tons and you will have deserved it. Kudos, my man.
That’s unbelievable man! I have Washington State going to the Championship in one bracket. I love your video! A lot of great points. The research was on point as well.
Quickly becoming my fav creator on this platform, keep it going brother
One of the best sports related breakdown videos I’ve ever watched man
Keep killing it brother. Your videos are unreal
Thanks Andrew! Really enjoy what you put out as well
You are amazing every video you post is so thought provoking I love it. Keep it up man your work is unmatched.
Thank you my friend!
Your storytelling is elite… and you partner that up with great research and interesting stats + insights… I’ve commented this once before but you truly are the best basketball channel I’ve ever seen
This is actually one of the best videos I have ever watched
edition in this channel is so good. the story telling and the research is epic.
I appreciate your work my man, beautiful
This is an exceptionally well made video. I never comment on anything on UA-cam, but the video is professional, tells a story, and is backed by real data with room to elaborate. Keep up the good work!
Thanks Tim!
such such good content. never seen someone approach sports talk from a philosophical/psychological standpoint as well as you do
Great vid, but you done jinxed it. Only two upsets in the second round: 1) Clemson over Baylor and 2) the lack of upsets.
Youre one of 3 channels i keep notifications on religiously. Was at work so didnt catch until now but excellent video as per usual
Thank you my friend! Love to hear that
This popped up at just the right time, awesome video man
Another great video! Keep up the good work
You do great work, Michael.
Great vid bro🔥
Welp, you jinxed it. Tournament is still great per usual, but there's no Cinderellas heading to the Sweet Sixteen
Good. We get some big time matchups in this sweet 16 it’s gonna be a death battle for the final 4!
Listen. Your videos are amazing. You're my new Jon Bois
Great content, found your channel the other week and I hope that you'll experience great growth, your content deserves it! 🙌
Thank you my friend!
Michael, I've been watching your channel for a couple months, always enjoy your unique style and thorough analysis, but your shout out of Wazzu made me incredibly happy as a Coug, pep band member and student newspaper sports writer.
Especially hours removed from getting off the plane from Omaha, this video was such a lovely reminder of what made this WSU season so special in the first place. Losing hurts, but I love this team and the people on it.
Incredible work, thank you!
Great video Michael I love the way you tell the story
Your videos are quite Zen. I enjoy them, great job.
This is my favorite sports channel. I’ve never seen someone marry my two favorite passions-sports and data-the way you have. Keep up the work bro, you’ve got something really special here.
Thanks Jack! Much appreciated my friend
Your entire VIBE is buttery smooth Mr. MacKelvie
These videos are amazing man
This is the only channel I subscribe to, comment and like all the videos. Best channel on UA-cam.
Ur vids just make me FEEL bro 😭
first video I watched was about a month or so ago. You are the best in the game at these videos.
well done, great video and knowledge
Love the content 👍
Amazing content🔥🔥
12:15 i think that paradoxical feeling was felt at least to me in the 2016 season of warriors. That was a gut-wrenching finals loss for a team that broke records.
this channel is class
I literally looked if u had college basketball videos to watch when the bracket was revealed ❤
Had to do it…my (real) job hates me right now. Will hate me more by the EOW
The analysis in your videos are great, but wow, the production is unbelievable. Such impressive work in every video. Keep going man, you're gonna make it big
Don’t ever change your style to go with trends. It’s absolutely timeless how you present things. This channel will be huge.
I find it fascinating watching this NCAA tournament that whenever I'm told a guy is "the best NBA prospect on the floor", he's never the best player. Cody Williams on Colorado will be a lottery pick because of his size/length/potential, but he comes off the bench and doesn't lead them in any category. He fits the position-less nature of the NBA today, but it's clear that multiple players on his team are more critical to their success. The more I watch March Madness, the more I prefer the style of the college game. Great video.
You should make hockey content analysis you would be one of the only ones
I love your videos man don’t stop!
Another banger. As a data nerd I truly think this is the most underrated / highly produced channel. Keep telling all my friends to check you out! Good stuff!!
Thanks Tyler! Much appreciated man.
You are the Jon Bois of basketball
Well actually this channel does football too
But you get what I'm saying
Your videos are fantastic
Never expected the Miracle on Ice to come up in a basketball video but I’m happy it did
Just putting this here right now 😂 I was here before this man gets hugely popular w/ a million subs!! Would be so cool to see you and KTO do a collaboration 🔥
For SURE. The quality here is really done well and it'll be cool to see how it keeps going
Absolutely lets gooooooo
@@OthnielSonOfKenaz IKR
This video is absolutely amazing
Is always worth listening to an excellent narrator. Specially when he talks about interesting topics.
The physical changes your body goes from 18-23 is crazy so I can see why a team full of upperclassmen have a huge advantage even though they may not be as talented.
My man has a VCR and original Playstation hooked up to his television. Love it.
All I wanna do is play NBA JAM now
Amazing video!
Whaat this is so high quality I thought you were like Sports Base or something 😮
The biggest compliment I could give, your content is Jon Bois esque
This is good! Great work Michael!!
Thank you my friend!
I see what you did with sister Jean there (sr) 😂 Amazing video though keep up the great work!
bro, this man is so underrated
this video gave me chills
My theory is that from an evolutionary perspective you don't want to support someone that's stronger and a bigger threat, you'd rather support the underdog in hopes that they beat that threat because even though they're still your competitor they're not as difficult to handle
That and supporting someone stronger than you can be seen as subordination or submission, while supporting someone weaker cam be seen as having so much confidence you aren't afraid to prop someone else up even at no benefit to yourself
great vid !
Great video and you've earned a subscriber!
Appreciate that!
This is amazing content
Forget about the best sports content on the platform, this is damn near the best content ive seen on the entirety of UA-cam. wtf man, props to you. Incredible work.
Thank you! Much appreciated
when i saw March Madness upsets I was like "meh ya we know this", then I saw it was Michael Mackelvie and i thought I was dreaming I was so excited to watch the video
Agree with all of the reasons listed in this video, I’d have to imagine it’s also the “4 minute mile” effect coming into play where one team does it and that just psychologically gives other low seeds the confidence to believe they can win it, especially with how dominating UMBC was that one year.
Great video!
If you want an underdog, take a look at Nebraska. We are the only power 5 conference team to not win a single tournament game! The team is incredibly likable and if they are still standing Sunday night - they will be America's team.
This video is incredible
Basketball, philosophy, and statistics, beautiful.
insanely well produced video wow
Another banger as usual