TROPICAL UPDATE: This Tropical Storm Will Become A Hurricane...
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- Опубліковано 22 вер 2024
- In this tropical weather update, I'm getting quite concerned about Invest 97L, which will likely become our next significant tropical storm or hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Could 97L become a formidable major hurricane in 4-5 days? We'll discuss all of that in today's video.
Video Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:31 - 97L Quickly Organizing
2:17 - High Chance Of Formation
3:01 - How Strong Will 97L Get?
10:25 - Mega Surf (50+ Foot Waves)
12:01 - Serious Rain Totals
13:37 - Spaghetti Plots
14:34 - SHIPS Showing A Cat. 3
15:59 - 930 mbar Major Hurricane?
17:18 - Serious Ocean Heat Content
19:12 - Outro/Promotion
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Hello David. So glad to see you back on UA-cam. I followed you years ago and missed you. You know your stuff and you helped us thru Irma and Ian in SW Florida! Keep up the good work.
What’s up I so recognize you how’s everything love seeing you here leaving nice comments 😊❤💓
Hey David I feel concerned about you. Why didn’t you upload a video yesterday? No one is able to satisfy every single person in the weather community, and on UA-cam, and that’s totally okay. It’s not a reason for you to quit. In fact, all the people who think that you’re “fear mongering” likely think that it’s impossible for the hurricane to get that strong. One day a hurricane will come and they will think you’re fear mongering and it becomes far stronger than what they expected. Just keep going, and you will build a dedicated audience for your channel.
I was at a funeral and so after waking up at 5am yesterday, working for 9 hours then going to a funeral 25 miles away, I was super tired last night but I'm back in full swing for the next 8+ days. Also yeah I feel like their jealous of me but belive me there sometimes is a reason to fear monger when 97L will be tranvering 30-32 C waters.
I dont see it as fear mongering. I really appreciate what you are doing for us. Thank you for your service. You have my condolences. @WeatherForce2024
@@bhavigpointi4035 David called Hurricane Michael, a Cat 5, almost 48 hours before anyone else! Because of him, we got the house ready and evacuated. Most Agencies blew it!
@@celestebenson3519 I try to get things correct far out in advanced but sometimes I can’t get everything 100% correct that’s why I’m really careful and the choice of words that I choose but sometimes I have to risk and bite the bullet and go a little over the top, especially with this system.
@@WeatherForce2024Your forecasts are so spot on! I am in Panama City, FL. When this system came to my attention, I sought out your take on it! I have never thought you were over the top. Tropical systems are something to be prepared for, and afraid, of!
Good luck from ATL GA to the people near the coast of this hurricane.
@@BineBeamNG-rd5fv No luck only prayers.
@@BineBeamNG-rd5fv from Atlanta as well I’m concerned for the severe weather
@@Oggabogga420 yeah
I like the way you cover the weather and have been watching your vids for the last few weeks. Thanks for all you do from Louisiana.
Your so sweet thanks brother, i try my best but sometime I'll admit I do go overboard sometimes.
How are you David? Great weather forecast once again! Keep up the great work man. Don't delete your youtube channel!
I'm not going to delete my youtube channel after seeing the votes.
Very good updates. Videos are just the right length/duration to provide all scenarios and model runs.
Thanks Javier, i try to keep the videos around 16-21 minutes at best.
Another good forcast , no punches pulled and straight up with the facts , on the north east coasts we listen to you rather closely 😊 and talk about the charts with your interpretation, good job David 😊
Thanks, i try to get to the facts quickly and look over model data.
@@WeatherForce2024 well it looks like you do have a good weather eye 👁🗨 not just an eye on the weather
i really like how you describe the weather keep it up
Thanks so much. I'll try to keep it up as long as the hate can just stay at bay.
Glad to see you. Welcome back 🙏
More to come!
Thank you so much. I was not planning to leave UA-cam, but it was just a threat, because of the jealous trolls.
Great update David, thank you! You did great!
