NEW CALEDONIA | A New Insurgency?
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- Опубліковано 16 чер 2024
- In May 2024, New Caledonia, a French territory in the South Pacific, experienced widespread rioting linked to its long-standing push for independence. The French government responded by deploying thousands of police reinforcements and President Emmanuel Macron made an emergency visit to address the escalating tensions. The recent violence, which left six dead and many wounded, has sparked concerns about a potential return to an armed insurgency campaign for independence. The disturbances highlight ongoing issues of colonialism, self-determination, and geopolitical strategy. New Caledonia, which has a significant indigenous Melanesian Kanak population, remains a strategic foothold for France in the Pacific amidst growing regional influences.
The conflict's roots lie in historical and socio-economic disparities, exacerbated by the discovery of nickel deposits and subsequent immigration waves that altered the territory's demographic balance. The pro-independence movement, which gained momentum in the 1980s, has been marked by boycotted referendums and periodic violence. France’s recent decision to extend voting rights to long-term residents, perceived as a tactic to dilute pro-independence votes, ignited the latest unrest. While Macron has pledged to maintain a security presence and engage in dialogue, the deep-seated resentment and demands for independence persist, raising questions about New Caledonia's future and the broader implications for French colonial rule.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:57 New Caledonia and Colonialism in the 21st Century
01:53 New Caledonia: Location and Population
03:09 A Short History of New Caledonia
04:39 New Caledonia Emerging Independence Movement, 1960-1998
06:17 The Noumea Accord and the Independence Referendums
08:50 The 2024 Rioting in New Caledonia
10:43 Is New Caledonia Facing a New Insurgency?
12:29 Did Azerbaijan Incite the Rioting!?
13:35 France’s New Problem in New Caledonia?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
President of France
www.elysee.fr/en/
Matignon-Oudinot Accords | 1988
www.mncparis.fr/uploads/accor...
Noumea Accord | 1998documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ge...
AUKUS | UN Department of Defense
www.defense.gov/Spotlights/AU...
Baku Initiative Group | X/Twitter
/ bakuinitiative
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#NewCaledonia #France #Pacific
I can't believe I've lived to see the day when Azerbaijan trolled France...
As an Azerbaijani, me neither
It's glorious, isn't it?
Türkiye and Azerbaycan offically support free new caledonia and corsica +free guyana .......we are in 2024 and this terrorist(colonizer) country still have colonies in the world
Turkey and France often clash because of their influence in various countries. Azerbaijan is the brother and ally of Turkey, which speaks Turkish and has many agreements with Turkey. Azerbaijan is supported by Turkey and both countries dislike each other because Armenian Azerbaijani conflict.
😂
France never de-colonized , they were kicked out brutally. The Brits started decolonizations by creating autonomous dominions , like Hong Kong could self governed and could definitely be a country of its own , a fully developed democratic government and legal system on its own , while France do the opposite, from somewhat self governed colonies under colonial ministries , France created the French Union , Abolish colonial ministry, absorb the colonies into French sovereign territories directedly controlled and administered by Paris , which ultimately completely remove any chances of decolonizations or independences . in my country of Vietnam , the French packed every single things onto trucks , cargo and shipped them back to Paris, from even dirty torn out rags to broken furniture, machineries... literally anything and everything they could carry on the run after nearly a decade of brutal wars. On that note , the American war were very brutal , but the Americans at least have the honor and decency to leave everything behind when they go.
It is absolutely fascinating how the different European colonial powers handled colonialism and decolonisation. It is often said that ten French tried to make Frenchmen, while the British had no pretensions. The Belgians probably fall at the bottom of the pile, by almost any measure. When they departed the Congo in 1960 they left fewer than a dozen graduates amongst the native Congolese!
@@JamesKerLindsay I think the west, especially the Americans , need to force the hand and put pressure on the French , just like they pressured Britain to give up colonies . The greatest failure of the Americans in Vietnam -American war were not Johnson Nixon or Kennedy ,they completely failed Vietnam in 1945 when they supported , entirely funded the French war against all Vietnamese people and even participated in that war . France is not a good ally , people often forgot that for more than 4 years , Vichy France were an ally of Germany and Japan, Japan did not invade Vietnam , but were invited by axis ally Vichy France over. If the Americans and the west keep helping France , they will be the very first one to get kicked out after France just like Vietnam , and to some certain extent, the African countries recently. If the Americans could ally with the tyrannical monarchy French and Spanish empires to fight for their freedom against the constitutional bill of rights Britain , then China , Russia or any other enemies of the west 's helps would be greatly appreciated.
As a matter of fact, British decolonization began very unwillingly when they were forced out of most of Ireland despite a resolute and brutal military effort to hold onto it.
(This comment is not aimed at excusing French colonialism in any way whatsoever!)
New Caledonia has been managed largely the british way with lot of autonomy, a traditional legal system for kanaks. Very far from the universalism that was imposed to Martinique
@@michaelg3855 That isn't true per se. Decolonisation was something the Brits had been doing even before ww2, just that the post ww2 kicked things into overdrive for both sides. A lot of current superstates like India and Malaysia were formed from separate colonies and combined into one as a means for making economically viable post British states
Whenever a referendum’s turnout is reduced to 44% due to a boycott, the issue is _never_ put to rest.
Very good point!
yeah... assuming it was the only referendum... but it wasnt. they lost the previous two... dont forget that. the boycott was the admission, that they will lose the third too. so instead of accepting defeat, they boycotted it, to muddy the water and declare the whole process that led up to the third referendum as null and void... but it isnt. two referenda with a turnout of 85+% were against independence.. doesnt that count for something, even if you ignore the third?
from an objective point of view, france kept its word, the kanaks havent. they do understand that they wont get a democratic majority for independence, therefore they are trying it by force ... again.
@@MrNukedawhales From an objective point of view, the issue is far from resolved, regardless of which side, if any, is in the right.
One may pretend otherwise at their own peril.
@@MrNukedawhalesdemocracy might as well be swapped by dictatorship if it always ends up in colonisation. What's the difference ?
@@rathersane i didnt say the issue is resolved. i said that france "delivered what it promised", the kanaks are sore losers... i never said its solved.
