Yes, however in other important areas like food, the transformation towards precision fermentation seems wildly overly optimistic. Traditional agriculture and it‘s lobby are well intact, emitting all types of crap into the ground, water and the air. I would love to see the effects RethinkX describes, but I am not yet convinced it will work out that way…
@@bernios3446 doesn't really matter what we think about these different technologies ~ if the end result is a cheaper product and people are happy to use it / eat it / consume it then all the better I say.
Growing bulk stuff like wheat, rice or soy works best on big fields, no question. But it is also obvious that a greenhouse in or near a city is a better place for food like tomatoes or lettuce instead of shipping them across the world.
@@bernios3446 Their more or less thermal analysis of precision fermentation convinced me. Only about 4% of the calories consumed by a cow become human-edible products (meat, dairy). The rest becomes feces and methane. RethinkX claims that precision fermentation can be 10x more efficient at converting unprocessed vegetation calories into high quality meat-like protein and chemically identical analogues to whey and egg proteins. Since the primary cost for animal calories is animal feed, this is a tremendous cost advantage - enough for disruption. Sure, there will always be a market for fine steaks, for example, but for the fast food and junk food that make up most of our diets, cost advantages (and safety advantages!) weigh heavily against the emotional attachment to “real” food. Do you think McDonalds would care if that little ring of egg in an Egg McMuffin comes from a chicken or from a fermentation tank, if they’re chemically identical and taste the same? Do you think they’ll care if the synthetic egg stuff costs half as much? That’s why I’m convinced.
Here in my country we had a huge influx of cheap Chinese solar, the payback on the investment is only 3 years here, I'm starting to see a lot of roofs getting solar, it was 6months wait for my system, and we don't even have any insensitives, out government gives it to only small amount of people and only once a year
Also add in the Putin factor for solar. You should consider looking into the growth of hvac systems, especially in Europe due to the war. I read one article that said heat pumps reduced the amount of electricity required more than anything else after the war started.
Heat pumps replace natural gas rather not plain resistive heaters, so the demand for electricity is on the rise. Any reduction could be attributed to insane prices and mandated reduction quota imposed in winter.
I’ve worked in the solar and wind industry for the past 20-years and predicted, in RE articles, speeches to Congress in D.C., and in numerous trade shows speeches, that solar +BESS will dominate energy production before 2050 by producing 60% of our energy, with wind producing 30% and hydro, nuclear, geothermal, making up the remaining 10%. Solar is the cheapest form of power, the quickest to install and cheapest to maintain.
@@AORD72 Those studies seems to be worthless, sorry. In many regions of the world the high intermittency of non dispatchable solar and wind generation is creating more problems than dispatchable carbon free (nuclear) generation. Right now I'm paying 40 ct/kWh (eurocent) for electricity which is simply absurd - despite of 28,443 wind turbines in Germany and 67 GW of pv or 802W/Person (2023) - almost at the top of the world. "Sun and wind won't send you a bill". No. But the sun and wind don't generate electricity (systems do) and they are run in combination with thermal powerplants and that forever even if we can store electricity in batteries for 12h (absurd) for whole Germany - right now pumped hydro can do that job for 60 minutes! 1h!. Sometime we are facing a "Dunkelflaute" in winter with almost a week of no pv- and wind-generation requiring a complete backup with thermal power plants. Yes, solar is great in sunny places. It can provide the owner a decent supply with electricity. No, solar and wind are crap if the have to supply more than 50/60% of a highly industrialized country in Europe with long winter seasons, a complete collapse of wind generation for days. PV does not contribute anything to the spinning reserve (important for keeping the grid frequency stable) and is a burden for low voltage systems (230V/400V in Europe) hence the local network transformer can't really feed the power back into the medium voltage grid (20 kV). To make that run properly - charging your EV at the Autobahn with solar power from nearby villages is in a reasonable time frame more than wishful thinking. Germany has 1,1 million km of low voltage and 500,000 km of medium voltage grid with 600,000 local network transformers. "Sun and wind won't send you a bill". No, but all the companies involved in upgrading the grid. With more and more people running their homes on solar during March and Oktober, the grid companies have to charge more and more fees per kWh because people use less kWh per year. A vicious circle. I think Germany should go back to nuclear, use solar only on private homes and ditch wind energy almost completely except for the coastal areas. Sorry, but had enough of all these whishful green stories about the cheapness of technical useless solar and wind energy. Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Slovenia have signed a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse about the construction of AP-1000 nuclear power plants. France will build their EPR-2 units. Sweden will increase the share of nuclear energy in the electrical energy mix to 50% by 2050 which sounds all more balanced, more realistic and achievable than the so called free (but non dispatchable!!) renewable sources of sun and wind. There is a reason we have ditched those power sources and switched to fossile power.
Wind industry should not feel threatened, as it's capacity factor is limited by intermittency of wind, just the same as solar's intermittency is limited by availability of sunlight. These energy technologies can never dominate on their own and they should never expect that.
That’s old school thinking. But with the advent of Sodium ion batteries, which don’t use scarce materials, are cheap and eligible to large scale production, the intermittency issue can be resolved. Just a matter of time, education and investment.
Wind turbines are not concentrated in a single place. They are spread out which means that there is always wind. Those technologies already dominate many power grids. They don't have to do it 100% on their own. It's fine if you have diversified backup options. It's important to make the majority of it cheaper and cleaner, not to achieve 100% perfection.
Large scale storage is a key ingredient, however still relatively immature in its rollout, so in the meantime, optimising the renewable energy power mix is ideal. That means wind and solar and others.
I'm on board but don't underestimate the difficulty to implement big solar projects. The wrong Right is mobilizing against solar (and wind) and some of their delay strategies are deployed at the local level where local planning boards can and do block projects based on lies and propaganda.
Martinvoelker: why the Right? Over here it is mostly the green parties that are opposing new projects because of the local impact on wildlife, for example blocking permits for trees that need to be cut to clear fields for solar or birds /bats getting killed by new wind turbines thus blocking new large projects
Conservatives get their support from people whose attitudes tend to be stuck in the past: they own an oil company so they cannot think of investing in RE because that might mean selling a few less barrels of oil; their pa and grandpa worked and died in coal mines so it is more important to ensure there is still a market for coal than ensure that their kids and grandkids don't have to suffer from lungs full of soot; then there are the folks who just want to oppose progress... Also, the renewable project did not donate to their campaign, and the dems support it so conservatives must oppose it. Greens tend to be less monolithic. That means if you don't like the vegans or don't think their representative can get that wind farm built you can swich to another party who also supports the project. The side effect is that there will be more crazies left and fewer moderates keeping them from doing something dumb, like believing the fossil industry propaganda that a few birds flying into windmill blades means more dead birds than a billion birds poisoned by smoke from cars and coal plants.
Outstanding show, Sam!! This kind of information keeps us focused during these times of climate peril. Climate denial is still strong here in parts of the United States due to ignorance, greed, corrupt politicians and mainstream propaganda. Peace
The deployment of Wind and Solar has been heavily delayed in the UK (on shore wind is banned, Solar on farms essentially banned) and with little natural gas storage we are very exposed to variations to Gas costs. Ukraine has installed more wind power than England in the past year...
We need more EVs plugged into the national grid. Community battery in every suburb, which can be cheaper bulk technologies or recycled EV batteries. I see mobile phone base stations everywhere they could be the location for Community batteries.
They are affordable, non renewable electricity is just too cheap... Here in Europe during the winter prices of gray/black electricity peaked so much (and it is starting again) that the break even period for home batteries became realistic. The only problem now is getting them delivered and installed on time :-)
Perspective: Canada's Pickering Nuclear Power Generation Station produces about 2.6 GW. It's a large nuclear plant. So Sam is documenting 100x that per year in solar power generation. Better: power generation by solar is 1/3 the cost of nuclear; include grid-scale batteries to ensure solar can be treated as BASE LOAD, it's still not much more than 1/2 the cost of nuclear. Can be built within months - and the cost keeps dropping by a minimum of 12%/yr. Compounding. Nuclear is dead - drive a stake through its heart!
