@Paul Steinwall When you do what he does and do it equally or better, then you can make criticisms. Have you done what he does? I did't thinks so, otherwise you wouldn't be here.
Jeff Gundlach is an intelligent man. He understands the seriousness of our national debt. Politicians (Democrats and Republicans) are nearsighted arrogant self-centered despicable morons intentionally misleading Americans for personal political gain.
Our problem is not taxation. Our problem is spending. When the debt problem comes to a head, politicians are going to call for massive tax increases on the middle class. When the middle class demands massive cuts in social services that's when the violence begins.
Mannnnnn gotta love this MAN 👨 He keeps it real, keeps us informed and he probably doesn’t even realize how much he means to the everyday person. We really could use him in a different role for our country. But I’m sure he wants nothing to do with that!! Can he give the next minutes speech??? Please!! Educate the people Jeff people need to be taught something in order to prepare for their future.... thanks again
This is a brilliant summary of where we are at and the hazards facing us. I've been trying to tell my friends most of this information but to have this summary is fantastic. Even his timeline to total crisis of 2025. Brilliant. Exactly how I feel, with Ocasio Cortez (or someone similar) getting in in 2024....I'm sharing this widely.
check on water, (old fashioned hand pump), food (plenty of land to grow vegetables), guns and ammo. Supply of Silver bars coming soon. Gold could end up being illegal to own if we go back to the gold standard before a collapse, but then again by then who will care? You'll be fighting to survive either way anyways.
A world wide depression, I think Not, more like a world wide meltdown. Get out your weed and a stack of rolling papers, its going to be amusing if you are high enough!
Loans from the Social Security system are not one branch of government funding another branch of the government. The Social Security funds are payments from workers paychecks into what is supposed to be a trust fund. The "excess funds" have been borrowed since the Reagan administration and every administration since to make the annual budget deficit look smaller than it actually is. When current worker contributions are projected to not be sufficient to pay current claims, as is forecast in the next decade, the loans will have to be paid back if benefits are to remain at current levels. But...paying the system back would require either new taxes or more borrowing to pay back the money borrowed. This friends are why rich people like Mr. Gundlach who are not going to have to worry about living on Social Security call for "entitlement" reform.
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 No Moron, it is not Gunlach's fault, what is his fault and all the others that call for "entitlement" reform is the continued narrative that the Social Security system is in crises because of underfunding and not because the Government has borrowed the reserves. And the incorrect statement that borrowing from Social Security is one branch of government borrowing from another and not a theft of the funds allegedly "held in a trust fund." By the way, it is not a scam you twit if the funds had not been taken to cover the deficit. But you go ahead and let the rich people tell you it's a scam so they can continue to take all the money.
The next recession will show it's self later in 2019. However, 2020 is going to be when the shit hits and it is going to be bad. Stay out of debt people.
@@raymamo4606 the evidence is all around. The used car market in the UK has shot past the New Car market. There is a huge amount of debt leveraged upon cars and if a recession hits and people fail their payments then a lot of car manufacturers are going to enjoy a massive amount of default on payment....or in other words, they won't get paid. Honda just announced they are moving out of the UK. There is lots of evidence.
@@raymamo4606 Seriously ? You need proof? The Federal Reserve just announced that 7 million auto loans are 90 days behind. Have you been living under a rock ??
Because interest rates were lowered to almost zero, there weren’t any yields for pension systems and retirees. This people were forced into Realestate and the stock market to seek additional yield. Blow up the stock market blow up the boomer generation. Blow up the stock market blow up capital gains which is 20% of of government income. So, if the stock market crashes the consequences are severe.
They pass laws to pump up their own stock (Nancy pilosi visa IPO) they burn down entire communities to build Pilosi a new winery in Napa w FEMA money.. prob got rid of the bodies shes hiding there and all those houses were burnt to make a deal with solar companies and pg&e.. all those new houses must be built to a new "green" code, ie standard. They killed thousands of people in those fires for their own selfish gain They torched them while they slept, created traps so they couldnt get out. Its war on any one collecting soc. Security. They just killed of people because they have missed spent the money. They are doing it in San Bernadino, trying to get land owners to pay firefighter pensions they drained the accounts on (SBf5) The gov is now bailing out PG&E and GE so there wont be a interruption in business as usual. Dont think they wont go down without a fight. Their comfort and coddled egos are on the line.
@Goomonster To be clear, I'm not saying someone can't make money on it. It's just that it's value is entirely based on people wanting it because they think they can make money on it, and it's got perpetually increasing marginal cost of production built into it. These two things condemns every crypto to eventual implosion, much like a pyramid scheme. But you cam indeed make money along the way as long as you arent in it on the way down.
Smart guy. So recession doesn't occur during half a year. Stock prices going up and down large amounts nervously has been usually a prelude to recession (1973, 2000, 2007). Usually the time period is one year. It is the case?
still waiting for the real crash that 2020 was suppose to give us october 2024, you can hold me to it i dont think im going to have to wait another year we may have that meltdown this month october is often a bad month in history or post election i believe what i been waiting for since 2020 is withing 1-13 months max so were here we shall see
because they are right, when all this debt does come to a head, its not an IF its a WHEN, and WHEN it happens the 2008 crash will look like a minor correction. The economy is maxed out on debt, people will stop spending when they max out their credit cards and we are getting to that point where 90% of the people is over leveraged. They never fixed the system only prolonged it by putting people further into debt! JUST WAIT it will happen
along with the massive student debt problem all those kids that are supposed to stimulate the economy by buying stuff will be stunted, we are in unprecedented territory and not even the fed or government knows what is going to happen, that should scare the shit out of u!
