Tony Seba's 10 NEW energy & EV predictions are blowing up the internet
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- Опубліковано 23 гру 2023
- Tony Seba's 10 NEW energy & EV predictions are blowing up the internet
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#tonyseba #solarenergy #renewableenergy
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I first heard Seba in 2006 with his predictions and knew he was right. The next year, I started working in the wind power industry, selling thousands of wind turbine systems, then transitioned to solar about 5- years ago, selling tens of thousands of solar PV systems, helping Seba’s predictions come true, and they have. I own 2 EV’s and power my house with solar and a small wind turbine.
Cool how much energy does your wind turbine produce
Respect Sir 🙏
Lol! A seller of dreams....
About squat! He's grid connected!
@@ken-mb5cpno, so you should just give me all your stuff
As an engineer with 50 years experience in nuclear power, semiconductors, computers and A.I., my response is Mr Seba's predictions are nearly perfect. I am already readjusting my future plans. Thanks to both of you.
50 years experience in nuke....
NO need to Adjust future plans....
YOUR almost expired...
Then there’s the Moltex static salt reactor that is literally fuelled by nuclear waste. Its build costs are similar to gas fired plant. But its fuel costs are extremely low. They can burn new fuel but extract almost all of the energy so their waste has a short 1/2 life. They can also take existing nuke waste and use that as fuel.
@@davidelliott5843... and where is a 1,000 MW "reactor" to be found? And what is the price of the produced kWh?
The waste fuel costs are low-but it is expensive and difficult to enrich them. The enriched uranium for the IMSR must be produced using centrifuges, while the Moltex design proposes to use a special chemical process called pyroprocessing to produce the plutonium required to fuel it. Pyroprocessing is extremely costly and unreliable. A physicist (M.V Ramana Princeton University) who has analyzed different nuclear reactor designs, including small modular reactors, believes that molten salt reactors are unlikely to be successfully deployed anytime soon. MSRs face difficult technical problems, and cannot be counted on to produce electricity consistently.
Thank you Lawrence. Someone with life experience talking sense
Tony blew me away over 10 years ago, I saw his vision immediately and started telling people. I then started investing accordingly, told everyone. To this day not one person (only my wife trusted me) in my circle believes me. I'm going to be a multi millionaire, my wife and kids are set for life. Thanks Tony, it's all because of you 🎉
What are you looking to invest in based on these predictions?
@@AlbatiQue ? I'm already invested, long time ago. Did you read my post? I've done my best to keep spreading the word but no-one wants to hear it. I'm now laughing all the way to financial freedom by 50 years of age. If Tesla does a 10x from here I'm in private jet territory (I would never do it, just making a point). By being open to paradigm shifts and doing heaps of independent research even a financial novice like me is crushing it.
@@user-bj3sn3rl3y yes I read your post above, maybe on the above predictions by Tony Seba you had to do some readjusments of your portfolio.
@@user-bj3sn3rl3ySometimes it's important to listen to what's going on in the world. Know I have almost only one suggestion, and unfortunately you can't buy it...
That is training, some walking and running almost every day, a little bit of gymnastics and "weight" lifting.
Then much vegetables for food, and you will increase your chances of having an enjoyable rest of your life.
I still find it hard to invest. Most solar companies are not doing too well. Most of them will disappear. Same for electric car companies. Competition is cruel. I would definitely avoid fossil fuel companies. This revolution will be good for consumers, not necessarily for the investors.
Tony Seba is a great analyst and deserves a lot of credit.
Been my source of solace and inspiration for many years.He is a GREAT figure in history whether we see it or accept now or not
Absolutely loved this one. Its fun to be alive during this 'disruption' and a bit scary too.
There won't be many people who live to see this "disruption" through to the end.
All those that got the clot shot for example.
Be careful what you wish for...
Definitely a rough ride abead. Too many people identify with tbeir jobs and a lot more are stuck with tradition. The friction is just too high
Change is life. Deal or die.
You are totally right Sam regarding Tony Seba's forward looking predictions. Long time fan of Tony's and believe he is going to be right once again. Thanks for doing this!
Videos like this give me hope and a reason for optimism about the future of our planet and children!
i dont have children
You don't have to have children to have hope and optimism for the future generations of our planet. @@PazLeBon
Even if Tony is off on timing by more than 50%, it’s still means that all of this will come to fruition before 2040. Not really all that far off in the future. Most people can’t perceive exponentials so it’s no wonder why most people can’t comprehend what’s about to happen.
was going to say this....ill be a retired senior in 2030, and from the 70's to the 30's my whole world will chanhge yet again!! yikes
To understnad exponentials take a chessboard, put inedollar on the first square, 2 dollars on the secon square, and so on doubling the amount on each subsequent square until you've covered all 64 squares. how much money will be on the chessboard at the end? And is there that much in the whole world?
Viking do you know why your channel does not garnered million of views per video? This is because majority hate what you are saying. They know you are right and they just despise your view. I think you are brilliant and keep up the good work.
