Is Russia's Economy About to Bust?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 5 вер 2024
- Though Putin brags about the Russian economy’s durability despite having had the largest number of sanctions in world history imposed on it, the truth is things may be far from rosy for Moscow: Russia’s economy is skating on thin ice.
There are “many troubling signs,” Dr. Volodymyr Lugovskyy told Kyiv Post's Jason Smart. The Kremlin spent heavily immediately after its full-scale Ukraine invasion began. The rapid increase in spending was able to provide a temporary “sugar high,” alleviating some of the initial pains of the West’s sanctions, but now that high is coming down to reality: Russia is unable to cope with the massive inflation it has created.
Lugovskyy, who was born in Ukraine, received his PhD from Purdue University and is an Associate Professor of Economics at Indiana University, where he is now the Chair of the Economics Department.
Lugovskyy’s primary research interests include international trade, experimental economics, and financial economics. He has numerous publications in leading journals, such as the American Economic Review, European Economic Review, Journal of Financial Economics, and Journal of International Economics.
Answering Jason Smart's query, as to how bad things will get for Russia, Dr. Lugovskyy's answer leaves no doubt that the situation is far worse than what Moscow pretends.
More stories on our site: www.kyivpost.com
Our Twitter: / kyivpost
Our Facebook: / kyivpost
Glad to finally hear some inflation rates on basic products.
Great points about materials. Additional there is a severe labor problem:
- exodus of foreign workers
- emigration
- mobilization
- skilled workers in oil moving to safer industries
- Exodus of skills.
- Demographic black hole.
Indians and Chinese will replace that don't worry
A lot of Russians have been living increasingly on credit, and with the high interest rates that's gotta hurt.
True now 20%
And crypto currency.
@@sallywilton2236 18, and that's only morgage. And there are lots of preferencial programmes for example families with kids under certain age pay only 6% morgage
Inflation on factory gate prices is at 25%… that means the prices double every 3 years at that rate. Wages in some sectors have already doubled in 12 months.
On separate note- sanctions are a slow burn but more significantly have lingering impacts decades after lifting- there is a good Wikipedia article on Serbian sanctions to explain this in simple terms.
Russia is in terrible territory.
PPI is at 14% not 25%. In 12 months wages increased by 20%, meaning higher increase in wages than inflation. In EU is not better, there is bigger deficit in money while Russia has no problems there. Not to mention Russian tax can always be increased from 13% without any problems. That's not the case for countries for example Belgium where tax burden is already about 65% and government still runs deficit.
@@sleepyjoe7843russian bot
@@AleXcsGaming Yeah sure I'm bot while you don't like facts.
Last year the ruble became the rubble and is today the Yuan
Poot's dedollarization for trade is going according to plan like his 3 Days to Kyiv plan 💪🇺🇦💥
Thank you
Excellent interview, I am so glad I found this channel. I am sorry it took a war.
But hear is the thing, even on a good day the Russian Defence Department always raided the other Departments to keep afloat , which even their own ex Finance Minister Alexie Kudrin kept complaining about
Ivan took out a mortgage to buy a potato 🍲🍲🍲
Да ну откуда у нас картошка? Это дорого! Мы корешки в лесу выкапываем! А что это за слово такое ипотека?
@@user-ee9dl2yq1ewhile the west are using robots to vacuum the house and to cut their lawns 😂
@@Piccyman1Rentatato 🥔
@paulyoung4422 I wonder if there is a sanction to stop wheelbarrows being exported to russia 🤣
@@Piccyman1Не может быть! Ну ты ещё скажи, что роботы у вас в космос летают и лёд в Арктике раскалывают. 😂
Supporting Russia's war economy doesn't come cheap, and is unsustainable in the long term. However, when it all comes tumbling down, and Putin is no longer able to hide it from ordinary Russians is much harder to predict in the kind of timescales that matter. Let's not forget that Putin is gambling big on Trump pulling support for Ukraine.
Putin's "Trump Gamble" is not going to come to fruition.
Putin himself said he would prefer Biden
@@engliterra355Though that may be reverse psychology to make people vote for Trump. Hard to say.