Thanks for watching! I always appreciate it
Nice job David.
Thanks.
Amazing update David
Thank you so much and again I love your profile picture the crazy face emoji. 🤪
Hey David, from the information I’ve gathered the high pressure ridge isn’t as strong as previously anticipated. Therefore the track could shift slightly more eastward in the next few model runs. The Euro and German models have adjusted to the ridge, but the GFS hasn’t quite caught up yet. We’re having an emergency management meeting tomorrow morning in Savannah, this came up pretty quickly and it’s predicted that we could get the dirty side of the storm.
Yeah we'll see the system is in the beginnings of forming and the next 2 or 3 runs will be very telling where this will actually end up at.
Hey David! The convective and rotation on the latest frames are starting to scare me, the LLC could consolidate faster than expected… Also the gfs is a lot more aggressive than I thought. Hopefully not, but a major hurricane is increasing being a possibility. But anyways nice to see u back david❤
Oh yeah i'm watching it unfold on the IR and getting -90 to -95C cloud tops.
Oh my lord! Whoever gets that 35 foot storm surge ! It's gonna wipe some areas off the map. If something like that was to hit here (Not likely), near Indian Rocks Beach FL, it would take out most of Indian Rocks FL. Clearwater beach and St Pete Beach and would be destroyed. OY! I am praying already.
Those are off shore waves,typical.
That is not storm surge,that comes on shore.
I miss talking to you David 😢 all though I finally got some rain last night wasn’t much at all but I will take what i can get at this point
My cats said no more windy sky-water this year, please.
55 feet waves that could be devastating if this would manifest
yeah but 35 to a least 40 feet seems more reasonable for now.
This reminds me of Michael
oh yeas it does, i really did not think of that actually.
Bring it on Baby, Florida is ready
@@JohnSchmitt3rd shhhhhhhh we still got flooding issues from Debby!
Florida is not ready, you do remember Debbie right? A lot of people lost their homes and cars behind the flooding . We are not ready…
@@MyAdrian32no matter what, it’s coming. Prepared or not
@JohnSchmitt3rd
If Florida isn't ready after the past few hurricane seasons, then no wonder insurance companies are shutting up shop and leaving..
No we aren’t. Have you seen insurance rates under DeSantis?
We are geeting alot of rain here in 🇯🇲 thank you for your update
Well that means system is in a very moist envirmoment.
Thanks for the update..gotta restock my hurricane🌀 kit
yes you sure do, be prepard and don't be scared.
It’s looking like it could be very bad. 3 days now in the Caribbean we have amost no wind at all. At night it’s dead wind at 0 mph. The heat here feels like hell. God help the area in the USA that may get hit.
Yeah this in my opinion has a high celining of category 4 with winds topping out at 145 mph.
@@WeatherForce2024 if it comes near my area you have my permission to use any storm video I upload. I'd like to donate it to your channel
Great job relaying to us 🫶🏽
your welcome.
It’ll shift east more with the low coming down
Hi mate I love you update
Thanks.
It reminds me of IVAN.
That's not a good sign at all.
Keep us posted in the Cayman Islands David 😮
I will. Going live tonight maybe at 7 or 8:30 pm PDT.
LETS PRAU GUYS THAT IS THE LEAST DANGEROUS
Same here becuase the hurricane season is not over and look what we maybe dealing with. A category 3 or 4.
I don’t think that’s going to help. I’m a Christian, but I don’t think there will be a weak storm. It just isn’t likely.
Yes mate do more videos
I'm doing more videos.
I seriously hope fort Myers doesn't get smashed again
same here.
This going to be a Cat 4
☠💀
I have a question that I cannot find an answer for anywhere if anyone might have some answers or theories on! Theoretically speaking, If you have a hurricane form in the gulf and heads towards western Florida and then another hurricane form in the main development region and heads directly towards eastern Florida and both hurricanes are set to hit at roughly the same time, what would happen? Would the Fujiwhara effect set in and cause both to almost just spin over and below Florida? Would it form into one over land? Would they bounce off each other and shift patterns? What would people in Florida experience while this was happening? THEORETICALLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN!?!?
