Tony Seba says it's the end of the line for oil & gas as IEA reveals huge problem
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- Опубліковано 30 чер 2024
- Tony Seba says i's the end of the line for oil & gas as IEA reveals huge problem
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#tonyseba #oilindustry #gas #fuel #energydensity
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Solar is no joke, we installed 20x400 watt panels and a whole house battery last fall, its been fantastic.
whishing you all the beast with your solar/battery installation have a similar setup and am very happy with the results.
It works for 20 years as per my knowledge
In 20 years it will be useless and you will get to pay for it again
Jolly good. Have fun paying for the disposal in 20 years time. Oh wait. They’ll just be dumped eh? That’s assuming the battery pack doesn’t burn your house down first.
@@thalesofmiletus2966 the 20 years is the minimum life for solar panels they should be good for 40 years if maintained properly
We have solar, induction cooktop, and electric cars. The only gas appliance left is the hot water heater that was installed in 2019. I’ll replace that with a heat pump model at the end of its life. Never going back to an ICE car.
Edit: oh forgot we switched to an all-in-one washer/dryer that uses a heat pump for drying.
Sounds like me, except mine is the clothes dryer and I have never needed a car, and I'm 78 now. I lucked out in that I am grandfathered into NEM 2.0 and make more electricity than I use.
@@danielcarroll3358what’s nem
How fortunate that you are wealthy enough to do that.
@@dzcav3 yes, we definitely recognize we are fortunate to have resources. We also feel that we have a responsibility to reduce our carbon footprint as many don’t have the resources to do so.
@dzcav3 Renewables will make transport and energy cheaper for everyone. There is investment still to be made, but the future is most definitely cheaper.
Here in Canada we switched to a high efficiency air-to-air heat pump to get off natural gas for heating our small bungalow. Regulations required that we also have some kind of old style furnace as back up for deep cold. Went went with resistance electric but last winter, our first full winter, it never came on once.
Also, the gird here in Ontario is already 90% fossil fuel free.
Well, hate to one up you but, At the other end of the country ie British Columbia, we've been 100% renewables for around 8 years, even the massive aluminum smelter runs on hydro!
@@grahamkearnon6682 Kudos to BC. But if you could come and collect Premier Ford it would be much appreciated. Then maybe we would have a chance to catch you.
Peak oil used to mean peak production capability. Now it means peak demand.
This is a correct observation. For decades, there was a thought that resources shrinking would drive prices so much that peak oil would be defined by the maximum capability of the producers to pump. Since approximately 15 to 20 years, this thought started to gradually change, when solar and wind energy started to kick in and more and more people started to believe that there will be a time when demand stops expanding thanks to better options being available.
I think according to the "old" thought, peak oil would not to be expected prior to something like 2060 or 2070.
We use more oil and gas today then ever. When exactly is Seba going to be right?
@@bunsw2070 Seba was surprisingly right already a few times, which is why everyone looks at what he says. However some of the predictions were maybe right luckily a bit.
However, I didn't read/hear Seba predicting peak oil to be behind us already. Or did he? Maybe I missed that one. However, with global peak oil in front of us, it is very logic that we use more oil every year. Peak oil will be behind us as soon as we use less oil than we used to. Quite simple.
I love my solar panels and power wall. Not only powering my house but allowing me to drive for free. Most of my drives are local and I charge at home.
Sounds great I'm on the way with the same setup. Hopefully in 1 month will have similar Solar + battery pack, but waiting for now Modal Y...
Do you need heat for your home?
I was wondering if you ever considered harvesting "waste" heat from PV Panels for space heating, hot water and clothes drying?
lol!!!!!! what about those who actually drives and need to rely on charging stations, the grid, roads..... without oil none of that would exist not even evs. your internet too is because of oil.
@@carholic-sz3qv Solar, wind, and nuclear power.
@@carholic-sz3qv So while your at it tell us how the oil industry survives without electricity?
I’m in Québec where 95% of our electricity is from Hydro, we also generate a surplus which is exported, our price of electricity is the cheapest on the American continent. 😮 The Provincial Government gives a $7000 subsidy when purchasing an EV , plus another $5000 from the Federal Government consequently the number and variety of EV 's on the road is skyrocketing.😅 The largest EV charging group Circuit Électrique's stations are everywhere and the province is well covered. We are very fortunate. 😊
Can someone tell the UK MP's 🙈
In my area there is a used panel reseller selling 29kw of panel for $1700 usd. We get 5.5 hours of sunlight ....almost 160kw a day for $1700 WOW This is why Tonys predictions will come true.
And I just installed a heat pump. With my EV , electric mower, E whipper snipper, and E snow blower I only have a hot water heater left on Propane. That one goes next year.
Oil has many by products , so it will never be obsolete.
True - like plastics. They peddled that lie about recycling and plastic "just breaks down in the environment". - from Chat GPT - Microplastics, defined as plastic pieces less than 5 millimeters across, have been found in various parts of the human body. Studies have documented microplastics in the human lung, maternal and fetal placental tissues, breast milk, and blood. The average person consumes between 78,000 and 211,000 microplastic particles every year, although this estimate is considered an underestimate. While the exact amount of plastic in an individual’s body varies, it highlights the widespread presence of microplastics in our environment and bodies.