@@joonaa2751 jaja sure. Putin says something- terrible. Putin doesn't say something- terrible again. You are hard to please
@@engliterra355 🤣🤣Don't even bother. There will always be a reason to cope.Next thing you'll hear is Putin influenced the election for Trump. If Biden wins, you'll here Putin wanted Biden coz he needs a diplomat to engage with to end the war. Like you said, hard to please.
Konstatin from Inside Russia
Has some interesting posts on key factors failing in economic. 😊
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
He s been saying this like forever the titanic is going down
Also @econ lessons
Thanks for your excellent work. ❤
Thanks.
WHAT ---> The RUSSIAN bank rate is 16%. ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD ?
Many Russians have gotten into debt due to low wages and high costs, and are now hopping from one loan to the next. Until no one lends them any money and the system collapses.
@@HikingandWandering Now is 19% according to my Russian Friend, and very soon will be 25% for mortgages, cars loans etc.
@@dirusso3030 That's not how a key rate works
18% base rate
It’s going up to 18%!
‘Sanctions greatly hurt the Russian economy.’
If Russia buys sanctioned goods indirectly, they are much more expensive
And to produce agricultural or consumer goods, you need worker, but these are either in Ukraine or in military industry
Many of them are under Ukraine soil.
10-15 % more expensive
Immigrants are moving to Russia from China India
Just the fact that Putin has raised taxes tells you all you need to know. Sanctions weren’t expected to change things overnight, but after two years they are starting to have an effect. I liken it to turning off a hose, it doesn’t stop the water flow immediately. S7 airlines in Russia have started to ground a number of their A320’s due to service issues.
Все очень плохо, брат! Уже сейчас.. Бассейн решили строить только на следующий год! Ты кстати сам из какой страны, чтобы сравнить?
@jeremy - taxes tend to rise along with wages. Have you not seen the actual figures - Russia’s growth rate, GDP, moved into high wage bracket? 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Lol@ "high wage bracket" myth.
@@bardsamok9221 higher than yours for sure. See WB, IMF figures etc 🤡
@@bardsamok9221 IMF, WB etc. 🤡
It hasnt crashed yet. What happened to all those people that went to the bank to get their money? You don't hear anything more about it. The banks closed and refused customer withdrawals.
I’ve already done this calculation. If you take the staple commodities across the world with economies comparable to Russia you can work out Russias inflation rate, a quick calculation tells me Russias inflation rate right now is at 35%.
😂1000% ! Правда-правда!
Several European states have expressed willingness to take more initiative within NATO in countering the challenge it faces. This includes old and new members as well as prospective members, namely Ukraine. The US administration has not supported them because it sees them as escalation. This leaves Europe in a precarious situation.
Very good in-depth economic analysis of the Russian economy.
Hopefully the sanctions on Russia get harder and more numerous. Personally I also try to support the ukrainian economy a little bit by buying stuff from ukrainian businesses that produce everything in Ukraine. Such as "Dodo Socks". An ukrainian business that makes all kinds of socks in various colours and with cute patterns and pictures and some really cool ones too, such as F-16 jets printed on the socks, but they also make underwear, sandals, puzzles and swim wear. The prices are really good too. I ordered from the in the past and was always happy with the quality and looks. Check them out. And yes, they deliver internationally. I live in western Europe and never had any issues. I needed socks anyway and their prices are good so I just ordered from them.
Dodo Socks. Fully ukrainian business, manufactures everything in Ukraine and donates some of their profits to the ukrainian military.
@moffing - 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
This is a joke😂
What happened to the Russian stock exchange
They got sanctioned, they stopped trading US dollar and Euro, in short it is collapsing.
😂 exactly. Ask china
Thanks
According to the Russian authorities, the average pension in Russia is 241.72 euros (18,521 rubles).
The price level in Russia is, however, comparable to that in Germany. 1 liter of milk currently costs an average of 80 rubles (1.04 euros); 1 kilo of flour 60 rubles (0.78 euros); 1 kilo of sugar 65 rubles (0.85 euros).