Fossil fuel burning must be the first to stop. Some countries will no longer be able to support populations in regions that have developed on fossil fuel availability.😊
"Mitigating climate change is not a spectator sport". Says it all. The question for everyone is not "is solar economic?" but "How do I get solar installed as soon as possible?"
I disagree, there is a carbon cost to producing these and real concern about the input supply over the long run, we can see this in an increase of cost of 200% from 2019. The real issue is how should we use solar for the best return of environmental impact, this would mean many placing should not use solar at all. ua-cam.com/video/tJvpn98XsHQ/v-deo.html&ab_channel=ZeihanonGeopolitics
My neighbor has 30+ solar panels in his backyard, where I live solar only works well for 4 months of the year and our local power supply is from hydroelectric which is clean energy. Does this make any sense when these solar panels could have a better environmental impact somewhere else where there is a better solar profile and local dirty energy source?
I would love to have a decently fixed Solar PV array here, but installation prices have increased in England, over the past couple of years, as far as I can tell. They're now almost out of my price range. And local installers are loathe to install much more than a theoretical 3 to 4 kW array, because of the big increase in paperwork, planning permission and other legal hindrances which are incurred when larger arrays are desired for domestic systems. In practice, a 3 to 4 kW array would only rarely generate much more than 1.5 to 2 kW. In Winter, it's not unusual for '3 kw' systems to generate only a few hundred Watts, even at noon, when the Sun might reach only 15° above the horizon.
Not sure if someone already mentioned but in South Africa we have already imported more than double the amount of solar in the first 6 months of 2023 than the whole of 2022. OK it is currency value but taking the decline of the currency into account it is still spectacular
Nice one, Sam. It is the sheer scale as well as the speed of the change that is so mind boggling. Have you tracked the money invested? Fully Charged mentioned $2.3tn invested in RE last year vs $1tn in fossil. I imagine that gap will only get wider and seems very unlikely to reverse. Exactly what the solution is to sea temps off Florida at 38°C this year, I'm not sure. But probably adds much needed urgency.
After the first minute, Sam said, "... because of Moore's Law." But it's not Moore's Law, it's known as Wright's Law. Increased efficiencies with increases in production cause the prices to come down. Thanks, Sam.
Here in Canada, we can’t get affordable solar panels from China because the duty fees are 286%. I believe that the oil industry are flexing their muscles here in Canada to stop or slow down the adoption of renewables.
40% drop? Solar prices in Norway nearly doubled the last three years. And prices are still on top. Way too expensive. Someone is getting rich on this madness.
Sanity beings at home! I’m a big fan of rooftop solar. For those who can’t individually afford their own initial outlay, there may be examples of community or local projects. But with anything new there is always a catch. In the interests of *balanced* information I’d like to here more about the DISABLERS. A few times you mentioned lack of skilled installation/maintenance staff and poor distribution grid Infrastructure and that dammed red tape thing. The rumour mill says some are having to earth their “unwanted” surplus electricity. Getting individuals involved is a big part of any movement. Loving all the big picture progress stuff but how’s if going for you and me who want to do our bit?
Current go ernment in india is so afraid of Chinese companies taking over Indian markets, that they have put taxes even on solar cells , while all there efforts of producing solar cells at home are failing. They have banned imported cars and now laptops as well. Curent government is too protectionist when it comes to Chinese companies, which is actually opposite to what previous governments have based our economic success on
Lots of those Indian politicians have their fortune tied to those local corporations. The introduction of cheaper energy, competition and better product range will not doubt benefit India more as a whole, just that corrupted politicians won't allow it.
Taking things into proportion: World total electricity production in 2022 was 28,527 TWh, from which solar was 1,289 TWh (less than 5%). Adding 500GW in a year will add at best case 1,440 TWh (500GW * 8h * 360 days, when solar panel produce power) production in a year. With this pace it would take approximately 10 years to reach 50% electricity production from Solar.
Got 20 Enphase panels on top of my house in SF. I no longer pay for electric. everyone should get solar if they can My installation is less than one year
Seba was right in general but in some subjects overly optimistic. In some of his predictions he claimed all (new) cars would be electric by now already.
@@jeffholman2364 I strongly disagree. He points quite well to exact dates. Also in all his last videos he pinpointed at how precisely he was right in timing where he was right. Not mentions so much where he was quite off. :-). Also his stuff is quite repetetive the last years with little to no new content. Would be nice to hear new things but he keeps it short. With a few lines towards AI and around that area. But for the general prediction he made years ago he seems to be the best one out there. Also with the application of the S developemnt curves versus the linear models used by the biggest organisations out there - which makes them being off so much.
Moore's Law is not a true law of Physics, but rather the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit roughly doubles every two years. This held true from the early 1960's until recently. Forgive me if I'm missing something, Sam, but how does this relate to the increasing number of Solar PV installations around the planet? Thanks for the video.
Moore's law can not be applied to the car industry or renewable energy, exponential growth would mean at least linear growth in added capacity in those systems which is not really seen globally. Simply the demand for materials making all these low dense energy converters like solar panels and wind turbines is limiting the output. Increased interest rates (no cheap money anymore) and risen material prices have slowed down wind energy in Europe. Many offshore projects are canceled, so there is no moore's law visible. We will go back to nuclear, the rest is simply absurd (like SWB) and impossible to achieve.
Ave Ozzie house hold consumption is 16kwhr per day, the US is 29kwhr per day. Lower prices in the US power encourage higher consumption - bad. 1/3 off all Ozzie homes have solar fitted already, and soon to be 1/2. I havent had a power bill ofr 11yrs, neither have most of my family. 25-33% roi. Fit solar.
@@m60mgman See: "Pricing of Electricity by Country » (Updated August 2023)" They pay .26/kwh on average. That's the 16th most expensive in the world. The U.S. averages .12/kwh *but* many people pay .15. Those with nearby hydro have really low power-- but if we get droughts.. hydro (and nuclear) has a problem.
@@m60mgman typically 37c AUD per kw hr = 24c USD. Probably why 1/3 of all Ozzie homes have rooftop solar pv now. And the rate of installation is accelerating. A typical 7-8kw solar panels plus 5kw inverter installation costs $3-$4k AUD now.
Don't forget solar is intermittent power.Tony is great at explaining his theories, and even I can understand them, so this solar installation speed is no suprise.But has Tony got it right about electricity prices?, they seem to be going up and up, not down as the Viking crows.
Not sure where you live, but in Australia coal still dominates the grid and expensive gas peakers set the price for electricity. Renewables, once they dominate, will bring the prices down. The ACT in particular in 100% Renewable powered and has the cheapest electricity in the country.
@@keepitreal2902 Keep the myth going. every time a coal power plant closes the prices go up(retail)..Name the last time electricity prices went down for consumers?. Interesting you mentioned peaker plants, why do we need these?, tell you why because solar and wind are intermittent sources of power...
Panels on a building no problem, in a grassy landscape got to say it is not a pleasant look. In 100 years perhaps human will have more options? if it saves us burning coal guess it is good regardless of the aesthetics.
@@JohnSmith-sz4gv Yes, it can. But the best place for solar panels is where power is needed. So being part of the solution is always a good idea. Those who are against solar, choose to remain part of the problem.
India has a problem with a monsoon season. Like no sun for several weeks at a time. China has the Gobi desert which is perfect for solar. I don't think solar is ever be as big in India as China.
The thing that is missing from this video is that we live in a society that uses 19 terawatta of energy so 0.35 terawatta is a long ways from our demand.
Extracting, processing, transporting & combustion of fossil fuel for energy is so inefficient that a 100% renewable energy system will require 56% less energy overall. That, plus exponential growth in renewable energy deployment means the system can change faster than most people believe possible.
