It's cause the core is wrapped up in forwards. We wouldn't even talk like this if it included a dman and a goalie. It's extremely stupid to invest that much money into 1 type of hockey player.
Thank you so much for having this conversation because I've been screaming this for the last 2-3 years and I get destroyed by so many Leaf fans online for having this exact take. It honestly blows my mind that the Leafs management can't see this, along with all these fans. Also really happy you touched on the fact that every other team's core 4 has at least 1 dman and also a goalie in Florida's case. That's a point that almost always seems to get ignored.
Having the courage to walk away from one of the core four would help. Alas, with all 4 of your core four having no move clauses, they have screwed themselves in terms of being able to ice a competitive roster. Especially when you look at their draft capital/prospect pool and realize their defensive prospect pool is very limited.
@@dereklasker5350 Kyle Dubas when GM no doubt screwed the Leafs' cap situation over big time although Brendan Shanahan, the longtime club President, let Dubas do so. Hopefully this offseason GM Treliving will break the AM34-Marner-Nylander-Rielly-Tavares quintet up considering that it has only managed to win one playoff series and is taking up over half of the Leafs' salary cap. Whether said GM will successfully break up that quintet this offseason still remains TBD considering set every member of that quintet has a full no-move clause in effect at least for the coming season.
@@dereklasker5350 I hope any post-Dubas GM of the Leafs will never again assume the NHL salary cap will just go up season after season. Whether Brad Treliving will put that advice of mine into action this off-season still remains TBD, particularly with President Shanahan having claimed in May to have been open to moving of AM34, Marner, Nylander, Rielly and Tavares.
The worst part about it, is that there's no saving grace or reason for optimism. What I mean is... they're not even good at playoff hockey. Let's say being good is being at least 1 point per game. None of them are even considered close. The waste of money garbage JT that fools still defend is barely .6 points per game. For this reason it's inexcusable. If they were actually dominating, you could see the management going, well let's run it back, our horses are still pulling so well. Maybe next year with some tweaks. Meanwhile, they're not even close to being decent, yet they still think they're a small tweak away. And also the stalled or rising cap affects all teams equally, MLSE should stop referencing that as an excuse. (If you over pay for softies, teams that didn't can use the increase on augmenting their team. Rather than papering over a hole in the ground like the way the Leafs always try to do).
This conversation was basically a realization of how inflation works. You can raise the cap all you want; all it does is raise all the contracts numbers.
I think it’s more about the mismanagement of cap allocation. Leafs have allocated a higher percentage of the cap to their top 4 players and its cost them rounding out the roster like other elite teams. I am always shocked at how they can’t leverage their city, amenities/luxuries, and additional sponsorship potential for discounted contracts, like other teams do
@sunnyjoshi4691 ya Toronto messed up but you're missing the point. It's an economy of scale basically. X player was making 10 mil under the current cap but will make 12 mil under new cap bc cap go up. That's what they're saying which is essentially how inflation works. You can raise the cap all you want, the o ly way you're going to gain the system is if you sign ppl before the cap raise and move the player somehow before the renewal is up. Which alleviates your cap in the short run.
@@moodlampActual I agree, but that’s where Toronto screwed up, they bent to every players for AAV and years. Most teams would not have signed these short term deals for the exact reason you laid out. You’re constantly running in place because how fast your salaries are adjusting the inflation of the cap. Canucks threatened trade Pettersson when he tried to do things on his terms, and he eventually caved and signed long term. Previous regime should have signed him to 8 years but they had put themselves in a hard spot with the cap.
Matthews, Nylander and Marner are getting more as they enter their prime, which is irrelevant to the increasing cap space. And Toronto has situated themselves into a uniquely awful situation given that they are paying a higher percentage of the cap to four forwards compared to any team on the list and what they are paying to their top 4 players. So I’m not sure I see how this is an inflation of the cap discussion.
@@moodlampActual No. The players who want to win need to realize they will earn more money in sponsorships after they retire based on the legacy they had and how many cups they won. Being incredibly greedy and demanding money when you don't deserve it like William Nylander does nothing but hold the team back. When you're a millionaire the difference between 9 million and 11 million is very small.
Fire Shanahan! Also, Treliving sucked in Calgary Has made terrible decisions since he arrived... CLEAN HOUSE. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE BRANDON PRIDHAM FIRED!!! The entire organization is garbage rotten, full of losers. Shanahan is LITERALLY a loser.
FIRE SHANAHAN FIRE TRELIVING FIRE PRIDHAM I CAN'T BELIEVE THESE MEN MADE ME HATE THE LEAFS... Special mentions to Marner, Nylander, and Tavares for killing the BEST WINDOW the Leafs ever had to win a cup.... I would do ANYTHING for a second team in Toronto to cheer for instead, a second team to buy merchandise for and go to games....I think I'm done being a Leafs fan.... I just don't like the roster as of 2024... I like Reaves, Reilly, Matthews....this team is complete trash.
Imagine having the biggest brain trust in the NHL and not having an actual brain. The rot of the, we can and we will disease, runs deep within this franchise.
Leafs haven't won since before the moon landing. But have the best attendance, and generate the most money for the league consistently. Why would you EVER win? Vegas, Tampa, Miami, Anaheim, all lose money for the NHL...they need the NHL to prop them up with favorable calls, tax situations and through revenue sharing. The Leafs/Canada winning is NOT what Gary Bettman envisions.
In other words, if Marner refuses to budge on the NMC, then the only way to resolve the core four cap dilemma (because 34 and 88 aren't being moved), however noise-inducing it may be, is to let him walk as a UFA, and reallocate the freed-up money to remake the core by acquiring a bonafide top pair D ... provided such players are actually available.
