Відео

Great update! Amazing add to staff - rock star!

Nice job Eric. Good hire Ed. Eric, you need a dog.

Many central banks raised rates together with FED and they already started dropping them. ECB cut rates... Canada cut rates... Switzerland cut rates same as China, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary... Why would anyone think that FED would not cut in this year?

15:05 aaand unemplyoment ticked up to 4.1%. You are really optimistic researchers. We have so so many signs like: 1) inverted yield curve for long time 2) unemployment going up (yes, from low levels, but look at the trend and hiring freeze) 3) autloans and credit cards defaults raising (yes, from low levels, but look at the trend, why would trend change?) 4) overall credit action from private banks halted 5) major slowndowns in other global economies (China, Germany) 6) recent drop in ISM... Of course none of those things guarantee recession and for sure none of them are saying anything about timing. But sirs, there is far bigger risk of recession in US right now when compared to 2 years ago. You can laugh as much as you want from those doomers from 2021, but situation slowly changed, why you chose to ignore it? Im looking at the same data as you and have totally different conclusions. Right now gov. bonds are looking more attractive than stocks, specially with lower inflation and still high yields.

President Biden, Fed Chair Powell and Yellen deserve more credit in turning this economy around since 1/21! Everyone keeps expecting A recession that has not happened! There needs to be more analysis on how bitcoin impacts the economy! It is an invisible monetary item that is not discussed in the money supply.

Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in May

We’re all doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

As per the chart that indicates expeted FFR changes in 12 months isn't it surprising that both times the number stopped going down (into more cuts), it was in accordance with trendlines from early 24 - wouldn't that meant those futures' indicators at those moments are more indications of algos' work rather than the most likely scenario probability?

Hi, def. a great one. I see only inconsistency - why keep the 5400 target, apart from consistency/moderation, if you do predict or indicate in data (both of market predictions and your most likely EOY 2,6% PCED scenario) more than 1 cut and therefore a melt-up (around 20:20)?

looking at all the job mkt indicators and past dynamics it looks much more likely that the path forward is for an acceleration in weakness unless we gat further fiscal boost

people forget about dreaming about lower rates. They're generally going higher from now on because of all the problems and printing to money to pacify those problems. Increasing inflation+generally increasing rates are the future!

You guys ever talk to people who make less than 500k a year? Because the wealthy can handle these rates. they even benefit from them. The working class, more homeless people everyday. Can't get a home. Can't afford a car. Whole economy is built on low rates

Great job, Eric! Enjoyed the presentation!

I do not understand why you have not revised targets when earnings keep increasing at this point and no recession forecast. Ed was bullish beginning of the year at 5400, but this was reached already mid-year. I agree there could be a pullback but I am thinking we will be higher than now. Cisco is not really comparable to NVDA.

Thank you for keeping that calm long-term perspective, free from doom-mongering and clickbait takes.

Definitely a melt up as there are no buyers for LT treasuries…

Fantastic video. Very knowledgeable about a wide variety of subjects and quite measured. My only critique is if you’re using late-‘90s valuations as your primary analog to conclude it’s not too bad now, you should acknowledge you’re way out on a limb with respect to historic valuations. Having said that, somewhat higher valuations make sense because Apple and Google are much better businesses than Exxon and AT&T and deserve higher valuations. Looking forward to your next video.

Great job and thanks for the video.

Thanks. Always look forward to your weekly analysis.

Informative longer term perspective on market valuation. Thanks!

This market is definitely looking frothy already. So we can gain another 20% by 2026. I give that a 40% probability. The consumer is tapped out and going into debt. 78% are living paycheck to paycheck. I give recession in 18 months a 60% probability.

Also thanks for clarification on not commenting on individual stocks - it always seemed out of place here.

My fav slide was that CSCO - NVDA FWD PE overlap:)

Your forward operating earnings for S&P 500 is different to what LSEG is reporting. You are reporting 261.4 and LSEG is reporting 253.5 (lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/TRPR_82221_752.pdf). Your charts say your source is LSEG as well so could you explain the difference?

