"Authoritarian regimes, such as Vladimir Putin's are common in history" and normal governance in the Russian 'empire'. In the last 500 years Russia has only enjoyed anything approaching representative democracy in a mere handful of years!
There is only one Russian leader that steered Russia towards being a democratic country and that was Gorbachev. He made the fatal mistake of grooming Putin as his successor which turned out to be an absolute disaster for Russia as has played out over the past 25yrs where Putin has been on a path of Imperialism via non stop invasions in an attempt to re-create the old Soviet USSR by brute force and attempted occuption & genocide of Russia's neighbours in seeking overall control & power of these now independent Baltic Countries
Arguable as long as two years 1991-2, BUT the old soviet siloviki having remained, shows thateven those two years were illusion. So, as Katy Yoder succinctly commented. no. It never existed.
In Russia , there are the goverment , the FSB, the FSA, the Army , the Rosgardia (100.000 troops) , the economic elites, the local oblast bosses, the local Politsia . With such many different bodies of power that are in balance with each other , it becomes complicated to launch a coup although the economic , monetary and infrastructure situation is becoming worse plus the military endless stalemates, setbacks, and Russian territory strikes and destroying - burning destructions....
@@2112jonr they were massed on the outskirts of Moscow . Thus the Wagners stopped their advance and didn't fight the Rosgardia "in order to not spill Russian blood". But it could happen that the Rosgardia (and the siloviki) should have been sympathetic with Prygozhin. The complexity of all these different corps of the Sate Security , Armed Forces + private militia and their interaction makes that it is unlikely that a revolution could occur . Or that could be that the FSA & FSB are hand in hand with the main military and some important elites to get rid of Putin whose strategy is ruining Russia !!
I read somewhere that after a certain year Hitler almost never had his senior members of government meet all at once together because he didn't want to give them the opportunity to conspire together against him. Does Putin follow a similar strategy with the heads of his security services or does he just use sheer terror to keep them in line and obedient?
Putin has to keep fighting to stay in power. Look at Milosevic of Serbia. He lost every war he started, people supported him. His popularity peaked when he took on the NATO. His last battle was in Kosovo. When he lost that one too there was nothing to fight for any more and his own people raised against him. Serbian wars and Russian war has lots in common.
We all hope so.... hard to predict. most of the time these things happen sudden and extremely quick. basically when we hear it, it's already over. russia is falling apart though. economy, infra etc. at some point you get passed a breaking point. perhaps this winter when thousands will freeze, literally.
@@ThisHandleWasTheOnly1Available pragmatic reality. putin’s destiny pursues him. You cannot screw up as often and as bad as putin and expect a favorable outcome. You just can’t
It's good that you bring all these specialist's! That Ukraine learns well that dictatorship is a very bad way for a society. Very interesting to me as a German international management consultant that dictators very seldom have success. Thanks for your reports!! ❤❤❤❤❤
I think people should recall the case of Nikita Khrushchev, when they’re thinking about this question. Khrushchev presided over Russia’s biggest, most undeniable, most abject and total defeat of the entire Cold War: The Cuban Missile crisis. It was so politically damaging at home, let alone such a massive victory for the west, that it crushed Khrushchev’s career on the spot. But what interests me about that was the way it just, “happened,” over night, with barely a rumble among the people at large. The government could not white wash the fact that they had backed down in a game of nuclear chicken and the west had retained supremacy over the western hemisphere by getting Russian nukes out of Cuba. So, Khrushchev was simply replaced and went into, “early retirement,” or whatever, but it was, “business as usual,” thereafter so far as the Russian population was concerned. Brezhnev took charge in 1964 after Khrushchev was formally, “dismissed,” for, “reasons,” but it was all pretty smooth. I raise this point because it seems to me that Russia has the political infrastructure and experience, as well as the inbuilt demographic habitat, to accept a sudden change of leadership as the cultural norm, don’t you think? I would have like to see how your guest would have answered that question, or reflected on that (and other) historical experiences in Russia?
Russian communist party will only accept so much "failure" by any leader. After that, an "unfortunate accident' will occur and the leader will be no more. A new leader will be put in place.
Look, I am against dictatorship, but with atomics weapons, I find all of this scary!😮 Truly a great deal of important information. I appreciate it. What the point of being a dictator? Once in power, a dictator as to worry all day long about about being killed. 😮
USA Supercomputers video needed about this Ukraine war Scenario. Of course Pentagon will not release any information on this. But many hete would like an "expert" to comment on this!❤😮 thanks
Asking how many people love Putin is like asking the same question about Joseph Stalin or Leonid Brezhnev. A face on a banner or a portrait in the home says nothing about their true allegiances. The discussion on Prigozian in Rostov as being benign and almost a celebration, parallels the response of Russians to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Few of any consider it a threat to their national pride or Russian culture. Growing indifference to Putin may reflect in increased indifference and non-support of the SMO and the war economy objectives.
American here. I just pray our country realizes what we have before we lose it. This is terrifying. But a big part of why I am so worried is because the right in America is massively armed with automatic weapons. Omg! I feel so bad for the people in Ukraine and in Russia. Why are we humans so stupid? We are a self destructive lot!
@fredkite9330 from my point of view this is not helpful. Je just becomes more irrational and all over the place. I had aunt with the same personality disorder and trust me, it gets worse. However the government will be completely transformed into an autocracy in the first 6 months. That's Project 2025. Those behind that are more awful than can be imagined. It'd really bad. It's like watching a 50 car pile-up in slow motion to me. Where in the world are you ?
Lukashenko had huge mass protests against him after the fraudulent election and the security forces arrested large numbers of people. The population would have had to have weapons to be successful. The Russians were supporting him, but with Putin tied up in the war, the availability of that help may be questionable.
Your guest has an excellent insight into inner workings of dictatorships. Such people should also act as advisers to democratic governments as a side job.
@@telebubba5527 No one would bet sgainst your prediction because of your use of "could". As it is physically possible he may not last in power beyond 2024 you cannot lose.
Russia's biggest long term issue is male demographics. 1) Too few Russians are having children, due to economic stresses. 2) Many (educated) 20-30 year old males have either fled Russia to avoid conscription, or are currently involved in Ukraine. 3) Vodka, kills most Russian men before age 60. A decade from now with all these issues combined, there will not be enough educated, young Russians avalible to maintain the economy, much less have a viable military to compete against NATO. Clearly, Putins war in Ukraine, is Russia's last struggle before it implodes into civil war. Turning into a bunch of nuclear armed states, desperate enough to cash in on their former nuclear legacy.