It's actually a real shame. Marner genuinely wants to play there and yet he is the one being forced to leave. William Nylander is nothing but about himself and he gets overpaid
Steve the calculations and your points from all the facts are the most accurate comments No wonder you are the number Leafs fan from media, I have no clue how they can made comments Mitch stay is an option especially most of team from TSN
I kinda respect the way the Golden Knights work. They're not loyal to their players which sounds like a bad thing, but what's the point in sticking to players that don't get it done? You will end up like the Leafs.
No tax states have probably 4-5 million cap advantage signing FA and it’s showing with past few champs other than COL. Everyone says it doesn’t matter but there’s easily 10 guys on FLA that would need 500k-2m more in Toronto to clear equivalent or even sign in the first place
They make it back trust me. A huge thing people forget about is the value of the US dollar compared to the Canadian dollar. NHL players get paid in US dollars even if they are playing for a Canadian team. The US dollar currently on June 28th is worth $1.37 Canadian dollars. That is a 37% increase in the spending power of their salaries, and I would bet is probably extremely close to the amount they lost in taxes. It all evens out
@@Mr.Thermistor7228 That is not how exchange rates work. If all players are paid in the same currency it is the same, then nobody has a "spending power" advantage. Otherwise, the US players would just convert their US dollars to CAD at the currency exchange on their local corner and POOF! they now have the imaginary "spending power" advantage.
Steve killed it ,with that executive summary of core 4 salary comparisons with other NHL teams that went FURTHER in the playoffs. Math on this subject is clear ,there is definitely a big problem with the leafs core 4 in terms of compensation vs performance
Yea McDavid, Nurse, Drai, and Bouchard is going to be in the same cap structure as the current Leafs are. They have to move one of them and unfortunately, it seems Nurse is immovable.
Don't forget they are like $5 mil in the hole against next season's cap. They tried to cheat the cap by buying the cup this year with tons of post season bonuses. Came back to bite them, oof.
@crushdavis7048 yes but at least Oilers it is split between forward and defense. I still think they can replace Nurse for cheap and have cap space to compete.
After next year our structure is at least balanced. F,F,D,D,D,F,F,F in order of cap hits. Nurse is going to hurt as he’s only one not hitting value even at those numbers….. Except Kane but he’s been hurt 2 years……
It's pretty simple why they keep running it back. Leafs management and specifically Shanahan constantly think they're the smartest people in the room because they read that "Score Takes Care of Itself" book that Adam always mentions. They don't seem to realize that if managing a billion dollar sports team was as easy as reading a book, everyone would do it.
And Leafs ownership has bought into Shanahan being this smart, so they refuse to move on from him despite him clearly setting this team up to be laughed at. This is the kind of thing that should cause a fan revolt to force change, but given how Leafs fans still try to defend the moves, I doubt the fanbase even cares enough to do anything.
I have said the Tavares contract was a problem from the day they signed him… they already had a 1C in Matthews, and $11m is way too much for a 2C, particularly long term with the full NMC that made him immovable. Horrible negotiating by Dubas, particularly if it’s true that JT *really* wanted to come home, he should have taken a bigger discount for that golden NMC. Then there is the cascading effect that this contract set the precedent for the others… and here they are. Had they invested the Tavares money elsewhere (or say… kept Kadri), the fortunes in years past would have likely been different.
@@kevinsargent6282 I feel like Kadri needed the change, badly. I do think you have 2 people over 11 million and it’s a better situation for the Leafs all together, but that’s exactly what Steve’s saying.
@@EveryTimeIDavidI don’t disagree - Kadri probably did need a change and seemed to be the right decision (to let him go) at the time. However in hindsight having him + cap space instead of Tavares probably would have been better. But again, that 20/20 thing…
"How a Ship having passed the Line was driven by storms to the cold Country towards the South Pole; and how from thence she made her course to the tropical Latitude of the Great Pacific Ocean; and of the strange things that befell; and in what manner the Ancyent Marinere came back to his own Country." It's an albatross.
40 ? Its 46,65. Not that far off from 12 per player, it’s crazy (1,35 off). The problem aint the amount of money spent on forwards, or more specifically 4 forwards. The problem is that 1 or arguably none of these forwards are worth the money they are paid. Spending that cash on 4 McDavid, Mackinnon, Kucherov, Pastrnak clones wouldn’t be a problem at all.
The worst part of it all is here we are this long in without one single move! How is Shanahan still here, can anyone please give me at least 1 reason no matter how bad it is?
And Avs fans are crying about Mikko’s contract extension is going to be too expensive for his performance even as a multi year 100+ point player. They’re worried about the rest of the team’s contract hit… I couldn’t imagine being in the Leafs cap situation and trying to round out a solid roster.
The interesting part of this is that all other four fours aren’t just forwards. They have d men in them. Makar, Toews, Fox, and others. There is your difference
The Leafs have perfected the blueprint on how not to ever build a roster. Never throw all money into four players, WITH NMC's because of Injuries and cap space. Recipe for disaster. Almost a decade worth of proof at this point, wow. With the current roster construction the Leafs have literally zero chance of suddenly pushing through to the finals. Leafs have almost $10 million less to use towards roster construction than every other professional hockey team. This team unfortunately needs a full rebuild to get past this.
The reason why the leafs continue to get themselves into these situations, is because of universal payback for the sins of Harold Ballard. They will finally win the cup when the universe forgives them.
The reality is that both Marner and Tavares have to go to reset the cap distribution. Whether that be trades or straight up walking it's the only way to balance it for the future
To be fair, both Matthews and Nylander are just starting new contracts. Some of the other teams you are comparing to will get hit with significant increases when their contracts come due in the next year or two. That will make the core four for each team a lot closer than they are now.
The closest one to a goal a game in the playoffs lately has been Nylander. Marner is borderline nonexistent in the elimination games. You can't want #2 money and not deliver #2 results.