The simple fact is that producing electricity by renewables is cheaper than by fossil fuels. The adoption of renewables is growing fast, despite the best efforts of politicians and the fossil fuel industry to disrupt it
Well it's simply not, because you omit the subsidies for renewables and CO2 tax for fossils, so it's massively skewed. The indicator for this is the fact that the more solar and wind in the mix, the more expensive energy is. Also destabilizing effect of the renewables on the grid requires large investments in the infrastructure which should be added to the bottom line.
@@guesswho6038 It is cheaper. It's simple math. You can take out all the subsidies and whatever you want. At the end of the day, it is cheaper. That's why it's done since many decades.
@@guesswho6038 In this country, there are massive tax breaks for the Oil/Gas industry, £10 billion per year, also subsidies for exploring for new Oil/Gas. These Tax breaks and Subsidies are massive compared to the tiny amount of subsidies that renewables receive in comparison.
@@guesswho6038 You also ignore the LCOE figures for the UK assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1177555/electricity-generation-costs-2023.pdf
My garage needs a new roof and whilst it’s not in direct sun, I’m still going to use solar just because it’s actually cheaper and I will benefit from it😊
Sam, confidence in a Moore's Law like factor driving solar development along is not the same thing as having the numbers bear that out. Around the world, countries have fallen behind their expectations of progress based on signed international agreements that aim to effect a decarbonised energy transition. That is the what the authorities charged with regulating these developments are saying and evidently you have decided to ignore and/or refute them based on a confident feeling about where things stand. Meanwhile, gifts and support to the fossil fuel industry remain very high. Globally, investment in solar and wind combined remain a small fraction of the investment in fossil fuels. That has to change or we are in serious trouble. Maybe you have missed it but the objection of fossil fuel companies to investing in wind and solar is precisely the low cost of energy in those sectors and the slim margins that go with the highly competitive nature of the renewables sector! Those companies aren't trying to bring us low cost energy they are trying to hold us over a barrel and keep things as they are with plenty of profits accruing to all of the usual suspects. Moore's Law as it may apply to energy generation meets a countervailing influence when a bunch of corporate snakes that dominate the scene ready themselves to bite any country or new entrant into the energy arena that would make life difficult for them. Sam, stop presenting rosy pictures unsupported by hard data and start criticising the obstacles impeding the fulfilment of the vision you are offering. Without the hard work of crashing through those obstacles the vision will remain just that.
It is good to be optimistic but it is also important to be realistic. China alone will need between 4,000 and 8,000 GW of on line generation to power its economy (residential and business, transport, and industry) in a post green house gas world (estimates vary according to assumptions about future population, nature of industry etc). Progress on renewables needs to be measured against such objectives. In this context 200 GW a year in China while in the ball park, is not that great a rate of progress.
You should investigate the development of energy storage since this hampers the growths towards 100% of green energy. It also could prevent the building of nuclear power plants.
Sam you might be crazy but everyone need crazy in their lives. I’m just hoping the beer situation in rural Australia has improved compared to 2006 when the local pub in Cobar only had there bland beers on hand.
The elephant in this particular room is that 93% of the heat from fossil fuel burning is stored in the oceans-keep this in mind.The dissipation of this heat will take hundreds of years.This IS alarming!!!
You are right to be worried. That's why we have to go beyond nett zero CO2 and eventually draw down the CO2 in the atmosphere. But lets do one step at a time; that's difficult enough when you look at the dinosaurs in the USA Republican party, and the dodos in the Australian conservative parties, who are reluctant to even admit that CO2 causes global warming. We may have to wait for a second extinction event for both those groups.☀☀
Doubt it.. Thermal dissipation from water does not take that long. How do you get hundreds off years?????? Boil a jug and within a few hours the heat has dissipated. Surf in the ocean in summer then in winter and you can feel the difference in sea temperature. What is the thermal conductivity of sea water?
@@AORD72 It's not that simple. The oceans can store 100x as much heat as the air, due to higher specific heat; but the temp of the oceans (and the temp of the air) varies with depth; surface temp of the oceans depends on solar radiation as well as air temp; it also depends on ice cover, so reduced ice cover means additional heating of the seas; This changed heat input may lead to changes in ocean currents which in turn affect the climate of nearby land masses. The things we can be sure of: there will be change; the change will be more rapid than evolution can cope with; and recovery from the change will take much longer than it took for the change to occur.
@@davidinkster1296 I strongly disagree, it is that simple. Water is highly thermally conductive, so what if water can store a lot of energy, it is the thermal dissipation that matters. The 2rd law of thermodynamics states: "that heat always moves from hotter objects to colder objects", the heat is lost to the atmosphere and into space. The thermal conductivity of water and air allows a fast dissipation of heat. Why do you think hot water cylinders are wrapped in insulation, because they lose heat at a very fast rate. Do some thermal dissipation of sea water equations to prove me wrong if you can. "there will be change; the change will be more rapid than evolution can cope with", that is nonsense. What was the fastest climate change in human history? Probably 14500 years ago when the sea level was rising at a rate of 40 mm a year (we are only at 3mm per year). Even the EXPERTS that study ice loss say it is going to take thousands of years for all the ice to melt. You people jump on the media's sensationalized statements and skip the words in their statements like "might","could","perhaps".
The limiting factor on the rates of solar installation is no longer the cost of the panel's it is now the availability of properly functioning hi longevity battery systems and the associated which is to say factually the limiting factor globally now is Tesla and their production of mega pack systems and software control
The main reason solar panels are less expensive, is the demand has dropped. Large scale solar projects all over the place are ON HOLD. As with wind, the ROI isn't there, and no one wants to be the next Solyndra. By the way...what was Seba's explanation for that? While you're crowing about China solar, please explain why your coal exports to China haven't gone down, but have INCREASED. Also, please explain why the dozens or hundreds of planned COAL plants in China are being built, if they're using more solar and less coal. Tony Seba was shilling for companies he invested in; he even said so at the beginning of his talks. It worked for some of his investments, NOT ALL.
According to our friends at Google the world consumes aporox 25,000 terawatts per year. That's 25 million gigawatts, so adding 500 gigawatts of solar is great but barely a drop in the bucket?
That’s the panel potential, so a 500w panel could produce 500w of electricity in perfect conditions in one hour. In the UK that panel would likely produce 500kW of electricity over a year. Different output in other countries obviously
2030: 90% renewables Worldwide? Not gonna happen. Infrastructure can't be developed to it. Not to mention storage! Oil is gonna be here for a very long time. And I am all in for renewables. Would love to happen. But it simply won't. Unfortunately. Huge hurdles ahead!
As of January of this year, 2023, 6 percent of US energy was produced by solar. At a 50 percent CAGR, 30.5 percent in 4 years, 102% in 2030. Have you sat down and done the math? You would be surprised how fast exponential S curve works. Google technology disruption curve and automotive valley of death, not death valley autos and see some of these curves playing out now.
@@GG-si7fw Would love to see you have right in the future. Am all in for EVs and renewables but unfortunately you can't CAGR 50% the workers who would do the installations. That's the reality.
The problem is to compare a smartphone or a car adoption S curve to a global problem like energy. As we use more energy the previous energy(mix) stays in the system simply because our energy need grows so much we can't phase out the previous sources from the mix(coal to some extent but oil,gas no.Not yet.). Plus new technologies increases the energy consumption even with significant improvements in energy efficiencies occur. Think like transistors, fridges, AC systems. These getting more energy efficient but more and more people getting them. Hense = more energy needed.
THERE are many problems with solar. The biggest problem is Night, next comes the toxic substances, then cloud cover, then lack of raw materials, then poor recycling, huge footprint, low power density, huge amounts of CO2 released to manufacture panels, have to replaced them every 20 years, must have a backup power source to handle that nasty nighttime problem etc, etc. It doesn’t matter how cheap it gets or if it is free, if it is wrong in every sense, then it will fail. There are small scale applications for solar in remote areas and that’s about it. At large scale it does not come close to Nuclear energy.
Levelized cost of generation studies done by experts say solar farms are highly cost effective and cheaper than nuclear. If you install solar panels on your roof you can clearly see they area cost effective. Many studies show this.
Tony says almost nobody will own cars. We have taxis and public buses but most people love owning, not using far cheaper public transport. He’s not correct always.