@@ButtCheeks1 Normally yes... poverty drives people to have more children. However, Russia has already turned that corner with the belief that they're a modern country, just like any Western land. Hence, younger Russians no longer want kids, not the expenses that come with them.
Yep, and considering the West's political squabbling and the former lack of $upport for NATO, Putin also underestimated the West's newfound 'motivation' and _solidarity_ this time around.
I thought this might prove illuminating, but it doesn't seem so. The principle that each country goes about such things in its own ways suggests that one should look back as far as the Crimean War for Russian analogies, then consider what things are different--perhaps even unique-- in the current case. It seems to me that no matter how one cuts it, the future does not seem promising for either Putin or the Russian Federation. Political asylum for Putin is most unlikely; it didn't work for Trotsky, and today's Russian intelligence services are a lot better than in 1917.
Number one factor for change is the emergence of a more intelligent person than Putin such as Gorbachov! The Intelligence is like horse power for a vehicle.
Putin is not only to fall, the Russian Federation will disintegrate indifferently if the West wants it or not. It would be good if the entire democratic West would support Ukraine.
It's always been the same in Russia. Putin is not popular because he is Putin, he is popular because he is the strongest. They say that with Putin there are always three types of people. 10% will always vote for Putin no matter what, 10% will always vote against Putin no matter what and 80% will only vote for Putin if he holds on to power as the current strong man. That is why Prigozhin was greeted by many as marched on Moscow as he was seen as the new "hard man".
I agree with what the good professor said. She, unlike the host of the Kyiv Post, did NOT almost totally discount the potential of a successful coup by the populace. During the revolt against the Soviet Union causing its collapse and the revolt against the Shah of Iran it was the people's total revolt against those totalitarianism regimes that made the military pull their support from the regime. Currently we are seeing a lack of empathy for the regime of Putin and the acceptance of inevitability of serfdom by the Russian people as the current situation in unoccupied Russia while a growing sense of individual freedom and independence by Russian people in parts of Ruaaia occupied by Ukraine. While the Oligarchs are seeing their prospects and riches continue to diminish as Putin maintains control. Putin has become increasingly more paranoid as he sees his military leaders become more successful and independent. First it was Prigozhin then more and more leaders of the military. Putin knows the more successful each leader in the military and/or secret services, the more precariousl is Putin's and more of threat those leaders are to Putin's power. This explains his current need to eliminate military leaders and will need to eliminate leaders in FSB (KGB) and GRU. This need to maintain Putin's control of secret services is the reason Putin re-established Stalin's old Comench and NOT just as a tribute to Putin's hero Stalin. The fact Putin had to threaten Lukashenko twice recently to stop his drifting away. And it took the second phone call (threat) by Putin just to get Lukashenko to have his Belarusian military with Putin's Wagner forces mass at the border of Belarus and Ukraine has been an embarrassing example of Putin's diminishing control. The enormous mass of missiles and bombs on Ukraine this past week was as much away to prove to his oligarchs and generals both how vicious and powerful Putin is more than it was to punish the Ukrainians for the success of the Ukrainian military in Kursk and other places inside Russia. Strategically and Tactically, not to mention the wasteful loss of human life & waste of resources, does it make sense for Poland & the Baltic Nations to send troops to Ukraine? None! Have Poland & Romania cover & protect western Ukraine certainly. Get Sweden to put a quarter of her Airforce east of Warsaw. Get Finland to mass troops on its border and drop leaflets offering Russian generals and soldiers amnesty and asylum most assuredly. Certainly mass Polish forces including Patriot missiles on Polish border with Belarus along with some Polish troops massing with troops of the Baltics nations and Lithuanian Patriot missiles on the Lithuanian border with Belarus across from Minsk. Do all this while offering Lukashenko amnesty and asylum to Lukashenko if he quickly appoints his leading opponent of the last Belarusian election to be temporary acting President of Belarus while Lukashenko retires immediately. PRC (China) and North Korea already have weapons and people fighting or supporting Putin's war in Ukraine. There are already Islamic terrorists and drugs in NATO nations pushed there by Lukashenko, Putin, Xi Jinping and the Iranian mullahs. If Poland and the Baltic Nations go to war, then actually go to war. If Lukashenko refuses take Minsk with northern Belarus offering asylum for any opposition forces who move to Belarusian border with Hungary and stand down. Then from Minsk take St. Petersburg offering asylum to any in Putin's Vertical of Power except Putin. Offer Russian generals amnesty and some of the oligarchs' money if Moscow surrenders. This whole thing would be over in days if not hours. It makes no sense to let the WEF and those leaders of NATO nations who are corrupt make any more money off this war while losing the lives of millions of people. Not one more life should be lost in vain and Ukraine should at least be safe and free with all its property from 1991. Slava BUH. Heroyam Slava. Slava Ukraini. PS. Then see if Erdogan still wants Turkey to be part of BRICS or stay part of NATO. ua-cam.com/video/-3bllPAYL9U/v-deo.htmlsi=aeaO0509X-zh3nLR
The problem is also that if and when Putin falls, there is a high likelihood that the regime will continue with just a change of leader. Some bad policies may be ended and attributed to Putin, but the regime will not change.
I think you're probably right. Democracy just isn't a thing in Russia. Bill Browder said his experience in Russia was that everyone at any level of government works with the expectation of making money beyond their salary. The notion of public service isn't in their DNA.
Replacing one failed leader with another of the same caliber will only prolong the suffering of the Russian people and lead to ultimate collapse of the Russian system. It should not be long now.........
Just as Putin has underestimated the resolve and commitment of the Ukrainians, he has also underestimated the will of certain individuals within Russia. At some point, something will push Russian patriots to take care of the Putin problem within their own country.
As long as the Putin propaganda machine's lies are willingly consumed by the vast majority of his enslaved populace, Putin will be sated. Once the majority of the Russian people begin to think for themselves, that is when a change in Russia will begin.