Heard Florida was thinking about shipping Ekblad to free up cap space. If they can somehow eat most of the salary, the leafs shoukd ship marner or tavares for that and try to retain a large chunk of the salary. Difficult to pull off, but ekblad would definitely be the most valuable right hand defenseman on the trade market
@adamjanks4966 I don't disagree that flordia will let him go, I just don't think there looking to replace him with anything the leafs can provide besides picks
Great show, one of your best. My opinion of the Leaf's top players; Mathews and Tavares are guys that go all out to the dirty spots where pain awaits you to make a play. Tavares is showing his age but is still a great player, rolling along at .93 points per game, Mathews is at 1.15 pts. per game. The guy people want to hate on, is at 1.10 PPG and the guy that can barely check his coat is .875 PPG. The reason the TML fail in the post season is they have no D men of a high enough caliber. Nylander is not a player for the play offs. He is the one that should be traded for a Premium D man.
The issue isn't the money as much as what the money is attached to. If you have that cap hit locked in to 1C, 2C, 1D, G you are more than happy to do that. Having it all in forwards and having to scrape the barrel behind that is worst case scenario. As much as people clown Edmonton for the Hall-Larsson trade. They got rid of a winger and brought in a guy who played top line D beside Klefbom and was a huge part of their success making it back to the playoffs. He wasn't a flashy name, but he was what that team needed. I mean look at the Ekholm trade. Offloaded stuff to get much needed help on the backend and it completely changed the team. If the Leafs can bring in strong D everyone is gonna be better for it
I've been saying it since a few years. You can't win with 50+ % cap space spent on four players. The leafs have nice penthouses on top of the their tower but the foundations gives up when there's a small storm.
What they did at the draft last night had me smashing my head against the wall. I'll preface this by saying, that I don't mind trading down a bit to gain more picks. But, trading your pick and then having the team you trade with draft the player you should have drafted (Stian Solberg) with your pick, is such a Leaf move. It would have been bad enough if it had ended there.....but it didn't. They go on to draft a shot blocking defenceman at #31 that they possibly could have gotten at #58. I'm running out of adjectives to describe this franchise
The tough thing about the Leafs is the results are very misleading. Every season we go to game 7 and lose by a single goal against a cup contender team while dealing with key injuries (Woll, Knies, Matthews, Nylander etc etc). A few breaks in the Leafs direction and we're not talking about this because they had an Oilers type playoff run. They are closer than people think.
Every other team is structured with either two D, or a goalie and a defenseman. The leafs are at least 9mil higher and have none of those positions filled in their top 4. The Leafs are built terribly and will either lose Marner and Tavares for nothing, or be back in a very similar position afterwards if we retain all 4. It's not a successful roster. This nonsense that one of them will suddenly produce in the playoffs is not even worth talking about, we've had eight years and nothing to back that up, that's delusional hope.
Agreed I was thinking about the defenseman issue and agree that atleast one should be core four. Leafs can’t win depending on goaltending and letting the rest ride. One has got to go for a defenseman.
4 guys making 11 million or more only team in the nhl this is why they have no cup team not balanced not much money remaining to get no 1 goalie a top 4 d man and good wingers
I agree however a lot of the comparisons you made have contracts coming up and those teams will be in leaf situations like Edmonton, also a lot of the other contracts were signed a while ago and the leafs contracts were just extended. And the knights abused the ltir worse to pick up the people you mentioned knowing stone would come off and have an impact , Matt Murray and muzzin was not going to come back and play or make an impact
Berube is a different factor here though...not saying the strucutre of the cap isn't flawed, just saying there are some reasons to think things could be different, it's not just blind faith. He may have said, i want to keep marner, i have big plans for how to use him. I dunno.
I said this exact thing about the amount of cap the Golf 4 take up as % of cap last year. And the % goes up this year is that not the defintion of insanity ?
Will Tanev be LTIR eligible from say 38-40 years old? I just figured he'd retire and the Leafs would eat the cap hit for those seasons. Seems like cap circumvention to allow them to just place him on LTIR at 38 and move on.
I think you’re missing the biggest point. ALL the other teams best players sign 8 year extensions. Team friendly or not, those signings on an improving superstar, are always going to look like a good deal in the last 2-3 years of the contract. Matthews relatively short contracts are killing the team. I would bet that by the end of his career, his career earnings will be way way higher than any player in history
To me, the worst thing about the Leafs top 4 is that there's no defence in there. How are you supposed to support your goalie (who's HEAVILY underpaid) when you get almost nothing, and in front of you there are four players who burn >50% of the salary cap?
I've been saying this for years. And as someone who laughs his ass off every time I see Matthews almost in tears after the first round. When you have almost 50% of the cap wrapped up in 4 players (2 of which couldn't produce at their pay level anyway), the team will never be successful. That's just the simple reality of it. Teams that win are teams with discount contracts.
Tbh the best thing to do here is wait until Tavares is off the books. Marner has a nmc and even if he’s willing to waive it. What team is he willing to waive it for and will the return be worth it?
One thing I will always give Steve props for is as much as he hates Boston because there the leafs kryptonite but he’s always talking that organization up and how we do things which I must say is breath of fresh air compared to the rest of SN, leafs need to make a change they need to lose one of those forwards and load there D up, Boston wins because we have goaltending and defence and our forwards play defensive minded hockey, Florida this year was built like a 2010-2015 bruins team as much as I hate them they were hard to play
I love every time they bring up the core 4, but don't involve Morgan Reilly. I understand and agree that his contract is the best value (now), but he's still at something like 8.5%. So, you're top 5 paid players are taking up 60+%.
Glad Adam made the point about defense because that's the first thing that stuck out to me as well. Steve is 100% right here and anyone that disagrees has their blinders on.