I bought a Tesla two years ago. Last year I installed solar panels and a Powerwall. I no longer pay for transport or energy and my home is carbon-negative. Feels so good to give the finger to OPEC and the energy companies! 🖕🖕
That's cool. For the masses, however, buying a Tesla and solar panels and a powerwall is totally out of reach financially. Looks like the top 40 percent of the country will do fine but the bottom 60 percent will just have to walk. Is this really a good solution?
@@jlrutube1312 Fair point, however consider. The excess solar generated by the 40% is available to the 60% and will bring down average energy prices and carbon intensity. The EVs bought by the 40% will become available as used cars for the 60% to purchase, and avoid paying for gas/petrol in future years.
@@jlrutube1312 But walking is healthy, or it would be if it wasn't for the pedestrians and bicyclists killed by cars every year. Each year, unfortunately, pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities comprise about 19 percent of all traffic fatalities with approximately 6,000 pedestrian deaths and 850 bicyclist deaths. Another 76,000 pedestrians and 47,000 bicyclists are injured in roadway crashes annually. So the solution doesn't just consist of solar and all that, but also building safe streets that help both top and bottom.
@@MarksElectricLife I have been hearing that as more people go solar the public electric companies have fewer people left to support their grid and infrastructure and so prices for those people who remain will go up and not down. Maybe things will work out in the long run but at least for the forseeable future it seems to me that this whole renewable thing is helping well off people but is going to hurt everyone else.
I also wonder if a person bought a Tesla for 60,000 if they are going to be willing to sell it for less than 30,000. As a person with not a lot of money I think I would rather have a new ICE car for 30,000 than a used Tesla with an old battery. But anyway, hopefully you will be right about things. We will see. Have a great day.
@@jlrutube1312 What you are describing is sometimes called the "Energy Death Spiral" and its definitely a thing. It's a great shame that governments decided to sell off the poles and wires to private companies, creating a cartel of monopolies across the country. These infrastructure barons are motivated to make a profit on every connected customer, regardless of their usage. My own view is that governments should cover the cost of installing solar on all low-income and public housing. I would support my taxes being used this way as we all benefit from lower carbon emissions and more (cheaper) renewables in the market.
Re second-hand EVs, when I come to sell mine in a few years time I expect the cost of new EVs will have fallen as we move along the learning curve. So I won't expect to get more than $30K for it (substantially less, if I'm honest). Battery degradation shouldn't be a concern with modern EVs and there are many that have travelled more than 500,000 kms on the original battery. That's more than most ICE engines will endure. Fewer moving parts means less to go wrong. I hope that everyone will be able to afford EVs one day, so we can stop destroying our biosphere while lining the pockets of Arab oil Sheikhs.
I have just returned from a visit to Canada. On the Vancouver streets every 2nd or 3rd car is either a Tesla, or another type of EV. It was just amazing to see the uptake. In Australia it is hard to believe a change is happening as we have joined the race slowly (apart from rooftop PV). End of the line for Oil and Gas...the revolution is here, sadly the lies of the fossil fuel industry are getting more irrational to keep their profits.
Okay, I live in Vancouver and it's true, we have embraced EVs and particularly Teslas. We must have one of the highest Tesla-per-capita adoption rates of any city in the world here.
But you're exaggerating a _little_ bit. I would say that it's more like one in nine cars here is a Tesla. I go to a gym overlooking one of the city's main traffic arteries. While on the stair climber, I often look out the window and take a Tesla tally. Once I spot a Tesla, I keep counting cars until another Tesla passes by. Sometimes I only make it to one or two. Occasionally, I make it as high as 30 or 35. But on average, I don't make it to 10.
All in on all electric home and electric vehicles for past 12 years, with solar paneled equipped home with complementary battery storage. Haven't been to a gas/petrol station for 12+ years and will never own/drive ICE vehicles in the future. We have electric heat pump and electric heat pump water heaters so no fossil fuel sources required to heat or cool our home. Solar works, no need for fossil fuel sources. We have been net producers since 2012 installation, and send ~50 percent of our excess solar energy back to grid with Net Metering. Tony Seba is right and hopefully the transition happens faster than his prediction.
How has the heatpump water heater performed, we are on solar and was interested in looking at one.
👍absolutely agree…solar is perfectly matched to heat pumps (including hot water,space heating/cooling,and spas)
@@markdev4796 We are running a heatpump water heater as well and it performs very well. Prior to this, water heating by oil furnace used between 5 to 6 MWh/a for the house (2 People household). Now, the ENTIRE household uses 3.7 MWh of electricity still without the heatpump for the building heating. This said, they didn't promise too much in terms of energy saving on the product flyers.
Consequently this summer we are changing the heating for the house to be a heat pump as well.
Wish I could that..
All electric home, solar, batteries, but electric cars are ( for now ) simply too expensive here
The US will be shocked by the lack of demand for LNG but not in lack of demand for oil, the US like Saudi Arabia has been extracting as much oil as they can economically for 100 years... that takes a toll on reserves that don't require insane energy and resources to get produce. A lot of the US "oil production" is NGL and other things that are generously credited as domestic oil production. I think the average consumer would be disappointed and change behavior if they knew how much goes into producing the domestic oil that we do, only to still need to import a massive volume for our 20 million barrel a day habit.