Do whatever you can to put solar on your roof. Sell your granny if you have to, but get panels and a battery installed. The poorer you are the more important it is to get panels installed. Do they work all the time? Nope. Are they perfect? Nope. Do they make a difference to your energy costs? Absolutely. I’ve had a small pylontech battery and seven panels since March and so far this year I have saved almost £400 on my electricity bill! Live in a flat? Get a balcony kit. Rent? Get a diy ground mounted kit. GET SOLAR!
BS, where is your data? Every year EV sales increases. Look at Tesla's annual growth rate. Its growth rate is over 40% and that has been the case for 10+ years.
Solar heats the area, as it is dark instead of lighter vegetation reflecting back to space. We simply need populations to have smaller families and get down to 1 billion or less folks. We are unsustainable without major manmade global disasters right now. Polluting the planet massively.
Never listen to other people no matter who they are blindly, use your mind, do your research, then use your instinct and intuition and see the truth yourself... this is the truth that sets us free. Time to wtfu sheople.
Adding RE, while overall energy demand increases, makes things difficult. New, cheap, RE may even cause more demand. More demand should do useful things, but its confusing.
Not always the case. We added 9.9 kW system to our all electric house two years after building it in 2016, and it has been a game to reduce electric usage (so that we pay little or nothing net to our utility) while improving QoL. Now we use heat pump summer/winter (and much less 240 V electric wall resistance heating units) updated to induction cooktop, mostly use smaller air fryers instead of large oven, and similar small things. Our annual Kwh use is 9400 down from 13,500 with greater comfort than ever. Even replaced one car with an EV which gets charged from some of the daytime excess PV panel production (rather than sell it all back to the utility) It is fun to learn little tweaks that add up to substantial savings.
Solar panels and their AC power created by inverters does not add stability to the grid since there is no spinning reserve involved. A proper power plant with a turbo generator (synchronous machine) can deliver grid stability due to simple electromechanical properties which solar can't. I highly doubt more than 50% of wind and solar is feasible in terms of grid stability, backup and storage costs and grid expansion. Just look at the madness in Denmark, California and Germany. High consumer prices and still no where near the French carbon free grid with their nuclear fleet. Any wind turbine installed in 2020 will be demolished earlier than any French NPP will be decommissioned due to age reasons.
@@newyorker641 Listen to Simon Michaux, we are both wrong, his latest. 8 days ago. 'The Green Transition will not .......' Raw materials is our biggest problem. We have had a burst of cheap energy from fossil fuels, our population has expanded and the climate is changing. Clean renewable energy is a bigger problem for the world than we understood. Even nuclear energy is limited by the grid expansion costs. Free electricity is limited by the cost of expanding the grid.
@@stephenbrickwood1602 Grid expansion is minimal with nuclear, France will not do it with less than 50% nuclear since it would be too expensive at system level. All these strategies towards a carbon free future have to be analyzed separately. In middle Europe there can be weeks without notably sunshine and wind, like Germany in December 2022. So a SWB system would never be feasible there. Always listen to people that have build power plants, operated them, run power grids and listen to more than one. Making your own decisions is very hard. It depends on your qualification (I've studied mechanical engineering), your skills (I've build 4 pv systems, one with storage) and your interests - mine are very wide, including NPP. Then and only then you are able to form a conclusion, a compromise, which is very close to reality. There is never "that one specialist", it is always a complex arrangement of perspectives. As I said I find the French strategy the best all around compromise of many factors. Most future predictions are simply wrong, Philipp Tetlock has analyzed 82,000 of them between 1987 and 2003 and most (more than 85%) were wrong because predictions are impossible, especially in a multifactoral environment. Has Tony Seba considered this? Will his "energy transition" be part of the 85%? Why is electricity so expensive in those areas with lots of renewables? Why is electricity cheaper in Finland (40% nuclear) than in Germany (50% renewables)?
@@Tschacki_Quacki There is no warranty. The installers close up shop every 5 years or so and open a new company so they never have to deal with their shoddy work.
It’s wonderful that solar is growing, but it’s not keeping up with the need for energy. China is also building more coal power plants than anyone else.
Solar will slow down when it has to be supplemented with batteries to provide base load power. In California NEM3 will definitely slow down the states rapid growth in solar.
I think this is not the complete picture: remember that oil companies have only mere percents of investments in renewables in their portfolio. For the carbon emissions to come down you need a deep decarbonization and we're late in decarbonizing in fringes like heavy transport, airlines, agriculture and there are tragic amounts of emission from gas leaks, deforestation, forest fires, HFCs ongoing. I'm sorry my friend, but capitalism will not solve climate change. The system will need to change...
Tony Seba and RethinkX do amazing work. It’s not just energy… they’re talking about disrupting EVERYTHING.
Everything electric ~ fuel agnostic ~ bring it on.
Yes, however in other important areas like food, the transformation towards precision fermentation seems wildly overly optimistic. Traditional agriculture and it‘s lobby are well intact, emitting all types of crap into the ground, water and the air. I would love to see the effects RethinkX describes, but I am not yet convinced it will work out that way…
@@bernios3446 doesn't really matter what we think about these different technologies ~ if the end result is a cheaper product and people are happy to use it / eat it / consume it then all the better I say.
Growing bulk stuff like wheat, rice or soy works best on big fields, no question. But it is also obvious that a greenhouse in or near a city is a better place for food like tomatoes or lettuce instead of shipping them across the world.
@@bernios3446 Their more or less thermal analysis of precision fermentation convinced me. Only about 4% of the calories consumed by a cow become human-edible products (meat, dairy). The rest becomes feces and methane. RethinkX claims that precision fermentation can be 10x more efficient at converting unprocessed vegetation calories into high quality meat-like protein and chemically identical analogues to whey and egg proteins. Since the primary cost for animal calories is animal feed, this is a tremendous cost advantage - enough for disruption. Sure, there will always be a market for fine steaks, for example, but for the fast food and junk food that make up most of our diets, cost advantages (and safety advantages!) weigh heavily against the emotional attachment to “real” food. Do you think McDonalds would care if that little ring of egg in an Egg McMuffin comes from a chicken or from a fermentation tank, if they’re chemically identical and taste the same? Do you think they’ll care if the synthetic egg stuff costs half as much? That’s why I’m convinced.
Being a crazy optimist does not mean you are wrong 😜
I haven't seen lower estimates for a solar installation on my home. The technological advances aren't filtering down. Prices aren't getting lower.
Here in my country we had a huge influx of cheap Chinese solar, the payback on the investment is only 3 years here, I'm starting to see a lot of roofs getting solar, it was 6months wait for my system, and we don't even have any insensitives, out government gives it to only small amount of people and only once a year
Swanson's Law predicts the decline in costs of PV, not Moore's Law.
Moore and Swanson's Law are derivatives of Wright's Law.
I thought Swansons' Law predicts the decline in price of TV dinners.
@@wietzepostStill: no laws there.
Also add in the Putin factor for solar. You should consider looking into the growth of hvac systems, especially in Europe due to the war. I read one article that said heat pumps reduced the amount of electricity required more than anything else after the war started.
Heat pumps replace natural gas rather not plain resistive heaters, so the demand for electricity is on the rise. Any reduction could be attributed to insane prices and mandated reduction quota imposed in winter.
I’ve worked in the solar and wind industry for the past 20-years and predicted, in RE articles, speeches to Congress in D.C., and in numerous trade shows speeches, that solar +BESS will dominate energy production before 2050 by producing 60% of our energy, with wind producing 30% and hydro, nuclear, geothermal, making up the remaining 10%. Solar is the cheapest form of power, the quickest to install and cheapest to maintain.
Cost effective for the end user.
@@AORD72 But not the overall cost for the whole electrical energy system, look at Germany, Denmark or California.
@@MultiThibor Actually it is, if you look at the expert studies for the levelized cost of electricity generation.
@@AORD72 Those studies seems to be worthless, sorry.
