I can't speak for all NYC physicians, but I can speak for those at one of the largest hospital systems. Federal politicians like Trump had virtually nothing to do with our challenges, which resulted mostly from failures of CDC & local administrators. Firstly, we knew in JANUARY that the illness was likely circulating in NY bc we have a large Chinese population traveling internationally for holidays. Second, we identified many pneumonia patients we wanted to test, but we were basically prevented from testing them by absurdly limited administrative criteria. I suspect this was bc CDC had such a tight grip on the tests & we didn't get permission to create & utilize our own tests until nearly 6 weeks after we could've launched it. Even so, NY health administrators shouldn't have set such narrow criteria that kept us from testing, e.g., we couldn't administer a test until a pt was shown to be 100% negative on BioFire (meaning that we'd run tested several DOZEN viral & bacterial infectious agents). Third, there were faulty tests & then a shortage of reagents with the CDC tests, which is why NY got approval to use our state labs to create & run tests ourselves. Fourth, closing the schools pushed children to be at home in close quarters with older adults which likely caused excess mortality. Closing the universities sending the college students from NY's many colleges likely spread infectious across the country. Firth, Cuomo's treatment of the pandemic as if it was apocalyptic caused a large number of (in my opinion) preventable medical emergencies & even fatalities. We saw patients in conditions that I hadn't seen since working near third-world conditions in a volunteer program. Advanced pneumonia & other infections, burst appendices, blood clots, etc. Even small medical issues can become serious if not treated, like one case I saw of a child with "pink eye." The truth is that infectious agents circulate in a population until herd immunity is reached. This doesn't mean 95% of people must become ill. Indeed, we know from the cruise ships like Diamond Princess that only about 25% of people exposed to cov!d will develop it, & many of those may be asymptomatic. Many of us believe that NYC has already reached it's 25%, since our random antibody testing shows positives for ~20 - 30% of the population. Closing businesses rather than simply isolating the vulnerable has had the effect of stopping young healthy people from being exposed, when they're the ones we need to be exposed to develop immunity. In summary, what was done in both the US & UK was, in my opinion, not the best choice, but there was a problem of accountability. No politician wants to refuse a lockdown bc they're sure to be blamed for the inevitable losses that come after.
This is what I’ve heard from many. There seems to be this odd thing where, at least when it comes to Trump, that he is this all encompassing person that has power over every aspect of every thing that happens in the US. Just alone some governors had terrible policies. None any a better example as Gretchen Whitmer who actively put COVID young COVID positive people in elderly homes, has unconstitutional lockdowns and STILL says no I’m going to do them anyway until the ruling goes into effect.
I totally agree, yet so many people in the media and in positions of authority refuse to even consider an accurate assessment of the situation. They would rather follow the totally discredited WHO. Here (in Australia) we have total lockdowns, 23 hour a day curfews in one city, 5 km travel limit, extreme fines for leaving one city, no interstate travel, no international travel without permission, mandatory 14 day quarantine at your expense. All this for a nation with laughably few cases and very few deaths that were genuinely attributable to Covid19. The situation is sick, and will remain that way for as long as the public health officials refuse to acknowledge that they were wrong in allowing the "stop the wave" policy become an "eradicate the disease" policy.
@@peterhelm6003 It’s very sad. There is this weird utopian shifting of the goalpost. Here in the US it was and some of this is different depending on the state (and I’m sure I’m missing a few steps here)... 1. Flatten the curve 2. Slow the spread 3. Stop people from getting COVID 4. Less than 1% positive tests (which is crazy because alone from people I personally know and their false positive COVID tests and people going to get a test, leaving before they get tested because the way was too long and them getting positive test results in the mail there would be no way to get under 1%). Australia is one interesting case and I feel for you because even the WHO (who like you said are corrupt) are finally admitting that lockdowns are a bad idea and the “deaths of despair” are going to be magnitudes higher than the virus itself yet places (like Australia) STILL do it.
Thank you for that. It’s seemed all along Sweden was probably right and that was probably because their health officials are not controlled by politicians.
I couldn't agree more. I was verbally smashed by an Irish lady the other day when I essentially said the same. A countries leader especially one made of states with localised power and fiscal control , really cannot be blamed too much for a novel virus like this one and I told her there's no point in talking about 'When Covid has been defeated or put back in the box' what is it now 45,000,000 cases confirmed. An estimated quarter of a billion in its first 6 months WITH lockdiwn measures. Sadly its another nasty illness thats here to stay. And in 2 or 3 years we'll be treating it similarly to how we treat the various flu strains. She wouldn't have it and told me I clearly didn't work in healthcare or biology. I thought I'd leave her guessing .
Niall is always great to listen to. One of a very few real non partisan public voices we have left. And when youre game has divided into two teams its nice to have a referee. Also, 2 crossed Broad Swords on the wall.. how can you not love that.
The obesity & poor health of Americans is a MASSIVE part of our issues here in the US. Also our large hispanic & black populations who suffer more frequently from Vit D deficiency in particular, plus asthma, low blood oxygen levels, and nutritional/fitness deficiencies in general. But the whole country has an obesity issue, which has been the primary indicator (outside of age) of how a person will do if infected.
Coleman, you are an extremely intelligent and open-minded person, and you don't get the amount of credit that you deserve. You are an inspiration to thinkers like me, so please keep up your incredible work. I dearly hope that watching this session has been as entertaining and informative for everyone as it has for me!!!
31:25 Unbalanced Woke narrowmindedness in the univeristies, Huge lean to the left in media and Hollywood, Censorship by Google, Facebook, Twitter etc. These are concerns that can become entrenched and worsen over generations. The worst of Trump twitter outbursts can only last 4 more years. I know which one worries me more.
The schools and universities are now run by people who were indoctrinated by the teachings of Howard Zinn, full of lies and hatred for our Founding Fathers, according to Mary Graber (sp?) and Dr. Arnn of Hillsdale College. Begin homeschooling asap and get elected to your local school board. In my state homeschooling has been popular for years but there are efforts to deny the brilliant students who were homeschooled the same rights to scholarships and other prizes given to public school graduates. POTUS said the federal money for education should follow the child, not the school and certainly not the unionized teachers who would keep schools closed forever and keep on getting their salaries for doing nothing.
Niall, you underestimate the determination of Americans to maintain our way of life. We're not just going to quit and say "we tried", whatever happens in a few weeks.