I don't know why people think the playoffs were a disappointment. Regular Season = 10th overall. Playoffs = eliminated in 1st round in Game7 in Overtime. Seems like it is very consistent with what you should expect from a 10th place team. In other words, the problems that were in evidence during the season (flakey goaltending, weak defence, lack of scoring depth) showed up in the playoffs. My suggestion? address the flakey goaltending, weak defence....
Thank you Steve for giving the cold hard factual numbers. The cap is going up next year, and even more of the cap percentage will be spent on the Core 4. This is why Marner needs to go. It's the numbers. They cant add any legit blue liner or depth pieces when they're going to have even less avaialbe cap space than before.
I think your comment should be the Leaf's core 4 in Toronto is equal to the 5 or 6 or 7 on other teams. The Leafs 46 653 000 is equal to say Rangers as an example difference of 9 010 143 that means the Rangers get Kreider and Lafreniere for the same as the Leafs top 4...
I know this isn’t news to anybody but it’s sad how the whole “we can and we will” attitude grossly unbalanced the roster and a failure to address that will continue to make the Leafs suffer. Tavares coming off soon will be huge, but they had a chance to get several complimentary pieces with a trade a long, long time ago.
Wicked breakdown of the realities of this team. I can only say this… how is it possible that we didn’t get here a few years ago? The signs of this have been there for a very long time. These guys are just NOT those other core four groups you listed. The heart/drive is just nearly non-existent with this group. They’re a joke really. And paying these guys what Dubas did (after winning f’ing nothing) will go down as one of the worst mistakes in franchise history (and that’s saying a lot).
With the amount of cash Leafs are using on their Core Four, most other teams would be able to fit their Core Five in that, some probably even their Core Six.
Stephenson is going to get 5. The issue is Stephenson isn't a second line center. He's a third. What Lindholm gets is going to be more reflective of what a high end 2c get. It's going to be 7.5 to 8 m. 100%. The saving grace stuff will be a guy like Shane Pinto who's a 2c on most teams and Ottawa is playing hardball with. He wants 5x5 they are offering him like 3m at 2 years. Either way he'll be a bargain 2c on most teams. On his team he'll be a 3c but on most teams he'd be a 2c. On the Bruins he'd be a 1c.
Might be the best Dangle I've seen....obviously a guy that is passsionate about his team....but a realist when looking at the facts.
It's cause the core is wrapped up in forwards. We wouldn't even talk like this if it included a dman and a goalie. It's extremely stupid to invest that much money into 1 type of hockey player.
Dubas is such an idiot for building such a poorly balanced team and refusing to adjust his strategy.
who don't like to score when they need to
@eriklakeland3857 funny that Dubas is gone and they are still doing the same thing. Almost like Shanahan was, and still is, in charge.
@@csolivais1979The 2022 Toronto Maple Leafs was the best team in the 21st century
Shanny has been there for 5 head coaches and 4 GM's......wtf are we doing?
We toronto team don’t fire anybody because we don’t like hurting no one’s feeling
Thank you so much for having this conversation because I've been screaming this for the last 2-3 years and I get destroyed by so many Leaf fans online for having this exact take. It honestly blows my mind that the Leafs management can't see this, along with all these fans.
Also really happy you touched on the fact that every other team's core 4 has at least 1 dman and also a goalie in Florida's case. That's a point that almost always seems to get ignored.
Having the courage to walk away from one of the core four would help.
Alas, with all 4 of your core four having no move clauses, they have screwed themselves in terms of being able to ice a competitive roster. Especially when you look at their draft capital/prospect pool and realize their defensive prospect pool is very limited.
No move clause is really limited options move clause.
@@dereklasker5350the only recent mid-level effective player would be bertuzzi and domi. But we can’t even retain these guys. Can also include Hyman,
@@dereklasker5350 Kyle Dubas when GM no doubt screwed the Leafs' cap situation over big time although Brendan Shanahan, the longtime club President, let Dubas do so. Hopefully this offseason GM Treliving will break the AM34-Marner-Nylander-Rielly-Tavares quintet up considering that it has only managed to win one playoff series and is taking up over half of the Leafs' salary cap. Whether said GM will successfully break up that quintet this offseason still remains TBD considering set every member of that quintet has a full no-move clause in effect at least for the coming season.
@@dereklasker5350 I hope any post-Dubas GM of the Leafs will never again assume the NHL salary cap will just go up season after season. Whether Brad Treliving will put that advice of mine into action this off-season still remains TBD, particularly with President Shanahan having claimed in May to have been open to moving of AM34, Marner, Nylander, Rielly and Tavares.
The worst part about it, is that there's no saving grace or reason for optimism. What I mean is... they're not even good at playoff hockey. Let's say being good is being at least 1 point per game. None of them are even considered close. The waste of money garbage JT that fools still defend is barely .6 points per game. For this reason it's inexcusable. If they were actually dominating, you could see the management going, well let's run it back, our horses are still pulling so well. Maybe next year with some tweaks. Meanwhile, they're not even close to being decent, yet they still think they're a small tweak away. And also the stalled or rising cap affects all teams equally, MLSE should stop referencing that as an excuse. (If you over pay for softies, teams that didn't can use the increase on augmenting their team. Rather than papering over a hole in the ground like the way the Leafs always try to do).
This conversation was basically a realization of how inflation works. You can raise the cap all you want; all it does is raise all the contracts numbers.
I think it’s more about the mismanagement of cap allocation. Leafs have allocated a higher percentage of the cap to their top 4 players and its cost them rounding out the roster like other elite teams.
I am always shocked at how they can’t leverage their city, amenities/luxuries, and additional sponsorship potential for discounted contracts, like other teams do
@sunnyjoshi4691 ya Toronto messed up but you're missing the point. It's an economy of scale basically. X player was making 10 mil under the current cap but will make 12 mil under new cap bc cap go up. That's what they're saying which is essentially how inflation works. You can raise the cap all you want, the o ly way you're going to gain the system is if you sign ppl before the cap raise and move the player somehow before the renewal is up. Which alleviates your cap in the short run.
