Investing in Collectibles: An Index that tracks Collectibles Does NOT Work and Never Will!
Вставка
- Опубліковано 22 сер 2024
- Welcome back to Reserved Investments! In this video we talk about why index (or plural form: indices) geared towards antiques and collectibles or individual collecting categories, never have worked over the long term and never will! We quote specific paragraphs from an excellent article written by now retried collectibles expert Harry Rinker to prove this point. Here is a link to the article in question:
www.harryrinke...
Email for Antique/Collectible Consulting Services: ReservedInvestments@gmail.com
Patreon: / reservedinvestments
Disclaimer: Videos are not intended to provide direct financial advice. Please don't get your financial advice from a dude recording videos in his basement office at like 1 AM EST.
Kindly remember that I am just a figment of your imagination and am not really here.
I love the long videos and hate to see them end. If you don’t like it then don’t watch, turn off when you want or play on 2x. Never understood the complaint of a video being too long.
100% agree. There's some people out there with terrible attention spans.
Thanks to this channel, I gave up on collectibles and started investing in a total market index fund
Screw those smartass fools, I want long form videos from you! Keep it classy Sean!
Great Video Shawn - funny enough I'm one of those guys that made a Comic Book Index 😁. But I present it as just information and nothing more - reminding people that it's not a perfect system. It has been very helpful though, with it I was able to show people back in 2022 that it was looking like all comic values were going to crash back down to their pre-pandemic prices. Now I just keep it up as a way to temperature check where FMV's are (still heading down).
You were the first person I thought of when I saw the title of this video.
I think Swag your index is still directional and helps
Your index has valuable info. The first thing you did was separate into Gold, Silver and Bronze and choose books, which Shawn acts like it's an impossible first task. Indexes are tools and claiming they are worthless is like claiming a paintbrush is useless because it won't hammer a nail.
@kennygee, I’ll tell you what. For the next ten years, you invest in the comic book index and I’ll invest in the S&P 500 index.
Don't worry about what I'm doing Shawn, I don't put myself 100% out there for ego points. Go to the gym.
Its only worth what someone is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to sell it at or let it go for
"Speculative emotional assets at best.". Took me a dozen times to hear it from you over the years, but it just hit me today. Thank you!
I can sit and watch hours of Reserved Investment videos and never get bored :)
Glad I found this man a few months back, I stopped collecting comics and Pokemon..thank you, probably saved me a lot of money keep up the good work!!
took. a hiatus from YT but im back to watch your stuff!
This might be the best picture quality I’ve seen in a YT video, wow!
I love the long videos as well , I work 12 hour shifts and I like to listen while working. Makes my shift go by faster.
Shawn you should be a movie star!
Nope - i think he would be better suited for a tv show
Are we talking rated G like Disney, R like pulp fiction or XXX like Ron Jeremy 🤔
😳🤔😂
Excellent VIDEO !!!! 👍
Shawn is the Goat 🐐
You make it , I'll watch it . 15 min, 1 hour, 2 hours. I don't care. Your knowledge is beyond valuable. And it's FREE. Thanks Shawn. 👍
Glad you mentioned Evolving Skies. 😂 Had TWO Pokémon investors this week telling me that Pokémon is less risky than real estate. 😬
Longer the better, 30 minute videos are my favourite
Keep with the longer videos or go shorter - so far they’ve all been worth watching 👍. Great stuff Shawn; maybe the best info on YT right now. Thank you!
Eating a stale donut while I’m watching 😅
Great video as usual, Shawn!
Interesting...I just watched a video of a very popular modern sports card index...and the content creator said when a player "fizzles out" or "loses relevance", they simply DROP them from the index.
It would seem to me That would create a rubber ruler, never actually measuring anything and always giving a favorable result, removing the lowest performers.
It may work a little better with vintage if you can get a consensus group of established hall of famers at an often transacted grade ,at least to give an idea of how the market is doing. Swagglehaus seems to do this pretty well with comics.....but all the same imperfections exist as outlined in this video. And can only vaguely gage the higher volume sales grades, leaving out the high end truly rare market.
Makes me think of an interview with Nick Cage. When he was at the height of his career he blew all his cash on all insane & diverse stuff including Art, yachts, cars collectables, a island & even a Dinosaur skull. He went bankrupt and was forced to sell. Apparently literally the only thing that made him a profit was his Action Comics #1 ( $2,161,000)
Lots to unpack here and I agree with some points, disagree with others. Creating an index is very difficult for all the reasons you mention (what to include, what weighting to give, how to account for infrequent transactions, what grade to use). No index will be perfect, but they are a good way to gauge general market interest and trends, especially over longer periods of time. For that reason, I also think indexes are more useful when they are more targeted to show how trends and preferences change within a collectibles market (for comics, different indexes can track: silver age first appearances, Christ Claremont X-Men run, Amazing Spider-Man villains, Todd McFarlane covers, etc.).
Anyone complaining about your free and informative content deserves to lose all of their money
Bloomberg attempted to do a stamp index about 10 years ago. Ask that category how that went xD
I think this was a better video format
Now I didn't have a problem with what you did before but
Introduction - say what it is!
Body - say why
Conclusion...
This was a great video! Well explained in an easy to follow manner and backed up by facts.
I've always felt this way about collectible indexes. Way too many variables for anything to be anywhere near accurate with values let alone being all encompassing.
I really hope more people catch on to your channel and heed the important messages and warnings that you deliver. Too many people are caught up in hype. They think it will all last forever. I lived through the sports card bubble of the 90s. That did not end well. May you be the hand that slaps the rose-colored glasses off their faces, haha.