@Mitch Lang Get every single small business owner who folded during Covid -- people who have demonstrated competence and ability, and now have a lot more free time -- and get the best of them to run for every single office at municipal, county, state, and national levels. Once some of them have won, make sure the laws are structured to allow most of the rest to re-establish themselves in business. Make sure any who are willing to go into public service, are found appropriate places in the bureaucracy to make sure these laws are implemented, and turfing out as many as possible of the useless authoritarian pi**ant bureaucrats we have today -- and arrange for them to wind down the bureaucracies they find themselves in, with the goal of their going back into private sector business once the bureaucracies are shut down. That's good for a start.
Trump has shown great restraint in using federal power. He allows himself to be stopped by court orders and rulings. He resisted taking control of drug companies and manufacturing companies.
Great discussion, Coleman Hughes. Although I'm very much enjoying your podcast, if possible, have more discussions with more clearly left-of-center thinkers, e.g., Adolph Reed, Robert Wright, Alice Dreger, as well as with more hard-to-categorize thinkers, e.g., Thaddeus Russell, Wesley Yang. Your temperament and thoughtfulness make you an ideal interlocutor with good-faith thinkers with whom you'd disagree with.
I find Ferguson to have a lot of thoughtful things to say but he has been predicting 70s style-inflation or even hyperinflation for the US for at least a decade and it has not come to pass. Wish Coleman would have challenged him on this.
Ok I agree with your China remarks. Most conservatives do and I’m sorry, liberals do not see the threat of China in the same way. We see them as a greater threat!!!! Yes the quivers!
"Is it the President's job to make sure that people in elderly care homes in New York state are not vulnerable to Corona virus? No, that's not the President's job."
What could the last 4 years have been like if the American establishment actually accepted the will of 63 million voters? What type of progress could have been made on reconciliation and national unity if the message from middle America that "We are tired of being ignored!" was heard?
I love conversations with Niall. Sam would do well to get him back onto Making Sense. I finally read The Black Swan and Niall got a few complimentary shoutouts there as well.
@@just_another32 This is to echo the HUMOROUS sentence uttered earlier "about driving while Black". Nothing else. Do not read anything into it. He is one of the smartest guys around.....
4 роки тому
@@just_another32 To add to this: driving while black meant that the police would automatically stop black drivers.
Huh? You realize people who operate under different interpretive frameworks/political biases can be equally honest? Being wrong and being honest are not mutually exclusive.
Yup..if you're gonna do a cost benefit analysis of an empire, you have to measure the costs AND benefits and determine if the result is a net cost or a net benefit. The British Empire was a net BENEFIT.
The lesson about China is the same lesson being learned about the “work” ideology. Don’t think it’s just going to stay where it is at and you’ll never need to talk or worry about it. Tech in the world ALREADY does less escalated versions of what China wants to do.
Thank you for the fantastic content. Niall missed a big point. It’s not just public health missing the boat w COVID. Many millions in American frankly refuse to care about others because their “freedom” comes first. This also is a huge problem in America versus some of other countries that did much better.
@@rafrokid79 unless you are a confidant in his personal circle and there is some insider joke, what gives you the impession it was metaphorical. Seems like he said it as a statement of fact based on a situation in which it had occurred. A statement of fact in any case. It was a statement. Unless, saying words don't matter and I need to be a mind reader. Something I'm missing? Some kind of joke perhaps?
I believe he used that as an example he could imagine. I found it disturbing the coleman made a decision to diagnose and presumed that trump is not capable of genuine concern for others and everything he does is self-serving. Regardless of my opinion, I think Colman may believe that's factual but not liberal. I would like to see the evidence that proves (vs. Imagines or Intreprets) that in cases where her has acted in ways that truly helped others that he was using them as self-serving tools. All that said, whether I agreed or disagreed, I think these two guys are amazing on so many levels. They inspire stepping out of your comfort zone and using critical thinking father than being sheeple.
Good chat until Niall started going on China. Suggesting America has not profited from US-China trade is insane. Saying China has had a ‘bigger rise in CO2 emissions than the US in the last 15 years’ is shockingly misleading (the average Chinese emits
I also find it strange that China exporting surveillance and drone technology is bad, but if the US do that instead, well, that's fine. I mean, sure, the CPC is a plenty sinister organisation, but at least they're not revolutionaries. Police states tend to produce far less piles of corpses than revolutions do, so I wouldn't downplay the threat of "woke poseurs". Bolsheviks were also just a bunch of wacky marxists back in the day, but then whoops whoda thunk
Second comment, and I’d greatly appreciate your thoughts on this Coleman: I personally don’t find much worth in looking at possible alternative futures, other than as an intellectual exercise, because it’s unprovable and it’s difficult for most people to look at past events through anything but the lens of hindsight. I’m massively into history, and I’ve made two claims that people generally scoff at. The first, is that the American Civil War would’ve happened, even if slavery wasn’t a thing in America. This is based off of many facts, some of which include: 1. Slavery, while a major factor, was not the only grievance written about in the Declaration of Causes of the Succeeding States. 2. The southern states felt like they had no power in the US government. 3. The US Constitution says that it will not tax any specific state, but at the time was imposing taxes that effected only agriculture, which was a primary southern staple. 4.The US government was also giving more money to better manufacturing sectors, which greatly benefitted the northern states. With these facts, we can conclude that succession was inevitable, with or without slavery, and most of these other factors were the exact same things that the US Revolutionary War was fought on. My second claim is that slavery in the North America would’ve ended regardless of who won the American Civil War, or even if President Lincoln had decided to just let the southern states peacefully be on their way. This is based off the fact that during the Civil War, the southern states were unable to make treaties and trade agreements with other countries, because of the fact that they still had slaves. Most of Europe had abolished slavery by this point and were willing to keep their current trade deals with the USA, but not willing enter into an agreement with a new country that was holding on to the establishment of slavery. The sheer economic pressure of not being able to trade and make money, would’ve either caused the collapse of the Confederacy, or forced them to abolish slavery on their own. Granted, this might have taken a few more decades, so the way history played out is more beneficial than this proposed alternate reality.
I must disagree. It is certainly the president's job to enact immediate legislation which protects the most vulnerable people in elderly homes and convalescent hospitals. Knowing they were the most vulnerable, laws could have been instituted immediately to make sure that the elderly were not taken out as they were in Italy.