The recent rioting in New Caledonia has raised some interesting questions about colonialism in the 21st Century. But should we really think of the territory as a colony? France would argue otherwise. And will the recent rioting mark the start of a more sustained campaign to end French rule, especially is supported by outside forces? And is Azerbaijan really behind it all!? (Yes, you heard that right: Azerbaijan!) As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments.
Thanks for the video and greetings from Germany!
Since we are at the topic of island seperatism in France: Do you have plans to cover the situation of Corsica aswell? I myself really have only basic understanding of the situation, but it seems that in the last few years political forces for greater autonomy and even independence in Corsica have gained wider support on the island. Would a New Caledonia-style unrest be possible there awell or are the issues too different to compare? Another talking point when covering France is its still prevalent language chauvinism that is rejected by most EU countries and even is forbidden for countries aspiring to join the union. I'd like to hear your opinion about these topics, since they fundamentally ask how the French state views itself. Language seems to be the preferred unifier of french nationality, more so than in other countries.
8:30 A 97% vote is always a great sign of a free democracy. 😂
Melanesian Society is very corrupt and the Chinese are able to exploit this. Older Papuans always say they regret getting independence from Australia so early (1975) if at all. Nepotism rules supreme in Melanesian society. Having a third party like a colonial power can be a good thing in these situations. If France left, the kanaks would lose their country try to china forever.
@@ceejfletcher I fear that as well. I don't think France is the prob here... I read 25% of N Caledonia's GDP consisted of French subsidies a few years ago. If that all stops, I think poverty & inequality will rise, since the money was aimed at addressing precisely this issue...
Settler colonization is still happening to very this day. And what we are seeing is ethnic exchange
France has just experienced a geopolitical butterfly effect: they were friendly with Armenia, and so Azerbaijan went in and hit them where it could. I really doubt the Azeris "created" the riots, though - the tensions were already high, Azerbaijan merely poured some more gasoline on the fire.
New Caledonia is a headache no matter how you look at it. Most of the Kanaks want independence, but they are only a third of the population. The European third wants to stay with France. And the last third is, I assume, split on the matter. No matter how you look at it, you can't satisfy even a good half of the island's population without angering the other.
Great work as always, Professor. Summarising complex issues so well in under 15 minutes is a skill I wish I would have. Hopefully by the time I start having my first gray hairs I will possess it!
Thank you so much. 🙏🏻🙂 I completely agree on all your points. The Azerbaijan angle is fascinating. I find hybrid conflicts so interesting. The ingenuity we are now seeing is quite impressive, and rather worrying. I think you’re right. It isn’t starting something. But it is exacerbating existing issues. This is right out of the hybrid threats playbook. And you’re spot on about the deadlock between the two sides and the position of the third group as the deciding factor. But it does seem that France is now playing a rather dirty game to dilute the vote in its favour. Anyway, thanks for a wonderfully analytical summary of my summary! The talent is clearly there. 😀
Dont forget they made a conference in Istanbul, leaded by Azerbaijan and of course open support from Türkiye, Corsica,and New Caledonian delegates were there. Aim to disturb France, a greedy but incompetent figure that provokes, try to provoke Armenia.
The island belongs to the Kanaks though. Non-natives shouldn't be allowed to vote and if independence is achieved they should be kindly asked to kick rocks.
@@CB-ke7eq they have been living there for hundreds of years by now. They have every right to Vote and that non natives shouldnt BE able to Vote IS Just racist Policy. Imagine the outrage If you applied this Logic to europe.
@@CB-ke7eqSure. Just like Somali and Syrian migrants in Sweden shouldn’t be allowed to vote, right?
France supported Armenia in the Karabag war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is why Azerbaijan has invited some people from New Caledonia government to Baku and pledged support for their independence. The riots might have ended for now, but this is not the end of it. As long as France supports Armenia, Azerbaijan and others will find a way to make life uncomfortable for France.
They claim New Caledonia has 20-30% of the world's nickel reserves. Nickel is a vital material for things like stainless steel and batteries. Quite the economic prize, and with such a tiny population.
Correct. It's also y France has made voting easier 4new residents.
It's part of their neo-colonialism mindset 🤮
Kanak have been given full management of 2 out of 3 largest mines of the island. With help of France, they brought in international mining groups (non French) to pour in more investment. As they are mismanaged and loosing money, they survive with subsidies from France. The international mining groups want to disvest and focus on main competitor in nickel extraction: Indonesia.
the nickel sector has never made a dime go check it up. Vale Glencore all had a try and broke their teeth
It also has a unique biodiversity (that an understatement), but the french mining industry is endangering all of it.
@@K0sm Kanak are first requestor in exploiting the nickel and France has among the most advanced regulations on bio diversity. What is your benchmark Fidji? Indonesia?
Unfortunately, for small low-capital island nations such as this, "independence" would undoubtedly soon morph into "Chinese target".
Funny how you label pacific nations "Chinese targets". All pacific nations want to trade with China. We've come to the point where normal trade and investing relations with China are demonised. And here you even hint at maintaining colonial rule because independence would mean trade and investment with the region's biggest economy. Double standards to the core
@SiRasputin "All"? More fools they.
I have to admit, Azerbaijan creating a pro-separatist organisation for a French quasi-colony was not on my geopolitical bingo list. Great video, working on one on this issue as well!
You left out the part about how the referendums did not include all residents of the territory. The franchise was heavily restricted to favor independence.
This was exactly what I was wondering. I think it wouldn't make sense to allow French citizens who migrated to New Caledonia 3 years ago to vote. Apparently in order to vote you needed to reside in New Caledonia since before 1994. This seems like a really reasonable requirement.
@@achmedaan Residency for 30 years? Most developed countries have pathways to citizenship that are ten years or less, which seems to be a perfectly ample time to earn a say in where you live. Complaints about immigration in developed countries generally aren't at all to do with the choice of this timescale.
Every coloniser say the same thing
Yeah, why not let french people vote for Canadian and US elections, they colonized it as well...