@@moodlampActual I agree, but that’s where Toronto screwed up, they bent to every players for AAV and years. Most teams would not have signed these short term deals for the exact reason you laid out. You’re constantly running in place because how fast your salaries are adjusting the inflation of the cap. Canucks threatened trade Pettersson when he tried to do things on his terms, and he eventually caved and signed long term. Previous regime should have signed him to 8 years but they had put themselves in a hard spot with the cap.
Matthews, Nylander and Marner are getting more as they enter their prime, which is irrelevant to the increasing cap space.
And Toronto has situated themselves into a uniquely awful situation given that they are paying a higher percentage of the cap to four forwards compared to any team on the list and what they are paying to their top 4 players.
So I’m not sure I see how this is an inflation of the cap discussion.
@@moodlampActual No. The players who want to win need to realize they will earn more money in sponsorships after they retire based on the legacy they had and how many cups they won. Being incredibly greedy and demanding money when you don't deserve it like William Nylander does nothing but hold the team back. When you're a millionaire the difference between 9 million and 11 million is very small.
Shanahan plan figured out by Steve, thank you Steve for exposing why he should be fired.
Fire Shanahan!
Also, Treliving sucked in Calgary
Has made terrible decisions since he arrived...
CLEAN HOUSE. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE BRANDON PRIDHAM FIRED!!!
The entire organization is garbage rotten, full of losers. Shanahan is LITERALLY a loser.
FIRE SHANAHAN
FIRE TRELIVING
FIRE PRIDHAM
I CAN'T BELIEVE THESE MEN MADE ME HATE THE LEAFS...
Special mentions to Marner, Nylander, and Tavares for killing the BEST WINDOW the Leafs ever had to win a cup....
I would do ANYTHING for a second team in Toronto to cheer for instead, a second team to buy merchandise for and go to games....I think I'm done being a Leafs fan....
I just don't like the roster as of 2024...
I like Reaves, Reilly, Matthews....this team is complete trash.
Buddy has been here for 5 head coaches and 4 GM's.....at what point? lol
Imagine having the biggest brain trust in the NHL and not having an actual brain.
The rot of the, we can and we will disease, runs deep within this franchise.
Leafs haven't won since before the moon landing. But have the best attendance, and generate the most money for the league consistently.
Why would you EVER win?
Vegas, Tampa, Miami, Anaheim, all lose money for the NHL...they need the NHL to prop them up with favorable calls, tax situations and through revenue sharing.
The Leafs/Canada winning is NOT what Gary Bettman envisions.
It's the president of them. He needed to be gone last year WITH Marner...im still seething over that
"Half a Century of Failure" Urinatingtree?
Yes, the Leafs have cap issues.. but have you ever thought of nuh-uh
As a Habs fan I don't see any problems with the Leafs cap structure, everything seems to be on track. 😝😝😝😝
Same a bruins fan:p we’re expecting a bruins win in game 7 vs leafs next year:)
In other words, if Marner refuses to budge on the NMC, then the only way to resolve the core four cap dilemma (because 34 and 88 aren't being moved), however noise-inducing it may be, is to let him walk as a UFA, and reallocate the freed-up money to remake the core by acquiring a bonafide top pair D ... provided such players are actually available.
That's almost surely what will happen, unless Treliving goes crazy and offers him another big contract during the season.
It's actually a real shame. Marner genuinely wants to play there and yet he is the one being forced to leave. William Nylander is nothing but about himself and he gets overpaid
@@LizzieMcguire69 Playoff Perfomance beats everything else
@@LizzieMcguire69It sucks but the Willy is the one who produced. They can't afford to move him
Or sign him then use Tavares money wtff
I'm from the future, we sign Domi, Woll and Tanev, and we throw in OEL, and some other guys too.
The other good teams have a real d man or a top goalie
Leafs have neither
Finally someone breaks down leafs situation properly
Steve the calculations and your points from all the facts are the most accurate comments No wonder you are the number Leafs fan from media, I have no clue how they can made comments Mitch stay is an option especially most of team from TSN
that was a great segment!! entertaining and feel like I learned something about hockey analysis :)
I still say, im very interested in what an Austin Mathews trade might bring.
He has term on his contract but I am sure that the cost to buy his NMC will be high and that goes against the cap.
Best video I’ve ever seen, great work
This is sad….it looks like they have to waste another season (prime Matthews too) to get to next season before they can even start to retool.
You have to know when to fold your cards.
Brendan learned blackjack from Jake the Snake Roberts.
"You wanna play 21? I've got 22"
also paying Tavares 11 mil to churn butter
I kinda respect the way the Golden Knights work. They're not loyal to their players which sounds like a bad thing, but what's the point in sticking to players that don't get it done? You will end up like the Leafs.
Thanks Brendan and Kyle. Why is Shanahan still employed???
No tax states have probably 4-5 million cap advantage signing FA and it’s showing with past few champs other than COL. Everyone says it doesn’t matter but there’s easily 10 guys on FLA that would need 500k-2m more in Toronto to clear equivalent or even sign in the first place
And even Colorado is a relatively low tax state (which is obviously much more than nothing, but nothing close to what things look like in Canada)
They make it back trust me. A huge thing people forget about is the value of the US dollar compared to the Canadian dollar. NHL players get paid in US dollars even if they are playing for a Canadian team. The US dollar currently on June 28th is worth $1.37 Canadian dollars. That is a 37% increase in the spending power of their salaries, and I would bet is probably extremely close to the amount they lost in taxes. It all evens out
@@Cajanek026 Colorado also won with MacKinnon on a bargain deal. They're going to have a harder time now that he's making $12m.