Not indexing, but I have graphed out a particular rare coin in XF-45 condition to gauge what I should pay for it. I was interested in the PCGS index because I was wondering about the old Solomon Brothers index but seeing the coins in the index I didn’t think it would be of any help to me.
Got to admit the longer I watch this channel, the less I want to have anything to do with collectibles. I probably have too many coins and should divest.
Indexes are not meant to predict the future. They are supposed to chart the past. Analysts can use the components to try to predict the future but that has risks whether in soybeans or comic books. By using an index on historical prices it will tell you how to weight an investment portfolio and diversify risk, for example.
Watching Shawn's short videos reminds me of the nes game, Trojan. It was fun, but disappointing after beating Achilles so easily. I'm like, that's it??
Great info as always 👍🏼
Depeche mode 👍
I think you have the melody right, but you may have been thinking of "Everything counts in large amounts"
Thank you very much
I think you should change the title to: "Index-based investing in collectibles...." Indices are just data, snapshots if you will, and they are useful in proportion to the skills of the index-maker. They are useful in that they can tell you what is happening in a certain market segment, but not if you are going to invest in everything in that index.
I feel highly disrespected by having that sticky note on the Lucas amiibo... Lucas doesnt deserve that. 😢
Shawn would you consider a video on your thoughts about the collectibility of Manga? It seems to have a lot of the traits of other collectibles but is not yet highly collected.
Possibly…
Always enjoy
We have an index though. At least a serviceable one. The internet, its collection of auction sites, and a search bar.
That’s not an index.
I do follow the Card Ladder 50 index in sports trading cards.. they are only the big name players pre war vintage and modern…. I own alot of the cards in that index so I watch it as my collection of sports cards have many of the cards in that index...
Index or no index rare coins will always be rare and it should not be hard to see that or create a fair market price index that is what is missing in the coin market
Wealthy people collect property and businesses.
Take a shot every time he says "antiques and collectibles trade"
The people who have been collecting for years and bought cheap will win when the boom happens. If you buy after the boom begins you've already lost. Pretty easy.
Can you explain what it means for an index to “work” ? Is it to monitor values of the items in the index? Or buy into that collection of commodities at a dollar cost average?
Investopedia is your friend for this one. 😉
@@ReservedInvestments by that definition- index fund is impossible to build because it’s impossible to represent the market. I’d agree. Maybe lots of these people using the index word incorrectly- are really referring to a price tracker. Collectables market is so opaque that you cannot accurately represent it. ❤
Notice the difference of the use of Smartass instead of Timmy.
Gotta say something pretty special to break the Timmy/Smartass barrier.
I love data, and would like to see more people listen to the data. But too many ignore all but the trending data and its a fast way to lose your suit, shirt, and shit.
They should create pokemon etf, collectibles etf snd other. It is like a very successful Bitcoin etf this year
The US ratio of total stock market cap over GDP stays on 182%, where is the underlying cash flow that justifies this level? Why should it be less risky?
Incorrect question. You actually have ownership in something through stocks that directly correlates to cash flows.
Next Episode: This Hammer Won't Screw In A Screw: Why Hammers Do Not Work and Never Will. An Index is a tool and is only useless in hands that don't know how to use it.
The fundamentals of an index of collectibles is not the same as the fundamentals of a financial index. No collectible index has worked over the long term. Don’t take my word for it, please do your own research.
Iv spent hundreds of thousands on art and collectibles and I don’t know if in 15 or 20 years they will be worth anything 🤷🏻♂️I, throw money around like I’m rich, I’m not just came into money and spent it stupidly or did I 🤷🏻♂️
Finger on the pulse! .. 5:02 So, would you say $1.5m was/is actually the upper limit price for a WATA 9.8 A++ graded Super Mario Bros 64? 😆
It is possible, here I'd where you are wrong. With FINANCIAL indexes they are rebalanced yearly or multi yearly dropping LAGGING STOCKS FOR WINNERS. if you did the same in Collectibles it would work just the same, keeping winning assets while chopping off the loser ones.
As an experiment go back to just when you started investing or better yet the 1999 tech boom. Use the same stocks in the INDEXES from those times for today Vs the stocks in them today. It would be a HORROR SHOW Brother. That's just common sense in my opinion lol.
You know what billionaire bill gates collects? ..... Farms
Why don't you just come out and say, "You should only become a collector if you like the stuff yourself." You could be the last person to pay the most for it and unless you like it, you could realistically take a loss on these or they remain stagnant.
Because it’s already assumed. This is a collectibles finance channel, and you can invest in these items, provided you understand the basics. Most people however, do not understand the finance side of the trade.
@@ReservedInvestments considering the comments you reply to in your videos I don't think you can assume anything about your viewers.
Curious here, Sean. Do you find the Dow Jones Industrial Average equally suspect? Also arbitrary in the same way you mention. Why or why not?
No, this is even explained in the video. In fact, most of my net worth is tied up in index funds.
@@ReservedInvestments I understand the difference as you see it is underlying cash flows? Of course that doesn't speak to the concept of indexing specifically.
I'll listen to an hour long video.
The longer the video, the less time spent searching for the next one
maybe its the pensylvania accent but it is pronounced foo gay zi :)
Wow… first!
Wait, I thought a certain MTG investing channel stated sealed product must always increase in value due to a mature index of value growth! ;-) Even reserved list cards in MTG will plummet in value eventually.......when the game is no longer popular.