A universal truth about humans is that having belief systems challenged can be very painful. That’s why people were burned at the stake.
Yes there are dreams then here comes reality for years people thought they were immortal but damn reality again!😅
In my final year of school in South Africa (1973), a schoolfriend brought his (very wealthy) dad's wristwatch to school. It was a Hamilton and cost around $3000 (about $13,000 in today's money).
PC magazine had a story on this watch:
"In 1972, Hamilton introduced the world's first commercial electronic digital wristwatch. It retailed for the pricey sum of $2,100, which amounts to over $12,000 today. However, by the end of the 1970s, digital watches would regularly retail for under $10 a piece. In the 1980s, they could be found in cereal boxes as cheap giveaways"
Cost curves...
yet an apple phone goes up and up and up in price. now a total rip off
Amusingly, the precise opposite has happened with Rolex watches, they used to be relatively expensive but readily available, now they’re extremely expensive and completely unavailable!
@@dougm659but now they are falling fast after those that many that collected them in huge numbers are being caught up with by the law - changing ‘easy money’ into watches was popular
You’re looking at luxury brands who are interested in scooping up the extra money that people in that set have.
In the 80s, mobile phones were thousand+ dollars. Now the mobile phone is so cheap it’s often given away with a year long mobile contract. Smartphones are super cheap and they too can be given away. And those phones have similar capabilities as the iPhones at a fraction of the cost.
Tony is speaking about commoditization. Brands like Apple, Rolex, Mercedes, etc. are going to do all they can to avoid becoming commodities as the profit margins are small.
if he bought a rolex, result will be different. A man bought a rolex watch for 350 USD in the 1970's, he sold it couple years ago for 1.2 million USD.
Possibly your best and most important video released on UA-cam. This was excellent. Thank you very much for the content you create.
Glad you enjoyed it!
The key is distribution. For example, the Pacific DC Intertie (Path 65) sends high voltage between the Columbia River and Los Angeles, a distance of 1,142 miles. In the summer the Columbia River runs high and generates excess power that goes south to support air conditioning. In the winter LA extra capacity flows north to support heating. The systems complement each other.
Sucking a bit right now in southern California! And it's SUNNY!
For wind too...a study showed decades ago that wind power taken from a 1000 mile radius would be as reliable as a coal power plant. Weather systems are only so big.
Bingo! Same goes for Alberta and BC... BC Hydro could easily supplement and replace lots of dirty-ish baseload power in Alberta.... I say ish because we're turning off our last coal plant in a few months with a replacement gas turbine project build in its stead however 40% of all of Canada's CO2 emissions come from the tarsands near Fort Mac and that still has a disproportionate impact on our numbers... And they are still trying to expand capacity of that project several fold which would undo all the good from converting coal plants to gas.. Never mind the "temporary" pause on new wind and solar which was done to prop up the oil industry who backed our idiotic premier...
Th distance is incredible line voltage drop/losses are too great the energy company knows this but since th make their money off peaker plants they refuse to add storage….. tytyty Mr Elon
@sparkysho-ze7nm not too great when its at 500kV DC, also allows network parameter agumentation.
Tony Seba is the man. Anyone who bemoans his work, they're uninformed or a shill for the various industries that are ripe for disruption.
Great coverage Viking!
The more I listen to the arguments of EV detractors the more I am convinced of its future. Most arguments against EVs are based on facts that are 10 years old and never really true. They are definatley not looking into the future.
Their arguments are subliminally political, not logical or scientific
Y>ou are absolutely correct! The EV detractors (as well as the renewable energy ones) are coming back with arguments, which might have been right 10 years ago, but are now long obsolete! To counter them, I always start by asking them how much actual experience they have (with EVs), vs things they just heard. It does not work ALL the time, but it is still a pretty effective question!
It’s all about the 10X improvements when they happen. Things are just suddenly different, permanently.
That’s been my experience for 10 years. :)
“It’s not years that make you old, it’s holding on to old ideas that makes you old “ - Sandy Munro
Thank you Sam for highlighting Tony Seba. Tony is an extraordinary visionary.
These wealthy and intelligent sheikhs understand the future and are now pivoting towards BEVs and renewable energies.
I first followed Tony Seba in 2006. He helped me to understand and plan my financial future. In the years after, I started to invest in Tesla and BTC. I retired at 58 in 2021, thanks to these investments and real estate holdings. Knowledge is power, ignorance is slavery.
Collectively Tony & whoever he is working with are brilliant! , I would be surprised if much of what he’s predicting fails to happen.
Great content. I've also been watching Tony Sebe ever since. Made me a Solar guy and founded a solar installation company.
Thank you for bringing us this video and explaining it with real examples.
Have been paying attention and enjoying Tony Seba's knowledge sharing about change and disruption for more than a decade. What he explains is not complicated and is backed by research, historic and economic, of industry and how it has and, as he predicts, will impact us going forward. All of this has been repeated over and over again as he continually shows. Some people get it, most don't. They see the world as linear, when in regards to disruption, it is exponential, follows a typical S curve, and happens over a short period of time, a few years, rather than decades as most think it will. Have been profiting from his predictions for more than a decade. Thanks Prof. Seba.
