No he bases on history. To say that Ukraine not being completely taken over by Russia and now they are on offense taking Russian towns is not a victory for Biden is crazy work
@@amandamcgovern5744 Yup, and he hasn’t claimed that Harris’ chances are greater than Biden’s would have been since Biden’s drop-out, to my knowledge at least.. Lichtman’s whole thing is that the polls and debates are meaningless noise in terms of predictive value. Which they are, historically.
Many of Lichtman's 13 keys are subjective. He claims the economy is strong and the current administration has foreign policy achievements. You can spin the answers anyway you like.
"He claims the economy is strong and the current administration has foreign policy achievements. " The economy is definitely mixed. I suppose I would give the Biden administration foreign policy achievements but I'm not sure that translates directly to Harris.
Lichtman doesn't see one incumbent dropping out mid race and another incumbent taking his place without a primary and has yet to answer hard questions where/when/how that decision came about as a "controversy."
Yes, the guy lost me at that point. Robbie was attempting to ask a question and the guy got irrationally angry about it. All he had to do, was quietly correct Robbie's point, and then answer the question. Getting over the top angry about it is a clear sign that he's emotional and reactive.
@@sgtpjwinkels3483 Despite the fact that his book proves him wrong. I believe the 1990 version of his book states that his system predicts the popular vote, which he then had to edit out after it incorrectly predicted the popular vote and worsened his credibility.
@@cabanacaterer Yes. I think it's a legitimate position. Data is objective, but interpretation is a judgment. His subjective judgment about Ukr is separate from his predictive methodology.
@@matthewpalmer9820 "they are winning cause they led an incursion into Russia." *Russia laughs while still occupying a third of their country* He seems pretty detached from reality.
@@delriver77 how on Earth is this a win? Russia and China are now in an alliance. Russia is stronger than ever and controls more of Ukraine. Global prices sky rocketed. This was a massive loss.
@@phil00075 in 2000 he Predicted Gore over Bush. The race was too close to call so the courts handed the win to Bush. Later investigations showed Gore actually got more votes so...
Lichtman will go after Nate Silver EVERY chance he's given. I think he not only personally dislikes the man, but finds it offensive that a pollster, who only got ONE election correct, is given so much air time. lol
@@contagiousreligion also, Lichtman approached Silver and said let’s bury the hatchet and co write a paper about election prediction together and Silver didn’t even acknowledge him so I don’t blame Lichtman as Silver has shown himself to be an arrogant pissant.
He doesn't poll. His keys have predicted the presidency for 40 years. One day they will be wrong, as ALL forecasting models are. But they haven't been yet.
Most elections have not been hard to predict first of all. Kamala is literally the least intelligent and qualified candidate in US history, pretty much.
Well compared to Trump, he’s an erudite, articulate, focused, principled scholar. Whereas the orange ogre is falling apart…. They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats, they’re stealing your pets.
@Sleepylevi no, it's how easily he gets triggered by any pushback on his process. Add that to the way he seemed so over the top hostile to Nate Silver. He came off really bad.
@@Ladiesman-js3kt just as you guys were wrong on Trump sentencing.. Does that sound familiar to you?? All your negative predictions about Trump will definitely go wrong..
@@earlhigaki not true. The key is based on the party in the white house success or failure in governing. Kamala benefits from Biden's wins and suffers from his failures
He hasn't forgotten about it. He didn't mention it here but has mentioned it many other times. Litchmans position is, righty or wrongly, Afghanistan didn't matter that much in the minds of the average American, and was quickly forgotten, so its not significant enough to influence the election. Unfortunately, i have found many people dont really seem to care as much about the absolute debacle the withdrawal was as they should
The war could have been avoided if Russia chose not to invade. That simple. Bill Clinton shares some responsibility, taking nuclear weapons from Ukraine and giving them to Russia. But overall Russia is at fault.
“The first party to retire its eighty-year-old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley DT said Mexico would pay for the Wall.
“The first party to retire its eighty-year-old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley DT said Mexico would pay for the Wall.
Koodos to Robby for keeping his cool with this guest, someone does not like to be challenged. We all learn when our ideas are subject to scrutiny, no need to get sensitive. Someone here needs a snack.
Lichtman was incredibly rude here, he could've offered a polite correction after Robbie finished speaking. Good on you Robbie for not going to his level. And while there may be some merit to the general idea of his keys (you need to run government well to get re-elected) he is way too determinative about it. Biden having qualified success with NATO (how much was given to Turkey to get Sweden and Finland in?) can't outweigh multiple foreign disasters. And to say that campaigning has 0 effect is ridiculous- why does he spend all his time on his channel trying to convince people of how bad Trump is if so? Further, his theory is no more or less scientific than Nate's- both have a hypothesis which they test. Even if he's done more tests than others, that's still a very small sample size. I'd have a lot more time for him if he had some humility and saw himself as part of the predictive ecosystem rather than the only game in town. I'm following his channel in the hopes that he'll have to eat crow after the election, but it's more likely he'll simply shift the goalposts as he has done in the past.
@@jasonr8364 I'm genuinely curious. Why are you voting Harris? As a swing voter, I'm not wedded to any specific party. Trump has said some things that I don't agree with, but the Biden/Harris Whitehouse has failed miserably. There's nothing genuine about these people, in the slightest. Whilst Trump wouldn't be my first pick if i did get to, i like RFK, I like Tulsi, I like how Trump has conducted himself recently and I like his policies. Also, JD Vance seems like a nice, genuine, well spoken person. Kamala just seems so fake. She's an objective failure. The Biden White House has lied and covered up and finger pointed. Ergh.... How can you vote for them? Is this just a "vote blue no matter who" thing? No issue if that's the case. I understand tribalism and such, just curious as to if it's metric based or just habitual?
@@zigjib Biden has created the strongest economic recovery to a recession I've ever seen. Saying he failed is silly. Trump is a felon and has promised to be a dictator, he wants to institute loyalty oaths for every single government official and destroy democracy. This isn't a hard choice, Trump is the worst person who ever held the presidency in this country. Even Buchanan at least had a peaceful transfer of power.
@@zigjibif you are even considering voting for trump I’m guessing you don’t fully grock the fake elector scheme of Trumps. You’ve asked critical questions about one party, which is fair. Can you explain your understanding of his elector scheme?
@@conr2141 Did you watch the show and actually listen to the man? Looks like age is catching up with him, and his grasp on reason, logic and "achievement" is slipping...
