I started collecting fine wines in the mid 80's. One of the problems for wineries today is that the beer industry started to make upscale beers like Imperial stouts such as Goose Island, etc. and the younger generation could get these and impress their friends for much less than fine wines. Canned liquor drinks are cutting into the market too. The Chinese helped drive up prices too when they became able to become business people. They drove up wildly the 2009 futures prices when their economy was flying high. Not so anymore...
Yep, spot on Tom. My expertise is Spanish wine and very few people there buy international wine. Most supermarkets or wine shops sell nothing else. Foreign wine is for high end restaurants or very serious private connoisseurs. The thing is, Spain seems to be producing more wine that ever. Loads of micro wineries have started especially in the biodynamic market. The big producers have lifted their game too and have excellent entry level wine as well. However, just like everywhere else, fewer people are drinking it domestically and you can buy excellent Spanish wine in Spain for as little as $15 euros a bottle. When I eat out in Spain it's mostly beer on the table. Young people in Spain, and other parts of Europe, are really struggling financially. They can't afford to start families or buy property. Fancy wine is for old people and they are diminishing every year. My Spanish wife and I work in Britain and I work in the voluntary sector with a major charity. I meet a lot of young people and they're not remotely interested in wine. Many of them don't touch alcohol at all. It's not just them though, the vast majority of middle aged people are the same. Most people I work with buy the occasional bottle priced between £5 - £10. Quality wine is a very niche market. The cost of living has gone up and regular folk aren't responding by buying expensive wine, and by that I mean above £15 a bottle. The British wine boom, which started in the 1980's is in full reverse. Most folk will buy cheap wine on fewer occasions and the top end will be for a tiny niche, just as it was in the 80's. I think that's a good indication with what's happening in the world because the British are a big wine consumer and a utilitarian lot; It's alcoholic grape juice at the end of the day. In addition, people like me that buy the great value mid-market know the score. My excellent £40 bottle is only slightly less good than a bottle priced at a ridiculous £150 or more. By the way, I completely agree that the standard of wine has improved dramatically in the past 20 years and it's diversified in an incredible way. Virtually every country and region in Europe is producing consistently excellent wine at good prices. Spanish white wine is taking off and it's excellent. Who would have thought? Lesser know Italian regions with excellent wine makers. Germany, Austria, Greece, Georgia, Turkey, Slovenia, Albania and everything in-between. Serious wine people want to try all those interesting indigenous grape varieties. I think the biodynamic movement is fragmenting the market as well. I see more shops and online retailers specialising in that field. Giant Behemoth wine regions like Bordeaux and Napa, along with their excessive pricing, just seem to me to have their heads in the sand about the world out there,
Really interesting to learn a bit more about the history of the wine industry in the US. The wine market at the moment is, I think, a reflection of the broader economy. If more consumers had more money to spend, the industry would be in a better place. That said, though, other factors you mentioned like health concerns from governments might just mean it’s a changing landscape.
prices and production need to come way down first of all, wineries need to figure out effective marketing to the younger generation, totally agree with all that, there has been too many wineries and labels on the market for years now, throw in a poor economy and nflation and you have the perfect storm to kill wine sales
I live in NYC and there’s still a really good local market for wine here. Tons and tons of boutique wine shops and wine bars, and they’re always full of young people. The only reason I got into wine was from moving to nyc and noticing how many boutique wine shops and wine bars there were near me. Not the same in the rest of the country of course.
Great content as always - really interesting to have your experienced insight! What would your advice be for wine collectors right now? Latest vintage prices are going through the roof while back vintages have some good deals Is the quality going up enough to justify these higher release prices or should i stick to the cheaper bargains?
Hey Chris, good questions and all I can say is that I don't buy it. If sales were dropping I would think the wineries would drop prices but they aren't. This makes no sense.
Yes, this is true. I know some people in the wine business. Sales are declining and this year has been particularly bad for them. I will be doing my part to help when I fo to the shop at the end of my street and pick up a shiraz or cab to go with the braised shortribs I'm eating tonight.
@@FridayFishFacts Well I worked almost five decades in the wine industry and now I am a social influencer on UTube while cashing my bond coupons and dividend checks while attempting to drain my wine cellar before I pass. On occasion I consult for serious wine collectors who need guidance with their wine cellars.
There does seem to be a perfect storm brewing for the wine industry. The youngest Baby Boomers are turning 60 this year so the industry can't rely on them to prop up sales forever. The Millennials and Gen-Z don't seem to have a lot of interest in wine. On top of that, the push away from alcohol in general keeps growing. We are now in Sober October and Dry January is coming up. Cannabis seems to be on the rise over alcohol and that will only increase if and when the federal government reschedules it. Finally, you've got a hollowing out of the middle class that leaves fewer people with the disposable income to purchase mid-priced, let alone higher priced, wines.