Allowing colonizers to vote in a referendum for independence does not make sense
It's essential to mention that the electorate for the three recent independence referenda (2018, 2020 and 2021) were restricted to French nationals who had settled in New Caledonia in 1994 or earlier, thereby excluding a significant proportion of New Caledonians. This frozen electorate arrangement favouring independence was to last until 2022, not indefinitely. Moreover, independence would succeed if 50% + 1 of the restricted electorate voted in favour at ANY of the three referenda. In these circumstances, I find it unacceptable to accuse France of modern-day colonialism. Do critics truly believe France should disregard the will of the people expressed in the five referenda (1958, 1987, 2018, 2020 and 2021)? They could more appropriately accuse France of violating democratic principles by freezing the electorate and excluding part of the population that has lived there for decades and contributed to the archipelago's development. Moreover, only Kanak residents reaching the age of majority were automatically registered to vote whereas their non-Kanak counterparts had to take action to register themselves to participate in the referenda. Even the proposed 10 years is twice the time period normally required for alien residents to be able to naturalize in France (typically 5 years reduced to 2 years for most native francophones).
I am not French and have never lived in France so this topic is foreign to me. Please feel free to correct any mistakes. Thank you.
It is a mischaracterization to call New Caledonia ‘a colony without self-determination’ - It is today a ‘collectivity’ represented as a region of France, like any other region of France, with its own members of parliament. It has a degree of local administrative devolution and it has voted in multiple referenda to remain in France, and even the indigenous people know they are better off economically with the massive subsides they receive from France and have much greater GDP per capital and services than their neighbors in the region. There does indeed remain a numerical minority of indigenous people, usually at the low end of the socioeconomic scale, who want full independence; there is nothing unique about this in principle: you can find the same in very many countries across the so called ‘New World’ - from Australia (Torres Strait Islanders) to the US (Hawaiian indigenous people), Canada and many other large nations. As correctly pointed out at the end, external agents, Azerbaijan, are furious at France’s support for Armenia in that conflict and are doing all they can to generate this recent flare-up in New Calendonia as pay-back.
In this comment, you read about classical French chauvinism and how to be superior to everyone else, that is, French fascism! The French are one of the biggest massacre colonies in history. Even the Nazis did not carry out the massacres they committed in Africa, North Africa, Oceania, Syria, occupied Turkey and Indochina! But for some reason the French, for example, accuse the Turks of genocide, oh what a contradiction!!!!
Watching from New Zealand, another former settler colony. I see parallels between the Kanaks and Maori, who were demographically and politically marginalised by British settlers during the 19th and 20th centuries. Kanaks fear such a fate. Being a Chinese Kiwi, I can also identify with migrant populations who came to New Caledonia after 1998 and cannot vote due to the Noumea Accords. Tricky balancing the rights of Kanaks with those of the migrant populations.
Nice to hear from a perspective that is not directly white v non-white.😊😊
funny. According to the U.N. or namely to the "United Nations list of non-self-governing territories", the 4 remaining colonial powers are the U.K., U.S.A., France and new zealand.
Please do not mess with Azerbaijan Republic and NZ will be A-OK. I live in Canada and like all new Canadians with Chinese roots. You guys are a brain.
Noumea Agreements of 1998 were already planning a 10 year residency voting rule. It is French president Chirac who froze the voting group in 2007. Some people are not able to vote but have been living on the island for 26 years. Put also in perspective that Kanak are not the first Melanesian settlers of the island but rather arrived in significant numbers 150 years before European. So quick question how long before settlers families arrived on the island in 1853 to 1900 are considered by UN locals in their own right? They might not be the prime settlers of the island but they justify a long presence here. Longer than a lot of ruling communities in middle east, Africa and South America.
Great video, as always. If I may add a contribution from my (mainland) French point of view, framing the electoral law change as just a manipulation to dilute the pro-independence vote is only telling half of the story. Currently, only people who have resided continuously in New Caledonia for the past 26 years can vote in provincial elections and for independence referendums. While this is justified by the willingness to give more weight to the Kanaks and other people who have a generational connexion to the territory, it is also a democratic anomaly to have such a large portion of the population, some of them having established in New Caledonia more than a decade ago, deprived of voting rights. Seeing it in this light, the government's reform makes more sense as a middle ground between the current system and full voting rights for everyone (I am personally against it and support the Kanaky independence movement, but I don't think it is fair to not mention this point of view). It is a very interesting territory and there are lots of things to be said about it, including for instance the colonial mindset and racism of the whites living there (much more so than the government), but this is a great summary!
Thanks so much. It is really great to get this perspective. I sincerely appreciate it. Excellent point about allowing people who have lived there for quite some time to have a say in local affairs. This is how it should be, and you're right; there is a good democratic justification for the changes from that perspective. But I can also accept that there's also an extremely delicate demographic situation that any such electoral changes will inevitably alter in a way that will allow more outsiders to take part in any independence vote. I haven't looked into whether this has already happened, but this is the sort of thing that a body like the Venice Commission could be ideal to assess and come up with formal proposals.
@@JamesKerLindsayWell some people might argue that about Scotland or Quebec or even the whole of the UK when it comes to any future vote on joining the EU. Whenever some demographics vote different than another, one might argue "differential franchissement" is an important thing to take into account
@@FOLIPE allowing settlers to vote for NC independence is probably like maybe lets have every single person in the UK , especially the English vote for .... Scottish and Irish independences . This is between Kanaks and the French , not between French and French , Kanaks are not French , and they never wanted to be, they were forced to.
France still owns 3 Pacific Territories. The 2 well known and mentioned is both French Polynesia and New Caledonia but the third 1 is Wallis & Futuna Island Group which is located between Fiji and Samoa.
The video is based on the "United Nations list of non-self-governing territories" and Wallis and Futuna is not on this list, but New Caledonia is. The video does a poor job explaining this, but the list is a bit odd and not easy to understand. E.g. French Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Réunion are not on the list anymore because they are considered a fully integrated part of France now, and thus not considered colonies by the UN. On the other hand, New Caledonia and French Polynesia, have been reinstated to this list by a UN vote because they are neither fully integrated nor fully autonomous. I haven't found any explicit reason why Wallis and Futuna is not on the list, perhaps it's just a matter of the UN never putting it to the vote.
Live and let live.. Everyone living in NC should get the right to vote. Don't submit to gang violence.
I like the way u explain back from history to date so keep Ur good work.
Thanks, James. Best summary of the situation I've seen by far.
PS. Enjoyed your book!
How does Australia feel about this? Australia’s Indigenous peoples were also demographically replaced. Australia must be concerned because an independent New Caledonia will be a huge win for China, which made a security agreement with Solomon Islands and is continuing to increase its presence across the Pacific islands.
Strange... why the mind of western people always thinks of China, not the real victim which is the Kanak, who have been colonized for very long time.