@@conr2141 What is subjective is claiming that the economy is doing well right now and giving that key to Harris. His track record may have been accurate, but I assure you his bias now is tangible.
He also predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 & that Pence would become president after Trump’s first impeachment. I take this guy with a grain of salt as I do Silver
@@rcg9573 if I’m putting doubts on silver’s prediction that Trump has a better chance of winning the electoral college, I’d do the same with Lichtman’s as well. Your comment makes no sense
Just so people are aware, some of Lichtman’s published books include “Repeal the second amendment” in 2020 and “The case for impeachment” in 2017. When someone is screaming in your face about how objective they are, you can be 100% certain that they are anything but.
Allan Lichtman would be the first to tell you he personally has a left wing bias and that he is a democrat. Nevertheless, he predicted Trump would win in 2016 when very few people did. There isn’t really a history of substantial bias clouding his judgment.
I’ve been watching this guy for 10 years. He is actually very thorough in his predictions. I thought that he would be wrong in 2020 because of the uncertain future and events, but he wasn’t, and he correctly predicted that the election would be VERY close, and he certainly wasn’t wrong. I have a lot of respect for him and he could technically be wrong, but he has a great track record. And this news anchor did kind of put words in his mouth about his previous statements, so I don’t blame him for getting upset, but it still shocked me just a little bit. Hey did you know Trump thanked him for his prediction and signed his name on a note and sent it to him? Not saying that for any political talking point, just saying it because it literally popped into my head as I was writing this.😄
That's what got him so angry. He'd still be predicting a Biden victory if the campaign didn't drop out. Maybe should have made a 14th key asking "Is the candidate's brain rotten?"
For the US? Sure it was. They are now making billions of dollars by selling their liquefied natural gas to Europe and replacing Russia as their main commercial partner energy-wise. At the same time, they have destroyed most of the USSR remaining military equipments and annihilated the whole Russian military, even putting Putin's hold on power at stake. They have gained Sweden and Finland as new NATO members and isolated the Russian threat so they can focus on China without any distractions. And all of this was achieved without losing any American soldiers, and giving Ukrainians older equipment and ammo which were going to be disposed of anyway (which also costs money). So yes, it was an ASTOUNDING success.
Gotta admit, this guy doesn't come off as an unbiased guy just looking at the data, his record is impressive, but his attitude doesn't exactly scream "I am an objective scientist just reporting the facts," especially his little temper tantrum at the end lol, what a little manbaby.
@@sankaratrucking5255 Perhaps he feels slandered, but I still stand by the statement that the keys are subjective. Certainly a person with differing opinions than he would give different keys to different campaigners, but saying that the economy is doing well right now and putting that in Harris favor is pure lunacy.
@@sankaratrucking5255 Yes he gets emotional…..that is not a good sign in an intellectual argument….he apparently thinks the louder and more emotional his delivery is the more cogent his argument is! 😂🤣😂
12/13 keys are independent of polling. Only the 3rd party key cares about polls, and Lichtman specifically states third party polling is cut in half to determine real support.
He knows he is full of bs, that's why he gets hysterical when he's questioned. He's been correct 9 out of 10 times. If you had 100 people flip a coin to pick the winner the 1 of them would be as accurate as this guy. This guys magic formula was predicting biden to win and he hates it.
@@yescoenrico8375 He's sure of how his system works, and he knows he has a track record. What bugs him is when people try to convince him that his system doesn't work the way he defines it to work. Like all the people in the comments here who think he said that the war in Ukraine has been a success, when that's not at all what he said.
"My system ignores pundits who don't have a scientific basis" - proceeds to describe a system that is 100% opinionated and that virtually no one will agree with all of his opinions on. Nate Silver at least understands statistics, this guy is the pundit
@@xxadoniskxx The Ukraine war has been a massive success for the Biden administration. USA has replaced Russia as Europe's main commercial partner when it comes to energy, they're making BILLIONS by selling them their liquefied natural gas. They've also annihilated the Russian army (there are barely any professional soldiers left after 600K+ loses) and most of the USSR military stock (including 8K+ tanks), protected Ukraine (they've recovered all of their territories since February 2022 except Crimea and Dombas) and gained 2 more NATO allies in Sweden and Finland, all of that without losing ANY American lives. Most of the "donations" to Ukraine are meant to reinforce the US military industry, generating new jobs and revenue and giving Ukrainians the older stock and ammo (which you have to dispose of anyway), don't buy into the narrative of the "billions wasted" in Ukraine, most of it is spent on American soil. Biden was able to endanger Putin's hold on power and has made the Russian economy vulnerable, it's not likely that they'll be able to sustain the war effort for too long (their interest rates are approaching 20%) while the Ukrainians have a significant support net thanks to their Western allies. The US has made Russia irrelevant in the international scene, so they can give China their undivided attention from now on. So yes, the Ukraine war has been an ASTOUNDING success according to every single piece of data available. Stop spouting nonsense.
He said that Biden putting together an international coalition that prevented Russia from conquering Ukraine was an historic accomplishment. Not the current status of the war in Ukraine.
@@gwrace that’s debatable.. but even if true, it would be irrelevant. It’s just a probabilistic model, like the models that predict the weather. We’re talking confidence intervals, not prophecy.. that should be a given, and he often highlights it.
@@mattpope770You do realize Jamaicans are of African descent? They were brought there to replace the natives as slaves. Harris is both of African and Indian descent.
Almost all of the original Jamaicans along with most other Caribbean Islanders died in the early stages of the colonial era from either direct violence but mostly disease. The people that are now there are mostly the descendants of slaves brought there from Africa to cultivate sugar.
This guy loses me at the end saying it was brain and spine to unite behind Harris. It was undemocratic, dumb and shows how corrupt both parties are. She lost my vote right there.
He’s also not taking into account the fact that the US is going through a Political Realignment right now. It has not happened in the last 40 years to which he’s predicted. We’re going though one right now
This is a good point. I'm a swing voter. I vote on policy - not personal attacks, I have to say... the Republicans are more and more looking like the party reason where in the Dems are looking more and more radical and unhinged. I don't like Trump, but I do like RFK and Gabbard.... 2 former Dems. After the last 4 years, and how the Dems have conducted themselves since 2016, I just absolutely could NOT vote for Harris.
