To Tell The Truth: A dive into the labor market data
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- Опубліковано 13 чер 2024
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How the labor market is doing is critical to the Fed’s setting of monetary policy given its dual mandate to steer the economy away from both too-high unemployment and too-high inflation. But gauging how the labor market is doing can be a stumper: Two different employment indicators point in different directions. … Less ambivalent are the indicators of wage inflation: All point to continued moderation. … We believe the labor market has been normalizing to its pre-pandemic state and remains robust. But what the Fed makes of the labor data and may do in response is another stumper. We’d like to see it keep monetary policy as is for now.
Thank you for this program! Much appreciated.
people forget about dreaming about lower rates. They're generally going higher from now on because of all the problems and printing to money to pacify those problems. Increasing inflation+generally increasing rates are the future!
I'm thankful for having learned here / and on the Yardeni Charts how to read and approach all the employment BLS/JOLTS stats:)
A date stamp would be helpful to understand when this video was recorded.
Ed six months from now on that last chart..."Look, it's the Roaring 2020s, and we've been below 5% since..."
The data speculated in this video is already released. Seems like this video was recorded a week ago but posted on UA-cam in the last few hours. Dated data.
That's how it works. If you are subscriber to Yardeni's service then you get it at the start of the week. It's free on YT at the end of the week.
I wonder if Max thinks were goin to 5600 on the S&P by the end of the year? Or if that would be kinda expensive.
This video included a bull being skeptical of current SP500 valuations
Mr. Yardeni first you say that you expect inflation to be less than 2% by year end then you show us charts with record personal income and you couple that by stating that you expect strong retail sales ,also you point out that lower wage worker earning are up ( they usually spend more of their income for obvious reasons) - and we have 4% wage inflation. Further you mention the need for additional governmental spending for the flood of migrants. The very same migrants who probably cause the deflationary effect on your beloved unit labor cost. So while the ULC may be deflating the number of laborers is increasing by 20,000,000 in the shortest time ever. Either you assume that they will spend no money and thus contribute nothing to inflation or maybe that is your reason for expecting stronger retail sales? What effect on ULC will 20,000,000 low wage workers coupled with the increase in lower wage increase? Either way how can all this possibly lead to lower inflation?
Answer a simple question in your mind - Weren't all these factors you mentioned in play all of this year? Yet, the INFLATION NUMBER HAS DROPPED. So anyone with any bit of common sense applied to this FACT will figure out, CLEARLY all factors influencing inflation isn't being factored in! Otherwise there can't be DOWNWARD pressure on inflation, it should just keep going UP forever! 💁🏻♂️ So extending that common sense, it means there are deflationary forces at play which are counteracting just labour and spending! Stop trying to jump to conclusions and make assumptions basis your preconceived biases! Deal with real facts. Inflation is trending down. When it starts trending up, THEN YOU CAN LOOK FOR REASONS WHY.
I’m here to hijack this conversation and demand that someone explain how it is determined that an overall inflation rate around 2% is consistent with wage inflation that is higher than 2%.
Teach me why. Show your work.
Worker productivity often has nothing to do with workers and is all about consumers.
If consumers have money, revenue is higher and productivity numbers will be higher.
No new workflow needed, no new tech needed, no harder working employees needed.
An increase in worker productivity would be observed, for example, if housing prices drop. Consumers not having to blow as much of their paycheck on mere housing would increase the revenue of companies
Yardeni is the anti-Van Metre.
And Van Metre has been CONSISTENTLY WRONG year after year!
Private Equity doing all this good work buying out plumber's and doctor's practices;) I'll have mine to sell in
Hurray for wealth concentration!
@SigFigNewton you got it!:) It's the Pareto principle - success does compound:)
how do you explain the dow bearish trend against its major correrated pairs.....?
The employer data doesn’t tell you who has 2 or 3 jobs. Not reliable.
What happens when the bric nation abandon the dollar as they are clearly preparing to do
Facts of the matter, that the "recession dorks" just don't want to acknowledge: 1. the US economy is doing well. 2. Inflation is coming down, as the economy revs up because inflation is also strongly influenced by normalisation, supply chain robustness, full scale mass production ramping up, power of technology - these are deflationary forces at work, and clearly in the US, these forces are overpowering job growth, wages, consumer spending! As always, all the "big crash" dorks out there will never factor in the positive data, just keep "crying wolf" at every given opportunity! The recession dorks have been consistently wrong now 3 years running! And what happened about the "yeild curve inversion" that was a surefire ironclad guarantee of a "recession" 😂 Still waiting on that..
The Yield Curve inversion didn't work out due to the massive COVID money printing and the open border situation. However the good times never last forever and the longer they last the more bitter the downturns tend to be.