The Australian government is supportive of France retaining its stake in the Pacific being seen as a counter weight to Chinese influence. On the other hand, Australia has to be careful to acknowledge the concerns of Pacific island states, particularly the Melanesian ones, that have obvious sympathies for the Kanak people. Likewise, indigenous Australians are also inclined to support New Caledonian independence. The crisis in New Caledonia is not good news for Australia or the West more generally. China and Russia are obviously happy about this distraction.
See the France/Australia strategic partnership originally signed in 2013 which has always benefited France more than Australia.
And New Zealand.
@@guyh9992 and the deal Australia signed with the States and the UK in AUKUS also benefited them more than Australia. We make poor strategic decisions
Do note that Capitain James Cook was not Scottish he was born in Yorkshire.
Correct he named the islands after Scotland because they reminded him of the Scottish mountains.
He had Scottish ancestry.
@@someguy3766 the logic of which, one would have to say, cannot be faulted....
care factor nil
@@mr.mysteriousspyman4016 Irrelevant.
I mean if they voted to accept the new constitution and laws they accepted the rules that allowed more people to live there, and if even after being allowed to restrict the right to vote in their favor, they still lost three times, can they really complain about the results and demand an even more rigged voting system to guarantee minority rule?
Even if they become independent they'd still have to deal somewhat fairly with the 60% of people there who aren't Kanak and won't start voting like Kanak nationalists after being forced to leave France against their will.
They ether expel everyone, have brazen minority rule in their own ethnostate or split the island if they want their own state now.
Realistically that's their options.
Yes it reminds one of ugly situations where some populations have been disenfranchised due to how they vote
"Even if they become independent they'd still have to deal somewhat fairly with the 60% of people there who aren't Kanak and won't start voting like Kanak nationalists"
That is a way better outcome than being a slave to a country halfway across the world that is also draining their natural resources.
So does that mean we can split france into micro states too?
It's non of your fkin business.
We live in 2024, there's no excuse for colonialism.
@@cs4155a way better outcome for a minority, at the cost of depriving the majority of its basic rhuman rights. Sounds like a very nice system/s
What is the point of three referenda in four years?
The government knew remainders were the majority and the support is not going to change much in 4 years to change the outcome. But, they will be able to say that they gave 3 referendums and use this to stop the independence movement. That's what I think.
Great video, as always. Professor, thanks for the hard work
Thanks for the explanation
Thanks for this, been wondering what was happening here.
Very well done. Thanks, Professor! Once an Armenian French girl came to my college in NYC as an exchange student. This makes me realize the influence of Armenians in France. This anecdote, needless to say, was overgeneralized. But the end of the talk kind of confirms my impression.
One French woman of Armenian descent indicates what exactly?
@@conorreynolds9739 Armenians are rather influential in France and America. Since two Caucasus countries are at war, little wonder Azerbaijan does not like France much.
I read the title as New California.
That would make for a very different video indeed! :-)
The way newsom runs California it wouldn't be far fetched.
That would be an American insurgency
New California Republic!
Fallout 4 ?
Hilarious that Azerbaijan has presented itself as an anti-colonial force by doing only some rhetorical posturing. They even did a mass meeting of various separatists from French territories last year...for...some reason.
I think the colony label is very apt in more ways than one. While autonomous and self-governing in some respects, Kanak is still not as integrated as say, French Guiana. Theories of colonialism also note economic colonialism, and France's extraction of nickel and use of military bases certainly qualify. Thus, it's an unequal relationship that needs to be mitigated.
The latest riots must be due to more systemic reasons than just the voting law, like economic issues. Without that being addressed, New Caledonia will erupt once more.
Yes the voting law seems to just have been the spark the ignited it all. Deep rooted causes, socio economic ones, historical ones. On top of that, the territory has a hard time supporting itself from an economic standpoint ( not many resources, unfortunately many businesses were just burned to the grounded and looted during the latest riotings, which wont help matters ) and from a food production point of view. No matter how you look at it, there's no easy way out of this.
A country where the titular ethnic group did not even reach 2/3 majority 100 years ago and that has annexed and ethnicaly cleansed large swathes of territory that explicitly did not want to become part of it presenting itself as anti-colonial. If that isn't ironic idk what is.
Poor bastards if France does leave
Had dinner with some Kanak activists around 40 years ago. They were keen on a peaceful settlement that would bring a Kanaky that would work for all of the communities. That was not to be. Instead of partnering with the Kanaks to build a durable independence, France was set on further marginalising the Kanaks.
Giving white folks rightfully living there the right to vote is not marginalising the indigenous. It is a basic right and if black/asian/whatever else citizens were not allowed to vote in France, the world would be up in arms.
Crucially it's people who have lived there for 10 years. That's not France bussing in a bunch of people to skew a vote. That's people who have lived there long enough to become naturalised citizens if New Caledonia WAS independent. It's also not just White Europeans being given the vote. It's non Kanak Polynesians, Asian, Black etc.
Exactly, but this is not surprising considering France's colonial track record
They had 3 rounds of votes, boycotted the last one because the knew that it was going to be the last fail. Reality is that kanak independantists must reject these democratic votes to continue to exist, to continue pretending that they are marginalized when they are in fact a privileged group on the island. They are now a minority denying thousands of people the right to vote, their only leverage being that their ancestors where there first, but is it normal that people that lived for 25 years on this island and their child have no right to say anything about politic there? For how long must we consider those people "colonists" when lot of them are born there ?
@@elios4592 if the kanaks are sure to fail, there is no risk organising a new referendum.
From what I have seen of the slums they lives in, the kanak population doesn't seem "priviledged"
Will there be a video on recent ICJ ruling telling Isreal to stop offensive into rafah.
Probably not. I have already covered the main case. While it is a welcome decision, it doesn’t fundamentally change anything at this stage. But I will certainly return to it when there is a major development.
"There aren't any real winners in psychological warfare, but there are victims and there are students." Ren
textbook psychological warfare, or hybrid conflict, we are seeing it in every country around the world these days.