@@monicae0601 It's possible he's just seen the results and just manipulated the information to fit those. I wouldn't put much weight on going back and saying "see, I knew Jefferson would win....". Its the current track record that needs to be assessed. In that regard, he's done well, but his analysis now of the CURRENT situation, I don't feel like he's on point and I don't think he's taking into account a lot of "key" points. Also, his review of the economy and foreign policy, whilst they may use some high society data points, the sentiment (and optics) of the situation don't correlate with his assessments. I think what we are seeing is he is Rotten Tomatoes Critic reviewing the situation.... but we all know if you want an honest assessment you go to the viewer ratings. They system is collapsing and the dems are losing control of the narrative. He's part of that mouth piece.
@@monicae0601 could he predict an election that’s already happened?Are you listening to yourself? If you do anything about him, he’s been making predictions and his keys weren’t developed until 40 years ago
@@elserenokid08 You can retroactively apply the methodology to past elections to see if it would have been accurate, and his keys are, all the way back to the civil war.
@@Sleepylevi No cope from me. Just a remark about the guest's behavior. He also snapped at Robby for misrepresenting one of his claims, and again when asked about Biden's prospects.
He did not say that Biden would win. He didn't make a prediction until a few days ago. And his system doesn't predict specific people to win, anyway. It predicts whether the candidate of the White House party will win.
2:59 Stop. That's all you need to know right there. Ukraine is a success. I mean, come on guys next is going to tell you that the economy is doing amazing
He didn't say Ukraine is a success. He said Biden putting together an international coalition that has kept Russia from conquering Ukraine is a major foreign policy success. He's saying that if Biden hadn't done that, Russia would have walked in and taken Ukraine with little trouble, and stopping that counts as a significant enough achievement to turn the foreign policy success key true.
Silver got the 2016 election wrong. He's going to get this election gone too. After that his reputation will never recover. Lichtman has called 9/10 elections only exception was 2000 where supreme court interfered.
@@Ladiesman-js3kt Because the polls were biased against Trump. Duh. We now know they were off by several percent, basically EVERYONE who was using the poll data got it wrong in 2016. Trump was a unique new phenomenon then, no one knew exactly how rigged the polls were against him until the election result came in. Now they do.
This is the most unconventional election in modern times, I don’t think any normal metrics apply. He could be right, but I don’t think his usual methods are as reliable under these circumstances.
People say that every time and he is almost always right, except for when gore lost in a supreme court Igor won the electoral college, but the supreme court chose for w
@@sankaratrucking5255 The ONLY reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the Democrats crapped all over bernie supporters and progressives at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home in protest on election night. He did not predict that would happen.
@@sankaratrucking5255 The ONLY reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the DNC crapped all over progressives and Bernie supporters at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home on election night. He did not predict that.
@@sankaratrucking5255 The reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the democrats used super delegates to put their thumb on the scale disenfranchising progressives and Bernie supporters at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home on election night. He did not predict that.
Litchman, how about you and your family trade places with a regular family in Massachusetts.? How about you just trade spaces with a average middle-class family from Massachusetts and they could have your life for about 10 years. You let me know if your same subjective “keys“ still hold true
Please invite Professor Lichtman back after the election. It will be interesting to hear his explanation of how the American people got it wrong. Science is not based on opinion and biases.
He also gove the 3 party key to Kamala. Becsuse RFK is polling in low single digits. At the same time he says polling is unreliable. Very scientific. Lol
He didn't say Ukraine is a complete success. He said Biden forming an international coalition that stopped Russia from conquering Ukrain is a major foreign policy success for the administration.
@@moiseshuerta3984 RFK Jr. dropped out of the race. The third-party key definitely goes to Harris because there is no significant third-party challenger. He admits any time you ask him that the third-party key is the only key you can't know for sure which way it goes until the election is over because it's based on how much of the vote (not the polls, the vote) a third-party candidate gets. Since he can't know that until the election is over, he makes an estimate based on the polls, but he requires double the polling numbers because of the poor quality of the polls. So a third-party candidate needs to get 5% of the vote to turn the key false, so he only calls it false if a third-party candidate is consistently polling at least 10%, and he won't call it if the candidate's polling numbers aren't steady. RFK Jr.'s polls were never steady, and they were usually below 10% in the last few months, so he was saying the key was likely true. Then RFK Jr. dropped out, and no one else was anywhere near a contender, so the key is true. So the actual key is based on the vote, not on pre-vote polls, but he can only call the key ahead of time based on polls, adjusted for more than just statistical error.
Isolationism almost lost us the war. Stopping aid to Ukraine would be like stopping lend-lease to Britain and Russia. You might see it as a waste of money now, but 5 years from now, if Russia wins, prepare to spend trillions on defense and send millions of men to Europe through the draft. Besides, we send EQUIPMENT & ARMS, not money. We send that money to defense companies to build arms for Ukraine, bolstering American manufacturing.
@anankinskywalker6587 on top of that we are learning many valuable lessons at a very cheap price (to us), from just a purely selfish pov, it's money we'll spent. The Republicans started off on the right side of this, they were pointing out how Biden was slow rolling all the aid and never giving them enough to win, it is actually shameful what Biden has done in that respect
This is easily Jessica’s best performance on this show so far.
Good bot
@@jfinity_362 good job* fixed it for you
@@joshdude1975 good job bot
LOL.
@@jfinity_362 good job dude* fixed it for you again!
“My method is scientific” proceeds to base everything on his opinion.
No he bases on history. To say that Ukraine not being completely taken over by Russia and now they are on offense taking Russian towns is not a victory for Biden is crazy work
...especially the "historic achievement" Ukrainian meatgrinder.
@@conr2141he thought Biden shouldn’t drop out in order to give dems the best shot… come on now..
@@amandamcgovern5744 Yup, and he hasn’t claimed that Harris’ chances are greater than Biden’s would have been since Biden’s drop-out, to my knowledge at least.. Lichtman’s whole thing is that the polls and debates are meaningless noise in terms of predictive value. Which they are, historically.
LOL
Many of Lichtman's 13 keys are subjective. He claims the economy is strong and the current administration has foreign policy achievements. You can spin the answers anyway you like.
Straight-up false.
"He claims the economy is strong and the current administration has foreign policy achievements. "
The economy is definitely mixed. I suppose I would give the Biden administration foreign policy achievements but I'm not sure that translates directly to Harris.
@@jeffjwatts which foreign policy achievement?
Lichtman doesn't see one incumbent dropping out mid race and another incumbent taking his place without a primary and has yet to answer hard questions where/when/how that decision came about as a "controversy."
The economy is good for who? No one I know thinks the economy is good.