Anything he did of that nature would have been struck down nearly immediately (as it should) as unconstitutional. Travel outside of the country = controlled by the President. Travel within the country = States control.
@@nomad062 No one is talking about restricted travel. This is simply ways to monitor those in convalescent and elderly homes so that they had the supplies necessary to protect the most vulnerable. My brother's convalescent hospital had 50 cases of Covid with a number of deaths. No one was there to stop this or to mandate. Nothing to do with travel. While my brother's hospital was filling with Covid patients, Trump was playing golf and telling others the virus will just blow away in the wind...
@@starlingcity Can't tell if I clicked reply to the wrong post or just completely mis-read something, I distinctly remember replying to what I thought was a comment on Trump needing to control movement in the country. So based on rereading your post I have to say I'd agree my post is way off.
Worked at Bloomberg and is a visiting professor at a Chinese Uni... The "possibility" of a "coming" cold war... I Love you Coleman but Im very suspicious
Am I the only one who noted some kind of change in Coleman's facial expression after Ferguson told him that he learned everything about the race issue from Coleman himself? Mr. Hughes was almost smiling :D
This is a weird podcast. Coleman asks a question and Niall eloquently delivers a full and detailed answer followed by Coleman sitting there with no reply whatsoever. And repeat. Then the next question. Coleman has such interesting questions and he gets even better answers so why no interesting follow up? Niall Ferguson needs to speak to Sam Harris again and shake him out of his TDS.
"Peter Zien", has a very convincing counter position that describes the unavoidable fall of China, the predictable consequence of inevitable US populism. Also he talks like he's MCing a wedding he doesn't care about - so is pretty fun to listen to - whether you agree with his data analysis or not. He would be an interesting guy to interview Also, I think Niall's observation of China's life-cycle in reference to its historical dynasties has no predictable relevance on contemporary China (other than something tantamount to superstition). And instead, his casual Chernobyl reference was the real barometer: Communism, as opposed to a Monarchy, obviously has a much shorter half-life. (Historically less than 100 years). It seems to me - In almost all cases - eventually the propaganda reaches such critical mass that not only the population, but the government itself, decouples so significantly from truth and objective reality that eventually they just implode - blowing themselves up by accident or starving to death for no good reason. In a monarchy, at least, there's no delusion of equality or hope for improvement - let alone a utopia. And if that's not something to get up in the morning for - I don't know what is. (What am I writing! This is why I can't keep bourbon in the house. I'm out.)
LOFL....Niall Ferguson is appalled by how much the Dems will spend in their upcoming majority. Guess he missed the spending spree the GOP was on the last 4 years.
@@KrisWustrow What in the world are you talking about? The Dems have eliminated an on going waste of over $150B per year by leaving Afghanistan, working to dig the economy out of the hole dug by Trump, and deal with the deficits for billionaires tax cut layed on the shoulders of working Americans during Trump's administration.
@@nlabanok LOL...you are going to talk deficits with Biden's planned $3.2 Trillion spending spree? ..on top of the already Senate passed $1 trillion infrastructure bill... The economy under Trump was booming until the Black Swan called Covid arrived.
Interesting conversation. I have to admit, I am please to be challenged by Niall and to some extent Coleman's perspective on how dangerous Trump is. I agree he's primarily motivated by vanity. Unfortunately, I think not being re-elected might be too big a blow to Trump's vanity. He's certainly stoking anger and suspicion about the election result if he loses.
It was hard to continue to listen to this after Fergusson's lukewarm defence of Kissinger. He needs to read Hitchens book on him. His bias towards conservative politics dominates his world view. The radical left, as he describes it, would be seen as centre left in Europe. Even his beloved Tory party accepts universal healthcare
Hes expressed his reluctance to write a biography on Kissinger and even referenced Hitchens while doing so. Hes knows Hitchens positions and formed his own. I love Hitchens as much as the next guy but hes not infallible and theres much I disagree with Hitchens as well. You should read Fergussens book since you already understand Hitchens position instead of casting it aside since you already have a position im sure thats something Hitchens would advocate for.
Great level-headed conversation. Haha, co-dependace/inter-dependance between Trump and the Loony Left must be it. What, obviously, we need to develop more in human affairs is inter-independance!
The Hillary counterfactual was raised by Niall on Sam Harris's podcast, and Sam used that a number of times as an example of something that changed his mind.
@@lisalph8922 Niall changed how he thinks about how catastrophic Trump's election was, i.e. Niall convinced him that it wasn't necessarily much worse than the alternative. Sam has used this as an example of how his mind has been changed on anything (recently?).
If you can't predict what's going to happen in the next three months, you also can't tell me any counterfactual "what would have happened if..." with any credibility. You can tell me what you think people's hopes and fears might have been, or what their (stated) intents were. You can't read the mind of the dead, and you can't kill the butterfly.
You don’t know what he will do in the booth. Coming out for Trump publicly, in his academic world, in NY, could be career suicide. I respect the light he shines on statistics of police brutality, the bias of the media, etc.
We cannot evaluate imperialism as simply as Niall would wish us to. Take his reasoning and supplant it to China and Tibet and you end up justifying Chinese occupation, Chinese Communist Party occupation, of Tibet. Ask yourself are you comfortable with that position as a student of history? The CCP justifies its decades long occupation by pointing to the religious, quasi feudal pre-nation state system that existed before it as providing a lower standard of living and progress for its inhabitants than the Chinese Communist Party could / can provide. There are other serious moral considerations and issues around the right of one nation or group of people to invade another in order to access resources or claim it as its own territory beyond Ferguson's amoral bean-counting approach.
At 46:00 mark: “Trump supporters are not going to march in Washington. And neither is Trump going to barricade himself like ‘Scarface.’ This is all part of this Rachel Maddow fantasy world.”
I took some time today to transcribe these comments by Niall Ferguson, acclaimed historian at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (and husband of Ayaan Hirsi Ali). I highly recommend spending a few minutes on this UA-cam where Ferguson talks about Trump and the false comparisons to fascism and the Weimar Republic, made by Andrew Sullivan and others. Starting at 44:20 to 49:50 is fantastic analysis, whether you agree or not.
Link at 4:20:00: ua-cam.com/video/ZsDfLZHWSj4/v-deo.html
Full Transcript of Niall Ferguson Start 45:50, End 49:50 (by David Shuey, trying to capture every word and intent, and ends with the “Scarface” reference we’ve seen in memes and articles.)