Oil companies here in the US, and probably the world, are already moving into solar and wind. Here in Texas they own a lot of windmills and solar power plants and are still building. They are also beginning to move into Geothermal.
A University of Texas team has said there is more recoverable oil in the Gulf of Mexico than has been extracted since 1859. The current recovery is like they blindfoldedly threw darts at the map. With a systemic mapping of the sea floor there will be abundant oil for decades - the major obstacle will be politics that ban drilling.
The Saudi oil will decline until they turn to fracking- not easy without water. Perhaps Israeli desert water technology will show the Saudis the way to fracking. The Israelis grow crops where less than 1-1/2 inch of annual rainfall occurs. The desert soil is fertile with a little water.
Water, not so-called green energy is the greatest need. Future popular sized gasoline vehicles will get 80+ mpg with 1,000 mile range - if you have a good job and can afford it.
I don't know who ToSeba, he is another "expert" waiting fo coffin. He can't save himself - let alone save the planet. The planet is fine, we are heading for the grave - the only forever property that we possess.
Increased C produces reduced desert - satellite images show that plants thrive with greater CO2 . The tiny ports needed by photosynthesis can open less, reducing water loss.
@@timothykeith1367 You don't get it do you? here is enough recoverable oil to fry humanitty many ttimes over. The stuff has to be left in the ground for tthe sake of our grandchildren and generaions yet to be born. It is very clear from your comments that you are rather clueless about the effects of a 4 deg C global mean temperature rise over pre- levels. It is not often the case that CO2 availability is the dominant factor in vegetation growth. Nutrients and water are more important, whatever you might think. You should also understand that will cause the displacement of hundreds of millions of people who live just above sea level.
@rogerphelps9939 BS. You have been duped. It's all a lie.
@@timothykeith1367You are preaching to the converted. Don't waste your time with facts on these idiots.
The discovery of oil peaked in 1964.
Since then, discoveries have declined, while demand has increased.
Demand is now higher than discoveries.
Unsustainable.
No it is not.
@@manuelferreira4622Yes it is.
You are not considering the shell fossil fuels that appear to be massive here in the USA.
@louishendricks-tv1sx
I wish you well.
Cheers Gray
Australia
The only reason why the party has continued is that with the growth of vehicles, the efficiency has also improved - though it recent years it has been going the other way. If demand increases by 5% a year, note that demand will have doubled in just 7 years. Plus as the value of oil has increased, it has become financially viable to get at high cost crude like offshore drilling. They would go into Alaska if they could.
Yesterday there was a report in the news about how we’re gonna be short on electricity. So if renewables can’t keep up, oil and gas will be used to generate electricity.
Sure, but peak oil doesn't mean that oil & gas just stop being used. Peak oil only says O&G will be on the decline. Give it some time.
Specifically, the US/EU/Canada are on track of hitting 2035 goal of net zero grid by 2035. US can meet its 4251TWh annual electric grid demand on just its solar growth alone which is currently at ~233TWh annual generation but growing at a very large 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). That doesn't even include US wind annual generation which currently even exceeds US solar generation but solar is growing faster.
That won't happen. So don't worry about it.
I have the solution.
I have invented a new energy alternative that's about to change the world in a most profound way.
My name is Jerry Calvert and my invention is called the, 'Hydra-Kinetic Motor'.
By this time next year the whole world will be turned up on its head. Stayed tuned.
Remember what I said. Just remember.
The way Blockbuster video died was slowly and then suddenly. Petrol technology will look really dumb in 2035.
When you run out of petrol you can at least walk or hitch to a petrol station to buy a gallon in a can and walk back.
A stranded EV is much worse
@@chefineerOil burners are going away mate.
@@keepitreal2902 74 million miles last year on diesel. 46 million petrol. 2 million EV. (UK figures)
Have you got a realistic timescale for the end of oil ?
@@chefineer Once again, some one who totally fails to grasp the nature of exponential change
@@keepitreal2902 @keepitreal2902 lol chatbot
Look around your house. Almost everything in your house and anywhere else for that matter is oil based.
The end of oil is just bull shit.
I don't see the demand for oil dropping significantly any time soon. I am all for renewable energy and electric cars but we currently use 100M barrels of oil/day. That's a lot of energy...
You're right that IS a lot of energy.
The sun provides (every day) enough energy to power our entire civilization!
The rate at which renewables are now growing, is faster than new consumption is growing. Worse for fossil fuels is that much of the new consumption of energy is going renewable. That's a killer for them, when you factor in that many of their current customers are transitioning as well.
Of the 100M barrels, only 1/3 of that is "actually" converted into usable energy. There is a video explaining that we only need to produce/replace 1/3 of our current fossil fuel energy needs.
1 barrel of oil is approximately 1700 kw/h - a very large wind turbine can produce around 10,000 kw/h PER DAY = around 2000 barrels of oil per year equivalent.
If you take the 1/3 ratio, it would mean 6000, so 10,000 wind turbines would equal 60M barrels of oil equivalent per year.
As you can see, it isn't impossible to replace - if you do the same exercise with solar panels, you will be even more shocked: (around 300 x 300 miles of solar panels 200 x 200 you use the 1/3 ratio).