In many regions of the world the high intermittency of non dispatchable solar and wind generation is creating more problems than dispatchable carbon free (nuclear) generation.
Right now I'm paying 40 ct/kWh (eurocent) for electricity which is simply absurd - despite of 28,443 wind turbines in Germany and 67 GW of pv or 802W/Person (2023) - almost at the top of the world.
"Sun and wind won't send you a bill". No. But the sun and wind don't generate electricity (systems do) and they are run in combination with thermal powerplants and that forever even if we can store electricity in batteries for 12h (absurd) for whole Germany - right now pumped hydro can do that job for 60 minutes! 1h!.
Sometime we are facing a "Dunkelflaute" in winter with almost a week of no pv- and wind-generation requiring a complete backup with thermal power plants.
Yes, solar is great in sunny places.
It can provide the owner a decent supply with electricity.
No, solar and wind are crap if the have to supply more than 50/60% of a highly industrialized country in Europe with long winter seasons, a complete collapse of wind generation for days.
PV does not contribute anything to the spinning reserve (important for keeping the grid frequency stable) and is a burden for low voltage systems (230V/400V in Europe) hence the local network transformer can't really feed the power back into the medium voltage grid (20 kV).
To make that run properly - charging your EV at the Autobahn with solar power from nearby villages is in a reasonable time frame more than wishful thinking.
Germany has 1,1 million km of low voltage and 500,000 km of medium voltage grid with 600,000 local network transformers.
"Sun and wind won't send you a bill".
No, but all the companies involved in upgrading the grid.
With more and more people running their homes on solar during March and Oktober, the grid companies have to charge more and more fees per kWh because people use less kWh per year.
A vicious circle.
I think Germany should go back to nuclear, use solar only on private homes and ditch wind energy almost completely except for the coastal areas.
Sorry, but had enough of all these whishful green stories about the cheapness of technical useless solar and wind energy.
Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Slovenia have signed a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse about the construction of AP-1000 nuclear power plants.
France will build their EPR-2 units.
Sweden will increase the share of nuclear energy in the electrical energy mix to 50% by 2050 which sounds all more balanced, more realistic and achievable than the so called free (but non dispatchable!!) renewable sources of sun and wind.
There is a reason we have ditched those power sources and switched to fossile power.
Wind industry should not feel threatened, as it's capacity factor is limited by intermittency of wind, just the same as solar's intermittency is limited by availability of sunlight. These energy technologies can never dominate on their own and they should never expect that.
That’s old school thinking. But with the advent of Sodium ion batteries, which don’t use scarce materials, are cheap and eligible to large scale production, the intermittency issue can be resolved. Just a matter of time, education and investment.
Wind turbines are not concentrated in a single place. They are spread out which means that there is always wind.
Those technologies already dominate many power grids. They don't have to do it 100% on their own. It's fine if you have diversified backup options. It's important to make the majority of it cheaper and cleaner, not to achieve 100% perfection.
Large scale storage is a key ingredient, however still relatively immature in its rollout, so in the meantime, optimising the renewable energy power mix is ideal. That means wind and solar and others.
I'm on board but don't underestimate the difficulty to implement big solar projects. The wrong Right is mobilizing against solar (and wind) and some of their delay strategies are deployed at the local level where local planning boards can and do block projects based on lies and propaganda.
This is why residential solar is such a great supplement, it also adds stability to the grid due to its distributed nature
That’s standard government bureaucracy.
Martinvoelker: why the Right? Over here it is mostly the green parties that are opposing new projects because of the local impact on wildlife, for example blocking permits for trees that need to be cut to clear fields for solar or birds /bats getting killed by new wind turbines thus blocking new large projects
@@ttkddry Our Lord and Saviour D. Trump will bring back CLEAN COAL in 2025 !
Conservatives get their support from people whose attitudes tend to be stuck in the past: they own an oil company so they cannot think of investing in RE because that might mean selling a few less barrels of oil; their pa and grandpa worked and died in coal mines so it is more important to ensure there is still a market for coal than ensure that their kids and grandkids don't have to suffer from lungs full of soot; then there are the folks who just want to oppose progress...
Also, the renewable project did not donate to their campaign, and the dems support it so conservatives must oppose it.
Greens tend to be less monolithic. That means if you don't like the vegans or don't think their representative can get that wind farm built you can swich to another party who also supports the project. The side effect is that there will be more crazies left and fewer moderates keeping them from doing something dumb, like believing the fossil industry propaganda that a few birds flying into windmill blades means more dead birds than a billion birds poisoned by smoke from cars and coal plants.
Outstanding show, Sam!! This kind of information keeps us focused during these times of climate peril. Climate denial is still strong here in parts of the United States due to ignorance, greed, corrupt politicians and mainstream propaganda. Peace
The deployment of Wind and Solar has been heavily delayed in the UK (on shore wind is banned, Solar on farms essentially banned) and with little natural gas storage we are very exposed to variations to Gas costs. Ukraine has installed more wind power than England in the past year...
Left behind.
The deployment has been delayed? 🤔
@@malcolmrickarby2313 edited, typo fixed
@@Sixotoo typo fixed
We need more EVs plugged into the national grid.
Community battery in every suburb, which can be cheaper bulk technologies or recycled EV batteries.
I see mobile phone base stations everywhere they could be the location for Community batteries.
Excellent news! Now if we could just make home storage batteries affordable, homeowners in sunny climes would go off grid!
They are affordable, non renewable electricity is just too cheap... Here in Europe during the winter prices of gray/black electricity peaked so much (and it is starting again) that the break even period for home batteries became realistic. The only problem now is getting them delivered and installed on time :-)
Thanks to China.
Perspective: Canada's Pickering Nuclear Power Generation Station produces about 2.6 GW. It's a large nuclear plant. So Sam is documenting 100x that per year in solar power generation.
Better: power generation by solar is 1/3 the cost of nuclear; include grid-scale batteries to ensure solar can be treated as BASE LOAD, it's still not much more than 1/2 the cost of nuclear. Can be built within months - and the cost keeps dropping by a minimum of 12%/yr. Compounding.
Nuclear is dead - drive a stake through its heart!
Fossil fuel burning must be the first to stop. Some countries will no longer be able to support populations in regions that have developed on fossil fuel availability.😊
"Mitigating climate change is not a spectator sport". Says it all. The question for everyone is not "is solar economic?" but "How do I get solar installed as soon as possible?"
Our Lord and Saviour D. Trump will bring back CLEAN COAL in 2025 !
I disagree, there is a carbon cost to producing these and real concern about the input supply over the long run, we can see this in an increase of cost of 200% from 2019. The real issue is how should we use solar for the best return of environmental impact, this would mean many placing should not use solar at all. ua-cam.com/video/tJvpn98XsHQ/v-deo.html&ab_channel=ZeihanonGeopolitics
My neighbor has 30+ solar panels in his backyard, where I live solar only works well for 4 months of the year and our local power supply is from hydroelectric which is clean energy. Does this make any sense when these solar panels could have a better environmental impact somewhere else where there is a better solar profile and local dirty energy source?
I would love to have a decently fixed Solar PV array here, but installation prices have increased in England, over the past couple of years, as far as I can tell. They're now almost out of my price range. And local installers are loathe to install much more than a theoretical 3 to 4 kW array, because of the big increase in paperwork, planning permission and other legal hindrances which are incurred when larger arrays are desired for domestic systems. In practice, a 3 to 4 kW array would only rarely generate much more than 1.5 to 2 kW. In Winter, it's not unusual for '3 kw' systems to generate only a few hundred Watts, even at noon, when the Sun might reach only 15° above the horizon.
Here's biomass at work ua-cam.com/video/5lAlqhyaMQQ/v-deo.html
Not sure if someone already mentioned but in South Africa we have already imported more than double the amount of solar in the first 6 months of 2023 than the whole of 2022. OK it is currency value but taking the decline of the currency into account it is still spectacular
Nice one, Sam. It is the sheer scale as well as the speed of the change that is so mind boggling.