That is the one thing no one seems to recognize. A stagnant economy with poor wage growth and a generation much smaller than the previous having to support the pension obligations of the boomers all retiring within a 10-15 year span. This is peaking in 2019/2020. The pension obligations are unable to be satisfied by existing workforce participants and the wages that they're being paid.
@@nickzivs that's when, in time. confiscation will begin...let's hope for solutions; but yes, the smaller work force will be problematic...fewer goods and service purchases, too - leading to falling Corporate profits and lower S&P, DOW and NDX.
Did I hear this guy correctly? Did Greenspan really say, "If you understood what I said, I wasn't being vague enough?" I NEVER liked him...for THAT Reason! Sounds like he was not only admitting it, but BRAGGING about it! During my senior year in college (1980), I remember thinking, "We need to get a handle on our National Debt." Guess how much it was then...TWO TRILLION DOLLARS! I believe it might be too late to do anything substantive about it. If we decided that we wanted to cut it in half, and to do so we ran a $500 billion per year surplus (I know...yeah right), it would take 22 years to achieve that Objective. I can't imagine our Government running a $5 billion surplus for ONE Year.
And just recently it has been pointed out that US growth is based upon massive wealth growth for the upper 10% and stagnation for the bottom 50%... That is not a strong economy. That is a temporary unsustainable situation.
If companies are so highly leveraged would the prudent option not be to pay down debt with excess profits...?If top executives are paid in share options it would seem the reason they are buying back shares is to inflate their own shares..and who is in a better position to "pump and dump" in time if things go wrong..?
@@cmhardin37 In a world of perfection, the communist dream perhaps where all are equal and not. The trend Gundlach was saying, was a tendency to greater inequality which would match an economy failing its people
I’m not sure China matters anymore. At the end of the business cycle with as much corporate leverage and consumer debt.....things don’t look good. Nice interview Yahoo
How are they going to save ? The QE , globally 12 trillion into the system went into real estate stocks not wages Inflated property prices etc debt burden Most consumers simply surviving not thriving
how can the fed really start easing when they haven't even raised enough to prepare for the next recession? there's like no ammo unless they go to NIRP. they have been saying the economy is strong and it's all roses. yellen is like this economy can't sink.
They should simply change the tax code and require them to report buy-backs to stockholders as a taxable event the same as dividends. Now, buy-backs have a tax advantage. After the change, buy-backs would actually be discouraged because the stockholder would have to pay taxes on a gain they didn't get in cash. Kind of like a limited-liability stockholder or partner has to pay taxes on undistributed gain. This would end buy-backs real quick.
Gov't spending is choking this country as technology makes markets become more price perfect, squeezing everyone's margin toward zero . This is stuff that gov't just can't stand to air in public. You go, Jeff!
In Economics we always are dealing with supply and demand theory. When there is a stock panic, investors rush to Treasuries because they want safety. This should cause a big increase in demand for Treasuries, prices of Treasuries should rise and market interest rates should DROP. Because stocks love low market interest rates, the stock market should restart. We have a build in cruise control. But when Treasury Direct starts selling, an unlimited supply, of short term Treasuries at higher than market rates, they stop the dropping of rates that would restart the stock market. This is when the yield curve crosses over. Treasury Direct is turning off the cruise control. Forget about what they are saying.
@@wowfrosted13 but the listener is supposed to be able to separate wheat from the chaff. I do agree his US market & gold call has not panned out the way it was supposed to but he is not a god, he is a mere mortal but his analysis is solid and rooted in reality. Markets can remain irrational longer than someone remains solvent. Anyway, I do think he PS should pick up a lesson in humility which would be beneficial to him in the end (same way ray dalio did in his early career). but in the end, I think his content is gold!
@@wowfrosted13 yeah and he was also spot on in 2001 and 2008, and no you can't just make random predictions and "be right a couple times in 20 years", that took a lot of knowledge and understanding. unfortunately I see him making apparent mistakes such as thinking the rest of the world is less screwed up than america when in fact 90% is much worse, that for example is just one of the flaws that probably don't allow his weak dollar call to pan out.
QE is socialism for the rich. I recommend researching "money changers" "Balfour declaration" and "hidden secrets of money" best of luck on your journey into finance
Did I hear it right that he views long rate to move higher to near 4% by the latter part of this year? There will be serious bloodshed on streets if that's the case.
If the gov cuts defence spending by 200 or 300 billion dollars and funnels that towards health care and education... would we be able to afford it then? curious
Sick of hearing we are undertaxed. prior to ww2 there was no 2% medicare tax, fica tax rate was much lower, state tax rates were much lower, gas tax?, property tax?, sales tax?? the problem is that the federal tax is now a minority of the taxes most people pay! it is the total tax bill that matters, not just federal income tax!
Why don't these analysts ever go into how the unemployment numbers are determined. Someone working a part-time job 10 hr's a week should not be considered employed.
someone looking for a full time job stuck at a part time job is counted in some of the unemployment measurements, go read up on the standards of each one if you're worried about that.
I found that odd as well. I been investing in his company and collecting dividends, but I would of also liked to hear what is overall plan is, but I own a shit load of gold and mining companies as well so whatever.
With the national debt and the potential of the U.S. defaulting, is owning long-term treasury bonds risky? I know bonds are generally considered a safe bet, but can the national debt just keep rising forever?