Very interesting. It seems from what you say that dictators have quite a good chance of surviving a long time. Being a dictator is quite a lucrative job. Dictators want to utilize money as a defense against losing power. Money works better with poor people. Bribes of Elites seem relatively more massive if normal people are poorly informed and poor. Many years ago when I was a military doctor I remember the old joke about why the top echelons kept their power: "We are like mushrooms, they kept us in the dark and feed us shit" Seems like a good formula for a budding dictator for a baseline strategy for controlling his minions. Are dictator more likely to be neurodiverse or neurotypical. I would favor the former answer to this one...... because an essential element for success is a glutamate-driven excellent memory. A sauce of low empathy, a fondness for keeping secrets and a need to look like an Alpha male also must help. What about women dictators are they also mostly slightly autistic or narcissistic? How do female dictators keep power for a long time (eg in Bangladesh)? It is fascinating that Trump can even generate fear in the USA which I thought was a sophisticated place and less prone to mass hypnosis. I must be missing something about Trump. I thought it was something about the way he moves his hands. The population groups that Dictators prey on, the type of culture (eg Fico in Slovakia or Orban In Hungary or confucian systems in China) and the types of language used must play a role. Technological in advances monitoring your captive population helps dictators as well as limiting access to various parts of the Internet. I feel that reverse propaganda is not used enough. Pamphlet distribution, graffitti and music with dual meanings as well as negative descriptions of Dictators are not used enough. Humor as used a lot against Trump in the US could be usefully employed against sensitive tin-pots like Lukashenko even tiny puTIN. Many thanks. A Luta Continua From Ireland.
Putin will fall, but its going to be slow i think, the only person that i know of who could make it fast was Yevgeny Prigozhin. He was the one who could have done it swiftly and that is also one of several reasons Putin had him killed.
All people should stay for days/weeks in all the main roads until the dictator moves out of the President Palace, like what happened to India, they just assembled to the main roads in protest of low salt supply given to the Mainlanders/Indians. Just like that mi amigos y amigas. Amen. - The Mr. Globe/Idolizer(Mahatma Gandhi-Nelson Mandela-Dr. Jose Rizal-Sen. Benigno S. Aquino,Sr.)/Secret Invader/Explorer/Whatevers🇻🇦🇻🇦🙏🙏❤️🇵🇭❤️🙏🙏🇻🇦🇻🇦
If the elections were held next week in Russia, former Ukraine and Israel, who do you think would get reelected? How democratic is the decision to ban Ukrainian Orthodox Church by a President decree? If the USA elect Donald Trump, and he decides not to send help to Ukraine, what happens next? How smart was not to investigate and prosecute those responsible for Trades Unions building massacre in Odessa in 2014 ? So many questions, very few answers.
Trump is not stupid enough to not support Ukraine, now that other members of NATO have actually stepped up to the plate with funding and commitment of military resources. A free, less hostile world would actually benefit US business interests, and, Trump is aware of that.
At the current rate of male carnage of the pool of young Russian males, there will not be enough male population when this thing is over to successfully repopulate an already declining Russia. Gonna be a lot of lonely old Russian maids out there........
I wouldn't say that this is anything that we can Wish for per se. As the professor explains, the stakes are extremely high. But the fact that there is speculation about how secure Putin is, now that he is drastically over stretched himself, (and we're hearing this more and more) might indicate I think that we are moving beyond wishingful thinking to perhaps actually seeing something happen. When? The old adage of "How long is a piece of string" comes to mind. Anyone planning anything will need to include an element of surprise. "For them to know - Us to find out!" But what we can know is that when it does happen, be it successful or not, it'll happen suddenly and very quickly. Here’s hoping.
The Rusian tactical approach to this fight is vividly reminiscent of the classic 'Charge of the Light Brigade.' Putin must derive perverse pleasure from creating such massive numbers of War Widows and orphans, or he would surely change his strategy. He, continues trying the same thing, and expecting that this time, against probability, he will actually win.
5:45 This has nothing to do with popularity, this is two general reasons, two big groups and ofc within these two groups you have differences, but we look at the bigger picture and not on fine detail now. And those are the group that´s remembers the good old Soviet era times, and those born after Soviet fell. So start with the Soviet group of people, they want that back, and "Like" Putin for it. but they have demands. Second group that want´s freedome and democracy and want Russia to join the free world and Europe those are afraid of the all the laws and regulations Putin have made. Cuz if they break even just walking aginst red light its 10 years prison time. They are scared with laws to submissions. they dont dare to act. int not that they like Putin.
They have a slave mentality. Coddled by their Russian masters for so long, they don't know that the rest of the world is leaving them behind in the dust of history.
There is another option: Military defeat. Hitler was defeated militarily. Of course there are non imperialistic dictators. Such as Franco in Spain or Maduro in Venezuela.
I agree that an authoritarian regime is the light version of a totalitarian dictatorship. In an authoritarian regime there is still a bit of pluralism but very restricted. Free press or independent judiciary don't exist. Erdogan in Turkey is heading this way, the ideology is getting every time more islamist. Another example was Franco in Spain. In a totalitarian dictatorship there is only one ideology, everyone has to be inline, they try to form people according to this ideology. Other opinions will be brutally oppressed. Examples are Hitler, Stalin, North Korea, Iran. It's interesting that 75% of the Turkish people in Germany, enjoying freedom and democracy voted for Erdogan, many more than in Turkey itself.
The serious question arises - who will follow Putin if he is ousted? There are many vying for power who seem to have the mentality of using nuclear weapons to end the war. Let's hope cooler minds prevail.
The use of nuclear weapons anywhere in Europe would cause the nuclear fallout from the use of such weapons to land upon the lands of Russia, poisoning the milk and food supply which sustain the population. And, who is to say that Ukraine actually surrendered ALL of the thousands of nuclear weapons that it had when the USSR collapsed?