Have you tracked the money invested? Fully Charged mentioned $2.3tn invested in RE last year vs $1tn in fossil. I imagine that gap will only get wider and seems very unlikely to reverse. Exactly what the solution is to sea temps off Florida at 38°C this year, I'm not sure. But probably adds much needed urgency.
First it was a manipulation that sea was at 38C off Florida, then how would solar help cooling it anyway?
Our Lord and Saviour D. Trump will bring back CLEAN COAL in 2025 !
@@guesswho6038solar helps by lessening the emissions we emit from fossil fuels that cause climate change. Although I take it you don’t believe in that
@@SyntheticSpyI'm afraid the overall effect of installing solar on climate is on the noise level.
This is great news! Will need to focus on panel recycling more soon as older panels are removed and upgraded
That is a problem that is already solved. We can reclaim all of it.
After the first minute, Sam said, "... because of Moore's Law." But it's not Moore's Law, it's known as Wright's Law. Increased efficiencies with increases in production cause the prices to come down.
Thanks, Sam.
You get good sun down unda.
Purple sun! Definitely something wrong with the atmosphere 😂
Here in Canada, we can’t get affordable solar panels from China because the duty fees are 286%. I believe that the oil industry are flexing their muscles here in Canada to stop or slow down the adoption of renewables.
40% drop? Solar prices in Norway nearly doubled the last three years. And prices are still on top. Way too expensive. Someone is getting rich on this madness.
Sanity beings at home! I’m a big fan of rooftop solar. For those who can’t individually afford their own initial outlay, there may be examples of community or local projects. But with anything new there is always a catch. In the interests of *balanced* information I’d like to here more about the DISABLERS. A few times you mentioned lack of skilled installation/maintenance staff and poor distribution grid Infrastructure and that dammed red tape thing. The rumour mill says some are having to earth their “unwanted” surplus electricity. Getting individuals involved is a big part of any movement. Loving all the big picture progress stuff but how’s if going for you and me who want to do our bit?
Current go ernment in india is so afraid of Chinese companies taking over Indian markets, that they have put taxes even on solar cells , while all there efforts of producing solar cells at home are failing.
They have banned imported cars and now laptops as well.
Curent government is too protectionist when it comes to Chinese companies, which is actually opposite to what previous governments have based our economic success on
Lots of those Indian politicians have their fortune tied to those local corporations. The introduction of cheaper energy, competition and better product range will not doubt benefit India more as a whole, just that corrupted politicians won't allow it.
Taking things into proportion:
World total electricity production in 2022 was 28,527 TWh, from which solar was 1,289 TWh (less than 5%).
Adding 500GW in a year will add at best case 1,440 TWh (500GW * 8h * 360 days, when solar panel produce power) production in a year.
With this pace it would take approximately 10 years to reach 50% electricity production from Solar.
Brilliant news yet again Sam all the best 👍🏻
Got 20 Enphase panels on top of my house in SF. I no longer pay for electric. everyone should get solar if they can My installation is less than one year
Electek reported 51 solar factories / expansions in the USA are planned!
Great content Viking, respect!! 👊
Seba was right in general but in some subjects overly optimistic. In some of his predictions he claimed all (new) cars would be electric by now already.
ICE cars will be around for decades to come.
He generally gives a range vs an exact calendar date - check back in 18 months!
@@jeffholman2364 Not much will change in 18 months, yes, EV sales will increase but not at an highly exponential rate.
@@jeffholman2364 I strongly disagree. He points quite well to exact dates. Also in all his last videos he pinpointed at how precisely he was right in timing where he was right. Not mentions so much where he was quite off. :-). Also his stuff is quite repetetive the last years with little to no new content. Would be nice to hear new things but he keeps it short. With a few lines towards AI and around that area. But for the general prediction he made years ago he seems to be the best one out there. Also with the application of the S developemnt curves versus the linear models used by the biggest organisations out there - which makes them being off so much.
Moore's Law is not a true law of Physics, but rather the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit roughly doubles every two years. This held true from the early 1960's until recently. Forgive me if I'm missing something, Sam, but how does this relate to the increasing number of Solar PV installations around the planet? Thanks for the video.
Moore's law can not be applied to the car industry or renewable energy, exponential growth would mean at least linear growth in added capacity in those systems which is not really seen globally.
Simply the demand for materials making all these low dense energy converters like solar panels and wind turbines is limiting the output.
Increased interest rates (no cheap money anymore) and risen material prices have slowed down wind energy in Europe. Many offshore projects are canceled, so there is no moore's law visible.
We will go back to nuclear, the rest is simply absurd (like SWB) and impossible to achieve.
When do these cost savings trickle down to our power bills and the house installations?
Ave Ozzie house hold consumption is 16kwhr per day, the US is 29kwhr per day. Lower prices in the US power encourage higher consumption - bad.
1/3 off all Ozzie homes have solar fitted already, and soon to be 1/2.
I havent had a power bill ofr 11yrs, neither have most of my family. 25-33% roi. Fit solar.
@@nordic5490 How much per kWh in Australia? I pay about 11 cents per kWh here in North Carolina. Relatives living in California pay about 3X that.
@@m60mgman See:
"Pricing of Electricity by Country » (Updated August 2023)"
They pay .26/kwh on average. That's the 16th most expensive in the world.
The U.S. averages .12/kwh *but* many people pay .15. Those with nearby hydro have really low power-- but if we get droughts.. hydro (and nuclear) has a problem.
@@m60mgman typically 37c AUD per kw hr = 24c USD. Probably why 1/3 of all Ozzie homes have rooftop solar pv now. And the rate of installation is accelerating. A typical 7-8kw solar panels plus 5kw inverter installation costs $3-$4k AUD now.
Short answer, never. Governments will come up with a way to make us pay more, and say it is in our and the planet’s best interest
Cheaper energy. Cheaper transport. Super abundance. Nonstop.
It’s not being an optimist that makes us believe this, it’s the fact that this is definitely happening fills us with optimism
Nice news
Don't forget solar is intermittent power.Tony is great at explaining his theories, and even I can understand them, so this solar installation speed is no suprise.But has Tony got it right about electricity prices?, they seem to be going up and up, not down as the Viking crows.
Not sure where you live, but in Australia coal still dominates the grid and expensive gas peakers set the price for electricity. Renewables, once they dominate, will bring the prices down. The ACT in particular in 100% Renewable powered and has the cheapest electricity in the country.
@@keepitreal2902 Keep the myth going. every time a coal power plant closes the prices go up(retail)..Name the last time electricity prices went down for consumers?. Interesting you mentioned peaker plants, why do we need these?, tell you why because solar and wind are intermittent sources of power...
@@Mixos_place It might help if you actually read my comment, if you can read.
@@Mixos_place It might help if you actually read my comment.
Panels on a building no problem, in a grassy landscape got to say it is not a pleasant look.
In 100 years perhaps human will have more options? if it saves us burning coal guess it is good regardless of the aesthetics.
Sam, the Stark Varg has now started delivering first bikes to customers. Tony was right yet again
@theelectricviking what is your view on the HVDC systems being implemented in Australia?
Thanks for the good news 😊
Have you seen John Cadogan’s on lithium ion waste in Australia?
We need farmland for food not solar panels
Put as many as you can on your roof to help prevent big solar fields. They can only exist if they make a profit on your usage.
Agrovoltaics can make mediocre land into good growing land .
@@JohnSmith-sz4gv Yes, it can. But the best place for solar panels is where power is needed.
So being part of the solution is always a good idea. Those who are against solar, choose to remain part of the problem.
Solar uses hardly any land. Plenty of animal farm land that will work fine with solar. Plenty of room on houses and buildings for solar.
And yet in South Africa we still don’t have electricity through the day 😢. Can’t believe what a bad government monopoly can do to ruin a country
India has a problem with a monsoon season. Like no sun for several weeks at a time. China has the Gobi desert which is perfect for solar. I don't think solar is ever be as big in India as China.
Harmonic bladeless wind power is equally sexy and you can mix them with solar on the same land.
