I personally don't find forward PE's to be reliable, especially towards the end of a hawkish period. LOVE the breakdown of what forces bond yields to rise.
Thank you for your videos mate.... With Trump's presidency, economic shifts are expected to be significant, especially given the current recession and the potential impact of future rate cuts. Although rate cuts might not boost inflation as hoped, they may lead banks to further restrict consumer and corporate lending, contributing to a deflationary period for various assets. This environment could result in declining stock values, retail and housing sales, and rising unemployment due to layoffs. For investors, a diversified portfolio especially with stocks and cryptocurrencies offers some protection, serving as a hedge amid volatility. Both long- and short-term trading strategies can help manage risks, providing stability as markets adjust. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
Risk/reward being long TLT (long dated US Treasuries) isn't good right now. Yes we have disinflationary forces but also a highly stimulative oncoming administration, Fee put ready and waiting for ANY signs of downturns and record low (percentage) of long terminal treasury issuance. If you're risk off short dated T-Bills much of the safer and in high demand (regardless what economy does).
Unfortunately, we keep using "the government" and "the Fed" as trustworthy sources of precise conveyance of economic conditions. I'll be tuning in with interest when Andy comes back on in May/June 2025. Good luck all!
The fed follows the 2 year treasury. The 10 year is based on growth and inflation expectations of participants in the bond market. Volker may have “increased rates” in the 80’s but the market itself is what caused long term rates to increase and slow down the economy to get inflation under control. The 10 year also increased after the fed cut rates in 2007/2008 and inflation was at around 5.2% where people were saying “inflation is back”. We then had deflation within a year.
YES!!! That's exactly her name (Celia Dullpher ) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia
You want a continuation of the last 15 years of a distorted financial system . We need to get back to reality . A long slow grind that could take as long to unwind as it did to get here .
If the fed were the only purchaser of debt, sure. Look at the tail of the last several bond auctions. It's been getting harder and harder to issue long-term debt. I think at this point any QE gets more than offset by flight from dollar denominated debt due to inflation risk
@@deseosuho The lack of buyers means the big players know the Fed is serious about normalised rates. Buying 30 year paper it inviting a SVB type disaster .
I would advice Trump to eliminate income taxes for bottom 90% Will stimulate private demand > making US market access more valuable in trade n tarriff negotiations Will boost inflation temporarily but will be balanced out by deflation resulting from cuts in govt spending (DOGE.) Will make Repubs more popular n help them win 2028 elections.
I think selling MSTR Bitcoin will not be a light decision and would have strong rationale behind it as Jack rightly pointed out it’s Saylors branding and credibility in the line.
It's backed by the belief of the people who hold it. I own exactlt one for the same reason I own 10z of gold: as a fallback asset for a particular catastrophic possible future.
I'm new to trading and it's not gone well so far - I've lost a chunk of money trying out strategies from UA-cam and that. If you've got any tips or advice, I'd really appreciate it.
As a beginner, having a mentor is crucial for accountability and guidance. My CFA Sarah Jane Braunshausen is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
I personally don't find forward PE's to be reliable, especially towards the end of a hawkish period. LOVE the breakdown of what forces bond yields to rise.
Great show. Highlight? Jack saying Andy looks more like Ben Bernanke than your average bloke 🤣
Not only the Netherlands but also France, Germany and Belgium have long term fixed rate mortgages. 25years fixed rate are the norm here in Belgium.
Thanks Jack...great interview and information on the complex bond market.
53:00 When I was a kid I dreamt of owning convertible cars. Now I am old and I buy convertible bonds!
Andy is clear thinking as always. Thanks for inviting him on. Never heard him expressing his view on BTC. Looks *almost orange pilled
Why so many jump cuts around 59:00 when he's explaining the components of the MSTR converts?
Great interview. Always enjoy learning from Andy and you are well prepared as always
An intelligent discussion. Thanks guys.