I've been saying for a long time that the next disruption will be energy... energy production and energy consumption. We just saw a communication disruption... energy is next. Tony is right.
and the centralization of power creation that we have now will also disappear.
@@pucky900 Hi, a previous video was about Australia's average solar install now being 10KW.
So combine this with a house battery or a car with bidirectional charging and you are done.
The cybertruck is may be your 132kwh home battery!
Take care M.
Yeah, until interest rates come down a bit , solar company’s will fight each other for selling the same products. Also, oil prices been coming down as well lately. Which should slow the green economy down as big trucks will still be purchased ticket items .
@@nickgrace5363 lol no they wont, plus oil is being artificially inflated rn. if you follow whats going on in the middle east youll know why
@@nickgrace5363 Big trucks are not the driver for the fossil economy. Its energy. Not a few hundred thousand vehicles. They are totally insignificant.
Beautiful 😊
Just note that he wrote and talked about these predictions a while ago. But it's brilliant to give this lecture to the oil barrons 😂
We still have problems, like countries and organizations trying to stop the transformation (the new EU regulations against Chinese EVs, reduced EVs incentives worldwide, wars by the OPEC cartel...).
@danielmadar9938 Just because of the dark forces trying to halt the transition to renewable energy and transportation - and mass (social and financial) media colluding, these exploding videos on UA-cam, X etc. are so important. There have to be more presentations in front of deciders, propagators and public.
We are using more oil than ever, you'd be dead in hours in a world without Exxon.
@@brilanto it isnt renewable if it keeps mining, that sa con right there
There needs to be regulations against Chinese EVs.
@@schmangusschmangus8628 why? are you racist, do they have squinty headlights?
I found Tony in 2012 when I started studying electric cars and then bought one in 2014
This is life changing for the good information. Thanks for sharing!
Thank you so much for this viewing of the crystal ball. This is exactly the type of content we need to focus investment strategies and gird our loins for massive change. Wow!
Sam, I wish I was younger. The vision of the future is plain to see. Thank you for this gem of a video..
Viking, one of your very best videos to date. Thank you
Thank you for covering this. Have been a big Seba fan for a while but have not followed him recently. I hope that talk he gave is on UA-cam. It's nice to have a reason for optimism when so much of the world is so dark right now! Keep up the good work.
Wow, Sam! Thank you so much for the overview of Toni Seba! Nice work on the video clips.
GREAT CONTENT!!!
This will all come true!
It's only a matter of time!
I'm in the process of building a solar system for my house on Maui. To accommodate for even our very reasonable winter here I have to add 50% more solar panels to be off-grid. That means in the summer, I will generate a huge surplus. Being off grid, there's no place to put it except in AC and hot tubs I guess. Super power isn't inevitability with any properly designed solar system. The further you live from the equator, the greater the seasonal variation and the greater the percentage of superpower. Our local power company sells power starting at 42 cents per kilowatt hour. My whole system will be running me under $0.16 per kilowatt hour with 43 KWH of battery. The revolution is inevitable and it will be driven purely by economics.
I am having a second Powar wall two installed having run with the first one for just over five years. That will be 27 kWh of usable storage. Here in the UK even if the Sun is not shinng I can charge off peak for around £.15 per kw hour and sell during the peak for £.50, per kw hour. I should be able to sell around 15 kWh a day minimum with a “profit” of £5.25 a day - £36.75 a week or £1,911 a year. My new power wall worst case is paid for excluding any solar within 3.5 years then it’s pure profit same as the other one. I don’t know what people don’t see it’s money for old rope as we say….
@@ouethojlkjn so nowhere near free at all,in fact quite expensive and still damaging to the planet :/
@@PazLeBon Not sure I understand your reply - but at the very least, in the longer term, anything that reduces waste is a good thing no? Monolithic power from stations has transmission loss down power lines for example. Sure, things won't necessarily be entirely free (until maybe Nuclear Fusion is cracked) but to just continue burning stuff is no solution either.
@@ouethojlkjn i Im trying to be logical. We need to mine the batteries (pretty much), we will need probably 4 times as many electric pylons across the lands and nobody buys second hand electrical items such as a p.c which these are kinda becoming. On top of that we are to somehow dispose of a billion combustion engines etc. If I keep my current 20 year old car and Do my less than average miles per year my carbon footprint is x. If I dispose of my car, buy an new EV and become part of the new 'super grid' then my footprint will be 100 times bigger. So for me its way more efficient and less damaging to the planet, i cant see that any other way. I think if we'd waited ten years we would have hydrogen power which is instantly a smallerfootprint and can use the current grid (gas stations.. which with ev alo need to be 4 times bigger and more expensive than we have for gas/petrol currently)It ALL feels foolish
@@ouethojlkjn congratulations on being able to sell your power back. Unfortunately with the Monopoly we have here on Maui, they've put in a ton of legislative roadblocks to selling your power back to the grid. And if they do buy it back it's at 20% of market price. They also put restrictions on the size of your system how you can use it how much batteries you can have. It's legislated protectionism here. It's not worth it to even deal with them, but it would be a nice option. Due to public utility commission rules, I'm not even allowed to sell excess power to my neighbors if I wanted to. Utterly disgusting!