An interesting commentary, but I disagree strongly with this ‘expert’ about getting rid of dictators. Contrary to what she claims, alas, history has shown that it is extremely difficult, and indeed rare, to remove a dictator internally. They have incredible resilience and remain in power until they are actually dead, and if they are removed it is almost always by an external power. Napoleon came back after being exiled to Elba, and it took the Germans and British finally to remove him so far he could no longer cause damage. It took probably the largest combined force in history to finally oust Hitler. Idi Amin of Uganda was only removed by an invasion by an army from Tanzania. Cambodia’s Pol Pot’s regime was only removed by an invasion from Vietnam. We said the same about Saddam Hussein, but he was left to fight another day after being booted out of Kuwait and was only finally stopped by the US army 13 bloody years later. Ghaddafi’s plight was hastened by external interference. Stalin and Franco died in power, in their beds. The only really famous internal ousting wannabe dictator was Julius Caesar, and that was about 2000 years ago, and that was actually a pre-emptive move! Romania’s Ceausescu is the only one in modern times who springs to mind, and that only happened in the wider context of the fall of the Iron Curtain. As for the oligarchs; Putin needs them and they need him. If he falls so will many of them, so they’re going to stick by him on the safety-in-numbers principle. He'll stay in power, believe me, and die in his bed of old age. And the people? Why don’t they rebel like in 1917, during WWI? No comparison. Then they had an inspirational, brilliant opposition leader (Lenin) and, much more important, an all-promising life-changing ideology, Communism. At least it filled them all with hope then (even if it turned out to be a false hope). As Victor Hugo once said ‘Nothing is as strong as an idea whose time has come’. That was overwhelmingly the case in 1917. Now there is no ideology, no ’idea’. The people have been numbed into obedience. Believe me; Putin will die while still in power, under whatever circumstance, but probably ripe old age. Especially as the West appears to prefer to deal with him, whom they consider reasonable enough not to use nukes, on the better-the-devil-you-know principle, rather than risk some other unpredictable maverick.
I believe communism was written for a nation that was Industrialized. Russia at that time was an Agrarian society. They were not ready for the doctrine and never followed the establishment of a proletariat, right ? Instead, it morphed into a doctrine of wicked individual’s ambitions who desire to control the masses. Never in the interest of the people. Even Democracy fails in this category but never to the degree of Communism, Democratic-Socialist or any religious dictatorship.
Meta AI forgot the greatest of them all, Catherine the Great. She was in a gilded jail because her mother was spying for Deutschland. Meta AI "Here are some Russian leaders who emerged from jail: - *Nikita Khrushchev*: Khrushchev was imprisoned several times during Stalin's rule, but eventually rose to power after Stalin's death in 1953. He became the Soviet Union's leader from 1953 to 1964 ¹. - *Joseph Stalin*: Stalin was imprisoned multiple times, including a five-year term in Siberia, before becoming the Soviet Union's leader from 1922 to 1953 ¹. - *Mikhail Gorbachev*: Although not imprisoned in the classical sense, Gorbachev was placed under house arrest in 1991 during the August Coup. He later became the last Soviet leader, serving from 1985 to 1991 ¹. These leaders' paths to power were marked by their ability to navigate the complex Soviet political landscape and consolidate power amidst turmoil." Please ensure Russian dissidents, upon release, cultivate healthy sleep , diet microbiome and aerobic exercise IF ANYONE can pass this on.
Odd that my original comment appears to be held back. IDK, if that is UA-cam or Kyiv Post. I expect UA-cam, which is troubling. Is there another platform I can follow Kyiv Post and comment on?
Every day, we wake up and check the news hoping to read the headlines that Putin is dead.
Same for T**** in the US.
same
Yes, that is so true. That Russian pos is going to get his Karma soon..
It's not Putin. He represents the brutality of the system. It's the system that rewards this behavior that is the problem.
Me too.
It'll be a colder winter for many Russians soon.
GGGGRRRREEEEAAATTTT!
Depends if live near a gas refinery lol 😂
@@Nick-ov8smproblem with that, is the chronical inability to lower the thermostat.
Russians have gas and oil like no other nation. More likely a colder winter for Europeans and North Americans.
Thank you Natasha and Jason.
Thank you for watching!
Love Watching Jason's Show ! He Always Brings Out The Reality !
Thank you for watching!
You're Welcome !
"Authoritarian regimes, such as Vladimir Putin's are common in history" and normal governance in the Russian 'empire'. In the last 500 years Russia has only enjoyed anything approaching representative democracy in a mere handful of years!
NO
There is only one Russian leader that steered Russia towards being a democratic country and that was Gorbachev. He made the fatal mistake of grooming Putin as his successor which turned out to be an absolute disaster for Russia as has played out over the past 25yrs where Putin has been on a path of Imperialism via non stop invasions in an attempt to re-create the old Soviet USSR by brute force and attempted occuption & genocide of Russia's neighbours in seeking overall control & power of these now independent Baltic Countries
Arguable as long as two years 1991-2, BUT the old soviet siloviki having remained, shows thateven those two years were illusion.
So, as Katy Yoder succinctly commented. no. It never existed.
No doubt due to Russia's extensive size. With the fall of Putin will come the break up of the Russian Federation.
@@KatyYoder-cq1kc YES
Good expert from Essex Uni.
Alas, 'experts' have a great track record of being proved wrong!
@@Chetifs1095 Alas, "users" with no profile pics and accounts created in 2024 have a great track record of being orkybots.
❤Ukrainians ❤
Excellent interview. Thank you.
Thank you!
One of the best informative interviews, well done by both, thank you.
Thank you very much!
In Russia , there are the goverment , the FSB, the FSA, the Army , the Rosgardia (100.000 troops) , the economic elites, the local oblast bosses, the local Politsia . With such many different bodies of power that are in balance with each other , it becomes complicated to launch a coup although the economic , monetary and infrastructure situation is becoming worse plus the military endless stalemates, setbacks, and Russian territory strikes and destroying - burning destructions....
But where were the Rosgardia when Prigozyn went AWOL ?
@@2112jonr they were massed on the outskirts of Moscow . Thus the Wagners stopped their advance and didn't fight the Rosgardia "in order to not spill Russian blood". But it could happen that the Rosgardia (and the siloviki) should have been sympathetic with Prygozhin. The complexity of all these different corps of the Sate Security , Armed Forces + private militia and their interaction makes that it is unlikely that a revolution could occur . Or that could be that the FSA & FSB are hand in hand with the main military and some important elites to get rid of Putin whose strategy is ruining Russia !!
I read somewhere that after a certain year Hitler almost never had his senior members of government meet all at once together because he didn't want to give them the opportunity to conspire together against him.
Does Putin follow a similar strategy with the heads of his security services or does he just use sheer terror to keep them in line and obedient?
@@2112jonr Like the Chechens elite TikTok they where on their way.. backwards.
With the Wagners demonic reputation they all sat it out.