Thanks for in-depth information.😊
nice work prof
France created this themselves and then they claimed Azerbaijan and Turkey support New Caledonian unrest. 🤣
One does not exclude the other, mind you. Plus they didn't claim Turkey played a role in it, as far as I know.
ottomanosman2463 nobody claimed turkey support new caledonian unrest
Very interesting topic and place. A colonised archipelago where extending the right to vote to all residents, generally viewed as a good thing, is counterproductive to national liberation! Both of my sympathies are being pulled at. They may need a more unique, complex political arrangement given France isn’t likely to remove itself and non-Kanaks from the region anytime soon. Thanks for the video!
There is a solution, New Caledonia 🇳🇨 becomes a country.
@@nromkBut that is against the wishes of the locals so it'd be anti democratic
They voted no for independence 4 times (first time in 1988). They know how suicidal it would be to try to live off of unstable nickel prices and tourism, never mind the loss of security. Dignity through independence means nothing if you're just gonna end up like Haiti.
@@TMWThow many years did France milked Haiti to bring to its knees
@@relaxedmind01 1/3rd of New Caledonia GDP is subsidies from France. Kanaks aren't the majority, how would independence work out in your eyes exactly?
Thank you. It is very useful information 👍.
James, great video on an issue that has many facets to examine. And I believe the issue of outside agitation needs to be examined more in depth.
France has this territory and has in all political situations has to create a method to balance many political issues with various coalitions while grounding these concerns in political pragmatism. That is why, as you brought up, the issue of outside agitation is salient. Outside agitation in effect creates an artificial construct, when previously a balancing of political concerns has previously been accomplished. Thanks for the great video.
Racist france, always trying to deflect.
Who would a thought WW3 starts in the Pacific.. oh wait thats literally also what happened last time
Thanks for this video! I had hoped you would cover this this week!
I'm still wondering about the UN list. Do the UN mention what France can do to get New Caledonia off of it or why it's still on there? Are there any differences between these islands and territories like French Guiana or Mayotte?
Great questions! You’re absolutely right. It is a strange situation. All of Britain’s overseas territories are on the list, but not all France’s are. I think it is because it has more completely integrated them into the French state. It’s interesting to note that the US got Alaska and Hawaii off the list by making them states, but also managed to get Puerto Rico off my making it a Commonwealth, although it is regarded by many as a colony in all but name - although many Americans would of course disagree. It is such a fascinating and confusing situation. Perhaps I should try to make a video on all this!
@@JamesKerLindsayYes, more on Puerto Rico specially would be sweet to learn more about them.
The reason is because Mayotte and French Guiana are not dependent territories, but rather, integral parts of the French state.
@@someguy3766 What does this mean in practice? I know they have their own currency in New Caledonia, but do they have fewer rights than the people of Guiana? And French Polynesia is also on the list, even though it's part of the COM.
@@Leiwanderer Nope that's the opposite.
New Caledonia and Polynesia have more autonomy than integrated departments while still having deputies and senators and voting for President of France.
They're on the UN list because there's a significant amount of local politicians who want it, while it's a way less prevalent topic in Guadeloupe, Martinique or French Guiana.
Informative
This is a good analysis.
Another informative video filling in vital gaps left by the news.
He does have that touch.
WOOOOO yeaah New Zealand becoming a colonial power
Tokelau has voted 60% for independence twice but it remains a dependent territory of New Zealand because New Zealand required a 67% majority to let go of its colony.
@@eljanrimsa5843 Well in fairness what kind of economy does tokelau have without NZ? and will it maintain a democracy or go the way of fiji?
New Calidonia liberation would be the best!….
No more colonialized by France!,…
Good job ppl of New Calidonia!👏👍
Thanks for such a concise explanation of the situation very interesting and informative
Thank you so much!
1:11 how do they conclude who is non-self governing? For example why is New Caledonia on the list while Mayotte, Guadeloupe, & Martinique r not?
Mayotte, Guadeloupe and Martinique all voted in referenda to fully integrate with their sovereign power as equal citizens. According to the UN, a non-self-governing territory can be taken off the list if the population self-determines to either 1. fully integrate with the colonial power or another power, 2. enter into free association with the colonial power or another power, 3. independence. While most colonies chose 3., some chose the other options.
@@fredleung616 o ok, I thought New Caledonia votes in French elections tho? Am I wrong about that or is there some other factor that makes them non equal citizens?
@@anthonytitoneThey have senators in the French Senate.
The only undemocratic thing about Senatorial Elections is that a number of New Caledonians can’t vote because they’ve only been there for 30 years.
What makes you think those referendums were not rigged in any way?
These referendums were done in a way that was decided by the Noumea agreement of 1998.
That agreement was signed by French Government, leading pro-Independence figures and leading anti-Independence figures in New Caledonia, and was then approved by referendum (and it got an higher share of the vote in Kanak-majority cities than in Kanak-minority cities).
Rules on who can vote were clear and deemed acceptable by both pro and anti independence sides, all partie had observers and every citizen can witness counting if he or she wishes so.
First two referendums were as valid as that kind of referendum could be.
On the other hand the third one was a complete joke, French Government rejected calls by pro-independence politicians to delay it due to Covid (thus forcing both sides to dial down campaign efforts and messing up with Kanak mourning traditions), which led to a boycott.
And that's because of third referendum being such a joke that pro-independence parties are way less willing to compromise.
Guilt has to be proven first because one is innocent unless one is proven guilty.
Thanks for the video professor! Complicated situation with Azerbaijan’s involvement, but it seems like a calculated risk by France to alienate Azerbaijan with the hope of pulling Armenia away from Russia, an effort that appears to be making some slow progress. I doubt the flare-up in New Caledonia was seeded by Azerbaijan; as you pointed out there is a preexisting history of unrest in the territory. In that regard, with the territory’s future in the French Overseas now secure after the series of referenda, Paris should work on efforts to further satisfy the needs of the Kanak population. There has seemingly been progress made in this regard over the past few decades, but perhaps now is the time for a further commitment.
Thanks as always for providing a solid basis for discussion!
Thanks LocalLt. Yes, France also has a complex relationship with Turkey. To add to all this, there's a large and well-established Armenian community in France. In this sense, Azerbaijan certainly has a lot to be annoyed about. But it still comes as rather a surprise to see it launching a hybrid attack on France in this way. It really does show how the world is changing and how so many issues can be weaponised.
🇮🇱 is behind 🇳🇨
Thanks for the video essay.
Thank you very much!
Professor. As always, I commend your historical videos.