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 The United States has always been deeply in debt, except under Andrew Jackson; all the debt was paid off. And, the worst debt to GDP ratio was after WWII. However, I'm not sure what to expect over the next 30 years. I'm hesitant to own too many treasury bonds in case the U.S. eventually has to default. I don't think we can keep going like we are.
Gundlach is not only super bright, he's the only person I've ever seen tell CNBC time was up for his interview and that he needed to go. It doesn't hurt to have a closed fund. "Sorry, we can't take your millions because we already have too many." Must be nice. I'll keep following from my van down by the river.
Jefferey Gundlach has pretty good insight on the state of the U.S. economy and and shares some thoughtful ideas about its future. However, just like many other selfish billionaires he doesn't support the idea of government providing help to the middle class just like it does for the corporations and financial institutions. There is no wonder that the wealth gap continues to grow especially if the middle class continue to believe and support this guy's idea that only the billionaires should get government "handouts" in the form of tax incentives but a living wage or health care for the middle class is not affordable. How can society continue to exist in such lopsided thinking?
I'm in agreement. I hope I can afford a house if the price is right. I've been waiting for this day to come. I hope it's as horrific as they say it will be.
If government deficits drive much of the economic growth, why would a government surplus be something to aim for? Decrying the national debt is silly if the aim is to achieve growth in the economy.
@@kennethcooper6383 I was thinking about investing, esecially since bitcoin is low atm, but I still don't know enough about it to be confident with doing so... seems like a gamble though
the next recession should be here by now if not soon, it's the longest bull market recorded. instead of small quakes, the central bank is artificially propping up a sick economy and creating a condition for a major quake in the market. the Fed's mandate to maximize employment is challenged by the AI and automation of industries and the fed will have to do a Super QE 4 to further pump up the economy, all it will do is launch hyperinflation in the coming years.
you can't have hyper inflation from normal monetary expansion, it requires a collapse of production, then the shortage of goods causes the prices to go through the roof.
Not until 1984 that companies were allowed to buy there stock back, the reason being its a form of stock munipulation. So how is that good for the little the guy. This is a debt driven economy so ever body is broke so of course we can't afford anything.
I cannot accept the risk if he is right. I just re-allocated my portfolio to 10% stock and 90% short term treasury bonds. My returns will be lousy but I won't lose any money when the SHTF.
I like how he mentions the problem of wealth inequality, but rotates right into basking Dem Socialism, igniting that pure capitalism is what have us this wealth imbalance.
Jefferey Gundlach has pretty good insight on the state of the U.S. economy and and shares some thoughtful ideas about its future. However, just like many other selfish billionaires he doesn't support the idea of government providing help to the middle class just like it does for the corporations and financial institutions. There is no wonder that the wealth gap continues to grow especially if the middle class continue to believe and support this guy's idea that only the billionaires should get government "handouts" in the form of tax incentives but a living wage or health care for the middle class is not affordable. How can society continue to exist in such lopsided thinking?
All that has to be done is enforce the Sherman anti trust act that is already on the books by breaking up these companies. Also enact a new law forbidding companies from buy a PORTION of their rival company making the same products. This is how they are making cartels.
The USA is like a person with a large (and increasing) amount of credit card debt relative to their income - the only difference is that the USA controls the interest rate on it’s debt via our central bank. If one keeps the interest rate low, inflation will increase, if interest rates are allowed to rise, the government has a funding crisis. If one looks at history, what usually happens is inflation is allowed to get out of control. That will produce an arbitrary redistribution of wealth that will cause even more unhappiness and even more unstable politics.
While Gundlach is overwhelmingly accurate and astute, even the brightest people get data wrong. At 11:43 he says democratic “socialism is not a good way of building wealth” and then stupidly points to Venezuela. From 1997, Tony Blair led a platform designed to offer an alternative beyond capitalism and socialism; between the free market economics (favoured by Gundlach), and what it called “ethical reformism” which promoted New Labour's concern for social justice. The UK grew at an annual rate of 2.4pc during the 10 years Blair was in office, securing his party’s credibility with global financial markets (although behind the scenes Gordon Brown went on a spending spree)
Gundlach is a smart investor but his heightened visceral reaction against healthcare for all vs. QE spending says much about elitists’ desired position. I don’t support free-for-all kind of social programs but healthcare has been broken for decades in the US and needs to be addressed somehow.
Buying silver like a mad man very very under valued and buy gold on dips. Buying digits can be taxed and go to zero. Holding federal debt notes losses value every day. Real money Silver and gold can't be taxed.
nationalize the now private 'fed' ... public ownership of central bank is the only way to stop the unconscionable debt..the horrendous nation devastating deficit.. the unnecessary debt/deficit is $22 trillion.... skyrocketing ! ! !
Yeah right?No chance. Recessions are a thing of the past. We're way past that buddy boy. We're at the next step. Printing currency into Oblivion. We have a way to go though. Look at Greece. When we can't kick the can down the road any further. We will experience the greatest depression ever. It'll be worldwide. It'll spark Civil Wars. Global Wars. Guerrilla warfare inside the United States. And rumors of a World War.
There was no middle class during WW2. There was barely a tax base from the people. That is why taxes were so high for business back then. The want to be middle class was off fighting your war. All of these so called economists acting like a $22 Trillion dollar debt is acceptable to even have in a monetary system is the most disturbing.
I'd say you can no longer use unemployment as a recession indicator in the US due to shrinking worker demographics. Japan is a great example. When the population ages and retires, and a smaller generation is trying to fill those jobs, there will be plenty of jobs even during a recession. A recession or even depression can still happen with very low unemployment. The Japanese stock market is lower than during the 1990s and they still have extreme labor shortages.