Is it the same well outside of Moscow and stpetersperg etc
The prices in Russia are 2-3 times lower then in Germany. Gas is 10 % of the German price.
@@user-lj8kg4jd1l In a country that produces gas, it seems normal that gas (and fuel in general) is a lot cheaper. However, the original comment stated that milk is now about 80 rubles per liter, flour and sugar about 60 rubles per kilo. And that sounds pretty similar to prices here in Belgium.
@@janentomenkafka look at Norway and their gas price. Not cheap at all.
@@engliterra355 Hi, I am Belgian so perhaps a Norwegian person can correct me. But in my view there are several reasons for high taxes on gas and fuel in Norway. First of all, Norway has a high standard of living and Norwegians can afford to pay high prices. Two, high prices on fossil fuel make it more interesting to use renewable energy. Taxes on fossil fuels are for example used to subsidize EV's. And three, income from gas and oil is pumped into a state fund that will keep future generations of Norwegians wealthy.
Excellent information, especially decoupling the cooked inflation figures from military production to get a much higher figure regarding the actual consumer economy
Winter in some parts of Russia sets in early. Not many people are aware of this.
People living in the countryside have always been poor, but at least they grow their own potatoes and some vegetables, they have a few chickens and perhaps a pig, and they heat/cook burning wood. They will survive the winter as they usually do. People living in cities may be worse off if there are black-outs and if staple food keeps getting more expensive.
Excellent answer to why inflation numbers are “low” in Russia.
Good to hear that consumers in Russia are starting to feel the impact of war, but I'd like to point out that we in the West have had some serious inflation ourselves. Here in Norway we had a bit of a delayed inflation due to some "planned inflation" initiatives, but it's starting to bite now. Most food items have increased by at minimum 10%, some food items I've relied upon have jumped more like 50% and now I'm reluctant to buy them.
However, I think in the long-term, say in the next couple of years, most prices will probably stabilize. A lot of that jump was due to electricity price shocks following the energy crisis in Germany, but the price of electricity has since fallen, and this summer the electricity prices have been very agreeable. Germany and other countries are installing new electricity generation and storage like crazy too.
I feel like this source of news is becoming my #1 for the russian vectors.
Joe Blogs has very interesting vids on the Russian economy as well as China,Turkey and India
yes a nolageble guy
ex us army
Agreed. I've learned a lot from Joe Blogs!
@@iantully8333 Not sure why he would have been in the US Army; he's British... or at least his accent is British.
I agree. Joe Blogs's videos are very informative.
@@heraklesnothercules. he said in one vlog that he was in control of nukes in a bunker for a 12 hour shift ,,,flick thou is volg,s it,s there some wear
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦🇺🇦
Been hearing this a long time now
So true, and we will hear it again in 6 months then next year and so on and so on. A dictatorship doesn't play by the same economic rules these so called experts keep talking about.
with all those resources performs so bad. what does it say about the leader?
If i was Ukraine, I would start printing fake rubles and crashing the ruble. The Russians have limited the amounts of rubles on the market to the point where this would actually work.
Keep in mind that most Russians have dacha and can and do grow food. They did this for years very effectively.
farming is hard labor though, it'll take lots of time to keep yourself fed, and you might be sharply disappointed about the quality of the produce
remember this is not about Russians starving, but about Russians experiencing being suddenly poor and naturally blaming Putin over the war
Sad for the Russian people.
NATO only spending .065% of their total GDP and already Russia s economy is failing .
No, its not.
India greatly relies on US and EU as BPO hub, they might lose that favor.
Going on two years of this prediction.
Sono convinto che se la guerra perdura con queste modalità , la Russia collasserà fra 18/24 mesi
🇺🇦🇬🇧
slava ukraini
Can the west not prompt Hyper Inflation in Russia. When money looses its value big time and people see their salaries and pension become worthless then they will feel the pain. A concerted effort in bring about that kind inflation should be the west's policy.
When will Ukraine stop begging ?
No, but the EU's is.