Tony has been right on the money in most respects for a looong time.
The “haters” are simply proving how dumb they are.
"Cost curves are like gravity" will always win. Solar, wind, and batteries remain the winner.
Solar is taking over, wind is doing very well, battery storage is being deployed everywhere, and EVs are taking over. Prices have come down significantly for each of these 3, and this will continue.
Autonomy will be so insane for economic growth that it is nuts to even try to understand.
1,000,000x in 10 years is insane. It wouldn't shock me though. 4x cheaper than running an ICE car is nuts.
Precision Fermentation is big as well.
Thank you for covering this, Electric Viking! I can't overstate how insane this is.
Insanity is believing Tony Seba. He gets some general trends right, but as Sam noted, changes occur in S-curves. Tony forgets that materials and labor will NEVER be free, and are not infinite in supply. He doesn't realize that he is a socialist.
Labour is about to drop with the mass production and deployment of AI-driven robots (Tesla's Optimus will be the gorilla in this space). Yes materials are also needed but with mining being done by robots they too will become much cheaper.
For sure,@@tomturnbull3723.
Labor costs are about to fall significantly given humanoids. We've seen nothing yet.
Think back 10 years ago, You would have said the same as you said now . . . . "he probably is to optimistic". I think he is right.
It's not even close to as sunny where I am as in Australia. My observations of my own system PV are that in full overcast days my energy generation is about 1/6 of normal. Four days seems to be the upper limit of major rain with close to zero production, therefore I've designed my battery storage to be over 4 days. It has worked quite well, so I think Tony is spot on. Obviously there are many places that have extreme climates and this would not hold, but as a percentage of the whole, those cases are quite small. Long distance transmission lines would be needed. Hybrid and multi-junction PV cells will boost that 1/6 to quite a bit more production, so I don't see any issues with his outlook.
Australia has enough solar to completely transform its economy, taking its raw mineral ores and allowing it to potentially process them into steel and other metals or even manufactured goods!
I am based in Belgium and our solar setup has 220 solar pannels... it has been raining and cloudy for 50 days non stop now.... we achieve maybe 20 or 30% of the needed PV output.. I am happy to see the 21st of December pass... days will get longer but it will take until mid March to get back to full production...
Remote areas that have such poor weather (or sunlight) have much lower populations and most can be connected to a grid to locations that can easily compensate. Moreover, with SuperPower (over production during the summer) it would be easy and cheap to produce hydrogen (or other forms of energy storage like synthetic fuels) to power those locations while keeping them carbon neutral.
As I understand it, his predictions are about grid scale storage, not home users trying to survive a period of low generation on their own.
@@ranig2848 you can't store hydrogen though, not long term, and moving it around in tanks is not viable. It is good for making ammonia though so excess energy can be dumped into that, to use as fertiliser. If his food predictions are correct though, not sure if that requires ammonia or not. :D
Tony Seba is accurate! In thirty five years as an engineer in Silicon Valley I watched the synergy of advancing silicon chips and software and sensors cause a generational change every eighteen months. Now, with AI and sensor autonomy that evolution will accelerate an order of magnitude.
I worked on the first half gigabyte, small refrigerator disk drives, in the seventies, then one the first 60 gigabyte five and a quarter in the eighties and then the first gigabyte five and a quarter disk drives. in the nineties.
I now have a terabyte three and a half drive in my nine year old computer.
! ust watched a UA-cam about a Chinese CD that now holds petabytes and can store over a million movies on one small five and a quarter disk.
The proper term is asymptotic synergy. Technology does not advance linearly, which is the way most of us think, but asymptotically, instead of plus it advances in multipliers.
With Tesla bots ( and hundreds of other brands) powered by wind and solar, doing the hard work, with autonomous service transportation, with chemically produced food, etc.
Super abundance will be available. Only persons with the capability to be Scientists will actually be required to work. Even most of engineering can soon be automated.
The hardest problem that humanity faces will be how to keep the ninety-nine point nine percent of the worlds population, that is not scientists, busy and feeling productive, so that they don't starting fighting each other out of boredom.
Tony is not making extreme predictions. He's basically applying S-curve adoption to upcoming technologies. And by doing so, he's getting much much closer to reality than all the other IEA-like predictions.
As a lifetime analyst, I see Tony Seba as a high quality source. Numbers, curves and trends.
And how about his precision fermentation prediction for 2025? Its based on a curve so do you know if he is right for 2024 (now)?
Just gets the script a little ahead of time - that's all.