Niall Campbell Ferguson: “I think it was always a category error to consider him [Trump] a fascist. Fascism isn’t like this. Fascism is guys in uniforms. The right today doesn't even do organized violence that well. I’m always struck by how UN-Weimar (Republic) the street violence is -- it’s rather shambolic. Especially compared to what you would see in 1920s and early 1930s Germany. So this whole idea that we were on the brink of 1933 was tremendously bad history. My friend at Yale at Tim Sneider wrote books to this effect. [Which Ferguson disagrees with Sneider’s hyperbole.] Well if you know a lot about Interwar Europe, everything starts to look like Interwar Europe. The truth is Trump is just straight out of 19th Century Populist playbook. He’s a very American Figure. He’s a snake oil salesman. And there’s always more snake oil to be sold. And in many ways that’s a more attractive to him than the violence. He’s not a very violent person, he has avoided war. He doesn’t really like the idea of anything more than a trade war.
So I find these scenarios today as implausible as I find them 4 years ago implausible.
I also think his supporters aren’t going to march on Rome or Washongton for that matter. I think they will say to themselves. “We had a go. We tried. We had our shot. We had our four years. And it didn't work out.
And off they’ll go to their Facebook groups. And they will have a wonderful conspiracy theory about this election to console them.
I’ve never seen [Trump] as a threat to the Constitution. The Constitution was built precisely for the eventuality that a charlatan would become president. People like Hamilton thought about this. They had studied a lot of history. And they knew the biggest threat to a Republic was always the tyrant who has the mob on their side. They designed the Constitution so it would be really difficult to subvert. Trump has the impulse to subvert the rule of law, and that’s obvious from the Mueller report. But his people didn’t really let him do it. In fact, the striking feature -- and this is a Jack Goldsmith point -- is the weakness of the Trump presidency. That will be the verdict of history. How little he was able to achieve. How often the courts struck down the things he wanted to do. How easily he was contained by the separation of powers. The midterm elections went against him. I ask people like Andrew [Sullivan] and others to give me ONE example of a successful subversion of the Constitution that has happened the last 4 years and they can’t. Because that’s not what this is really about.
This was a major catharsis for Middle America. I talked about this with Sam Harris earlier this year. The problem is that no one quite wants to accept is this was [an important] catharsis for Middle America. Let’s look at the counterfactual. If they hadn’t had it, if Hillary Clinton had won, the mood would be a good deal uglier. And now they have had this for 4 years, and it’s ended in this ‘Shit Show’ of Covid-19 and the economy in a hole. I think the people who voted for Trump, and will again, will shrug their shoulders and say “This is how good the conspiracy is against us is [by establishment, deep state, media, etc.]” and they’ll watch Tucker Carlson and feel pissed, but [Trump supporters] they’re not going to march in Washington. And neither is Trump going to barricade himself like ‘Scarface.’ This is all part of this Rachel Maddow fantasy world."
If Trump had simply worn a mask and encouraged everyone to do so, tens of thousands of lives would have been saved, and the wearing of masks wouldn't have become a culture-war flashpoint. The fact that your guest completely ignores the importance of leadership and setting a good example shows that he's actually not very good at this counterfactual thing.
A 45 day turnaround time production to air makes your content less salient. Unfortunately, in the 24-hour news cycle, your podcast becomes largely historical.
Pre-order my book:
"The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America" - bit.ly/48VUw17
I can only aspire to be someone who thinks as openly, freely, and rigourously as you do. Thank you for sharing. Keep up the good work!
I can't speak for all NYC physicians, but I can speak for those at one of the largest hospital systems. Federal politicians like Trump had virtually nothing to do with our challenges, which resulted mostly from failures of CDC & local administrators. Firstly, we knew in JANUARY that the illness was likely circulating in NY bc we have a large Chinese population traveling internationally for holidays. Second, we identified many pneumonia patients we wanted to test, but we were basically prevented from testing them by absurdly limited administrative criteria. I suspect this was bc CDC had such a tight grip on the tests & we didn't get permission to create & utilize our own tests until nearly 6 weeks after we could've launched it. Even so, NY health administrators shouldn't have set such narrow criteria that kept us from testing, e.g., we couldn't administer a test until a pt was shown to be 100% negative on BioFire (meaning that we'd run tested several DOZEN viral & bacterial infectious agents). Third, there were faulty tests & then a shortage of reagents with the CDC tests, which is why NY got approval to use our state labs to create & run tests ourselves.
Fourth, closing the schools pushed children to be at home in close quarters with older adults which likely caused excess mortality. Closing the universities sending the college students from NY's many colleges likely spread infectious across the country. Firth, Cuomo's treatment of the pandemic as if it was apocalyptic caused a large number of (in my opinion) preventable medical emergencies & even fatalities. We saw patients in conditions that I hadn't seen since working near third-world conditions in a volunteer program. Advanced pneumonia & other infections, burst appendices, blood clots, etc. Even small medical issues can become serious if not treated, like one case I saw of a child with "pink eye."
The truth is that infectious agents circulate in a population until herd immunity is reached. This doesn't mean 95% of people must become ill. Indeed, we know from the cruise ships like Diamond Princess that only about 25% of people exposed to cov!d will develop it, & many of those may be asymptomatic. Many of us believe that NYC has already reached it's 25%, since our random antibody testing shows positives for ~20 - 30% of the population. Closing businesses rather than simply isolating the vulnerable has had the effect of stopping young healthy people from being exposed, when they're the ones we need to be exposed to develop immunity. In summary, what was done in both the US & UK was, in my opinion, not the best choice, but there was a problem of accountability. No politician wants to refuse a lockdown bc they're sure to be blamed for the inevitable losses that come after.
This is what I’ve heard from many. There seems to be this odd thing where, at least when it comes to Trump, that he is this all encompassing person that has power over every aspect of every thing that happens in the US.
Just alone some governors had terrible policies. None any a better example as Gretchen Whitmer who actively put COVID young COVID positive people in elderly homes, has unconstitutional lockdowns and STILL says no I’m going to do them anyway until the ruling goes into effect.
I totally agree, yet so many people in the media and in positions of authority refuse to even consider an accurate assessment of the situation. They would rather follow the totally discredited WHO. Here (in Australia) we have total lockdowns, 23 hour a day curfews in one city, 5 km travel limit, extreme fines for leaving one city, no interstate travel, no international travel without permission, mandatory 14 day quarantine at your expense. All this for a nation with laughably few cases and very few deaths that were genuinely attributable to Covid19. The situation is sick, and will remain that way for as long as the public health officials refuse to acknowledge that they were wrong in allowing the "stop the wave" policy become an "eradicate the disease" policy.