I heard inflation in north korea is low too
😂
❤❤❤ в плановой экономике инфляции не существует если хлеб стоит 1& то через 20 лет он будет стоить теже 1& и откуда это знаю по то му что я и мои родители родились и жили в СССР
@@user-xk9jw6gh2j this is exactly my point
Over many years, increasing share of Russian GDP was accounted by extraction industries. That concentrates economic power among few hands. Not the best outcome for what Soviets used to portray as "the struggling masses".
Things are so bad, Russians will start to move to Lvov and Kiev where the night life, Thank God, is still going strong.
You set a bar for the rest like the new Oticon that just came out
Sometimes some are having a bad time, try what u can. Give it time then go on
Sounds like it was on propose and not an accident.
Try all avenues then move on
hi Dr. we heard that many times as will have dive. I hope we got professional true anylises. we need to know the true not emotional opinions
We don't know? Is it about to "bust"? You have only been asking us nearly every week for the past two years. Are you going to keep asking until it finally does? 🙄🙄
See posts by INSIDE RUSSIA: Konstantin Samoilov - a Russian in exile...also on this subject. Great feed from you. Thank you. Jane, England.
The Kiev post talks about the booming Russian economy? Kiev only got 0 gpd totally dependent on blood money.
UA-cam is blocking you from being carried on Mastodon
Every economist says that it's going to bust for the past 2 years. Yet the supermarket shelves are full of imported goods from Italy etc..
Then you can eat pasta pieces while the stock market......
LOL
Very Brief And Summarize Ideas:
this is pure wishful thinking...
due to the western sanctions Russian imports are reduced drastically, this coupled with higher oil and gas prices ensuring stable economic situation especially the financial sector, all the goods can be replaced by its Chinese equivalent but at much cheaper prices and in the same time help in stimulating the Chinese economy who is trying to recover from COVID-19 aftermath, the Russian economy has great purchasing power and was traditionally monopolized by Western consumer products, especially european ones...
While the presence of Chinese products in the Russian market was very limited, now Chinese products, which possesses a large and wide basket of various goods and products, will replace these Western products...
at the same time, if the presidential candidate trump wins the presidential elections in what is temporarily called the united states of america, the expected round of economic sanctions on China including limiting Chinese access to western technology, this will push Chinese companies further towards engaging widely and comprehensively in the Russian market, most importantly lifting any restrictions on providing Russian companies with high-tech technology...
regarding the cars imported from China compared with its western counterpart, firstly China and Chinese automobile industry is not the Soviet union automobile industry, the Chinese cars manufacturers have to compete against all major cars manufacturing companies in the largest and the most dynamic and highly demanding car market in the world, so presuming those Chinese cars is Lada or gas Volga....etc this reflecting one aspects of a propaganda war if misinformation and disinformation or very wishful thinking...
Besides who told you that Russia is prohibiting its citizens from buying Western cars? there are always side sources, for example, from the Chinese market this will help in increasing the demands inside the Chinese market creating the right atmosphere for mutual depending, but Russian citizens who want to buy western cars must pay taxes that may reach 200% of those vehicles value (in return, Chinese and neutral countries cars receive preferential tax treatment)...
because it is not possible for Moscow to accept that its citizens, who work, accumulate savings, and make their wealth from the Russian market, financing the countries that financing the war taking place against Russia this is normal and understandable, and this is considered a logical matter if you want to buy a luxury Western car, whether from the english island of antichrist or from nasty germans, or even a car or truck from other western car manufacturers inside european or outside, you have to pay progressive taxes, for middle class and upper middle class beside the low income families there are a huge alternatives either locally or from China and some other neutral countries such as Malaysia...etc...
regarding contracts with China or India, you must not forget that there are no UN sanctions imposed through the so-called united nations bodies security. these are unilateral sanctions on the part of the western world, and all of them are colonial countries or because they are western colonies like english island of antichrist colonies between what is temporarily called new zealand, Oceania (temporarily called australia) and what is temporarily called canada,therefore, nothing prevents the Russians from selling oil and Gas, petrochemical products, minerals, fertilizers, grains...etc, In the international market, the problems are mostly regulatory related to insurance and this problem can be resolved through Russian state or Russian insurance companies or insurance sector of banking system, but as for India and China, the two countries relations with Moscow are old and historical, and the three are members of economic groups and organizations that lay the foundations and rules regulating the economic healthy relations based on parity, equality and fruitful corporation...