@@Mr.Thermistor7228 That is not how exchange rates work. If all players are paid in the same currency it is the same, then nobody has a "spending power" advantage. Otherwise, the US players would just convert their US dollars to CAD at the currency exchange on their local corner and POOF! they now have the imaginary "spending power" advantage.
According to Capfriendly, $11 million in Ontario is like $8.5 in Florida.
Steve killed it ,with that executive summary of core 4 salary comparisons with other NHL teams that went FURTHER in the playoffs.
Math on this subject is clear ,there is definitely a big problem with the leafs core 4 in terms of compensation vs performance
You should rename the channel to Leaf Hockey-Rant.
Cap goes up and the Leafs get worse .... 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Nylander alone went from 6.9 to like 12mil lol no cap increase for leafs til next year when it will go up again and tavares gets pay cut
Throw in Morgan Reilly and 5 guys take up 61.6% of the cap.
Exactly what I was thinking
As an oiler fan this makes me worried for the future
Yea McDavid, Nurse, Drai, and Bouchard is going to be in the same cap structure as the current Leafs are. They have to move one of them and unfortunately, it seems Nurse is immovable.
Don't forget they are like $5 mil in the hole against next season's cap. They tried to cheat the cap by buying the cup this year with tons of post season bonuses. Came back to bite them, oof.
@@OWlsfordshire at least Brown being great in the playoffs helps soften the blow
@crushdavis7048 yes but at least Oilers it is split between forward and defense. I still think they can replace Nurse for cheap and have cap space to compete.
After next year our structure is at least balanced. F,F,D,D,D,F,F,F in order of cap hits. Nurse is going to hurt as he’s only one not hitting value even at those numbers…..
Except Kane but he’s been hurt 2 years……
It's pretty simple why they keep running it back. Leafs management and specifically Shanahan constantly think they're the smartest people in the room because they read that "Score Takes Care of Itself" book that Adam always mentions.
They don't seem to realize that if managing a billion dollar sports team was as easy as reading a book, everyone would do it.
And Leafs ownership has bought into Shanahan being this smart, so they refuse to move on from him despite him clearly setting this team up to be laughed at. This is the kind of thing that should cause a fan revolt to force change, but given how Leafs fans still try to defend the moves, I doubt the fanbase even cares enough to do anything.
Well though out and explained
I like Tavares, and I'm happy he gets to live his dream, but that contract is an anchor.
I have said the Tavares contract was a problem from the day they signed him… they already had a 1C in Matthews, and $11m is way too much for a 2C, particularly long term with the full NMC that made him immovable. Horrible negotiating by Dubas, particularly if it’s true that JT *really* wanted to come home, he should have taken a bigger discount for that golden NMC. Then there is the cascading effect that this contract set the precedent for the others… and here they are.
Had they invested the Tavares money elsewhere (or say… kept Kadri), the fortunes in years past would have likely been different.
@@kevinsargent6282 I feel like Kadri needed the change, badly. I do think you have 2 people over 11 million and it’s a better situation for the Leafs all together, but that’s exactly what Steve’s saying.
@@EveryTimeIDavidI don’t disagree - Kadri probably did need a change and seemed to be the right decision (to let him go) at the time. However in hindsight having him + cap space instead of Tavares probably would have been better. But again, that 20/20 thing…
"How a Ship having passed the Line was driven by storms to the cold Country towards the South Pole; and how from thence she made her course to the tropical Latitude of the Great Pacific Ocean; and of the strange things that befell; and in what manner the Ancyent Marinere came back to his own Country."
It's an albatross.
There are far too many Leafs fans polishing brass on the Titanic. Theyre not below decks where the water's in the boiler rooms.
40 million for 4 guys. Recipe for disaster.
And less available for anybody else. And tavares is cursed.
If only every fan in the league warned them as they were all being signed
40 for 4 guys isn't the issue as much as 40 to 4 forwards. Florida had 37.5 to Barkov, Tkachuk, Ekblad and Bob.
40 ? Its 46,65.
Not that far off from 12 per player, it’s crazy (1,35 off).
The problem aint the amount of money spent on forwards, or more specifically 4 forwards. The problem is that 1 or arguably none of these forwards are worth the money they are paid.
Spending that cash on 4 McDavid, Mackinnon, Kucherov, Pastrnak clones wouldn’t be a problem at all.
The worst part of it all is here we are this long in without one single move!
How is Shanahan still here, can anyone please give me at least 1 reason no matter how bad it is?
And Avs fans are crying about Mikko’s contract extension is going to be too expensive for his performance even as a multi year 100+ point player. They’re worried about the rest of the team’s contract hit… I couldn’t imagine being in the Leafs cap situation and trying to round out a solid roster.
You stop Matthew or Nylander in the playoffs no one scores because players not good enough to take over the slack
Steve is always spot on
Have to be to ride in a helicopter to work
The interesting part of this is that all other four fours aren’t just forwards. They have d men in them. Makar, Toews, Fox, and others. There is your difference
The Leafs have perfected the blueprint on how not to ever build a roster. Never throw all money into four players, WITH NMC's because of Injuries and cap space. Recipe for disaster. Almost a decade worth of proof at this point, wow. With the current roster construction the Leafs have literally zero chance of suddenly pushing through to the finals. Leafs have almost $10 million less to use towards roster construction than every other professional hockey team. This team unfortunately needs a full rebuild to get past this.
The reason why the leafs continue to get themselves into these situations, is because of universal payback for the sins of Harold Ballard. They will finally win the cup when the universe forgives them.
Another good stat to look at was EDM had 5 players over 10 points, FLA had 11 players over 10 points, EDM is a top heavy team just like TML lol hmmm.
Eckholm had 10 points and they had another 5 guys with 8-10 points.