@@peterhelm6003 It’s very sad. There is this weird utopian shifting of the goalpost. Here in the US it was and some of this is different depending on the state (and I’m sure I’m missing a few steps here)...
1. Flatten the curve
2. Slow the spread
3. Stop people from getting COVID
4. Less than 1% positive tests (which is crazy because alone from people I personally know and their false positive COVID tests and people going to get a test, leaving before they get tested because the way was too long and them getting positive test results in the mail there would be no way to get under 1%).
Australia is one interesting case and I feel for you because even the WHO (who like you said are corrupt) are finally admitting that lockdowns are a bad idea and the “deaths of despair” are going to be magnitudes higher than the virus itself yet places (like Australia) STILL do it.
Thank you for that.
It’s seemed all along Sweden was probably right and that was probably because their health officials are not controlled by politicians.
I couldn't agree more. I was verbally smashed by an Irish lady the other day when I essentially said the same. A countries leader especially one made of states with localised power and fiscal control , really cannot be blamed too much for a novel virus like this one and I told her there's no point in talking about 'When Covid has been defeated or put back in the box' what is it now 45,000,000 cases confirmed. An estimated quarter of a billion in its first 6 months WITH lockdiwn measures. Sadly its another nasty illness thats here to stay. And in 2 or 3 years we'll be treating it similarly to how we treat the various flu strains.
She wouldn't have it and told me I clearly didn't work in healthcare or biology. I thought I'd leave her guessing .
Coleman gets on Bill Maher’s show and now he has Niall Ferguson on? He’s rising up the ladder pretty quickly.
Stepping into ....shoes..
I think he's somewhat under Sam Harris' wing.
Answer the question
Don’t let him get away without answering your question
Still.. not answering your question
Niall is always great to listen to. One of a very few real non partisan public voices we have left. And when youre game has divided into two teams its nice to have a referee.
Also, 2 crossed Broad Swords on the wall.. how can you not love that.
The obesity & poor health of Americans is a MASSIVE part of our issues here in the US. Also our large hispanic & black populations who suffer more frequently from Vit D deficiency in particular, plus asthma, low blood oxygen levels, and nutritional/fitness deficiencies in general. But the whole country has an obesity issue, which has been the primary indicator (outside of age) of how a person will do if infected.
Coleman, you are an extremely intelligent and open-minded person, and you don't get the amount of credit that you deserve.
You are an inspiration to thinkers like me, so please keep up your incredible work.
I dearly hope that watching this session has been as entertaining and informative for everyone as it has for me!!!
That segment from about 44:19 to 49:51 is brilliant. IMO, you should release that as a clip video.
31:25 Unbalanced Woke narrowmindedness in the univeristies, Huge lean to the left in media and Hollywood, Censorship by Google, Facebook, Twitter etc. These are concerns that can become entrenched and worsen over generations. The worst of Trump twitter outbursts can only last 4 more years. I know which one worries me more.
The schools and universities are now run by people who were indoctrinated by the teachings of Howard Zinn, full of lies and hatred for our Founding Fathers, according to Mary Graber (sp?) and Dr. Arnn of Hillsdale College. Begin homeschooling asap and get elected to your local school board. In my state homeschooling has been popular for years but there are efforts to deny the brilliant students who were homeschooled the same rights to scholarships and other prizes given to public school graduates. POTUS said the federal money for education should follow the child, not the school and certainly not the unionized teachers who would keep schools closed forever and keep on getting their salaries for doing nothing.
Niall Ferguson scares the shit out of me every time he talks about China
It should! Try to catch up!
@@UREMODEL ok
@@stephenhill1350 true
I couldn’t agree more with the statement of “how much I have learned about racism from Coleman”. Please keep it coming
Niall, you underestimate the determination of Americans to maintain our way of life.
We're not just going to quit and say "we tried", whatever happens in a few weeks.
@Mitch Lang Get every single small business owner who folded during Covid -- people who have demonstrated competence and ability, and now have a lot more free time -- and get the best of them to run for every single office at municipal, county, state, and national levels.
Once some of them have won, make sure the laws are structured to allow most of the rest to re-establish themselves in business. Make sure any who are willing to go into public service, are found appropriate places in the bureaucracy to make sure these laws are implemented, and turfing out as many as possible of the useless authoritarian pi**ant bureaucrats we have today -- and arrange for them to wind down the bureaucracies they find themselves in, with the goal of their going back into private sector business once the bureaucracies are shut down.
That's good for a start.
@Mitch Lang Short answer: Rebuild the Republican party with all the small business owners who folded during Covid.
My head is exploding with all the brilliant information. Thank you Coleman! Outstanding as always.
This is fantastic. Thank you Coleman
Thoroughly enjoyed this talk. Thanks for posting.
It's great watching two smart people talk about these topics.
I hope you get him back on to finish up sometime, that was a fantastic listen and it's a shame circumstances cut it short!
Trump has shown great restraint in using federal power. He allows himself to be stopped by court orders and rulings. He resisted taking control of drug companies and manufacturing companies.
Another great episode. THANKS!! 25:00 Niall pays Coleman some nice, well deserved props.
Love this stuff, man. Just saw you on Bill Mahar. Great job!
So nice to hear quality conversations again.
Would love to see David Pakman on your show Coleman. Big fan of you both.
Truly a fascinating conversation!
Excellent point that we need to compare decisions of a politician to what the losing candidate would have done rather than to some imagined utopia.
Watching all of coleman videos and this aged well ;)
Great discussion, Coleman Hughes. Although I'm very much enjoying your podcast, if possible, have more discussions with more clearly left-of-center thinkers, e.g., Adolph Reed, Robert Wright, Alice Dreger, as well as with more hard-to-categorize thinkers, e.g., Thaddeus Russell, Wesley Yang. Your temperament and thoughtfulness make you an ideal interlocutor with good-faith thinkers with whom you'd disagree with.
Please, don’t speak to Thaddeus Russell. Insufferable, waffling say-nothing.
Please don't use words like 'interlocuter' as they tend to go right over my head. Ty
It's comical to suggest that Trump bears little responsibility in this.