I just wanted to mention that around 15 years ago. I had the privilege and the honour of delving deeply into the history of New Caledonia and had lead to uncovering some disturbing injustices and intentional suppressions of historical events by France. Much like how Britain had colonised Australia in the 1800s by transferring large amounts of petty criminals from Britain to Australia.
I had discovered that the French had also conducted a similar initiative up until 1950/60s by relocating hundreds of thousands of Algerian/Arab anti-colonial activists from North Africa to New Caledonia to deliberately suppress the Algerian people’s resistances to the brutal France colonial rule in North Africa but also had used the deportations from North African to colonise the New Caledonia island to justify a French occupation/rule.
More importantly. I have come to the realisation that every single conflicts and disputes around the world 🌍 today. Stems from a European colonial legacies which is causing continuous conflicts till this today global.
Regards
Colonial countries like Malaya ,
Indonesia , Vietnam and India are all prosperous today. Most of them have been independent for 60- 70 years......corrupt and incompetent government are the
main cause of conflict...See ; Pakistan ..?!
Just imagine if native French in France didn’t let recent settlers vote!
Well the Native French don't give a damn about other native peoples under their rule as we can see in New Caledonia. The world would respect Europe's anti-immigration demands more if not for their hypocrisy in their colonies
How is that remotely logical
@@shafsteryellow He is talking about the mass migration into French of the last 60 years.
You must be French to vote in national elections.
@@mitchyoung93 irrelevant.
Wow! That is superb journalism! That puts things in perspective. There are so many players and agendas. I don't know how the Kanaks are gauging disparity. Sure, they might not get better salaries than their European counterparts, but that's to do more with class than racism and every country's has it. They seem pretty well off compared to other neighbors like East Timor. But then their are successful independent nations in the region like Indonesia. Is independence really worth the gamble? Also, the minimum wage in New Caledonia is higher than that of my country, Japan. Go figure (granted, the cost of living might be higher).
Class disparity can seem racially motivated, especially in this kind of scenario. French advanced technology in mining and refining are used, and naturally, they would want to protect this tech by sending over educated people who earn larger salaries in tow with their education. They could also open a new wave of low labor force immigration by asking if any low education Frenchies want to work New Caledonian at local Kanak wages. I'm sure there will be many who would jump at the opportunity to live the relatively peaceful island life. This could show the locals that it's not about racism, but it'll also take away their jobs. Maybe 5000 such workers. Young men and women who fancy interracial freedoms. A bizarro reverse in immigration norms. Might be interesting to see what happens.
Thanks Prof for you thoughts not only on this subject but also previous. Looking forward I subscribed so I an get notified of your enjoyable informative program. Hope you are not AI ..but if you are you are still doing ok 😂 ... thanks Prof 😊
Just another headache for Macron.
Macron IS the headache
France will have a lot of problems in the future all over the place. If the Azeris lose interest then the Russians will certainly be looking to settle scores over the next few decades and flooding the Kunaks with arms is an easy way to get some payback. We are in for a bumpy ride as we move from the rules based order to what is hopefully a more equitable system based on international law
The Russians are already after New Caledonia now. Azerbaijan is not powerful to influence, but Russia can.
if Russia is scheming, it's unlikely a system based on international law will prevail anywhere
Hey france, looks like you needed Australia now
I love this Channel!!!
Thank you so much! Have a great weekend. 🙂
Hello Prof, would you do a post on what next for Iran after Raisi's sudden departure
Thanks. I probably won’t cover it. It is all a little too speculative at this stage and perhaps too inward looking in terms of domestic politics. I am not sure what I can really usefully add. (And I like to use my videos to tell a bit of a bigger story in terms of international relations.) But I will certainly come back to Iran at another point.
Why not just make New Caledonia an Overseas Department, like French Guiana or Reunion? Then they won't be "non-self-governing" anymore.
That would end the high autonomy that New Caledonia has.
That's probably what is intended in the long term but Kanaks are rioting for a 4th referendum and against a law that would enlarge the electorate college and reduce Kanaks' influence. The truth is this island has been theirs for centuries and they want it back free from colonial occupation.
New Caledonia, is actually part of New Zealand..geologically speaking!
Part of the continent of Zealandia.
Freedom for New Caledonia now
Another important point is Chinese interference. The troll farms are in Anti-France mode now, supporting New Caledonia independence
From where and how? If I am a CCP operative, I will keep quiet. To PRC, separatism is a big no-no. 😁😁
Right, the Chinese are behind the gilet jeune, the retirement reform, the students' protest, the violence in the banlieue...'etc.. and even the French explosive deficit.. without China, France could have dominated the world lol !!
@@tekinfomedi Inside the PRC yes, however, The CCP would be more than happy to encourage separatism abroad. Only the naïve would believe other wise
there seems to be a lot of pro-french trolls too
Nickel was discovered in the 19th century not in the 1960s
The video was talking about deposits discovered in NEW CALEDONIA in the 60s. He didn’t imply that nickel was discovered for the first time then.
The French usually wear out their welcome everywhere they go.
Really? And why is it that it's not happening in the Silicon valley?
And I didn't even start to talk about British villages in France, because people wanted a better life than in the UK.
My guess is, you have your own personal bias on the subject.
When this happens you know it's the former colonial days that come back to haunt you .
Beleive it or not I sympathize with both sides , yes every country or territory should be free and independent if they so wish .
However the last thing that France wants is to grant independence then a few short years down the line New Caledonia suffering something similar to the Haiti effect .
There is a halfway house whereby France could grant gradual independence say over a period of ten years .
This would stop the violence and allow stability to take hold , it could also allow democratic institutions to slowly take power / control of government .
I just get the feeling macron doesn't know how to proceed or that he doesn't really care what happens in distant land .
Whatever happens the first thing macron needs to do is to agree on diplomatic talks regarding the situation immediately .
In 1940 Australia strongly pressured the pro Vichy governor of New Caledonia to resign and sent a cruiser to accompany a Free French replacement.
These days France benefits more from the strategic partnership signed with Australia in 2013 than Australia does. Pacific territories come about 8th in strategic importance for the French who do not have the capability to project power here indefinitely.
With the situation in the Solomons Australia will naturally be concerned about destabilisation elsewhere in our region with much stronger powers than Azerbaijan involved.
You meant this particular flag?