@Wabby21 great theoretical question!
I would be getting the heck out of dodge if in the path of this monster.
lol these storms are a joke in most cases.. were used to it.. going nowhere
Only if you live by the water. Otherwise you don’t have to.
Glad to see you let hear the truth and nothing but the truth Trinidad feeling like you in the oven I hope we can get some rain no gll. Flood because I will have to tie everything on to the ceiling well u keep yourself safe blessings man ❤❤❤❤
I have a bad feeling about this.
Same here.
I'm from jax, fl..we have had a tremendous amount of rain in the past 3wks...I'm afraid I'm gonna need a kayak...lol
Oh gosh yes, and guess what more is coming. 😢
this storm will reach CAT 4. It has nothing in its way.
shear and dry air?
@@jamal1292Shear will be at an angle where it will enhance the outflow, it won’t really affect it when it is closer to landfall. Dry air wont be a problem when it gets closer to landfall.
Remember if you say tropical storm you're a hero, if you say it's slightly possible to be a cat 4, you're a hater and fear mongerer.
DJ that hurricane is going to Florida .not texas
Is homestead, FL gonna feel impacts from this
@@ItzJeffyRBLX Probably not.
Yep☺️👍🙏
I have a really bad feeling about this...
Why?
@@MsPeachesization , just a feeling
Wave heights showing up to 30 FT!!!!!!!
Or more. Had to finish your sentance.
@@WeatherForce2024 yeah or more!! Can’t image what the live cameras may look like when this hits!!
@@SevereStormFilmer Oh yeah i'm sure if this does indeed become a category 3 or 4 storm surge could reach heights of 12-18 feet.
Im in the target cone David
Oh great, this system could be really bad.
Debby 2.0 hit Fla ride Carolina coast
Let's hope the euro is right.
new subscriber
Thanks for subscribing brother.
We're back 👏
Thinkfully after looking over 500+ vots 95% of them say to keep doing me.
This is reminding me of ian. Do you think it will take the same track or even more of a southern turn?
It’s gonna take a similar path, but I do see this going a little further north than Ian
Hey David, do you see a chance that East turn swings the eye towards Tampa? I've seen jogs and wobbles in these storms, just saying! High population density here of hardened locals! Any thoughts?
If the trend east continue, it could very well impact Tampa.
@@WeatherForce2024 gotcha! Keeping my eyes on this with you!!!
I'm in Largo towards Indian Rocks Beach. My ears are surely pricked right now. Can you even imagine what 35 foot storm surge would do to us and Tampa, St Pete, Clearwater etc. Omg! It would wipe huge areas off the map. Whoever get this storm, I am already praying for them.
@@janalaufer6965 I completely agree, these early predictions ad to people's complacincy. A slight change can make a huge difference! By the way, I love IRB!!!
Alabama
Is there a chance that Helene could move westward toward new orleans?
It's a slim possibility, but likely east of New Orleans.
Do you think this thing will curve harder east if it does take the gfs look, the front is coming down, bath water in the gulf, the shear from the front may actually make things worse.
Hi David ❤
hello, how's everything.
Watching from navarre florida panhandle near pensacola
Reporting the bullies and trolls 🧌
Thanks sweet heart, you earn a mod. Can't do it until my next stream.
That gfs model looks really bad. Really hoping that one's not going to pan out.
Yeah, this is looking really scary and I got told the 18Z run is an as reliable as the 12Z and 0Z. That’s why I’m not including the 18z run in my videos for the time being.
Can’t be as much of a fear monger as weatherman plus. His clickbait scary thumbnails tells the whole story. What a joke.