I find Ferguson to have a lot of thoughtful things to say but he has been predicting 70s style-inflation or even hyperinflation for the US for at least a decade and it has not come to pass. Wish Coleman would have challenged him on this.
this ferguson charachter is amazing , and the young mr. Hughs is no slouch!
Wonderful conversation. Thank you. One small complaint: I found the frequent cut-aways to Coleman while Niall was talking to be distracting.
great conversation.
Ok I agree with your China remarks. Most conservatives do and I’m sorry, liberals do not see the threat of China in the same way. We see them as a greater threat!!!! Yes the quivers!
"Is it the President's job to make sure that people in elderly care homes in New York state are not vulnerable to Corona virus? No, that's not the President's job."
"The fault of the public health bureaucracy" Yes, putting words to what I've been trying to make my argument lol
Really like your stuff Coleman!
What could the last 4 years have been like if the American establishment actually accepted the will of 63 million voters? What type of progress could have been made on reconciliation and national unity if the message from middle America that "We are tired of being ignored!" was heard?
31:12 short-range teleportation performed by Coleman.
I love conversations with Niall. Sam would do well to get him back onto Making Sense. I finally read The Black Swan and Niall got a few complimentary shoutouts there as well.
great episode
So refreshing to see a young guy that is so articulate WHILE BLACK!!
Lol what a weird thing to say! What do you mean?
@@just_another32 This is to echo the HUMOROUS sentence uttered earlier "about driving while Black". Nothing else. Do not read anything into it. He is one of the smartest guys around.....
@@just_another32 To add to this: driving while black meant that the police would automatically stop black drivers.
@ oh! Sorry! My bad - I am rather slow today! :D
@ yep, cool :) (well, not really, but you know what I mean)
Great job once again
Great discussion, as always 👍
two of the most honest minds out there.
Huh? You realize people who operate under different interpretive frameworks/political biases can be equally honest? Being wrong and being honest are not mutually exclusive.
Excellent analysis
It's too bad Diogenes didn't have the opportunity to know Coleman Hughes and Niall Ferguson.
Yup..if you're gonna do a cost benefit analysis of an empire, you have to measure the costs AND benefits and determine if the result is a net cost or a net benefit. The British Empire was a net BENEFIT.
He said "bring Taiwan BACK into the fold of the PRC"
A common mistake, but Taiwan has NEVER been under the control of the PRC.
I didn’t even notice him saying that. I’m surprised Ferguson could say something so ignorant. Must have been a slip of the tongue
@@akp167 Yes. I am 100% sure that he is not ignorant of this fact, just a slip of the tongue.
The lesson about China is the same lesson being learned about the “work” ideology. Don’t think it’s just going to stay where it is at and you’ll never need to talk or worry about it.
Tech in the world ALREADY does less escalated versions of what China wants to do.
Thank you for the fantastic content. Niall missed a big point. It’s not just public health missing the boat w COVID. Many millions in American frankly refuse to care about others because their “freedom” comes first. This also is a huge problem in America versus some of other countries that did much better.
Can you point me to the factual assertion that he winked at the antisemits? Please?
The statement was metaphorical what gave u the impression that it was factual?
@@rafrokid79 unless you are a confidant in his personal circle and there is some insider joke, what gives you the impession it was metaphorical. Seems like he said it as a statement of fact based on a situation in which it had occurred. A statement of fact in any case. It was a statement.
Unless, saying words don't matter and I need to be a mind reader. Something I'm missing? Some kind of joke perhaps?
@@UREMODEL I dont even know how to begin to answer that... I think it would pay to listen to the audio again.
@@rafrokid79 your over thinking it.
I believe he used that as an example he could imagine. I found it disturbing the coleman made a decision to diagnose and presumed that trump is not capable of genuine concern for others and everything he does is self-serving. Regardless of my opinion, I think Colman may believe that's factual but not liberal.
I would like to see the evidence that proves (vs. Imagines or
Intreprets) that in cases where her has acted in ways that truly helped others that he was using them as self-serving tools.
All that said, whether I agreed or disagreed, I think these two guys are amazing on so many levels. They inspire stepping out of your comfort zone and using critical thinking father than being sheeple.
Anyone else picturing Trump as Tony Montana in the final scenes of Scarface?
Good chat until Niall started going on China. Suggesting America has not profited from US-China trade is insane. Saying China has had a ‘bigger rise in CO2 emissions than the US in the last 15 years’ is shockingly misleading (the average Chinese emits
I also find it strange that China exporting surveillance and drone technology is bad, but if the US do that instead, well, that's fine. I mean, sure, the CPC is a plenty sinister organisation, but at least they're not revolutionaries. Police states tend to produce far less piles of corpses than revolutions do, so I wouldn't downplay the threat of "woke poseurs". Bolsheviks were also just a bunch of wacky marxists back in the day, but then whoops whoda thunk
Niall is the COOLEST intellectual of our time!
He's alright
Niall is great. Gotta get Ayaan next.
Yes, that'd be good!
Why did the conversation end so suddenly? Is there more?
WiFi failure.
Second comment, and I’d greatly appreciate your thoughts on this Coleman:
I personally don’t find much worth in looking at possible alternative futures, other than as an intellectual exercise, because it’s unprovable and it’s difficult for most people to look at past events through anything but the lens of hindsight. I’m massively into history, and I’ve made two claims that people generally scoff at. The first, is that the American Civil War would’ve happened, even if slavery wasn’t a thing in America. This is based off of many facts, some of which include:
1. Slavery, while a major factor, was not the only grievance written about in the Declaration of Causes of the Succeeding States.
2. The southern states felt like they had no power in the US government.
3. The US Constitution says that it will not tax any specific state, but at the time was imposing taxes that effected only agriculture, which was a primary southern staple.
4.The US government was also giving more money to better manufacturing sectors, which greatly benefitted the northern states.
With these facts, we can conclude that succession was inevitable, with or without slavery, and most of these other factors were the exact same things that the US Revolutionary War was fought on.
My second claim is that slavery in the North America would’ve ended regardless of who won the American Civil War, or even if President Lincoln had decided to just let the southern states peacefully be on their way. This is based off the fact that during the Civil War, the southern states were unable to make treaties and trade agreements with other countries, because of the fact that they still had slaves. Most of Europe had abolished slavery by this point and were willing to keep their current trade deals with the USA, but not willing enter into an agreement with a new country that was holding on to the establishment of slavery. The sheer economic pressure of not being able to trade and make money, would’ve either caused the collapse of the Confederacy, or forced them to abolish slavery on their own. Granted, this might have taken a few more decades, so the way history played out is more beneficial than this proposed alternate reality.