Allan "You're making me angry!" Lichtman. Don't question my authority, or even seek clarification!
Then pivoted to "go buy my book if you want clarification." 😂
Yes, the guy lost me at that point. Robbie was attempting to ask a question and the guy got irrationally angry about it. All he had to do, was quietly correct Robbie's point, and then answer the question. Getting over the top angry about it is a clear sign that he's emotional and reactive.
@@sgtpjwinkels3483 Despite the fact that his book proves him wrong. I believe the 1990 version of his book states that his system predicts the popular vote, which he then had to edit out after it incorrectly predicted the popular vote and worsened his credibility.
These liberals are completely baffling me😊 they're completely complacent these liberals are blind
Hillary won all the debates?
What is this guy talking about?
My main takeaway is this guy got beat up by Nate Silver in high school.
this dude obviously doesnt have any friends. loves his own voice more than anything else.
LOL!
😂😂😂
Nate silver is a clown that got 2016 wrong
Gah Robbie you triggered the man 😂
all politics and polling aside - what a deeply unpleasant and ungracious character this Lichtman is
How is claiming that the war in Ukraine is a success based on science?
03:25 , 08:57 .
Because he wants it to be.
@@liuj88 not subjective…rather judgmental?
@@cabanacaterer
Yes. I think it's a legitimate position. Data is objective, but interpretation is a judgment.
His subjective judgment about Ukr is separate from his predictive methodology.
Lol. We're going with "Ukraine is winning this war" again? Really? 😂
Kudos to Robbie for not losing his cool.
Yeah Robbie boss moved. Didn't react, didn't get defensive, didn't apologize. Just keep going. Chad
I thought Robbie was going to laugh in his red face.
@@WalterRussellSchaefer That would have been funny, but I think we just saw a lot of class from Robbie to not give that behaviour any real response.
Yeah...kudos to Robbie for maintaining composure
kodos???
i’m glad someone put Robby in his place.
he acts so arrogant.
His take on Ukraine is wild
Totally wild! Even Olaf Scholz now sees the absurdity of that "achievement".
@@matthewpalmer9820 "they are winning cause they led an incursion into Russia."
*Russia laughs while still occupying a third of their country*
He seems pretty detached from reality.
Exactly when I stop taking him seriously
He is right though. For the US, the war in Ukraine has been a massive win.
@@delriver77 how on Earth is this a win? Russia and China are now in an alliance. Russia is stronger than ever and controls more of Ukraine. Global prices sky rocketed. This was a massive loss.
Man I want to see this guy lose!
Who Allen or trump
Lichtman - "[Nate Silver] is just a clerk who compiles poles."
Lichtman blatantly disrespects other people than gets upset at the slightest pushback.
There was no push back but misrepresent him. Which he does a lot
Also his model has not always been correct. Wikipedia “Keys to the White House.”
@@phil00075 in 2000 he Predicted Gore over Bush. The race was too close to call so the courts handed the win to Bush. Later investigations showed Gore actually got more votes so...
Young fella got taught a lesson from the professor.
It’s polls not poles
Lichtman will go after Nate Silver EVERY chance he's given. I think he not only personally dislikes the man, but finds it offensive that a pollster, who only got ONE election correct, is given so much air time. lol
@@contagiousreligion also, Lichtman approached Silver and said let’s bury the hatchet and co write a paper about election prediction together and Silver didn’t even acknowledge him so I don’t blame Lichtman as Silver has shown himself to be an arrogant pissant.
You have to understand Silver and Lichtman take shots at each other constantly. They have a history that goes back years at this point.
Allan "I am the Science" Lichtman is the Dr. Fauci of polling.
He doesn't poll. His keys have predicted the presidency for 40 years. One day they will be wrong, as ALL forecasting models are. But they haven't been yet.
Most elections have not been hard to predict first of all. Kamala is literally the least intelligent and qualified candidate in US history, pretty much.
@@danielrutschman4618
I agree with both
Allan Lichtman
and Dr.Fauci! I’m
nobody’s fool!!
Dr. Fauci lied to save face, while Lichtman is just a hack.
Funny, I never heard 15million "newcomers" or gangs taking over housing complex's in his "keys".
Lichtman doesn't resonate with me. He's a woke Democrat.👎
Actually he's a reagan conservative lol. You people are so far right you think Reagan is a democrat now.
lol woke
lol woke. He’s been right for 40 years: Democrats and Republican.
@@pax6833yep. Even Romney wasn’t a rabid right wing MAGA stooge but a genuine conservative and so couldn’t get enough support.
Well this guy comes off as a lunatic
cope
Well compared to Trump, he’s an erudite, articulate, focused, principled scholar. Whereas the orange ogre is falling apart…. They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats, they’re stealing your pets.
He came off really bad here.
He came off worse in the last interview. Maybe he’s just this awful?
He's just not saying what u want to hear
@Sleepylevi no, it's how easily he gets triggered by any pushback on his process. Add that to the way he seemed so over the top hostile to Nate Silver. He came off really bad.
@@Sleepylevi i agree
Yeah I’m a fan of his content. But I didn’t know he hated Nate so much. He came off like a bitter jealous old man here 😬
He’s been wrong before… and he’ll be wrong again
Amen
Except for other 9 times...😂
There's always a second time for everything.😃
No he hasn't
@@Ladiesman-js3kt just as you guys were wrong on Trump sentencing.. Does that sound familiar to you?? All your negative predictions about Trump will definitely go wrong..
He forgot Afghanistan withdrawal. 😂
Kamala is running. Not Biden. 😂😂😂 The VP had nothing to do with the withdrawal therefore it doesn’t affect any key.
No he didn’t, Gaza was just more recent. He endorsed a policy failure already so the point is mute
good thing we finally got out
@@earlhigaki not true. The key is based on the party in the white house success or failure in governing. Kamala benefits from Biden's wins and suffers from his failures
He hasn't forgotten about it. He didn't mention it here but has mentioned it many other times. Litchmans position is, righty or wrongly, Afghanistan didn't matter that much in the minds of the average American, and was quickly forgotten, so its not significant enough to influence the election. Unfortunately, i have found many people dont really seem to care as much about the absolute debacle the withdrawal was as they should
Lichtman saying Ukraine was a success is subjective. There are MANY who think this could have been avoided.
The war could have been avoided if Russia chose not to invade. That simple. Bill Clinton shares some responsibility, taking nuclear weapons from Ukraine and giving them to Russia. But overall Russia is at fault.