The thing that is missing from this video is that we live in a society that uses 19 terawatta of energy so 0.35 terawatta is a long ways from our demand.
Extracting, processing, transporting & combustion of fossil fuel for energy is so inefficient that a 100% renewable energy system will require 56% less energy overall. That, plus exponential growth in renewable energy deployment means the system can change
faster than most people believe possible.
@@annabel5200thanks for making that important point.😊
Love this great news
The simple fact is that producing electricity by renewables is cheaper than by fossil fuels.
The adoption of renewables is growing fast, despite the best efforts of politicians and the fossil fuel industry to disrupt it
Our Lord and Saviour D. Trump will bring back CLEAN COAL !
Well it's simply not, because you omit the subsidies for renewables and CO2 tax for fossils, so it's massively skewed. The indicator for this is the fact that the more solar and wind in the mix, the more expensive energy is. Also destabilizing effect of the renewables on the grid requires large investments in the infrastructure which should be added to the bottom line.
@@guesswho6038 It is cheaper. It's simple math. You can take out all the subsidies and whatever you want. At the end of the day, it is cheaper. That's why it's done since many decades.
@@guesswho6038 In this country, there are massive tax breaks for the Oil/Gas industry, £10 billion per year, also subsidies for exploring for new Oil/Gas.
These Tax breaks and Subsidies are massive compared to the tiny amount of subsidies that renewables receive in comparison.
@@guesswho6038 You also ignore the LCOE figures for the UK assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1177555/electricity-generation-costs-2023.pdf
50% every year means doubling every 2 years YES YES YES!!!
Sam's pace of great content production is unmatched.
My garage needs a new roof and whilst it’s not in direct sun, I’m still going to use solar just because it’s actually cheaper and I will benefit from it😊
Sam, confidence in a Moore's Law like factor driving solar development along is not the same thing as having the numbers bear that out. Around the world, countries have fallen behind their expectations of progress based on signed international agreements that aim to effect a decarbonised energy transition. That is the what the authorities charged with regulating these developments are saying and evidently you have decided to ignore and/or refute them based on a confident feeling about where things stand. Meanwhile, gifts and support to the fossil fuel industry remain very high. Globally, investment in solar and wind combined remain a small fraction of the investment in fossil fuels. That has to change or we are in serious trouble.
Maybe you have missed it but the objection of fossil fuel companies to investing in wind and solar is precisely the low cost of energy in those sectors and the slim margins that go with the highly competitive nature of the renewables sector! Those companies aren't trying to bring us low cost energy they are trying to hold us over a barrel and keep things as they are with plenty of profits accruing to all of the usual suspects.
Moore's Law as it may apply to energy generation meets a countervailing influence when a bunch of corporate snakes that dominate the scene ready themselves to bite any country or new entrant into the energy arena that would make life difficult for them.
Sam, stop presenting rosy pictures unsupported by hard data and start criticising the obstacles impeding the fulfilment of the vision you are offering. Without the hard work of crashing through those obstacles the vision will remain just that.
All these numbers, percentages, GW’s, etc being thrown around in the wind. The truth is, nobody knows…
Yes but you conveniently ignore energy storage. As far as I can see there is no economically viable solution at the scale needed
It is good to be optimistic but it is also important to be realistic. China alone will need between 4,000 and 8,000 GW of on line generation to power its economy (residential and business, transport, and industry) in a post green house gas world (estimates vary according to assumptions about future population, nature of industry etc).
Progress on renewables needs to be measured against such objectives. In this context 200 GW a year in China while in the ball park, is not that great a rate of progress.
You should investigate the development of energy storage since this hampers the growths towards 100% of green energy. It also could prevent the building of nuclear power plants.
....more experience year by year and automation will continue to bring down costs even more.
Sam you might be crazy but everyone need crazy in their lives. I’m just hoping the beer situation in rural Australia has improved compared to 2006 when the local pub in Cobar only had there bland beers on hand.
The elephant in this particular room is that 93% of the heat from fossil fuel burning is stored in the oceans-keep this in mind.The dissipation of this heat will take hundreds of years.This IS alarming!!!
You are right to be worried. That's why we have to go beyond nett zero CO2 and eventually draw down the CO2 in the atmosphere. But lets do one step at a time; that's difficult enough when you look at the dinosaurs in the USA Republican party, and the dodos in the Australian conservative parties, who are reluctant to even admit that CO2 causes global warming. We may have to wait for a second extinction event for both those groups.☀☀
Doubt it.. Thermal dissipation from water does not take that long. How do you get hundreds off years?????? Boil a jug and within a few hours the heat has dissipated. Surf in the ocean in summer then in winter and you can feel the difference in sea temperature. What is the thermal conductivity of sea water?
@@AORD72 It's not that simple. The oceans can store 100x as much heat as the air, due to higher specific heat; but the temp of the oceans (and the temp of the air) varies with depth; surface temp of the oceans depends on solar radiation as well as air temp; it also depends on ice cover, so reduced ice cover means additional heating of the seas; This changed heat input may lead to changes in ocean currents which in turn affect the climate of nearby land masses.
The things we can be sure of: there will be change; the change will be more rapid than evolution can cope with; and recovery from the change will take much longer than it took for the change to occur.
@@davidinkster1296 I strongly disagree, it is that simple. Water is highly thermally conductive, so what if water can store a lot of energy, it is the thermal dissipation that matters. The 2rd law of thermodynamics states: "that heat always moves from hotter objects to colder objects", the heat is lost to the atmosphere and into space. The thermal conductivity of water and air allows a fast dissipation of heat. Why do you think hot water cylinders are wrapped in insulation, because they lose heat at a very fast rate. Do some thermal dissipation of sea water equations to prove me wrong if you can.
"there will be change; the change will be more rapid than evolution can cope with", that is nonsense. What was the fastest climate change in human history? Probably 14500 years ago when the sea level was rising at a rate of 40 mm a year (we are only at 3mm per year). Even the EXPERTS that study ice loss say it is going to take thousands of years for all the ice to melt. You people jump on the media's sensationalized statements and skip the words in their statements like "might","could","perhaps".
Is McKenzie the company that was off by 1000X on the adoption of cell phones ?
Solar panels are actually cheaper than roofing tiles and slate 😮😊
The limiting factor on the rates of solar installation is no longer the cost of the panel's it is now the availability of properly functioning hi longevity battery systems and the associated which is to say factually the limiting factor globally now is Tesla and their production of mega pack systems and software control
solar needs to make use of the heat energy at the same time
Great news
The main reason solar panels are less expensive, is the demand has dropped. Large scale solar projects all over the place are ON HOLD. As with wind, the ROI isn't there, and no one wants to be the next Solyndra.
By the way...what was Seba's explanation for that?
While you're crowing about China solar, please explain why your coal exports to China haven't gone down, but have INCREASED. Also, please explain why the dozens or hundreds of planned COAL plants in China are being built, if they're using more solar and less coal.
Tony Seba was shilling for companies he invested in; he even said so at the beginning of his talks. It worked for some of his investments, NOT ALL.
According to our friends at Google the world consumes aporox 25,000 terawatts per year. That's 25 million gigawatts, so adding 500 gigawatts of solar is great but barely a drop in the bucket?
That’s the panel potential, so a 500w panel could produce 500w of electricity in perfect conditions in one hour. In the UK that panel would likely produce 500kW of electricity over a year. Different output in other countries obviously
You are using the wrong units. You are using power, which is "Watts", you should be using "Watt HOUR" which is a unit of energy.
2030: 90% renewables Worldwide? Not gonna happen. Infrastructure can't be developed to it. Not to mention storage!
Oil is gonna be here for a very long time.
And I am all in for renewables. Would love to happen. But it simply won't. Unfortunately. Huge hurdles ahead!
Look at an exponential curve , then look at the fossil fuel sponsored lies about renewables and evs :^)
As of January of this year, 2023, 6 percent of US energy was produced by solar. At a 50 percent CAGR, 30.5 percent in 4 years, 102% in 2030. Have you sat down and done the math? You would be surprised how fast exponential S curve works. Google technology disruption curve and automotive valley of death, not death valley autos and see some of these curves playing out now.