Thank you for your videos mate.... With Trump's presidency, economic shifts are expected to be significant, especially given the current recession and the potential impact of future rate cuts. Although rate cuts might not boost inflation as hoped, they may lead banks to further restrict consumer and corporate lending, contributing to a deflationary period for various assets. This environment could result in declining stock values, retail and housing sales, and rising unemployment due to layoffs. For investors, a diversified portfolio especially with stocks and cryptocurrencies offers some protection, serving as a hedge amid volatility. Both long- and short-term trading strategies can help manage risks, providing stability as markets adjust. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
@Serenwintersun
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
Always backup your trading with a good strategy.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
It doesn't matter if you are a current holder or a newbie, you can capitalize on the fluctuation of bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals.
Adding value and Insightful As always
Thanks Andy 👌🏻
the only thing i learned here is that i should take my entire portfolio and go levered long MSTR
To move from a trailing p/e of 28 to a forward of 22 implies 27% earnings growth. This one is surely tee'd up for some disappointment.
Risk/reward being long TLT (long dated US Treasuries) isn't good right now. Yes we have disinflationary forces but also a highly stimulative oncoming administration, Fee put ready and waiting for ANY signs of downturns and record low (percentage) of long terminal treasury issuance. If you're risk off short dated T-Bills much of the safer and in high demand (regardless what economy does).
Unfortunately, we keep using "the government" and "the Fed" as trustworthy sources of precise conveyance of economic conditions. I'll be tuning in with interest when Andy comes back on in May/June 2025. Good luck all!
thanks
The fed follows the 2 year treasury. The 10 year is based on growth and inflation expectations of participants in the bond market. Volker may have “increased rates” in the 80’s but the market itself is what caused long term rates to increase and slow down the economy to get inflation under control.
The 10 year also increased after the fed cut rates in 2007/2008 and inflation was at around 5.2% where people were saying “inflation is back”. We then had deflation within a year.
my advice to everyone is this, saving is great but investment is the key to be successful imagine investing $15,000 and received $301,500
HOW !! I know it's possible, I would appreciate if you show me how to go about
Celia Dullpher expertise is truly commendable.
She has this skill of making complex crypto concepts easy to understand.
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
YES!!! That's exactly her name (Celia Dullpher ) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?"
Wouldn’t QE help bring bond yields down?
You want a continuation of the last 15 years of a distorted financial system . We need to get back to reality . A long slow grind that could take as long to unwind as it did to get here .
If the fed were the only purchaser of debt, sure. Look at the tail of the last several bond auctions. It's been getting harder and harder to issue long-term debt. I think at this point any QE gets more than offset by flight from dollar denominated debt due to inflation risk
@@deseosuho The lack of buyers means the big players know the Fed is serious about normalised rates. Buying 30 year paper it inviting a SVB type disaster .
I would advice Trump to eliminate income taxes for bottom 90%
Will stimulate private demand > making US market access more valuable in trade n tarriff negotiations
Will boost inflation temporarily but will be balanced out by deflation resulting from cuts in govt spending (DOGE.)
Will make Repubs more popular n help them win 2028 elections.
MSTR already traded at a discount and he did not sell the BTC, doesnt mean he wont in the future, but just for completeness...
I think selling MSTR Bitcoin will not be a light decision and would have strong rationale behind it as Jack rightly pointed out it’s Saylors branding and credibility in the line.
"I'm not saying it, I'm only implying it." :P
The world is going mad calling BTC a hard asset. Its digital. It can be debased as easy as anything. It’s already being regulated and debased.
It's backed by the belief of the people who hold it. I own exactlt one for the same reason I own 10z of gold: as a fallback asset for a particular catastrophic possible future.
I'm new to trading and it's not gone well so far - I've lost a chunk of money trying out strategies from UA-cam and that. If you've got any tips or advice, I'd really appreciate it.
As a beginner, having a mentor is crucial for accountability and guidance. My CFA Sarah Jane Braunshausen is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Please educate me. I've come across this name before. Now I am interested. How can I reach her?
This is correct, Sarah strategy has normalized winning trades for me also, and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
Yes, I agree with you. Her platform is wonderful, and her strategies are exceptional
Trading can be really frustrating for most people when they're first starting out. But there are definitely some effective ways to do it.
Save in Bitcoin and invest in MSTR! 💯🎯