I love the way these guys talk about corporate bonds without stocks. They know most people cannot connect the dots. I jokingly say there is for example an Apple stock company and an Apple bond company. Of course there is not. If corporate bonds collapse as he says what do you think is going to happen to stocks? Down 80%. Bonds are senior to stocks in preference to a company's assets. I disagree that long term treasury yields won't go down. US long yields are way higher than those in the UK, Japan and Germany and France and in the same range as basket case Italy. I am confident long dated treasury yields(currently 3%) will plunge below 1.5% or lower. The rush into Treasuries will be a stampede Japan is way more indebted than the US with long term Japanese government bonds at 0.5%(not a typo). So while the stock market collapses, holders of long term Treasury bonds and AAA corporates will do very well. Dont discuss it at cocktail parties when it happens or risk being kicked off everyone guest list.
The anthem of democracy seems to be turning into a nightmarish scream..... So much for spreading democracy around the world. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Finally, someone gets it! 5.3% increase in nominal GDP combined with 6% of GDP in deficit spending, is aswful. Wake up people, that deficit will really hurt us over the next 50 years.
Wow a mainstream guy and news source saying the truth about the markets and what’s coming! It’s a nice change
@James Gundlach has never been mainstream.
Was thinking the SAME thing....How'd they let this out!
I almost didn't watch, surprised me too.
@Jay Paul you think Bernie is for the working class? He's not. He's for the mooching class.
Jay Paul just like was J.R said Bernie is not for the working class Andrew Yang is.
Jeff is razor sharp smart and honest to boot! There are few people better to listen to when it comes to finance
I was just going to say he's razor sharp.
Even though it's an expression I rarely use.
And not just for finance but economics and politics
Paul Steinwall That is just not true. Look at his record before you spew falsehood.
Don't bother. People will not listen to guys like this. They will be watching the Simpsons when everything happens.
@Paul Steinwall When you do what he does and do it equally or better, then you can make criticisms. Have you done what he does? I did't thinks so, otherwise you wouldn't be here.
One of the only voices of reason.
Everything Mr. Gundlach said was 100% accurate. Couldn’t believe how honest he was in front of the camera.
Guy is spot on. No wonder he's not on TV more often. Truth serum. Mentioned 30 years and six presidents of fiscal irresponsibility. Ouch.
smart guy, i think he is only divulging 50% of what he knows and delivering it softly!!
Jeff Gundlach is an intelligent man. He understands the seriousness of our national debt. Politicians (Democrats and Republicans) are nearsighted arrogant self-centered despicable morons intentionally misleading Americans for personal political gain.
@RedondoBeach2 Well said!
Exactly✔️🙄
@Pre Programmed Remoaner NPC you mean Gold 🥇
@@RedondoBeach2 You nailed it!
Real GDP growth is deeply negative - be honest. Extract out the actual inflation rate AND the percentage of the GDP due to deficit spending.
I remember how lackadaisical the Rating Agencies were during the Financial Meltdown. They were a joke. I expect the same, soon.
Our problem is not taxation. Our problem is spending. When the debt problem comes to a head, politicians are going to call for massive tax increases on the middle class. When the middle class demands massive cuts in social services that's when the violence begins.
RyanKC When you give massive tax cuts to corporations, subsidies and other gifts then spending rises
What middle class lol
Tulsi Gabbard 2020!
No more wasteful regime change wars!
I've never paid a hospital bill or income taxes! Why would you? Unless, you pay your drug dealer $10,000 for an ounce of cocaine!
yes - we cut taxes on the rich and now we have a trillion dollar deficit... tax rates have been the lowest since the great depression..
Mannnnnn gotta love this MAN 👨
He keeps it real, keeps us informed and he probably doesn’t even realize how much he means to the everyday person. We really could use him in a different role for our country. But I’m sure he wants nothing to do with that!! Can he give the next minutes speech???
Please!! Educate the people Jeff people need to be taught something in order to prepare for their future....
thanks again
This is a brilliant summary of where we are at and the hazards facing us. I've been trying to tell my friends most of this information but to have this summary is fantastic. Even his timeline to total crisis of 2025. Brilliant. Exactly how I feel, with Ocasio Cortez (or someone similar) getting in in 2024....I'm sharing this widely.
The thing I see is you can't really tell most people because they don't want to hear it.
Props to Yahoo finance for having Jeff on and letting him run with the hard news.
Unless you have physical gold,sliver,water,food,guns and ammo you will be screwed. This will be a world wide depression not just a recession.
check on water, (old fashioned hand pump), food (plenty of land to grow vegetables), guns and ammo. Supply of Silver bars coming soon. Gold could end up being illegal to own if we go back to the gold standard before a collapse, but then again by then who will care? You'll be fighting to survive either way anyways.
A world wide depression, I think Not, more like a world wide meltdown. Get out your weed and a stack of rolling papers, its going to be amusing if you are high enough!
Loans from the Social Security system are not one branch of government funding another branch of the government. The Social Security funds are payments from workers paychecks into what is supposed to be a trust fund. The "excess funds" have been borrowed since the Reagan administration and every administration since to make the annual budget deficit look smaller than it actually is. When current worker contributions are projected to not be sufficient to pay current claims, as is forecast in the next decade, the loans will have to be paid back if benefits are to remain at current levels. But...paying the system back would require either new taxes or more borrowing to pay back the money borrowed. This friends are why rich people like Mr. Gundlach who are not going to have to worry about living on Social Security call for "entitlement" reform.
so it's gundlach's fault that social security is a scam?
