2024 Election Decided By Polling Data Averages | Donald Trump vs Joe Biden Electoral Map
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- Опубліковано 1 чер 2024
- Link to sources used in this video:
yapms.com/app/usa/presidentia...
edition.cnn.com/election/2022...
edition.cnn.com/election/2020...
www.nytimes.com/elections/201...
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
www.nytimes.com/2024/03/08/us...
0:00 Trump vs Biden on Ukraine
5:07 Polling Averages In Each State
For some reason the audio glitches and sounds robotic in the 10th and 11th minutes. I would've edited it out had I known but the rest of the video sounded normal so it makes no sense. I believe something similar happened in 1 other video so I'll fix the recording software when I get the time, just a heads up so you don't get frightened 👍
Even though we can now hopefully agree that Krinky wasn't that substantial, you're still one of my top ten sorces of information. And I love you for still providing me with that ❤
Thanks for your work!!
I be looking forward to you live-streaming the actual election night man
Ooh I made to 10. Keep up the great work.
538 had disastrous predictions in the primaries, sometimes 20 points wrong. He got nothing right.
I'm not measuring based on 538's pundit projections, it's based on their compilation of polling for other sources
Biden's state of the union speech sounded like he thinks it's World War Two.
He sounded like an angry old man sitting on his porch yelling GET OFF MY LAWN!
Hate of the union speech
Largest and most deadly war in Europe since World War Two. Hundreds of thousands dead and multiples more wounded. Cities completely destroyed. Downplay it all you want but Putin and his circle (Medvedev) wants a return of the Soviet Union. They don't think many Eastern European countries have a right to exist.
Russia and Ukraine are hardly Europe geographically not to mention culturally and historically.
It was a bad look when he insulted the Supreme Court, to their faces, while they sat in the front row. I also couldn't believe how many times he brought up "my predecessor", but refused to say the guy's name.
Michigan is key to Trump's victory. Wisconsin and Philadelphia are in contest, and can fall either way. But Michigan suffices.
Well that was different! Trump may be his own man to some limited extent about foreign policy but not if he hires people like John Bolton.
We believe Donald Trump is the best President in the world, we American want America great again and 2024 Trump !!!❤
2020 election, GA vote count anomaly, PA vote count anomaly, WI vote count anomaly, MI vote count anomaly, AZ vote count anomaly. no way Trump can win MN and MI with the current governor and state AG there, u can mark them blue. The McCain wing of GOP will rather give AZ to Biden than Trump. FL is solid red, used to be a battle ground because this woman Brenda Snipes, the election supervisor of Miami area. When she was in that position, FL could not count votes by the deadline, had trucks unloading at the back door of the precincts at 2am. pretty much the precursor of what happened in GA and MI in 2020. When Desantis removed her, FL started to be able to count votes on time with no funny biz and just like that no longer a battle ground state.
Ronna "Mittens" McDaniels was a disaster. Good riddance she's on her way out.
Using election fraud, to predict election fraud...love it.
The people who COUNTED ballots were for Biden, not too much the people who actually VOTED.
Way too early polls. The campaign for general election hasn't even started yet. If Biden/Democrats are smart they will make some common sense changes to border security and they will lean heavily into Trump's Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade abortion rights. That's ultimately what resulted in the extremely poor showing by Republicans in the mid term elections 1.5 years ago. The female vote particularly female independents can be swayed if Democrats lean into it.
Polls don't matter. Elections don't matter. What matters is how many ballots you can manufacture and stuff into ballot boxes a couple of weeks before and after election day.
There were dozens of lawsuits about this, why didn't single one stand in front of a judge, where lying carries harsh penalties, and make the claim there?
It isn't done that way. The way its done is you hire people to create pre-filled mail-in ballots for people, get the people to sign them and then submit the ballots for them. Its perfectly legal to do that. The only thing the voter has to do is sign the ballot. The paid worker does everything else.
Early voting helps in that prior to the election its known exactly how many ballots need to be generated in this way to accomplish the intended result.
Voting has changed from something individuals had to do themselves into often something similar to getting people to sign petitions.
@@Jim-Tuner So what's the problem? People voting for the guy you don't like? It still boils down to the individual choosing to vote a certain way, which is very different from ballot stuffing.
Or are you just again voting being easy and accessible to everyone? Why would you be against the ability for someone to cast their vote?
@@LordofTheFallen The problem is that paying people to gather votes using pre-filled ballots where the voter's only contribution is a signiture is a perversion of democracy. One as I have previously said is completely legal.
The rest of what you have said are childish strawman arguments.