@@RupertSound Soon there may be nothing! 😢 Sad
Thank you. Great info.
Putin has to keep fighting to stay in power. Look at Milosevic of Serbia. He lost every war he started, people supported him. His popularity peaked when he took on the NATO. His last battle was in Kosovo. When he lost that one too there was nothing to fight for any more and his own people raised against him. Serbian wars and Russian war has lots in common.
Ive been waiting years for a good interview about coups. An expert finally. Awesome.
Thanks for watching!
SLAVA UKRAINE!
Absolutely fascinating. Great guest! Great interview!
Thank you!
We all hope so....
hard to predict. most of the time these things happen sudden and extremely quick. basically when we hear it, it's already over.
russia is falling apart though. economy, infra etc. at some point you get passed a breaking point. perhaps this winter when thousands will freeze, literally.
Putin pulled a Hitler card 🤔🇺🇦😎💪 but failed 🤷
We are fighting autocracy everywhere in the world. Germany is making the same mistakes as in the 30s. Slava Ukraini. Freedom forever.
Slava Ukraini
Another very interesting guest, thank you 🙏 Don’t forget to like and subscribe guys.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
It is not IF, it is WHEN.
Wishful thinking
@@ThisHandleWasTheOnly1Available pragmatic reality. putin’s destiny pursues him. You cannot screw up as often and as bad as putin and expect a favorable outcome. You just can’t
More like NEVER
@@LunarJim69 maybe tomorrow. Maybe tonight.
Will Putin run or be taken for a ride?
nowhere to run really.
@@CyberBeep_kenshi Maybe Mongolia? Lol
Poutine et sa clique on déjà racheté et aménage une ile argentine ou se retirer en cas d'échec.
@@pauldreze3414 Putin ≠ poutine!
Pushed through a window.
It was good to hear from her. Dr Smart is very smart.
There isnt an authoritarian government that is doing well economically
Except one that is falsifying the economic stats
They believe they can fly, they believe they can touch the sky...
@@geoffgill5334 Some hold to themselves key economic stats and sudenly the world seem to be more beautiful😊
It's good that you bring all these specialist's! That Ukraine learns well that dictatorship is a very bad way for a society.
Very interesting to me as a German international management consultant that dictators very seldom have success.
Thanks for your reports!!
❤❤❤❤❤
I think people should recall the case of Nikita Khrushchev, when they’re thinking about this question. Khrushchev presided over Russia’s biggest, most undeniable, most abject and total defeat of the entire Cold War: The Cuban Missile crisis. It was so politically damaging at home, let alone such a massive victory for the west, that it crushed Khrushchev’s career on the spot.
But what interests me about that was the way it just, “happened,” over night, with barely a rumble among the people at large. The government could not white wash the fact that they had backed down in a game of nuclear chicken and the west had retained supremacy over the western hemisphere by getting Russian nukes out of Cuba.
So, Khrushchev was simply replaced and went into, “early retirement,” or whatever, but it was, “business as usual,” thereafter so far as the Russian population was concerned. Brezhnev took charge in 1964 after Khrushchev was formally, “dismissed,” for, “reasons,” but it was all pretty smooth.
I raise this point because it seems to me that Russia has the political infrastructure and experience, as well as the inbuilt demographic habitat, to accept a sudden change of leadership as the cultural norm, don’t you think?
I would have like to see how your guest would have answered that question, or reflected on that (and other) historical experiences in Russia?
Russian communist party will only accept so much "failure" by any leader. After that, an "unfortunate accident' will occur and the leader will be no more. A new leader will be put in place.
Russian apathy is astounding.
Apparently it's "the mysterious Russian soul" 😶
Look, I am against dictatorship, but with atomics weapons, I find all of this scary!😮 Truly a great deal of important information. I appreciate it. What the point of being a dictator? Once in power, a dictator as to worry all day long about about being killed. 😮
USA Supercomputers video needed about this Ukraine war Scenario.
Of course Pentagon will not release any information on this. But many hete would like an "expert" to comment on this!❤😮 thanks
A palace revolution. Nothing else to expect at the best. Cosmetics changes in a never-end authoritarian regime.
Asking how many people love Putin is like asking the same question about Joseph Stalin or Leonid Brezhnev. A face on a banner or a portrait in the home says nothing about their true allegiances. The discussion on Prigozian in Rostov as being benign and almost a celebration, parallels the response of Russians to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Few of any consider it a threat to their national pride or Russian culture. Growing indifference to Putin may reflect in increased indifference and non-support of the SMO and the war economy objectives.
Roumanian had a very sudden popular uprising without prior indicators or initial military support...IIRC
American here. I just pray our country realizes what we have before we lose it. This is terrifying. But a big part of why I am so worried is because the right in America is massively armed with automatic weapons. Omg! I feel so bad for the people in Ukraine and in Russia. Why are we humans so stupid? We are a self destructive lot!
Hope America will maintain its freedom. At least Trump is very very old.
@fredkite9330 from my point of view this is not helpful. Je just becomes more irrational and all over the place. I had aunt with the same personality disorder and trust me, it gets worse. However the government will be completely transformed into an autocracy in the first 6 months. That's Project 2025. Those behind that are more awful than can be imagined. It'd really bad. It's like watching a 50 car pile-up in slow motion to me. Where in the world are you ?
This is an absolutely fascinating clip.
Winter! Moscow! Saint Petersburg! No electricity! No heating oil! No clean safe water! No sewer system! No gasoline! Lots of vodka! No Putin!
Emperor Putin is "Fiddling while Russia burns"
Lukashenko had huge mass protests against him after the fraudulent election and the security forces arrested large numbers of people. The population would have had to have weapons to be successful. The Russians were supporting him, but with Putin tied up in the war, the availability of that help may be questionable.
У Росії заборона на гоління між бровами для жінок повинна бути скасована.
Lol
Your guest has an excellent insight into inner workings of dictatorships. Such people should also act as advisers to democratic governments as a side job.
I think Putin could fall any time soon, even though he has a degree of popularity among a proportion of the public.
Notice my use of the word, "could". But I might be willing to place a bet that Putin could be gone by the end of the year.
That 'degree of popularity' might vanish quite quickly if that ever happened. One of the key attributes in such a society is hypocrisy.