Loved this long form video on Tony Seba, definitely deserving of it. Thank you Viking, Merry Christmas, sir ☺️🎄
Glad you enjoyed it!
I live off-grid. I can confirm, by personal experience that he is correct about solar. My neighbor is massively over paneled, even on very cloudy days his panels produce more than he needs. I have more power than I need most of the time and I estimate that I produce about 110% of the power I use. I don't have a battery bank able to handle prolonged cloudy days, as I have recently experienced, so I do need a backup generator.
I've been living offgrid for about 30 years. Over time the falling cost of panels and batteries means I use my generator less and less. As prices continue to fall I should reach a point within five or so years where my generator will get stored in the back of the garage 'just in case' something in my system breaks and I don't have the spare parts at hand.
That is what makes grid-tied so fantastic, you put all the excess in the grid and draw out when you need to. I lived offgrid with solar and lead acid batteries from 1990-2010 and wasted all the power produced after 10 am for most of the year. Battery storage was far too expensive and so was just the cost to bring in a line to connect to the grid (30,000$ C) The power company is working the wrong end of power generation and shutting down local power production. Thankfully things are changing as slow as it is.🤔
Those living off the grid will soon have even more surplus PV power (because it is so cheap) and divert that power to thermal uses such as domestic hot water and space heat, but also divert the excess to charging their EVs. When power is in short supply, they will drive the EV to a public charger and connect to a grid that may be importing electricity from hundreds of miles away, either from clean sources or from hydrocarbon sources in the near term. EVs will enable more people to live off the grid.
@@peteinwisconsin2496
As someone who lives off the grid, the time when one needs space heating is also the time of year when one has the lowest solar input.
As solar has become so inexpensive we should start seeing a lot more locally produced electricity and a continued decline in fossil fuel use. With batter prices also dropping rapidly the days of oil, gas, and coal are limited.
Solar and winter in Wisconsin often plays out as extended overcast but not very cold or bitter cold and bright sunshine. As solar has gotten cheaper, off-gridders are installing more solar but no more battery capacity. As GeorgeMead's neighbor found, at some level of excess PV, very little battery backup is needed.
What to do with the excess? PV for DHW and PV for space heat comes to mind on those cold, sunny days. I have 4.2 kW dedicated to space heat and 3.2kW dedicated to DHW, and diverting to space heat in the basement when the hot water reaches its maximum. My 7.5kW is a LOT of heat for this 1,650 ft2 house.
Once EVs move beyond the overpriced, novelty stage, I will buy one and charge it with the 4.2kW array, DC-direct using the boost-mode DC-DC converter I built. If I was off-grid, and I am NOT, the EV would be charged in town during the winter and even used to bring home tens of kWh during extended overcast. No backup generator needed.
Tony Seba reminds me of the young Albert Einstein. Both of them simply looked at the data and applied mathematical reasoning to available data. Einstein said, "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." There is no ego in Tony Seba's analysis either, just straightforward reasoning and clear vision. Both Seba and Einstein were ridiculed and mocked. Tony deserves a Nobel Prize. So did Einstein, but Einstein did not receive a Nobel for his relativity theories--they were too controversial. His Nobel was for solving an earlier problem in spectroscopy. (one that led to basic quantum mechanical ideas, BTW)
Excellent presentation. I will add this to the New Progressive Alliance documentation showing sustainable energy is possible.
Thanks!
Awesome perspective, thanks for sharing this great info!
Tony Seba is a very intelligent person, it's great that you're helping to amplify his message
There is definitely the potential for what he said to occur. It's a bigger shift than horse and buggy to automobiles. With Sodium ion technology, lower priced solar, and more advanced AI this can manifest rapidly.
If solar costs have dropped then why have the solar estimates I have been given for the last 10 years not changed at all? The solar companies must be keeping more and more profits I assume. They also can't fit anywhere near enough panels on my roof to put a dent in my electricity needs is another problem. They also don't allow for my desire to install extra so I can raise my electric heat up higher than my current 45 degrees. By law they can't install more than last years electric usage. Lots of problems.
This is an interesting point, I’m a renter who would save money with solar where I live, but capital costs for installation are too high, if I installed my self and just paid for parts it would be better in terms of pay off time of just a few years, but regulations. I think there could be a much larger do it yourself solar installation craze , which would get a lot of people over the company install costs.
Tony Seba is one of my hero's. Also have some books. I 100% believe what's he is saying. He's not the idiots, the others are. I think about Motorola, Kodak, Blackberry, Nokia, ...
Last 3 phones have been Motorola...
Kodak just released new camera...
Nokia 15th best selling phone in US.
Blackberry got kiled by US Gov as it cannot spy on BB users and also protect krApple monopoly 😊
Brilliant episode. Thank you!
Wow 🤯 your best video recently Sam. Seeing the changes that have occurred and are occurring, I would say he’s right 😊
It is wild to watch companies like Nokia and Xerox in the past, and Toyota and GM today, sit on their laurels. The flip phone and the Prius had their day, and now Toyota is going all in on hydrogen cars, the Betamax of automotive technology.