@@Jim-Tuner Explain how it is a perversion to democracy. Are both sides not able to do this? Are people forced to sign a ballot against their will?
It just sounds like it makes voting easier. Making voting easier is not a perversion to democracy.
If you're right what does this mean for Ukraine
The Democrats just need one corrupt urban center in a couple of swing states. They will win through voter fraud, that they fervently enable. Ballot harvesting, mail-in votes being taken and mailed in by other people, bad actors harvesting fraudulent votes from nursing homes, illegal aliens voting in blue states that enable it. Dead people still on voter rolls somehow voting. The media machine will narrow the prediction to be 50/50 at election time and then crooked Joe will miraculously win by a large amount.
Biden's blown American prestige and credibility for at least a generation
By all the information that's currently out, sounds like we started this war. Even NY Times sheds light on CIA bases in Ukraine. Then we destroyed the pipeline. The big key is we have made record profits for defense industry. All while Americans suffer, are crime rates and borders are horrid.
The US sends old stuff to Ukraine and pays Americans to manufacture new stuff. Jobs for Americans sounds like a good thing.
So ALL the information out ... that's all of it ... States the the US started the Ukraine war ... what ?
@@rockitrockit8517 2014 coup, and 5 billion dollars to political rivals leading up to that. Violation of 1992 promise, violation of Minsk admitted to by English and French. Pushing NATO to Russian borders. 2015 establishing CIA bases in Ukraine etc
@rockitrockit8517 really, it's like we all forgot CIAs' tole after 911. I remember in Afghanistan when the contractors came to town gladly adding up the sales. No matter what previous foes decided in order to avoid war we found a way to attack somehow regardless. Sadam Hussain, Momar Kadafi, and now Putin.
@@freedomdoc9278what a crock o crap
Agreed. Zelensky has until 20th Jan 12:01 2025 to beat Putin, otherwise Zelensky needs to ensure he has a nice hide-hole (better than Saddam Hussain's) to hide.
This is the critical battle that will dictate the Ukraine war. Without US/EU funding, Kyiv will not be able to pay its 500,000 police force which enforces things like Ukraine's press-gangs mobilization law.
In which case, sadly I predict Ukraine will dissolve into a bloody civil war between the hard nationalists (helped by those 500,000 internal police troops) and the peace party.
Dumb prediction.
I sincerely wish I could agree with you.@@user-ow1bn6qv8q
"I'm not scared of you mother%¤"#ers" - Putin
The polls for the primaries were WAY OFF. They all overestimated Trump.
Yeah he was overestimated in early primary states by several percentage points but when taking into account the margins by which he won it I wouldn't call it way off, we're talking about 2%-8% off at most.
@@ThetiThe polls sucked big-time. 538 just kicked Rasmussen off their list, which was a Republican poll, so that was probably part of the major screw up. Are you American? And yet, a Putin shill? Shame.
@karengray8708 538 gave them a B rating which is pretty good given their stated conservative bias. I've also seen them include Data for Progress which is a left-wing organization.
@@Theti They just excluded them. Why do you think? Probably because they were skewing toward Trump or Trump's candidates, and they lost like hell. Trump has zero chance, but if the polls keep showing Trump ahead, that will be better for Biden. If Biden were ahead, some people might get lazy and stay home.
This is exactly why Biden is a 1 term POTUS... Americans are tired of foreign wars. Not another penny for Ukraine!
Say whatever you want, both Democrats and Republicans are broken.
Biden I do not think will get the people out to vote this time that he was able to before. A lot of the democratic vote before was more anti-Trump than pro Biden but now Biden has proven that he is probably about as big a piece of shit as Trump. That means you are probably overly optimistic on how well Biden will do. He is at an astoundingly low approval rating of 38%, and a lot of people that voted for asshole Biden will not be so wanting to vote for this incompetent again. I see Trump being just as good at getting people to the poll as he was in 2020. Biden and the democrats will lose by a landslide. The American citizens have not had a particularly effective president since Eisenhower, and all the recent presidential candidates have sucked.
The polls in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 were all wrong. When the elections happen, the democrats get more than the polls predict.
It really depends on the state and election. Polling data right before the election is largely within the margin of error, so even if they get the call wrong for who wins the election, when that happens the margins are usually small enough that the other candidate winning would still be within said margin of error. This is what happened in 2016 when polls in specific states underestimated Trump, but yeah in 2022 there were some notable errors that favored GOP candidates.
When they take a poll the respondents only get called once . Polls can't measure ballot harvesting, voting in two states, or illegal votes. People like to shout no "wide spread" fraud, but nobody puts a number or definition on "wide spread". The true definition is always whatever it takes!