As the American economy is destroyed there will be less and less people who have the expendable money to puchase "expensive" wine. This applies for everything that relies on expendable income. Having said this, when a business see that they are overpricing the cunsumer and they do nothing about it, they deserve to go out of business. While you put the price of a "luxury wine" at $150, that is not a price that even slightly above middle class person can afford. The more and more this economy goes down hill and the more and more other types of individuals from other places help in the destruction of the coonomy, the less luxury wines will sell and the lower the price to be considered a luxury wine will go. Having said this, here is a question for you. If the wine industry is doing bad, why aren't the wineries dropping their prices? Go t the website of any winery and you will see the wineries are still charging crazy prices for not only their wines but a simple tasting. As a last thought, if wine sales are down, why are the wineries still charging crazy prices for the same wine you can buy in your local store for a heck of a lot cheaper?
“As the American economy is destroyed” is nonsense. Current vintage prices are not going down because the investment in winemaking continues to go up, largely due to competition. Some wineries will suffer (and be forced to close out wines at break-even or below prices), but that’s the same with any industry. What are you basing your comments on?
$3 a pound of grapes in California where grapes grow like weed!?! It seems every grape-grower wants to be a famous winemaker, so the wine prices have collapsed, and many wineries are now out of business. So the general public is deprived of enjoying one of the nature's most popular and healthiest delicacy - GRAPES! Not too long ago you could buy grapes in season for 50c a pound - the lowest price now days is 3 times as much - $1.50 or more! Whose salary or pension/social security have tripled or quadrupled in the past few years?!? Nobody's!!!
Why are you going back 270 years (!) to find an answer to the suffering wine market?! The answers are simple. One would be (in the CONTEMPORARY world) the fact that Sommeliers would rather display their hierarchy of knowledge than put an understandable spin on how wonderful the beverage is! Secondary to that would be a situation where THERE ARE TOO MANY MIDDLEMEN, AND TOO MANY HANDS IN THE PIE. You figure out how to eliminate those circumstances, and you are off to a great restart! Then you take away the utterly ignorant OWNERS of retail outlets and replace them with friendly knowledgeable owners, and likely fantastic results would occur. Good luck!
I started collecting fine wines in the mid 80's. One of the problems for wineries today is that the beer industry started to make upscale beers like Imperial stouts such as Goose Island, etc. and the younger generation could get these and impress their friends for much less than fine wines. Canned liquor drinks are cutting into the market too. The Chinese helped drive up prices too when they became able to become business people. They drove up wildly the 2009 futures prices when their economy was flying high. Not so anymore...
Yep, spot on Tom. My expertise is Spanish wine and very few people there buy international wine. Most supermarkets or wine shops sell nothing else. Foreign wine is for high end restaurants or very serious private connoisseurs. The thing is, Spain seems to be producing more wine that ever. Loads of micro wineries have started especially in the biodynamic market. The big producers have lifted their game too and have excellent entry level wine as well. However, just like everywhere else, fewer people are drinking it domestically and you can buy excellent Spanish wine in Spain for as little as $15 euros a bottle. When I eat out in Spain it's mostly beer on the table. Young people in Spain, and other parts of Europe, are really struggling financially. They can't afford to start families or buy property. Fancy wine is for old people and they are diminishing every year.
My Spanish wife and I work in Britain and I work in the voluntary sector with a major charity. I meet a lot of young people and they're not remotely interested in wine. Many of them don't touch alcohol at all. It's not just them though, the vast majority of middle aged people are the same. Most people I work with buy the occasional bottle priced between £5 - £10. Quality wine is a very niche market. The cost of living has gone up and regular folk aren't responding by buying expensive wine, and by that I mean above £15 a bottle. The British wine boom, which started in the 1980's is in full reverse. Most folk will buy cheap wine on fewer occasions and the top end will be for a tiny niche, just as it was in the 80's. I think that's a good indication with what's happening in the world because the British are a big wine consumer and a utilitarian lot; It's alcoholic grape juice at the end of the day. In addition, people like me that buy the great value mid-market know the score. My excellent £40 bottle is only slightly less good than a bottle priced at a ridiculous £150 or more.
By the way, I completely agree that the standard of wine has improved dramatically in the past 20 years and it's diversified in an incredible way. Virtually every country and region in Europe is producing consistently excellent wine at good prices. Spanish white wine is taking off and it's excellent. Who would have thought? Lesser know Italian regions with excellent wine makers. Germany, Austria, Greece, Georgia, Turkey, Slovenia, Albania and everything in-between. Serious wine people want to try all those interesting indigenous grape varieties. I think the biodynamic movement is fragmenting the market as well. I see more shops and online retailers specialising in that field. Giant Behemoth wine regions like Bordeaux and Napa, along with their excessive pricing, just seem to me to have their heads in the sand about the world out there,
Thanks to you I am picking young wines from 2023 if I can find it but most 2022 from France and I'm very happy.