Great conversation, can you do a follow up with Niall to keep it going
I must disagree. It is certainly the president's job to enact immediate legislation which protects the most vulnerable people in elderly homes and convalescent hospitals. Knowing they were the most vulnerable, laws could have been instituted immediately to make sure that the elderly were not taken out as they were in Italy.
Anything he did of that nature would have been struck down nearly immediately (as it should) as unconstitutional. Travel outside of the country = controlled by the President. Travel within the country = States control.
@@nomad062 No one is talking about restricted travel. This is simply ways to monitor those in convalescent and elderly homes so that they had the supplies necessary to protect the most vulnerable. My brother's convalescent hospital had 50 cases of Covid with a number of deaths. No one was there to stop this or to mandate. Nothing to do with travel. While my brother's hospital was filling with Covid patients, Trump was playing golf and telling others the virus will just blow away in the wind...
@@starlingcity Can't tell if I clicked reply to the wrong post or just completely mis-read something, I distinctly remember replying to what I thought was a comment on Trump needing to control movement in the country. So based on rereading your post I have to say I'd agree my post is way off.
Great interview. One suggestion: Coleman needs to be slightly less hesitant when he asks questions and raises points.
Why are these loaded a month later ?
He’s putting them on patreon first
@@crayola8skies Thanks, I was wondering too.
Well, now that you said it; I may march!
24:32 Biden “Antifa is an idea, not a group” That’s what I’ve heard him say when pressed in the debates to condemn antifa. Pretty weak indeed
Worked at Bloomberg and is a visiting professor at a Chinese Uni... The "possibility" of a "coming" cold war...
I Love you Coleman but Im very suspicious
Hello from Glasgow, Niall. 🏴
Hello from Greenock, Jonny!
@@grumpywasp4533 hello 😂
Hello from Dunfy, neebor
Another weegie :)
25:50 >I am a simple immigrant from Scotland who will never understand these issues.
He sounds pretty woke to me.
Am I the only one who noted some kind of change in Coleman's facial expression after Ferguson told him that he learned everything about the race issue from Coleman himself?
Mr. Hughes was almost smiling :D
But he never smiles. Must have been an illusion.
@@just_another32 I said "almost" XD
@@SiboWoW haha!
This is a weird podcast. Coleman asks a question and Niall eloquently delivers a full and detailed answer followed by Coleman sitting there with no reply whatsoever. And repeat. Then the next question. Coleman has such interesting questions and he gets even better answers so why no interesting follow up? Niall Ferguson needs to speak to Sam Harris again and shake him out of his TDS.
this interview is perfect r/agedlikemilk material loool
What aspect in particular stuck out to you ?
@@DDeCicco 43:35 stuck out to me
Why isnt this longer?
Are you kidding me? God I wish I could call in!
fascinating talk so far!
"Peter Zien", has a very convincing counter position that describes the unavoidable fall of China, the predictable consequence of inevitable US populism. Also he talks like he's MCing a wedding he doesn't care about - so is pretty fun to listen to - whether you agree with his data analysis or not. He would be an interesting guy to interview
Also, I think Niall's observation of China's life-cycle in reference to its historical dynasties has no predictable relevance on contemporary China (other than something tantamount to superstition). And instead, his casual Chernobyl reference was the real barometer: Communism, as opposed to a Monarchy, obviously has a much shorter half-life. (Historically less than 100 years). It seems to me - In almost all cases - eventually the propaganda reaches such critical mass that not only the population, but the government itself, decouples so significantly from truth and objective reality that eventually they just implode - blowing themselves up by accident or starving to death for no good reason. In a monarchy, at least, there's no delusion of equality or hope for improvement - let alone a utopia. And if that's not something to get up in the morning for - I don't know what is.
(What am I writing! This is why I can't keep bourbon in the house. I'm out.)
LOFL....Niall Ferguson is appalled by how much the Dems will spend in their upcoming majority. Guess he missed the spending spree the GOP was on the last 4 years.
this comment didn't age well
@@KrisWustrow What in the world are you talking about? The Dems have eliminated an on going waste of over $150B per year by leaving Afghanistan, working to dig the economy out of the hole dug by Trump, and deal with the deficits for billionaires tax cut layed on the shoulders of working Americans during Trump's administration.
@@nlabanok LOL...you are going to talk deficits with Biden's planned $3.2 Trillion spending spree? ..on top of the already Senate passed $1 trillion infrastructure bill... The economy under Trump was booming until the Black Swan called Covid arrived.
Please speak louder or turn your volume up. we have to sit in a tomb to hear you.
This talk defuse human kife
Interesting conversation. I have to admit, I am please to be challenged by Niall and to some extent Coleman's perspective on how dangerous Trump is. I agree he's primarily motivated by vanity. Unfortunately, I think not being re-elected might be too big a blow to Trump's vanity. He's certainly stoking anger and suspicion about the election result if he loses.
It was hard to continue to listen to this after Fergusson's lukewarm defence of Kissinger. He needs to read Hitchens book on him. His bias towards conservative politics dominates his world view. The radical left, as he describes it, would be seen as centre left in Europe. Even his beloved Tory party accepts universal healthcare
Hes expressed his reluctance to write a biography on Kissinger and even referenced Hitchens while doing so. Hes knows Hitchens positions and formed his own. I love Hitchens as much as the next guy but hes not infallible and theres much I disagree with Hitchens as well. You should read Fergussens book since you already understand Hitchens position instead of casting it aside since you already have a position im sure thats something Hitchens would advocate for.
No Zionist bankers politicians media/tech monopolies NGOs No problems
Great level-headed conversation. Haha, co-dependace/inter-dependance between Trump and the Loony Left must be it. What, obviously, we need to develop more in human affairs is inter-independance!
You too, Coleman. 🏴😂
The Hillary counterfactual was raised by Niall on Sam Harris's podcast, and Sam used that a number of times as an example of something that changed his mind.
Changed his mind on what?
@@lisalph8922 Niall changed how he thinks about how catastrophic Trump's election was, i.e. Niall convinced him that it wasn't necessarily much worse than the alternative. Sam has used this as an example of how his mind has been changed on anything (recently?).