@@cav4290 The problem though, is that as we switch more to wind turbines, we need to make more wind turbines using the output from existing wind turbines...which leaves less for domestic customers, unless the rollout is very slow and is dependent on oil
@@cav4290I'm on your side. I have personally reduced my fossil fuel consumption by 90% over the past 10 years and still working on it. That said, I think your being a bit optimistic.
1. I would tend to agree with the 1/3 idea when it comes to burning fuel to produce motion in a vehicle. That's because heat is wasted. I don't agree with respect to burning fuel for heat to produce steam for a turbine to produce electricity. I'm sure that's much more efficient than 30%.
2. You seam to have mixed up barrels per day with barrels per year. Its 100M per DAY.
We also have to be realistic about where we are at in this experiment. The time to go green was 30 years ago. There is already a LOT of bad news baked into our immediate future.
@@HomesteadEngineering Hello, you are correct with the 100 M per day - but in any event you see that a relatively small solar/wind can easily cover.
So just multiply everything by 300 - no one said it is easy, what is important is that we go in the right direction and that we keep it that way for the next 20-30 years and we will reach our target.
After hearing again about the Western Australian Woodside gas future pollution fest, I signed the petition, then thought about it.
I decided to replace our last gas appliance an instant gas hot water heater.
I found I can get Instant ELECTRIC hot water!
Removing yourself from the polluters bottom line is the most effective protest.
Just today EU reported colossal decrease of gas and coal use in EU. Around 20-25% for 2023. There 19% increase in renewables and 2% increase in nuclear. Nuclear will rise may be 15-20% or so in next months as many reactors were shutdown in 2023 for renovation. So coal may shrink by further 30-40% this year
Shame China and India have surpassed the savings from the EU.
@@thalesofmiletus2966 actually China and India will leapfrog Europe and US. They will just build many things clean ....
'Ministry for The Future' by Kim Stanley Robinson is a book which describes how the world transitions to sustainability. It's a really interesting read.
I've had solar on my roof for 5 years now. Haven't paid any power since.
Dear Viking: In Switzerland, our local peak oil was 1973 with close to 15 mio t/a of demand. 2022 we were at 8.8 mio t/a.
So the industry already lost 40% of its customer base here. I have a friend who used to be our oil supplier for the heating. He had taken over this little business from his father. He went out of business about 15 years ago and sold his customer base to a competitor. He said: "look at the statistics, there will be less and less demand. Sooner or later that won't make any sense. So I prefer to act now". He is doing just fine by now in a different business.
Of course, Switzerland is a tiny portion on the global market. But many other countries will follow in these footsteps very soon and that adds up finally.
Example: Of Germany, a market about 12 times the size, from 2019 to 2023 the monthly consumption also went down from more than 9 to approximately 8 mio t/m.
The best way to help speed up this process is to help anyone you can install Solar, Heat Pumps, EVs, Battery Storage and Electric heating/cooling and cooking. The more those around us change, the faster it accelerates the process.
Been following Tony Seba / Adam Dohr and Rethink X for years he/they, have shown great intuition and knowledge on battery costs energy disruption - Solar wind and battery seems a great solution to energy independence - can't wait to see your solar roof conversation and your chosen battery storage choices and installation - thanks for sharing Viking! Skal!
The demand will go down, and the price will be three times higher 🤔🤔🤔
😂😂😂😂. Exactly.
When demand drops, you sell less. When you sell less, economies of scale decrease. When economies of scale decrease, it costs more per unit to produce. When it costs more per unit to produce, the price goes up. And when the price goes up, demand decreases. Pretty obvious, when you actually think it through.
@@shannon6876 Not necessarily. Take it from a Bcom graduate. 😉. You are only considering one variable in a industry with many competing players. There are many factors at play.
@@shannon6876 Like it did through the pandemic? 🙄
Investments in new supply will decrease more than the demand drop so prices will rise. It's not like demand will just fall off a cliff. It will slowly go down
All of of America needs to closely follow what the IEA international energy agency is telling us. Thank you Sam for broadcasting
Why? So we can become as de-industrialized and imports dependent as Germany?
Tell that to the stupid politicians. Republicans will hold onto fossil fuels if they take control of the US in 2024. They also don't believe in climate control.
So Time shall Tell.
Everywhere needs to pay attention to what is happening. Who really wants to be left holding the bag at the end of the transition?
@jimthain8777 WHAT transition? Unless we're moving towards a non-industtislized society, there IS no transition. There is only a political movement that has been with us since the beginnings of the industrial revolution. Even the government force being used to cram green doen people's throats is fading.
If oil production is increasing faster than demand, gasoline prices should come down. Electricity prices are INCREASING due to renewable sources (examples, California, South Australia, Germany, Denmark). JD Power just reported EVs have 50% more service needs than ICE vehicles. So, people should keep their ICE vehicles for greater dependability and lower costs.
The oil demand in 2023 was so little more than in 19, that i wouldnt wonder if the peak were this or next year.
Because of the rise of ai within 3 years the energy requirement will be 17 times higher 😢 So, all the coal oil industry is going to boom unfortunately. ( Source: Just search the UA-cam video the dark side of AI)
@@mahbubhossainshamol9362 Note that the energy requirements of AI will increase 17 times, not the total energy requirement. Quite a difference that.