@@telebubba5527 No one would bet sgainst your prediction because of your use of "could". As it is physically possible he may not last in power beyond 2024 you cannot lose.
i.e. You are not suggesting betting on him leaving power, you are betting on the logical possibility of it happening, which of course is always true.
Why didn't Mongolia arrest him
They chose to ignore international arrest warrant
Maybe because Mongolia is the meat in a Russia & China sandwich? look at the map.
Mongolia stated they are 99% dependent on Russia for oil. Didn't try to hide it. 😮
Great expertise ❤
0:34 "The war not going as planned..."
You can say that again lol
Watched Russian Monitor tv blaming China for cheap tanks that don't operate properly when new. Then attacked trades with China. 😮
Russia's biggest long term issue is male demographics.
1) Too few Russians are having children, due to economic stresses.
2) Many (educated) 20-30 year old males have either fled Russia to avoid conscription, or are currently involved in Ukraine.
3) Vodka, kills most Russian men before age 60.
A decade from now with all these issues combined, there will not be enough educated, young Russians avalible to maintain the economy, much less have a viable military to compete against NATO. Clearly, Putins war in Ukraine, is Russia's last struggle before it implodes into civil war. Turning into a bunch of nuclear armed states, desperate enough to cash in on their former nuclear legacy.
@@ButtCheeks1 Normally yes... poverty drives people to have more children. However, Russia has already turned that corner with the belief that they're a modern country, just like any Western land. Hence, younger Russians no longer want kids, not the expenses that come with them.
Russia seriously under estimated the potential strength of the west.
Yep, and considering the West's political squabbling and the former lack of $upport for NATO, Putin also underestimated the West's newfound 'motivation' and _solidarity_ this time around.
Window or Tea?
He could get froggy and opt for both...
Stalin is said to have been poisoned for instance.
The Front lines have moved into Russia...
I thought this might prove illuminating, but it doesn't seem so. The principle that each country goes about such things in its own ways suggests that one should look back as far as the Crimean War for Russian analogies, then consider what things are different--perhaps even unique-- in the current case. It seems to me that no matter how one cuts it, the future does not seem promising for either Putin or the Russian Federation. Political asylum for Putin is most unlikely; it didn't work for Trotsky, and today's Russian intelligence services are a lot better than in 1917.
Trolls will be in africa or Petersburg
Excellent analysis !
Very complex negative situation !
Number one factor for change is the emergence of a more intelligent person than Putin such as Gorbachov! The Intelligence is like horse power for a vehicle.
... either lies, or guns.
Putin is not only to fall, the Russian Federation will disintegrate indifferently if the West wants it or not. It would be good if the entire democratic West would support Ukraine.
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It's always been the same in Russia. Putin is not popular because he is Putin, he is popular because he is the strongest. They say that with Putin there are always three types of people. 10% will always vote for Putin no matter what, 10% will always vote against Putin no matter what and 80% will only vote for Putin if he holds on to power as the current strong man. That is why Prigozhin was greeted by many as marched on Moscow as he was seen as the new "hard man".
I agree with what the good professor said. She, unlike the host of the Kyiv Post, did NOT almost totally discount the potential of a successful coup by the populace. During the revolt against the Soviet Union causing its collapse and the revolt against the Shah of Iran it was the people's total revolt against those totalitarianism regimes that made the military pull their support from the regime. Currently we are seeing a lack of empathy for the regime of Putin and the acceptance of inevitability of serfdom by the Russian people as the current situation in unoccupied Russia while a growing sense of individual freedom and independence by Russian people in parts of Ruaaia occupied by Ukraine. While the Oligarchs are seeing their prospects and riches continue to diminish as Putin maintains control. Putin has become increasingly more paranoid as he sees his military leaders become more successful and independent. First it was Prigozhin then more and more leaders of the military. Putin knows the more successful each leader in the military and/or secret services, the more precariousl is Putin's and more of threat those leaders are to Putin's power. This explains his current need to eliminate military leaders and will need to eliminate leaders in FSB (KGB) and GRU. This need to maintain Putin's control of secret services is the reason Putin re-established Stalin's old Comench and NOT just as a tribute to Putin's hero Stalin. The fact Putin had to threaten Lukashenko twice recently to stop his drifting away. And it took the second phone call (threat) by Putin just to get Lukashenko to have his Belarusian military with Putin's Wagner forces mass at the border of Belarus and Ukraine has been an embarrassing example of Putin's diminishing control. The enormous mass of missiles and bombs on Ukraine this past week was as much away to prove to his oligarchs and generals both how vicious and powerful Putin is more than it was to punish the Ukrainians for the success of the Ukrainian military in Kursk and other places inside Russia.
Strategically and Tactically, not to mention the wasteful loss of human life & waste of resources, does it make sense for Poland & the Baltic Nations to send troops to Ukraine? None! Have Poland & Romania cover & protect western Ukraine certainly. Get Sweden to put a quarter of her Airforce east of Warsaw. Get Finland to mass troops on its border and drop leaflets offering Russian generals and soldiers amnesty and asylum most assuredly. Certainly mass Polish forces including Patriot missiles on Polish border with Belarus along with some Polish troops massing with troops of the Baltics nations and Lithuanian Patriot missiles on the Lithuanian border with Belarus across from Minsk. Do all this while offering Lukashenko amnesty and asylum to Lukashenko if he quickly appoints his leading opponent of the last Belarusian election to be temporary acting President of Belarus while Lukashenko retires immediately. PRC (China) and North Korea already have weapons and people fighting or supporting Putin's war in Ukraine. There are already Islamic terrorists and drugs in NATO nations pushed there by Lukashenko, Putin, Xi Jinping and the Iranian mullahs. If Poland and the Baltic Nations go to war, then actually go to war. If Lukashenko refuses take Minsk with northern Belarus offering asylum for any opposition forces who move to Belarusian border with Hungary and stand down. Then from Minsk take St. Petersburg offering asylum to any in Putin's Vertical of Power except Putin. Offer Russian generals amnesty and some of the oligarchs' money if Moscow surrenders. This whole thing would be over in days if not hours. It makes no sense to let the WEF and those leaders of NATO nations who are corrupt make any more money off this war while losing the lives of millions of people. Not one more life should be lost in vain and Ukraine should at least be safe and free with all its property from 1991. Slava BUH. Heroyam Slava. Slava Ukraini.