Duration and rate mismatch continues to wreak havoc on.?

Shades of the Nifty Fifty. Good til it isn’t. Over priced? Discounted hereafter?

I wonder how Mr. Yardeni defines productivity.

Was updating via the cloud a consumer choice, or a requirement? Funny how subscriptions in print were less than today's software subscriptions. Funny. Yeh.

When you show charts, it would help if you increased the size/visibility of the cursor...that small arrow is hard to follow. Overall, however, thanks for your efforts in helping to fill in significant gaps in my economic knowledge.

the best! the best!

My only regret is not finding you guys sooner! Amazing discussion and great insights!

Ed, why is the yield curve still inverted?

Who is Eric? Just curious . Thank you, Ed! You are my go too in chaotic times !

On the increase in auto insurance: For quite a few years the portion of sales that are large trucks and SUVs has increased, but the portion of the in-use fleet of personal vehicles of Americans that is oversized lags these sales numbers. Old cars replaced with new trucks. The cost to ensure American’s vehicles depends on fleet makeup. Note also that it isn’t just about how large your own vehicle is. If you have a bigger thing, yes, it costs more to insure. But also, if everyone in your town is driving a big truck, your vehicle will suffer more damage per crash due to the increased kinetic energy of large vehicles. It takes time, but your auto insurance literally increases when more of your neighbors drive big trucks and SUVs.

July arriving. Unrelated to that, now is a great time to sell.

35 minutes is to long

MAX

A date stamp would be helpful to understand when this video was recorded.

how do you explain the dow bearish trend against its major correrated pairs.....?

Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 15B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..

The data speculated in this video is already released. Seems like this video was recorded a week ago but posted on UA-cam in the last few hours. Dated data.

Thank you for this program! Much appreciated.

Ed six months from now on that last chart..."Look, it's the Roaring 2020s, and we've been below 5% since..."

Worker productivity often has nothing to do with workers and is all about consumers. If consumers have money, revenue is higher and productivity numbers will be higher. No new workflow needed, no new tech needed, no harder working employees needed. An increase in worker productivity would be observed, for example, if housing prices drop. Consumers not having to blow as much of their paycheck on mere housing would increase the revenue of companies

What happens when the bric nation abandon the dollar as they are clearly preparing to do

Facts of the matter, that the "recession dorks" just don't want to acknowledge: 1. the US economy is doing well. 2. Inflation is coming down, as the economy revs up because inflation is also strongly influenced by normalisation, supply chain robustness, full scale mass production ramping up, power of technology - these are deflationary forces at work, and clearly in the US, these forces are overpowering job growth, wages, consumer spending! As always, all the "big crash" dorks out there will never factor in the positive data, just keep "crying wolf" at every given opportunity! The recession dorks have been consistently wrong now 3 years running! And what happened about the "yeild curve inversion" that was a surefire ironclad guarantee of a "recession" 😂 Still waiting on that..

Yardeni is the anti-Van Metre.

The employer data doesn’t tell you who has 2 or 3 jobs. Not reliable.

Mr. Yardeni first you say that you expect inflation to be less than 2% by year end then you show us charts with record personal income and you couple that by stating that you expect strong retail sales ,also you point out that lower wage worker earning are up ( they usually spend more of their income for obvious reasons) - and we have 4% wage inflation. Further you mention the need for additional governmental spending for the flood of migrants. The very same migrants who probably cause the deflationary effect on your beloved unit labor cost. So while the ULC may be deflating the number of laborers is increasing by 20,000,000 in the shortest time ever. Either you assume that they will spend no money and thus contribute nothing to inflation or maybe that is your reason for expecting stronger retail sales? What effect on ULC will 20,000,000 low wage workers coupled with the increase in lower wage increase? Either way how can all this possibly lead to lower inflation?

I wonder if Max thinks were goin to 5600 on the S&P by the end of the year? Or if that would be kinda expensive.