OPEC predicts peak oil not happening. I am shocked.😂
Already had peak oil.
BULLOCKS. JP Morgan Chase, who knows a hell of a lot more on the topic than EV fans has said the world will be short 7 million barrels a day by 2030. EV’s have been factored in!
Conventional oil has already peaked. US fracking is junk oil as fields typically peak within 2-3 years, not enough time to recoup investment. It also polluted underground water in many cases.
Cause: incessant economic growth, particularly in Asia.
Right now, there is a recession in the EU, North America and China masked by high inflation. Governments and media a lying about the situation. This is why oil is relatively stable at the moment, but release the brakes and cut supply chains due to war, and you’ll have $300+ oil overnight. Also, that new EV, which requires a lot of oil to produce, will soar in price.
Bottom line: the infinite growth paradigm that is the world economy is not sustainable. Furthermore, EV’s won’t do much to change that picture in the foreseeable future without reduction in demand for all things.
Peak oil is a myth.
@@lomotil3370 I prefer the olive variety.
@@lomotil3370 , nope.
8 billion people plus resource constraints is not a myth.
Declining gasoline demand in the US will have an outsized effect on farming as well, since we subsidize corn ethanol production so heavily. So as gasoline demand dries up, the corn lobby and the oil companies will be fighting over the scraps. Both parties will lobby Congress to end subsidies for the other. I suspect the result will be Congress dropping the mandate to blend 10% ethanol into gasoline and dropping the ethanol production subsidies. That will put a sudden glut of corn on the market which will drive down food costs, driving smaller producers out of business. Yet another disruption, though this is just bursting an artificial bubble created by the Government.
Well, it would be nice to have lower food costs.
And I don't see a problem with ethanol from other sources, for example grasses. That would improve livelihoods and rural areas.
Ethanol industry is already pushing E15. Next up E20.
@@steven4315 But they are not making from cellulose yet.
@@tireddad6541 Cellulosic ethanol has been a failure, millions were injected into research - requires more energy than it produces. Like green energy, it would require ongoing subsides and tax credits- if it even scaled up to production volumes. This was a big topic under George W Bush
@@steven4315 Yeah, I know they're pushing higher blends. Ethanol production emits more CO2 than just burning gasoline. Thankfully, the EV future will end that madness.
Rural folks still need to visit the gas station. I myself have Tesla car and solar and batteries. However, I'm a farmer and still have to go buy diesel and regular gas for tractors and lawn mower. Smells and I hate the process, but battery powered mowing at the scale I require to farm my orchard isn't possible with battery power yet, buy I'm yet hopeful. Keep up the great posts and all the best.
I think agricultural equipment will be one of the last to convert to electric.
Need a tractor with a big ole solar canopy.
Being that farms have tons of space/roof space, I am thinking farms are a natural first choice for installation of solar panels and storage. Makes sense that industry really start to focus on creating battery farm equipment for farmers...
Why ?
Search for fendt electric tractor (Fendt e100 vario or e107 vario) ..Also John Deere seems to develop an electrical tractor. (I know there is also a mini electrical tractor....farmtrac 25G. this mentioned for those who need small tractors)
Maybe more expensive to buy...but with solar panels on a barn roof and a home storage you'll save many thousands on energy every year. And less maintenance on the engine. (
Remember this when you need to replace the currently used equipment.
(I suppose that you'll take a lunchbreak after 4 hours using a tractor and an evening mail after the next 4 hours....and recharge during the breaks from an installed home battery, charged on a roof filled with panels.
@@markapplejohn4376No farmer can tolerate battery charging delays " Make hay while the sun shines' because wet cut hay is ruined. A hail storm can destroy a wheat crop. Time is critical in agriculture - ripe tomatoes without timely harvesting spoil.
The larger the diesel powered tractor, the greater the fuel efficiency. Fuel cost has been a factor in farm acreage growth since the 1940s.
It's been reported by major news organizations........🤣🤣
It's the minor ones like Sinclair that fudge the data. They require their local news broadcasts to use scripts from HQ with no variation allowed. And people think their local station has independent news. Sad.
You want to call him on it?
Google what he's saying for yourself.
Tony is the reason i went all in on Tesla back in early/mid 2019.
I've wondered if getting off oil could be globally destabilizing - as countries that depend on that take a nose dive. Concerned it could cause wars....
It will prevent many more wars than it will cause.
IEA has missed every renewable milestone every year for the last decade, based on this latest statement, peak oil is probably closer to 18 months away than 5 years away.
Good point. Tony Seba has pointed this out multiple times.
I’m hoping so 😮
Peak oil has been a decade away for 50 years, yet oil consumption has increased throughout
I wonder? about this seba guy, he is not some nephew of Nostradamus?
@@orionbetelgeuse1937 He probably represents some large investment funds and is directing market purchases
Thanks, important info.
Why would the price of gas and oil "skyrocket" if theres a surplus of them?
Profits.
The companies involved have promised investors generous dividends.
Yeah, I've rarely heard this point addressed. I, too, wonder what will happen to the price of oil as demand drops. Should it not become much cheaper? Won't there be gasoline price wars as the oil companies compete for a shrinking pool of customers?
What happens is there is a glut, many players go bankrupt, those that remain now have a tight market and the price sky rockets.