All Biden has to do was call Putin and confirm that Ukraine would never be part of NATO.
Avoided?
Lol this guy sure gets his feelings hurt easy. Surely there’s no bias influencing his thoughts.
Do not buy this man's books. I'm sure he has a few.
Say what you will, he's never been wrong. You can't argue against that kinda track record. 🤷♂
@@hrs2044 Except he was wrong in 2000 😂
@@ffffnnnnul2125 Not really, Gore stepped aside for the sake of the country and the Courts basically decided the race, soooo.......
Totally. Robbie claims he’s liberal but it’s obvious he’s MAGA.
Mr. Lichtman, I will bet you $1,000 that you are wrong. If you have the sack, that is. And no, I'm not joking.
Are u?
He don’t know you cuh 😭
A vote for Kamala is a vote for Garland, Bragg, Mayorkas, and the rest of the swamp dwellers.
Did you see how much of the swamp Trump put in his cabitet?
And I like that vote. Which is why I am voting for Kamala/ Walz
A vote for Trump is a vote for John Bolton, Steve Mnuchin and the rest of the swamp dwellers. It is all swamp!
Hard to claim the "outsider" title when you've been president. Sorry, but the swamp includes Trump.
“The first party to retire its eighty-year-old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley DT said Mexico would pay for the Wall.
Nope its over. Trump time.
Or "let Trumpomania run wild brother" as the intellectual high priests of MAGA sometimes say..
Hahahaha ain’t gonna happen 😂
“The first party to retire its eighty-year-old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley DT said Mexico would pay for the Wall.
Im voting kamalla harris
Is that what you said in 2020?
Koodos to Robby for keeping his cool with this guest, someone does not like to be challenged. We all learn when our ideas are subject to scrutiny, no need to get sensitive. Someone here needs a snack.
Lichtman was incredibly rude here, he could've offered a polite correction after Robbie finished speaking. Good on you Robbie for not going to his level. And while there may be some merit to the general idea of his keys (you need to run government well to get re-elected) he is way too determinative about it. Biden having qualified success with NATO (how much was given to Turkey to get Sweden and Finland in?) can't outweigh multiple foreign disasters. And to say that campaigning has 0 effect is ridiculous- why does he spend all his time on his channel trying to convince people of how bad Trump is if so? Further, his theory is no more or less scientific than Nate's- both have a hypothesis which they test. Even if he's done more tests than others, that's still a very small sample size. I'd have a lot more time for him if he had some humility and saw himself as part of the predictive ecosystem rather than the only game in town. I'm following his channel in the hopes that he'll have to eat crow after the election, but it's more likely he'll simply shift the goalposts as he has done in the past.
He's not going to let a biased network put words in his mouth.
Nah, Harris honey moon is over
Hope so!
There is no honeymoon im voting kamalla harris
@@jasonr8364 I'm genuinely curious. Why are you voting Harris? As a swing voter, I'm not wedded to any specific party. Trump has said some things that I don't agree with, but the Biden/Harris Whitehouse has failed miserably. There's nothing genuine about these people, in the slightest. Whilst Trump wouldn't be my first pick if i did get to, i like RFK, I like Tulsi, I like how Trump has conducted himself recently and I like his policies. Also, JD Vance seems like a nice, genuine, well spoken person. Kamala just seems so fake. She's an objective failure. The Biden White House has lied and covered up and finger pointed. Ergh.... How can you vote for them? Is this just a "vote blue no matter who" thing? No issue if that's the case. I understand tribalism and such, just curious as to if it's metric based or just habitual?
@@zigjib Biden has created the strongest economic recovery to a recession I've ever seen. Saying he failed is silly. Trump is a felon and has promised to be a dictator, he wants to institute loyalty oaths for every single government official and destroy democracy.
This isn't a hard choice, Trump is the worst person who ever held the presidency in this country. Even Buchanan at least had a peaceful transfer of power.
@@zigjibif you are even considering voting for trump I’m guessing you don’t fully grock the fake elector scheme of Trumps. You’ve asked critical questions about one party, which is fair. Can you explain your understanding of his elector scheme?
Lichtman is allowing his bias to cloud the keys.
He predicted Trump in 2016, so that argument holds little water..
@@conr2141 Did you watch the show and actually listen to the man? Looks like age is catching up with him, and his grasp on reason, logic and "achievement" is slipping...
@@Rigatonitony23 lol.. now *that* sounds like subjective cope and bias.. His track record speaks for itself.
@@conr2141 What is subjective is claiming that the economy is doing well right now and giving that key to Harris. His track record may have been accurate, but I assure you his bias now is tangible.
@@griffinarcher2911 The economy is doing well judging by the commonly used metrics.. By what metric(s) is the economy bad?
The ego of a small man is always hilarious
explains why I always laugh at trump
@@Ladiesman-js3kt Trump is 6’3”, 280lbs
He also predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 & that Pence would become president after Trump’s first impeachment. I take this guy with a grain of salt as I do Silver
Yeah, and if he predicted Trump would win you would be happily singing his praises dear fascist. LOL
@@rcg9573 if I’m putting doubts on silver’s prediction that Trump has a better chance of winning the electoral college, I’d do the same with Lichtman’s as well. Your comment makes no sense
He doesn’t understand people aren’t happy with how they are being governed
Agree
Just so people are aware, some of Lichtman’s published books include “Repeal the second amendment” in 2020 and “The case for impeachment” in 2017.
When someone is screaming in your face about how objective they are, you can be 100% certain that they are anything but.
Allan Lichtman would be the first to tell you he personally has a left wing bias and that he is a democrat. Nevertheless, he predicted Trump would win in 2016 when very few people did. There isn’t really a history of substantial bias clouding his judgment.
Yup, dudes unhinged.
I’ve been watching this guy for 10 years. He is actually very thorough in his predictions. I thought that he would be wrong in 2020 because of the uncertain future and events, but he wasn’t, and he correctly predicted that the election would be VERY close, and he certainly wasn’t wrong. I have a lot of respect for him and he could technically be wrong, but he has a great track record. And this news anchor did kind of put words in his mouth about his previous statements, so I don’t blame him for getting upset, but it still shocked me just a little bit. Hey did you know Trump thanked him for his prediction and signed his name on a note and sent it to him? Not saying that for any political talking point, just saying it because it literally popped into my head as I was writing this.😄
Got to READ those books!
lol, biased, is that why he predicted trump in 2016?
Lichtman seems to behave like one of the anointed class. I guess that's why he categorizes his opinions as facts.