@sixty9harleyPittsburghPAP it is almost impossible to cheat. The cheater has to know the name of a person who is registered on the voter rolls, know that person has not voted, AND KNOW HOW TO FORGE THE SIGNATURE. This is why it is usually someone voting in their dead parent's name. They usually find a handful per state.
It doesn’t matter. They’re just going to stuff the ballot boxes again.
Possible scenario - If Trump wins, then he will tell 1) Hey, Russia, I want you to stop the war. And russia-ukraine will stop the war. 2) Hey Israel, I want you to stop war. And Israel will stop the war. 3) Hey Houthi, stop attacking ships and it happens. 4) Hey Dear Kim un, lets me friend again and deescalate, and it happens.
Why exactly would any of these groups stop? Like, you think that not a single other person has thought of asking nicely?
I also think if the election is rigged, there will be more unrest, maybe even civil war
Yo
This Australian would like Kennedy. Second Trump/ Ramaswamy.. Biden has no chance it will be embarrassing way to old ! America needs to stop interference in other countries.
Пока бюллетени по почте не придут, будут примерно такие результаты, а как придут, половина красных штатов сразу станут синими. 100-120 летним Ходячим мертвецам Байдена даже из могил не надо вставать, что-бы за него проголосовать проголосовать :) Я помню прошлые выборы смотрел, вся карта красная была после подсчета 90%, потом утром просыпаюсь вся карта синяя, думаю что нахер такое происходит?, а там на графиках резкие синие всплески по 10000 голосов за Байдена, и тогда я понял что такое настоящая демократия.
Trump will lose due to abortion alone. Since Dobbs, democrats win every race because of abortion.
Educated suburban women will sacrifice the economy, borders and foreign policy so long as they believe the candidate will support the sacrament of convenience over personal responsibility.
Not only that, they want it through depraved activist judges on the Supreme Court usurping the powers of Congress by legislating from the bench. Inventing rights into the Constitution by creatively interpreting an amendment. Tyranny. Those educated suburban women are an argument for barring women from voting at all.@@justasimpleguy7211
@@justasimpleguy7211 Educated women support Ukraine, minimum wage increases, child tax credit, cap on insulin, rural internet access, EV charging stations, taxing the rich bastards, and Joe Biden.
@@justasimpleguy7211 Sacrifice economy and foreign policy? Inflation is largely under control, unemployment is low and stock market is hitting all time highs. This will be enough to assuage any economic worries. I'm not saying we have the strongest economy of all time but it's certainly not a strong talking point for Trump. He usually uses the stock market as his measuring stick and its ripping the past year so that won't work. Foreign policy? Most Americans support democracy and freedom and think the budget for sending old weapons to help Ukraine defend itself and restocking our arsenal with upgraded weapons is money well spent. Trump's base may not be he is guaranteed their vote already. Terminating an unwanted pregnancy IS personal responsibility lol.
@@user-ow1bn6qv8q And when it all comes crashing down - and it will with the current trajectory - people like you will sit there saying "How did that happen?!?!?".
And no, inflation is not under control, and furthermore it's cumulative so that 17% is now baked in and isn't going away. Real wages are down 3% under Bidenomics. That is people have 3% less purchasing power than before Bidenomics and that isn't going away either without deflation (think Great Depression) of at least a decade of rising wages combined with low inflation. And then we will be back to having an equivalent purchasing power as before Biden took office. We've lost a good decade of rising living standards.
But economic illiterates don't understand... economics... and will vote for the demented fool that caused the problems.
Oh, and then there's the millions upon millions of illegal criminal aliens the fool invited in.
But that's all okay so long as you and your kind can abort at will, right? 🙂
His base has collapsed. It's over. The democrats will own both houses by a street.
The UK Tory party are about to almost cease to exist. It's statistically unlikely they will get zero seats but beyond that it's difficult to say. They are not predicted to be the next opposition.
Meanwhile, you've culminated. There's a big push coming still. You have to close this out now in the next six months. You haven't made any worthwhile strategic progress, you can't even kick us out of robotyne or keep the few miles of line you've taken in the east.
Ukraine are now dismantling russian industrial infrastructure piece by piece.
Putain will call effectively a general mobilisation the week after this farcical election. It won't fix the problem. You will be facing a wall of accurate artillery using shells that work, a small airforce you daren't even face, and the drone armada you never had a prayer in competing with. The Ukrainian army are the leading army on the planet now, and they won't stop. They are defined by this. You had to destroy them now and be able to go for Odessa which is everything, you need the whole coastline.
This is utter fantasy, you can't even keep control of your side of the river.
You've got a tough year keeping this show going fella.
👆🤡