🇳🇨
Indeed. New Caledonia has its own flag.🇳🇨
🇹🇷🇦🇿❤🇳🇨 🥰🥰🥰
As Azerbaijani I'm quite happy that we've introduced the concept of french double standards to France itself. The basic rule is to never do to someone what you wouldn't want done to yourself.
What double standard is that?
You're unhappy that France spoke out against Azerbaijans ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh lol
How is democracy going in your country?
@@ravenmusic6392 Why does the story on your local TV constantly become the basis of your understanding of our conflict with Armenians? When France backed a violent foreign incursion that forcibly uprooted a million of my countrymen and then dismissed everything as a separatist movement inside our nation's internationally recognized borders, I, along with the rest of the country, was obviously unhappy. Please don't try to force your pseudo-democratic foolishness on us; I don't care what controls your presidential election, if you opt to support separatism you might get it on your own backyard or rather 16 thousand km from it.
@ravenmusic6392 there were no ethnic cleansing, even Armenian Prime Minister has mentioned it
thanks
Prof James Ker-Lindsay How is West Papua not on that UN list? Indonesian occupation of the territory is illegitimate!
Free from Colonialism ✌🏻
And democracy, apparently
that’s never gonna happen unfortunately, France steps out, China steps in
@@adamfrisk956Settler mentality
@@blakebauman9654 There is no democracy if its still a colony
Hello! Thank you very much for your analysis! As a foreigner (european, non-french) living in New Caledonia, I can say the situation is highly complex.
I am lucky to work with a good amount of the kanak population and the culture difference is very important. There are many great things to say about the kanaks and others not so great, as in any society. I can understand and share their frustation with the outsiders that came in and took their lands and altered their culture. However, more than a century later, the multiculturality of New Caledonia is undeniable. Kanak, french prisioners and vietnamese are all victims of the same situation.
I do not know what the solution for this situation is and it seems like every colective in this issue stands very far from having a global consensus.
It is sad to see the city burn... Businesses, shops, pharmacies, medical centers... Young kids are told to slash and burn not knowing they are shooting themselves on the foot. It is estimated that more than 2000 jobs have already been destroyied. Also, this past year has not been great for the nickel, value going down with greater competence coming from Indonesia which has a way cheaper labor force and has cut down prices.
We will see what how next weeks go and lets hope for the best...
New Caledonia is so french and they drive on the other side of the road! Not that much english and all the food is expensive but probably the best in all the pacific. The kanaks have always hated the french but they dont hate tourists. Noumea is probably the nicest city in the pacific islands on par with NZ/AU small city but its expensive.
Britain had to return most of their colonies back to the indigenous people. France have not let all of their colonies go. Both countries must complete the job.
Have Australia and New-Zealand been returned back to the indigenous people? What a joke.
according to the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories, most remaining colonies are british
Lets get the elephant in the room out of the way. If it becomes independent it will become another haiti, no industry, no jobs, no hope. Also, i doubt france can actually do anything as it failed to stop the islamist insurgency in mali after 2 years of trying and eventually gave up and handed responsibility to the UN. I am no against independence for countries but do hate it when they cannot properly govern themselves and then when things spiral out of control they then go back to the colonial power crying for help.
Name a single case in which the former colony has gone back to its colonial overlords crying for help.
@@salakastAnguilla became independent and then decided to become British again.
It couldn’t be like Haiti because Haiti was devastated by the plantation system and all the natural disasters. Comoros is a more fitting example. Comoros decided to become independent while Mayotte chose to remain part of France. Now, the people of Comoros are immigrating to Mayotte for a better life and to give their children French citizenships.
@artman12 Anguilla has never wanted independence. It only became independent briefly to separate from St. Kitts and rejoin the UK.
New Caledonia is very different to Haiti! It has a diverse population with no one group in the majority. It has good infrastructure and significant natural resources with a relatively low population density. It has stable and prosperous neighbours (Australia and New Zealand) and France would be unlikely to stop supporting it completely. New Caledonia already has a lot of autonomy and outright independence is a very unlikely outcome.
WOW... thanks Professor.... an extremely useful video, I didn't know how deep this issue is rooted and who is "playing" a key role.
Apropos the last part, do you think that Russia is stirring up trouble for France through Azeri proxy, or do you think that Turkiye would do that? What your opinion about this part?
You mean the Russian apropos or agitprop?
@@moeawale4891 "apropos" means by the way or "regarding" ...
Gee I could make quite a few suggestions for additions to the UN's list of non self governing territories in need of de-colonisation. Who do I write to about this?
The fact that European countries still have colonies is mind boggling.
NC It's not a colony. You are talking about USA there.
@@TLCTLC-cg6cm Yes it is.
@user-un1gx1xs2f then Hawai Puerto Rico and all US island in the Pacific are colonies too. So Yes the fact that US still has colonies which they only use for warmongering and to put their weapons on IS mind boggling.
I'd much rather Iive in New Caledonia and Reunion. If only AUKUS and other warmongers leave us in PEACE.
@user-un1gx1xs2f No, it's an overseas department. With special autonomy status.
What is the idea here? Vote until you get the ”right” outcome?
But what about the fact that France has altered the demographics and changed the franchise to make it more difficult in the past, and is doing it again?
Well they voted in favor of french laws in 1958, and french laws allowed the demographics that got to vote in the three referendums. Sure they seem to regret it now, but is that good enough reason to retroactively ignore their prior decision? Unless they're willing to convince the majority of the island to leave (or die, or convince France to make them leave), they can only be independent and in power like they want if they become a minority-ruled state like Rwanda or former South Africa.
They also agreed with the current rules on who can vote (leaving a significant portion of the population unable to vote) and lost anyway.
I honestly don't see how they can keep a state like that even if France only allowed ethnic kanaks to vote.
I know some non-kanak politicians proposed partition in the past, so I doubt they'd just leave willingly.
@@JamesKerLindsayNot condoning what France did, but didn’t the British/other Europeans do the same thing of changing the demographics of USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand so that the Indigenous people don’t have a way to choose their own destiny?
Worked for the EU.
The only people who should be allowed to vote are the indigenous. Flood the country with foreign nationals, then have a vote 🤔
I just didn't heard and know this place before this weeks crisis, The New Caledonia, I saw Emmanuel Macron visiting here settling out the crisis.
Wait so uk made the discovery of of the island in 1700’s but France took it in the 1850’s, why didn’t the uk just take it before then? Was it really left independent for all that time?