for our Chinese friends it is a matter of national security, they understand that China is the main target for what is temporarily called the united states of america alongside the english island of antichrist supported by both countries colonies in the region, so It is not in Beijing's interest to act with commercial opportunism to try to squeeze Russia's economic resources and revenues, especially from hydrocarbon products...
a weaker Russia means that the collapse of the Russian state will be closer and this will not be the first time in the last 100 years of Russian history, and with it the advance of what is temporarily called the united states of america, the english Island of antichrist, alongside the rest of the western world in its attempt or objects in geostrategic encirclement of China (geographically and strategically, In addition, in the event of a war breaking out between what is temporarily called the united states of america and its allies against China, Russia will play the role of the rear base and strategic depth for China...
In return, it is in Moscow’s interest to grant Beijing considerable discounts in oil and gas prices to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese products in the face of Western products and goods, and services, help in stimulating the Chinese economy and encouraging the internal consumption...
Of course, we here do not underestimate or ignore the magnitude of the challenges, obstacles, and structural and logistical problems that slowing the integration of both economy, especially the geographical distance ...., but such challenges create with them a lots of blessings and opportunities, especially the expansion of the oil and gas exploration base in Russian Siberia and the development of the regions of the Russian far east and expanding the logistics networks land, river and air transport connecting China and Russia, it is a considerable challenge but not an impossible mission...
Of course, we here do not underestimate or ignore the magnitude of the challenges, obstacles, and structural and logistical problems that slowing the integration of both economy, especially the geographical distance Which, for example, separates the main Russian oil and gas production areas from the main Chinese consumption markets, but such challenges create with them a lots of blessings and opportunities, especially the expansion of the oil and gas exploration base in Russian Siberia and the development of the regions of the Russian far east and expanding the logistics networks land, river and air transport connecting China and Russia, it is a considerable challenge but not an impossible mission...
I'm surprised India was involved because I had very nice east Indian friends.
There is only one India. The rest is an idiot's (Columbus') imagination.
@jasonjaysmart so how clever are you? I wonder. With a name like that I wouldn't even dare to upload anything. I am DogFather The Great, because I am little.
🔥🔥🔥🔥☠️🇷🇺🔥🔥🔥🔥
Was he in Taxi?
Come back when Russian economy has tanked. They is dozen and dozen of expert saying this for over a year +. And so far..their economy is fine. Russian has all they need in shopping center and have replaced ALL western countries good.
So experts..you are wrong..very wrong.
It is slowly circling down the hole
Look at their car market, the chinese import cars that sell for 1million rubles in china sell for 3-4 million rubles in russia. And they are shit cars not made to last. So yes russia replaced western goods, but with garbage.
Liar.
Russian economy has beening about take dive past 2.5y every day all day.
Потирают свои влажеые ладошки от предвеушения, европейские нацистики). Не дождетесь, как всегда!😂
How will you troll when Putin clamps down on YT?
@@brianquigley1940Уйдем в Телеграмм или ещё куда-нибудь). 21-век на дворе. А что будете делать вы, когда Ютуб нагнут, как Фейсбук и Цукерберга и он начнет сдавать всех своих пользователей? Тоже уйдете в Телеграмм?😂 Признавайтесь, у вас тоже есть там аккаунт?
No it's not, Russia''s economy is doing great, even better than at the start of the war. Such nonsense.
Ukrainians talking about the decline of the Russian economy is as funny as Cuba talking about the decline of the US economy.
truth is Russia can keep going for at least 2-3 years....long after Trump cuts aid.....
Your truth 😂
Truth is 80 other countries will still support Ukraine
This video, like the videos with the same title of 2.5 years ago will not age well
They all aged very well. Russia's inflation was not 8% 2.5 years ago, but the videos predicted it.