And the hydrogen technology will bankrupt Toyota :-))
Betamax wasn't worse for the world than VHS. Hydrogen is worse than EV (worse than gasoline too).
@@5353Jumper Spot on the comparison is not the same.
@@5353Jumperwhy is hydrogen worse than gasoline? Just curious. I know it's more inefficiencient but it's still green. It leaks which can also cause problems but that's all I know honestly...
@@CheeseLovingGuy I don't think the OP was referring to the value of the underlying tech, as Betamax was technically superior to VHS, rather the popularity of the platform. Humourously, the biggest driver of VHS acceptance was p*rn, since Sony didn't want people putting it on Beta cartridges and they controlled the tech, the p*rn producers just made VHS, and that's what people bought, so VHS won.
In this case, hydrogen is technically stupid, because it's difficult to make & to store, causes more pollution and is an inefficient storage mechanism. All losers.
🤗THANKS SAM,IF OIL SHEIKS ARE LISTENING 👂 THEN WE SHOULD AS WELL 😅👍💚💚💚
Somebody should make a 10' statue of Tony, he is a great man proving the deniers wrong.
Wonderful. This S-curve prediction is absolutely sound. Imagine, in 6 years we will no longer be killing ourselves on oil that poisens our air.
Hi Sam, thanks for introducing me to Tony Seba, I watched this video and it was a real eye opener.
Doing a great job Sam! Keep it up buddy!
Thanks a ton!
Seba was right about 'Superpower'. As they say the proof of the pudding is in the eating: California's conquest of the 'duck curve' and forward progress in renewable energy, especially integration of battery storage, is a successful real world test of Seba's ideas.
Brilliant guy, I remember him 6 years ago telling us we would all have batteries in our homes by 2019 we would have self driving ubers taking us to work, shopping etc, so we wouldn't need cars. Yes a great wind bag, who by the nature of predicting the future, is sure to get at least somethings right.
Another excellent report from Sam. Thanks
Glad you enjoyed it
I would not bet against Tony! Fabulous video - thanks!
Love this video, makes me feel very positive for the future of humanity.
Hi Sam, greetings from the U.K. I really like Tony’s analysis, I went EV in 2019 and don’t regret it. However, I do have some reservations about this transition… Cars purchases are heavily influenced by emotions, and are often a projection of a persons ego to the world. Also many people are not able to charge at home, public charging is not evolving fast enough at present. I think these factors will slow adoption of EVs. We should also not underestimate the massive pushback we will be (and are) seeing from the fossil fuel industry and legacy auto who are absolutely desperate to slow this transition down.
There’s no question if these things are possible. The main impediment to global abundance and peace is greed.
Greedy persons are not satisfied with superabundance,they have to push down someone else in order to feel superior.
The abundance is coming. The question is what other resources that people desire can they control.
Part of the challenge is for people to control their desires. Average people today live better than the kings of 300 years ago - but they have much higher expectations.
The only questions I have is about precision fermentation and the transition away from industrial agriculture. It's needed and offers real hope for global prosperity, but will it happen? The book Brighter by Adam Dorr, Tony's colleague at Rethinkx, outlines Tony's predictions in more detail. Energy and auto are on track. I wonder about the fleet of ICE vehicles. I wonder about the existing stock of homes heated and cooled by natural gas. I've been a Tony Seba nut since 2011. When the future looked darkest I went to Tony for a dose of optimism. That kept me working on clean energy.
Precision fermentation works. We've been consuming beer and other fermented foods/drinks for hundreds of years. Vat grown milk and meat are real. They are just too expensive at the moment but costs fall as production scales up.
Heat pumps are now good enough and low cost enough that they are replacing gas and oil heating. For many people, when the gas furnace or AC wears out and needs replacing it will make most sense to put in a heat pump. Especially as wind and solar drive the cost of electricity lower. I'm currently replacing a worn out gas boiler with a heat pump. Just makes financial sense.
Kind of like synthetic vitamins. Body finds it very difficult to absorb them. I fear it will work out like the mRNA vaccines. Not very efficacious and some horrendous side effects for large portions of the population. I'm sure the government and Bill Gates will happily push it on us to test whether it has any serious side effects.
Let's get rid of cattle and treat us like cattle.
I am absolutly shure he is 100% right.
Thanks Sam, awesome presentation. Not listening to Tony Seba will prove very foolish.
Love it; speaking to a bunch of sheiks and explaining how their days as oil magnates are almost done.
@TankUni Hopefully he doesn't talk in Russia...
As I said, a brave man!
50 percent of oil goes to making plastics, not transportation, heating or power. Even with all this solar, oil is still rising as peeps use moar electricity. Sheiks are sittin' pretty. And add another 5 years to Seba's 2030 estimate.
@@mikemotorbike4283 _50 percent of oil goes to making plastics_
Got a source for that claim? Because as far as I can find, 12-15% of the yearly global oil supply is used to create plastic.