It's not that surprising, there was a fair level of reluctance to get involved by UK in pacific islands unless it had too. There were plenty of European whalers and Missionaries in NZ from 1770s, but UK didn't make a move to establish a formal colony until 1840 and even then it tried to keep presence minimal.
I feel a strange connection here to Russia's oppressive rule on us. Like the French, whenever the Russians go, these countries go to dusk together. But that's not a surprise for me, when I learnt that Russian Tsarist regime modelled themselves after the French regime.
It makes sense because Russian occupy Chenchniya, Crimea and many other central Asia and eastern Europe nationalities and minorities since Tsarist regime empire.
How can a 40% Kanak population rule over 60% Europeans and mixed-bloods ? They cannot and should not. The important things will be to build ties between the Europeans and mixed-bloods to prevent splits there, plus remove the top Kanak activists to a French prison while ensuring those remaining have the carrot of the means to an enjoyable life but are aware of the stick of armed force ready to deal with any activism.
A pro-independence insurgency would be a complete waste for the Kanak people. There are so few of them both in absolute terms and relative to the population of the territory and France is so determined to keep itself intact that they have no chance of success. Instead they should lobby the French government for money and infrastructure
they are 40% of the population
It serves them right, they consistently voted against independence from France.
It serves who right?
France changed the rules. What did they think would happen?
You don’t make an agreement without being expected to follow it. The voting ban was never meant to be a permanent thing. It was entirely dependent on the outcome of the referendums.
You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
Free New Caledonia!
They are completely free! And it is the French constitution which allows precisely this. If there is one day independence in New Caledonia then struggles between communities will begin and above all they will come under the domination of other powers.
They have freedom. They can vote in French elections.
I hope so.
Is the sound ok?
Is there an issue? It sounds OK at my end.
Its not audible on my mobile phone but works fine on my laptop
@@JamesKerLindsay all good here aswell James, went thru the video on 2X speed nothing seems wrong.
@@NanfoodleTB Thanks for letting me know. It seems a few viewers have been havign some issues. I can only assume it is a problem at UA-cam's end. It is still processing for the 4k version, which may be causing some sort of issue.
@@tiburon2080 Thanks so much for letting me know. This is really strange. It seems quite a few viewers are having problems.
I think what made it so messed up is France, unlike other former colonial empires, still regard oversea departments to be part of Metropolitan France, so the entire of French economic data was used. This created a fake sense of development. French Guiana is such an example, it has a bizarrely the highest GDP per/capita in all Latin America, yet its infrastructure doesn't match it - it looks like if we are travelling to Honduras, El Salvador, Paraguay and Bolivia - which are some of the poorest nations in there. Clearly, this happens to New Caledonia as well. This greatly fuels resentment of the Kanak population.
why doesn’t France develop these territories?
@@adamfrisk956 Well, because all of the economic data in France was applied to their overseas territories.
They should fight for independence for how ever long it takes.
Good evening James,
Thanks for the very informative video.
My view as someone from Metropolitan France, I personally feel BBC's subtext of it being a crisis that nobody saw coming is a tad far-fetched, given this so called reform that the Assemblée nationale was debating - the ones opposed to the bill did warn of the consequences of a potential Kanak unrest (La France Insoumise in particular). Again, maybe it is internet algorithm bias considering I was perhaps heavily pushed content based on my own personal biases on domestic politics here.
The unfortunate thing I feel is that there is too much pandering to the far-right (espcially with the voting for European Parliament in around ten days and the far-right being significantly ahead of everyone else), be it about the talk of removing the droit du sol (jus soli) - using Mayotte as the basis or now expanding voting to Europeans in New Caledonia to please certain audience in Metropolitan France, is not a good idea.
On that Azerbaijan allegation, I did listen to the whole speech of Darmanin and I felt most of it was conjecture, again to just highlight an external threat when the mobilisation would have been difficult if this law was not contemplated without consulting people in the island.
Quite concerned about the long term as for now, I do not see any plan coming from Macron's side after the visit - all he has told is for local leaders to 'reach a consensus', whatever it may be.
Anyway, that is my view from here, I have never been to the archipelago (though I would like to someday) nor have I met many Kanaks (barring a few and that too for one-off conversations) and so would not comment on what their sentiments are.
Keep up the good work.
That’s seems very balanced. I maybe wrong but is it not true that the US and China are also deeply involved? I have subscribed, so maybe you can look into that side of things. I live in Australia and NC is closer than Perth.
Active resistance against settler colonialism has become a major theme of the past year.
Also the struggle for equal political participation under the same state
France is only corncerned about the Russians in Ukraine.Their own nastiness does not concern them.
it's not really the same scale either yet. Russia is at the apex of the fascist imperial regim
so it is. the oppressed rise up and rebelled against tyranny.
mr macaron.
Nickel PLUNDER!!!
😳😳😳
As an outsider you have to say that the two earlier referendums were pretty close on a near 80% turnout but that the 2020 referendum on a 44% turnout clearly didn't have a democratic mandate
If the Kanaks had voted then it would probably have been a very close run thing. I can understand why they weren't happy
Even Margaret Thatcher said that referendums were the tool of dictators and despots
If you use a referendum then in order for it to have any democratic legitimacy then you also need to agree the steps that should be taken after the referendum dependent upon the outcome, before the referendum actually takes place
The referendum was boycotted by one side, yes. But the stated reason for the boycott was very dubious. The pandemic wasn't that big of a problem anymore and many elections were held around the world at the time. It seemed to be an attempt by one side which knew it was going to lose, to prevent a settlement, even though they had agreed to this process in 1998. You can't agree to a referendum and then not accept the results when you lose.
@@Leiwanderer the referendum was in Oct 20 which was the highpoint of Covid and no one knew what was going to happen. Vaccines only started rolling out at the end of 2020
@@philjameson292 The referendum that was boycotted was held at the end of 2021, not 2020. Elections were held across the world at the time, including in Japan, the UK, Canada, Argentina, ...
@@LeiwandererI would also add that deciding not to vote or fouling ballot papers is also a valid democratic action
Any vote with less than 50% of the electoral turnout loses any democratic validity
@@Leiwanderer sorry got mixed up with dates . But apparently there was a Covid outbreak on the island in Sept 21 and the referendum was Oct 21
Like I said referendums are not a good tool to decide democratic actions