PS. Then see if Erdogan still wants Turkey to be part of BRICS or stay part of NATO.
ua-cam.com/video/-3bllPAYL9U/v-deo.htmlsi=aeaO0509X-zh3nLR
It can’t come soon enough.
The problem is also that if and when Putin falls, there is a high likelihood that the regime will continue with just a change of leader. Some bad policies may be ended and attributed to Putin, but the regime will not change.
It must come from the young generation.
@@Nels921 unfortunately the young generation is likely to reproduce the behaviors it is learning from the old ones.
I think you're probably right. Democracy just isn't a thing in Russia. Bill Browder said his experience in Russia was that everyone at any level of government works with the expectation of making money beyond their salary. The notion of public service isn't in their DNA.
@@jim2376or any politicians
Replacing one failed leader with another of the same caliber will only prolong the suffering of the Russian people and lead to ultimate collapse of the Russian system. It should not be long now.........
Just as Putin has underestimated the resolve and commitment of the Ukrainians, he has also underestimated the will of certain individuals within Russia. At some point, something will push Russian patriots to take care of the Putin problem within their own country.
Do not give up ad an opposition.
Be ready for your turn.
Act then immediately.
Defenestration, descalier, dependir, dutire, a Batitsky moment, who knows?
But could his replacement be worse?
Of course!
Why would you ask her to give advice to dictators? we don't need to be helping dictators. SMH
Such an important point - a dictator still has to have some support from the mob.
As long as the Putin propaganda machine's lies are willingly consumed by the vast majority of his enslaved populace, Putin will be sated. Once the majority of the Russian people begin to think for themselves, that is when a change in Russia will begin.
It never ends well. Ask Hussein or Khadafi
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Don't forget Azerbaijan another autoratorian regime.
Very interesting. It seems from what you say that dictators have quite a good chance of surviving a long time. Being a dictator is quite a lucrative job. Dictators want to utilize money as a defense against losing power. Money works better with poor people. Bribes of Elites seem relatively more massive if normal people are poorly informed and poor.
Many years ago when I was a military doctor I remember the old joke about why the top echelons kept their power: "We are like mushrooms, they kept us in the dark and feed us shit" Seems like a good formula for a budding dictator for a baseline strategy for controlling his minions. Are dictator more likely to be neurodiverse or neurotypical. I would favor the former answer to this one...... because an essential element for success is a glutamate-driven excellent memory. A sauce of low empathy, a fondness for keeping secrets and a need to look like an Alpha male also must help. What about women dictators are they also mostly slightly autistic or narcissistic? How do female dictators keep power for a long time (eg in Bangladesh)?
It is fascinating that Trump can even generate fear in the USA which I thought was a sophisticated place and less prone to mass hypnosis. I must be missing something about Trump. I thought it was something about the way he moves his hands. The population groups that Dictators prey on, the type of culture (eg Fico in Slovakia or Orban In Hungary or confucian systems in China) and the types of language used must play a role. Technological in advances monitoring your captive population helps dictators as well as limiting access to various parts of the Internet. I feel that reverse propaganda is not used enough. Pamphlet distribution, graffitti and music with dual meanings as well as negative descriptions of Dictators are not used enough. Humor as used a lot against Trump in the US could be usefully employed against sensitive tin-pots like Lukashenko even tiny puTIN. Many thanks. A Luta Continua From Ireland.
Putin will fall, but its going to be slow i think, the only person that i know of who could make it fast was Yevgeny Prigozhin. He was the one who could have done it swiftly and that is also one of several reasons Putin had him killed.
All people should stay for days/weeks in all the main roads until the dictator moves out of the President Palace, like what happened to India, they just assembled to the main roads in protest of low salt supply given to the Mainlanders/Indians. Just like that mi amigos y amigas. Amen. - The Mr. Globe/Idolizer(Mahatma Gandhi-Nelson Mandela-Dr. Jose Rizal-Sen. Benigno S. Aquino,Sr.)/Secret Invader/Explorer/Whatevers🇻🇦🇻🇦🙏🙏❤️🇵🇭❤️🙏🙏🇻🇦🇻🇦
If the elections were held next week in Russia, former Ukraine and Israel, who do you think would get reelected?
How democratic is the decision to ban Ukrainian Orthodox Church by a President decree?
If the USA elect Donald Trump, and he decides not to send help to Ukraine, what happens next?
How smart was not to investigate and prosecute those responsible for Trades Unions building massacre in Odessa in 2014 ?
So many questions, very few answers.
Yawn
Trump is not stupid enough to not support Ukraine, now that other members of NATO have actually stepped up to the plate with funding and commitment of military resources. A free, less hostile world would actually benefit US business interests, and, Trump is aware of that.
Putin is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
At the current rate of male carnage of the pool of young Russian males, there will not be enough male population when this thing is over to successfully repopulate an already declining Russia. Gonna be a lot of lonely old Russian maids out there........
More wishful thinking. Just hope it comes true.
Most dictators do fall
I wouldn't say that this is anything that we can Wish for per se. As the professor explains, the stakes are extremely high. But the fact that there is speculation about how secure Putin is, now that he is drastically over stretched himself, (and we're hearing this more and more) might indicate I think that we are moving beyond wishingful thinking to perhaps actually seeing something happen.
When? The old adage of "How long is a piece of string" comes to mind. Anyone planning anything will need to include an element of surprise. "For them to know - Us to find out!" But what we can know is that when it does happen, be it successful or not, it'll happen suddenly and very quickly.
Here’s hoping.
The Rusian tactical approach to this fight is vividly reminiscent of the classic 'Charge of the Light Brigade.'
Putin must derive perverse pleasure from creating such massive numbers of War Widows and orphans, or he would surely change his strategy. He, continues trying the same thing, and expecting that this time, against probability, he will actually win.
Einstein called what Putin is doing "Insanity". Einstein was a pretty smart fellow!
5:45 This has nothing to do with popularity, this is two general reasons, two big groups and ofc within these two groups you have differences, but we look at the bigger picture and not on fine detail now. And those are the group that´s remembers the good old Soviet era times, and those born after Soviet fell. So start with the Soviet group of people, they want that back, and "Like" Putin for it. but they have demands. Second group that want´s freedome and democracy and want Russia to join the free world and Europe those are afraid of the all the laws and regulations Putin have made. Cuz if they break even just walking aginst red light its 10 years prison time. They are scared with laws to submissions. they dont dare to act. int not that they like Putin.