But perhaps you were thinking of 50% of the projected growth in demand for oil?
I've been following Tony Ceba for a while and this dude is usually right about these things.
Great segment!
One of your best videos yet, well done
The important part in the battery price chart is that before 2030 car batteries will be half the price they are now.
Now we need a new disruptor company to turn Tesla’s home battery division into Nokia by manufacturing an affordable home storage battery.
@@freeheeler09
As other companies enter the market prices, including Tesla's, will decrease. And look for Tesla prices to decrease even without competition as they perfect the LFP 4680 cell. Tesla tends to hold with about 20% profit margins on products. As it becomes cheaper and cheaper for them to produce batteries they will be able to drop prices and make higher overall profits via higher volume sales.
Yet a Kia pack costs $60 GRAND!
@@freeheeler09I suspect Tesla will be able to apply Wright’s Law before anyone else!
And Americans will need to afford to buy a home instead of unreliability to charge their falling price batteries cost. Think about this . Millions of old apartment buildings with no EV charging. That’s millions of un motivated potential EV customers due to inconvenience to charge .
Thanks Sam and merry Christmas to all.
Happy holidays!
best wishes to your family, Sam...
I remember a wise man said the Stone Age did not disappear for the lack of stones , he was Ahmed Zaki Yamani politician who served as Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources under four Saudi monarchs from 1962 to 1986
Tony is the very opposite of paradigm paralysis. He is able to see what is probable not what exists now or what would be favorable to your business or investments. As far as Tony being "the smartest person on the planet" no. He himself said you don't have to be a genius to figure this stuff out. You just have to be objective.
Being objective might even be more rare than genius, haha.
@@tysonn4736 Like common sense is a super power now.
@@frankcoffey anyone over 40 is a genius to the younger ones by default
I’ve been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?.
Swinging Tesla by the fiscal quarters; be patient and buy low, then sell either side of earnings and do it again next quarter when it tanks.
3x Direxion is volatile and dangerous but if you watch it like a sheepdog you can turn some profits
Obviously I gave up on long term investments after Covid destroyed my stocks.
I will advice you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you I think that way your assets are more secure.
I’d recommend viola patterson, her profit is great even when there’s a dip
you dont need to be shocked haha because i'm also a huge beneficiary of her
Thought provoking video Sam. Change is constant.
I wish Tony Seba (and You!) is right! Sound incredible (can't believe it myself!) and great!!! Since I'm driving my BYD Seal (14.12.23) --- the world looks better to me! My roof is producing damn cheap energy, Seal is transporting me in comfort and with pleasure --- it might be, Tony Seba is right? Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Sam ............. Adam from Adelaide. All the best!
The cost curve of Li-ion batteries can be used as a predictor of the cost curve of any new battery tech. So even though many of the new battery techs aren't viable today, I would still like to hear about them. Because they could be viable in the years to come. Thanks for the news about them!
"Because they could be viable in the years to come" They will all be viable for their specific use cases.
5:40 This graph perfectly illustrates what I've been telling people who want to install solar for years. If you have enough panels (which are super cheap) then you only need enough battery capacity (which is much more expensive) to last for one night (though I recommend 2 nights just as a failsafe) since you will be producing energy even when it's raining.
It really depends on where you are. One February due to weather, I had practically no solar. One week was covered by ice, very unusual for us.
But cloudy days impact
Or, you need one Cybertruck in the driveway, which is able to power the house for several days if need be.
@@Alarix246 Yip, there are already many EVs that offer V2H and V2L. This is definitely the future.
@@tireddad6541 Yeah if the panels are covered then they will obviously not function properly. They would have been fine if the ice was removed though...
Fantastic as always Sam, Happy Christmas to you and yours mate
Same to you!
Tony is so obviously right. I will buy a model Y as soon as it costs the same amount as a used Camry.
Model 3 does when cost of ownership is taken into account.
@@turningpoint4238 I have to agree, But they still have a long way to drop before I will buy one. First adopters always pay a high price.
All this is possible but power is difficult to relinquish. I hope we can see all of this come true.
Heh. You said "power."
Sam, good post. One big stumbling block is that home and small businesses owners need better, less expensive batteries with more energy storage! Tesla Powerwalls and their current competitors are like first generation flip phones. Yes, they useful in their limited way, but they are too expensive and don’t store much energy. Small scale solar and wind power generation will skyrocket once decent, affordable batteries are developed! The installed price for Tesla Powerwalls is still over $1,000 per kWh. Stare Someone needs to develop a better, cheaper home storage battery and turn Tesla’s home battery division into Nokia and Prius.
Better and cheaper batteries exist already. See Signature Solar.
Good post.
Also all those old eV batteries repurposed.
Smart man, I will be following him !
Excellent video. Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it!
The disruption will be massive. Consider the fact that you do not need to transport sunlight and wind as you do fossil fuels. That means a huge reduction in the Supertanker fleet among many other changes like Battery Electric Locomotives…
That is what they said in 1960, no need for nuclear plants as solar would power the world in five years, they have repeated the same lie every year, we have never used as much coal or polluted as much.