What? I know people in russia, they are feeling it bucko.
Trump will help Russia. No probs.
I wouldn't bet on that. The orange one is a bit unpredictable, if he decides war is good for the US defence sector, he will keep on sending help to Ukraine. He may even increase it.
Trump has to get elected to do anything.
This man is a joke.
Sorry but the Russian economy is booming right now. 1)Oil sales have doubled in last year so economy is flush with cash, 2)thousands of western owned business closed due to sanctions so now Russians own these or started new local companies to replace western ones. With more money staying in Russia, Russians are getting wealthier and local consumption skyrocketing 3) Government has rapidly boosted war expenditure which is also boosting incomes and local wealth. Just look at how beautiful Moscow is and all streets filled with people and parties. Sad to say but sanctions are not working. Dealing with a madman is maddening!
Per Russian State Statistics Service Rosstat, 22.6% of Russians do not have indoor plumbing. In rural Russia, almost 2/3rd's have no access to indoor toilets, 48.1% use outhouses and 18.4% do not have a sewage system! The mighty Russian empire!
Misinformation
Will someone PLEASE get word to this guest that it’s not necessary to end every single freaking sentence with “right,” and in fact it’s incredibly annoying.
That is how these Brits usually speak.
😂The truth hurts 🤕 Ivan 😭!😂😂🎉
you are annoyed by worrd ''right'' instead of the information provided.
Quite frankly I didn't notice because what he was saying was so interesting.
@@user-ws7qo3zu1o low class Brits, maybe. But he’s not British nor is this a British video or a British topic so that’s a strange comment to make
Dans tes reves !
Middle Finger Up The Russia's Haters !!! 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
Hilarious clickbait. Most of the world is struggling economically right now, even China. Why focus on Russia, who comparatively speaking, are doing extremely well under their current war economy?
Hilarious. You dusted off this old account to post this? 🤡🤡🤡🥱
I'm guessing that you don't live in Russia.
LOL
It's going really well, the inflation rate is currently 16% and in Finland, for example, even though the Finnish economy is not really doing well at the moment, the inflation rate is 1.3%, it's going really well, another indication of how well the Russian economy is doing is that Putin is begging for help from North Korea, whose GDP is even a dizzying whopping 6% of Finland's annual GDP, It must be really strange logic if you can conclude from that that everything is going well
@@Finnishguy777 fsb troll farm workers aren't engaged in logic. They are telling us what the kremlin wants the world to believe. And what Putin wants to hear. I find them useful because their messaging serves as a crude reverse image of what the Kremlin is thinking. Like when Putin accused Ukraine of being controlled by national socialism while Putin was rapidly converting Muscovy to an authoritarian national socialist system with Russian characteristics.
@@GroofusDoofus900 I can say the same about you
LOL this guy. What a dork. We’re back to 2022 talking points: “Russia won’t survive the winter!”
Russia has been the one saying Ukraine is finished this whole time while losing 1000s daily... unless you believe all is fine in the Kremlin and anything negative is western propaganda 😂😂😂 silly orc
That is what Russians said though. "Europe will freeze". Gazprom even made commercials on that theme. Meanwhile, Gazprom is now operating at loss.
No, that is what Russia said about EU. Now Gazprom is going bust. Seems EU did not need their energy.
Self projection, mirroring.
RF old playbook 😊
🇷🇺---->🚽🤷🏼♂️
very interesting, The mentioned inflations rates are the same in Germany by the way.
Nonsense. The inflation rate in Germany is 2.20%. In Russia it is as high as 7.8%
In Germany it was never so high and it is going down. In Russia it is rising. Russia Bot.
Does Germany also have 16% interest rates too?
@@nigelgarrett7970 And a currency that cannot be converted freely to $?
Nowhere near the same. The bank rate is 16%. You will be lucky to get a bond at 19%. I believe that the inflation rate is far higher than the official figures. Do you believe Russia?
ines ?
My advais to you is wory abouth our economy here dont bull shit abouth Russia!