Didn't this guy say that Biden was the only Dem candidate that would win a while back?
That's what got him so angry. He'd still be predicting a Biden victory if the campaign didn't drop out. Maybe should have made a 14th key asking "Is the candidate's brain rotten?"
@@P.90.603 Bro you're the one that keeps lying. I've already showed you proof in another thread that he said ONLY.
no, he said that if Biden stayed in the race, he would have preserved the incumbency key, which would have been an advantage for the democrats.
@@P.90.603 From what I could tell, he amended it to that. I think he started with ONLY.
@@goose4165 Pretty sure that he said Biden was the only dem candidate it would work with.
Alan is a nut job.
The Ukraine war is a victory for this administration?!?!?
They probably the same people that thought afghan withdrawal was a success.
For the US? Sure it was. They are now making billions of dollars by selling their liquefied natural gas to Europe and replacing Russia as their main commercial partner energy-wise. At the same time, they have destroyed most of the USSR remaining military equipments and annihilated the whole Russian military, even putting Putin's hold on power at stake. They have gained Sweden and Finland as new NATO members and isolated the Russian threat so they can focus on China without any distractions.
And all of this was achieved without losing any American soldiers, and giving Ukrainians older equipment and ammo which were going to be disposed of anyway (which also costs money).
So yes, it was an ASTOUNDING success.
Russia invades a much smaller nation.
Ends up getting counter-invaded.
Yes, that would be a success.
@@GreaterThanGaming you believe Afghan was a success too.
@Xyz99899 no but the democrats didn't start Afghanistan, bozo
He used to be a lot more nonbiased, he's become super partisan
Was he partisan when he Predicted Trump would win in 2016?
MAGA is just big mad when something does't go their way.
Gotta admit, this guy doesn't come off as an unbiased guy just looking at the data, his record is impressive, but his attitude doesn't exactly scream "I am an objective scientist just reporting the facts," especially his little temper tantrum at the end lol, what a little manbaby.
you must be really qualfiied, with 10 predictions under your belt! A great statistician, like Alan?
If people consistently misrepresented your work you would as well.
sounds like trump
i bet you agree that trump won 2020…by A LOT!
Trump does the exact same thing
Alan Lichtman is used to his safe space University environment where if you challenge his dogmatic diatribes, it equates to receiving a lower grade.
No he pays attention. A lot of people on the right have been slandering him so he is defending his view point passionately
@@sankaratrucking5255 Perhaps he feels slandered, but I still stand by the statement that the keys are subjective. Certainly a person with differing opinions than he would give different keys to different campaigners, but saying that the economy is doing well right now and putting that in Harris favor is pure lunacy.
@@sankaratrucking5255
Yes he gets emotional…..that is not a good sign in an intellectual argument….he apparently thinks the louder and more emotional his delivery is the more cogent his argument is! 😂🤣😂
@@sankaratrucking5255 He's got hubris that warrants slandering.
He says his keys are independent of polling, yet brings up polls when talking about RFK.
BS!
12/13 keys are independent of polling. Only the 3rd party key cares about polls, and Lichtman specifically states third party polling is cut in half to determine real support.
Ah yea trust the grumpy guy who is incredibly defensive about being objective
Excuse me, grumpy keymaster, there's always a second time to be TOTALLY wrong.
That would be a first time. He hasn’t been wrong yet
This guy is PURE PROPAGANDA INCARNATED
I know, and I assume you say this from your vast academic experience to write Russian? How is Putin?
@@i0r-r-tjtkttl You're projecting.
Lichtman predicted dems would lose if they replace Biden. Now he has changed his tune
@@apoc5000 NO he did not. Stop lying; never made FINAL PREDICTION! RUSSIAN LEARN FACTS!
@@ScottHeritage I know, it bothers you, doesn it Boris? PUTIN OK?
Great segment. Robby did a great job of keeping his composure when Lichtman when after him. I don't think he even blinked.
This guy has severe Trump Derangement.
He predicted trump in 2016
that's what maga has
Lichtman clearly has been on point in the past but considering how wrong he is on at least 3 of his “keys” I’m not buying it
You think you know the keys better than him?
This guy must be a blast at parties
This guy is so full of himself
Cos he is sure of what he is saying i think.
Hes full of something 😂
He knows he is full of bs, that's why he gets hysterical when he's questioned. He's been correct 9 out of 10 times. If you had 100 people flip a coin to pick the winner the 1 of them would be as accurate as this guy.
This guys magic formula was predicting biden to win and he hates it.
@@yescoenrico8375 He's sure of how his system works, and he knows he has a track record. What bugs him is when people try to convince him that his system doesn't work the way he defines it to work. Like all the people in the comments here who think he said that the war in Ukraine has been a success, when that's not at all what he said.
And so he should be. A proven genius.
Lichtmans 'scientific model' consists of his subjective opinions on whether a key passes or fails. This guy is a crackpot.
then why's he always right?
Alan Lichtman was wrong about Bush/Gore.
No he wasn’t wrong! Gore won Florida and the Supreme Court cheated for Bush! Everyone knows that. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Lichtman also predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 & that Pence would become president after Trump was impeached
@@atreyucove7456. Yes, we do and trust they are hoping and wish they will be able to get the same thing done this time.
Dumbest comment so far 😂😂😂
@@MikeJones1995-z6qI was going to say to hold that one against him is crazy
This guy is a quack who got lucky. Bring him back on when Trump wins.
"My system ignores pundits who don't have a scientific basis" - proceeds to describe a system that is 100% opinionated and that virtually no one will agree with all of his opinions on. Nate Silver at least understands statistics, this guy is the pundit
Nate was also wrong in 2016 😂
Ukraine an Historic accomplishment????
I didn't know either. I thought it was an abject failure. Boy is my face red.
@@xxadoniskxx The Ukraine war has been a massive success for the Biden administration.
USA has replaced Russia as Europe's main commercial partner when it comes to energy, they're making BILLIONS by selling them their liquefied natural gas. They've also annihilated the Russian army (there are barely any professional soldiers left after 600K+ loses) and most of the USSR military stock (including 8K+ tanks), protected Ukraine (they've recovered all of their territories since February 2022 except Crimea and Dombas) and gained 2 more NATO allies in Sweden and Finland, all of that without losing ANY American lives.
Most of the "donations" to Ukraine are meant to reinforce the US military industry, generating new jobs and revenue and giving Ukrainians the older stock and ammo (which you have to dispose of anyway), don't buy into the narrative of the "billions wasted" in Ukraine, most of it is spent on American soil.