Investments in new supply will decrease more than the demand drop so prices will rise
It's been coming for a long time and it's not exactly surprising to everyday people. It's the oil and gas industry that is still in denial 😮
All what you mentioned uses oil and gas to produce these items, oil and gas is used to make the boats planes trucks etc that get these items to the store where you buy them many of these items have fossil fuel as part of their make up. Your dreaming if you think your solar panels etc are made and delivered without using fossil fuel.
I like that phrase - The internet of electrons. Great phrase for the future of energy. One we have to pursue.
I can’t wait to see your house, covered in Solar Panels. My house is maxed out. Actually not really. I’m gonna install another 10 kW.
My electric car has been running off grid for 12 years. I have a big lithium battery that’s making all the difference.
I need to put solar on my roof. I’ll install it myself (it’s not rocket science!) and save half of any quoted project cost.
I guess I don’t understand why increased supply and less demand will make prices go up. Basic economics says the opposite. Is this article saying that the price drop will cause suppliers to crater in, resulting in less available refined products?
Less demand, lower margins, some businesses become unprofitable and close. Eventually scale of economy is lost, prices rise, further killing demand.
I think the theory is: Oil companies are factoring in continuous growth of the entire industry into their development including exploring new sources and pricing etc.
With demand starting to shrink, they are going to miss a certain % of their sales volume, but in the same time are still continuing to explore etc. eventually leading them into a situation the only way for them to pay their exploring cost is to increase prices on the lower volume sold.
Since many of these companies don't see this coming in spite of the messages spread, they do not change their plans timely and this is a system coming with a huge inertia, like a big tanker ship. Unless they start to plan for peak oil NOW, they will see themselves in trouble by then.
@@beatreutelerI think you’ve summarised this thesis very well.
When oil price drops, other consumption practices of oil always become more economical - so usage always rises - if global production capacity is sufficient. Just as with wealth some will buy a 2nd home, some businesses will arise to consume "cheap" oil. Some farmers burn corn as a heating fuel because it's cheaper than propane. Oil is too versatile to remain fallow. There is no economical substitute for petroleum synthetic plant based plastics could lead to global starvation.
Yes. A price that is too low will cause suppliers to go out of business because they cannot make a profit.
Great stuff! Four big needs for regular citizens. 1. Low interest financing for non carbon cars, batteries, heat pumps, insulation, etc., ala the US Fannie Mae home loan program. We citizens are primed and ready to install solar and batteries and heat pumps. But we need more access to affordable capital.
2. Affordable home storage batteries. The batteries in a new car now cost less than $100 per kWh. Most home storage batteries, however, are still over $800/ kWh. 3. Simple and inexpensive EVs. 4. Induction EV charging under roads and at charging stations. Induction charging will allow vehicles to have smaller and less expensive batteries.
Wow! That is a shocking statistic about the disparity in the prices of EV batteries and stationary home batteries. Why is that? It seems to me that getting into the business of manufacturing stationary batteries should be relatively simple. Why isn't there a ton of competition to bring prices down?
Driving an EV for just under 3 years, never back to ICE. Had solar panels/inverter & battery installed in last month. UK resident. Amazed by how efficient the system is, even when cloudy!!😁😁👍👍☀☁
I have panels and their output is tiny on dull cloudy days.
UK based too and had my system installed last Friday. Saturday was great and did 47.8kWh, Sunday and today where fairly overcast and still did 24kWh. I expect this will be much less in the winter but been impressed so far!
@@steve_787 Where are you? Don’t be too accurate. I’m on the 55 line of latitude
@johnfrancis4401 Buckinghamshire, so 52 degrees latitude. I had an 8kWp system put in. 8 panels on East, 5 South and 5 North using 445w Aiko panels
@@steve_787 I only have 7 x 400W panels 4 facing east and 3 facing south. Typically on a sunny day I get 2.6kW out of a max of 2.8kW at 11 am Overall I’m very satisfied as the EV car is free for a few months of the year and much reduced costs for the rest of the year
When you finish your solar at home, let me know. I'd be keen to drive down from Coffs and shoot a video of it, using my pro gear and drone which you can overlay with a narrative, or just give you all the footage.
I enjoy your channel, this is my first time posting. I myself live in the US and produce over 100% of my power requirements with solar. I don't understand how France could shut down nuclear in any meaningful way due to the time demand for energy, the night demand needs to be accounted for since power plants can not be switched on and off easily. I will pay off my solar loan in less than one year and then will invest in a battery system to counter my non production time. Please let me know if I am not factoring in something. Thanks again for your news and content!
Electric cars are already displacing 1 million barrels of oil per day even though they are in the early adoption stage. Once enough EVs have been sold and fuel use starts to decrease, profit margins on fuel will begin to fall due to lower demand while still needing to maintain infrastructure. Within a few years we will likely see the low profit margin gas stations starting to close. This increase in fuel costs will drive more people to EVs, further increasing fuel costs, causing a further acceleration of EV adoption.
The efficiency of appliances needs to be mandated , you dont even need to generate it if you dont use it , that is by far the best way to focus . Of course we can look at that as individuals too and put more emphasis on star rating knowing in some cases the appliance will completely pay for itself in savings over its lifetime vs an older unit.