Only the French have clean energy.
Brilliant point.
Right, you'll only need high voltage transmission lines in everyone's backyard.
Whatever Tony Seba is, he’s a brave man, standing in front of a bunch of Saudis and telling them that essentially their bread and butter is doomed!
They aren’t stupid, they are investing in solar and wind, most of Lucid Motors is owned by Saudis.
And not to mention Ceer Motors (joint venture with BMW and Foxconn) which will be the VW of Arabia within the next 5 years.. Mark my words...@@shepherdsknoll
Who just opened a Lucid Motors factory in Jeddah a few weeks back... CKD for now but will be shifting to FULL assembly soon...@@shepherdsknoll
beautifully narrated Sam !
you deserve more subscribers
What a great speach !!!
On the positive side, I do agree we're heading for super abundance so on that we agree.
Or your food centrally controlled. Control food, control people.
@@nitehawk9270 Nothing about those predictions requires central control of food. As always in human history, we stand on the edge of a precipice. There’s the potential for a nightmare future and there’s the potential for a paradise. Just keep fighting for the paradise.
I have no doubt this disruption is coming, and cannot be stopped. It's good to keep in mind that transitions like this always have intended and unintended consequences. There will be winners and losers. This historically leads to wealth gaps and conflict. Those oil sheiks are concerned for a good reason. The economic model they've used to keep the populace content will begin to unravel in 15 to 20 years if not sooner. This isn't news to them though, they've been trying to diversify their assets for decades but now there's a sense of urgency and impending doom if they don't speed up the transition. Not just their jobs but their very lives may depend on it.
One nice side effect of the move to renewables is no one will ever have to care about what happens in the middle east, ever again. Because every country will be energy independent.
Love this! Thanks amigo
Glad you like it!
Thanks Sam
I wonder if Seba has dialled in to his timeline/equations the depths at which the fossil fuel industries will go to stop this from happening. I’d imagine a huge proportion of the people in that room were wondering how they could slow this all down. Here in the uk we’ve seen huge amounts of inaccurate reporting on EV’s, fire risk etc, all nonsense but people with only a passing interest take it as fact. Also, although electricity has never been cheaper to produce it’s currently never been more expensive to buy. I wonder who’s behind that?
Exactly. The power elite with its armamentarium of politicians and media, already at work, cannot let this happen. Or is he right that convergent 10X change is unstoppable?
It can't be stopped. That's their problem. Adapt or die. Luckily oil is used in hundreds of products, and airplanes are a different story as they need it more than vehicles do.
Exactly. As I said above. Where's the dividend to the ordinary person, in all of this? Price determines everything. Power prices per KW have gone up, not down. Several slides basically call for the end of New Zealand as a western democracy. 25% of GDP is milk production and milk derivatives. Beef, lamb make up another significant proportion. Large corporations plan on putting N.Z out of business, that's just peachy. The peasants are getting restless in the U.K, The Netherlands and Germany. I say we need to bring back capitalism not kill it. Large corporates are leaning in too far and its starting look a lot like the tail is wagging this dog.
Merry Christmas Sam an may you and your family have a very happy new year
Same to you!
I don't know of any conflicts or wars that were fought over sunshine. Oil is a different story.
Well - then imagine a future where private companies are handling public transport and cut off poor and problematic neighborhoods and only concentrate on rich customers. All the others will be left high and dry.
Today, the third day in a row, electric energy is free in the Netherlands. Free super power due to North Sea wind power. The Dutch ambition is to build 10 times more wind power.
How about that 6 month wait time for healthcare? Hmmm..
Free? The install was over a billion dollars of YOUR TAX DOLLARS! You paid DEARLY for that "freee" power, fool!
Says who? You?@@dousiastailfeather9454
@@dousiastailfeather9454 Hahaha, you're funny
He is not funny: he is one Luddite@@CrownRider
This gives me hope that humanity won't destroy itself.
Father Time is undefeated but so is Mother Nature.
This minority group of people who cannot live in accordance with nature are killing themselves just like every other biological system that is in conflict with its environment. The earth isn’t goin anywhere and neither are the people on it. It’s just been upside down for about the last 2,000 years but even that is changing.
@!15 : 05 2 cents per watt NOT KILLOWATT Gudday Mr Sam super stoked video well done 👍
glad I'll be around to see it. those oil barons should be thinking about what next for them.
War could set his schedule way back. Lets hope not. Even severe sun activity or a nuclear bomb generated electromagnetic pulse could send us back to the 1800's. If your a planner though this is a guy to pay close attention to. Thanks for sharing. Blessings.
There was War during the last time we had so much convergent disruption. Exponential Disruption and costs curves are not impeded by war(s).
Another Carrington Event will be a megadisaster costing trillions and would give life to the fossil fuel industry for many years to come. Let's pray that we never see that happen again!