Biden was able to endanger Putin's hold on power and has made the Russian economy vulnerable, it's not likely that they'll be able to sustain the war effort for too long (their interest rates are approaching 20%) while the Ukrainians have a significant support net thanks to their Western allies. The US has made Russia irrelevant in the international scene, so they can give China their undivided attention from now on.
So yes, the Ukraine war has been an ASTOUNDING success according to every single piece of data available. Stop spouting nonsense.
He said that Biden putting together an international coalition that prevented Russia from conquering Ukraine was an historic accomplishment. Not the current status of the war in Ukraine.
They're still here. if trump was in office Urkraine wouldn't exist.
That Allan guy is a clown! 😂 He can’t answer his own keys correctly! 🤡
Still the best track record out of all pundits/pollsters in the prediction game though.. Cope harder bro.
@@conr2141 His "keys" are unbelievably subjective. Do you really know people who see the current state of Ukraine to be a "historical success"?
@@Rigatonitony23 Sure, but that's somewhat true with all soft sciences. His track record speaks for itself.
@@conr2141 He has still been wrong.
@@gwrace that’s debatable.. but even if true, it would be irrelevant. It’s just a probabilistic model, like the models that predict the weather. We’re talking confidence intervals, not prophecy.. that should be a given, and he often highlights it.
So he is all about science yet he thinks kamala is of african decent. Somebody tell him Jamaica is not a country in Africa
Where do you think the black people in Jamaica came from?
@@michaelweber932 just because you have black/dark skin doesn't mean you originate from Africa. Cuba. East India
@@mattpope770You do realize Jamaicans are of African descent? They were brought there to replace the natives as slaves. Harris is both of African and Indian descent.
republicans really shouldn't talk about race, it always sounds weird.
Almost all of the original Jamaicans along with most other Caribbean Islanders died in the early stages of the colonial era from either direct violence but mostly disease. The people that are now there are mostly the descendants of slaves brought there from Africa to cultivate sugar.
This guy loses me at the end saying it was brain and spine to unite behind Harris. It was undemocratic, dumb and shows how corrupt both parties are. She lost my vote right there.
U were never going to vote for her. Who are u fooling
@@Sleepylevi Yeah these comments are so obviously disingenuous it''s laughable.
@@Sleepylevi why would anyone?
Thank you for dropping Kamala. Go Trump 👍🇱🇷!
@@aman-qj5sx How are they disingenuous?
Look at the betting odds in Las Vegas. You'll get a better idea of who is favored to win.
What are they out of curiosity?
i want trump to win just to see this guy EAT IT
lol, 100%. Was pretty despondent over the current state of politics in the US, now, I just want this dude to cry.
@@zigjib lol
@@obiwankenobi661really you seem upset you goofball
@@dGuthrie1-hc2rx ahahahahahahaha
This guy is a psycho
Yeah Robbie needs help.
Cope and seethe
And Trump is a perfectly functional family father. Try again.
so is trump
He is a psycho if he doesn’t say Trump will win? 😂
He’s also not taking into account the fact that the US is going through a Political Realignment right now. It has not happened in the last 40 years to which he’s predicted. We’re going though one right now
This is a good point. I'm a swing voter. I vote on policy - not personal attacks, I have to say... the Republicans are more and more looking like the party reason where in the Dems are looking more and more radical and unhinged. I don't like Trump, but I do like RFK and Gabbard.... 2 former Dems. After the last 4 years, and how the Dems have conducted themselves since 2016, I just absolutely could NOT vote for Harris.
He predicted and went back all the way from the beginning of america and his keys have worked for all of them
@@monicae0601 It's possible he's just seen the results and just manipulated the information to fit those. I wouldn't put much weight on going back and saying "see, I knew Jefferson would win....". Its the current track record that needs to be assessed. In that regard, he's done well, but his analysis now of the CURRENT situation, I don't feel like he's on point and I don't think he's taking into account a lot of "key" points. Also, his review of the economy and foreign policy, whilst they may use some high society data points, the sentiment (and optics) of the situation don't correlate with his assessments. I think what we are seeing is he is Rotten Tomatoes Critic reviewing the situation.... but we all know if you want an honest assessment you go to the viewer ratings. They system is collapsing and the dems are losing control of the narrative. He's part of that mouth piece.
@@monicae0601 could he predict an election that’s already happened?Are you listening to yourself?
If you do anything about him, he’s been making predictions and his keys weren’t developed until 40 years ago
@@elserenokid08 You can retroactively apply the methodology to past elections to see if it would have been accurate, and his keys are, all the way back to the civil war.
This guest seems to have something against Nate Silver.
Calling Silver "just a clerk who compiles polls" is quite harsh, I think. Funny, though.
Because silver was wrong in 2016. Comparing his track record to Allan's is a huge insult. It's like yall are desperate for something to cope on
@@Sleepylevi
No cope from me. Just a remark about the guest's behavior. He also snapped at Robby for misrepresenting one of his claims, and again when asked about Biden's prospects.
@@Sleepylevihe was not wrong…he gave trump a 30 percent chance to win
trump beat the odds
😂 he got so mad at 7 24. D0NT MAKE LORD OF THE KEYS MAD!
He’s already incorrect because he said Biden would win and his keys failed to predict Biden being forced out/dropping out
He did not say that Biden would win. He didn't make a prediction until a few days ago. And his system doesn't predict specific people to win, anyway. It predicts whether the candidate of the White House party will win.
he never made a final prediction when Biden was still in the race, nice try, bud.
Robbie is a cool cat. He is the only one who can handle this cranky guy
This is one angry clown.
If arrogance were one of the "keys" Allen Lichtman would be our next president!
The presenter (Robbie) was busy fishing for a gotcha moment when he could have stayed professional and perhaps learn something new
Please have the professor back after the election is over. That's going to be must see tv.
"Nate Silver is a errand boy sent by grocery clerks" Col Kurtz Lichtman De Nang 1967
2:59 Stop. That's all you need to know right there. Ukraine is a success. I mean, come on guys next is going to tell you that the economy is doing amazing
It is a success... For the military industrial complex and everyone in their pockets 😂
😆Shocking to hear that part for sure!!
@@zerocool5395 This is accurate.
He didn't say Ukraine is a success. He said Biden putting together an international coalition that has kept Russia from conquering Ukraine is a major foreign policy success. He's saying that if Biden hadn't done that, Russia would have walked in and taken Ukraine with little trouble, and stopping that counts as a significant enough achievement to turn the foreign policy success key true.