Do you mean, mine or actually weatherman plus’s I’m a bit confused here. 🤔
@@WeatherForce2024 Don't pay no mind to the naysayers, they don't have anything to bring to the table but to criticize. Iv'e lived thru several major hurricanes on the gulf coast of Florida. With Michael being the worst, some of us appreciate you and weatherman plus, keep learning and doing what you feel will help people that could possibly be impacted by these systems.
Cat 2? Is that what you are saying? Confused.
Hard to say,it's early
Right now, my forecast calls for it to become a Cat. 2 to maybe a Cat. 4 Hurricane.
I predict it to be a cat 4 or 5
Hey I live in Montgomery Alabama should I be worried
Are the wave heights peak-to-peak or amplitude?
i believe so, but it's also significant wave height.
Of course it will impact PCBeach. I was going to go there next week
It’s not 1,000,000% certain yet, but in a general idea is east of mobile, AL
👍
🌧☔️
I’m moving to a new house in Florida we may have to cancel the move because of this storm
You just may have too unfornatly
I live in Miami what impacts could we see? This is a broad system
Gusty winds and many rain bands.
@@WeatherForce2024 so no 🌪 risks?
What is considered a major hurricane? Everyone has been talking about this system for what. ..10 days or more!!!
@@dwayneyambra1865 Category 3 or higher
3+ like this
Major hurricane is classified as a Category 3 or higher
Just stay away from Space Coast and all will be good. I do not want to put hurricane shutters up.
Why don't all these trolls actually learn about the weather and make their own channels? You're doing a great job.. report and delete the 🧌
I know right because I know what I’m looking for and that’s a great thing about me. Believe me, I don’t like to hype in fear monger, but sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and raise the alarm bell. 🔔 😊
Did I miss the AI model prediction?
It's similar but wanted to keep this under 20 min.
@@WeatherForce2024Thanks! Next update could you please show it? I believe that it has been really accurate for the past few storms. Most of the weather forecasters do not show it. Probably because it is accurate so far out it would give y’all less to report. 😂 Thanks for what you do and sharing your knowledge with people willing to listen.
The ai missed this storm a few days ago by about 500 miles. So not always that accurate. Ai changes just like the other models.
1st and could this make landfall on texas?
Nope. not likely now.
Pcola here😢
Howdy neighbor 👋
I didnt enjoy it one bit 😂 im in pcola and this is terrifying 😢
Why did you not enjoyed the video, I did pretty good.
@@WeatherForce2024probably because its headed for them.
@WeatherForce2024 I think it was an insult to the storm, not you, you did good.
"Not much rain in central florida". Then "Orlando really getting hit". 🙄 This is all central florida ! I am confused.
Rainfall totals are for model guidance and is not an actual amount of that’s gonna fall, but get it prepared for rain and gusty winds.
❤
😱
Sounds loke no school for centrul FL
Well, all I gotta say is follow your local officials. And if your school district is closed, then it’s closed.
@@WeatherForce2024 yep that's all we can do
So much illiteracy it's incomprehensible.
From whom?
Fla weather guy says it has a "medium chance" .. whatever that means.
It has a high chance.
30 mph knocks down trees??🤣😂😂
surface winds of 30 don't gut gusts of 45-55 mph do.
Actually 25-35mph sustained winds can knock down trees. And I have years of experience with this type of information because I’m a director of communications and intellectual property management with CEMA or Chatham County Emergency Management Agency in Savannah Georgia
Especially over water saturated ground.@@gregd4633
Where did they dig it up this pseudo weatherman from? There must be a machine somewhere that mass produces these clowns. UA-cam is saturated with them.
How do y'all know where it's going if it haven't formed yet
what hasn't formed? There is a low pressure area now.
@@roxannehudson7410 jet stream tells hurricanes where to go
He doesn't know. Just speculation.
Uhhh, science.
oh here we go.. we're all gonna die
no your not just get prepard.
Love The fear mongering
@jamesknotts8029 literally a hurricane that's gonna hit usa. Small brain huh james?
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Aight bro so what this gonna be a weak category 1? Yeah right bozo
☠💀
You pay homeowners insurance?