@@GG-si7fw Would love to see you have right in the future. Am all in for EVs and renewables but unfortunately you can't CAGR 50% the workers who would do the installations. That's the reality.
The problem is to compare a smartphone or a car adoption S curve to a global problem like energy. As we use more energy the previous energy(mix) stays in the system simply because our energy need grows so much we can't phase out the previous sources from the mix(coal to some extent but oil,gas no.Not yet.). Plus new technologies increases the energy consumption even with significant improvements in energy efficiencies occur. Think like transistors, fridges, AC systems. These getting more energy efficient but more and more people getting them. Hense = more energy needed.
@@GG-si7fw ua-cam.com/video/sgOEGKDVvsg/v-deo.html
Where is the best place to buy DYI solar panels and components. In USA. I’m in Michigan.
THERE are many problems with solar. The biggest problem is Night, next comes the toxic substances, then cloud cover, then lack of raw materials, then poor recycling, huge footprint, low power density, huge amounts of CO2 released to manufacture panels, have to replaced them every 20 years, must have a backup power source to handle that nasty nighttime problem etc, etc.
It doesn’t matter how cheap it gets or if it is free, if it is wrong in every sense, then it will fail. There are small scale applications for solar in remote areas and that’s about it. At large scale it does not come close to Nuclear energy.
Levelized cost of generation studies done by experts say solar farms are highly cost effective and cheaper than nuclear. If you install solar panels on your roof you can clearly see they area cost effective. Many studies show this.
Morning mate
It's Wright's Law.
Moore's and Swanson's Laws are derivatives.
1. Pessimist and correct
2. Optimist and incorrect
3. Optimist and correct
Which is best?
Which is worst?
So when should I buy, guy? What should they be? Looking at panels and LFP. 20Kw in panels, and the same in storage to begin.
The cost of solar came down 96% in 20 years.
Ist this adjusted for inflation?
Tony says almost nobody will own cars. We have taxis and public buses but most people love owning, not using far cheaper public transport. He’s not correct always.
Do whatever you can to put solar on your roof. Sell your granny if you have to, but get panels and a battery installed. The poorer you are the more important it is to get panels installed. Do they work all the time? Nope. Are they perfect? Nope. Do they make a difference to your energy costs? Absolutely. I’ve had a small pylontech battery and seven panels since March and so far this year I have saved almost £400 on my electricity bill! Live in a flat? Get a balcony kit. Rent? Get a diy ground mounted kit. GET SOLAR!
Another one…EV sales are flat. 😂😂😂 the media is clueless…
BS, where is your data? Every year EV sales increases. Look at Tesla's annual growth rate. Its growth rate is over 40% and that has been the case for 10+ years.
Solar heats the area, as it is dark instead of lighter vegetation reflecting back to space. We simply need populations to have smaller families and get down to 1 billion or less folks. We are unsustainable without major manmade global disasters right now. Polluting the planet massively.
Do you have any idea why solar stocks, and chines ones like jinkosolar as well, are falling so much and have over the last years?
🙋♂️SAM,AN OPTIMIST,IS A GREAT 👍 THING …I TRY TO BE ONE TOO 😊💚💚💚😊
Thanks Mate!
Never listen to other people no matter who they are blindly, use your mind, do your research, then use your instinct and intuition and see the truth yourself... this is the truth that sets us free. Time to wtfu sheople.
We need the home robotic vacuum cleaner Selfparking and connecting technology in every EV. 😊😊😊
Correction, not Mores Law but Wright's Law (ref ARK Invest)
Can you explain why chinese solar stocks are tanking and at an all time low?
Adding RE, while overall energy demand increases, makes things difficult. New, cheap, RE may even cause more demand. More demand should do useful things, but its confusing.
Not always the case. We added 9.9 kW system to our all electric house two years after building it in 2016, and it has been a game to reduce electric usage (so that we pay little or nothing net to our utility) while improving QoL. Now we use heat pump summer/winter (and much less 240 V electric wall resistance heating units) updated to induction cooktop, mostly use smaller air fryers instead of large oven, and similar small things. Our annual Kwh use is 9400 down from 13,500 with greater comfort than ever. Even replaced one car with an EV which gets charged from some of the daytime excess PV panel production (rather than sell it all back to the utility) It is fun to learn little tweaks that add up to substantial savings.
Don’t call victory yet Sam. The laws of physics and economics have not been repealed.
I'm back an Tony Seba 👍
We need EV sipping electricity and trading electricity and stability with the grid.
The spread of PV solar panels maybe the cause of grid instability.
Solar panels and their AC power created by inverters does not add stability to the grid since there is no spinning reserve involved.
A proper power plant with a turbo generator (synchronous machine) can deliver grid stability due to simple electromechanical properties which solar can't.
I highly doubt more than 50% of wind and solar is feasible in terms of grid stability, backup and storage costs and grid expansion.
Just look at the madness in Denmark, California and Germany.
High consumer prices and still no where near the French carbon free grid with their nuclear fleet.
Any wind turbine installed in 2020 will be demolished earlier than any French NPP will be decommissioned due to age reasons.
@@newyorker641
Listen to Simon Michaux, we are both wrong, his latest. 8 days ago.
'The Green Transition will not .......'
Raw materials is our biggest problem.
We have had a burst of cheap energy from fossil fuels, our population has expanded and the climate is changing.
Clean renewable energy is a bigger problem for the world than we understood.
Even nuclear energy is limited by the grid expansion costs.
Free electricity is limited by the cost of expanding the grid.
@@stephenbrickwood1602 Grid expansion is minimal with nuclear, France will not do it with less than 50% nuclear since it would be too expensive at system level.
All these strategies towards a carbon free future have to be analyzed separately.
In middle Europe there can be weeks without notably sunshine and wind, like Germany in December 2022.
So a SWB system would never be feasible there.
Always listen to people that have build power plants, operated them, run power grids and listen to more than one.
Making your own decisions is very hard. It depends on your qualification (I've studied mechanical engineering), your skills (I've build 4 pv systems, one with storage) and your interests - mine are very wide, including NPP.
Then and only then you are able to form a conclusion, a compromise, which is very close to reality.
There is never "that one specialist", it is always a complex arrangement of perspectives.
As I said I find the French strategy the best all around compromise of many factors.
Most future predictions are simply wrong, Philipp Tetlock has analyzed 82,000 of them between 1987 and 2003 and most (more than 85%) were wrong because predictions are impossible, especially in a multifactoral environment.
Has Tony Seba considered this? Will his "energy transition" be part of the 85%? Why is electricity so expensive in those areas with lots of renewables? Why is electricity cheaper in Finland (40% nuclear) than in Germany (50% renewables)?
The IEAs repeated failed predictions for solar growth are hilarious. Every year they say it's gonna stop growing.
Pessimists get to be right, optimists get to be rich.
Thanks to Kevin 07
If they passed a law that you don't start to pay for 6months after installation without problems people would feel more secure about buying
Have you seen warranty on solar installations?
@@Tschacki_Quacki There is no warranty. The installers close up shop every 5 years or so and open a new company so they never have to deal with their shoddy work.
Wright's law.
It’s wonderful that solar is growing, but it’s not keeping up with the need for energy. China is also building more coal power plants than anyone else.
Solar will slow down when it has to be supplemented with batteries to provide base load power. In California NEM3 will definitely slow down the states rapid growth in solar.
I think this is not the complete picture: remember that oil companies have only mere percents of investments in renewables in their portfolio. For the carbon emissions to come down you need a deep decarbonization and we're late in decarbonizing in fringes like heavy transport, airlines, agriculture and there are tragic amounts of emission from gas leaks, deforestation, forest fires, HFCs ongoing. I'm sorry my friend, but capitalism will not solve climate change. The system will need to change...
Wind turbines are cleaner and more nicer
With chinese decoupling and Taiwan invasion looming, renewables means resiliency!
first
Is that you, Greta Doomsberg?