If you can't predict what's going to happen in the next three months, you also can't tell me any counterfactual "what would have happened if..." with any credibility. You can tell me what you think people's hopes and fears might have been, or what their (stated) intents were. You can't read the mind of the dead, and you can't kill the butterfly.
When Coleman said in one of the podcasts that he was voting for Biden, I lost a lot of respect for him. I wonder if he has changed his mind.
You don’t know what he will do in the booth. Coming out for Trump publicly, in his academic world, in NY, could be career suicide. I respect the light he shines on statistics of police brutality, the bias of the media, etc.
So what happened with the storming of the Capitol Hill last week by Trump supporters and domestic extreme groups Niall?
We cannot evaluate imperialism as simply as Niall would wish us to. Take his reasoning and supplant it to China and Tibet and you end up justifying Chinese occupation, Chinese Communist Party occupation, of Tibet. Ask yourself are you comfortable with that position as a student of history? The CCP justifies its decades long occupation by pointing to the religious, quasi feudal pre-nation state system that existed before it as providing a lower standard of living and progress for its inhabitants than the Chinese Communist Party could / can provide. There are other serious moral considerations and issues around the right of one nation or group of people to invade another in order to access resources or claim it as its own territory beyond Ferguson's amoral bean-counting approach.
I voted for Trump and I am not a QAnon person... nor do I watch Fox TV... so stop with that, please. I'm not in "conspiracy land." Come on!!!
I think Niall is pronounced Nyall...
I have liked this channel but find this conversation basically accurate but sooo shortsighted that I am quite disappointed in this channel.
At 46:00 mark:
“Trump supporters are not going to march in Washington. And neither is Trump going to barricade himself like ‘Scarface.’ This is all part of this Rachel Maddow fantasy world.”
I took some time today to transcribe these comments by Niall Ferguson, acclaimed historian at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (and husband of Ayaan Hirsi Ali). I highly recommend spending a few minutes on this UA-cam where Ferguson talks about Trump and the false comparisons to fascism and the Weimar Republic, made by Andrew Sullivan and others. Starting at 44:20 to 49:50 is fantastic analysis, whether you agree or not.
Link at 4:20:00: ua-cam.com/video/ZsDfLZHWSj4/v-deo.html
Full Transcript of Niall Ferguson Start 45:50, End 49:50 (by David Shuey, trying to capture every word and intent, and ends with the “Scarface” reference we’ve seen in memes and articles.)
Niall Campbell Ferguson: “I think it was always a category error to consider him [Trump] a fascist. Fascism isn’t like this. Fascism is guys in uniforms. The right today doesn't even do organized violence that well. I’m always struck by how UN-Weimar (Republic) the street violence is -- it’s rather shambolic. Especially compared to what you would see in 1920s and early 1930s Germany. So this whole idea that we were on the brink of 1933 was tremendously bad history. My friend at Yale at Tim Sneider wrote books to this effect. [Which Ferguson disagrees with Sneider’s hyperbole.] Well if you know a lot about Interwar Europe, everything starts to look like Interwar Europe. The truth is Trump is just straight out of 19th Century Populist playbook. He’s a very American Figure. He’s a snake oil salesman. And there’s always more snake oil to be sold. And in many ways that’s a more attractive to him than the violence. He’s not a very violent person, he has avoided war. He doesn’t really like the idea of anything more than a trade war.
So I find these scenarios today as implausible as I find them 4 years ago implausible.
I also think his supporters aren’t going to march on Rome or Washongton for that matter. I think they will say to themselves. “We had a go. We tried. We had our shot. We had our four years. And it didn't work out.
And off they’ll go to their Facebook groups. And they will have a wonderful conspiracy theory about this election to console them.
I’ve never seen [Trump] as a threat to the Constitution. The Constitution was built precisely for the eventuality that a charlatan would become president. People like Hamilton thought about this. They had studied a lot of history. And they knew the biggest threat to a Republic was always the tyrant who has the mob on their side. They designed the Constitution so it would be really difficult to subvert. Trump has the impulse to subvert the rule of law, and that’s obvious from the Mueller report. But his people didn’t really let him do it. In fact, the striking feature -- and this is a Jack Goldsmith point -- is the weakness of the Trump presidency. That will be the verdict of history. How little he was able to achieve. How often the courts struck down the things he wanted to do. How easily he was contained by the separation of powers. The midterm elections went against him. I ask people like Andrew [Sullivan] and others to give me ONE example of a successful subversion of the Constitution that has happened the last 4 years and they can’t. Because that’s not what this is really about.
This was a major catharsis for Middle America. I talked about this with Sam Harris earlier this year. The problem is that no one quite wants to accept is this was [an important] catharsis for Middle America. Let’s look at the counterfactual. If they hadn’t had it, if Hillary Clinton had won, the mood would be a good deal uglier. And now they have had this for 4 years, and it’s ended in this ‘Shit Show’ of Covid-19 and the economy in a hole. I think the people who voted for Trump, and will again, will shrug their shoulders and say “This is how good the conspiracy is against us is [by establishment, deep state, media, etc.]” and they’ll watch Tucker Carlson and feel pissed, but [Trump supporters] they’re not going to march in Washington. And neither is Trump going to barricade himself like ‘Scarface.’ This is all part of this Rachel Maddow fantasy world."
He over-estimates the value of his counterfactuals.
Such as?
Wow, 43:45 hasn't aged well at all, has it?
The only partisan you've had. Not your style. I follow them elsewhere and look to you for among the most nuanced and reasonable.
my guyyyy
Niall Ferguson: "Biden is least innocuous"
Not true
I caught that too. Clearly he meant most innocuous.
Coleman is a walking SNL sketch.
Pro tip: Listen at 1.25 speed.
Drixidamus Amateur tip: Listen at 0,75 speed.
Speed up your brain by training it to 1.75x
If Hillary had been elected- 3rd Conditional.
For a moment I thought it was the other Furgeson that predicted millions of deaths and was caught with his mistress lol
After the election, Republican Congresspeople will deny having known Trump. #DonaldJWho?
If Trump had simply worn a mask and encouraged everyone to do so, tens of thousands of lives would have been saved, and the wearing of masks wouldn't have become a culture-war flashpoint. The fact that your guest completely ignores the importance of leadership and setting a good example shows that he's actually not very good at this counterfactual thing.
A 45 day turnaround time production to air makes your content less salient. Unfortunately, in the 24-hour news cycle, your podcast becomes largely historical.