Maybe the FED should bail out the social security system the way they purchased toxic MBS.
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 No Moron, it is not Gunlach's fault, what is his fault and all the others that call for "entitlement" reform is the continued narrative that the Social Security system is in crises because of underfunding and not because the Government has borrowed the reserves. And the incorrect statement that borrowing from Social Security is one branch of government borrowing from another and not a theft of the funds allegedly "held in a trust fund." By the way, it is not a scam you twit if the funds had not been taken to cover the deficit. But you go ahead and let the rich people tell you it's a scam so they can continue to take all the money.
@@kilgoringtroutless6295 If anyone has trusted this government to take care of them, their IQ is probably below average room temperature.
P.S. Social Security is just another tax. Legally, you are owed nothing.
The next recession will show it's self later in 2019. However, 2020 is going to be when the shit hits and it is going to be bad. Stay out of debt people.
Cocomion
Cocomilon
The car market is collapsing right now. We have a major problem.
Proof?
@@raymamo4606 the evidence is all around. The used car market in the UK has shot past the New Car market. There is a huge amount of debt leveraged upon cars and if a recession hits and people fail their payments then a lot of car manufacturers are going to enjoy a massive amount of default on payment....or in other words, they won't get paid.
Honda just announced they are moving out of the UK.
There is lots of evidence.
@@raymamo4606 Seriously ? You need proof? The Federal Reserve just announced that 7 million auto loans are 90 days behind. Have you been living under a rock ??
juggernaut
Paid cash for my used car.
@@raymamo4606 move to another rock..
why the heck is the FED becoming a stock market PUMPER machine. QE as a tool???
Because interest rates were lowered to almost zero, there weren’t any yields for pension systems and retirees. This people were forced into Realestate and the stock market to seek additional yield. Blow up the stock market blow up the boomer generation. Blow up the stock market blow up capital gains which is 20% of of government income. So, if the stock market crashes the consequences are severe.
Becoming? This has been going on for at least a decade now...
They pass laws to pump up their own stock (Nancy pilosi visa IPO) they burn down entire communities to build Pilosi a new winery in Napa w FEMA money.. prob got rid of the bodies shes hiding there and all those houses were burnt to make a deal with solar companies and pg&e.. all those new houses must be built to a new "green" code, ie
standard. They killed thousands of people in those fires for their own selfish gain They torched them while they slept, created traps so they couldnt get out. Its war on any one collecting soc. Security. They just killed of people because they have missed spent the money. They are doing it in San Bernadino, trying to get land owners to pay firefighter pensions they drained the accounts on (SBf5) The gov is now bailing out PG&E and GE so there wont be a interruption in business as usual. Dont think they wont go down without a fight. Their comfort and coddled egos are on the line.
@Goomonster They're getting into crypto because people will buy them. They're a terrible investment though.
@Goomonster To be clear, I'm not saying someone can't make money on it. It's just that it's value is entirely based on people wanting it because they think they can make money on it, and it's got perpetually increasing marginal cost of production built into it. These two things condemns every crypto to eventual implosion, much like a pyramid scheme. But you cam indeed make money along the way as long as you arent in it on the way down.
Haven't gotten out of last recession and your already talking about the next one?
Jeff is also Razor sharp at ensuring that gap between the rich and poor widens and widens,.... until..... its very legs are torn apart.
I would vote for Gundlach for President. There is no one currently running who has his handle on the problems and how to solve them.
Put him and Dalio on a ticket!
My question is approximately when? I’ve been waiting for two years and i don’t believe them anymore
Are you in a rush for it to happen??
Smart guy. So recession doesn't occur during half a year. Stock prices going up and down large amounts nervously has been usually a prelude to recession (1973, 2000, 2007). Usually the time period is one year. It is the case?
Who else came here after UA-cam suggested this during the corona virus crash of 2020? 🤔
still waiting for the real crash that 2020 was suppose to give us october 2024, you can hold me to it i dont think im going to have to wait another year we may have that meltdown this month october is often a bad month in history or post election i believe what i been waiting for since 2020 is withing 1-13 months max so were here we shall see
This guy sounds more and more like Peter Schiff!
This guy at least has a legit business
@@bananarepublic1339 so does Peter, 🤔?
because they are right, when all this debt does come to a head, its not an IF its a WHEN, and WHEN it happens the 2008 crash will look like a minor correction. The economy is maxed out on debt, people will stop spending when they max out their credit cards and we are getting to that point where 90% of the people is over leveraged. They never fixed the system only prolonged it by putting people further into debt! JUST WAIT it will happen
along with the massive student debt problem all those kids that are supposed to stimulate the economy by buying stuff will be stunted, we are in unprecedented territory and not even the fed or government knows what is going to happen, that should scare the shit out of u!
“Smart minds think alike”...lol
Recession could be a mild word unless QE4 bigger than all QEs put together comes. Demographics is another big dampener.
That sort of QE would result in inflation. Not growth.
Growth then inflation.
That is the one thing no one seems to recognize. A stagnant economy with poor wage growth and a generation much smaller than the previous having to support the pension obligations of the boomers all retiring within a 10-15 year span. This is peaking in 2019/2020. The pension obligations are unable to be satisfied by existing workforce participants and the wages that they're being paid.
@@nickzivs that's when, in time. confiscation will begin...let's hope for solutions; but yes, the smaller work force will be problematic...fewer goods and service purchases, too - leading to falling Corporate profits and lower S&P, DOW and NDX.