Your argument carries very little weight
Winning is half the battle 💪
The reality is that both Marner and Tavares have to go to reset the cap distribution. Whether that be trades or straight up walking it's the only way to balance it for the future
To be fair, both Matthews and Nylander are just starting new contracts. Some of the other teams you are comparing to will get hit with significant increases when their contracts come due in the next year or two. That will make the core four for each team a lot closer than they are now.
The closest one to a goal a game in the playoffs lately has been Nylander. Marner is borderline nonexistent in the elimination games. You can't want #2 money and not deliver #2 results.
That's great and all Steve, but have you thought about running it back for the 9th time?
I think Tavares would be willing to take a cheap deal to stay.
Heard Florida was thinking about shipping Ekblad to free up cap space. If they can somehow eat most of the salary, the leafs shoukd ship marner or tavares for that and try to retain a large chunk of the salary. Difficult to pull off, but ekblad would definitely be the most valuable right hand defenseman on the trade market
Florida, a defensive team, is not gonna trade one of their best defensemen for non producing, overpaid, top 6 linemen, imo. . . .
@@schustererik83 not even a leafs fan but ekblad is actually hella overpaid after his injury he is not a top pairing d man anymore
@adamjanks4966 I don't disagree that flordia will let him go, I just don't think there looking to replace him with anything the leafs can provide besides picks
Great show, one of your best. My opinion of the Leaf's top players; Mathews and Tavares are guys that go all out to the dirty spots where pain awaits you to make a play. Tavares is showing his age but is still a great player, rolling along at .93 points per game, Mathews is at 1.15 pts. per game. The guy people want to hate on, is at 1.10 PPG and the guy that can barely check his coat is .875 PPG. The reason the TML fail in the post season is they have no D men of a high enough caliber. Nylander is not a player for the play offs. He is the one that should be traded for a Premium D man.
The issue isn't the money as much as what the money is attached to.
If you have that cap hit locked in to 1C, 2C, 1D, G you are more than happy to do that.
Having it all in forwards and having to scrape the barrel behind that is worst case scenario.
As much as people clown Edmonton for the Hall-Larsson trade. They got rid of a winger and brought in a guy who played top line D beside Klefbom and was a huge part of their success making it back to the playoffs. He wasn't a flashy name, but he was what that team needed. I mean look at the Ekholm trade. Offloaded stuff to get much needed help on the backend and it completely changed the team.
If the Leafs can bring in strong D everyone is gonna be better for it
Trade one of them. Take the best offer to restructure on the fly. Best to find a stud D-man
They all have full no movement clauses. I highly doubt any team that they would be willing to go to has the cap space to take them.
I've been saying it since a few years. You can't win with 50+ % cap space spent on four players. The leafs have nice penthouses on top of the their tower but the foundations gives up when there's a small storm.
What they did at the draft last night had me smashing my head against the wall.
I'll preface this by saying, that I don't mind trading down a bit to gain more picks.
But, trading your pick and then having the team you trade with draft the player you should have drafted (Stian Solberg) with your pick, is such a Leaf move.
It would have been bad enough if it had ended there.....but it didn't.
They go on to draft a shot blocking defenceman at #31 that they possibly could have gotten at #58.
I'm running out of adjectives to describe this franchise
The tough thing about the Leafs is the results are very misleading. Every season we go to game 7 and lose by a single goal against a cup contender team while dealing with key injuries (Woll, Knies, Matthews, Nylander etc etc). A few breaks in the Leafs direction and we're not talking about this because they had an Oilers type playoff run. They are closer than people think.
Every other team is structured with either two D, or a goalie and a defenseman. The leafs are at least 9mil higher and have none of those positions filled in their top 4. The Leafs are built terribly and will either lose Marner and Tavares for nothing, or be back in a very similar position afterwards if we retain all 4. It's not a successful roster. This nonsense that one of them will suddenly produce in the playoffs is not even worth talking about, we've had eight years and nothing to back that up, that's delusional hope.
Agreed I was thinking about the defenseman issue and agree that atleast one should be core four. Leafs can’t win depending on goaltending and letting the rest ride. One has got to go for a defenseman.
Truth and facts 💯
4 guys making 11 million or more only team in the nhl this is why they have no cup team not balanced not much money remaining to get no 1 goalie a top 4 d man and good wingers
An item to notice is that the core 4s for every other team include D.
The players themselves are the problem. If they played up to those contracts in the playoffs like McDavid did, the Leafs would be fine.
Yea, well, it's harder for Toronto because Toronto's bottom 6 scares absolutely no one. You just shut down Matthew's and Nylander and you win.
There is no Stanley Cup situation for the Leafs at all!!!!!!
Or any other Canadian team.
May as well head to Sphere for some Deadco!
How long's it taken you to work this out?!
I agree however a lot of the comparisons you made have contracts coming up and those teams will be in leaf situations like Edmonton, also a lot of the other contracts were signed a while ago and the leafs contracts were just extended. And the knights abused the ltir worse to pick up the people you mentioned knowing stone would come off and have an impact , Matt Murray and muzzin was not going to come back and play or make an impact
As an outside fan, not negative against Toronto in any way…
They will NEVER win a cup with this “core 4”. No chance.
Berube is a different factor here though...not saying the strucutre of the cap isn't flawed, just saying there are some reasons to think things could be different, it's not just blind faith. He may have said, i want to keep marner, i have big plans for how to use him. I dunno.
I’d like to see an update to this video after free agency.
I said this exact thing about the amount of cap the Golf 4 take up as % of cap last year.
And the % goes up this year is that not the defintion of insanity ?
Will Tanev be LTIR eligible from say 38-40 years old? I just figured he'd retire and the Leafs would eat the cap hit for those seasons. Seems like cap circumvention to allow them to just place him on LTIR at 38 and move on.