Really interesting to learn a bit more about the history of the wine industry in the US. The wine market at the moment is, I think, a reflection of the broader economy. If more consumers had more money to spend, the industry would be in a better place. That said, though, other factors you mentioned like health concerns from governments might just mean it’s a changing landscape.
prices and production need to come way down first of all, wineries need to figure out effective marketing to the younger generation, totally agree with all that, there has been too many wineries and labels on the market for years now, throw in a poor economy and nflation and you have the perfect storm to kill wine sales
I live in NYC and there’s still a really good local market for wine here. Tons and tons of boutique wine shops and wine bars, and they’re always full of young people. The only reason I got into wine was from moving to nyc and noticing how many boutique wine shops and wine bars there were near me. Not the same in the rest of the country of course.
Great content as always - really interesting to have your experienced insight!
What would your advice be for wine collectors right now? Latest vintage prices are going through the roof while back vintages have some good deals
Is the quality going up enough to justify these higher release prices or should i stick to the cheaper bargains?
Hey Chris, good questions and all I can say is that I don't buy it. If sales were dropping I would think the wineries would drop prices but they aren't. This makes no sense.
Yes, this is true. I know some people in the wine business. Sales are declining and this year has been particularly bad for them. I will be doing my part to help when I fo to the shop at the end of my street and pick up a shiraz or cab to go with the braised shortribs I'm eating tonight.
Loving your videos Tom. Can I ask what you do for an occupation?
@@FridayFishFacts Well I worked almost five decades in the wine industry and now I am a social influencer on UTube while cashing my bond coupons and dividend checks while attempting to drain my wine cellar before I pass. On occasion I consult for serious wine collectors who need guidance with their wine cellars.
There does seem to be a perfect storm brewing for the wine industry. The youngest Baby Boomers are turning 60 this year so the industry can't rely on them to prop up sales forever. The Millennials and Gen-Z don't seem to have a lot of interest in wine. On top of that, the push away from alcohol in general keeps growing. We are now in Sober October and Dry January is coming up. Cannabis seems to be on the rise over alcohol and that will only increase if and when the federal government reschedules it. Finally, you've got a hollowing out of the middle class that leaves fewer people with the disposable income to purchase mid-priced, let alone higher priced, wines.
As the American economy is destroyed there will be less and less people who have the expendable money to puchase "expensive" wine. This applies for everything that relies on expendable income. Having said this, when a business see that they are overpricing the cunsumer and they do nothing about it, they deserve to go out of business. While you put the price of a "luxury wine" at $150, that is not a price that even slightly above middle class person can afford. The more and more this economy goes down hill and the more and more other types of individuals from other places help in the destruction of the coonomy, the less luxury wines will sell and the lower the price to be considered a luxury wine will go. Having said this, here is a question for you. If the wine industry is doing bad, why aren't the wineries dropping their prices? Go t the website of any winery and you will see the wineries are still charging crazy prices for not only their wines but a simple tasting. As a last thought, if wine sales are down, why are the wineries still charging crazy prices for the same wine you can buy in your local store for a heck of a lot cheaper?
“As the American economy is destroyed” is nonsense. Current vintage prices are not going down because the investment in winemaking continues to go up, largely due to competition. Some wineries will suffer (and be forced to close out wines at break-even or below prices), but that’s the same with any industry. What are you basing your comments on?
Do you think NAPA should sell their portfolio?- Duckhorn etc?
$3 a pound of grapes in California where grapes grow like weed!?! It seems every grape-grower wants to be a famous winemaker, so the wine prices have collapsed, and many wineries are now out of business. So the general public is deprived of enjoying one of the nature's most popular and healthiest delicacy - GRAPES! Not too long ago you could buy grapes in season for 50c a pound - the lowest price now days is 3 times as much - $1.50 or more! Whose salary or pension/social security have tripled or quadrupled in the past few years?!? Nobody's!!!
Why are you going back 270 years (!) to find an answer to the suffering wine market?! The answers are simple. One would be (in the CONTEMPORARY world) the fact that Sommeliers would rather display their hierarchy of knowledge than put an understandable spin on how wonderful the beverage is! Secondary to that would be a situation where THERE ARE TOO MANY MIDDLEMEN, AND TOO MANY HANDS IN THE PIE. You figure out how to eliminate those circumstances, and you are off to a great restart! Then you take away the utterly ignorant OWNERS of retail outlets and replace them with friendly knowledgeable owners, and likely fantastic results would occur. Good luck!