Did I hear this guy correctly? Did Greenspan really say, "If you understood what I said, I wasn't being vague enough?" I NEVER liked him...for THAT Reason! Sounds like he was not only admitting it, but BRAGGING about it!
During my senior year in college (1980), I remember thinking, "We need to get a handle on our National Debt." Guess how much it was then...TWO TRILLION DOLLARS! I believe it might be too late to do anything substantive about it. If we decided that we wanted to cut it in half, and to do so we ran a $500 billion per year surplus (I know...yeah right), it would take 22 years to achieve that Objective. I can't imagine our Government running a $5 billion surplus for ONE Year.
And just recently it has been pointed out that US growth is based upon massive wealth growth for the upper 10% and stagnation for the bottom 50%...
That is not a strong economy. That is a temporary unsustainable situation.
wow Gundlach really knows his stuff 100%
If companies are so highly leveraged would the prudent option not be to pay down debt with excess profits...?If top executives are paid in share options it would seem the reason they are buying back shares is to inflate their own shares..and who is in a better position to "pump and dump" in time if things go wrong..?
Fantastic interview. I liked how they let him speak, unlike the CNBC dolts. This man knows his stuff.
Excellent assessment of current economic factors.
Wealth inequality is pretty bad - what an understatement!
In what world would wealth be distributed equally?
@@cmhardin37 In a world of perfection, the communist dream perhaps where all are equal and not. The trend Gundlach was saying, was a tendency to greater inequality which would match an economy failing its people
@@ricochetVendetta The standard of living is higher than it has ever been. The lower income bracket of today is the top bracket of decades ago.
Most of the "poor" people I see are fat and have nice stuff. Hard for me to feel sorry for them.
@@highbrass3749 My Indian friend the other day told me Chris, I want to live in a country where the poor people are fat.
I just hope the government doesn't bail anyone out again. No business is too big to fail.
Unfortunately the world governments have been hijacked by banksters.
Cough cough
I’m not sure China matters anymore. At the end of the business cycle with as much corporate leverage and consumer debt.....things don’t look good.
Nice interview Yahoo
Consumer debt load
Lowering rates etc wouldn't help
Most consumers concern with paying of debts not taking on more
very smart man giving the average joe honest info about the economy. People should save like crazy to get us through the next recession
How are they going to save ?
The QE , globally 12 trillion into the system went into real estate stocks not wages
Inflated property prices etc debt burden
Most consumers simply surviving not thriving
What we can't afford is tax write offs for the wealthy and the Pentagon budget
Warren buffet and Jeff Gundlach back to back. Love it
corporate debt . is that what my pensions invested in?
Oh yes
My plan Freedom 55 is coverted to Freedom 75.
Aaron Marshall
Aliens are arriving this year.
Think Independence Day.
Don't be in bonds guys
The FED is a political party ...IMO... its a very small party and your not in it.
how can the fed really start easing when they haven't even raised enough to prepare for the next recession? there's like no ammo unless they go to NIRP. they have been saying the economy is strong and it's all roses. yellen is like this economy can't sink.
They should simply change the tax code and require them to report buy-backs to stockholders as a taxable event the same as dividends. Now, buy-backs have a tax advantage. After the change, buy-backs would actually be discouraged because the stockholder would have to pay taxes on a gain they didn't get in cash. Kind of like a limited-liability stockholder or partner has to pay taxes on undistributed gain. This would end buy-backs real quick.
Gov't spending is choking this country as technology makes markets become more price perfect, squeezing everyone's margin toward zero . This is stuff that gov't just can't stand to air in public. You go, Jeff!
That was a good explanation about 10 year.
In Economics we always are dealing with supply and demand theory. When there is a stock panic, investors rush to Treasuries because they want safety. This should cause a big increase in demand for Treasuries, prices of Treasuries should rise and market interest rates should DROP. Because stocks love low market interest rates, the stock market should restart. We have a build in cruise control.
But when Treasury Direct starts selling, an unlimited supply, of short term Treasuries at higher than market rates, they stop the dropping of rates that would restart the stock market. This is when the yield curve crosses over. Treasury Direct is turning off the cruise control. Forget about what they are saying.
I bet he has the peter schiff notification on! Pleasure to listen to this talk. Thanks Yahoo Finance!!
Peter Schiff has been saying there'll be a market crash every month for 20 years. He sells gold, so it's obvious why.
@@wowfrosted13 but the listener is supposed to be able to separate wheat from the chaff. I do agree his US market & gold call has not panned out the way it was supposed to but he is not a god, he is a mere mortal but his analysis is solid and rooted in reality. Markets can remain irrational longer than someone remains solvent. Anyway, I do think he PS should pick up a lesson in humility which would be beneficial to him in the end (same way ray dalio did in his early career). but in the end, I think his content is gold!
@@wowfrosted13 yeah and he was also spot on in 2001 and 2008, and no you can't just make random predictions and "be right a couple times in 20 years", that took a lot of knowledge and understanding.
unfortunately I see him making apparent mistakes such as thinking the rest of the world is less screwed up than america when in fact 90% is much worse, that for example is just one of the flaws that probably don't allow his weak dollar call to pan out.
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 I agree 100%.
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 a wrong clock is right twice a day
There's going to be a lot of turmoil during the next recession. Isn't that like saying there's going to be a lot of water when it rains?
"It was a really big hurricane - very wet. Trust me."
When was the last time everyone said we would have turmoil and it actually happened? Seems like a buying time
Absolutely. If I listened in 09 then I would have been screwed. Look now!! History documents that time is the friend of all markets.
going on 10 years of bull, the music of QE allowing company stock buy backs wont last forever
Thank you for posting this article. Schiff and Gundlach make way too much sense for the mainstream media
Gundlach is brilliant always listen to this guy
wait, quantitative easing as a regular tool? I'm slowly learning about the financial sector, but is that a reasonable thing to do?