Gotta do something about steve's ghost of to the right side of the screen. Tilt the screen or angle the camera differently. Please
Surprised no mention of Reilly’s contract. Might be worse than Tavares
I think you’re missing the biggest point. ALL the other teams best players sign 8 year extensions. Team friendly or not, those signings on an improving superstar, are always going to look like a good deal in the last 2-3 years of the contract. Matthews relatively short contracts are killing the team. I would bet that by the end of his career, his career earnings will be way way higher than any player in history
Steve keeps asking who's core 4 youd rather have. At this point id rather have the london knights core 4 than these choke artists in Toronto
2024-2025 Montréal Canadien core 4 : #31 Carey Price (G) 10,5 M$ , #14 Nick Suzuki (C) 7,875 M$ #22 Cole Caufield(LW) 7,85 M$ #11 Brandon Gallagher(RW) (6,5 M$) 32,825 M$
2025-2026 Montréal Canadien core 4 : #31 Carey Price (G) 10,5 M$ , #14 Nick Suzuki (C) 7,875 M$ #22 Cole Caufield(LW) 7,85 M$ #20 Juraj Slafkovskỳ(RW) 7,6 M$ = 33,925 M$
Warms my heart seeing Leafs fans panicking future seasons 😂 Love you guys. Great, great sporting entertainment.
To me, the worst thing about the Leafs top 4 is that there's no defence in there. How are you supposed to support your goalie (who's HEAVILY underpaid) when you get almost nothing, and in front of you there are four players who burn >50% of the salary cap?
I've been saying this for years. And as someone who laughs his ass off every time I see Matthews almost in tears after the first round. When you have almost 50% of the cap wrapped up in 4 players (2 of which couldn't produce at their pay level anyway), the team will never be successful. That's just the simple reality of it. Teams that win are teams with discount contracts.
Marner needs to go for solid right-handed D men
Tbh the best thing to do here is wait until Tavares is off the books. Marner has a nmc and even if he’s willing to waive it. What team is he willing to waive it for and will the return be worth it?
One thing I will always give Steve props for is as much as he hates Boston because there the leafs kryptonite but he’s always talking that organization up and how we do things which I must say is breath of fresh air compared to the rest of SN, leafs need to make a change they need to lose one of those forwards and load there D up, Boston wins because we have goaltending and defence and our forwards play defensive minded hockey, Florida this year was built like a 2010-2015 bruins team as much as I hate them they were hard to play
Tavares needs to take a hometown discount.
Yeah, while the CRA breaks a bilateral agreement re: bonus paid when he was signed. He may want to just get the hell out of the tax jurisdiction.
over paid losers , you spelled it out so clearly
I love every time they bring up the core 4, but don't involve Morgan Reilly. I understand and agree that his contract is the best value (now), but he's still at something like 8.5%. So, you're top 5 paid players are taking up 60+%.
If it’s a $92.5M salary cap in 2 years, there needs to be another lockout. Contracts need to come down again.
Who's the back up goalie ? As much as I think Woll is the guy but injuries could be an issue
Glad Adam made the point about defense because that's the first thing that stuck out to me as well. Steve is 100% right here and anyone that disagrees has their blinders on.
I don't know why people think the playoffs were a disappointment. Regular Season = 10th overall. Playoffs = eliminated in 1st round in Game7 in Overtime. Seems like it is very consistent with what you should expect from a 10th place team. In other words, the problems that were in evidence during the season (flakey goaltending, weak defence, lack of scoring depth) showed up in the playoffs. My suggestion? address the flakey goaltending, weak defence....
Thank you Steve for giving the cold hard factual numbers. The cap is going up next year, and even more of the cap percentage will be spent on the Core 4.
This is why Marner needs to go. It's the numbers. They cant add any legit blue liner or depth pieces when they're going to have even less avaialbe cap space than before.
It’s true, we criticize our favourite teams but if they prove us wrong, we are glad!
They NEED a top D man and a top A goalie. That won't happen with these garbage contracts
Did all the no move clauses already kick in?
Evan Bouchard same level as Cale Makar? Points yes, but other stuff no.
After this last season the gap isn't nearly as big as you think it is
I think your comment should be the Leaf's core 4 in Toronto is equal to the 5 or 6 or 7 on other teams. The Leafs 46 653 000 is equal to say Rangers as an example difference of 9 010 143 that means the Rangers get Kreider and Lafreniere for the same as the Leafs top 4...
I know this isn’t news to anybody but it’s sad how the whole “we can and we will” attitude grossly unbalanced the roster and a failure to address that will continue to make the Leafs suffer. Tavares coming off soon will be huge, but they had a chance to get several complimentary pieces with a trade a long, long time ago.
Wicked breakdown of the realities of this team. I can only say this… how is it possible that we didn’t get here a few years ago? The signs of this have been there for a very long time. These guys are just NOT those other core four groups you listed. The heart/drive is just nearly non-existent with this group. They’re a joke really. And paying these guys what Dubas did (after winning f’ing nothing) will go down as one of the worst mistakes in franchise history (and that’s saying a lot).
They better not think about paying Tavares 6 million...he is worth 3 max
With the amount of cash Leafs are using on their Core Four, most other teams would be able to fit their Core Five in that, some probably even their Core Six.
Anyone in the NHL could’ve told you this would happen after they signed half their cap space to 4 guys 😂
Stephenson is going to get 5. The issue is Stephenson isn't a second line center. He's a third. What Lindholm gets is going to be more reflective of what a high end 2c get. It's going to be 7.5 to 8 m. 100%. The saving grace stuff will be a guy like Shane Pinto who's a 2c on most teams and Ottawa is playing hardball with. He wants 5x5 they are offering him like 3m at 2 years. Either way he'll be a bargain 2c on most teams. On his team he'll be a 3c but on most teams he'd be a 2c. On the Bruins he'd be a 1c.
Toront has to pay much because of taxes, if you make 11 in Toronto it’s like 6-7 in Florida and Vegas
Marner if he played like a man instead of a boy he will be a force to be reckoned with