We have Solar, Home Battery, Heat Pump Hot Water Heater and a EV. It has surprised me how quickly the cost is covered by not having to pay for electricity and fuel over the last few years.
Sam good luck with your Solar/Battery installation.
There’s also oil &. Gas needed for plastics, lubricants, paints, cosmetics, asphalts, plus big machinery will take awhile. But low hanging fruit is transport & power gen. Is the main focus now. Also if we can super increase walkable cities , walking , cycling, transit.
Solar panels are truly beneficial, in the bigger picture of energy. We have 11 of them on our roof, here in Calif. Too bad that some “professional installers” can be scammers.
I am sitting here East of San Francisco in a darkened neighborhood because the grid has failed during an extreme heat wave. I’m fine because I have a roof full of solar panels and battery backup for 12+ hours. My grid usage this year has been around 2% of my energy. It would have a surplus but I now have two electric cars, both BEV.
Good!
That means cheaper gasoline for the rest of us, right?
Tony is right on the money. He’s nearly always correct, and anyone who doesn’t listen is a real fool.
If there is an over supply of oil, wont that drive gas prices down?
Not as long as OPEC runs the show!
The problem with this is the situation in cold countries with little sunlight. Only nuclear or fossil fuels will suffice.
Norway does not use nucleair power. Their hydro systems work perfectly well...aslo as a big energy storage (pumpnig water back to highe elevated lakes when there is surplus on electricity-) Can be done in most regions with enough elevation diffrences
If you look at a global map of solar insolation (suns strength at the earths surface) the lowest levels in the further north and south latitudes is about 3 kw/m3 and the highest regions are about 7. This only means that you need twice the number of collectors to achieve parity, not that the lower insolation regions don't get any energy from the sun.
@@reiniernn9071 Norway is a big country with sparse population. It is mountainous. It has a massive war chest of funds accumulated from their oil and gas resources. It is nothing like UK or Poland or Germany.
@@inediblenut If the country was sparsely populated maybe people would tolerate the farmland being covered with panels. If the country was wealthy they could afford to put the systems on house roofs…..but it is expensive. My solar panels and batteries cost £13,000, but most people cannot afford this outlay. I’m obviously not against renewables but they need lots of time to get installed and in the meantime we need oil and gas.
@@johnfrancis4401 Renewables already make up a very large and growing share of German energy production.
Utopia on Earth I cannot wait. Peace
Utopia on earth requires better human beings.
Looking at the US right now, it's NOT happening.
Only in your dreams
@@capnkirk5528 How exactly is the US the problem when there are some power hungry dictators running around? lol
Only Jesus will bring peace.
In one day Jesus will destroy all wind generators and solar panels(and roofs) with 100 pound hail stones. Human Utopia will be destroyed in minutes. just a few minutes. I say, let it begin! Only after false hopes are ruined can peace reign upon the world. I'm not opposed to solar panels, but it won't save you, it wint save Tony Seba from tge grave, it went save me.
I'm getting around pretty well with a bike - less reliance on tech is the best for me. Sam's roof covered with solar panels is evidence of poorly constructed house. A home can be designed to require 90 percent less energy so a handful of solar is all he'd need - but he doesn't do biking or cheap 50 mpg cars so he needs to feed the EV.
I don't
need an EV at current costs. I'm an energy nerd, but the legs God gave me get me where I need to go. A folding e-bike can make tge bus system work much better so my 50 mgp $1,000 car lasts longer because it's mostly parked
"And great hailstones, about one hundred pounds each, fell from heaven on people; and they cursed God for the plague of the hail, because the plague was so severe" - Revelation 16:21
Human nature needs to improve, yes. But recent MIT discovery of photovoltaic water evaporation (no heat) could mean easy access to fresh water from the oceans and the greening of vast deserts in the future.
There are so many comments saying if petrol demand goes down so does the price. Ask yourselves this question: Why have solar panels and Tesla's gone down so much in price? Volume production due to increased sales This is Econ 101 guys. More volume=lower prices so what does less volume and less sales do? Yes, it's simplistic but still true.
Did you say oversupply then say prices will go up? I am confused?
Oh, again…
Must be monday…
Predicting the future is like hitting a baseball. It’s hard. Even approaching 50% accuracy is fantastic let alone 90%.
"no, no, no..."
Did they really go like that, seriously? 🤔
Can’t wait for the glut - my boat is hungry 😂
The energy company where I live places a limit on solar production for individuals. So my roof is only 1/3 covered by panels on my modest-sized house and I produce 105% of usage. If was able and chose to produce more I would gladly donate a portion to needy users if there was a mechanism to do so.
It's not needing energy rights, it's needing a electricity supply infrastructure that can handle small micro producers, which most of the world does not have.
Predicting the future of renewable energy is basically predicting the future of government policy. With the right policies in place in 1973 we could have had 100% renewables now. With the wrong policies in place now, we could extend fossil fuel use until 2100 and beyond.
@$5 a gallon for diesel here in California. We think about traveling. If it's sluggish, it's because of cost.
Oil execs riding around in electric golf carts. "It will never work."
We have been all electric for 30 years, I do however prefer my LPG gas stove and grill. I will wait to see what happens with gas and diesel here in the USA. We do things a bit differently here.
In other words, we will see peak demand in less than 5 years...