QE is socialism for the rich. I recommend researching "money changers" "Balfour declaration" and "hidden secrets of money" best of luck on your journey into finance
Nice guest, not bad YF
They misspelt Peter Schiff
Did I hear it right that he views long rate to move higher to near 4% by the latter part of this year? There will be serious bloodshed on streets if that's the case.
If the gov cuts defence spending by 200 or 300 billion dollars and funnels that towards health care and education... would we be able to afford it then? curious
Sick of hearing we are undertaxed. prior to ww2 there was no 2% medicare tax, fica tax rate was much lower, state tax rates were much lower, gas tax?, property tax?, sales tax?? the problem is that the federal tax is now a minority of the taxes most people pay! it is the total tax bill that matters, not just federal income tax!
What a sick economic paradigm we have.
Why can't this guy run for president instead of these clowns in Washington
I watched this for 2 minutes and subscribed! Excellent information
Good honest interview. Please try and interview Ray Dalio 😎👍
Why don't these analysts ever go into how the unemployment numbers are determined. Someone working a part-time job 10 hr's a week should not be considered employed.
someone looking for a full time job stuck at a part time job is counted in some of the unemployment measurements, go read up on the standards of each one if you're worried about that.
Ben Pon
It would make more sense if they measured employment in fortieths of a week.
Nobody is asking Gundlach what he is doing with his investment strategy for his clients and where he sees invest-able areas in the next 5-10 years.
I found that odd as well. I been investing in his company and collecting dividends, but I would of also liked to hear what is overall plan is, but I own a shit load of gold and mining companies as well so whatever.
With the national debt and the potential of the U.S. defaulting, is owning long-term treasury bonds risky? I know bonds are generally considered a safe bet, but can the national debt just keep rising forever?
yes the national debt can keep rising foreverish, it has for over 200 years.
Yes, it is risky. Inflation through money printing might return the amount of dollars but inflation will reduce its purchasing power.
Once reserve status is lost American standard of living will fall. See British Empire for an example.
@Sysiphus Syziggy Not just Bush and Obama. You can add Clinton and Trump to the list. Look at a chart of the debt to GDP ratio.
@@xXJeReMiAhXx99 The United States has always been deeply in debt, except under Andrew Jackson; all the debt was paid off. And, the worst debt to GDP ratio was after WWII. However, I'm not sure what to expect over the next 30 years. I'm hesitant to own too many treasury bonds in case the U.S. eventually has to default. I don't think we can keep going like we are.
Great video, I love listening to Gundlach....
Gundlach is not only super bright, he's the only person I've ever seen tell CNBC time was up for his interview and that he needed to go. It doesn't hurt to have a closed fund. "Sorry, we can't take your millions because we already have too many." Must be nice. I'll keep following from my van down by the river.
Tulsi Gabbard 2020.
No more wasteful regime change wars.
Jefferey Gundlach has pretty good insight on the state of the U.S. economy and and shares some thoughtful ideas about its future.
However, just like many other selfish billionaires he doesn't support the idea of government providing help to the middle class just like it does for the corporations and financial institutions.
There is no wonder that the wealth gap continues to grow especially if the middle class continue to believe and support this guy's idea that only the billionaires should get government "handouts" in the form of tax incentives but a living wage or health care for the middle class is not affordable. How can society continue to exist in such lopsided thinking?
uhm we are already in one?
Next recession just means there will be alot more investment opportunities. Just save up cash and be on the lookout.
Hai Tran
>recession
>saving up cash
Choose one
@@pd7009I think he means prior to the recession
@@youtubermagazine7576 Either way, inflation.
I'm in agreement. I hope I can afford a house if the price is right. I've been waiting for this day to come. I hope it's as horrific as they say it will be.
Yeaaa ..... save up and invest so THE WHOLE CYCLE CAN START OVER AGAIN ... dumb arse
If government deficits drive much of the economic growth, why would a government surplus be something to aim for? Decrying the national debt is silly if the aim is to achieve growth in the economy.
I don't understand. What's wrong with corporate bonds?
Save your money, lads. Best to buy when there's blood in the streets!
Money is not gona save you its gona loose its value completely
@@kennethcooper6383 Yes, we must invest, but in what?
Cryptocurrency...
@@kennethcooper6383 I was thinking about investing, esecially since bitcoin is low atm, but I still don't know enough about it to be confident with doing so... seems like a gamble though
@@Finger_Lock_ it is but the government cant control it its yours
The presidents are already selected even FDR knew that.
Jeffrey Gundlach is a very informative investor and very thorough.
the next recession should be here by now if not soon, it's the longest bull market recorded. instead of small quakes, the central bank is artificially propping up a sick economy and creating a condition for a major quake in the market. the Fed's mandate to maximize employment is challenged by the AI and automation of industries and the fed will have to do a Super QE 4 to further pump up the economy, all it will do is launch hyperinflation in the coming years.
you can't have hyper inflation from normal monetary expansion, it requires a collapse of production, then the shortage of goods causes the prices to go through the roof.
Not until 1984 that companies were allowed to buy there stock back, the reason being its a form of stock munipulation. So how is that good for the little the guy. This is a debt driven economy so ever body is broke so of course we can't afford anything.
I don't think we came out of the last recession.