They have a slave mentality. Coddled by their Russian masters for so long, they don't know that the rest of the world is leaving them behind in the dust of history.
There is another option: Military defeat. Hitler was defeated militarily.
Of course there are non imperialistic dictators. Such as Franco in Spain or Maduro in Venezuela.
yeah, great and then it was years of the nuke race and the fear of the soviet union.
Is an AUTHORITARIAN the same as TOTALITARIAN?
Degree.
I agree that an authoritarian regime is the light version of a totalitarian dictatorship. In an authoritarian regime there is still a bit of pluralism but very restricted. Free press or independent judiciary don't exist. Erdogan in Turkey is heading this way, the ideology is getting every time more islamist. Another example was Franco in Spain.
In a totalitarian dictatorship there is only one ideology, everyone has to be inline, they try to form people according to this ideology. Other opinions will be brutally oppressed.
Examples are Hitler, Stalin, North Korea, Iran.
It's interesting that 75% of the Turkish people in Germany, enjoying freedom and democracy voted for Erdogan, many more than in Turkey itself.
It all sucks, but you will know once you experience it.
They can be both, but, usually authoritarianism generally precedes a totalitarian regime.
The serious question arises - who will follow Putin if he is ousted? There are many vying for power who seem to have the mentality of using nuclear weapons to end the war. Let's hope cooler minds prevail.
The use of nuclear weapons anywhere in Europe would cause the nuclear fallout from the use of such weapons to land upon the lands of Russia, poisoning the milk and food supply which sustain the population. And, who is to say that Ukraine actually surrendered ALL of the thousands of nuclear weapons that it had when the USSR collapsed?
Fairly intetest 8 on a ten scale video
Putin would be a lot more popular six feet under.
An interesting commentary, but I disagree strongly with this ‘expert’ about getting rid of dictators. Contrary to what she claims, alas, history has shown that it is extremely difficult, and indeed rare, to remove a dictator internally. They have incredible resilience and remain in power until they are actually dead, and if they are removed it is almost always by an external power. Napoleon came back after being exiled to Elba, and it took the Germans and British finally to remove him so far he could no longer cause damage. It took probably the largest combined force in history to finally oust Hitler. Idi Amin of Uganda was only removed by an invasion by an army from Tanzania. Cambodia’s Pol Pot’s regime was only removed by an invasion from Vietnam. We said the same about Saddam Hussein, but he was left to fight another day after being booted out of Kuwait and was only finally stopped by the US army 13 bloody years later. Ghaddafi’s plight was hastened by external interference. Stalin and Franco died in power, in their beds. The only really famous internal ousting wannabe dictator was Julius Caesar, and that was about 2000 years ago, and that was actually a pre-emptive move! Romania’s Ceausescu is the only one in modern times who springs to mind, and that only happened in the wider context of the fall of the Iron Curtain.
As for the oligarchs; Putin needs them and they need him. If he falls so will many of them, so they’re going to stick by him on the safety-in-numbers principle. He'll stay in power, believe me, and die in his bed of old age.
And the people? Why don’t they rebel like in 1917, during WWI? No comparison. Then they had an inspirational, brilliant opposition leader (Lenin) and, much more important, an all-promising life-changing ideology, Communism. At least it filled them all with hope then (even if it turned out to be a false hope). As Victor Hugo once said ‘Nothing is as strong as an idea whose time has come’. That was overwhelmingly the case in 1917. Now there is no ideology, no ’idea’. The people have been numbed into obedience.
Believe me; Putin will die while still in power, under whatever circumstance, but probably ripe old age. Especially as the West appears to prefer to deal with him, whom they consider reasonable enough not to use nukes, on the better-the-devil-you-know principle, rather than risk some other unpredictable maverick.
I believe communism was written for a nation that was Industrialized. Russia at that time was an Agrarian society. They were not ready for the doctrine and never followed the establishment of a proletariat, right ? Instead, it morphed into a doctrine of wicked individual’s ambitions who desire to control the masses. Never in the interest of the people. Even Democracy fails in this category but never to the degree of Communism, Democratic-Socialist or any religious dictatorship.
It would be very good for the world if trump and putin are out of government this December. 😅😅😅😅
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She's understating the issue I think
He did that himself for Yelstin.
Haha, Putin is going nowhere! Time for peace talks.
Step a little closer to the window, Vladimir.
Around him or her. It was a her in recent history? Or just DEI.
Definitely Earned It - yes she did earn it.
You didn’t ask about the chance of Putin’s assassination
There have been at least 13 known attempts so far. Maybe more that we don't know about. Sooner or later...........
I dont believe in you
Meta AI forgot the greatest of them all, Catherine the Great. She was in a gilded jail because her mother was spying for Deutschland.
Meta AI
"Here are some Russian leaders who emerged from jail:
- *Nikita Khrushchev*: Khrushchev was imprisoned several times during Stalin's rule, but eventually rose to power after Stalin's death in 1953. He became the Soviet Union's leader from 1953 to 1964 ¹.
- *Joseph Stalin*: Stalin was imprisoned multiple times, including a five-year term in Siberia, before becoming the Soviet Union's leader from 1922 to 1953 ¹.
- *Mikhail Gorbachev*: Although not imprisoned in the classical sense, Gorbachev was placed under house arrest in 1991 during the August Coup. He later became the last Soviet leader, serving from 1985 to 1991 ¹.
These leaders' paths to power were marked by their ability to navigate the complex Soviet political landscape and consolidate power amidst turmoil."
Please ensure Russian dissidents, upon release, cultivate healthy sleep , diet microbiome and aerobic exercise IF ANYONE can pass this on.
Some never end, though. Look at n Korea, for instance.
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😅😅😅Super Power
Odd that my original comment appears to be held back. IDK, if that is UA-cam or Kyiv Post. I expect UA-cam, which is troubling. Is there another platform I can follow Kyiv Post and comment on?
UA-cam are a communist organisation. Their censorship is a fking disgrace..
Q: Who with a lick of common sense puts any stock in any 'Reports' coming from Kyiv sources?
A: There is no such person.
Troll🔔🔔🔔🔔alert@jimyost2585 bad mouthing Ukraine by pretending to be a good guy who is chummy !
Yanocovich n’a pas succès
Wishful thinking 😢😢
No