He didn't even flip the foreign policy key I don't know why y'all are even talking about it
Lichtman wants us to take him and his formula seriously because of his PAST track record and then he acts like this? Nah. Sorry. Credibility lost.
Silver's forecast is based on data, Lichtman's is based on his opinions
Lichtman’s predictions are based on data.
Silver got the 2016 election wrong. He's going to get this election gone too. After that his reputation will never recover. Lichtman has called 9/10 elections only exception was 2000 where supreme court interfered.
Thumbs down.
So why did Lichtman get it right in 2016 when Silver got it wrong?
@@Ladiesman-js3kt Because the polls were biased against Trump. Duh. We now know they were off by several percent, basically EVERYONE who was using the poll data got it wrong in 2016. Trump was a unique new phenomenon then, no one knew exactly how rigged the polls were against him until the election result came in. Now they do.
"He's just a clerk who compiler polls."
"Polls are not predictions."
Priceless.
Whoa! We are having openly biased batcrap pundits on now ? This guy is shamelessly vested, this man is not a numbers guy.
Predicted the last 9 elections. Cry
@@Sleepylevi Will you hold me if I do Ho-mo?
This guy. I don't think he needs to be on again.
truth hard to handle?
This is the most unconventional election in modern times, I don’t think any normal metrics apply.
He could be right, but I don’t think his usual methods are as reliable under these circumstances.
This election is not much more different than other elections. We've had worse.
People say that every time and he is almost always right, except for when gore lost in a supreme court Igor won the electoral college, but the supreme court chose for w
People say that every cycle
The real Nostradamus has NEVER been right.
9:40 I'm not subjective, continues to forget about Afghanistan.
Everyone's already forgotten about Afghanistan
Why does this guy get any attention?
If Trump wins, they want to laugh at his performance on their shows.
because he's right
Poor, Allan. He knows he’ll soon be regarded as “Failed Poster” in his future bio.
woah, unhinged
BOY, he's a belligerent guy. I wouldn't have him on again.
sounds like trump
I have heard him before. This guy is so incredibly biased
But he predicted Trump in16” how is he bias
@@sankaratrucking5255 The ONLY reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the Democrats crapped all over bernie supporters and progressives at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home in protest on election night.
He did not predict that would happen.
@@sankaratrucking5255 The ONLY reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the DNC crapped all over progressives and Bernie supporters at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home on election night. He did not predict that.
@@sankaratrucking5255 The reason why Trump won in 2016 is because the democrats used super delegates to put their thumb on the scale disenfranchising progressives and Bernie supporters at the convention so nearly every one of them stayed home on election night. He did not predict that.
Watch the previous video they did with this guy. He spends the last 5 minute of the interview spewing TDS
Wishful thinking. He can't see outside his own bubble. With RFK Jr., Trump will win.
He a mad scientist frfr if he gave Biden a win for Ukraine
Allan Lichtman (now) comes off as a crazy old man with irrational triggers and very strange "historic" theories about the Ukraine conflict. Yikes!
Hopefully the wokesters will believe Lichtman and not bother voting.
This dude thinks we do no have any social unrest, he lives in another world.
Aside from republicans trying to storm the capitol, what unrest?
I started to believe him until I found out he was doing g this since 1850.
Video in which dude gets mad when someone disrespects his secret magic keys.
Social Unrest and no 3rd party? Lies
Litchman, how about you and your family trade places with a regular family in Massachusetts.? How about you just trade spaces with a average middle-class family from Massachusetts and they could have your life for about 10 years. You let me know if your same subjective “keys“ still hold true
Please invite Professor Lichtman back after the election. It will be interesting to hear his explanation of how the American people got it wrong. Science is not based on opinion and biases.
I am based on science: “Ukraine a complete success.” Just a joke. COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE. ZERO SCIENCE!
He also gove the 3 party key to Kamala.
Becsuse RFK is polling in low single digits.
At the same time he says polling is unreliable.
Very scientific.
Lol
He didn't say Ukraine is a complete success. He said Biden forming an international coalition that stopped Russia from conquering Ukrain is a major foreign policy success for the administration.
@@moiseshuerta3984 RFK Jr. dropped out of the race. The third-party key definitely goes to Harris because there is no significant third-party challenger.
He admits any time you ask him that the third-party key is the only key you can't know for sure which way it goes until the election is over because it's based on how much of the vote (not the polls, the vote) a third-party candidate gets. Since he can't know that until the election is over, he makes an estimate based on the polls, but he requires double the polling numbers because of the poor quality of the polls. So a third-party candidate needs to get 5% of the vote to turn the key false, so he only calls it false if a third-party candidate is consistently polling at least 10%, and he won't call it if the candidate's polling numbers aren't steady. RFK Jr.'s polls were never steady, and they were usually below 10% in the last few months, so he was saying the key was likely true. Then RFK Jr. dropped out, and no one else was anywhere near a contender, so the key is true.
So the actual key is based on the vote, not on pre-vote polls, but he can only call the key ahead of time based on polls, adjusted for more than just statistical error.
Imagine have to take a class with this guy, professor with a short temper 😂 Must be a nightmare for his students
He is using false information in his equation.
Nate Silver is right. And it’s not even going to be that close.
lol bet.
dude is FULL of himself. no way he had friends in school.
Lol ok?😂
Also I love how this guy acts like Ukraine is something great and not just a cover-up to keep Joe biden's money laundering process going.
My keys are scientific because I gave it to them. Ukraine isn't a successful, and the hundreds of billions spent are a waist of our monies
Isolationism almost lost us the war. Stopping aid to Ukraine would be like stopping lend-lease to Britain and Russia. You might see it as a waste of money now, but 5 years from now, if Russia wins, prepare to spend trillions on defense and send millions of men to Europe through the draft. Besides, we send EQUIPMENT & ARMS, not money. We send that money to defense companies to build arms for Ukraine, bolstering American manufacturing.
@anankinskywalker6587 on top of that we are learning many valuable lessons at a very cheap price (to us), from just a purely selfish pov, it's money we'll spent.
The Republicans started off on the right side of this, they were pointing out how Biden was slow rolling all the aid and never giving them enough to win, it is actually shameful what Biden has done in that respect
@@anankinskywalker6587
Russia still in Ukraine.
Goint nowhere.
Ukraine us in ruins.
russian propaganda
I hope he is wrong!