I cannot accept the risk if he is right. I just re-allocated my portfolio to 10% stock and 90% short term treasury bonds. My returns will be lousy but I won't lose any money when the SHTF.
How come interest rates are so low if we have a debt problem?
its not just the companies who have almost junk bonds its the others who are tied to them will get dragged into junk territory more then half sp 500
I like how he mentions the problem of wealth inequality, but rotates right into basking Dem Socialism, igniting that pure capitalism is what have us this wealth imbalance.
Jefferey Gundlach has pretty good insight on the state of the U.S. economy and and shares some thoughtful ideas about its future.
However, just like many other selfish billionaires he doesn't support the idea of government providing help to the middle class just like it does for the corporations and financial institutions.
There is no wonder that the wealth gap continues to grow especially if the middle class continue to believe and support this guy's idea that only the billionaires should get government "handouts" in the form of tax incentives but a living wage or health care for the middle class is not affordable. How can society continue to exist in such lopsided thinking?
Republicans are also socialists for the wealthy and well connected government contractors.
All that has to be done is enforce the Sherman anti trust act that is already on the books by breaking up these companies. Also enact a new law forbidding companies from buy a PORTION of their rival company making the same products. This is how they are making cartels.
Corporatism does not equal pure capitalism
Jeff and Peter Schiff make the most sense.
I cant agree that rates are going to go up. The rest of the world is at 0% and we are over 2. I'm cautiously buying medium duration bonds.
Helluva smart guy! Great interview!
Consumer debt will bring down the economy that is the elephant in the room
The USA is like a person with a large (and increasing) amount of credit card debt relative to their income - the only difference is that the USA controls the interest rate on it’s debt via our central bank. If one keeps the interest rate low, inflation will increase, if interest rates are allowed to rise, the government has a funding crisis. If one looks at history, what usually happens is inflation is allowed to get out of control. That will produce an arbitrary redistribution of wealth that will cause even more unhappiness and even more unstable politics.
While Gundlach is overwhelmingly accurate and astute, even the brightest people get data wrong. At 11:43 he says democratic “socialism is not a good way of building wealth” and then stupidly points to Venezuela.
From 1997, Tony Blair led a platform designed to offer an alternative beyond capitalism and socialism; between the free market economics (favoured by Gundlach), and what it called “ethical reformism” which promoted New Labour's concern for social justice. The UK grew at an annual rate of 2.4pc during the 10 years Blair was in office, securing his party’s credibility with global financial markets (although behind the scenes Gordon Brown went on a spending spree)
Gundlach is a smart investor but his heightened visceral reaction against healthcare for all vs. QE spending says much about elitists’ desired position. I don’t support free-for-all kind of social programs but healthcare has been broken for decades in the US and needs to be addressed somehow.
"Socialism is not a good way of building wealth.". Why don't we ask millennials if capitalism is a good way of building wealth?
Thank you so much for sharing such useful data! Greatly appreciated.
He sounds a little nervous. :-/
Buying silver like a mad man very very under valued and buy gold on dips. Buying digits can be taxed and go to zero. Holding federal debt notes losses value every day. Real money Silver and gold can't be taxed.
nationalize the now private 'fed' ... public ownership of central bank is the only way to stop the unconscionable debt..the horrendous nation devastating deficit..
the unnecessary debt/deficit is $22 trillion.... skyrocketing ! ! !
Recession could start September this year to early 2020 - be prepared !
Yeah right?No chance. Recessions are a thing of the past. We're way past that buddy boy. We're at the next step. Printing currency into Oblivion. We have a way to go though. Look at Greece. When we can't kick the can down the road any further. We will experience the greatest depression ever. It'll be worldwide. It'll spark Civil Wars. Global Wars. Guerrilla warfare inside the United States. And rumors of a World War.
why did the market crash last time he talked but not this time???
There was no middle class during WW2. There was barely a tax base from the people. That is why taxes were so high for business back then. The want to be middle class was off fighting your war. All of these so called economists acting like a $22 Trillion dollar debt is acceptable to even have in a monetary system is the most disturbing.
Well, if we do see 4% on the back end of treasuries equities are sure going to be one hell of a lot lower
I'd say you can no longer use unemployment as a recession indicator in the US due to shrinking worker demographics. Japan is a great example. When the population ages and retires, and a smaller generation is trying to fill those jobs, there will be plenty of jobs even during a recession. A recession or even depression can still happen with very low unemployment. The Japanese stock market is lower than during the 1990s and they still have extreme labor shortages.
This guy is AMAZING!!!!
I love the way these guys talk about corporate bonds without stocks. They know most people cannot connect the dots. I jokingly say there is for example an Apple stock company and an Apple bond company. Of course there is not. If corporate bonds collapse as he says what do you think is going to happen to stocks? Down 80%. Bonds are senior to stocks in preference to a company's assets. I disagree that long term treasury yields won't go down. US long yields are way higher than those in the UK, Japan and Germany and France and in the same range as basket case Italy. I am confident long dated treasury yields(currently 3%) will plunge below 1.5% or lower. The rush into Treasuries will be a stampede Japan is way more indebted than the US with long term Japanese government bonds at 0.5%(not a typo). So while the stock market collapses, holders of long term Treasury bonds and AAA corporates will do very well. Dont discuss it at cocktail parties when it happens or risk being kicked off everyone guest list.
The anthem of democracy seems to be turning into a nightmarish scream..... So much for spreading democracy around the world. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Finally, someone gets it! 5.3% increase in nominal GDP combined with 6% of GDP in deficit spending, is aswful. Wake up people, that deficit will really hurt us over the next 50 years.