Covering your roof so that all you can see is solar panels sounds good in theory. BUT this then raises some serious issues when it comes to tradesmen accessing your roof at any time in future for maintenance or repairs of any sort. Leaving no walking space around the panels on the roof makes things very tricky. Solar panels generally should not be (and are not safe to) walk on top of. Cleaning drains or guttering, repairing any leaks, etc all becomes very difficult.
I hope so, though I think oil production will go down to about 20-40% of what it is now, and sit there for awhile.
AEMO says that the East Coast of Australia will need 26 new gas power stations to back up renewables but they will need to run on diesel because of a shortage of gas on the East Coast, so much for Net Zero.
Elon is the man and so is Tony
I've seen credible predictions of EVs overtaking ICE new sales in 2028. This is a happy coincidence.
Congrats Sam on your solar project. I assume you're not collecting rainwater 😮
If demand for oil falls the price will fall, it's basic economics. Some oil deposits are very cheap to extract. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq can produce oil for under $10 a barrel.
If you want to see where oil and gas are headed just look at the coal industry 😮
You mean the industry being restarted in a panic because solar and wind are losers? Hmmm...
Better get China on the phone; they're building at least 60 NEW coal plants. better get Germany on the line; they're restarting coal plants and re-opening their coal mines. Oh, and better ask Australia and the U.S. why they keep exporting coal to non-existent customers...according to this scam artist and Sam.
We use plenty of gas and oil for creating synthetics like plastics, fertiliser, hydrogen, grease,... The only use I can imagine for coal will be iron production
Global coal demand is increasing every year.
Not for much longer.
@@Leonardo555ZZZZJavins Paradox?
Unfortunately IEA and EIA (USA) are famous for their prediction failures☹️
As a fan of electric cars this is the future but not overnight. We are a year or two off anyone noticing. The truth lies between opec and Seba. Hope Tony is right but these changes take a few years.
All electric here with solar, EV, air source heat pump, heat pump water heater-have only a gas dryer to replace. No battery yet-and we want to add more solar, but need to wait for more $.
Tony, Tony I love you !!
There can be no oil "glut". The word glut suggests an excess of production, like you might expect with over-sown crops etc. No, in the case of oil, if demand drops as predicted then extraction drops too. Basically It stays underground, there is no glut.
We use mainly natural gas here in the states
How do they plan on stopping BRICS nations from fueling their industry and economies based on oil and coal?
By showing them it’s cheaper, cleaner and more efficient to use renewables….money talks, saving money changes minds!
Look at why Ethiopia is banning new ICE imports. It's an economic plan to not pay other countries for coal, oil and gas to power the country. Better to use one's sun and wind.
China and India know that tthey are screwed if they do not ditch coal.
@@dougm659 but we have to buy all the resources from China! lol
There is a still a big subsidy on Fossil Fuels, something around 7 trillion USD right now..
In Australia the power companies are now charging people to offload their solar electricity into the grid hmm.
It’s X. Jeez, why can’t you get.
Don't forget the impact hybrid vehicles are having on the fossil fuel companies. Also in UK 10% of petrol is biofuels. So every 10 petrol cars in 100 are running on non extracted fuel..
Biofuels are ludicrously inefficient. 2%.
On top of which they damage car fuel systems long term.
As with most renewables enthusiasts, you need to remember that taxpayer money can’t sustain massive moves to solar etc.
Just have a look at the north west of Australia, multiple gas production plants they’re not going away anytime soon, having said that we’re been Offgrid for bout 9 years now and living it
Have you considered. . . the period? It could change your world--as well as your ability to make yourself understood!
There’s still lots of other uses. Since peak oil is a fact, Peak oil means loss of Cheap oil. It will take decades to replace air traffic & shops, and semi & train fleets around the world.
😄I agree with you✅✅✅✅
if there's an oil supply surplus the prices go down, i'm not sure what your missing...
I have a Tesla and 2 ICE passenger vans. The EV is so capable and low-cost to operate that we seldom use the others which reduced gasolene use even more. Less ICE car maintenance too with fewer miles.
Gas filling station at 8 .12 minute is near me in Beckenham and the Tropical Fish shop across the road with the blue hoarding is where I got my tank and my fish from.Across the road from there is a Pizza Express BTW . Beckenham is where David Bowie grew up
Are you OK?
@@dragonisland4250 😅😅
I have 17 solar panels and an electric car. I power the house and have transport for NZ$1200 a year.
We need to eliminate plastics made from oil. Industrial hemp instead.
I'm ordering solar now for my property and a few other people's properties
When has an industry ever lied about or tried to unduly influence a market for profit?
I think this is a "bit optimistic" here everyone comments on they have solar, etc... But probably they are (way) below 10% of the population. It means 90% does not have and tons of people leaving in huge block houses, so they never will. Also majority of Humanity is "poor". Does not mean they don't have anything to eat but they live day to day... So even if they have access to roof surface that roof is 20-40 years old so not even able to support the solar panel systems weight. Even if they don't have money to install it. "Cheap" solar still 40-50K USD with Inverter battery is still very expensive... So the point here is ICE CARS produced TODAY WILL BE RUNIING for 10-15-20 YEARS!! In those "less rich" families in eastern Europe, Asia, India, Afrika, etc...